Address of Michael C. Ruppert For The Commonwealth Club - San Francisco Tuesday August 31, 2004
Address of Michael C. Ruppert For The Commonwealth Club - San Francisco Tuesday August 31, 2004
Address of Michael C. Ruppert For The Commonwealth Club - San Francisco Tuesday August 31, 2004
RUPPERT
FOR THE COMMONWEALTH CLUB – SAN FRANCISCO
TUESDAY AUGUST 31, 2004
2
MY RECORD AS A JOURNALIST AND LECTURER SHOWS THAT I HAVE
NOT EMBRACED, AND HAVE INDEED BEEN FIERCELY CRITICAL OF, MOST
OF THESE OPINION MAKERS. WHILE I AM MORE INCLINED TO FIND
KINSHIP WITH DENNIS KUCINICH, I ALSO STATE CATEGORICALLY THAT
NO POLITICAL LEADER WHO DOES NOT ADDRESS THE REAL CAUSES OF
THE PROBLEMS FACING US WILL EVER BE CONSIDERED BY ME AS A
TRUE KINDRED SOUL – OR AS A POLITICAL CHAMPION FOR THE
FUTURE.
3
I AM NOT PRONE TO OVER-ANALYZING SUCH OPPORTUNITIES. I HAVE
ALWAYS SAID THAT, IF GIVEN THE CHANCE, I WOULD WALK INTO THE
LION’S DEN OR THE DEVIL’S BEDROOM TO MAKE MY CASE AND THAT IS
WHAT I INTEND TO DO TODAY. THIS IS AS CLOSE AS I HAVE COME THUS
FAR TO EITHER. FOR HERE, I CAN SEE TONIGHT PARTS OF THE ELITE
WHOSE CONSCIOUSNESS AND ATTITUDES MUST BE CHANGED IF
HUMANITY IS TO EVEN PARTIALLY MEET THE CHALLENGES THAT ARE “IN
OUR FACES.”
FOR ANY OF YOU WHO MIGHT BE EITHER LIONS OR DEVILS I HOPE THAT
YOU HAVE HAD A GOOD MEAL RECENTLY AND ALSO THAT YOU HAVE
CHECKED YOUR PITCHFORKS AT THE DOOR. I ALSO IMPLORE THAT
YOUR EARS BE OPEN AND YOUR MINDS ACCESSIBLE.
4
LET US ALL TONIGHT TRY TO THINK OF ISSUES LARGER THAN
OURSELVES, OUR PERSONAL INTERESTS, OUR WANTS, OR OUR FEARS.
5
VOICE AND THEIR COMMITMENT WHICH HAS GIVEN RISE TO MY VOICE. I
COULD NOT AND WOULD NOT BE HERE WERE IT NOT FOR THEM.
6
I AM KNOWN AS A MAN WHO DOES NOT EXPECT PEOPLE TO TAKE HIS
WORD ON FAITH BUT WHO ASKS AND EVEN EXPECTS PEOPLE TO
CHALLENGE HIS RESEARCH, EVALUATE IT, AND REACH THEIR OWN
CONCLUSIONS.
SEPTEMBER 11TH
BOTH HERE IN THE UNITED STATES AND AROUND THE WORLD I AM NOT
ALONE IN BELIEVING THAT THE ATTACKS OF SEPTMEBER 11TH WERE
FACILITATED, ORCHESTRATED AND EXECUTED BY THE UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT. HOWEVER, THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF
MISUNDERSTANDING AND CONCLUSION JUMPING ABOUT THESE
ASSESSMENTS THAT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE EVIDENCE. I WAS
7
TRAINED AS A POLICE OFFICER AND DETECTIVE, AND FOR MANY YEARS
NOW I HAVE BEEN AN EFFECTIVE INVESTIGATIVE JOURNALIST BECAUSE
I HAVE ADHERED TO STRICT EVIDENTIARY AND INVESTIGATIVE
STANDARDS.
