This document provides an overview of hedge fund portfolio updates for the first quarter of 2012 based on 13F filings with the SEC. It summarizes the most frequent stock purchases and sales among 25 prominent hedge funds. It then analyzes the portfolio updates of several funds in more detail, including Baupost Group and Berkshire Hathaway. For Baupost, it notes additions to Idenix Pharmaceuticals and NovaGold Resources as well as trims to Microsoft and BP. For Berkshire Hathaway, it highlights additions to Liberty Media, DaVita, Viacom, General Motors, and Bank of New York Mellon under its new portfolio managers.
This document provides an overview of hedge fund portfolio updates for the first quarter of 2012 based on 13F filings with the SEC. It summarizes the most frequent stock purchases and sales among 25 prominent hedge funds. It then analyzes the portfolio updates of several funds in more detail, including Baupost Group and Berkshire Hathaway. For Baupost, it notes additions to Idenix Pharmaceuticals and NovaGold Resources as well as trims to Microsoft and BP. For Berkshire Hathaway, it highlights additions to Liberty Media, DaVita, Viacom, General Motors, and Bank of New York Mellon under its new portfolio managers.
This document provides an overview of hedge fund portfolio updates for the first quarter of 2012 based on 13F filings with the SEC. It summarizes the most frequent stock purchases and sales among 25 prominent hedge funds. It then analyzes the portfolio updates of several funds in more detail, including Baupost Group and Berkshire Hathaway. For Baupost, it notes additions to Idenix Pharmaceuticals and NovaGold Resources as well as trims to Microsoft and BP. For Berkshire Hathaway, it highlights additions to Liberty Media, DaVita, Viacom, General Motors, and Bank of New York Mellon under its new portfolio managers.
This document provides an overview of hedge fund portfolio updates for the first quarter of 2012 based on 13F filings with the SEC. It summarizes the most frequent stock purchases and sales among 25 prominent hedge funds. It then analyzes the portfolio updates of several funds in more detail, including Baupost Group and Berkshire Hathaway. For Baupost, it notes additions to Idenix Pharmaceuticals and NovaGold Resources as well as trims to Microsoft and BP. For Berkshire Hathaway, it highlights additions to Liberty Media, DaVita, Viacom, General Motors, and Bank of New York Mellon under its new portfolio managers.
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hedge fund wisdom
Table of Contents p.02 Baupost Group Hedge Fund Portfolio Updates: Q1 2012
a quarterly publication by marketfolly.com Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Each quarter, hedge funds and institutional managers are required to disclose their portfolios to the SEC via 13F filing. These filings disclose long U.S. equity positions, American Depositary Receipts (ADRs), stock options (puts/calls), as well as convertible notes. The 13F filing does not disclose positions in other asset classes (such as commodities, currencies, or debt). It also does not reveal short sales or cash positions. Hedge Fund Wisdom, a quarterly publication by MarketFolly.com, updates and analyzes the latest portfolios of prominent investment managers. The positions herein represent a hedge funds first quarter holdings as of March 31st, 2012. Keep in mind these updates are not reflective of a funds entire overall portfolio. Background: First Quarter Summary: !"#$%#$&$'(&)*+,,-'
Mlchael kors (kC8S) Marvell 1echnology (M8vL) vlacom (vlA.8) 8aldu (8luu) Careluslon (Cln) In This Issue: Next Page: Baupost Groups Updated Portfolio - Portfolio updates on 25 prominent hedge fund managers - Equity analysis written by hedge fund analysts that examines the investment thesis behind 3 stocks hedgies were buying - Expert commentary on each funds portfolio moves The table below outlines the most frequent buys & sells this quarter among the 25 prominent hedge funds profiled in this issue. p.04 Berkshire Hathaway p.06 Greenlight Capital p.08 Lone Pine Capital p.11 Appaloosa Management p.14 Pershing Square Capital p.16 Maverick Capital p.19 Third Point p.22 Blue Ridge Capital p.25 Paulson & Co p.28 Tiger Management p.30 Soros Fund Management p.33 Bridger Management p.36 Omega Advisors p.39 Coatue Management p.41 Fairholme Capital p.43 Tiger Global Management p.46 Passport Capital p.51 Perry Capital p.54 Glenview Capital To navigate through the newsletter, simply click on a page number in the Table of Contents to go to that page. p.57 Viking Global p.60 Farallon Capital p.63 Icahn Capital Equity Analyses: p.69 Equinix (EQIX) p.75 Tempur-Pedic (TPX) p.80 AutoZone (AZO) p.65 JANA Partners p.67 Pennant Capital FREE SAMPLE ISSUE 2 Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Baupost Group was recently listed as one of the top 10 hedge funds by net gains since inception. Coming in at number four on the list, its no surprise that investors are always looking to see where Seth Klarman has been investing. Baupost Groups first quarter 13F filed with the SEC shows that they had $2.96 billion allocated to long US equity positions. Assuming Bauposts assets under management (AUM) are around ~$22 billion, this means only just over 13% of their AUM is tied up in US equity exposure. Given Bauposts distressed focus, thats just something worth keeping in mind. Additionally, the firm typically holds around a ~20% cash position as a natural hedge as they wait for compelling opportunities. Lastly, be aware that Baupost has a stake in foreign traded Vivendi as well. As of February 29 th , Baupost owned 25.5 million shares in the company. At that time, the stake was worth over $400 million. But since then, shares have decreased in value and their stake is now worth around $323 million (assuming they still hold the entire position). Comparing this amount to Bauposts disclosed US positions, this would slot Vivendi in around their fourth largest disclosed holding, behind the likes of ViaSat (VSAT), BP (BP), and Hewlett Packard (HPQ). In terms of US equity additions and subtractions, Baupost Group completely exited three stakes including PDL BioPharma (PDLI), Genworth Financial (GNW), and Targacept (TRGT). They also trimmed two previously sizable positions: Microsoft (MSFT) and BP (BP). While they still hold these names, theyve certainly allocated less capital to them (especially in MSFTs case). On the buying side of the portfolio, Baupost continued to purchase shares of Idenix Pharmaceuticals (IDIX) and NovaGold Resources (NG) during the first quarter. These two stocks were flagged in the last issue of Hedge Fund Wisdom (HFW). Baupost continued to add to its stake in Idenix by 45% and NovaGold by 33%. Since the close of the first quarter, NG shares have fallen even further below where Klarmans shop was purchasing them. Given his propensity to scoop up shares when valuation is cheap, it will be interesting to see if he picks up even more gold exposure via this miner. Apart from these maneuvers, Klarman left his equity book largely unchanged. The only other activity was largely selling out of his previously smaller stakes in Multimedia Games (MGAM) and Alere (ALR). For some recent resources on this legendary investor, head to notes from Seth Klarmans Margin of Safety as well as an interview Klarman did with Charlie Rose. Seth Klarman Graduated from Harvard Business School & regarded as one of the best investors of all time
Author of Margin of Safety
View Seth Klarmans Recommended Reading List Baupost Group View Baupost Groups Updated Portfolio on the Next Page Key Takeaways
2%3'4"$565"#$'7#-' n/a
."/,'!"89/%6%/)':&6':;-' uL 8loharma (uLl) CenworLh llnanclal (CnW) 1argacepL (18C1) 3 Baupost Group Next Page: Berkshire Hathaway First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 1 ViaSat Inc. VSAT
17.1% Unchanged $506,205 10,499,992 2 BP plc BP
14.2% Cut -22% $419,441 9,320,900 3 Hewlett-Packard Co HPQ
0.8% Unchanged $22,655 1,685,666 18 Sycamore Networks Inc. SCMR
0.3% Unchanged $9,418 530,871 19 Multimedia Games Inc. MGAM
0.2% Cut -77% $6,396 583,538 20 Alere Inc. ALR
0.1% Cut -93% $3,582 137,700 21 Genworth Financial Inc. GNW
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- 22 PDL BioPharma, Inc. PDLI
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- 23 Targacept, Inc. TRGT
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*** A brand new issue has just been released. CLICK HERE to subscribe *** 4 Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Berkshire Hathaways portfolio continues to be dominated by smaller activity by its new portfolio managers: Todd Combs and Ted Weschler. Last quarters newsletter highlighted how Berkshire initiated stakes in Liberty Media (LMCA) and DaVita (DVA). Both of these stakes are assumed to be attributed to Ted Weschler given that they were both past holdings at his old hedge fund, Peninsula Capital Advisors. He continued to buy shares of both for Berkshire in the first quarter, boosting his holdings in Liberty Media by 76% and DaVita by 123%. And given the style of portfolio Weschler ran at his old shop, its not out of the question to attribute Berkshires new buy of Viacom (VIA.B) to him as well. But despite which manager may have initiated each stake, the main takeaways here are the fact that the Berkshire crew also started a brand new position in General Motors (GM) and heavily added to its stake in The Bank of New York Mellon (BK). During Berkshires recent annual meeting in Omaha, Buffett and Charlie Munger commented that they are very happy with the new managers and are pleased with their returns. Both Combs and Weschler receive a base salary of $1 million as well as a performance incentive for 10% of outperformance versus the S&P 500 (on a rolling basis of 3 years). Whats also interesting is that 80% of their performance bonus will be based on the managers own return, while 20% is based on the return of the other manager. Buffett also shed some light as to how much money each gentleman is managing. They each started with a portfolio of $1.75 billion, but they are now managing $2.75 billion each. In terms of portfolio activity directly attributable to Buffett, there doesnt seem to be much apart from adding ever so slightly to his pre-existing Wells Fargo (WFC) position and adding to his stake in Walmart (WMT) by 19%. It is worth noting, however, that Buffett has once again been granted confidentiality by the SEC regarding some of his activity. The fine print of the 13F filing says that, confidential information has been omitted from the Form 13F and filed separately with the Commission. Buffett has done this numerous times in the past, typically when he is building a position and doesnt want to publicly reveal it before hes done buying. At Berkshires recent annual meeting, he did mention that he was considering a $22 billion deal a few months ago. He said that in order to get the deal done, he would have had to sell some stocks to get it done and he didnt want to do that. It will be interesting to see what (if anything) Buffett has been buying in the disclosure next quarter. On the selling end of the portfolio, Berkshire reduced its position in Intel (INTC) by 32%, Verisk Analytics (VRSK) by 35%, and Dollar General (DG) by 19%. For recent resources on this legendary investor, be sure to check out notes from Buffetts meeting with MBA students, where he mentioned he had been buying Korean equities for his personal portfolio. Also check out key takeaways from Buffetts 2011 annual letter and a tour of Buffetts office. Warren Buffett Mentored by Benjamin Graham in the ways of value investing
Third richest person in the world according to Forbes
View Buffetts Recommended Reading List Berkshire Hathaway View Berkshire Hathaways Updated Portfolio on the Next Page Key Takeaways ' 2%3'4"$565"#$-' Ceneral MoLors (CM) vlacom (vlA.8)
."/,'!"89/%6%/)':&6':;-' Comdlsco (CuCC.C8) 5 Berkshire Hathaway First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Next Page: Greenlight Capital Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 1 The Coca-Cola Company KO
19.7% Unchanged $14,802,000 200,000,000 2 Wells Fargo & Company WFC
17.9% Added 3% $13,462,596 394,334,928 3 IBM IBM
17.8% Added 1% $13,436,163 64,395,700 4 American Express Co AXP
0.1% New $75,541 1,591,670 33 GlaxoSmithKline plc GSK
0.1% Unchanged $67,837 1,510,500 34 Gannett Co., Inc. GCI
0.0% Unchanged $26,678 1,740,231 35 Ingersoll-Rand Plc IR
0.0% Cut 0% $26,299 636,000 36 Comdisco Holding Co CDCO
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6 Q3 2010 www.hedgefundwisdom.com The first thing worth highlighting with Greenlight Capitals portfolio is the fact that Apple (AAPL) now represents almost 16% of their reported US equity longs. A lot of this seems to be tied to price appreciation as Einhorns allowed the position size to grow as well. After all, past newsletter issues have highlighted that he bought the bulk of his AAPL at $248 per share. But despite the fact that shares now trade north of $500, Einhorn recently reiterated his conviction in the name at the Ira Sohn Conference in New York. He said that many people have miscategorized the company as a hardware play. Instead, he says its a software company that happens to sell high margin hardware, calling their iOS platform sticky as it captured the customer. While many detractors say that a trillion dollar market cap for a company is absurd, Einhorn says its obviously not prohibited and anything can happen. To combat another bear argument that everyone already owns Apple, Einhorn argued that hedge funds actually have less than 2% of assets. He simply thinks the company is cheap and will continue to grow. Dan Loeb of Third Point agrees with him and his thoughts on the stock are outlined a few pages down. At the Ira Sohn event, Einhorn also made numerous other comments worth highlighting, including the fact that he said to short Martin Marietta Materials (MLM), arguing that at a 35 P/E ratio, the stock is overvalued. He thinks that a one time fiscal stimulus has goosed earnings. Additionally, he mentioned that Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS) would suffer due to Amazon.coms (AMZN) entrance into the sporting goods category. The Greenlight manager also had negative comments about Amazon, saying that the company grows revenue, but criticzed their weak profit growth. However, he did not say he was shorting them. He did say to short US Steel (X) as well as Zara/Inditex. In terms of notable first quarter portfolio activity, Greenlight cut its stakes in Microsoft (MSFT) and Research in Motion (RIMM) in half. The hedge fund also completely exited shares of Yahoo! (YHOO) for the second time as Dan Loeb continues his activist fight there. Apart from three smaller new buys, Einhorn wasnt doing much purchasing at all. This could be a function of his view on valuations at the time given that hes a long-term value oriented investor. Regardless, he was reducing position sizes across the portfolio, thats for certain. David Einhorn will be presenting investment ideas at the Value Investing Congress in NYC in October and newsletter readers can receive a discount to the event by clicking here and using discount code: N12MF3
David Einhorn Has returned 21.5% annualized
Predicted & profited from the demise of Lehman Brothers
Author of Fooling Some of the People All of the Time Greenlight Capital Key Takeaways
2%3'4"$565"#$-' CompuLer Sclences Corp (CSC) Lxpedla (LxL) 8oundy's (8nu?) ' ."/,'!"89/%6%/)':&6':;-' Cmnlvlslon 1ech (Cv1l) 8roadrldge llnanclal SoluLlons (88) ?ahoo! (?PCC) 1ravelers (18v) lurlex harma (lu8x) llrsL Solar (lSL8) uLs Lnergy arLners (LL) View Greenlight Capitals Updated Portfolio on the Next Page See what stocks hedge funds have been buying in the latest quarter. CLICK HERE to subscribe now 7 Greenlight Capital First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Next Page: Lone Pine Capital Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 1 Apple Inc. AAPL
0.2% Unchanged $11,999 695,580 36 SYMMETRICOM, INC. SYMM
0.2% Unchanged $9,866 1,709,846 37 ROUNDY'S, INC. RNDY
0.1% New $6,013 561,934 38 OmniVision Tech OVTI
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- 39 Broadridge Financial BR
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- 40 Yahoo! Inc. YHOO
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- 41 The Travelers Co TRV
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- 42 Furiex Pharma FURX
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- 43 First Solar, Inc. FSLR PUT
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- 44 Energy Partners Ltd. EPL
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8 Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Steve Mandel spoke at the Ira Sohn Conference a few days ago where he mentioned that he had recently gone long department store Kohls (KSS). He also said he likes the tech leader companies. Hes obviously referring to his large positions in Apple (AAPL), Priceline.com (PCLN), and Google (GOOG). He would have also been referring to Baidu (BIDU), except for the fact that Lone Pine completely exited shares in the first quarter. This name had previously been lumped in with the others under the tech leader theme. Shifting to Lone Pines latest portfolio disclosure, its quite evident the hedge fund is playing the El Paso (EP) merger arbitrage as the company was their top holding at the end of the first quarter after they boosted their position by a whopping 382%. The top of their portfolio was slightly changed as they also took profits in highfliers like Apple (AAPL) and Priceline.com (PCLN), cutting each by 41% and 26% respectively. In terms of new purchases, there are six worth highlighting due to their size: AutoZone (AZO), Gap (GPS), Walt Disney (DIS), Ross Stores (ROST), BE Aerospace (BEAV) and Estee Lauder (EL) ~ the last of which was a previously longstanding holding for the firm. They exited shares in Q4 of 2011, only to turn around and re-establish their stake in Q1 of 2012. Lone Pines portfolio is centered on a few key themes. The rise of the emerging market consumer is certainly a big one as theyve been long casinos like Las Vegas Sands (LVS) with its Singapore and Cotai exposure, fine retail goods such as Ralph Lauren (RL) and additionally theyve disclosed positions in Esprit (traded in Hong Kong: 0330). Theyve played the rise of outsourcing via Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH) and Michael Page in the UK. Its clear they see internet plays as worthwhile, investing in dominant companies such as Google (GOOG) and Priceline.com (PCLN). Lastly, the rise of mobile computing is another theme you see in their portfolio via Apple (AAPL), Qualcomm (QCOM), and Crown Castle (CCI). On the short side of the portfolio, its been revealed that Lone Pine has been short Neopost SA in France. Their thesis there seems to be that with the profliferation of digital content, people are printing and mailing items less and less. As such, theres less demand for mailing and postage equipment. Stephen Mandel Seeks to identify companies with good management teams that are trading below intrinsic value
