Your forecasting team is divided on economic growth projections. How can you reconcile conflicting views?

Start by ensuring that everyone agrees on the primary objectives and desired outcomes. Sometimes differing forecasts stem from differing goals.Compare the assumptions underlying each forecast. Misalignment in assumptions (e.g., growth rates, market conditions) can lead to different projections. Create a space where all viewpoints can be expressed openly and respectfully. Evaluate the risks and uncertainties associated with each forecast. This includes considering external factors like market volatility, regulatory changes, and technological advancements. Bring in external experts or consultants to provide an unbiased perspective.

Disagreement fuels progress. When forecasts diverge, I see it as a golden opportunity to pressure-test assumptions, reveal hidden blind spots, and ultimately strengthen our collective understanding. Rather than imposing a consensus, I encourage a "devil's advocate" approach, assigning team members to rigorously challenge prevailing views. This not only fosters intellectual honesty but also often surfaces crucial insights that would otherwise remain obscured. In one instance, conflicting forecasts on commodity prices led us to uncover a subtle shift in global supply chains, allowing us to proactively adjust our client's hedging strategy and save them millions in potential losses.

Una forma de sacar provecho a esta situación es establecer los límites superior e inferior de las previsiones utilizando las dos proyecciones extremas dentro del equipo. Esto acotará la banda de pronósticos sobre la que seguir trabajando y discutiendo con el fin de establecer un rango de previsiones de consenso.

Trabalhamos, em nossa consultoria, com projetos de probabilidade e não determinístico, onde o aleatório predomina. Ouvimos opiniões divergentes e não temos resposta pronta. Importante separar o que conseguimos gerenciar (risco interno) do que não conseguimos (risco externo/sistêmico). Dar opinião de risco externo é mais complexo e difícil de prever. Pensar em risco interno como queda de receita (por concentração de certo cliente, por exemplo) e aumento de custos (inflação e câmbio no Brasil, com instabilidade em determinado ano) como cenários alternativos ao seu orçamento base é fundamental.

By examining the assumptions behind each projection, such as different economic indicators, market conditions, or models used, the team can identify common ground and any key discrepancies. Encouraging the team to debate the potential risks and opportunities of each scenario helps in reaching a consensus or creating multiple, weighted forecasts based on various conditions. Ultimately, clear communication, openness to different viewpoints, and aligning the forecasts with strategic business objectives are essential for resolving conflicts and ensuring accurate, balanced projections.