John Keells Holdings: Key Highlights
John Keells Holdings: Key Highlights
John Keells Holdings: Key Highlights
JKH-N - Rs.156.0
Yasas Wijethunga
Key Highlights
Email : yasas@ctclsa.lk
Phone : +94 77 0532059
27 May 2016
Sri Lanka
4Q16 EPS excluding fair value gains of Rs.3.6 (+3% YoY on a recurring basis), above our
expectations, primarily due to higher than anticipated performance in Leisure, Consumer Food &
Retail (CF&R) and Others sectors
JKHs FY17E group recurring NP forecast revised up by +5% to Rs.13,344mn (-3% YoY) largely
due to upward revisions to Leisure and Others sectors. FY18E group NP forecast at Rs.14,631mn
(-10% YoY), largely driven by Leisure and CF&R sectors
Amid recent overall market weakness, the JKH share price has fallen -13% in 2016YTD and -11%
YoY (vs. -5% and -9% decline in ASI respectively)
JKH share trades at forward PER multiples of 13.9X for FY16E and 12.7X for FY17E, on modest
EPS growth expectations. Trailing PER at 13.0x. The share currently trades at a 9% discount to
our estimated Some of The Parts (SOTP) valuation of Rs.170 (excluding 2016 warrant conversion
at Rs.171)
At current prices, JKH warrants seems significantly overvalued, with only less than six months to
expiration and remains as a near term concern
The success of the US$820mn Waterfront Project remains critical to the group, given that JKH is
continuing to develop the Integrated Resort (IR) on the same scale, despite the removal of
gaming facilities. The project encountered a delay recently, pushing completion to 2019 (vs.
2018 previously), though not expected to materially impact the long term value of the project
Whilst near term weakness may prevail, stemming from the overall momentum of the market,
medium to longer term investors may accumulate the share on current price weakness
Diversified
120
110
100
JKH-N
ASPI
90
80
26-May-15
25-Nov-15
26-May-16
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
86,706
91,852
93,282
109,436
120,094
11,532
13,037
13,807
13,344
14,631
10.6
11.5
11.6
11.2
12.3
-1.5
8.5
0.8
-3.4
9.6
18.8
15.1
12.8
13.9
12.7
N/A
1.8
16.0
N/A
1.3
3.1
3.1
7.0*
3.5
3.5
1.5
1.8
4.7
2.2
2.2
108.6
117.0
114.9
122.6
131.4
1.2
1.8
1.5
1.3
1.3
10.8
10.2
10.3
9.5
9.7
199.1
174.2
149.0
156.0
156.0
Note: Valuations are based on recurring EPS, Adj. for Capital Issues (if any); Historic Ratios are based on Y/E MPS
Warrants - FY16 - 50mn warrants to be converted to shares at Rs.171 per warrant on 13 Nov 2016
*Includes a special dividend of Rs.3.5
Forecasts not adjusted for proposed 07:08 subdivision (subject to approval)
Source: CT CLSA
The Business
Most liquid company in
CSE accounting for
~15% of market
turnover
John Keells Holdings (JKH), Sri Lankas second largest listed company, with ~7% of total market
capitalisation (excluding warrants), is a leading conglomerate with a significant presence in Leisure,
Transportation, Property Development, Financial Services, Consumer Foods and Retail (CF&R) and
Information Technology. Currently, the Leisure sector is the groups main contributor to PAT (~28%
of total PAT in FY16), with a dominant presence in the Colombo city hotel space, and owning resorts
in both Sri Lanka and the Maldives. The group is in the process of developing an Integrated Resort,
Waterfront Project at an investment of ~US$820mn, slated for completion in 2019. Given its lack
of a controlling shareholder, and ~98% free float, JKH is the local markets most liquid share,
contributing ~15% of total market turnover in 2015
JKH posted a 4Q16 recurring net profit of Rs.4,259mn (+8% YoY on a recurring basis), above our
expectations, primarily due to higher than anticipated performance in Leisure, Consumer Food &
Retail (CF&R) and Others sectors. Consequently, FY16 recurring NP amounted to Rs.13,807mn
(+6% YoY). 4Q16 recurring earnings excluding fair value gains of Rs.263mn. Meanwhile, 4Q15
reported earnings included a Rs.1,221mn capital gain on sale of 78% stake in UAL General and fair
value gains of Rs.49mn. 4Q16 recurring EPS of Rs.3.6 (+3% YoY) resulting in a FY16 recurring EPS
of Rs.11.6 (+1% YoY)
4Q15
4Q16
% YoY
FY15
FY16
% YoY
24,879
7,715
1,334
6,973
5,222
3,952
3.5
48,117
42.5
766
24,897
8,479
1,627
6,482
4,522
4,259
3.6
57,013
47.9
1,360
0.1
9.9
22.0
-7.0
-13.4
7.8
2.6
18.5
12.8
77.5
91,852
26,146
7,454
18,557
14,348
13,037
11.5
48,117
42.5
2,999
93,282
28,225
7,017
19,198
14,070
13,807
11.6
57,013
47.9
4,582
1.6
7.9
-5.9
3.5
-1.9
5.9
0.8
18.5
12.8
52.8
Sectoral Analysis
Sectoral Analysis
(Rs mn)
Composition (%)
4Q15
4Q16
4Q15
4Q16
% YoY
FY15
FY16
% YoY
Net Revenue
Transportation
Leisure
Property
Consumer Foods & Retail
Financial Services
Information Technology