Previously a consumer analyst at Julian Robertsons hedge fund Tiger Management Lone Pine Capital Key Takeaways
."/,'!"89/%6%/)':&6':;-' neLApp (n1A) 8aldu (8luu) Wllllams Sonoma (WSM) lMC 1echnologles (C1l) Wlllls Croup (WSP) e8ay (L8A?) Amerlprlse (AM) View Lone Pine Capitals Updated Portfolio on the Next Page 9 Lone Pine Capital First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Continued on next page Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 1 El Paso Corp. EP
5.7% Added 382% $934,838 31,635,809 2 Google Inc. GOOG
0.5% New $89,597 2,486,720 45 Wynn Resorts Ltd. WYNN
0.5% New $86,817 695,207
10 Next Page: Appaloosa Management First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Continued Lone Pine Capital Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 46 MedcoHealth MHS CALL 0.5% Unchanged $77,330 1,100,000 47 TRIPADVISOR TRIP
0.4% New $66,546 1,865,613 48 iPath S&P 500 VIX VXX PUT 0.3% Cut -67% $53,698 3,200,000 49 Ariba Inc. ARBA
0.3% New $50,839 1,554,231 50 Weyerhaeuser Co. WY PUT 0.3% New $47,566 2,170,000 51 ISOFTSTONE HOLDINGS ISS
0.3% Unchanged $46,391 5,253,739 52 Intel Corporation INTC PUT 0.2% Unchanged $26,569 945,000 53 Tractor Supply Company TSCO
0.1% New $21,492 237,326 54 7 Days Group Holdings SVN
0.1% Cut -19% $13,888 1,108,375 55 China Lodging Group HTHT
."/,'!"89/%6%/)':&6':;-' 8osLon SclenLlflc (8Sx) View Appaloosa Managements Updated Portfolio on the Next Page After largely selling a lot of names for the past two quarters, David Teppers hedge fund firm Appaloosa Management waded into the buying pool in the new year. In fact, Appaloosa only completely exited one name: Boston Scientific (BSX). Teppers latest portfolio activity can be easily summarized with one word: technology. Last quarters issue highlighted how Teppers firm had almost quadrupled its stake in Apple (AAPL). Well, the hedge fund was out buying even more shares in the first quarter, boosting its position size by 277%. At the end of the quarter, AAPL was their second largest disclosed holding. But if you David Tepper Has compounded 30% for investors over 17 years
Takes concentrated positions in distressed debt & equity
Profiled in the new book: The Alpha Masters Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com examine their portfolio closer, youll see that they technically have even more gross exposure to AAPL. Appaloosa started a massive new stake in the PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) during the first quarter, bringing it all the way up to their top holding as they allocated over $1.2 billion to the exchange traded fund. Examining the QQQs top ten holdings, youll see that its top holding is Apple at 18.57% of the index. The exact same thing can be said about Appaloosas gross exposure to Google (GOOG) as well. While they bought the stock outright in the quarter (new position), Google is also 5.5% of the QQQ. Lastly, they gained a lot of exposure to Qualcomm (QCOM) the same way: buying the stock outright and then via the QQQs 3.82% allocation to the company. So while Tepper was out buying technology in size during the first quarter, his purchases in the financial sector werent far behind. Citigroup (C) garnered the most capital from the hedge fund in the sector as this new position is now Appaloosas third largest disclosed holding. They also decided to allocate capital to Bank of America (BAC) as well. The last major takeaway here is that Appaloosa Management was also out buying airlines in size during the quarter. They increased their United Continental (UAL) stake by 571%, US Airways (LCC) position by 229%, and started a new stake in Delta Air Lines (DAL). For an in-depth look at Appaloosa, David Tepper is profiled and interviewed in the new book The Alpha Masters along with numerous other famous hedge fund managers, so definitely check it out. Appaloosa Management 12 Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Appaloosa Management Continued on next page First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 1 PowerShares QQQ QQQ
31.4% New $1,273,602 18,854,218 2 Apple Inc. AAPL
10.1% Added 277% $410,637 685,000 3 Citigroup, Inc. C
5.5% New $222,747 6,094,305 4 United Continental UAL
4.2% Added 571% $171,313 7,968,035 5 Google Inc. GOOG
2.6% New $103,969 162,137 6 QUALCOMM Incorporated QCOM
0.3% Unchanged $10,044 4,292,354 45 MFA Financial, Inc. MFA
0.2% New $7,691 1,029,583
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Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Appaloosa Management First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Continued Next Page: Pershing Square Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 46 DELPHI DLPH
0.2% Unchanged $7,244 229,236 47 Boyd Gaming Corp. BYD
0.1% New $5,456 695,975 48 DowJonesConstruction ITB
0.1% New $4,734 321,595 49 NetApp, Inc. NTAP
0.1% New $4,477 100,000 50 General Motors Warrant GM/WS/A
0.1% Unchanged $2,920 175,561 51 General Motors Warrant GM/WS/B
0.1% Unchanged $1,966 175,561 52 Beazer Homes USA Inc. BZH
0.0% Unchanged $931 286,614 53 Oracle Corp. ORCL CALL 0.0% New $189 20,100 54 Boston Scientific Corp BSX
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See the latest hedge fund portfolios in the brand new issue available at www.hedgefundwisdom.com 14 View Pershing Squares Updated Portfolio on the Next Page Key Takeaways ' 2%3'4"$565"#$-' n/a ' ."/,'!"89/%6%/)':&6':;-' !.C. enney (!C) Calls Bill Ackmans Pershing Square did practically no buying during the first quarter and the only notable activity from this hedge fund came on the selling side. Pershing sold 27% of its stake in Kraft (KFT), which is interesting considering that theres a catalyst on the horizon as the company will be splitting up later into a North American grocer specialist and an emerging snacks business. Ackman also cut his stake in Fortune Brands Home & Security (FBHS) by 36% during the first quarter. And in a recent 13G filed with the SEC in early May, Pershing has actually disclosed that they no longer own a stake in FBHS at all. This company came to be as a result of Fortune Brands split into FBHS and Beam Inc (BEAM). Its worth noting that Pershing continues to hold a sizable chunk of BEAM as they clearly favor one split entity over the other. The biggest sale Ackman made in the quarter, though, involved his stake in Family Dollar (FDO). He drastically reduced his position by almost 70%. And again, by way of recent 13G filed with the SEC, Ackman has actually disclosed that he no longer owns FDO as of the middle of May. The Pershing Square founder also recently gave a presentation at the Ira Sohn Conference in New York where he touched on his investment in J.C. Penney (JCP). He says that the best ideas are often contrarian, just like his old play of buying GGP right before bankruptcy and his short of MBIA back in the day. JCPs recent comps came out worse than expected but Ackman says the company is still moving ahead with the turnaround and that the customer is starting to understand the process. Ackman tried to focus on the cost savings, saying JCP spends 31% on SG&A while Kohls (KSS) spends only about 21%. Comparing ads, Ackman points to JCP spending 6% of revenue on ads while KSS only 4.5%. He said, Not a lean company trying to cut costs, they are running fat. He also pointed out that at JCP, employees used 20% of corporate bandwidth for Netflix and need to re-focus. In general, Ackmans thesis on J.C. Penney is that you can invest in a cyclically depressed national retailer at a discount to fair value. Here are some excerpts from Ackmans presentation: Cheap relative to trailing earnings (adjusted for year end cash and non- store real estate portfolio Sales productivity and margins remain depressed creating material leverage to a recovery Companys reported pension expense masks true cash flow JCP owns substantial core and non-core fee and long-term leasehold real estate interests. Ackman has also been involved with Justice Holdings, a specialty purpose acquisition company (SPAC) that recently took a stake in Burger King with plans to bring the company public again. The brand new book The Alpha Masters features an in-depth profile of Ackman along with many other managers this newsletter covers and its definitely a must-read.
View a profile of Pershing Square
Subject of the book Confidence Game: How a Hedge Fund Manager Called Wall Streets Bluff
Bill Ackman Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Pershing Square Capital 15 Pershing Square Next Page: Maverick Capital First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 1 Canadian Pacific Rail CP
22.7% Added 0% $1,834,943 24,159,888 2 J. C. Penney Company JCP
17.2% Added 1% $1,384,454 39,075,771 3 General Growth Properties GGP
15.2% Unchanged $1,227,250 72,233,712 4 Beam, Inc. BEAM
15.1% Unchanged $1,219,342 20,818,545 5 Citigroup, Inc. C
11.8% Added 0% $954,854 26,124,594 6 Kraft Foods Inc. KFT
3.6% Cut -36% $294,044 13,323,249 8 Howard Hughes Corporation HHC
2.8% Unchanged $227,889 3,568,017 9 Alexander & Baldwin, Inc. ALEX
2.2% Added 2% $176,594 3,644,870 10 Family Dollar Stores Inc. FDO
2.1% Cut -69% $165,468 2,614,863 11 J. C. Penney Company, Inc. JCP CALL
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16 Lee Ainslies Maverick Capital was out trimming quite a few positions by the end of the first quarter. One theme thats quite evident is their desire to reduce financials exposure. They sold 72% of their massive stake in JPMorgan Chase (JPM) during the quarter. And even after that, its still their seventh largest holding. But they also completely exited shares of US Bancorp (USB), Wells Fargo (WFC), and sold almost 90% of their Citigroup (C) stake. The wave of selling literally affected Mavericks top Key Takeaways
."/,'!"89/%6%/)':&6':;-' uS 8ancorp (uS8) Marvell 1echnology (M8vL) Wells largo (WlC) Amazon.com (AMZn) llrsL Solar (lSL8) Pome lnns & PoLels (Mln) Apollo Croup (ACL) Cornlng (CLW) 1rlna Solar (1SL) PCA (PCA) 8anco SanLander-Chlle (8SAC) 8oyal 8ank of ScoLland referreds thirteen disclosed holdings. Last quarter, Tyco (TYC) and Corning (GLW) were Mavericks top two disclosed positions. This time around, both are nowhere to be found in their top 20 holdings. Maverick dumped its GLW position entirely and sold 82% of its TYC stake after buying it hand over fist the past two quarters. After all the selling in the first quarter, Mavericks top five holdings are now Cigna (CI), Avago Technologies (AVGO), Qualcomm (QCOM), Apple (AAPL), and Google (GOOG). The last two were consensus buys among hedge funds profiled in this issue (even though Ainslies firm was reducing their stakes in each). The hedge fund had a rough 2011 and Ainslie addressed this in his year-end letter to investors, writing: While the environment for fundamental investing was certainly unfavorable last year, such factors do not fully account for our results. Mavericks poor performance was primarily driven by a handful of individual mistakes and insufficient risk constraints. In order to address risk management, theyve implemented MavRank, a quantitative system driven by fundamental inputs that helps make recommendations for position sizing. The manager also touched on the investment environment, writing, (Last year) stocks moved in tandem with one another to a degree never before seen and were less responsive to idiosyncratic risks, such as fundamental factors, than ever before equities have maintained correlation above the long-term average for almost six years now, creating a sustained, unfavorable headwind for fundamental investors. View Maverick Capitals Updated Portfolio on the Next Page Lee Ainslie Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Maverick Capital 14.0% annualized returns since inception in 1995
Compares a companys enterprise value to sustainable free cash flow
View a profile of Maverick Capital 17 Maverick Capital First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Continued on next page Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 1 CIGNA Corporation CI
0.8% Cut -81% $55,005 807,120 45 Sirona Dental Systems SIRO
0.8% Cut -70% $55,236 1,071,713
18 Next Page: Third Point First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Continued Maverick Capital Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 46 H&R Block, Inc. HRB
0.8% New $53,531 3,250,208 47 DaVita, Inc. DVA
0.8% New $52,805 585,616 48 Citrix Systems, Inc. CTXS
0.7% New $49,682 629,598 49 Family Dollar Stores FDO
0.6% New $42,569 672,712 50 Urban Outfitters Inc. URBN
0.6% Cut -91% $38,553 1,324,400 51 J. C. Penney Co JCP
0.5% Cut -75% $35,044 989,118 52 CARBO Ceramics Inc. CRR
0.5% New $32,186 305,223 53 Six Flags Entertainment SIX
0.4% Cut -51% $29,246 625,315 54 Capital One Financial COF
0.2% Cut -79% $11,180 658,031 67 Signet Jewelers Limited SIG
0.2% Cut -74% $10,678 225,840 68 RBS Pfd M RBS-PM
0.2% Cut -58% $10,634 646,839 69 RBS Pfd S RBS-PS
0.1% Cut -84% $7,671 459,329 70 MEDLEY CAPITAL MCC
0.1% Cut -59% $7,747 687,420 71 Bluefly Inc. BFLY
0.1% Cut -50% $6,853 3,704,101 72 Wet Seal Inc. WTSLA
0.1% Cut -58% $6,059 1,756,106 73 icad Inc. ICAD
0.0% Cut -62% $80 184,141 74 RBS Pfd N RBS-PN
Sold
- 75 Banco Santander-Chile BSAC
Sold
- 76 RBS Pfd T RBS-PT
Sold
- 77 HCA HLDGS HCA
Sold
- 78 Trina Solar Ltd. TSL
Sold
- 79 Par Pharma PRX
Sold
- 80 ETFS Physical Platinum PPLT
Sold
- 81 U.S. Bancorp USB
Sold
- 82 Marvell Technology MRVL
Sold
- 83 Wells Fargo & Co WFC
Sold
- 84 Amazon.com Inc. AMZN
Sold
- 85 Corning Inc. GLW
Sold
- 86 Apollo Group Inc. APOL
Sold
- 87 Home Inns & Hotels HMIN
Sold
- 88 First Solar, Inc. FSLR
Sold
- 89 Yingli Green Energy YGE
Sold
- 90 Citigroup Dividend C/PH
Sold
- 91 AMBEV ABV
Sold
- 92 Cardiovascular Systems CSII
Sold
- 93 Las Vegas Sands LVS
Sold
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19 Third Point continues to lead the activist charge in Yahoo! (YHOO) and they were out buying even more shares in the first quarter. Third Point won their proxy contest and ousted the CEO. But now the problem still remains: how do you fix the company? Loebs firm started a sizable new position in Apple (AAPL) during the first quarter. He purchased shares at $445 and wrote his thoughts on the company in his Q1 letter: Currently, Apple is trading at 13.4x CY2012 EPS of $45, and 11.6x CY2013 EPS of $52 Adjusting for cash, Apples valuation drops to 11.1x CY2012 EPS and 9.6x C2013, leaving it inexpensive relative to the S&P 500. He points to the product halo effect as more users become entrenched in the companys operating system as well as growth in China as key drivers Key Takeaways
."/,'!"89/%6%/)':&6':;-' 8lg LoLs (8lC) lalns LxploraLlon (x) LlberLy lnLeracLlve (Lln1A) Lxpedla (LxL) Sunoco (Sun) Skyworks SoluLlons (SWkS) newell 8ubbermald (nWL) going forward. Third Point also started new stakes in Medco Health and Express Scripts (ESRX) during the quarter, playing the merger arbitrage. Express Scripts received regulatory approval to acquire Medco and the deal went through. Post-merger, Loeb continues to like the combined entity, writing, Based on our analysis of the combined MHS/ESRX entity, we believe that Express Scripts remains an attractive investment candidate, combining 15+% EPS growth, the opportunity for accelerated synergy realization, and a reasonable forward PE multiple (13x 2013 EPS). The hedge fund continued to add to its position in Sara Lee (SLE) during the quarter. This should come as no surprise given the catalysts ahead. The company has announced a special dividend of $3 per share after the tea & coffee division is spun-off in June. Existing shareholders of SLE will receive shares in the new company, which plans to list in the Netherlands. When viewing Third Points equity portfolio on the next page, just remember they also invest in debt and other asset classes as well. Third Points actual top five holdings as of the end of April are: Yahoo (YHOO), gold, Delphi (DLPH), Apple (AAPL), and Eksportfinans ASA. Also, Delphi shows up as a new stake on the next page, but thats only because the company completed its IPO. In reality, Third Point owned it beforehand. Loeb is also profiled in the excellent new book The Alpha Masters along with numerous other top managers. View Third Points Updated Portfolio on the Next Page Dan Loeb Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Third Point Offshore fund has returned 18.4% annualized since inception
Focuses on event-driven and distressed plays
View his recommended reading list 20 Third Point First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Continued on next page Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 1 Yahoo! Inc. YHOO
0.10% New $4,040 250,000 37 BioFuel Energy Corp. BIOF
0.09% Unchanged $3,626 5,578,800 38 RBS Pfd M RBS-PM
0.09% New $3,452 210,000 39 McKesson Corporation MCK CALL 0.04% New $1,512 500,000 40 KINDER MORGAN KMI CALL 0.04% New $1,625 2,500,000 41 RBS Pfd P RBS-PP
0.03% New $1,304 80,000 42 QUESTCOR PHARMA QCOR PUT 0.01% New $484 510,000 43 Qihoo 360 Technology QIHU PUT 0.01% New $458 228,900
21 Third Point Next Page: Blue Ridge Capital Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Continued Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 44 Potash Corp POT
Sold
- 45 Newell Rubbermaid Inc. NWL
Sold
- 46 HOLLYFRONTIER HFC
Sold
- 47 Gilead Sciences Inc. GILD
Sold
- 48 Liberty Media Interactive LINTA
Sold
- 49 Crexus Investment Corp. CXS
Sold
