According to the combined predictions of Gold Derby users as of this writing, “Appropriate” is the frontrunner to win Best Play Revival at this year’s Tony Awards with 27/20 odds. In second place is “Purlie Victorious,” which has 43/20 odds. Our odds are also currently predicting both shows to win two acting awards. So could Best Play Revival be a closer race than people think? It’s worth noting that “Purlie’s” director is on a winning streak that we mustn’t ignore.
Looking at our forecasts across all races, “Appropriate” is the frontrunner for Best Actress in a Play (Sarah Paulson), Best Featured Actor in a Play (Corey Stoll) and Best Scenic Design of a Play. “Purlie Victorious” is the frontrunner for Best Actor in a Play (Leslie Odom Jr.) and Best Featured Actress in a Play (Kara Young). The latter was helmed by Kenny Leon, whose last four productions nominated for Best Play Revival managed to win.
In 2010 he helmed a remounting of August Wilson‘s “Fences.” It ended up winning three Tonys for Best Play Revival, Best Actor in a Play (Denzel Washington) and Best Actress in a Play (Viola Davis). In 2014 Leon re-teamed with Washington for a new production of Lorraine Hansberry‘s “A Raisin in the Sun.” Experts that year thought the race for Best Play Revival was going to come down to “The Glass Menagerie” and “Twelfth Night.” Yet “Raisin” overperformed by not only winning that category, but also Best Featured Actress in a Play (Sophie Okonedo) and Best Direction of a Play (Leon).
In 2020 he helmed the main stem premiere of Charles Fuller‘s “A Soldier’s Play.” When the long delayed Tonys finally took place following the COVID-19 pandemic, it was remembered with two wins for Best Play Revival and Best Featured Actor in a Play (David Alan Grier). And last year Leon was back in contention with a remounting of Suzan Lori-Parks‘s “Topdog/Underdog.” Despite having ended its limited run a few months before the awards, it still managed to win Best Play Revival over the presumed frontrunner, “A Doll’s House.”
Some may think that “Purlie Victorious” being closed hurts its chances of winning Best Play Revival, especially given that the other two nominees, “Appropriate” and “An Enemy of the People,” are both still running. However, “Purlie Victorious” actually has two advantages. The first is that the production was filmed, recently debuted on PBS and is currently available to stream online. That would be a perfect way of reminding voters about it during the final round.
The second is that in recent years, voters have had to log every show they’ve seen throughout the season into a portal system. As per the official Tony rules, “Voters are expected to attend all nominated productions. Failure to attend a performance of a production, and to mark attendance to that production in the online Tony Voter Portal, will result in a voter not being able to vote in any category in which the production has received a Tony Award nomination.” So we can be fairly confident that those voting will have seen it.
If “Purlie Victorious” doesn’t win, it would be only the second time Kenny Leon will have directed a production nominated for Best Play Revival that ended up losing. The first was an earlier remounting of “A Raisin in the Sun” back in 2004, which lost to “Henry IV.” Luckily, he’ll have two more chances next year with “Home” and “Our Town.” But for now, are we underestimating a Leon-helmed revival to win yet again?
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