Others
24,879
3,501
7,437
1,936
7,966
1,451
1,836
752
24,897
1,924
7,477
632
10,096
1,874
2,200
695
0.1
-45.1
0.5
-67.3
26.7
29.2
19.8
-7.6
91,852
13,340
23,307
5,689
29,757
9,077
7,212
3,468
93,282
10,342
24,073
4,342
36,458
7,143
8,262
2,663
1.6
-22.5
3.3
-23.7
22.5
-21.3
14.5
-23.2
100
14.1
29.9
7.8
32.0
5.8
7.4
3.0
100
7.7
30.0
2.5
40.5
7.5
8.8
2.8
4,514
709
2,012
544
656
315
90
188
4,944
9.5
704
-0.7
2,036
1.2
442
-18.8
1,053
60.5
278
-11.6
-39 >-100.0
470 >+100.0
14,434
2,335
4,855
1,422
1,795
1,798
239
1,990
15,529
2,454
4,367
1,437
3,212
1,718
96
2,245
7.6
5.1
-10.1
1.0
78.9
-4.4
-59.9
12.8
100.0
15.7
44.6
12.1
14.5
7.0
2.0
4.2
100.0
14.2
41.2
8.9
21.3
5.6
-0.8
9.5
A CT HOLDINGS
GROUP
ANDTITLE
CLSA |
GROUP
EQUITY
REPORT
Date COMPANY
Transportation Sector
4Q16 PAT of Rs.704mn (-1% YoY; 14% of group PAT); in line with our expectations.
Mediocre performance likely due to weak earnings from 100% owned oil bunkering arm,
Lanka Marine Services (LMS) whilst 42% owned associate, South Asia Gateway Terminal
(SAGT) earnings expected to have declined marginally; FY16 PAT +5% YoY to Rs.2,454mn
Oil bunkering impacted
by drop in revenue
According to JKH, LMS earnings have declined due to costs relating to an engine failure of one of
the oil barges during the quarter. Meanwhile, LMS margins believed to have increased due to
lower global oil prices (NYMEX -31% YoY and -20% QoQ), though to a limited degree as part of
the benefit expected to have passed through to an extent, amid considerable bargaining power
of customers and high competition within the industry
o
Competition in the bunkering space remains high, from players including state-owned Sri
Lanka Ports Authority (SLPA) starting bunkering operations at its newly built US$95mn ship
fueling unit in the Hambantota Port in Jun 2014. However, it is assumed that a more even
playing field has been generated for all the players, where earlier, some players had
agreements with state-owned Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC) which allowed sourcing
bunker oil at lower prices
The new player within the Colombo port, Colombo International Container Terminal (CICT),
continues to increase its presence, which is also believed to be at the expense of other
players. CICTs ability to cater to larger container vessels has enabled it to attract ships
which were previously not calling at the Colombo Port. CICT would continue to pose a
threat to SAGTs business in the near term. Government of Sri Lankas (GoSL) plans to
add more capacity in the medium term in port of Colombo is also expected to add more
pressure. However, the network creation in Colombo port would attract more ships which
would benefit all the players in the long term
Meanwhile, according to JKH, DHL Keells has performed well increasing its contribution to sector
bottom-line during 4Q16 and FY16
Sectoral PAT forecasts revised up by +7% to Rs.2,412mn for FY17E (-2% YoY, 16% of
total PAT), due to anticipated increased performance in DHL Keells and pickup in volumes at
SAGT. Meanwhile, we forecast FY18E sector PAT at Rs.2,557mn for (+6% YoY, 16% of
total PAT), with growth anticipated from steady performance in SAGT coupled with expected
recovery in LMS amid the pickup in oil prices from current lows
o
Shipping agency Maersk is expected to continue to provide relatively stable returns, though
contribution to sector bottom-line is believed to be immaterial
JKH may possibly bid for the management of container handling services of the new East
terminal of the Colombo port, with a capacity of 2.4mn TEUs. The bidding is expected to
commence in 2H2016. However, the operations in the East terminal are not anticipated to
commence until the newly opened CICT reaches a relatively sufficient level of capacity
utilization (recent newspaper articles suggested CICT handled 1.6mn TEUs in 2015; 65%
utilization). Therefore, given the uncertainty in the timelines and lack of information currently
disclosed, we have not factored such into our forecasts
Others
SAGT
SAGT Market Share - RHS
0.8
5.5
4.5
3.5
2.5
1.5
0.5
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
FY11
4Q14
2Q15
4Q15
2Q16
4Q16
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
50
45
40
35
30
25
FY16
Leisure Sector
4Q16 PAT +1% YoY to Rs.2,036mn, (41% of group PAT), above our expectations, amid a
recovery in city hotels after three consecutive quarterly declines; FY16 PAT -10% YoY to
Rs.4,367mn
FY14
FY16
1,750
FY15
City hotels : Comprise five star city hotels Cinnamon Grand (CG : 541 rooms) and Cinnamon
Lakeside (CL : 300 rooms Trans Asia Hotels - TRAN) through 79% owned listed subsidiary, Asian