8
AIRCRAFT AND STAGE ATTACKS ON AMERICAN MILITARY FACILITIES
WITH THE INTENT OF BLAMING THOSE ATTACKS ON FIDEL CASTRO AND
PROMPTING THE SUBSEQUENT US INVASION AND OCCUPATION OF
CUBA.
9
SIMPLY DEFINED, PEAK OIL IS THAT MOMENT IN TIME WHEN GLOBAL OIL
– AND NATURAL GAS – PRODUCTION BEGINS AN IRREVERSIBLE AND
PERMANENT DECLINE WHICH WILL NOT YIELD OR GIVE WAY
REGARDLESS OF HOW MUCH MONEY AND EFFORT IS SPENT TRYING TO
CHANGE IT.
10
ALL EXPERTS AGREE, PEAK IS SOMETHING WE WILL ONLY KNOW OF A
CERTAINTY AS WE VIEW IT IN OUR REAR VIEW MIRRORS.
THE ATTACKS OF SEPTEMBER 11TH, 2001 WERE THE PRETEXT FOR THE
AMERICAN, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT, THE BRITISH AND ISRAELI
EMPIRES TO BEGIN SEIZING, BY FORCE, THOSE ENERGY SUPPLIES
NEEDED TO SUSTAIN THEIR POWER, HEGEMONY (WHETHER REGIONAL
OR GLOBAL) AND THEIR TEETERING ECONOMIES.
11
EXECUTING THEM. MR. CLARKE IS NOT A STUPID MAN AND I CAN ONLY
CONCLUDE THAT HE LEFT THOSE CRUMBS FOR OTHERS TO FIND.
12
THE THIRD PLANE STRUCK THE PENTAGON – ‘FARTHER THAN
THEY WERE BEFORE THEY TOOK OFF.’
WHAT SENATOR DAYTON DID NOT FULLY FOCUS ON WAS THAT, JUST A
FEW SHORT WEEKS BEFORE RELEASING ITS FINAL REPORT, THE KEAN
COMMISSION UNILATERALLY CHANGED THE TIMES OF CERTAIN KEY
EVENTS, NEGATING AND OVERRULING TESTIMONY AND EVIDENCE
PRESENTED UNDER OATH, WITHOUT HAVING RECEIVED A SINGLE NEW
PIECE OF EVIDENCE – EITHER FORMALLY OR INFORMALLY – THAT
CONTRADICTED OR CHANGED THE EVIDENCE ALREADY RECEIVED.
I’M SURE THAT THERE ARE SOME ATTORNEYS IN THE ROOM TONIGHT. I
WONDER HOW MANY OF YOU WOULD ACQUIESCE TO THE JUDGE IN A
CRIMINAL TRIAL SUBMITTING AND RULING ON EVIDENCE THAT NEITHER
THE DEFENSE NOR PROSECUTION HAD PRESENTED DURING TRIAL, BUT
WHICH THE JUDGE HAD SOMEHOW PRODUCED, WITHOUT
EXPLANATION, FROM HIS OR HER CHAMBERS. HOW WOULD YOU REACT
IF THE JUDGE THEN RULED ON THE BASIS OF THAT EVIDENCE, MAKING
NO ATTEMPT TO RECONCILE THE EVIDENCE PRESENTED BY EITHER
SIDE?
13
WHILE SENATOR DAYTON WAS ASTUTE ENOUGH TO NOTE SOME
GLARING INCONSISTENCIES AND CONTRADICTIONS IN A HIGHLY
MANIPULATED AND FREQUENTLY ALTERED EVIDENTIARY RECORD, HE
MISSED, OR CHOSE TO IGNORE OTHER ELEPHANTS SITTING
COMFORTABLY IN THE LIVING ROOM OF ONE OF THE MOST SHAMELESS
PIECES OF DISHONEST PUBLIC ACCOUNTING IN AMERICAN HISTORY.
