“Iran isn’t going to attack again. It’s all up to Israel what happens next,” a Western security source told Field.
There were mixed views in Israel. All source reporting reflects the positives:
· The Israeli air defence system worked amazingly
· Out of 110 ballistic missiles, only 5 are reported to have hit the Nevatim base – damaging a Hercules transport aircraft, some empty storage facilities and a disused runway
· All 185 Unmanned Aerial Vehicles and 36 cruise missiles were shot down before they reached Israel
· The US stood resolutely by Israel’s side
· The US, UK and Jordanian air forces shot down 70 of the 221 drones and missiles and there are reports of active cooperation by Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries
· Arab cooperation to contain Iran, what some in the Israeli press are calling the “Western – Sunni – Israeli alliance”, or the Middle East Air Defence alliance.
And the negatives:
· Israel was locked-down, its population terrified, its economy shuttered for 24 hours
· It cost $1 billion to defend against the Iranian strike
· Israeli Military Intelligence is being publicly criticised as having miscalculated that Iran would not respond directly to the killing of General Zahedi on 1 April
· Israel’s deterrence over Iran is over, Iran may attack Israel directly again
· Iran knows the location of Israel’s strategic air defence assets and how Israel responds to a mass attack.
“What now?” an Israel-watcher speaking to Field asked. “It’s a very complicated question. Within Israel there’s a call for action against Iran. Many people are celebrating what they think is a new Israeli alliance with Sunni states against Iran.
They don’t understand that there’s a big difference between the Arabs being anti-Iran, which they are, and pro-Israel, which they are not. Maybe the Israelis will finish their operation in Gaza and go into Rafah, but that will upset the Americans who are worried about the civilian death toll. Maybe they attack Hizbullah in Lebanon. After this weekend, the rules of the game are all torn up.”
Write to us at contact@fieldintel.co for more
https://lnkd.in/e-iUh5xm