- 50 MGIC Investment Corp. MTG
Sold
- 51 Gardner Denver Inc. GDI
Sold
- 52 ABRAXAS PETROLEUM AXAS
Sold
- 53 MEMC Electronic WFR
Sold
- 54 SanDisk Corp. SNDK
Sold
- 55 Big Lots Inc. BIG
Sold
- 56 Plains Exploration PXP
Sold
- 57 Celanese Corp. CE
Sold
- 58 FMC Corp. FMC
Sold
- 59 Williams Companies, Inc. WMB
Sold
- 60 GrafTech Intl GTI
Sold
- 61 WPX ENERGY INC WPX
Sold
- 62 SUNCOKE ENERGY SXC
Sold
- 63 ETRADE Financial ETFC
Sold
- 64 EAGLE ROCK ENERGY EROCW
Sold
- 65 Skyworks Solutions Inc. SWKS
Sold
- 66 Sunoco Inc. SUN
Sold
- 67 YPF S.A. YPF
Sold
- 68 Yahoo! Inc. YHOO CALL
Sold
- 69 Expedia Inc. EXPE
Sold
- 70 Diamond Foods, Inc. DMND PUT
Sold
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22 Blue Ridge Capital made a few significant sells during the first quarter. They liquidated their longstanding position in Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX), previously their sixth largest holding. They also completely exited shares of Level 3 Communications (LVLT). While they expected the company to further its market position after the acquisition of Global Crossing, shares of LVLT largely havent done much. Additionally, they trimmed their previously largest holding, Range Resources, by 25% during the quarter. They still own it, though, as its now their tenth largest disclosed stake. The last stock worth highlighting on the selling side is NovaGold Resources (NG). Blue Ridge cut its position in half, which is intriguing when you consider that Seth Klarmans Baupost Group was buying during the quarter. Not to mention, shares have slid even lower since the close of the quarter. On the buying side of the equation, Blue Ridge ratcheted up their position in Apple Key Takeaways
."/,'!"89/%6%/)':&6':;-' Level 3 CommunlcaLlons (LvL1) MarkeL vecLors Cold Mlners (Cux) LchoSLar (SA1S) valeanL harmaceuLlcals (v8x) lllumlna (lLMn) ennyMac MorLgage (M1) Amerlcan CaplLal Agency (ACnC) n8C Lnergy (n8C) uunkln 8rands (unkn) kk8 (kk8) (AAPL) in a big way, almost doubling their position size. Theyve long been a holder of the stock, but they sold almost 70% of their position in the fourth quarter. They quickly changed their mind on that decision, bringing it back up to their top holding in the first quarter. The hedge fund also started three new stakes worth highlighting. TripAdvisor (TRIP) was spun-off from Expedia (EXPE) in the fourth quarter and John Griffins firm likes the newly separate company as they bought over 4.5 million TRIP shares. Michael Kors (KORS) completed its initial public offering (IPO) in the fourth quarter, but Blue Ridge waited until the first quarter to initiate a position in the name. Lastly, Martin Marietta (MLM) garnered new capital from the hedge fund as well. Regarding MLM, Tom Russo of Gardner, Russo, & Gardner recently made comments about the investment thesis on the company with Columbia Business School: (Its) business, stone quarrying, tends toward natural monopolies. It is very expensive to haul stone on a truck and stone isnt valuable enough to allow it to recoup shipping costs. Within 25 miles is about the only distance that you can draw from to get stone so if you own a quarry in an urban region, you have a very valuable asset. As youll notice from their portfolio on the next page, Blue Ridge is one of the better hedge funds to track via 13F due to the lower amount of turnover. Many of the positions remain unchanged from the prior quarter. John Griffins firm typically categorizes its investments into either a) time arbitrage (long- term investors) or b) catalyst driven. View Blue Ridge Capitals Updated Portfolio on the Next Page Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Blue Ridge Capital John Griffin Classifies investments as catalyst driven or time arbitrage & previously was Julian Robertsons right-hand man
View his recommended reading list
23 Blue Ridge Capital First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Continued on next page Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 1 Apple Inc. AAPL
24 Next Page: Paulson & Co First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Continued Blue Ridge Capital Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 40 Level 3 Communications LVLT
Sold
- 41 PennyMac Mortgage PMT
Sold
- 42 American Capital Agency AGNC
Sold
- 43 Gold Miners ETF GDX
Sold
- 44 NRG Energy, Inc. NRG
Sold
- 45 DUNKIN' BRANDS GROUP DNKN
Sold
- 46 Kohlberg Kravis Roberts KKR
Sold
- 47 GOLUB CAPITAL GBDC
Sold
- 48 Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. IVN
Sold
- 49 EchoStar Corp. SATS
Sold
- 50 Greenlight Capital Re GLRE
Sold
- 51 Valeant Pharmaceuticals VRX
Sold
- 52 Dynegy Inc. DYN
Sold
- 53 East West Bancorp EWBC
Sold
- 54 ARCOS DORADOS ARCO
Sold
- 55 Illumina Inc. ILMN
Sold
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25 John Paulson is profiled and interviewed in the new book, The Alpha Masters, a true must-read due to the unparalled access to numerous top managers the book provides. He also recently made an appearance at the Ira Sohn Conference in New York City where he presented three long ideas. The first of which, Caesars (CZR), was one he just started a position in during the first quarter. His thesis on buying the equity of this highly leveraged name is that hes treating it essentially as a stock with a high option value. He says that common stock is only 7% of valuation and gets the upside as the company is turning around. Paulson argues the key to CZR could not only be gaming properties but social gaming, which could be worth $6-9, and online gaming could be worth $24 per share. The key is growth and he says the company is already seeing revenue per available room (RevPAR) growth. Paulson Key Takeaways
."/,'!"89/%6%/)':&6':;-' 1ransocean (8lC) C8 8lchard Lllls (C8C) harmasseL ~ boughL ouL SouLhern unlon ~ boughL ouL Whlrlpool (WP8) Mosalc (MCS) 8eazer Pomes (8ZMu) vall 8esorLs (M1n) lelCor Lodglng (lCP-A) points to CZR having no debt due until 2015 and he likes hotels because the rates increase with inflation. He argued the stock could have 10x upside. His second idea at the conference was AngloGold Ashanti (AU), a position hes held for a while now and one thats currently his third largest disclosed long. Paulson says this play is pure gold upside and noted its been selling off much more than the price of gold as the correlation has broken down. While bears say to just buy the SPDR Gold Trust exchange traded fund (GLD), Paulson says youre essentially paying more by doing that. He argues youre buying the company at only $133 per proven reserves. Paulsons last idea at the Ira Sohn Conference was an arbitrage play (his specialty). Hes playing the CVR Energy (CVI) takeover by Carl Icahn and is tendering his shares into the offer. So if you buy shares at $30.35 and tender to the offer at $30, youre only paying $0.35 for contingent cash payment rights (CCP). So if Icahn turns around and shops the company and sells it for $36.15, the CCP could be worth $6.15, which is a 17.6x return on the $0.35 paid initially. Touching on some of Paulsons first quarter portfolio activity, he was mainly out adding to risk arbitrage positions for takeovers (El Paso, Medco Health, AboveNet, etc). And after selling over 80% of his position in Transocean (RIG) in the fourth quarter, John Paulson completely liquidated the rest of his shares as RIG continued to trade lower.
View Paulson & Cos Updated Portfolio on the Next Page Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Paulson & Co John Paulson Predicted & profited from the subprime crisis; manages $35bn
Featured in the book The Greatest Trade Ever
View an in-depth look at Paulsons gold fund This is a free past issue. The brand new issue is available at www.hedgefundwisdom.com 26 Paulson & Co First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Continued on next page Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 1 SPDR Gold Shares GLD
0.3% New $47,460 1,000,000 47 Quest Software Inc. QSFT
0.3% New $46,540 2,000,000 48 AbitibiBowater Inc. ABH
0.3% Cut -30% $47,124 3,300,000 49 Gaylord Entertainment Co. GET
0.3% New $41,888 1,360,000 50 Barrick Gold Corporation ABX
0.3% Cut -1% $39,784 915,000
27 First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Continued Paulson & Co Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 51 HCA HLDGS INC COM HCA
0.3% New $39,584 1,600,000 52 United Rentals, Inc. URI
0.0% Unchanged $928 70,000 81 Quad/Graphics, Inc. QUAD
0.0% Cut -86% $2,085 150,000 82 Sara Lee Corp. SLE
0.0% New $1,507 70,000 83 Transocean Ltd. RIG
Sold
- 84 FelCor Lodging Trust FCH-PA
Sold
- 85 CB Richard Ellis Group CBG
Sold
- 86 PHARMASSET VRUS
Sold
- 87 Southern Union SUG
Sold
- 88 Whirlpool Corp. WHR
Sold
- 89 Mosaic Co. MOS
Sold
- 90 PMI GROUP INC PPMIQ
Sold
- 91 Transatlantic Holdings TRH
Sold
- 92 Veeco Instruments VECO
Sold
- 93 Beazer Homes USA BZMD
Sold
- 94 Vail Resorts Inc. MTN
Sold
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Next Page: Tiger Management 28 The upper echelon of Tiger Managements portfolio saw some interesting changes during the first quarter. The most notable change would be the fact that Julian Robertsons firm sold completely out of its previously large stake in Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX). His former number two right-hand man, John Griffin, also sold out of VRX in the quarter. Given that Robertson often talks with his former employees, this similar movement is probably not a coincidence. After selling out of Netflix (NFLX) in the fourth quarter (after shares plummeted), Tiger Management re-entered a NFLX position just one quarter later. NFLX currently trades around $74. The lowest Tiger could have paid was $72 and the highest $129 based on NFLXs trading during the quarter. Needless to say, its been a wild ride. Tiger also started a bevy of positions, including: HCA (HCA), Starbucks (SBUX), Sherwin Williams (SHW) and VeriSign (VRSN). SHW shares have been on a monster Key Takeaways
."/,'!"89/%6%/)':&6':;-' valeanL harmaceuLlcals (v8x) ClLlgroup (C) ulglLal Clobe (uCl) Sonoco roducLs (SCn) run this year as numerous other hedge funds got involved. Robertsons firm also added to existing positions in Apple (AAPL) and Mastercard (MA), boosting their holdings by almost 30% each. AAPL remains Tigers top holding, while MA jumped up from 7 th largest position to 3 rd largest. And after buying baskets of gold miners and junior miners last quarter, they continued to buy shares of GDX and GDXJ. Robertson recently gave a rare interview to Columbia Business School where he shared some of his latest thoughts. He mentioned he likes WuXi PharmaTech (WX), saying that, I love WuXi which is a Chinese-based employment agency for PHDs, primarily in the drug industry the companys earnings are certainly increasing beautifully at about 20% a year and it still sells at 10x earnings. Robertson actually sold 25% of his WX position during the first quarter, but its still his seventh largest disclosed position. The Tiger Management founder also shared some wisdom as to how he approaches investing: I believe that the best way to manage money is to go long and short stocks. My theory is that if the 50 best stocks you can come up with dont outperform the 50 worst stocks you can come up with, you should be in another business For my shorts, I look for a bad management team, and a wildly overvalued company in an industry that is declining or misunderstood. In the interview, he also reiterated his bullish stance on shares of Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG).
View Tiger Managements Updated Portfolio on the Next Page Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Tiger Management Julian Robertson Mentored the Tiger Cub hedge funds & seeded other talented up & coming managers
Featured in the book A Tiger in the Land of Bulls and Bears
View a profile of Tiger Management 29 Tiger Management First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Next Page: Soros Fund Management Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 1 Apple Inc. AAPL
15.1% Added 29% $53,174 88,690 2 The Goldman Sachs Group GS
8.9% Added 9% $31,225 251,065 3 Mastercard Incorporated MA
6.3% Added 29% $22,286 52,994 4 Liberty Global Inc. LBTYA
30 As you can see above, convertible notes are the name of the game for Soros Fund Management. George Soros hedge fund turned family office holds six of its top ten positions in the form of notes instead of equity. Micron Technology (MU) notes continues to be their top holding. Their second largest position, however, is now SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) put options as a hedge to the overall portfolio as they boosted their notional exposure by 150%. They also initiated another put option position in the quarter: PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) puts as they seek to hedge their large technology exposure. And speaking of technology, SanDisk (SNDK) notes are Soros third largest holding. They clearly prefer playing convertibles here instead of equity as they sold their SNDK common stock during the quarter. SanDisk has Key Takeaways
."/,'!"89/%6%/)':&6':;-' Sanulsk (Snuk) uendreon (unun) Mead !ohnson nuLrlLlon (M!n) vlacom (vlA.8) uS SLeel (x) nll Poldlngs (nlPu) LchoSLar (SA1S) Coogle (CCCC) Walgreen (WAC) had a very volatile past few weeks after the company posted weak guidance that generated sufficient investor concern. Over the past few months, SNDK shares are down 32% but Soros at least exited their common stock before the carnage. Two brand new stakes for George Soros firm worth highlighting are Lucent Technologies (LU) notes as well as Digital River (DRIV) notes. In a 13G filed with the SEC recently, Soros disclosed they have continued to buy Digital River convertible bonds and now own 4,162,494 shares via these notes. The filing also discloses that they own two separate sets of notes. The majority of their position is in the 2.00% convertible bonds due 2030 with a conversion price of 49.13 (these mature on November 1 st , 2030). The second set of notes they have a much smaller stake in is the 1.25% convertible bonds due 2024 with a conversion price of 44.06. Of the equity holdings Soros does own, youll see a common theme: event- driven/catalysts. They own Sara Lee (SLE) in size as the company is completing a spin-off soon. They also own CVR Energy (CVI), which received a takeover offer from activist investor Carl Icahn. Additionally, Soros also bought more Express Scripts (ESRX), who just purchased Medco Health. Given that Soros family office owns so many positions and has higher turnover, the newsletter will only focus on their sizable positions. Be sure to head to MarketFolly to read a portfolio managers take on the potential rationale as to why Soros owns Comverse Technology (CMVT) by clicking here. View Soros Fund Managements Updated Portfolio on the Next Page Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Soros Fund Mgmt George Soros Famously broke the Bank of England with a huge bet against the British Pound
Renowned global macro hedge fund
Author of The Alchemy of Finance 31 Soros Fund Mgmt First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Continued on Next Page Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 1 Micron Technology Note MU
0.5% New $30,902 200,000 40 SPDR Metals&Mining XME CALL 0.4% New $29,820 600,000 41 JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM
0.4% New $27,882 606,400 42 LINEAR TECH NOTE LLTC
0.4% Cut -80% $27,771 26,000,000 43 Russell 2000 Index IWM PUT 0.4% Cut -50% $26,761 323,000 44 Marathon Petroleum MPC
0.4% New $25,149 580,000 45 Transocean Ltd. RIG
0.4% New $24,998 457,000
32 Next Page: Bridger Management First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Continued Soros Fund Mgmt Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 46 MERCURY COMPUTER MRCY
0.4% Cut -17% $25,110 1,895,120 47 General Electric Co. GE
0.2% Add 333% $10,524 650,000 90 CF Industries Holdings CF PUT 0.2% New $10,502 57,500
33 Robert Mignones top holdings remain largely unchanged from the last quarter. His top position continues to be United Rentals (URI) and last quarters newsletter highlighted the company in the equity analysis section as a secular tailwinds story so be sure to login and download it if you want to see the bull and bear case on URI. His hedge fund did trim the position 36% during the quarter but as mentioned above, it still remains his largest disclosed allocation. Bridger Management also trimmed its stakes in tech giants Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) by 14% and 21% each. It appears as though they zigged while other hedge funds zagged. After all, both names were consensus buys among hedge funds during the Key Takeaways
."/,'!"89/%6%/)':&6':;-' ennyMac MorLgage (M1) MAkC Surglcal (MAkC) lnhlblLex (lnPx) Cardlome harma (C8ML) ClLlgroup (C) Calls Coldman Sachs (CS) Calls Sallx harma (SLx) MA harma (MA) harmasseL ~ boughL ouL quarter. The largest brand new stake for Bridger is in TripAdvisor (TRIP). This company was spun-off from Expedia (EXPE) at the end of the fourth quarter and Bridger obviously sees a positive path ahead for TRIP. Apart from that, the only new stakes of any real size are Bridgers new positions in Charles River Labs (CRL), Wright Medical Group (WMGI), Monsanto (MON), and Cemex (CX). On the selling side of the portfolio, its definitely worth highlighting Mignones sale of 45% of his position in CareFusion (CFN). Long-time Hedge Fund Wisdom readers will recall this company was highlighted in 2010 in the second issue ever published. CFN was spun-off from Cardinal Health (CAH) and past issues have flagged large stakes held by Bridger as well as David Einhorns Greenlight Capital, Lee Ainslies Maverick Capital, and Andreas Halvorsens Viking Global. All of these funds sold CFN shares during the quarter though they all continue to be some of the companys largest holders. This activity is worth drawing attention to though, as it is the second consecutive quarter in which Bridger has substantially reduced its position size. Last quarters newsletter noted that Pharmasset was being acquired by Gilead Sciences (GILD) and wondered whether or not Mignones firm would continue to hold a stake in the combined entity. Well they did, however they sold almost 70% of the position by quarters end.