THESE INCLUDE THE FACT THAT THE COMMISSION INEXPLICABLY
INTRODUCED, AT THE LAST MINUTE, A COMPLETELY NEW TIMELINE OF
EVENTS SURROUNDING THE RESPONSES OF THE FAA, NORAD AND THE
PENTAGON ON 9/11 IN DIRECT CONTRADICTION TO PREVIOUSLY SWORN
TESTIMONY AND EXHIBITS FROM THESE COMMANDS. IN MOST CASES
THIS EVIDENCE WAS PRESENTED BY THE SAME MEN WHO ACTUALLY
MADE KEY DECISIONS THAT DAY.
WHY?
14
THE FOLLOWING IS ONLY A PARTIAL DESCRIPTION OF SOME OF THE
MORE OBVIOUS CONFLICTS WITHIN THE KEAN COMMISSION.
15
RELATIONS WITH KHALID BIN MAHFOUZ, WHEN HE WAS IN THE TEXAS
OIL BUSINESS. BOTH GEORGE W. BUSH AND KHALID BIN-MAHFOUZ
WERE ALSO IMPLICATED IN THE BCCI SCANDAL CLOSELY TIED TO THE
IRAN-CONTRA AND SAVINGS AND LOAN SCANDALS.
16
THE AMERICAN HOSTAGES HELD AT THE US EMBASSY IN TEHRAN. THE
DEAL WAS THAT THE HOSTAGES WOULD BE RELEASED AFTER THE
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SO THAT JIMMY CARTER COULD NOT BENEFIT
FROM THEIR EMANCIPATION DURING THE CAMPAIGN. IN THIS
PROGENITOR OF THE IRAN-CONTRA SCANDAL MILITARY WEAPONS
WERE PROMISED TO THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT IN EXCHANGE FOR ITS
COOPERATION. THE EVIDENCE WAS SERIOUS ENOUGH TO WARRANT
CONGRESSIONAL HEARINGS WHICH WERE ULTIMATELY CHAIRED BY
THEN CONGRESSMAN HAMILTON.
17
IN 1994 AND 1995, WHILE LIVING IN WASHINGTON, I WAS A REGULAR
ATTENDEE AT MCLENDON’S WEEKLY STUDY GROUP AT THE NATIONAL
PRESS CLUB AND LATER AT HER RESIDENCE ON CONNECTICUT
AVENUE. AFTER SHE PASSED, THE NATIONAL PRESS CLUB RENAMED
ONE OF ITS CONFERENCE ROOMS AS “THE MCLENDON ROOM.” IN 1992
MCLENDON OFFERED HER OBSERVATIONS ON HAMILTON’S BEHAVIOR
AS THE CHIEF “FACT-FINDER” AND CHAIR OF THE OCTOBER SURPRISE
AND IRAN-CONTRA COMMITTEES.
18
THE GREATEST CRIMES OF THE ERA; CRIMES COMMITTED BY A LITANY
OF WELL-KNOWN GOVERNMENT OPERATIVES. AT THE TIME, HAMILTON
WAS THE CHAIRMAN OF THE HOUSE PERMANENT SELECT COMMITTEE
ON INTELLIGENCE.
19
ON THE IRAN-CONTRA INVESTIGATION. CHENEY ALREADY
ENJOYED A FAVORABLE REPUTATION IN WASHINGTON AS A
STEADY CONSERVATIVE HAND.
20
PERHAPS NO MORE GLARING CONFLICT OF INTEREST ATTRACTED
OPPOSITION FROM VICTIM FAMILIES AND 9/11 ACTIVISTS THAN THAT OF
THE COMMISSION’S EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR PHILIP ZELIKOW. CONCERNS
WERE RAISED WHEN IT WAS DISCLOSED THAT ONLY TWO COMMISSION
MEMBERS AND ZELIKOW MIGHT BE ALLOWED TO SEE CERTAIN
CLASSIFIED PRESIDENTIAL RECORDS, INCLUDING THE MUCH
BALLYHOOED AND PUBLICLY DEBATED PRESIDENTIAL DAILY BRIEFING
(PDB) OF AUGUST 6, 2001.
