Opening Bell: Key Points Index Movement (Past 5 Days)
Opening Bell: Key Points Index Movement (Past 5 Days)
Opening Bell: Key Points Index Movement (Past 5 Days)
August 10, 2012 Key Points Market outlook Open flat to negative on negative Asian cues
18000 17500 17000
Negative Weak Chinese industrial output data Market Outlook The Indian markets are expected to open flat to negative on negative Asian cues. The domestic markets edged lower on Thursday after data showed that Indias industrial output shrank by 1.8% in June, marking the third decline in four months, due to a sharp contraction in manufacturing production and lower growth in the agricultural sector. Meanwhile, the government said it would reassess the fiscal deficit target of 5.1% of GDP for the current fiscal year after a midyear review of the economy. The Sensex fell by 39.7 points or 0.2% to 17560.9 while the Nifty declined to 5323.0, down 15.1 points or 0.3%. The Sensex has supports at 17500 and 17420 and resistances at 17630 and 17740. The Nifty spot has supports at 5290 and 5260 and resistances at 5350 and 5380
16500 16000
BSE (RHS)
NSE (LHS)
Institutional Activity
09-Aug-2012 Net flows (| cr) FIIs 337.1 DIIs -754.4
Advances/Declines
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The US markets closed nearly flat on Thursday for a second consecutive day. The choppy trading on Wall Street came as traders expressed continued uncertainty about the near-term outlook for the markets following recent strength. At the same time, some upbeat economic data helped to keep traders from cashing in on recent gains, with a report showing an unexpected drop in weekly jobless claims. A separate report showed that the US trade deficit narrowed to $42.9 billion in June from $48.0 billion in May. While the Dow edged down 10.5 points or 0.1% to 13,165.2, the Nasdaq rose 7.4 points or 0.3% to 3,018.6 and the S&P 500 crept up 0.6 points to 1,402.8
% 55 63.2 61.0
ADRs ($)
Price HDFC Bank Dr Reddys Labs Tata Motors ICICI Bank Infosys Wipro MTNL
.
Markets
Change 0.0 -0.2 -0.8 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 change (%) 0.1 -0.7 -3.6 -0.4 0.3 0.2 2.5 35.3 29.9 21.3 35.0 41.6 8.1 1.2
Sensex Nifty Close 17560.9 5322.95 Previous 17600.6 5338.0 Change -39.7 -15.1 Chg(%) -0.2 -0.3 MTD(%) 0.3 0.5 YTD(%) 13.2 14.7 PE (1yr fwd) 14.2 13.7
3.3 3.1
8.8
18.1 6.2
Technical Outlook August 10, 2012 We said, "Positive options remain stalled until the Index closes above 17664." The Index opened higher but failed to move above the previous candle. Up 103 points initially, it shaved off all gains and ended 40 points or 0.2% lower. While most sectors finished flat to negative, FMCG gained 1.4% and Oil & Gas lost 1%. The A/D ratio remained negative 1:2. The action formed a Bear candle, indicating further reaction away from the upper end of the channel. The bias would be negative if it weakens further below the candle, which could test the lower end of the channel. However, if the trend is strong, the reaction should not last for more than two or three day. Hence, watch if it holds the lower levels of 17450-500.
Pivot Points
Index/Stocks SENSEX NIFTY ACC ANDHRA BANK ARVIND NSE BAJAJ-AUTO BALAJI TELE BOB BOI BEL BPCL BHEL Canara Bank Century CIPLA DR.REDDY'S LAB. GAIL GEOMETRIC Close 17560.87 5322.95 1338.85 95.65 69.10 1691.15 41.60 645.45 279.95 1261.30 340.30 231.30 352.00 317.65 351.95 1649.35 369.05 104.75 S1 17484.25 5300.75 1331.20 93.55 67.90 1692.35 40.95 638.85 276.65 1251.15 334.65 227.50 346.75 315.70 351.85 1640.25 369.10 103.90 S2 17448.25 5289.10 1325.75 93.10 67.40 1685.00 40.25 637.10 274.70 1237.65 331.40 226.35 345.00 311.85 350.75 1633.90 367.30 101.80 R1 17577.25 5328.70 1340.05 96.35 69.35 1707.05 41.90 648.20 280.65 1263.40 342.45 231.40 353.60 323.35 354.10 1651.70 372.70 108.05 R2 17623.75 5342.70 1344.50 97.75 70.10 1714.90 42.35 652.85 282.60 1269.55 346.40 233.35 357.05 324.95 355.35 1657.45 376.95 109.80 Trend -ve -ve -ve -ve -ve +ve -ve -ve -ve -ve -ve -ve -ve +ve +ve -ve +ve +ve
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Result Update
August 9, 2012
Rating matrix
Rating Target Target Period Potential Upside : : : : Strong Buy | 385 12 months 40%
Key Financials
| Crore Net Sales EBITDA Net Profit EPS (|) FY11 59,467 19,960.8 6,046.8 15.9 FY12 71,450.8 23,657.3 4,259.4 11.2 FY13E 80,465.1 24,838.0 3,888.2 10.2 FY14E 88,727.4 28,960.1 6,444.5 17.0