Hotels & Properties (AHPL), which recorded a NP of Rs.705mn in 4Q16 (+40% YoY)
o
1,250
750
250
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
As indicated by JKH, segmental occupancy estimated to have increased to 7080% (vs. 65-70% in 4Q15), whilst ARRs are estimated to have remained
relatively flat in the range of US$130-135
Meanwhile, average LKR depreciated -1% QoQ (-7% YoY) in 4Q16 after depreciating -5%
QoQ in 3Q16
Thousands
Sri Lanka :
Tourist Arrivals (persons 000s)
210
2013
2015
240 room three star hotel in Colombo, Cinnamon Red, a ~20% owned joint venture with
Sanken Construction continued to perform well during the quarter (Share of results of
equity accounted investees for the Leisure sector increased +56% YoY Rs.12mn)
2014
2016
170
130
90
Resort hotels : Exposure through 80% owned listed subsidiary, John Keells Hotels (KHL), which
owns hotel properties in Sri Lanka (996 rooms) and Maldives (340 rooms). KHL is yet to release
4Q16 results
o
Sri Lanka resorts : As indicated by JKH, occupancy remained within the range of 8590%, whilst ARRs increased in the range of US$105-115. According to JKH, the
segment results were impacted by exchange revaluations relating to debt coupled with
employee costs incurred in line with a specific employee benefit requirement of the GoSL
Maldives resorts : the segment was impacted by slowdown in tourist arrivals of +4% YoY
to 344,160 persons in 4Q16. As indicated by JKH, occupancy declined YoY to 80-85%
in 4Q16 (vs. ~90% in 4Q15), whilst ARRs also dropped to ~US$380-385 (vs.
~US$400-410 in 4Q15)
50
Jan Mar May Jul
Sep Nov
Thousands
Maldives :
Tourist Arrivals (persons 000s)
2013
2014
2015
2016
125
100
75
Jan Mar May Jul
The Sri Lankan Hotel Management and Destination Management businesses are believed to have
contributed steadily in 4Q16, driven by a significant growth in overall tourist arrivals
Sectoral PAT forecast revised up by +7% for FY17E to Rs.4,644mn (+6% YoY, 31% of
total PAT), given improved performance in city hotels, offsetting the weak performance in the
resorts segment. FY18E PAT forecast at Rs.5,322mn (+15% YoY, 34% of total PAT),
primarily driven by rebound in resorts sector given growth in tourist arrivals coupled with
continued increased performance of Hotel Management and Destination Management businesses.
Contribution from these sectors would offset the pressure on City hotels which would see
increased competition from expected new properties set to enter Colombo in the medium term
o
The city hotel space would however witness a recovery over the long term with continued
rise in tourist arrivals and Colombo growing in recognition amongst Meetings, Incentives,
Conferences, and Exhibitions (MICE) travelers
The tourism industry would face some additional near term pressure following the corporate
income tax revision to 17.5% (previously at lower concessionary rate of 12% - however new
rate not yet implemented) and Value Added Taxes (VAT) revision to 15% (from 11% - w.e.f
02 May 2016) as per amendments to National Budget 2016
Some relief however is expected to be provided to the city hotel segment as per the
proposed 50% tax deduction which would be granted for companies engaging in
MICE tourism for five years
The mandatory registration requirement of all hotels under Sri Lanka Tourism
Development Authority (SLTDA) by 01 Jun 2016 is expected to be a beneficiary for resort
hotels as unregistered hotels are believed to be charging a lower rate with lower service
offerings. Subsequent to registration, we expect the establishments to incur higher service
related costs due to firmer regulation, leading to higher prices charged, reducing the price
disparity compared to registered establishments
Sep Nov
Increase in taxes
applicable to tourism
industry
As per JKH, city hotel earnings, which have been under pressure recently, rebounded with
increased occupancy levels, somewhat benefited from increased tourist arrivals. Tourist
arrivals to Sri Lanka increased +22% YoY to 584,818 persons in 4Q16 - business related
travel believed to have increased during the quarter reversing the mediocre trend witnessed
for the most part in 2015 due to higher level of macro policy uncertainty. Further, the
quarterly earnings also benefited by the depreciation of LKR
A CT HOLDINGS
GROUP
ANDTITLE
CLSA |
GROUP
EQUITY
REPORT
Date COMPANY
4Q16 PAT Rs.1,053mn excluding fair value gains of Rs.17mn (+61% YoY; 21% of
group PAT), above our expectations, driven by robust growth in 81% owned, Ceylon
Cold Stores (CCS); FY16 PAT excluding fair value gains +79% YoY to 3,212mn
CCS reported a 4Q16 NP of Rs.967mn (+61% YoY), led by strong performance in both its