21
THE INSIDER TRADING, ACKNOWLEDGED AND DOCUMENTED BY THE
LIKES OF CBS NEWS, BLOOMBERG, AND RESPECTED FINANCIAL
COMMENTATORS WAS GIVEN THE COMPLETE BRUSH OFF BY THE KEAN
COMMISSION IN ITS FINAL REPORT. ALL IT SAID WAS THAT OSAMA BIN
LADEN AND AL QAEDA DID NOT MAKE THE TRADES. IN MY BOOK I WILL
GIVE YOU AN IDEA OF WHO DID.
22
CLINTON ADMINISTRATION — RAISED NEW QUESTIONS ABOUT
THE INVESTIGATION’S IMPARTIALITY…
IN SPITE OF ALL THE CONTROVERSY, AND CALLS FROM MANY FOR HIS
RESIGNATION, ZELIKOW REMAINS SECURELY IN PLACE AT THE KEAN
COMMISSION TO THIS DAY.
23
JAMIE GORELICK
FREELANCE JOURNALIST JIM RAREY WRITES:
24
THE TOP TWO OFFICERS IN FIRST AMERICAN, THE NEW NAME
GIVEN FINANCIAL GENERAL BANKSHARES WHEN IT WAS TAKEN
OVER BY BCCI (KNOWN AS THE BANK OF CROOKS AND
CRIMINALS INTERNATIONAL IN THE CORRIDORS OF
WASHINGTON) WITH THE HELP OF THE JACKSON
STEPHENS/LIPPO WORTHEN BANK AND THE ROSE LAW FIRM.
25
HAVING CREATED AN “INTELLIGENCE WALL” BETWEEN THE FBI AND THE
CIA.
RICHARD BEN-VENISTE
BEN-VENISTE IS A HIGH-VISIBILITY WASHINGTON ATTORNEY
AND DEMOCRATIC POWER BROKER. HE WAS DEMOCRAT
COUNSEL TO THE SENATE WHITEWATER INVESTIGATION
26
WHERE HE BLOCKED INQUIRIES ABOUT WEBSTER HUBBELL’S
HIRING BY THE LIPPO GROUP AND OTHERS ADMINISTERED BY
TRUMAN ARNOLD.
SLADE GORTON
SLADE GORTON IS A FORMER SENATOR FROM THE STATE OF
WASHINGTON. AFTER HE LOST HIS REELECTION BID IN 2000,
HE JOINED THE SEATTLE LAW FIRM OF PRESTON, GATES &
ELLIS, WHICH SPECIALIZES IN ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES.
27
IF JURY SELECTION RULES WERE BEING USED, GORTON
WOULD PROBABLY BE DISMISSED FROM CONSIDERATION FOR
THE COMMISSION FOR CAUSE [A TECHNICAL TERM FOR
CONFLICT OF INTEREST]. TWO DAYS AFTER THE 9/11 ATTACKS
HE TOLD A PUBLIC-TELEVISION AUDIENCE THERE WAS
NOTHING GOVERNMENT INTELLIGENCE OFFICIALS COULD
HAVE DONE TO THWART THE ATTACK, ACCORDING TO THE
SEATTLE TIMES. THE TIMES QUOTES GORTON AS SAYING, “I
DOUBT WE CAN EXPECT TO GET TOO MUCH INSIDE
INFORMATION NO MATTER WHAT WE DO.”
28
SUCH INVESTIGATIONS. NO REAL CASE HAS EVER BEEN MADE THAT
WOULD PASS FIRST MUSTER OF EVEN A JUNIOR ASSISTANT DISTRICT
ATTORNEY.
29
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS HAS TOLD US THAT FIGHTER AIRCRAFT WERE
SCRAMBLED AND FLYING BESIDE ERRANT COMMERCIAL AND PRIVATE
AIR TRAFFIC WITHIN MINUTES OF THE SLIGHTEST DEVIATION SOME 67
TIMES IN THE CALENDAR YEAR PRECEDING JUNE 1 2001. THIS IS ONE
OF MANY AREAS WHERE THE KEAN COMMISSION NOT ONLY FAILED TO
LOOK BUT ACTUALLY ALTERED EVIDENCE IN THE PREPARATION OF ITS
FINAL REPORT.