View Bridger Managements Updated Portfolio on the Next Page Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Bridger Management Roberto Mignone Typically focuses on the healthcare sector
Known for his sleuthing abilities on the short side 34 Bridger Management First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Continued on next page Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 1 United Rentals, Inc. URI
7.1% Cut -36% $101,857 2,374,848 2 Morgan Stanley MS
7.0% Unchanged $100,808 5,132,800 3 Apple Inc. AAPL
6.8% Cut -14% $97,727 163,000 4 Google Inc. GOOG
6.6% Cut -21% $95,545 149,000 5 Assured Guaranty Ltd. AGO
5.5% Unchanged $79,558 4,815,837 6 Hyatt Hotels Corporation H
0.5% New $6,773 2,070,000 38 Response Genetics, Inc RGDX
0.4% New $6,000 3,000,000 39 Pinnacle Entertainment PNK
0.4% New $5,879 510,795 40 Anthera Pharmaceuticals ANTH
0.3% Unchanged $3,619 1,637,428 41 VERASTEM, INC. VSTM
0.2% New $2,186 200,000 42 Allison Transmission ALSN
0.1% New $1,791 75,000 43 BPZ Resources, Inc. BPZ
0.1% Cut -36% $1,112 275,830 44 BPZ Resources, Inc. BPZ CALL 0.1% New $913 226,700 45 BPZ Resources Notes BPZ
0.1% Cut -37% $666 728,330
35 Bridger Management Next Page: Omega Advisors First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Continued Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 46 DexCom, Inc. DXCM
0.0% New $465 44,554 47 CurrencyShares Euro FXE PUT 0.0% Cut -99% $478 3,600 48 SPDR S&P 500 SPY PUT 0.0% New $465 3,300 49 Fortuna Silver Mines FSM
0.0% New $376 83,489 50 iShares Brazil Index EWZ
0.0% New $278 4,300 51 iShares Brazil Index EWZ PUT 0.0% New $349 5,400 52 MAP Pharmaceuticals MAPP
Sold
- 53 PHARMASSET VRUS
Sold
- 54 Salix Pharmaceuticals SLXP
Sold
- 55 Goldman Sachs GS CALL
Sold
- 56 Banco Santander-Chile BSAC
Sold
- 57 Citigroup, Inc. C CALL
Sold
- 58 Cardiome Pharma Corp. CRME
Sold
- 59 SPDR S&P 500 SPY CALL
Sold
- 60 PennyMac Mortgage PMT
Sold
- 61 PHARMASSET VRUS PUT
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- 62 MAKO Surgical Corp. MAKO
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- 63 INHIBITEX INC INHX
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36 Leon Coopermans Omega Advisors apparently decided that the first quarter was the right time to get into financials as they acquired new stakes in a plethora of too big to fail institutions such as Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), and American International Group (AIG). While these decently sized stakes are noted, the largest new position for Coopermans firm is in beleaguered wireless provider Sprint Nextel (S). This has turned a few heads as the company struggles to compete with the larger players like AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ). The upper echelon of Omegas portfolio is largely energy heavy. Six of their top eleven holdings are focused on this sector: Atlas Pipeline Partners (APL), Linn Energy (LINE), Key Takeaways
2%3'4"$565"#$-' SprlnL nexLel (S) Ccwen llnanclal (CCn) Coogle (CCCC) ClLlgroup (C) 8ank of Amerlca (8AC) Wells largo (WlC) Amerlcan lnLernaLlonal Croup (AlC) 8lacksLone Croup (8x) klnder Morgan (kMl) 8ange 8esources (88C) verlSlgn (v8Sn)
."/,'!"89/%6%/)':&6':;-' Lxpress ScrlpLs (LS8x) Aon Corp (ACn) LchoSLar (SA1S) M8lA (M8l) loresL Cll (lS1) Cablevlslon (CvC) e8ay (L8A?) Leon Cooperman View Omega Advisors Updated Portfolio on the Next Page Has returned 16% annualized over 18 years
Prior to founding Omega, he spent 25 years at Goldman Sachs and was Chief Executive Officer of Goldmans Asset Management division El Paso (EP), Transocean (RIG), and Atlas Energy (ATLS). Apart from these energy plays, Coopermans largest disclosed US equity long is SLM Corp (SLM) and he also holds large stakes in Apple (AAPL), WellPoint (WLP), and Unitedhealth (UNH). He essentially doubled his stakes in the last two during the first quarter. At the Skybridge Alternatives Conference in Las Vegas a couple of weeks ago, Cooperman reiterated his stance that US government bonds are fundamentally overvalued. He thinks that at a 2% return, bonds are risky and that in two or three years in the future everyone will be worrying about inflation and interest rates will be higher. He highlighted his holdings in AIG, Capital One (COF), and Western Union (WU) in his talk ~ all brand new holdings during the quarter. He also mentioned (as he always seems to) shares of E*Trade Financial (ETFC). Hes long pitched the company as an ideal takeover target as they get their loan losses under control and improve their retail brokerage business. Its just interesting that he chose to mention that name considering he sold 30% of his stake during the quarter. In a separate television interview, Cooperman also dismissed the idea of investing in high yield bonds as they are fully priced. He prefers to invest in cheap stocks that will yield more than bonds and are good companies that will grow over time. Commenting on his large stake in AAPL, he thinks the company is worth well over $600 (and it did reach $630 during the first quarter before selling off to current levels in the low $5xxs).
Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Omega Advisors 37 Omega Advisors First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Continued on next page Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 1 SLM Corporation SLM
0.9% New $45,166 1,465,000 43 The Blackstone Group BX
0.9% New $44,606 2,798,400 44 Given Imaging Ltd. GIVN
0.9% Cut -7% $44,415 2,371,337 45 KINDER MORGAN, INC KMI
0.9% New $42,890 1,109,700
38 Omega Advisors First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Continued Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Next Page: Coatue Management Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 46 Loral Space & Comm LORL
0.4% Cut -12% $19,076 200,000 59 WPX ENERGY INC WPX
0.4% New $18,161 1,008,364 60 SPDR S&P 500 SPY
0.4% Unchanged $17,970 127,700 61 THL Credit, Inc. TCRD
0.3% Unchanged $17,009 1,322,607 62 Family Dollar Stores Inc. FDO
0.3% New $15,187 240,000 63 Ford Motor Co. F
0.3% New $12,490 1,000,000 64 Validus Holdings VR
0.2% Add 3637% $11,798 381,200 65 SIRIUS XM Radio Inc. SIRI
0.2% New $9,332 4,040,000 66 Capital One Financial Corp. COF
0.2% New $9,755 175,000 67 Home Loan Servicing HLSS
0.1% New $6,549 469,817 68 Lam Research Corporation LRCX
0.1% New $6,608 148,100 69 Center Bancorp Inc. CNBC
0.1% Unchanged $5,466 545,000 70 SUNCOKE ENERGY SXC
0.1% New $5,121 360,414 71 Crown Holdings Inc. CCK
0.1% New $4,972 135,000 72 Dean Foods Co. DF
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- 73 Discovery Communications DISCK
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- 74 NRG Energy, Inc. NRG
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- 75 eBay Inc. EBAY
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- 76 Express Scripts Inc. ESRX
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- 77 H&R Block, Inc. HRB
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- 78 PNC Financial Services PNC
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- 79 TEKELEC INC TKLC
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- 80 Teekay Corporation TK
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- 81 Best Buy Co. Inc. BBY
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- 82 Cablevision Systems CVC
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- 83 NutriSystem Inc. NTRI
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- 84 Forest Oil Corp. FST
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- 85 Microsoft Corporation MSFT
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- 86 Ruby Tuesday, Inc. RT
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- 87 Office Depot, Inc. ODP
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- 88 Research In Motion RIMM
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- 89 iShares InvestGradeCorpBond LQD
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- 90 Warnaco Group Inc. WRC
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- 91 MedcoHealth Solutions MHS
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- 92 Aon Corporation AON
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- 93 EchoStar Corp. SATS
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- 94 Valassis Communications VCI
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- 95 GMX Resources Inc. GMXR
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- 96 MBIA Inc. MBI
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39 Coatue Managements founder Philippe Laffont spoke at the Ira Sohn Conference in New York and talked about the thesis behind two of his largest new bets. His second largest disclosed position is a new stake in Equinix (EQIX). He said that data centers are the new core and that they have a huge share of the internets backbone. Laffont likes the companys prime locations they secured through request for proposals (RFPs) because the company secured these spots before everyone else even knew how important theyd be. He points to EQIXs 50% return on equity with minimal leverage and he thinks the stock triples or more. Laffonts second pick is his fourth largest disclosed holding: Virgin Media (VMED). Of this stake, he says that everyone needs faster internet (50-100Mbps, up from 10-20 in the Key Takeaways
."/,'!"89/%6%/)':&6':;-' Wynn 8esorLs (W?nn) luslon-lC (llC) neL App (n1A) CulnSLreeL (CnS1) Creen MounLaln Coffee (CMC8) CognlzanL 1ech SoluLlons (C1SP) Wllllams Sonoma (WSM) past). As the proliferation of HD video continues, this plays right into the companys wheelhouse as they own the fastest cable broadband network in the UK. Whats also interesting he says is that the company is really buying back shares (10% this year alone, 25% in the last few years). So, they have the capacity to literally buy back all of their shares over the next 5 years. The Coatue founder also made his first- ever television appearance after the event where he touched on his firms concentrated portfolio approach. He said that, concentration is a problem over the short-run, but it sort of goes away over the long run. We try to invest over the long run and are willing to take the volatility. The less concentrated you are, the more your returns will look like the S&P. If you want to try to outperform, you have to focus on your best ideas. It is something we transmitted to investors from day one. They understand the risk. It puts a premium on being right. Laffont also touched on the Facebook IPO, saying he would like to get as many shares as possible as he really likes the management team. Its reasonable to assume that given Coatues prime broker relationships and status as a well-known tech fund that they received plenty of IPO shares. Laffont also mentioned LinkedIn (LNKD), which he also has a small position in, saying he thinks it could be a completely different company in 10 years. Lastly, he commented on his top holding: Apple (AAPL). The hedgie first got involved with the name back in 2003 and thinks the iPhone 5 and potential Apple TV are good catalysts. At 5-10% of the market, he thinks they can take much bigger market share. View Coatue Managements Portfolio on the Next Page Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Coatue Management Philippe Laffont Manages a long/short fund focused on technology, media, & telecom
One of his mantras is dare to be different
40 Coatue Management First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Next Page: Fairholme Capital Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 1 Apple Inc. AAPL
17.9% Added 15% $884,133 1,474,661 2 Equinix, Inc. EQIX
11.6% New $572,763 3,637,747 3 Google Inc. GOOG
9.8% Cut -3% $482,636 752,660 4 Virgin Media, Inc. VMED
7.0% New $345,193 13,818,739 5 Priceline.com Inc PCLN
41 Bruce Berkowitzs Fairholme is the definition of a concentrated portfolio. His latest first quarter disclosure shows a massive 36.3% of reported assets tied up in AIG (AIG). Given that he has so much money invested in the name, its obviously worth drawing attention to the information Berkowitz has revealed regarding his train of thought. He frames the company as one that trades at less than one-half tangible book value, has a fortress balance sheet, has a shareholder equity-to-assets ratio of 15%, and has a leading position in its market. Berkowitz feels that a 10% return on owners equity equals a 20% implied annual return on investment. The Fairholme man has experience with insurance companies and found one trading at attractive prices so its directly within his circle of competence. In terms of margin of safety, he feels that AIG is a situation where you pay $25 and receive $45 worth of assets. Given the volatility in the stock, he certainly has courage of conviction. With his contrarian approach, its no surprise that Fairholmes slogan is ignore the crowd. Many successful investors have reiterated the fact that your highest conviction picks should garner the most capital. Theres no secret as to what Berkowitzs top pick is. Turning to his third largest position, its Key Takeaways
."/,'!"89/%6%/)':&6':;-' Coldman Sachs (CS) also worth piecing together Berkowitzs rationale for owning Bank of America (BAC) as well. Theres an obvious theme in Fairholmes portfolio: out of favor plays. Berkowitz has revealed his thesis on BAC as well and his main reasons for owning shares are as follows: it trades at less than one third book value, its core businesses generate 1% return on assets and 10% return on equity, it has a fortress balance sheet, and it has the largest US retail deposit market share (serving one in every two US households). Berkowitz also seemingly highlights the companys status as too big to fail as a positive, saying that Bank of America is essential to global economic security. Fairholmes manager sees a 20% implied annual return on his investment in Bank of America. He says that is a reasonable return when you consider that youre buying BAC for less than half of book value. Berkowitz likes the various economic trends unfolding which he thinks will benefit the big bank: an improving job market, a stabilizing housing market, and overall improving fundamentals in the financial sector. At $7 per share, he argues that youre buying something worth $20+. Summarizing his BAC thesis, he writes, Its earnings power has been disguised by the intense provisioning for loan losses. But when the provisioning gets back to a normal level, youll start to see that incredible earnings power come down to the bottom line. And its as simple as that. For Berkowitzs advice on becoming a better money manager, head to his basic checklist for investing. View Fairholme Capitals Updated Portfolio on the Next Page Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Fairholme Capital Bruce Berkowitz Named Morningstars Fund Manager of the Decade
Manages over $10 billion and runs a highly concentrated portfolio, making him ideal to track 42 Next Page: Tiger Global Fairholme Capital First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 1 AIG AIG
0.1% Unchanged $6,485 484,700 17 Mercury General Corp MCY
0.0% New $3,101 70,900 18 Wells Fargo & Company WFC
0.0% Unchanged $1,072 31,400 19 Assured Guaranty Ltd. AGO
0.0% Unchanged $854 51,700 20 Regions Financial Corp. RF
0.0% Unchanged $138 20,900 21 Goldman Sachs Group GS
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43 The first position worth pointing out in Tiger Globals portfolio is one that wont appear on the next page because the company just completed its initial public offering (IPO): Facebook (FB). Tiger has previously owned a private stake in Facebook as they purchased 1% of the company at a $24 billion valuation. And given that FB shares now trade with a market capitalization of $104 billion, Tiger has made a pretty penny on their investment. Chase Colemans early stage tech investments in private companies have paid off handsomely as many of these budding companies have come public. As such, it should come as no surprise that Coleman was named one of the top 25 highest earning hedge fund managers of 2011. Turning to Tiger Globals first quarter portfolio activity, its very evident that they favored trimming positions more than anything. While they still hold sizable positions in their top seven holdings, they only added to one of those positions: Google (GOOG). This was par for the course in hedge fund land during the Key Takeaways
."/,'!"89/%6%/)':&6':;-' ColnsLar (CS18) Peckmann (PLk) Lndurance SpeclalLy Poldlngs (LnP) rlcellne.com (CLn) Calls Mlchael kors (kC8S) lAC lnLeracLlve (lACl) Chase Coleman View Tiger Globals Updated Portfolio on the Next Page Mentored and seeded by Julian Robertson of Tiger Management
From 2001-2007, he returned 47% on average
Descendant of Peter Stuyvesant, the man who built the wall in Wall St quarter as GOOG was a consensus buy. Tigers top two holdings of Yandex (YNDX) and Apple (AAPL) were both trimmed 25% and they also cut their stake in high-flier Priceline.com (PCLN) by 36%. PCLN was featured in the equity analysis section of the most recent issue of Hedge Fund Wisdom (Q4 2011) if you havent had a chance to read the rationale behind owning that company. The most notable sales from Tiger during the quarter, though, were their reductions in their stakes in Baidu (BIDU), Viacom (VIA.B), and Liberty Media (LMCA). They trimmed each by 64%, 70%, and 50% respectively. In terms of purchases, they were few and far between in Tigers book. Whats interesting is that instead of adding to many existing positions, they favored starting stakes in brand new companies. And even more intriguing is that instead of a tech oriented company, Tigers largest new buy is in that of Deckers (DECK), the purveyor of the trendy and fuzzy UGG boots. As you look through Chase Colemans portfolio on the next page, youll notice a few key themes. Hes playing the dominant internet plays (i.e. search engines) via Yandex, Google, and Baidu. He also has a lot of capital allocated to travel with a focus on international exposure via Priceline, MakeMyTrip, and HomeAway. Coleman also likes the big duopoly in payment processing (Mastercard & Visa) as the world continues its secular shift from using physical currency to paying with plastic (debit & credit cards). The important aspect of these two is that they bear no credit risk; they merely process the payments and take a cut.
Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Tiger Global 44 Tiger Global First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Continued on next page Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 1 YANDEX N V YNDX
18.1% Cut -25% $1,074,800 40,000,000 2 Apple Inc. AAPL
12.4% Cut -24% $734,449 1,225,000 3 Google Inc. GOOG
0.2% Cut -37% $8,834 1,666,761 40 TAL Education Group XRS
0.2% Unchanged $8,880 800,000 41 YELP INC YELP
0.1% New $4,034 150,000
45 Tiger Global Next Page: Passport Capital Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Continued Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 42 Sears Holdings SHLD
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- 43 Coinstar Inc. CSTR
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- 44 Heckmann Corp HEK
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- 45 Endurance Specialty ENH
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- 46 Validus Holdings, Ltd. VR
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- 47 Priceline.com Inc PCLN CALL
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- 48 MICHAEL KORS KORS
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- 49 IAC/InterActiveCorp. IACI
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- 50 Sears Holdings Corp SHLD PUT
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- 51 Axis Capital Holdings Ltd. AXS
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- 52 Harry Winston Diamond HWD
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- 53 Everest Re Group Ltd. RE
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Want to know what hedge funds were buying in the most recent quarter? CLICK HERE to receive the brand new issue 46 John Burbanks Passport Capital purchased a huge (in terms of notional value) put option position on the S&P 500 during the first quarter. Given that movement, it wont surprise you either to learn that Passports main Global Fund has actually been net short. Burbank is decisively bearish and has high conviction in his stance because he feels a recession is coming in the United States in the second half of the year. As the market has drifted lower lately, Burbank has to love the action. He addressed his bearishness in his first quarter letter to investors, writing, For several years now, we have said that we would raise our risk budget when we felt it was prudent. In large part this would generally require three things to occur: 1) a lower correlation regime that could benefit idiosyncratic stock selection; Key Takeaways
."/,'!"89/%6%/)':&6':;-' Adecoagro (AC8C) llgrlm's rlde (C) uS SLeel (x) Cl lndusLrles (Cl) Mead !ohnson nuLrlLlon (M!n) Mosalc (MCS) Alpha naLural 8esources (An8) MonsanLo (MCn) John Burbank View Passport Capitals Updated Portfolio on the Next Page Has returned 22% annualized
Makes plays based on macro themes; has thought markets to be overvalued for many years now
Received his MBA from Stanford & undergraduate degree from Duke 2) the potential for a less-skewed distribution between stock winners and losers; and 3) conviction in our macro bottom-up view. Since the March 2009 equity low, the S&P has rallied 122%. The Russell 2000 has rallied over 152% in that time. Given our forwardlooking economic assessment, this is the first time in a long while where we believe the best opportunity to derive idiosyncratic alpha is in security selection on the short side. Burbank feels that central bank liquidity has fueled violent rallies and that the easy money has already been made. So while he obviously has long positions (detailed on the next page), take these with a grain of salt given his net positioning to the short side. He also has stated that he favors Saudi equities on the long side. Realistically, three Saudi plays are in his top ten holdings that wont be listed on the next page: Yanbu National Petroleum (YANSAB AB), Etihad Etisalat (EEC AB), and Saudi Basic Industries (SABIC AB). Vivus (VVUS) in the US continues to be Passports top long investment. Of this stake, Burbank writes that, Vivus announced that the FDA delayed their decision date on whether to approve the obesity pill Qnexa by three months to July 17 th . We believe this delay is for more drug-labeling discussion and does not change our view that a pre-approval trial is unlikely to be required. We continue to believe that a positive outcome this summer coupled with M&A activity prior to launch of the drug in the second half of the year would create an ideal situation to maximize profits.
Q3 2010 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Passport Capital 47 Passport Capital First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Continued on next page Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 1 SPDR S&P 500 SPY PUT 27.1% New $798,586 5,675,000 2 Cytec Industries Inc. CYT
6.0% Cut -1% $176,710 2,906,900 3 iShares Russell 2000 IWM PUT 5.9% Add 386% $173,157 2,090,000 4 VIVUS Inc. VVUS
3.6% Cut -37% $104,459 2,409,100 7 Deere & Company DE PUT 2.8% New $80,900 1,000,000 8 Google Inc. GOOG
2.1% Added 393% $62,008 96,700 9 Liberty Media Interactive LINTA
2.1% Cut -27% $60,973 3,194,000 10 US Natural Gas Fund LP XUNGX PUT 2.0% New $57,312 3,600,000 11 Apple Inc. AAPL
1.9% Added 257% $54,859 91,500 12 PRETIUM RES INCCOM PVG
1.8% New $53,317 3,730,336 13 Materials Select Sector XLB PUT 1.6% New $46,952 1,270,000 14 Netflix, Inc. NFLX PUT 1.6% New $46,016 400,000 15 Wynn Resorts Ltd. WYNN
1.5% New $44,058 352,800 16 St. Jude Medical Inc. STJ PUT 1.5% New $44,310 1,000,000 17 Methanex Corp. MEOH
1.4% New $42,037 1,295,400 18 SPDR Metals & Mining XME PUT 1.4% New $40,257 810,000 19 Thoratec Corp. THOR
1.3% Cut -44% $37,634 1,116,400 20 Huntsman Corporation HUN
48 First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Continued Passport Capital Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Continued on next page Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 46 OCEAN RIG ORIG
0.1% New $3,903 94,400 71 Deckers Outdoor Corp. DECK
0.1% New $3,531 56,000 72 Deckers Outdoor Corp. DECK PUT 0.1% New $3,468 55,000 73 Targacept, Inc. TRGT CALL 0.1% New $3,210 627,000 74 China Ming Yang Wind MY
0.1% Unchanged $2,800 1,186,500 75 Western Refining Inc. WNR
0.1% New $2,388 21,400 88 Union Pacific Corporation UNP
0.1% New $2,488 23,150 89 Masimo Corporation MASI
0.1% New $2,338 100,000 90 National Oilwell Varco NOV
0.1% Unchanged $2,177 27,400
49 First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Continued Passport Capital Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Continued on next page Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 91 HSN, Inc. HSNI
0.1% Added 93% $2,206 58,000 92 zipRealty Inc. ZIPR
0.1% Unchanged $2,081 1,519,058 93 TUDOU TUDO
0.1% Added 31% $1,636 55,400 94 PulteGroup, Inc. PHM PUT 0.1% New $1,416 160,000 95 MSC Industrial Direct MSM
0.0% New $1,249 15,000 96 Baker Hughes BHI
0.0% Cut -35% $1,158 27,600 97 Research In Motion RIMM CALL 0.0% Added 143% $1,250 85,000 98 Giant Interactive Group GA
0.0% Unchanged $888 13,900 100 Celldex Therapeutics CLDX CALL 0.0% New $509 100,000 101 SandRidge Energy SD
0.0% Unchanged $392 50,000 102 Halliburton Company HAL
0.0% Unchanged $7 200 103 NCI Building Systems NCS
0.0% New $78 6,800 104 MISSION NEWENERGY MNELF
0.0% Unchanged $4 8,233 105 Watts Water Technologies WTS
0.0% New $77 1,900 106 ITC Holdings Corp. ITC
0.0% Unchanged $77 1,000 107 Tetra Tech Inc. TTEK
0.0% Unchanged $116 4,400 108 Pike Electric Corporation PIKE
0.0% New $83 10,100 109 Johnson Controls Inc. JCI
0.0% Unchanged $62 1,900 110 The Andersons, Inc. ANDE
0.0% Unchanged $107 2,200 111 Pentair, Inc. PNR
0.0% Cut -21% $90 1,900 112 Rentech, Inc. RTK
0.0% New $83 39,800 113 Cosan Ltd. CZZ
0.0% Cut -95% $79 5,300 114 AVX Corp. AVX
0.0% Unchanged $80 6,000 115 MYR Group, Inc. MYRG
0.0% Cut -50% $57 3,200 116 AO Smith Corp. AOS
0.0% New $76 1,700 117 Acuity Brands, Inc. AYI
0.0% New $82 1,300 118 Barrick Gold Corp ABX
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- 119 Shutterfly, Inc. SFLY
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- 120 The Home Depot HD PUT
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- 121 ADECOAGRO S.A. AGRO
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- 122 Pilgrim's Pride Corp PPC
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- 123 20+ Year Treasury TLT CALL
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- 124 NextEra Energy, Inc. NEE
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- 125 Arcelor Mittal MT
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- 126 United States Steel Corp. X
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- 127 Monsanto Co. MON CALL
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- 128 Rowan Companies Inc. RDC
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- 129 CF Industries Holdings CF
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- 130 Mead Johnson Nutrition MJN
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- 131 First Solar, Inc. FSLR
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- 132 AK Steel Holding Corp AKS
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- 133 Mosaic Co. MOS
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- 134 Alpha Natural Resources ANR
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- 135 Trina Solar Ltd. TSL
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50 First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Continued Passport Capital Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Next Page: Perry Capital Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 136 Wells Fargo & Company WFC PUT
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- 137 Priceline.com Inc PCLN
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- 138 YOUKU.COM INC. YOKU
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- 139 Expedia Inc. EXPE
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- 140 Suncor Energy Inc. SU CALL
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- 141 Kronos Worldwide Inc. KRO
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- 142 Quanta Services, Inc. PWR
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- 143 Dole Food Company Inc. DOLE
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- 144 Monsanto Co. MON
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- 145 Alkermes, Inc. ALKS
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- 146 Tiffany & Co. TIF
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- 147 Hexcel Corp. HXL
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- 148 Vale S.A. VALE
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- 149 Acorda Therapeutics ACOR
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- 150 AmericanCapitalAgency AGNC
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51 Richard Perrys firm started a massive new stake in pharmacy benefit manager Express Scripts (ESRX) during the quarter. They originally initiated the position as a way to play the merger between ESRX and Medco Health. But upon the conclusion of the deal, they continue to see opportunity in the combined entity. Perry Partners outlined their thesis behind ESRX in their first quarter letter to investors, writing, At the levels we bought stock, our analysis suggests the market is underestimating the earnings power of the combined company. We believe that over time the company will realize close to $1.4 billion in cost synergies, well in excess of the $1 billion management is currently guiding towards. In addition, the company should be able to resume share repurchases within 18 months once it pays down much of the leverage raised to finance the merger. The current valuation of Key Takeaways
11.5x 2013 combined earnings does not reflect that of a market leading healthcare company which expects to grow earnings by more than 15% over the next three years. The deal closed on April 2, 2012 and we continue to find the risk/reward compelling. The hedge fund firm also initiated new holdings in two gold miners: Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM) and Allied Nevada Gold (ANV). They believe that AEM will be able to create value from its assets and can further increase its dividend yield. Perry feels that ANV is undertaking a massive expansion project where it attempts to expand production six-fold and so the stock should re-rate over time. They also hypothesize that the company could be a takeover target as two of the worlds largest gold miners also reside in ANVs home state of Nevada. Perry has hedged the exposure to these individual equity plays with a basket of senior gold mining companies. The last interesting takeaway from Perrys portfolio is the fact that they completely exited their risk arbitrage plays in Motorola Mobility (MMI) and Goodrich (GR). This is a bit peculiar considering both are being taken over in the near future and have an impending catalyst. Given Perrys propensity to invest in event-driven plays, perhaps they found more compelling places to allocate capital for the time being. Lastly, while the next page shows a new stake in Avon Products (AVP) from the first quarter, note that Perry has actually significantly reduced their position recently. View Perry Capitals Updated Portfolio on the Next Page Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Perry Capital Richard Perry Average return of over 15% since inception; only 1 losing year in 22 years (2008)
Seeks to deliver strong returns with low correlations to equity markets
52 Perry Capital First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 1 Express Scripts Inc. ESRX
12.85% New $267,107 4,930,000 2 American Tower Corp. AMT
9.82% Added 12% $204,241 3,240,886 3 Yahoo! Inc. YHOO
9.53% Added 23% $198,022 13,010,675 4 DELPHI DLPH
9.06% Cut -20% $188,397 5,961,919 5 BP plc BP CALL 6.49% Cut -22% $135,000 3,000,000 6 Avon Products Inc. AVP
5.12% New $106,480 5,500,000 7 Universal American Corp UAM
0.51% New $10,668 236,755 25 Kinross Gold Corporation KGC
0.47% New $9,790 1,000,000 26 SanofiContingentValueRight GCVRZ
0.37% Cut 0% $7,628 5,650,572 27 CAESARS ENTERTAINMENT CZR
0.29% New $5,938 402,839 28 Bristol-Myers Squibb Co BMY CALL 0.06% New $1,350 40,000 29 Cisco Systems, Inc. CSCO
0.04% New $755 35,700 30 BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. BMRN
0.04% New $784 22,900 31 Edwards Lifesciences Corp. EW
0.04% New $778 10,700 32 Northrop Grumman Co NOC
0.04% New $745 12,200 33 General Motors Warrants GM/WS/A
0.04% Cut -1% $761 45,743 34 Becton, Dickinson and Co BDX
0.04% New $745 9,600 35 Arrow Electronics, Inc. ARW
0.04% New $739 17,600 36 Hyatt Hotels Corporation H
0.04% New $786 18,400 37 McGraw-Hill Companies MHP
0.04% New $771 15,900 38 Intel Corporation INTC
0.04% New $745 26,500 39 iShares Silver Trust SLV CALL 0.04% New $785 25,000 40 International Flavors IFF
0.04% New $809 13,800 41 General Mills Inc. GIS
0.04% New $753 19,100 42 Bristol-Myers Squibb BMY
0.04% New $749 22,200 43 Fidelity National Financial FNF
0.04% New $759 42,100 44 Wal-Mart Stores Inc. WMT
0.04% New $808 13,200 45 Dollar General Corporation DG
0.04% New $762 16,500
Continued on next page 53 Perry Capital First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Next Page: Glenview Capital Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 46 Essex Property Trust Inc. ESS
0.04% New $758 5,000 47 Microchip Technology Inc. MCHP
0.04% New $755 20,300 48 AFLAC Inc. AFL
0.03% New $676 14,700 49 Silver Wheaton Corp. SLW
0.03% New $608 18,300 50 Wynn Resorts Ltd. WYNN
0.03% New $574 4,600 51 Atmel Corporation ATML
0.03% New $586 59,400 52 Titanium Metals Corp TIE
0.03% New $542 40,000 53 Southern Copper SCCO
0.03% New $545 17,200 54 Pfizer Inc. PFE
0.03% New $657 29,000 55 NVIDIA Corporation NVDA
0.03% New $636 41,300 56 United Therapeutics UTHR
0.03% New $721 15,300 57 Smithfield Foods SFD
0.03% New $661 30,000 58 Morgan Stanley MS
0.03% New $568 28,900 59 Pepsico, Inc. PEP
0.03% New $531 8,000 60 SPDR Gold Shares GLD CALL 0.02% New $405 2,500 61 Sohu.com Inc. SOHU
0.02% New $513 9,300 62 Human Genome Sciences HGSI
0.02% New $494 59,900 63 Paychex Inc. PAYX
0.02% New $496 16,000 64 General Motors Warrants GM/WS/B
0.02% Cut -1% $512 45,743 65 Amazon.com Inc. AMZN
0.01% New $304 1,500 66 MBIA Inc. MBI
0.01% New $299 30,500 67 CARPENTER TECH CRS
0.01% New $245 4,700 68 ADTRAN Inc. ADTN
0.01% New $299 9,600 69 Cypress Semiconductor CY
0.01% New $234 15,000 70 The Cooper Companies Inc. COO
Sold
- 71 RBS Pfd R RBS-PR
Sold
- 72 HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDING HTZ
Sold
- 73 Dollar Thrifty Automotive DTG
Sold
- 74 MedcoHealth Solutions Inc. MHS
Sold
- 75 Motorola Mobility Holdings MMI
Sold
- 76 Walgreen Co. WAG CALL
Sold
- 77 iShares Emerging Markets EEM PUT
Sold
- 78 Goodrich Corp. GR
Sold
- 79 RBS Pfd P RBS-PP
Sold
- 80 The Cooper Companies Inc. COO CALL
Sold
- 81 AFLAC Inc. AFL PUT
Sold
- 82 Rite Aid Corp. RAD
Sold
- 83 Yahoo! Inc. YHOO CALL
Sold
- 84 Southern Union Co. SUG
Sold
- 85 General Motors GM
Sold
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54 At the Ira Sohn Conference in New York, Larry Robbins recently shared his thoughts on what hes investing in. He basically said to go long hospitals and life sciences and to short treasuries, utilities, and the defense sector. Hes not alone in the short treasuries camp as Leon Cooperman has been blasting the asset class for some time now. Robbins laid out his long thesis for hospitals by pointing out that EBITDA has grown every year for them as they offer 9% CAGR, 1% admission growth, and 2% leverage. He says hospitals benefit from Medicaid eligibility as it reduces bad debt expense. The Glenview manager pointed out that half of hospitals are non-profit and just get by. HCA Holdings (HCA) is one of his top longs and runs a private network of hospitals. Robbins points out that its unlikely that the government could unilaterally take a for profit hospitals profits from reimbursement. At price Key Takeaways
."/,'!"89/%6%/)':&6':;-' CuesL ulagnosLlcs (uCx) vlacom (vlA.8) CvS Caremark (CvS) 88 uonnelley (88u) lamlly uollar (luC) SeagaLe 1echnology (S1x) LaboraLory Corp (LP) to earnings ratio averages of 8.1x for the sector, he likes this play. In other health sector plays, Robbins started a brand new stake in Tenet Healthcare (THC) in March. He also over doubled his position in Health Management Associates (HMA). Robbins recently also provided a short idea that is worth highlighting considering the rarity in which hedge fund managers reveal them. He says to short the utility play ITC Holdings (ITC), a transmission company. He argues theyre essentially overcharging customers as the users overpay by anywhere between $260 million to $550 million. Robbins says theres no accounting issues but the company is just getting a sweetheart deal that regulators wont let go on forever. He says that if you cut the companys return on equity by 194 basis points, earnings get hit by 18%. While the consensus EPS is $4.00, he thinks it could really be $2.00. Glenview Capitals largest disclosed position continues to be Life Technologies (LIFE), a company that sells equipment and consumables to pharma & biotech companies, hospitals, etc. Most of their revenue is high margin and recurring, which is attractive. The bull case on this stock centers on its purchase of Ion Torrent (they make a genetic sequencer). Once free cashflow from this ramps up in a few years, LIFE could potentially be worth much more. Overall, the company should benefit from an aging population and strong trends in genetic technology. The potential risk with this company is that it derives over 40% of its revenue from the government and education sectors, so budget cuts could potentially put this in jeopardy. View Glenview Capitals Updated Portfolio on the Next Page Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Glenview Capital Larry Robbins Known for taking concentrated positions in large caps
Previously a trader at Leon Coopermans Omega Advisors
55 Continued on Next Page Glenview Capital First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 1 Life Technologies Corp LIFE
10.4% Cut -15% $573,927 11,755,972 2 Crown Castle International CCI
5.9% Cut -15% $327,068 6,131,756 3 Flextronics International FLEX
0.4% New $23,143 711,000 42 Express Scripts Inc. ESRX
0.4% Cut -64% $21,506 396,936 43 Apollo Group Inc. APOL
0.4% New $21,221 549,200 44 Time Warner Inc. TWX
0.3% New $14,349 380,100 45 TRIPADVISOR TRIP
0.2% New $11,967 335,500
56 First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Continued Glenview Capital Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Next Page: Viking Global Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 46 Hartford Financial HIG