manufacturing and retail segments
o
Improved consumer
sentiment and adverse
weather supporting
higher volumes
Total capex for CCS increased to Rs.974mn in 4Q16 (vs. Rs.208mn in 4Q15) with the mix
between manufacturing : retail standing at 38 : 62
90% owned Keells Food Products (KFP) reported a 4Q16 NP of Rs.71mn (-11% YoY) the growth have slowed down due to higher promotional expenses undertaken during 4Q16
FY17E sectoral PAT forecasts broadly maintained at Rs.3,959mn (+23% YoY, 26% of
total PAT). FY18E sectoral PAT forecast at Rs.4,452mn (+13% YoY, 28% of total PAT)
Sector is anticipated to benefit from the decrease in corporate tax rates in manufacturing
segment to 17.5% (from 28% previously), as proposed by the Prime Minister as
amendments to National Budget 2016 yet to be implemented
The removal of deemed VAT w.e.f. 01 Jan 2016 will further benefit the retail
segment PBT impact from deemed VAT for FY16 was Rs.286mn (vs. Rs.339mn in FY15),
more than offsetting the increase of VAT rate to 15%
Whilst the local consumer sentiment may face a slowdown in 2H16E, with rise in interest
rates and fiscal tightening policies, impact on CCS is expected to be limited with products
being offered considered to be relatively underpenetrated. The sector continues to be a key
beneficiary of soft global commodity prices, though the benefit would partly be offsetted by
LKR depreciation. The increase in local farm gate milk prices (from Rs.60-70 w.e.f 2Q16) is
only expected to marginally impact CCS profitability due to its ability to switch between
input sources
The retail segment is expected to continue its positive performance amid the growth in
footfall and improved efficiencies coupled with further expansion of its supermarket network
Whilst benefiting from overall increase in consumer demand, KFP is expected to slow down in
the near term with lower demand projected from HORECA customers; HORECA customers
currently assumed to be contributing to ~25% of KFP revenue
FY14
900
FY15
FY16
700
500
300
100
1Q
2Q
3Q
We expect JKH to increase its presence in CF&R by seeking opportunities in sectors such as
dairy, to complement its ice cream business, with entries into milk and yogurt via the Elephant
House brand being possible options. However, the contribution from recent ventures into sugar
free and isotonic drinks are believed to be marginal at the moment
4Q
FY14
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
FY15
FY16
FY14
1,000
FY15
FY16
750
500
250
0
1Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
Property Sector
Significant underutilized
land bank available for
future developments
4Q16 PAT of Rs.442mn, excluding fair value gains (-19% YoY; 9% of group PAT),
slightly above our expectations. Decrease in profits is due to lower revenue
recognition from 7th Sense apartment project. FY16 PAT, excluding fair value gains
+1% YoY to Rs.1,437mn
Units in both the apartment complexes OnThree20 and 7th Sense were sold in 2Q16.
According to JKH, 100% of revenue has been recognized from OnThree20 by 3Q16 and 95% of
revenue recognition was completed from 7th Sense as at 31 Mar 2016
FY17E PAT forecast marginally revised up to Rs.221mn (-85% YoY, 1% of total PAT);
significant YoY decline is due to FY17E only comprising marginal revenue recognition from 7th
Sense. Meanwhile, FY18E PAT forecast at Rs.201mn (-9% YoY, 1% of total PAT), just
comprising of rental income from investment properties
JKH has a significant land bank, of nearly seven acres in Colombo and suburbs, available for
future developments. The Groups current main focus on large scale development remains the
Waterfront Project. Meanwhile, JKH mentioned that it is evaluating a few other options at the
moment and would venture into further property developments if any opportunities arise
National Budget 2016 removed restrictions on transfer of land for certain identified investments
and upfront tax on leasing of lands (current standard rate at 15% and concessionary rate at
7.5%) w.e.f 01 Jan 2016
o
Removal of taxes and
restrictions on transfer
of land
JKHs ongoing projects such as Waterfront Project were anyway not expected to be impacted
as it falls under the Strategic Development Act, where exemptions are provided. Impact for
future developments anticipated to be limited, with projects likely to receive exemptions on a
case by case basis. Meanwhile, the new ruling provides more certainty on foreign holding
restrictions and taxation regarding future property developments by JKH
Further, relaxation on granting residential visa is considered as a positive step for the local
property sector; however the near term benefits are expected to be marginal as the costs