30
THERE WERE AS MANY AS 22 POSSIBLE HIJACKINGS TAKING PLACE.
OTHER EXERCISES, SPECIFICALLY NORTHERN VIGILANCE HAD PULLED
SIGNIFICANT FIGHTER RESOURCES AWAY FROM THE NORTHEAST U.S.
– JUST BEFORE 9/11 – INTO NORTHERN CANADA AND ALASKA. IN
ADDITION, A CLOSE READING OF KEY NEWS STORIES PUBLISHED IN THE
SPRING OF 2004 REVEALED FOR THE FIRST TIME THAT SOME OF THESE
DRILLS WERE “LIVE-FLY” EXERCISES WHERE ACTUAL AIRCRAFT, LIKELY
FLOWN BY REMOTE CONTROL – WERE SIMULATING THE BEHAVIOR OF
HIJACKED AIRLINERS IN REAL LIFE. ALL OF THIS AS THE REAL ATTACKS
BEGAN. THE FACT THAT THESE EXERCISES HAD NEVER BEEN
SYSTEMATICALLY AND THOROUGHLY EXPLORED IN THE MAINSTREAM
PRESS, OR PUBLICLY BY CONGRESS, OR AT LEAST PUBLICLY IN ANY
DETAIL BY THE SO-CALLED INDEPENDENT 9/11 COMMISSION MADE ME
THINK THAT THEY MIGHT BE THE HOLY GRAIL OF 9/11.
31
ON THE OTHER EXERCISES, EBERHART’S ONLY RESPONSE WAS, “NO
COMMENT.”
THERE ARE MANY, MANY AREAS WHERE THE OFFICIAL ACCOUNT AND
THE FINDINGS OF THE KEAN COMMISSION ARE CONTRADICTED BY
HARD EVIDENCE, OFFICIAL RECORDS, MAINSTREAM NEWS
INVESTIGATIONS AND EVEN SWORN TESTIMONY. BOTH THE LOS
ANGELES TIMES AND THE NEW YORK TIMES HAVE NOTED SOME OF THE
LESSER, BUT NO LESS GLARING, INCONSISTENCIES. IN MY BOOK I WILL
PROVIDE YOU WITH MANY MORE.
32
NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR CONDOLEEZZA RICE WERE REPORTEDLY
“RUSHED” AFTER FLIGHT 175 STRUCK THE WTC’S SOUTH TOWER. I WILL
DEMONSTRATE THAT THE SECRET SERVICE POSSESSED RADAR
SCREENS WHICH GAVE THEM, AND THE VICE PRESIDENT, WHOSE SIDE
THE NEVER LEFT, WITH REAL-TIME INFORMATION AS GOOD AS OR
BETTER THAN THAT AVAILABLE TO THE PENTAGON;
33
WARNING HIM TO GET OUT. THAT WAS APPARENTLY AN ACT OF
DESPERATION BECAUSE NO OTHER PART OF THE SYSTEM WAS TAKING
ACTION.
ISRAEL
I MUST NOW DIGRESS TO SAY A FEW WORDS ABOUT ISRAEL.
34
TO SAY THAT ISRAEL PLAYED A CRIMINAL ROLE IN THE ATTACKS IS NOT
THE SAME THING AS SAYING THAT ISRAEL PERPETRATED THE
ATTACKS. A KEY QUESTION ASKED BY ANY HOMICIDE INVESTIGATOR
IS CUI BONO? WHO BENEFITS. AND ON THIS ACCOUNT WE CAN FIND
ONLY THREE COUNTRIES, THE US, BRITAIN AND ISRAEL THAT HAVE
NEVER WAVERED IN THEIR SUPPORT OF EVERYTHING THAT HAS
HAPPENED SINCE 9/11.
