Madhucon Projects: Performance Highlights
Madhucon Projects: Performance Highlights
Madhucon Projects: Performance Highlights
Madhucon Projects
Performance Highlights
Quarterly highlights - Standalone
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales Operating profit Net profit
Source: Company, Angel Research
BUY
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
4QFY12
432 51 15
`35 `56
12 Months
1QFY13
336 47 7
1QFY12
329 46 8
% chg (yoy)
2.1 1.8 (11.9)
% chg (qoq)
(22.2) (7.6) (53.0)
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Infrastructure 258 0.9 94/33 11,340 1 17,728 5,380 MAPR.BO MDHPJ@IN
For 1QFY2013, Madhucon Projects Ltd (MPL) reported a mixed set of numbers with revenue coming in below our expectations. However, a higher EBITDAM resulted in a better-than-expected earnings performance. MPLs
order book stands tall at ~`7,000cr (3.2x FY2013E revenue), providing good visibility for the next couple of years. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock. Mixed performance: On the top-line front, MPL posted a disappointing
performance with a y-o-y increase of 2.1% to `336cr, way below our expectations of `425cr. As per the management, a ramp up in execution of
Barasat Krishnagar and Ranchi Rargon Jamshedpur projects will drive the companys revenue growth going ahead. The EBITDAM came in at 14.0%, flat
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 57.8 21.7 9.6 11.0
on a y-o-y basis but posted a jump of 220bp on a q-o-q basis against our expectation of 11.9%. Interest cost stood at `24cr a jump of 15.1% on a y-o-y basis but a decline of 11.3% on a sequential basis. On the earnings front, the company posted a decline of 11.9% yoy at `7cr, higher than our expectations of `5cr. This is despite a higher tax rate (39.5%) on the back of higher EBITDAM and lower-than-expected interest cost.
Outlook and valuation Raising capital is the key catalyst: MPL has an equity requirement of ~`570cr for its build-operate-transfer (BOT) road projects. We believe the key triggers to watch out for MPL would be a pick-up in execution in the development business and raising money for the same. Hence, we believe until then the stock would be a sector performer and real value would be created only on unlocking at the subsidiary level. We have valued MPL on a SOTP basis to arrive at a target price of `56 and maintain our Buy rating on the stock.
3m 9.3
1yr 5.3
(23.9) (51.6)
FY2011 1,816 30.8 41 (10.2) 5.6 9.5 6.3 6.9 10.1 0.4 0.5 5.5
FY2012 1,802 (0.7) 37 (11.2) 4.9 11.3 7.1 5.8 9.5 0.4 0.7 6.6
FY2013E 2,206 22.4 34 (5.9) 4.6 10.7 7.5 5.2 8.6 0.4 0.7 6.5
FY2014E 2,502 13.4 35 0.8 4.7 10.7 7.5 5.0 8.3 0.4 0.7 6.3
Nitin Arora
022-39357800 Ext: 6842 nitin.arora@angelbroking.com
% Chg (yoy) 2.1 2.2 1.8 (10)bp 15.1 6.3 134.0 (16.7) (23.1) (11.9) (30)bp (11.9)
% Chg (qoq) (22.2) (24.2) (7.6) 220bp (11.3) (8.4) (90.8) (52.0) (50.4) (53.0) (140)bp (53.0)
% Chg 5.7 5.2 10.3 40bp 76.6 7.8 225.7 (24.6) (18.1) (28.4) (100)bp (28.4)
Estimates 425 51 29 5
Actual 336 47 24 7
352
593
329
416
625
432
3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 Sales (` cr, LHS)
Source: Company, Angel Research
336
100
(20.0) (40.0)
3.5
10.0 0.0
3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 EBITDA (` cr, LHS) EBITDAM (%, RHS)
280
Roads
Power
Irrigation
Real Estate
Methodology P/E NPV NPV NPV NPV Investment Investment 9acres at Kukatpally
Remarks 3x FY2014E Earnings CoE -14%, Traffic and Toll increase 4% and 5% respectively CoE -14%, Traffic and Toll increase 3% and 3% respectively CoE -14%, Traffic and Toll increase 4% and 5% respectively CoE -14%, Traffic and Toll increase 3% and 4% respectively 0.5x of investments 0.5x of investments 0.5x of investments
` cr 103.9 362.9 127.3 38.1 (22.0) 64.7 132.3 22.5 14.5 481.3
`/share 14.0 40.1 17.2 5.1 (3.0) 8.7 8.9 3.0 2.0 56.1
% to TP 25.0 71.5 30.7 9.2 (5.3) 15.6 15.9 5.4 3.5 100.0
Investment arguments
Captive order inflows drive the companys order book growth: As of 1QFY2013, MPL has an order book of ~`7,000cr, spread across the power, highway and irrigation segments. In recent times, the companys order book witnessed traction in the road segment via winning of BOT projects and captive power projects. Value unlocking at the subsidiary level A key to enhance value: We believe MPL has a decent portfolio of road BOT assets (four operational + five under construction/development), power projects and coal mining projects, which have latent potential. However, we believe faster execution and value unlocking at the subsidiary level would act as a trigger for the companys performance. We expect MPL to access the capital markets in FY2014, when it would have reached more milestones and enhanced its asset visibility. Therefore, in the short to medium term, the stock would continue to be a sector performer.
