Daily Technical Report: Sensex (17214) / NIFTY (5227)

Daily Technical Report
July 16, 2012
Sensex (17214) / NIFTY (5227)

On Friday, our benchmark indices opened on a strong note and rallied higher in the morning trade but lost momentum during the second half to close near days low. On the sectoral front, Consumer Durables, Realty and Metal counters were among the major losers; whereas FMCG and Oil & Gas sector ended with nominal gain. The advance to decline ratio was marginally in favor of declining counters (A=1304 D=1474) (Source www.bseindia.com). Formation The weekly 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the fall from 18524 /5630 (February 22, 2012) 15749 / 4770 (June 4, 2012) is seen at 17464 / 5302. On the weekly chart, we are witnessing a Downward Sloping Trend Line resistance near 17687 / 5386 formed by joining the highs of 21109 / 6339 (November 5, 2010) 18524 / 5630 (February 24, 2012). A horizontal consolidation band is observed in the range of 17034 / 5159 and 17635 / 5350. The 20 day EMA is placed at 17200 / 5218 level.
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart
Source: Falcon
Actionable points:
View Resistance Levels
Neutral 5262 - 5300 5217 5189 - 5159
Trading strategy: On the back of few domestic events and global uncertainties during the week, we witnessed sideways consolidation in our markets. At this juncture, we are observing that our markets have taken support precisely at 20-day EMA during the last two trading sessions of the week. A sustainable move below this level may drag the Indices lower towards the gap area (17135 - 17034 / 5189 5159 levels) formed on 29thJune 2012. A fall towards the mentioned gap area would mean that the index is likely to consolidate further within the range of 17034 / 5159 and 17635 / 5350. This could also mean a prolonged phase of lackluster activity within the mentioned range. One may note that the markets consolidated for the entire month of April within the very same range before a decisive move could be seen.
Support Levels
Considering the chart structure of the major stocks within the Index, and the fact that the weekly stochastic oscillator is in the overbought zone, we are of the opinion that a similar consolidation phase is likely over the next few days. The current ongoing uptrend is likely to resume once the indices close above 17635 / 5350 level. In this scenario, we expect indices to march towards the levels of 17687 18041 / 5386 5500. As mentioned in our previous reports, we advise Positional traders to book partial profits on a rise towards 5350 and hold balance positions in Nifty by keeping a trailing stop loss at 5090 (Nifty spot).
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July 16, 2012
Bank Nifty Outlook - (10594)

On Friday, Bank Nifty opened on a flat note and traded in a narrow range during first half of the session. However, during the second half selling pressure in select banking heavyweights led the index to close near the lowest point of the day. The momentum oscillators on the daily chart continue with their sell signal. Moreover, we are witnessing a Bearish Harami candlestick pattern on the weekly chart near 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the fall from February 24, 2012 - May 18, 2012. The mentioned pattern requires confirmation in the form of daily closing below the 10524 mark. Thus going forward a fall below 10524 level is likely to attract further selling pressure and the Index may drift lower to test 10440 10338 levels. On the upside 10715 10740 levels may act as resistance levels in coming trading session. Broadly we expect the index to trade in the range of 10782 10303 for the coming week. Actionable points:
View Expected Targets Resistance Levels Bearish Below 10524 10440 - 10365 10670 - 10700
Exhibit 2: Bank Nifty Weekly Chart
Source: Falcon

July 16, 2012 Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty 50 Stocks
SCRIPS SENSEX NIFTY BANKNIFTY ACC AMBUJACEM ASIANPAINT AXISBANK BAJAJ-AUTO BANKBARODA BHARTIARTL BHEL BPCL CAIRN CIPLA COALINDIA DLF DRREDDY GAIL GRASIM HCLTECH HDFC HDFCBANK HEROMOTOCO HINDALCO HINDUNILVR ICICIBANK IDFC INFY ITC JINDALSTEL JPASSOCIAT KOTAKBANK LT M&M MARUTI NTPC ONGC PNB POWERGRID RANBAXY RELIANCE RELINFRA SAIL SBIN SESAGOA SIEMENS STER SUNPHARMA TATAMOTORS TATAPOWER TATASTEEL TCS WIPRO S2 17,086 5,187 10,480 1,252 166 3,661 1,011 1,476 707 305 228 380 313 323 351 204 1,624 358 2,608 479 672 578 2,056 117 438 915 135 2,195 249 412 76 594 1,388 712 1,157 157 279 814 111 486 709 535 92 2,132 186 683 101 610 232 96 418 1,218 352 S1 17,150 5,207 10,537 1,258 167 3,685 1,023 1,488 713 306 230 383 314 326 352 206 1,635 361 2,623 481 674 583 2,071 119 439 921 136 2,212 251 422 77 599 1,397 716 1,170 159 282 829 112 488 714 541 92 2,155 188 691 102 613 234 97 422 1,234 356 PIVOT 17,246 5,237 10,626 1,266 169 3,718 1,042 1,496 723 308 231 388 316 329 355 209 1,650 364 2,647 485 677 587 2,081 122 442 929 138 2,236 253 436 78 604 1,410 720 1,189 160 284 844 112 491 720 550 93 2,194 192 702 104 617 236 99 427 1,259 360 R1 17,310 5,257 10,683 1,272 170 3,742 1,054 1,507 728 310 233 392 317 332 356 211 1,661 367 2,662 488 679 591 2,096 123 444 934 139 2,253 255 445 79 609 1,418 724 1,203 161 287 859 113 493 725 556 93 2,218 194 709 105 621 238 101 431 1,275 363 R2 17,407 5,287 10,773 1,279 172 3,775 1,074 1,515 738 311 235 397 319 335 359 215 1,676 370 2,685 492 682 596 2,106 126 447 942 140 2,276 257 460 80 614 1,431 729 1,221 162 289 874 114 496 732 565 94 2,257 198 720 107 625 240 103 436 1,300 368

July 16, 2012
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: research@angelbroking.com Website: www.angelbroking.com
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This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Research Team
Shardul Kulkarni Sameet Chavan Sacchitanand Uttekar Mehul Kothari Ankur Lakhotia Head Technicals Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst
For any Queries, Suggestions and Feedback kindly mail to sameet.chavan@angelbroking.com
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Daily Technical Report

July 16, 2012

Sensex (17214) / NIFTY (5227)

Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart

View Resistance Levels

Neutral 5262 - 5300 5217 5189 - 5159