35
LESSER SUPPLIERS OF OIL IN A WORLD WHERE – AS WE TOO WELL
KNOW – THE REMOVAL OF JUST A MILLION BARRELS A DAY FROM
GLOBAL SUPPLY CAN WREAK ECONOMIC HAVOC. AFRICA’S PRICELESS
ENERGY TAKES ONLY ABOUT TWO WEEKS TO REACH AN AMERICAN
GAS TANK AS OPPOSED TO THE SIX WEEK JOURNEY REQUIRED FOR OIL
FROM THE MIDDLE EAST.
I LOOK IN THE BACK OF THE ROOM AND I SEE MY DEAR FRIEND, AGENT
AND PUBLICIST KEN LEVINE. LAST SPRING I WAS PRIVILEGED TO
PARTICIPATE IN A SEDER AT THE HOME OF HIS INCREDIBLE 92 YEAR-
OLD MOTHER.
36
I STOP AND GIVE THANKS FOR JAMEY HECHT, PH.D., A POET, ENGLISH
LITERATURE PROFESSOR, GREAT FRIEND AND AMERICAN JEW WHO
EDITED “CROSSING THE RUBICON.”
I WILL SAY ONE MORE THING BEFORE LEAVING THE SUBJECT OF 9/11
TONIGHT. I LIKE MANY AMERICANS AND MANY PEOPLE AROUND THE
WORLD HAVE SERIOUS LINGERING QUESTIONS ABOUT THE COLLAPSE
OF THE TWIN TOWERS, WHAT IT WAS THAT ACTUALLY STRUCK THE
PENTAGON AND WHAT – IN THE NAME OF GOD – IT WAS THAT CAUSED
THE COLLAPSE OF WTC 7, A BUILDING THAT HAD NOT EVEN BEEN
STRUCK DURING THE ATTACKS.
37
THAT GEORGE BUSH, DICK CHENEY, DONALD RUMSFELD, CONDI RICE,
GENERAL RALPH EBERHART, GENERAL RICHARD MYERS, FBI DIRECTOR
ROBERT MUELLER, JOHN ASHCROFT AND GEORGE TENET LIED TO THE
AMERICAN PEOPLE.
PEAK OIL
DICK CHENEY KNEW ABOUT IT. I WILL SHOW YOU THAT IN MY BOOK.
HIS NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY DEVELOPMENT GROUP – YOU KNOW,
THE ONE THAT REFUSED TO RELEASE ITS RECORDS SPARKING A
CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS AND A SUPREME COURT RULING, KNEW
ABOUT IT. I WILL SHOW YOU THAT IN MY BOOK TOO.
OIL AND NATURAL GAS ARE INDISPENSABLE TO OUR WAY OF LIFE. THE
WORLD CONSUMES TEN CALORIES OF HYDROCARBON ENERGY FOR
EVERY CALORIE OF FOOD THAT IS EATEN. ALL COMMERCIAL
FERTILIZERS ARE MADE FROM NATURAL GAS. ALL PESTICIDES ARE
MADE FROM PETROLEUM. ALL IRRIGATION, PLOWING, HARVESTING
38
AND TRANSPORT IS ACCOMPLISHED BY EITHER OIL POWERED
MACHINERY OR OIL OR NATURAL GAS GENERATED ELECTRICITY.
39
MOLD PUBLIC AND BUSINESS PERCEPTION – HAVE BEEN
ACKNOWLEDGING PEAK OIL’S REALITY, SOMETIMES RELUCTANTLY,
SOMETIMES LESS THAN DIRECTLY, BUT ALSO SOMETIMES VERY
BOLDLY. CNN, THE BBC, THE NEW YORK TIMES, THE ECONOMIST;
DOZENS OF MEDIA GIANTS HAD BEGUN TO RESPOND, LIKE A GIANT
SHIP TURNING SLOWLY IN THE WATER. THE SHIP HAS CLEARLY
CHANGED COURSE, BUT WAS IT ENOUGH? WAS IT IN TIME? I HAVE
SAVED CLOSE TO 200 OF THESE STORIES.
40
DISCOVERIES OF LARGE OIL DEPOSITS HAVE BEEN IN STEEP DECLINE
SINCE 1962. DEMAND, ON THE OTHER HAND, HAS BEEN SOARING.