associated with obtaining visas are considered to be relatively high
Area
(acres)
Saleable
Area Revenue Profit
(sq ft) (Rs bn) (Rs bn)
6.5
6.3
3.8
8.4
14.6
3.2
25.2
Source: JKH
Profit
Margin
(%)
No. of
Units
Start
/Complete % Sold
Avg Selling
Price (US$
per sq ft)
Previous Projects
Emperor
294,000
8.4
2.5
29.2
100
245
Monarch
274,000
4.6
1.3
28.3
195
Jan-05 /Jan-08
100
185
OnThree20
519,000
13.3
3.3
25.0
100
175
7th Sense*
130,000
5.5
0.8
15.1
66 Apr-13 /Sep-15
100
380
358,000
16.4
3.1
19.0
Current Projects
Future Project
Waterfront
231
*JKH holds a 51% stake in the 7th Sense project through British Overseas (Pvt) Ltd
A CT HOLDINGS
GROUP
ANDTITLE
CLSA |
GROUP
EQUITY
REPORT
Date COMPANY
Mar-14 /2019
360
4Q16 PAT of Rs.278mn (-12% YoY on a recurring basis; 6% of group PAT); slightly
below our expectations, largely due to decline in performance of 96% owned Union
Assurance (UAL); FY16 PAT -4% YoY on a recurring basis to Rs.1,718mn. 4Q15 included
a Rs.1,221mn capital gain on sale of 78% stake in UAL General
UAL reported a net profit of Rs.61mn for 1Q2016/4Q16 (-56% YoY). The decline was
amid trading and fair value losses, stemming from weak equity market performance in 4Q16
(All share index declined -12% in 4Q16) coupled with the increase in interest rates (treasury bill
yields increased 334bps during the quarter to reach 10.6% as at 31 Mar 2016). Meanwhile,
Gross Written Premium (GWP) increased +23% YoY Rs.1,933mn
o UAL continues to hold a 22% stake in the general insurance business and full control of the
life insurance business. The general insurance business is expected to be listed within
the stipulated timeline (at the discretion of new owner Fairfax Asia), but the reduction
of the stake for listing purposes by UAL or Fairfax is yet to be announced, as per the minimum
10% free float requirements for new listings
General insurance
business will be listed
Meanwhile, 30% owned banking associate Nations Trust Bank (NTB) contributed with increased
earnings, largely due to lower impairment charges; NTB reported a net profit of Rs.592mn
for 1Q2016/4Q16 (+20% YoY)
o The YoY lower provisions were off a high base - 1Q2015 recorded high impairment provisions
with a one off Rs.365mn charge being provided against overdue loans, to some customers
which has been apparently made against security that has been fraudulently provided
o The National Budget 2016 proposal to restrict Banks from granting leases w.e.f 01 Jun 2016
would pressure on NTB as ~25% of its loan book consists of leasing. However, the GoSL is yet
to come up with final regulations restricting leases and commercial banks are believed to be
continually engaging with the government regarding the rule. Further, regulations on the
possibility of forming a subsidiary to grant leases is yet unclear. However there would likely be
some upper limit for LCBs in granting leases as indicated by the Finance Minister
o JKH continues to retain its 30% stake in NTB, after requesting the CBSL to extend the April
2012 deadline to comply with the mandatory reduction in NTB to 15%. JKH may also be
interested in exploring possible opportunities for acquisitions or mergers within the financial
services sector in order to increase scale and contribution
Sectoral PAT forecast maintained at Rs.1,789mn for FY17E (+4% YoY on a recurring
basis, 12% of total PAT). FY18E PAT forecast at Rs.1,801mn (+1% YoY, 11% of total
PAT), as weaker contribution expected from NTB which is anticipated to be impacted from the
slowdown in vehicle leasing (on account of the tightening measures implemented on vehicle
imports) and rising rates expected to lower the interest margins
o UAL earnings in the near term would be susceptible to movements in interest rates affecting
its fixed income portfolio. However, this is likely to be offset by continued growth in core
operations and rebound and anticipated lower volatility in its equity portfolio (ASI increased
+8% through 1Q17)
Insurance industry is
underpenetrated in Sri
Lanka
AIA
25%
16%
11%
16%
25%
2008
13% 19%
18%
Ceylinco
28%
FY14
FY15
FY16
800
600
SLIC
27%
UAL
Other
400
200
0
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
4Q16 loss after tax of -Rs.39mn (vs. a PAT Rs.90mn in 4Q15), below our expectations,
stemming from BPO operations due to a one off bad debt provision. FY16 PAT of
Rs.96mn (-60% YoY on a recurring basis). 2Q15 included a Rs.41mn non recurring
gain on sale of hotel reservation software
The sector consists of Office Automation, Samsung mobile phone distribution business, Toshiba
copier business, Software Services business and Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) operations.