0.2% New $11,472 544,200 47 HartfordFinancial Warrant HIG/WS
0.1% Unchanged $3,682 8,561,020 51 RBS Pfd N RBS-PN
0.0% Unchanged $933 57,565 52 RBS Pfd P RBS-PP
0.0% Unchanged $535 32,819 53 First American Financial FAF
0.0% New $760 45,700 54 RBS Pfd R RBS-PR
0.0% Unchanged $330 20,000 55 Quest Diagnostics Inc. DGX
Sold
- 56 Viacom Inc 6.85% Pfd VIAB
Sold
- 57 Fiserv, Inc. FISV
Sold
- 58 R.R. Donnelley & Sons RRD
Sold
- 59 CVS Caremark Corp CVS
Sold
- 60 Oracle Corp. ORCL
Sold
- 61 Family Dollar Stores Inc. FDO
Sold
- 62 Seagate Technology PLC STX
Sold
- 63 Expedia Inc. EXPE
Sold
- 64 Laboratory Corp LH
Sold
- 65 Textron Inc. TXT
Sold
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57 The first thing worth highlighting in regards to Viking Global pertains not to its portfolio, but rather to its personnel. In March, Jim Parsons (portfolio manager and management committee member) left the firm apparently due to differences regarding the direction Viking was heading. He was Key Takeaways
."/,'!"89/%6%/)':&6':;-' Clgna (Cl) CaplLal Cne (CCl) Cllead Sclences (ClLu) ledLx (lux) MeLLlfe (ML1) e8ay (L8A?) Lxpress ScrlpLs (LS8x) Chevron (Cvx) u8 PorLon (uPl) 1aLa MoLors (11M) Assured CuaranLy (ACC) loneer naLural 8esources (xu) lnhlblLex (lnPx) CheckolnL SofLware (CPk) responsible for around 15% of their portfolio (mainly in the technology, media, and telecom sector as well as financials). Viking closed its flagship fund to new investments back in October as its larger size was starting to affect its investment strategy. The main reason for pointing out this personnel change is because high-level departures have become somewhat of a trend at Viking, to the point that its a bit concerning. Before Parsons, another investment committee member, Dris Upitis, left in 2011. Additionally, David Ott, former CIO and one of the founders of the firm, left the year prior. While its obviously reassuring that the founder Andreas Halvorsen is still heading the Viking ship, its also a bit disconcerting that so many key members that have helped Viking succeed in the past are now gone (after all, Halvorsen said that Parsons made significant contributions). Vikings Global Equities III fund finished 2011 up 7.69%. After all the departures, Tom Purcell and Dan Sundheim are now tagged as co-chief investment officers. Turning to Vikings latest portfolio activity, the massive addition to their pre- existing stake in Cisco Systems (CSCO) is the headline here. Its now their top holding as they boosted the position by over 330% during the quarter. The hedge fund also began a brand new stake in Google (GOOG), as it ended the quarter as their second largest disclosed position. They also initiated a sizable stake in TripAdvisor (TRIP), the online travel website that was spun-off from Expedia (EXPE) a few months ago.
Andreas Halvorsen Viking Global View Viking Globals Updated Portfolio on the Next Page Has returned an average of 13% annually over the past decade
Has been directing more capital to Vikings best ideas & is taking a more concentrated portfolio approach than in the past Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com 58 First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Viking Global Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Continued on Next Page Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 1 Cisco Systems, Inc. CSCO
5.6% Added 335% $682,950 32,290,800 2 Google Inc. GOOG
59 Viking Global Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Continued Next: Farallon Capital Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 46 LAS VEGAS SANDS LVS
0.1% New $14,793 431,923 69 PNC Financial Services PNC
0.1% New $10,506 162,922 70 Coach Inc. COH
0.0% New $231 3,000 71 CIGNA Corporation CI
Sold
- 72 Capital One Financial Corp. COF
Sold
- 73 Gilead Sciences Inc. GILD
Sold
- 74 INHIBITEX INC INHX
Sold
- 75 Pioneer Natural Resources PXD
Sold
- 76 FedEx Corporation FDX
Sold
- 77 MetLife, Inc. MET
Sold
- 78 Assured Guaranty Ltd. AGO
Sold
- 79 eBay Inc. EBAY
Sold
- 80 Check Point Software CHKP
Sold
- 81 Alexion Pharmaceuticals ALXN
Sold
- 82 Express Scripts Inc. ESRX
Sold
- 83 Axis Capital Holdings AXS
Sold
- 84 Chevron Corp. CVX
Sold
- 85 DR Horton Inc. DHI
Sold
- 86 GRIFOLS, S.A. GRFS
Sold
- 87 Occidental Petroleum OXY
Sold
- 88 Tata Motors Ltd. TTM
Sold
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60 Thomas Steyers Farallon Capital was recently named one of the top 10 hedge funds by net gains since inception. They came in at number nine on the list with a $12.2 billion net gain since inception in 1992. Theyre the arbitrage focused hedge fund the newsletter tracks to keep an eye on what deals they see as most likely to close that offer a compelling spread. Their top holding at the end of the quarter was El Paso (EP) as the company will be taken over by Kinder Morgan (KMI). Farallon added to its EP position by 54% during the Key Takeaways
quarter and it now represents over 13.7% of their reported holdings. The deal offers EP shareholders numerous options for payment including Kinder Morgan stock, warrants, and cash in various arrangements. Steyers firm boosted its holdings in Medco Health Solutions during the quarter as they were betting on the takeover by Express Scripts (ESRX) coming to fruition. They substantially increased their sharecount by over 380%. Their wager paid off as the deal recently closed and Medco is now part of Express Scripts (ESRX). It will be interesting to see if Farallon will continue to own shares in the combined entity or if they were simply playing the deal spread and will move on to their next play. Perry Partners, profiled earlier in this issue, was also playing the deal but has determined that the new entity is also a compelling investment opportunity. Four of Farallons top five holdings are risk arbitrage plays (theyre also waiting for Motorola Mobility (MMI) to be acquired by Google (GOOG) and for Goodrich (GR) to be acquired by United Technologies (UTX)). Their fifth largest holding is intriguing in the form of Owens-Illinois (OI) shares. Some analysts believe the company is an ideal takeover target. The company manufactures and sells glass containers for beverages. It is a simple business that offers scale and has very little competition. However, there has been somewhat of a secular decline in the use of glass as beverage makers increasingly elect to package their products in plastic and aluminum containers.
Thomas Steyer Farallon Capital View Farallon Capitals Updated Portfolio on the Next Page Typically focuses on risk arbitrage strategies
Founded Farallon in 1986 & invests in equities, private investments, debt, etc.
Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com 61 First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Farallon Capital Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Continued on Next Page Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 1 El Paso Corp. EP
62 First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Continued Farallon Capital Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Next: Icahn Capital Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 46 Fuel Systems Solutions FSYS
0.26% Added 8% $12,738 486,945 47 TELUS Corporation TU
0.23% New $11,365 200,000 48 Illumina Inc. ILMN
0.21% New $10,259 195,000 49 Westport Innovations WPRT
0.20% Unchanged $9,583 234,200 50 Potash Corp POT
0.17% Unchanged $8,473 185,455 51 Fresh Del Monte Produce FDP
0.01% New $323 29,887 70 Exxon Mobil Corp. XOM PUT
Sold
- 71 Chevron Corp. CVX PUT
Sold
- 72 PHARMASSET, INC. COM VRUS
Sold
- 73 SI CORPORATION SONE
Sold
- 74 Linktone Ltd. LTON
Sold
- 75 ADVANCED ANALOGIC AATI
Sold
- 76 GeoEye, Inc. GEOY
Sold
- 77 BLUE COAT SYS BCSI
Sold
- 78 HCA HLDGS INC COM HCA
Sold
- 79 Wells Fargo & Company WFC
Sold
- 80 PHARMASSET, INC. COM VRUS PUT
Sold
- 81 SHANDA INTERACTIVE SNDA
Sold
- 82 United Rentals, Inc. URI
Sold
- 83 NYSE Euronext, Inc. NYX
Sold
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63 When Carl Icahn finally succeeded in splitting the old Motorola entity up into Motorola Mobility (MMI) and Motorola Solutions (MSI), the newsletter pondered whether he would continue to hold both companies. Well, he did hold both for a brief while at least. Icahns latest portfolio disclosure shows he has disposed of his position in Motorola Solutions (MSI). And with Motorola Mobility set to be acquired by Google (GOOG), Icahn will soon have no trace of Motorola left in his portfolio at all. Last quarters issue highlighted Icahns rapid acquisition of CVR Energy (CVI) shares. In the first quarter, he boosted his position by 229% and has made a bid for the entire company. His tender offer comes in at $30 per share and CVI currently trades at a slight premium to that offer. The reason shares are trading above his offer is because hes sweetened his bid by adding a contingent cash payment agreement which essentially provides shareholders the right to any amount above the $30 hes offering if hes able to flip the company to another buyer for an even higher price within the next nine months. And as detailed earlier in this newsletter, John Paulson has taken up Icahn on the offer as he has tendered his CVI shares into the $30 offer and is content to take the contingent value right. Paulson has done so mainly because of the extremely skewed risk/reward the opportunity provides. The Key Takeaways
Paulson & Co founder says that you essentially pay around 35-40 cents for the contingent value right and if Icahns able to sell the company for even higher, youll make a high multiple on that initial capital outlay. Its essentially treated as an option because theres defined risk and a timetable of nine months (expiration). Paulson clearly likes those odds. The only other portfolio activity from Icahn during the quarter was that he added to his position in WebMD Health (WBMD) by 18%. As to what Icahn might see in the company: WebMD is the most visited health related website in the US. The stock has suffered as its primary ad buyers (pharma companies and the like) have cut their ad spending. If WebMD is able to turn around these revenue declines and cut costs, then the stock would obviously be trading higher. The company tried to sell itself in the past unsuccessfully so it raises the question as to whether there are any natural buyers out there. For the most part in the first quarter, Icahns overall portfolio was largely unchanged. He was named one of the top 25 highest earning hedge fund managers of 2011, sliding in at the number two position on the list with $2.5 billion. View Icahn Capitals Updated Portfolio on the Next Page Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Icahn Capital Carl Icahn Known as a rabblerouser and a corporate raider
Typically takes controlling stakes & uses activism to generate shareholder value
*** This is a free past issue. The brand new issue is available at www.hedgefundwisdom.com *** 64 First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Icahn Capital Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Next: JANA Partners Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 1 Icahn Enterprises IEP
65 Jana Partners made a splash in the market when they revealed a large stake in beleaguered bookseller Barnes & Noble (BKS). Their portfolio on the next page shows they owned 5.5 million shares of the last remaining bookstore giant at the end of the first quarter. Note that since then, they continued buying into the second quarter and own around 6 million shares. While Barry Rosensteins firm are typically activist investors, they intriguingly did not pursue activist measures on BKS, instead electing to play a passive role while the likes of JANA Partners Key Takeaways
."/,'!"89/%6%/)':&6':;-' CyLec (C?1) 8ock 1enn (8k1) Llfe 1echnologles (LllL) Sunoco (Sun) 1rlpAdvlsor (18l) MarrloLL vacaLlons (vAC) PCA Poldlngs (PCA) Coogle (CCCC) 8MC SofLware (8MC) uelphl (uLP) View JANA Partners Updated Portfolio on the Next Page larger shareholders Len Riggio and John Malones Liberty lead the charge. Even bigger news pertaining to Barnes & Noble hit literally days after JANA publicly revealed its stake when Microsoft announced it had invested in BKS e-reading platform, Nook. JANA thinks a sum of the parts valuation on BKS yields $11 per share for the retail and college bookstore segment and $26 per share for the Nook segment, yielding a total of $37 per share, or around 230% upside from where they established their stake. While shares of BKS initially traded north of $25 per share on the news of Microsofts investment, theyve settled back down around the $17 range. It seems though that JANAs entire investment thesis hinges on the Nook. They note that the biggest risk to their investment in BKS is the future of the e-reader segment and the execution of monetizing it. You can read JANAs entire thesis on BKS here. At the Skybridge Alternatives Conference in Las Vegas a few weeks ago, Rosenstein commented that hes been involved in activist investing since the 1980s and he thinks todays environment is the best hes seen for it. The hedge fund manager also talked about his firms lack of exposure to financials, pointing out that he thinks the sector is too hard to analyze. Rosenstein will be presenting his newest investment ideas at the Value Investing Congress in New York City in October along with David Einhorn and numerous other hedge fund managers. Newsletter readers can receive a huge discount to the event by clicking here and entering discount code: N12MF3 Barry Rosenstein Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Has returned 14.3% annualized since inception in 2001
Value-oriented fund with an event- driven strategy which invests in companies considering or implementing change. 66 First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: JANA Partners Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Next: Pennant Capital Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 1 Marathon Petroleum MPC
11.5% Cut -61% $279,851 6,454,131 2 El Paso Corp. EP
6.6% Added 7% $160,739 5,439,559 3 DIRECTV DTV
6.5% New $157,959 3,201,441 4 Expedia Inc. EXPE
5.4% Added 29% $131,782 3,940,857 5 Energizer Holdings Inc. ENR
5.4% Added 78% $131,691 1,775,288 6 Liberty Media Corp LMCA
5.3% Added 12% $128,722 1,460,256 7 McGraw-Hill Co MHP
5.3% Cut -70% $128,205 2,645,031 8 Apple Inc. AAPL
4.9% Cut -23% $119,479 199,281 9 Coventry Health Care Inc. CVH
4.7% New $115,017 3,233,532 10 Motorola Solutions, Inc. MSI
67 Pennant Capital was largely out trimming position sizes during the first quarter of the year as they sold shares of seven of their top ten positions. That being said, none of the position sizes were reduced by meaningful size. Of their top holdings, Apple (AAPL) was the position that saw the most selling and even then they only sliced off 23% of their position. For the most part, it looks as though Pennant was just managing exposure levels. The hedge fund did do some buying during the quarter, mainly via starting new positions in Priceline.com (PCLN), WABCO (WBC), and Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), the latter being a much smaller position relative to the other two. If you missed the write-up on Priceline from last quarters issue of Hedge Fund Wisdom, be sure to login and check it out as numerous top hedge funds now own stakes. Pennants addition of WABCO is intriguing so its worth examining the potential thesis there further. The company is headquartered in Europe and as such shares have slipped as the crisis on that continent continues. WABCO stands for the Westinghouse Air Brake Company and, as its Key Takeaways
."/,'!"89/%6%/)':&6':;-' SprlnL nexLel (S) Abercromble & llLch (Anl) SymeLra llnanclal (S?A) 8abcock & Wllcox (8WC) Wlllls Croup (WSP) name implies, focuses on the production of braking supplies for vehicles. The company has high market share with a dominant competitive position and strong returns on capital (ROIC average more than 20%). The problem is that truck production and demand for brakes is highly cyclical. However, the company also sells replacement parts for its brakes to help pad the gap when new orders are slow to roll in. The reason this position is worth highlighting is because due to its cyclical nature, Pennant would be more likely to hold this investment for some time. As is often the case with cyclical plays, it can take some time for improvements in the business to translate into material share price gains. During the first quarter when Pennant was buying, shares of WBC traded as low as $45 and as high as $63. Currently, WBC has sold off with the market and shares sit around $51. Various value firms were out buying WBC in size back in the third quarter of 2011 as the markets (and WBC shares in particular) were decimated. Given that shares have now fallen back down to the average level of trading price from the first quarter when Pennant was buying, it seems logical to draw attention to this name. Pennants top ten holdings remain largely unchanged from the quarter prior. Their lower level of turnover makes them an ideal fund to track. View Pennant Capitals Updated Portfolio on the Next Page Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Pennant Capital Alan Fournier Pursues a long/short equity strategy
Before founding Pennant in 2001, he was responsible for the global equity portfolio for David Teppers Appaloosa Management
68 First Quarter 2012 Portfolio: Pennant Capital Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Rank Company Name Ticker Put/Call % of Portfolio Activity Value x $1000 # of Shares 1 DaVita, Inc. DVA
6.3% Cut -6% $279,543 3,100,181 2 TransDigm Group TDG
6.2% Cut -15% $274,754 2,373,482 3 Fidelity National Info FIS
0.4% Cut -20% $15,720 400,000 37 Canadian Natural CNQ
0.2% New $10,784 325,000 38 Amgen Inc. AMGN
0.2% Added 13% $9,176 135,000 39 Human Genome Sciences HGSI
0.1% Add 374% $3,626 440,000 40 Sprint Nextel Corp. S
Sold
- 41 Abercrombie & Fitch Co. ANF
Sold
- 42 Symetra Financial Corp SYA
Sold
- 43 The Babcock & Wilcox Co BWC
Sold
- 44 Willis Group Holdings WSH
Sold
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Next: Equity Analysis Section 69 Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Equity Analysis: Investment Thesis Summaries Overview These analytical summaries examine why a hedge fund was buying a specific stock and what their potential investment thesis could be. Written by hedge fund analysts, this section highlights stocks that saw large hedge fund buying in the quarter. When presenting an investment idea to a fund manager, an analyst outlines numerous aspects of a thesis. This section aims to briefly summarize the following bullet points:
- Company background - The business model & current situation - The investment thesis - The bull case versus the bear case - Market valuation - Potential catalysts (if any) - Hedge fund activity in the stock
This quarters issue features a write-up on a company seeing robust secular growth trends and REIT-ification optionality versus threat of low-price competition from wholesalers and fear of overcapacity:
- Equinix (EQIX)
Also included is an investment thesis summary of a company with a superior product but competition might be catching up:
- Tempur-Pedic (TPX)
Lastly, this issue features analysis of a company combating industry slowdown with company- specific growth levers (but its trading at the top of its historical valuation range):
- Autozone (AZO)
Next: Analysis of Equinix (EQIX) 3 new stocks are analyzed in the new issue which was just released. See what stocks by subscribing here 70 Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Equinix (EQIX) Investment Thesis Summary
Secular Growth Trends Hedge Fund Activity Philippe Laffonts Coatue Management and John Thalers JAT Capital both started significant new positions in Equinix (EQIX). Two Sigma, Scout Capital, Hoplite Capital, and Farallon Capital also started new positions. Lone Pine Capital and Och-Ziff increased their exposure. The stock traded in the range of $101 - $157 during the quarter, and its currently at $148. Company Background EQIX was founded in 1998 by ex-DEC managers who believed that the proliferation of internet networks and rapid growth in the infrastructure would need hubs to bring the networks together in order to efficiently exchange data. The company has become a leader in IT infrastructure collocation and network interconnections. EQIX has the most data centers globally in strategic high-density locations in order to provide close proximity to the largest number of end-users as well as companies that are outsourcing their IT.