EPS (FY13E)......................................................................... Changed from | 14.8 to | 10.2 EPS (FY14E)......................................................................... Changed from | 21.4 to | 17.0 RATING...............................................................................................................Unchanged
Valuation summary
P/E Target P/E EV / EBITDA P/BV RoNW (%) RoCE (%) FY11 17.2 24.2 8.2 2.1 12.4 8.6 FY12 24.5 34.4 7.2 2.1 8.4 8.4 FY13E 26.8 37.6 6.7 1.9 7.2 7.8 FY14E 16.2 22.7 5.4 1.7 10.7 10.5
Stock data
Market Capitalization (| Crore) Total Debt (FY12) (| Crore) Cash and Investments (FY12) (| Crore) EV (| Crore) 52 week H/L Equity capital Face value MF Holding (%) FII Holding (%) 104,156.4 69,023.2 3,843.2 169,336.4 409 / 274 | 1898.2 Crore |5 8.2 16.9
Price movement
6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Nifty (L.H.S) Price (R.H.S) 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Aug-12
Analysts name
Karan Mittal karan.mittal@icicisecurities.com Anil Shenoy anil.shenoy@icicisecurities.com
Result Update
August 9, 2012
Rating matrix
Rating Target Target Period Potential Upside : : : : Buy | 824 12 months 14 %
Key Financials
| Crore FY11 Net Sales 23,042 EBITDA 3,454.3 Net Profit 2,662.1 DEPS (|)* 40.6 DEPS ~ Diluted EPS FY12 31,392.0 3,770.7 2,878.9 43.9
EPS (FY13E)......................................................................... Changed from | 45.6 to | 48.7 EPS (FY14E)......................................................................... Changed from | 52.0 to | 57.3 RATING.....................................................................................Changed from HOLD to BUY
Valuation summary
P/E Target P/E EV / EBITDA P/BV RoNW RoCE FY11 14.4 18.2 11.5 3.7 25.8 23.9 FY12 13.3 16.8 10.6 3.1 23.7 20.3 FY13E 12.1 15.2 7.9 2.7 22.0 22.0 FY14E 10.2 12.9 6.4 2.2 21.6 22.5
Stock data
Market Capitalization (| crore) Total Debt (FY12) (| crore) Cash (FY12) (| crore) EV (| crore) 52 week H/L Equity capital Face value MF Holding (%) FII Holding (%) 38,483.9 3,580.8 1,188.5 40,876.2 877 / 621 294.7 |5 20.0 27.6
Price movement
6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 Aug-11 Nov-11
Price (R.H.S)
950 850 750 650 550 450 350 250 150 50 Feb-12 May-12
Nifty (L.H.S)
Aug-12
Analysts name
Nishant Vass nishant.vass@icicsecurtities.com Venil Shah venil.shah@icicisecurities.com
EPS (|) 12.3 10.7 10.3 Source: Company press release, ICICIdirect.com Research
Derivative Statistics
India VIX Open 16.4 High 16.8 Low 16.0 Current 16.3 Previous 16.4 Change (%) -0.2
VIX Close
Company BSE Mahindra Forgings NSE Kingfisher Airlines Source: NSE & BSE,
Result preview
Company Apollo Hospital BPCL Sun Pharma Lovable Lingerie Hathway Cable SCI Bharat Forge Revenue Q1FY13E 770.0 62,925.3 2,301.5 54.7 142.3 980.5 958.3 Change(%) YoY 20.1 36.4 38.6 16.5 16.1 0.8 11.7 QoQ 3.4 -2.7 -1.5 186.5 5.0 -5.6 -1.9 EBITDA Q1FY13E 129.7 -1,101.7 917.6 10.4 25.8 49.0 240.9 Change(%) YoY 22.5 NA 67.7 17.2 34.8 -58.5 15.6 QoQ 8.1 -4.7 398.9 10.8 LP -4.0 PAT Q1FY13E 64.9 694.9 8.2 -7.2 -185.0 109.7 Change(%) YoY 26.4 NA 38.7 17.4 NA NA 12.6 QoQ 9.4 PL -15.3 26.1 NA NA 99.0
PL -1,545.8
Company SBI
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Pre. 1m 1.24 1.57 78.51 1.06 0.99 0.97 55.42 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.13
Change 3m 6m 0.01 -0.02 -0.07 0.01 -0.06 0.07 0.01 0.80 0.02 0.02 0.05 5.78 -1.15 -0.82 -0.19 -0.03 -0.04
The rupee on Thursday pared some gains on weak June IIP data but managed to end 15 paisa higher at 55.27 against the dollar on sustained capital inflows
Source: Reuters
11
Inflation for June 2012 came in at 7.25% surprising positively as the market had estimated it at 7.6%. Primary articles inflation continues to be in double digits while fuel came in lower at 10.74% against 11.53% (May 2012). Manufactured goods stayed flat at 5%
9 7.25 7
5 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Jun-11 Jun-12 Feb-12 Apr-11 Apr-12 Jun-12 May-12 Jul-12
Source: Reuters
1 Year
Source: Reuters
2 Year
5 Year
10 Year
Page 4
100 90 80 70 60
Aug-11 Nov-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Jun-12 7534 8000 Jun-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Sep-11 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jul-12
93.4
Source: Reuters
Gold ($/Ounce)
2000 1800
Gold rose on Thursday as slowing growth in China's factory output mildly boosted investor hopes of more monetary stimulus from one of the world's top economic engines, which could boost demand for bullion .