JKH also launched ZTE mobile phones in Sri Lanka in Nov 2014
Sectoral PAT forecasts revised down by -45% to Rs.157mn for FY17E (+64% YoY off a
low base) and forecast at Rs.172mn for FY18E (+10% YoY). A recovery is expected in
FY18E amid expansion of the product portfolio, led by increased smart phone sales and
distribution, under the Office Automation segment
The sector remains immaterial to overall JKH group earnings and we would not rule out a
possible divestiture of sector operations in the longer term
Others Sector
4Q16 PAT of Rs.470mn, excluding fair value gains of Rs.98mn (vs. Rs.188mn in 4Q15;
10% of group PAT), above our expectations, driven by higher interest income amid the rise in
interest rates coupled with the added cash from conversion of warrants in Nov 2015 and exercise of
share options in 4Q16. FY16 PAT +13% YoY on a recurring basis to Rs.2,245mn excluding
fair value gains
o Overall net finance income increased to Rs.1,261mn (+84% YoY and +11% QoQ)
Meanwhile, plantations services segment was negatively impacted as tea prices continued to
remain at low levels. Continued challenging conditions for the local tea segment is expected to
continually hamper contribution from the plantations services segment
Sectoral PAT forecast revised up by +18% to Rs.1,924mn for FY17E (-14% YoY on
recurring basis), amid higher than anticipated increase in interest rates. FY18E PAT forecast
at Rs.1,367mn (-29% YoY)
o Interest income is expected to witness a decline over the coming years as cash will be utilized
for the IR project construction. Meanwhile, the inflow of cash from pre-sales of apartments at
the Waterfront project would partially compensate the cash position
Period
UAL General
4Q15
1,221
3Q15
610
1Q15
389
Central Hospitals
4Q14
665
2Q11
1,800
KHL - Rights
4Q10
751
A CT HOLDINGS
GROUP
ANDTITLE
CLSA |
GROUP
EQUITY
REPORT
Date COMPANY
In Jan 2016, JKH stated that that there were some unforeseen delays in the project
due to adverse weather conditions. Consequently, the project is anticipated to be
completed in 2019 (vs. 2018 previously). The project contract is believed to have agreed
upon for a pre-determined fixed price and there are no significant changes expected to the total
cost of the project. The delay is expected to only marginally lower the overall value of the
project with cash being tied up for an additional year
The change in the local political landscape in Jan 2015 prevented large-scale gaming facilities to
be operated within integrated resorts such as Waterfront. Nevertheless, Waterfront appears to
be continuing with the same scale, though returns from same are expected to be
significantly lower
The space earlier dedicated for casinos, of 150,000 sq ft is set to be used for an alternate
purpose, such as to expand conference or retail space or bring in other indoor entertainment
facilities. JKH would likely tap into the growing MICE market, primarily from India.
Supply for MICE market is currently limited in Sri Lanka and Waterfront will be a potential
beneficiary of the increase of the same. Further, the GoSLs interest in increasing MICE market
and daily revenue from a tourist, as also highlighted in National Budget 2016 would help the
establishment in the long run
The pre-sales of apartments in the two residential towers, comprising 431 units, is under way
with management noting that level of interest has been encouraging so far. Competition has
however ramped up with more high end residential complexes set to enter Colombo in
the next few years. JKH has a proven track record in the Colombo residential property
development space and increased promotion of Sri Lanka by other international property
developers are expected to bode relatively well for Waterfront
The pre-sales for the 30-storey standalone office complex is also anticipated to be receiving
positive interest. Demand for office space is likely to be positive, amid the anticipated
growth in investments and business environment in the next few years. Despite the new
additions of office space, demand would likely outweigh supply, presenting potential further
development opportunities for JKH and other industry dominant players
Waterfront appears to
be continuing with the
same scale
Increased competition
expected in high end
residential complexes
Revenue recognition to
be carried out only after
completion of project
Apartment and office space sales from the Waterfront Project are not expected to be visible
in the Property sector within the next two to three years, with management noting that
revenue recognition would be done only after completion of the project
The overall success of the Waterfront project will be dependent on new initiatives taken by JKH
to attract tourists. The project success will also depend on the level of support from and
engagement with the GoSL
Total Units
JKH
2019
431
~360
Imperial Builder
2017
205
> 231
Rajagiriya
Fairway Holdings
2016
132
> 154
Beira Lake
2017
224
> 326
Astoria
Duplication Road
AVIC
2018
350
> 260
Beira Lake
2018
182
> 315
Galle Face
ITC
2018
130
TBA
Galle Face
Shangri La
2019
198
>400
Project Name
Location
Developer
Waterfront
Colombo 02
Destiny Residency
Colombo 02
The Elements
Altair
Quoted rate
(USD/sqft)
JKH posted a net cash position of Rs.57.0bn at group level as at 31 Mar 2016 (vs.