Data centers offer access to locations with technology, power, and security required to host other companies servers. Collocation qualifies as property-generated revenue, which is relevant to the REIT structure. In addition to collocation, EQIX offers interconnections and managed infrastructure as value-added services. Interconnection refers to connecting one network to another so that they can exchange data.
If an internet user is using a network like AT&T, but he needs to access data from a company that is relying on Sprints network, then data needs to get exchanged, or hop from one network to the other. In a data transmission, data may require a number of hops if the intermediaries or facilitators dont have both networks physically located in the same area. The more hops involved in a transmission, the greater the delay. As data consumption increases exponentially and clients need ever faster access to data, e.g., high-frequency traders or video viewing, the growing need for localized ecosystems with as many networks and companies at the same place as possible is filled by companies like EQIX.
EQIX operates state-of-the art facilities with all the power, cooling, and security required. The company has targeted specific verticals with low latency needs, and worked on bringing many customers in the same locations, so that they could all benefit from faster data transfers. A great example is the financial industry, where brokers, data providers, and traders can all be hosted in machines that are very close to each other and can thus exchange data without the delay of rerouting them through different networks and data exchange providers. A Look at the Industry This section features write-ups by hedge fund analysts 71
execution is very different because they need to focus on clustering and network effects, such as EQIXs strategy of deep coverage by vertical. Separately, since collocation revenue qualifies as rental-property revenue, wholesalers have converted into REITs because of the tax efficiency of the structure: as long as 90% of annual taxable income is distributed to shareholders, the corporation doesnt pay taxes. Therefore, another barrier to competing with someone like EQIX is that value-added services do not qualify as sales generated from property ownership, which can put a REIT structure at risk (REITs have to generate at least 75% of their sales directly from property ownership).
The wholesalers are DuPont Fabros (DFT), Digital Realty (DLR), and CoreSite Realty (COR). The retailers used to be EQIX, Rackspace (RAX), Savvis (SVVS), Terremark (TMRK), and Telecity (TCY LN), but some of these companies have been recently absorbed by larger telecommunications corporations that wanted access to this high-growth industry. The remaining independents are EQIX, RAX, and TCY.
Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Secular Growth Trends Industry Background (Continued) Equinix (EQIX) The US hosting services industry is an $11bn market and consists of collocation and managed services. Collocation is provided by wholesale and retail data center operators. Wholesale data centers tend to provide an empty box, whereas retail providers bundle managed infrastructure and other value-added services.
Larger companies tend to opt for wholesale services, where they commit to 10- year contracts and larger spaces but at a much lower cost of ~$30 per month per sq.ft. Smaller companies choose 2-5 year contracts and managed services, but may end up paying more than double. Occasionally, when companies become sustainable, they transition from retail to wholesale collocation. The cost differential and similarity of the offering seemingly makes wholesale collocators and a company like EQIX direct competitors, and EQIX wouldnt compare favorably.
However, the big difference is that wholesalers cater primarily to standalone networks, i.e., customers who dont benefit particularly from interconnections. EQIXs model instead is to provide both collocation and network interconnections, which creates powerful network effects and adds value to customers. Therefore, the threat from wholesale collocators to compete on pricing or capture market share is not as big as it would seem. EQIX has built highly interconnected ecosystems: for example, a high-frequency trader derives substantial benefits from being in close proximity to various networks and in the same location as brokers and exchanges.
Even though wholesale providers could theoretically expand their service offerings, A Look at the Industry 72
21x EBITDA, in April 2011. TMRKs higher multiple can be justified by its high mix of value- added services and focus on cloud services, which accelerated VZs expansion in that high- growth space.
Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Secular Growth Trends Valuation Equinix (EQIX) Of the wholesalers, DLR is the largest player with a $7.5bn market cap and an $11.4bn EV, and it trades at 18x EV/EBITDA. DFT has a $1.6bn market cap and a $3.0bn EV, and it trades at 16x EV/EBITDA. COR has a $0.5bn market cap and a $1.0bn EV, and it trades at 15x EV/EBITDA. It was owned by Carlyle and IPOd as a REIT in November 2011. All these wholesalers are REITs, so a more appropriate valuation metric is adjusted funds from operation, which is effectively equity cashflows. However, for comparability purposes, well stick to using EV/EBITDA, which is a good proxy for relative valuations.
Of the retailers, EQIX is the largest with a $7.0bn market cap and a $9.2bn EV, and it trades at 13x EV/EBITDA. RAX is much more focused on managed IT services (customer service is a big company differentiator), it has a $6.6bn market cap and a $6.5bn EV, and it trades at 19x EV/EBITDA. The high multiple can be justified by the companys focus on cloud services, faster growth, and lower capital intensity (services vs collocation). TCY is predominantly a European player, it has a $1.5bn market cap and a $1.7bn EV, and it trades at 16x EV/EBITDA. Its premium can be justified because of its smaller size, which makes incremental growth easier to achieve, and takeover premium (EQIX is deemed too large).
SVVS was acquired by CenturyLink (CTL) for $2.4bn, which valued SVVS at 13x EBITDA, in July 2011. TMRK was acquired by Verizon (VZ) for $1.7bn, which valued the company at Industry Background (Continued) Of the retailers, EQIX is the largest with a $7 billion market cap, a $9.2 billion EV, and it trades at 13x EV/EBITDA. 73
Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Secular Growth Trends Valuation Bull Case, Bear Case & Summary On the trading side, TCY is the closest comparable to EQIX, and on the transaction side, SVVS is the most relevant. TCY trades at 16x EV/EBITDA and SVVS was acquired for 13x EBITDA. Historically, EQIX seems to trade around 10-15x EBITDA. Therefore, the current 13x multiple seems fair, though it likely already incorporates at least in part investors expectation that the company will eventually convert into a REIT. At this valuation, the company needs to deliver consistently strong results quarter after quarter. Any slip up in customer churn or pricing could cause investors to get concerned about the opportunity.
The upside from a REIT conversion can be assessed by comparing EQIX to the wholesalers, who trade at 15-18x EBITDA. Assuming a mid-range multiple of 16.5x would imply upside of 35%. At DLRs multiple, EQIX would have a 50% upside. EQIX is projected to grow faster than the REIT wholesalers in the next few years as it can utilize its strong cashflow and has many opportunities to expand. This would justify a premium multiple, but the uncertainty in the timing of the conversion is an offset.
It is more difficult to assess the probability and timing of a potential conversion. In order to qualify for a REIT, EQIX needs to generate at least 75% of rental-type sales and dividend at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders every year. On the former, EQIXs sales mix is currently very close to the 75% minimum requirement, which doesnt give it a lot of room for any change in the mix and limits its expansion opportunities into more service-based revenue. On the latter, it currently has high CAPEX plans for the next few years, so converting at this point might be premature because it would limit its capital flexibility.
There are tradeoffs to the REIT structure, and it may be that EQIXs business model may not have matured enough yet to pursue a conversion. The timeframe from starting the process, preparing the company, and eventually converting into a REIT is estimated at 2 years based on the recent experience at American Tower (AMT). Since EQIX is currently just evaluating the option, it could be a 3-5 year event.
Equinix (EQIX)
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Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Secular Growth Trends Next: Analysis of Tempur-Pedic (TPX) Equinix (EQIX) The Bull Case EQIX is the leading pure-play retail data center provider. It has successfully created deep ecosystems across a number of verticals, which create network effects that translate into barriers to entry, growth opportunities, and pricing power. EQIX is a way to play the growth in digital data consumption, driven by a secular growth trend in cloud and media. In addition, EQIX has the option to convert into a REIT structure, which will provide tax efficiency and a large number of substantial incremental stockholders. Compared to its historical multiple, EQIX trades at a reasonable valuation, but compared to REITs in the same industry (wholesale data centers) it could have an upside of 30-50%.
Summary
EQIX is a leader in a market fueled by strong secular growth trends and it trades at a reasonable multiple. Substantial upside can come from market outgrowth or from the conversion into a tax-efficient REIT structure. On the other hand, the REIT structure has been under evaluation for years, and it takes years to implement. EQIXs business and strategy may not be compatible with the REIT structure. Also, it faces increasing competition from wholesale data center providers, who offer a much cheaper alternative.
The Bear Case The company has been exploring a REIT conversion for years, so it may not happen in the near term. In the meantime it is at least fully valued. Even though 95% of its sales are considered recurring, they are subject to ~3 year contracts as opposed to 10 years for REITs, which have much more stable cashflows. There are competitive threats from the REIT wholesalers, who offer substantial cost-savings, and from large companies building their own infrastructure, e.g., Amazon and Google building their own data centers. Another key risk that investors are keenly aware of is the threat of a supply glut coming from over-expansion. New facilities need to be added at a very measured pace in order to avoid the post-internet bubble situation, when there was an overcapacity of network facilities that led to depressed prices and company liquidations.
*** Since this analysis was published, EQIX is up over 45% *** 75 Tempur-Pedic (TPX) TPX is headquartered in Lexington, KY, has annual sales of $1.4bn, and a market capitalization of $2.9bn. It is the largest manufacturer, marketer, and distributor of specialty bedding (no springs or coils) with ~25% market share. It makes high-end mattresses that are more comfortable because they use temperature-sensitive high-density visco-elastic (memory foam) material that conforms to your body. Its beds and pillows relieve pressure and align the neck and spine, thus alleviating back pain. The beds are typically priced at more than $1K. The primary competitor is Select Comfort (SCSS), which makes its own specialty bed, the Sleep Number bed, which allows a couple of set the firmness on their side of the bed individually.
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) developed a visco-elastic pressure-relieving material to cushion astronauts from the G-force experienced during lift-off, a material that became available to the public in the 1980s. A Swedish company developed a commercial material in the early 1990s and produced the first Tempur-Pedic mattress. The owners of the Swedish company gave the rights to a company that was formed in the US to introduce the mattress to the market. This company, along with other international distributors of the mattresses merged in the late 1990s. In late 2002, the private equity firms TA Associates and Friedman, Fleischer and Lowe bought the holding company for ~$400mm, and then took it public in December 2003. Mattress companies have been the target of private equity firms because the bedding market is quite stable and the industry has very low capital investment requirements. The high cashflow generation means that the companies can support high loads of debt, repay them quickly, and buy back shares. However, in the case of Tempur-Pedic, the investment was made to support expansion because of the large market opportunity with a superior and differentiated product.
TPXs strategy is to be very focused on customer needs and innovate its bedding in order to always offer the most comfortable sleeping surfaces possible. More than 2/3 of its sales come from mattresses, 90% of which are sold through the retail channel (furniture stores) and the rest are sold direct, through chiropractors, or 3 rd -party distributors. Retail sales carry a 50% gross margin, while direct sales have an 80% margin. 2/3 of the sales are domestic with a 50% gross and 20% operating margin; the international sales have 5-10% higher margins and are growing faster due to the lower penetration. The other 1/3 of sales comes from pillows, adjustable bed bases, and other products, which can have even higher margins.
TPX IPO'd in mid-Dec 2003 at $14 and hit a pre-crisis peak of $37 in late 2007. It troughed below $5 in March 2009, and in mid-April 2012 hit its all-time high of $86. During 1Q12, the stock traded in the range of $53 to $84. Since disappointing investors on its earnings call on April 19, it has dropped 45% to $46. After it IPO'd, TPX had $600mm in annual sales and was trading at ~10x EV/EBITDA. By late 2007, when the stock price hit a high, the sales run-rate had almost doubled. But by mid-2009 it had dropped close to its IPO levels. Since the financial crisis, it has doubled. Company Background John Thalers JAT Capital bought Tempur-Pedic (TPX) in Q1, allocating 10% of its reported assets, making it its largest disclosed position. Conatus Capital also bought a new stake. Hedge Fund Activity Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com Growth Story 76 Tempur-Pedic (TPX)
Growth Story The US mattress market is a $6bn industry, and the international market is double the size. Traditional mattresses are made with coils or springs and account for 90% of the units but 75% of the sales because of their lower average sales price (ASP). Specialty mattresses dont use coils or springs but rather rely on specialty materials. They account for the rest of the units and sales, with an ASP usually 3.5x that of a traditional mattress. Historically, the industry has been dominated by 4 large players who control >50% of the market: Select Comfort, Sealy, Simmons, and Serta. The first two are public and the last two are private companies. They are referred to as the 4Ss. Select Comfort (SCSS) has $750mm sales and a $1.4bn market cap. SCSS is TPXs main competitor in specialty bedding and is considered a rapidly rising major player in the segment with its Sleep Number bed. The company was formed in 1987 from an employee who left Comfortair, a company that invented adjustable air-supported sleep systems. As it is smaller and has lower brand awareness, it is considered to have the highest growth potential. Sealy (ZZ) used to be the leading mattress manufacturer, but it has recently been overtaken as its sales have been on a decline. It has been unable to compete in the high-growth specialty bedding segment. It is the maker of the PosturPedic brand and has $1.2bn sales, but its market cap is only $165mm, 1/10 th of what it was in 2007. It was bought by KKR (the companys 3 rd private equity owner) from Bain Capital for $1.5bn in 2004, but since the IPO in 2006 the stock price has declined ~90%. The company was founded in the late 1800s. Simmons is a private company, has a 135-year history in the industry, and is the maker of the BeautyRest and NaturalCare Industry Background Valuation Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com brands. Serta has an 80-year history, is the private company that makes the PerfectSleeper bed, and is known for its counting-sheep commercials. The vast majority of sales in the industry occur through the retail channel, which is highly fragmented (local furniture stores). Stores have a certain number of slots on the floor, which refer to the spaces where a bed set can be shown. Usually, more than half of the slots go to the dominant players (the 4Ss), where one of them usually takes a majority share; the rest go to specialty beds and smaller brands. Given that many specialty beds cost upwards of $1K, they are a highly discretionary item. As incomes rise and customers learn the benefits of specialty bedding, this segment increases penetration. However, during tough economic conditions, sales can be more volatile because of the higher price point. For example, the mattress industry unit sales declined 8% in 2008, whereas specialty units dropped by more than twice that. Pricing had to adjust substantially the following year for the sector to stabilize, with specialty mattress ASPs down ~15% (traditional ASPs were down half that). Customers usually purchase a new bed every 7-10 years. The fact that customers are out of the market for such a long period of time allows the industry to have some pricing power, since price increases are difficult to notice and interpret. Further confusing customers and making historical as well as cross-brand comparisons more difficult is the proliferation of SKUs (some companies offering more than 100 different beds). As a result, the industry has been successful at raising prices by a few percentage points annually.