Key concerns
Dependability on capital markets for equity: MPL has plans to raise money from markets to fund its asset-expansion spree. In case MPL is unsuccessful in doing so, it may face delays, which will negatively impact the IRRs of the companys projects. Rising commodity prices: MPL has high proportion of captive road BOT projects, which are fixed-price contracts. In such contracts, some price escalations can be factored in; however, the company may face risk of margin erosion if commodity prices increase beyond estimates. Awarding from NHAI: Any slowdown in awarding activity by NHAI would hit order inflow for road-focused players such as MPL.
Company background
Madhucon Projects Ltd (MPL) is a Hyderabad-based construction company promoted by N. Seethaiah and N. Krishnaiah. The company operates in the road (61% of order book), irrigation (21%), power (4%), mining (6%) and real estate (8%) segments. MPL has a portfolio of nine road BOT projects (four operational and five under construction/development), three power projects (300MWx2 and a recent international foray), a coal mine in Indonesia, and land bank in Hyderabad.
12,853 15,259 17,502 53,171 60,474 69,091 1,802 5,250 3,573 2,676 6,019 2,206 5,804 3,609 2,506 6,732 2,502 6,513 3,836 3,147 7,837
1,452 1,553
10
Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value DuPont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROACE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROAE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Loans and Advances (days) Payables (days) W.cap cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage 0.4 1.9 3.0 0.8 3.4 3.5 1.1 4.0 2.0 1.7 5.3 1.4 1.9 5.4 1.2 2.0 5.4 1.2 2.4 29 32 159 180 31 2.9 17 28 130 133 34 3.6 25 51 127 153 44 3.5 60 79 166 202 95 3.9 63 76 165 186 110 4.0 45 81 179 198 100 10.3 11.7 9.1 9.0 9.7 8.2 10.1 10.6 6.9 9.5 10.1 5.8 8.6 9.3 5.2 8.3 9.2 5.0 7.9 0.6 1.5 7.5 6.6 0.3 7.8 6.4 0.7 1.5 6.4 4.0 0.6 7.9 6.9 0.7 1.5 7.1 6.6 1.0 7.6 8.5 0.6 1.2 6.0 6.7 1.4 5.2 7.8 0.7 1.2 6.2 6.8 1.8 5.0 7.5 0.7 1.2 6.1 6.6 2.0 5.0 6.4 6.3 12.2 0.8 72.4 6.2 6.2 12.5 0.4 78.1 6.4 5.6 12.0 0.2 82.2 4.9 4.9 11.8 0.5 86.6 4.6 4.6 13.3 0.5 90.7 4.7 4.7 15.5 0.5 94.8 5.5 2.9 0.5 2.3 0.5 4.0 0.6 5.7 2.8 0.4 1.1 0.5 5.3 0.6 6.3 2.9 0.4 0.7 0.5 5.5 0.7 7.1 3.0 0.4 1.4 0.7 6.6 0.7 7.5 2.6 0.4 1.4 0.7 6.5 0.7 7.5 2.3 0.4 1.4 0.7 6.3 0.7 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E FY2014E
11
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Madhucon Projects No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns):
12