Rs.54.9bn as at 31 Dec 2015 and Rs.48.1bn as at 31 Mar 2015)
o
JKH declared a FY16 Final Dividend of Rs.1.50 per share; XD: - 02.Jun.2016, PD: 13.Jun.2016. FY16 total DPS of Rs.7.00 (including special dividend of Rs.3.50 declared in 18
Nov 2015)
Whilst major future capex will be for the Waterfront Project, JKH is able to leverage its
strong balance sheet for expansion in other key sectors as well
Total group capex increased +78% YoY in 4Q16 to Rs.1,360mn, with CF&R and Leisure sectors
being the key beneficiaries accounting for 47% and 41% of spending respectively. FY16 capex at
Rs.4,582mn (+53% YoY) - with spending for Leisure and CF&R accounting for 60% and 32%
o
FY15
Further capex maybe incurred for CG in the near future for renovations in preparation to face
future competition
4Q16
4.5
9%
14%
6% 6%
16%
7%
14%
21%
4Q15
0.4%
45%
41%
9%
3.5
2.5
1.5
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
48
32
6.0
Leisure
5.0
Property
4.0
3.0
Others*
1.0
FY11
1,900
1,400
40
16
900
400
4Q15
2Q16
4Q16
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
2,100
4Q15
4Q16
1,550
36
50
1,000
40
28
2Q15
FY12
32
4Q14
2.0
Transportation
24
30
4Q14
2Q15
4Q15
2Q16
4Q16
450
-100
IT
Others
Share underperformed
in recent periods
The Leisure sector would be the main contributor to group earnings (~31-34% of group PAT)
followed by CF&R sector (~26-28% of group PAT) and Transportation sector (~16% of group
PAT). Lower contribution forecast from the Property sector, given that revenue from Waterfront
apartment pre-sales being recognised after project completion
Amid recent overall market weakness, the JKH share price has fallen -13% in 2016YTD and
-11% YoY (vs. -5% and -9% decline in ASI respectively)
JKH share trades at forward PER multiples of 13.9X for FY16E and 12.7X for FY17E, on
modest EPS growth expectations. Trailing PER at 13.0x
A CT HOLDINGS
GROUP
ANDTITLE
CLSA |
GROUP
EQUITY
REPORT
Date COMPANY
10
The share currently trades at a 9% discount to our estimated Some of The Parts
(SOTP) valuation of Rs.170 (excluding 2016 warrant conversion at Rs.171)
Consequently, the number of shares would increase from 1,189mn to 1,359mn - the sub
division would not increase the stated capital of the company
JKHs Nov 2016 number of warrants and respective purchase price would also be adjusted number of warrants to be increase to 57.5mn from 50.3mn, purchase price adjusted to
Rs.149.29 (from Rs.170.62)
Further, JKH announced that its Board of Directors resolved to issue share options under an
Employee Share Option Plan (Subject to Approval)
The number of options to be issued amount to 26mn, exercisable over a period of three
years (2.25% of current total stated capital) not more than 9mn shares would be issued
per year (0.75% of current total stated capital). If the proposed subdivision is approved by
the shareholders, the options will be granted based on the number of shares post subdivision
At current prices, JKH warrants seem significantly overvalued, with only less than six months to
expiration. The JKH share price needs to increase at least over 10% for the warrant conversion
to be worthwhile, which remains a near term concern
Potential catalyst to re-rate the share in the medium term would hinge upon new developments
on Waterfront Project, especially the casino aspect. Considering JKHs strong balance sheet and
track record in M&A activity, there is a possibility of the group undertaking other big ticket
projects in the near to medium term
Whilst near term weakness may prevail, stemming from the overall momentum of the market,
medium to longer term investors may accumulate the share on current price weakness
10-Sep-14
20-May-16
Source: CSE, CT CLSA
Sector
Time
Transportation
23,393
10x FY17E NP
28 Jul 2014
+4
Leisure
50,042
12x FY17E NP
CF&R
47,248
05 Nov 2014
+20
30 Jan 2015
+12
29 May 2015
+1
30 Jul 2015
05 Nov 2015
+14
+3
29 Jan 2016
-7
27 May 2016
-9
Source: CT CLSA
Property
1,784
Finance
15,080
IT
861
6x FY17E NP
413
5x FY17E NP
Unutilised Land
Net cash position
IR project
Total Value
No of Shares (mn)
Value per share (Rs.)