41
STREAM, WITH 18 NEW PROJECTS EXPECTED TO BE BROUGHT ON
STREAM IN THAT YEAR. IN 2006, THE PACE DROPS BACK TO 11 NEW
PROJECTS. BUT IN 2007 THERE ARE ONLY 3 NEW PROJECTS
SCHEDULED TO BEGIN PRODUCTION, FOLLOWED BY 3 MORE IN 2008.
THERE ARE NO NEW PROJECTS ON TRACK FOR 2009 OR 2010. AND ANY
NEW MEGA PROJECT SANCTIONED NOW COULD NOT POSSIBLY COME
ON STREAM ANY SOONER THAN 2008.
42
YEAR BEFORE THE NEW YORK TIMES DID, THAT SAUDI ARABIA MAY
HAVE ACTUALLY PEAKED. NEW STUDIES ARE REPORTING THAT SAUDI
WELLS IN THE MOTHER OF ALL OIL FIELDS GHAWAR ARE SHOWING 55%
WATER CUT. THAT MEANS THAT 55% OF WHAT IS PUMPED OUT EVERY
DAY IS THE SAME SEAWATER THAT WAS PUMPED IN TO PUSH THE OIL
UP. EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN THAT WHEN THE WATER CUT GETS TO
BETWEEN 70 AND 80% THE FIELD COLLAPSES.
43
DRAWN FROM THE MANY NEW PROJECTS EXPECTED TO COME ON
STREAM OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS. THIS LEAVES A SURPLUS OF 4MN
B/D IN SPARE CAPACITY. YET GLOBAL DEMAND IS GROWING BY OVER 1
MBPD EACH YEAR. SO 3 YEARS OF DEMAND GROWTH WILL REDUCE
OUR SPARE CAPACITY TO 1MN B/D BY THE START OF 2007. AS VERY
LITTLE NEW CAPACITY IS SET TO COME ON STREAM IN 2007, THAT
REMAINING 1 MBPD SPARE CAPACITY WILL LIKELY DISAPPEAR BEFORE
2008.
44
BUT THERE IS ANOTHER FACTOR TO THIS OIL CALCULUS. SO MANY
COMPLAINTS ARE BEING VOICED THAT A MAJOR PART OF THE
PROBLEM WITH CURRENT OIL PRICES HAS TO DO WITH A LACK OF
REFINERIES. PEOPLE POINT OUT THAT THERE ARE 18 DIFFERENT
GRADES OF GASOLINE IN THIS COUNTRY MATCHING VARIOUS STATE
LAWS. WHY, THEY DEMAND, ARE NO MORE REFINERIES BEING BUILT.
45
TO QUOTE FORMER BRITISH ENVIRONMENTAL MINISTER MICHAEL
MEACHER, WE ARE FACING, "THE SHARPEST AND PERHAPS THE MOST
VIOLENT DISLOCATION (OF SOCIETY) IN RECENT HISTORY."
THERE ARE MANY OUT THERE WHO JUST REFUSE TO BELIEVE THAT OIL
AND NATURAL GAS ARE RUNNING OUT. SOME INSIST THAT OIL IS
CREATED AUTOMATICALLY AND INFINITELY BY THE EARTH’S CORE,
DISPUTING ALL KNOWN SCIENCE SHOWING OTHERWISE. THERE ARE
THOSE WHO INSIST THAT ALTERNATIVE ENERGIES CAN BE SNAPPED
INTO PLACE IMMEDIATELY TO ALLOW FOR INFINITE ECONOMIC AND
POPULATION GROWTH.
ASIDE FROM LOOKING AT THE EVENTS SINCE 9/11 AND SEEING THAT
THEY MATCH A WORLD OF DIMINISHING ENERGY LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT
SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AROUND THE WORLD AND SEE WHAT
THEY TELL US.