1617.1
Source: Reuters
Copper ($/tonne)
9500
Copper was nearly flat on Thursday, finishing with slight gains as investors weighed speculation that China may take steps to support growth against pressure from a sharply higher US dollar
Source: Reuters
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Market Indicators Fund activity (for past five trading sessions in | crore)
1200 600 209 0 -600 -1200 FII 3-Aug-12
Source: BSE
9-Aug
8-Aug
11348 115863
7-Aug
1889 9862 110641 40,000 BSE Cash 60,000 NSE Cash 80,000 100,000 NSE Derivative 120,000 140,000
20,000
Sector Statistics
Sector Capital Goods IT FMCG Metals Oil & Gas PSU Banks Mid Cap BSE100 Healthcare Auto BSE Small Cap Consumer Durables Real Estate Source: Reuters, BSE Close 9884.9 5470.3 5118.0 10444.8 8375.2 7191.6 12076.1 6114.2 5326.4 7315.9 9441.0 6595.9 6392.5 1650.2 Previous 9945.6 5450.0 5099.8 10361.3 7642.0 7133.1 12141.7 6126.3 5329.8 7309.6 9328.7 6620.8 6409.1 1684.0 Change -60.7 20.3 18.2 83.4 733.2 58.6 -65.5 -12.1 -3.3 6.3 112.3 -24.9 -16.6 -33.9 % Change -0.6 0.4 0.4 0.8 9.6 0.8 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 1.2 -0.4 -0.3 -2.0 Volume 4950 836 1523 4055 1615 13527 2040 81625 43476 2171 3292 58364 1393 17805
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News & Views Punj Lloyd has said it has bagged a | 330-crore order from the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas for process facilities & utilities at an upcoming crude oil storage cavern. The project, located near Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd, is scheduled to be completed within a period of 29 months. Infosys has been selected by the Department of Posts for its | 700 crore project to help India Post transform its banking and insurance operations cross 1,50,000 post offices in the country. Under the agreement, Infosys and India Post will embark on a transformational initiative, which encompasses financial services system integration.
Domestic Events Calendar (August 6, 2012 August 10, 2012) Date 9-Aug Event Industrial Production YoY (Jun)
Global Events Calendar (August 6, 2012 August 10, 2012) Date 7-Aug 8-Aug 8-Aug 8-Aug 9-Aug 9-Aug 9-Aug 9-Aug 9-Aug 9-Aug 10-Aug 10-Aug Event Consumer Credit - US MBA Mortgage Applications - US EIA Crude Oil Inventory (Barrels) - US Monthly Budget Statement - US OPEC Oil Market Report - US Trade Balance - US Exports & Imports - US Initial Jobless Claims - US Continuing Claims - US Wholesale Sales (M-o-M) & (Y-O-Y) - US IEA Oil Market Report - US Import Price Index (Y-o-Y) & (M-o-M) - US
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7 August Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals, Allcargo, Sobha developers, NHPC, Balrampur Chini, Bombay Dyeing, Great Offshore, Punj Lloyd, Tata Chemicals
8 August M&M, Bharti Airtel, HEG Ltd, JBF Industries, Maharashtra Seamless, Pantaloon Retail, Oil India, GVK Power, Tata Power, Navneet Publications, Aban Offshore, Indian Hotels, Global offshore
9 August Ranbaxy Laboratories, Apollo Tyres, GMR Infra, Eicher Motors, Motherson Sumi, Tech Mahindra, GSPL, IOC,HPCL, NCC, Elder Pharma, Adani Enterprises, Great Eastern Shipping, Jindal Stainless, Tata Motors
10 August Apollo Hospital, BPCL, SBI, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Lovable Lingerie, Hathway Cable, Bharat Forge, Shipping Corporation of India, Siemens
11 August ONGC, Natco Pharma, Reliance Capital , Reliance Communication, Gitanjali Gems, Godrej Industries, Gujarat NRE Coke, Reliance Media
13 August India Cement, Tata Steel, Entertainment Network, Lanco Infra, Alok Industries, Unity Infra, Orbit Corp
14 August Hindalco, IDFC, Amara Raja batteries, Pipavav Defence & Offshore Engineering Ltd, Mercator Ltd, Simplex Infra, Supreme Infra, Shree Renuka Sugars, Bajaj Hindusthan, Gateway Distriparks, ABG Shipyard, Tulip Telecom
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Pipavav Defence & Offshore Engineering Company Buy GMR Infrastructure Hold Jindal SAW Gateway Distriparks Tulip Telecom Indraprastha Gas Page Industries Jayshree Tea Buy Hold Hold Hold Buy Hold
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Pankaj Pandey
Head Research ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC Andheri (East) Mumbai 400 093 research@icicidirect.com
pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com
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