1,078
55,441
7,175
202,514
1,189
170
Source: CT CLSA
11
Var
% YoY
FY17E
Var %
YoY
FY18E
Var %
YoY
Transportation
2,454
5.1
2,412
-1.7
2,557
6.0
Leisure
4,367
-10.1
4,644
6.3
5,322
14.6
Property
1,437
1.0
221
-84.6
201
-9.2
3,212
78.9
3,959
23.2
4,452
12.5
Financial Services
1,718
-4.4
1,789
4.1
1,801
0.7
95.726
-59.9
157
63.7
172
9.8
2,245
12.8
1,924
-14.3
1,367
-28.9
Information Technology
Others
Group PAT
15,529
7.6
15,105
-2.7
15,871
5.1
Minority Interest
-1,722
23.2
-1,761
2.3
-1,240
-29.6
13,807
5.9
13,344
-3.4
14,631
9.6
VAT
Other
Overall Impact
Transportation
N/A
Negative
Leisure
11% to 15%
12% to 17.5%
Neutral to
Negative
11% to 15%
(Deemed VAT removed)
Retail : 28%
Manufacturing: 28% to 17.5%
Financial Services
11% to 15%
28%
JKH Group
Positive
Cessation of leasing by banks *
Encourage SME lending
-
Negative
Negative
Source: Ministry of Finance, CT CLSA
JKH
156.0
11.2
-3.4
13.9
-4.1
9.5
28.0
850,312
SPEN
80.1
7.4
25.5
10.8
0.4
7.9
69.6
59,587
DIST: Distilleries Company Of Sri Lanka, SPEN: Aitken Spence, HHL: Hemas Holdings,
~Key Sector Contribution to Group PBT
A CT HOLDINGS
GROUP
ANDTITLE
CLSA |
GROUP
EQUITY
REPORT
Date COMPANY
DIST
217.5
26.3
14.9
8.3
0.6
11.5
86.8
171,140
HHL
91.3
6.2
33.3
14.8
0.5
15.9
54.4
66,305
Source: CT CLSA
12
No. of Shares
Change
Comment
(Shares)*
Part of Malaysias
Khazanah National Bhd
1.
124,122,878
10.4
2.
Mr. S E Captain
119,937,442
10.1
3.
92,726,824
7.8
649,630
4.
43,616,626
3.7
Subsidiary of Distilleries
Co. of Sri Lanka (DIST)
5.
38,491,960
3.2
-114,270
6.
35,868,199
3.0
7.
28,979,913
2.4
-1,700,000
8.
26,234,282
2.2
9.
25,519,159
2.1
+2,533,381
10.
23,772,318
2.0
+3,634,000
11.
19,932,286
1.7
+1,000,000
12.
Mr.K Balendra
18,111,218
1.5
13.
16,438,392
1.4
+1,549,329
14.
15,062,970
1.3
15.
12,497,857
1.1
16.
11,316,145
1.0
17.
Mrs. C S De Fonseka
11,282,940
0.9
18.
Mrs. S A J De Fonseka
11,069,333
0.9
19.
Mr. R S Captain
10,675,183
0.9
-3,671,883
20.
10,558,280
0.9
696,214,205
58.5
13
Research
Consultant / Sales
Sanjeewa Fernando
sanjeewa@ctclsa.lk
+94 77 742 7439
Lasantha Iddamalgoda
lasantha@ctclsa.lk
+94 11 255 2295
+94 77 778 2103
Rohan Fernando
rohan@ctclsa.lk
+94 11 255 2297
+94 76 778 2101
Chayanika Ranasinghe
chayanika@ctclsa.lk
+94 77 237 9731
Yasas Wijethunga
yasas@ctclsa.lk
+94 77 053 2059
Gayana Jayathilake
gayanaj@ctclsa.lk
+94 11 255 2290
Maduranga Hettiarachchi
maduranga@ctclsa.lk
+94 11 255 2290
Ryan Jansz
ryan@ctclsa.lk
+94 11 255 2290
Kavindu Ranasinghe
kavindu@ctclsa.lk
+94 11 255 2290
Dyan Morris
dyan@ctclsa.lk
+94 11 255 2320
+94 77 722 4951
Manura Hemachandra
manura@ctclsa.lk
+94 77 261 4797
Rosco Todd
rosco@ctclsa.lk
+94 77 262 7233
Dhammika de Silva
dhammika@ctclsa.lk
+94 77 356 2699
Arusha Michael
arusha@ctclsa.lk
+94 77 395 6765
Nuwan Madusanka
nuwan@ctclsa.lk
+94 76 858 9722
Shirali Rodrigo
shirali@ctclsa.lk
+94 11 255 2290
Disclaimer : This document has been prepared and issued by CT CLSA Securities (Pvt) Ltd. on the basis of publicly available information, internally
developed data and other sources, believed to be reliable. Whilst all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the
opinions given are fair and reasonable, neither CT CLSA Securities (Pvt) Ltd. nor any director, officer or employee, shall in any way be responsible for the
contents. CT CLSA Securities (Pvt) Ltd. may act as a Broker in the investments which are the subject of this document or in related investments and may
have acted upon or used the information contained in this document, or the research or analysis on which it is based, before its publication. CT CLSA
Securities (Pvt) Ltd., its directors, officers or employees may also have a position or be otherwise interested in the investments referred to in this
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circumstances and, if appropriate, seek your own professional advice, including tax advice.
The markets in which CT CLSA Securities (Pvt) Ltd. operates may not have regulation governing conflict of interest over preparation and publication of
research reports (including but not limited to disclosure of perceived or actual conflict of interest) as may be found in more developed markets. Please
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