46
NATURAL GAS EXPORTS TO CHILE BY 15%, WHICH IS THREATENING
CHILEAN POWER GENERATION. ARGENTINA IS NOW MOVING INTO THE
WORLD OIL MARKET IN SEARCH OF OIL FOR POWER GENERATION AND
TRANSPORTATION AS ITS OWN DOMESTIC SUPPLIES HAVE DWINDLED.
47
INDIA, WHOSE OIL IMPORTS JUMPED 23% IN ONE MONTH, HAS MOVED
TO CREATE A STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE.
48
ARE BUYING ALL THEY CAN EVEN AT WHAT SOME ANALYSTS CALL
“INFLATED” PRICES.
AND HERE IN THE UNITED STATES, RISING OIL PRICES HAVE FORCED
MAJOR AIRLINES LIKE UNITED TO CONSIDER RAIDING CORPORATE
49
PENSION FUNDS IN ORDER TO OFFSET RISING OIL COSTS AS AN
ALTERNATIVE TO BANKRUPTCY.
THE FIRST IS FROM SIR CHARLES GALTON DARWIN WHO IN 1952, JUST
ONE YEAR AFTER I WAS BORN, WROTE:
50
“THE FIFTH REVOLUTION WILL COME WHEN WE HAVE SPENT
THE STORES OF COAL AND OIL THAT HAVE BEEN
ACCUMULATING IN THE EARTH DURING HUNDREDS OF
MILLIONS OF YEARS. . . . IT IS TO BE HOPED THAT BEFORE
THEN OTHER SOURCES OF ENERGY WILL HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPED . . . BUT WITHOUT CONSIDERING THE DETAIL
[HERE] IT IS OBVIOUS THAT THERE WILL BE A VERY GREAT
DIFFERENCE IN WAYS OF LIFE. . . . WHETHER A CONVENIENT
SUBSTITUTE FOR THE PRESENT FUELS IS FOUND OR NOT,
THERE CAN BE NO DOUBT THAT THERE WILL HAVE TO BE A
GREAT CHANGE IN WAYS OF LIFE. THIS CHANGE MAY JUSTLY
BE CALLED A REVOLUTION, BUT IT DIFFERS FROM ALL THE
PRECEDING ONES IN THAT THERE IS NO LIKELIHOOD OF ITS
LEADING TO INCREASES OF POPULATION, BUT EVEN PERHAPS
TO THE REVERSE.”
IN “CROSSING THE RUBICON” I WILL EXPLAIN JUST HOW AND WHY THE
WORLD’S CURRENT ECONOMIC SYSTEM IS HASTENING AND
WORSENING A CALAMITY OF UNIMAGINED PROPORTIONS. THIS ALL
BEGAN FOR ME SOME 27 YEARS AGO WHEN, AS A YOUNG POLICEMAN, I
DISCOVERED THAT THE CIA WAS DEEPLY INVOLVED IN THE DRUG
TRADE. THE PURPOSE OF THAT INVOLVEMENT LED ME TO DISCOVER,
AND PROVE USING US SENATE HEARING RECORDS AND DOCUMENTS
FROM THE CIA ITSELF THAT AN ESSENTIAL INGREDIENT – PERHAPS THE
ESSENTIAL INGREDIENT – IN US ECONOMIC SUPREMACY WAS THE
51
MAINTENANCE OF A FLOW OF AS MUCH AS $600 BILLION A YEAR IN
DRUG PROFITS THROUGH US FINANCIAL MARKETS AND INSTITUTIONS.
52
LOW. IT WILL PRICE AMERICAN GOODS OUT OF WORLD
MARKETS AND LEAD TO UNSUSTAINABLE DEPENDENCE ON
FOREIGN CAPITAL. IT WILL BE A POLICY, IN SHORT, OF
BEGGAR-ALL-OF-OUR-NEIGHBORS WHILE WE LIVE ALONE, IN
INCREASING IDLENESS AND INSIDE THE DOLLAR BUBBLE.
53
GIVEN OUR NEW COUNTRY. HE FAMOUSLY REPLIED, "A
REPUBLIC, IF YOU CAN KEEP IT."
THANK YOU,
54