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Tempur-Pedic (TPX) In 1Q, the stock traded in the range of $53 - $84, and its currently at $46. Analysts expect the mattress industry to grow at a rate of only a few percent over the next few years, but specialty bedding is forecasted to grow 2-3x as fast. TPX also has international growth opportunities, where its penetration is significantly lower than in the US. It is estimated that TPX will be able to grow top line at a 15% clip for at least a few years. EPS should grow at >20% based on operating leverage and free cashflow deployment in the form of share buybacks.
TPX has a market cap of $2.9bn and net debt of $0.4bn for an EV of $3.4bn. It trades at 8.3x 2011 EBITDA and 7.6x consensus 2012 EBITDA. Historically, it has traded in the 6-12x LTM EBITDA range, with an average of ~9x, which would imply a <10% upside. On a P/E basis, it trades at 14x 2011 EPS, 12x 2012 EPS, and 10x 2013 EPS. Historically, it has usually traded in the 10-30x range, averaging 20x. However, as the company is transitioning from a high-growth, low-hanging-fruit story to a more mature company where growth comes from tougher incremental penetration and its facing increasing competition from other established layers, the multiple will probably have to compress. A mid-to-lower range 15-17.5x multiple sounds reasonable, which would imply 7-25% upside.
The two publicly-traded peers are SCSS and ZZ, with SCSS being a more direct comparable to TPX. SCSS has a market cap of $1.4bn and an EV of $1.2bn. It trades at an EV/EBITDA of 11x LTM and almost 9x 2012, and a P/E of 21x LTM, 17x 2012 and 14x 2013. It is smaller than TPX $750mm sales, so it is considered to have higher growth potential as it catches up with a very similar strategy and business model.
ZZ is a bigger player in traditional mattresses and is highly levered following the LBO recapitalization by KKR in 2004. It has a market cap of $165mm and an EV of $850mm. It is trading at an EV/EBITDA of 7x LTM and 2012 as analysts dont project any growth, and a P/E of ~40x for both LTM and 2012. As a highly levered company that is close to breakeven in terms of profitability, small changes in growth or efficiency can have a dramatic impact on the P/E ratio, which is expected to drop to 16x of 2013 earnings. Despite being the worst-positioned company, ZZ has the highest 2013 EPS multiple because it is more of a turnaround story with low margins and the opportunity to compete more aggressively in the premium segment of the market.
Compared to its peers especially SCSS TPX seems to have 15% upside to SCSS 2012 EV/EBITDA multiple and 40% to SCSS 2013 EPS multiple. Assuming that SCSS deserves a premium multiple for its higher growth prospects still indicates that a ~20% might be reasonable. In early May, TPX was trading at $60 (30% higher than the current price level), and before its earnings in mid/late- April it was trading above $80 (80% higher).
Valuation Current Situation Growth Story
Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com 78
Tempur-Pedic (TPX) Following its 1Q earnings call after the market close on April 19 th , TPX shares lost 20% from $84 to $67. The company reported robust growth of 18% in sales, which was in line with analyst expectations, as were its earnings. However, the impression is that the industry grew faster than TPX, which was a big blow to the stock. Also, the company reaffirmed its 2012 guidance of $3.80-3.95 on $1.6bn of sales, which fell short of consensus of $4.06 EPS and $1.7bn sales. Analysts became less sanguine about the stocks growth prospects because of intensifying competition in the specialty bedding segment and the potential of cannibalization from the introduction of lower-priced beds.
More intense competition in specialty beds will translate into slower growth for TPX and potentially lower prices and margins. Also, TPX has been focused on the higher end of the premium segment with very few low-priced offerings. In order to continue growing, it has to expand its product line into lower-priced products. These products may satisfy some of TPXs current customers, thus resulting in a down-mix shift.
On May 7, TPX made a surprise announcement that it will be offering its Cloud Supreme mattress on sale from mid-May to July. Offering sales discounts is very uncharacteristic of TPX and goes against its strategy, which is why the market reacted so negatively. The stock lost almost 20% within a couple of days as the move was interpreted as a red flag that could signal deeper fundamental issues and slowing growth.
Current Situation Bull Case, Bear Case & Summary Growth Story
Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com 79
The company's growth cycle has matured, so it doesn't deserve the historically high valuation multiples that reflected much higher growth. The risk is that SCSS has a lot of ground to cover in terms of increasing its brand awareness and distribution before it can catch up to TPX, which means that SCSS may capture most of the incremental segment growth. In addition, the high growth of the segment has attracted significant competition. Therefore, growth may be more difficult to achieve than expected. Whats more, TPX has leading margins, but as competition intensifies it may have to give back some of its pricing power. If EPS growth doesnt materialize at >20% for the next couple of years, there is downside to the stock.
Hedge funds have been attracted to TPX because of its strong balance sheet, shareholder-friendly management, robust growth, and solid execution. It has all the ingredients to continue growing earnings at a rapid pace. However, competition is intensifying and what has made TPX successful can also be viewed as a source of risk to the relatively rich valuation: growth can slow down with more players, and margins can compress. The stock price took a big hit following disappointing guidance and concerns that the company needs to resort to discounts in order to boost sales. Summary Tempur-Pedic (TPX)
TPX is the premier specialty-bedding manufacturer and is taking market share from traditional mattresses. The combination of operating leverage and focus on cost cutting, in conjunction with aggressive share buybacks, creates a very positive earnings trajectory. TPX went through an aggressive expansion phase in the mid-2000s, so it currently has substantial excess capacity and it wont need any material CAPX in the medium term. It generates a ~7% free cashflow yield, which gets allocated primarily to share repurchases. The company has already bought back ~ 1/3 of outstanding shares since 2005.
Management is shareholder-friendly and has been delivering solid results since the financial crisis. Looking forward, specialty bedding should continue in its high growth trajectory and TPX should remain the leader in this segment because of its high-quality product, solid execution and successful introduction of new products, and penetration opportunities (expanding distribution and capturing more retail slots, both domestically and internationally).
The Bull Case Next: Analysis of AutoZone (AZO) Growth Story
Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com The Bear Case *** Since publication, shares of TPX are down over 20% (and were once down as much as 54%) on the concerns highlighted above *** 80 AZO is the largest retailer of automotive parts and accessories. It was founded in 1979 as part of a wholesale grocer by one of the grocers founders, at which time it was known as Auto Shack. Within 5 years it grew from 1 store to almost 200. At that time, the grocers management believed that the entire company was undervalued, so they approached and eventually completed a management buyout with KKR in 1984.
By 1987, it was evident that the auto parts business was the most promising division, so KKR with management decided to spin it out and sell the grocer. That was the year of the name change to AutoZone. With KKRs assistance, AZO grew very rapidly by investing in new technologies, leveraging infrastructure, and building out its store network. AZO IPOd in 1991 at a $1bn valuation. KKR retained 2/3 ownership following the IPO and eventually exited in 1996. In 1998, Eddie Lampert / RBS Partners became a significant shareholder. Currently, AZO has ~4,900 retail stores.
Company Background Steve Mandels Lone Pine Capital established a new $400 million position in AutoZone (AZO) during the quarter. Scout Capital and Hoplite Capital also started new positions in the name. Whats interesting is that many hedge funds are becoming interested in the stock just as large stakeholder Eddie Lampert and his RBS Partners have been selling shares.
Industry Background AutoZone (AZO) Hedge Fund Activity Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com
81 Industry Background (Continued) Industry Background The auto parts aftermarket has two segments: the Do It Yourself (DIY) segment, which caters to car owners looking to repair and maintain their vehicles without the help of professionals; and the Do It For Me (DIFM) or commercial segment, which caters to individuals who pay service shops for repairs and maintenance. Through commercial sales programs, retailers deliver auto parts to local garages, auto dealers, and service stations. DIY is a $44bn market and has been growing at a 4% annual rate. DIFM is a larger and highly-fragmented market growing at a slightly slower pace.
The main driver-dynamics in the industry are: the increasing age of vehicles on the road increases the demand for replacement parts as older vehicles break down more frequently (especially relevant are cars 7 years or older as they come out of warranty), the decreasing number of miles driven is negative for demand because of the slower wear and tear of the cars, increasing gas prices can make customers more budget conscious about maintenance, as well as eventually shift their focus to the purchase of new cars that are much more fuel efficient.
The auto parts aftermarket has been benefiting from a tailwind in the aftermath of the financial crisis. During the crisis, demand dropped as customers postponed maintenance and brought their auto spending to halt. However, even though miles driven declined, car maintenance isnt entirely discretionary and can only get pushed out to a certain extent, generating pent-up demand, which was manifested in the following years. As new car sales dropped dramatically, the average age of cars has been steadily increasing. The result has been strong same-store-sales growth at auto parts retailers.
However, as the economy improves, the DIY market is at risk of slowing down. It is also expected that the growth of the DIFM market will eventually outpace DIY growth as cars become increasingly complicated. This is why retailers are shifting resources towards the commercial / DIFM market, where their market share is much lower and they can grow much faster by increasing their penetration. The Big 3 have 1/3 of the DIY market but only 10% of the DIFM market. AZO, the largest retailer, still has a <2% market share in DIFM. This presents a growth opportunity for retailers as they add commercial capabilities to more of their stores. As DIY slows down, retailers will increasingly shift focus to DIFM.
There are three big retailers in the auto parts aftermarket (the Big 3): AutoZone, Advance Auto Parts, and OReilly Auto Parts. AZO is the largest player in the industry with $8bn in sales (up from $6bn in 2007) and it is the most profitable with a 21% EBITDA margin. It has a $14.5bn market cap and a $17.9bn EV, and it trades at 10x EBITDA and 17.5x EPS.
AutoZone (AZO)
Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com 82 Valuation Industry Background (Continued) Advance Auto Parts (AAP) is the 2 nd largest auto aftermarket distributor with ~3,650 stores. AAP generates slightly more than $6bn in sales (up from slightly less than $5bn in 2007) and is the least profitable with a 13% EBITDA margin. It started in 1929 as a general merchandiser with the name Advance Stores, but refocused on auto parts in the late 1980s and switched its name.
AAP executed a DIFM expansion strategy earlier than AZO, achieved organic growth but sacrificed incremental margins, and now it is cutting expenses in order to improve profitability. However, the strategy has resulted in lower margins because of the investments in a larger headcount and in lost market share in the core DIY segment, perhaps because of lost management focus. The companys same-store-sales have lagged the industry for the past couple of years.
As a result, even though AAP is the 2 nd largest in terms of distribution network, it has only a $4.9bn market cap and $5.1bn EV (valued at less than half of ORLY), and it trades at 6x EBITDA and 12x EPS. AAP trades at the lowest multiple of the Big 3 because of its lagging growth, both on same- store-sales and because it has allowed the 3 rd player, ORLY, to catch up with a much more successful acquisition-based growth strategy. Its competitors have continued to invest and may be taking market share, while AAP has been focused more on improving margins.
OReilly Auto Parts (ORLY) has ~3,800 stores and generates slightly less than $6bn in sales (up from $2.5bn in sales in 2007) with a 17% EBITDA margin. It used to be significantly smaller than AAP but caught up through aggressive growth and acquisitions, as AAP shifted towards organic growth in more recent years. ORLY started in 1957, when a parent and son team disagreed with the restructuring of the auto supply company they were working at, which would have retired the father and relocated the son, so they decided to start their own auto parts business in a market they knew well. The company became publicly traded in 1993. ORLY has an $11.8bn market cap and a $12.0bn EV, and it trades at 11x EBITDA and 23x EPS. ORLY trades at a high premium because it has been successfully growing through acquisitions that generate synergies, it has made significant investments that should reduce its inventory capital requirements going forward, and it is expected to generate incremental excess cashflow to support further share buybacks.
Two other competitors that arent part of the Big 3 are Genuine Parts Company (GPC) and CarQuest. CarQuest is a private company slightly smaller than AAP and ORLY in terms of distribution. GPC generates the same amount of sales from auto parts as AAP and ORLY, but it is a more diversified company. It distributes replacement parts for cars, as well as parts for industrial machinery and office supplies. The auto parts segment accounts for half the companys sales.
AutoZone (AZO)
Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com 83 Bull Case, Bear Case & Summary Valuation AZO has traded historically at 7-10x EBITDA and 13-18x P/E. It is currently trading at 10x EBITDA and 17.5x P/E, the top end of its range. This reflects bullish investor expectations as the companys strategy has been to take advantage of the tailwinds in the DIY market (rapidly increasing average age of cars on the road as car owners delayed new car purchasers) and invest into marketing and in its commercial segment. As a result, AZOs commercial sales have been growing at a >20% rate and its earnings have been beating consensus for 12 quarters straight. Sell-side analysts have the most conviction in this stock out of the Big 3 because of its strong execution, leading industry metrics, recent investments, and superior organic growth profile. Nevertheless, based on its historical valuation range, AZO seems fairly valued.
Compared to the public peers, AZO is usually valued at a premium forward P/E multiple to AAP and a discount to what at least used to be a smaller and faster-growing ORLY. Historically, AZO has traded at a 10-20% discount to ORLY and a similar premium to AAP. AZO currently trades at almost 15x 2012 EPS. AAPs lagging same-store-sales trends are reflected in relatively flat EPS in 2012, so it trades at 12x 2012 EPS. ORLYs faster growth is reflected in a premium multiple of 20x 2012 EPS. The trading multiples indicate that there could be some upside in AZOs shares if it can deliver consistent growth through its commercial segment, but the market seems to be a bit skeptical.
AutoZone (AZO)
Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com 84 The auto parts aftermarket retailers have been benefiting from tailwinds in the aftermath of the financial crisis, but these tailwinds are already slowing down and could reverse as the economy improves and pent-up demand for new cars starts reducing the average age of cars on the road. Nevertheless, AZO is well-positioned to continue its rapid earnings growth due to its recent investments into beefing up its commercial segment, where its market share has been lagging. In an increasingly challenging environment, AZO still has a favorable growth profile, but its valuation is already at the top of its historical range. Summary AZOs and other aftermarket auto retailers performance has benefited from the recent crisis and continued uncertainty that has translated into fewer new car purchases and more older cars on the roads. This in turn drives sales of auto parts and maintenance services. However, there is a point at which technological advances in fuel efficiency start making more economic sense as opposed to maintaining an old car. New car purchases are already on an upwards trajectory. In conjunction with high oil prices, demand for aftermarket auto parts may shrink going forward. Valuations seem extended as stocks are trading at the higher end of their historical valuation ranges.
On May 17 th , AAP held a disappointing earnings call (weak same-store-sales growth and outlook), and the stock has dropped 25% since then, while ORLY and AZO have lost <10%. Investors have interpreted AAPs weakness to be company-specific, but weakening same-store- sales could be a DIY-segment issue industry- wide. More optimistic investors have attributed the organic growth issues to the warm winter weather. The Bull Case AZO has generated high and consistent returns on capital and growth. Given macro uncertainty, it is unlikely that new car purchases will spike anytime soon, so the modest improvement in the new car market shouldnt have as large of a negative impact as investors fear. Even though the aging trend of cars on the road will slow down, AZO has more growth levers than peers because it is underpenetrated in the commercial segment, which accounts for only 15% of its sales, compared to 35-40% for peers. In addition, management has been driving high EPS growth through free cashflow deployment into share buybacks. AZO is a shareholder-friendly market leader, with demonstrated robust execution and strong performance metrics, trading at reasonable valuation levels that indicate upside potential. Consensus has consistently under-appreciated AZOs growth potential, so the forward P/E multiple may prove artificially high and may expand further.
AutoZone (AZO)
Q1 2012 www.hedgefundwisdom.com The Bear Case This concludes the Q1 2012 edition of Hedge Fund Wisdom *** We hope you enjoyed this free sample. Please CLICK HERE to subscribe *** 85
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