Sterlite Industries: Performance Highlights
Sterlite Industries: Performance Highlights
Sterlite Industries: Performance Highlights
Sterlite Industries
Performance Highlights
ACCUMULATE
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
2QFY12 % chg (yoy) 10,134 2,407 23.8 1,028 8.8 5.0 (84)bp 40.1 1QFY13 % chg (qoq) 10,591 2,308 21.8 1,419 4.1 9.5 112bp 1.5
`101 `110
12 months
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net Debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others Abs. (%) Sensex STLT 3m 11.9 3.2 1yr 7.7 (17.4) 53.3 9.2 13.5 24.0 3yr 13.9 (48.2) Base Metals 33,892 5,933 1.4 138/86 725,503 1 18,625 5,664 STRL.BO STLT@IN
Sterlite Industries (Sterlite)s 2QFY2013 net profit was higher-than expected mainly due to a better-than-expected performance from its aluminium segment. However, we recommend an Accumulate rating on the stock. Top-line growth driven by Aluminium and Power segments: For 2QFY2013, net sales increased 8.8% yoy to `11,029cr. The growth in net sales was driven by increases in aluminium, power and zinc segments revenues. Aluminium, power and zinc segment revenues grew 25.3%, 46.2% and 8.4% yoy to `859cr, `910cr and `3,870cr, respectively. Aluminium and Power segments boost profitability: Sterlites EBITDA increased by 5.0% yoy to `2,527cr; the EBITDA margin stood at 22.9% (higher than our estimate mainly due to better-than-expected profitability from the aluminium and power segments). The aluminium segments EBIT grew by 106.5% yoy to `43cr and the power segment EBIT grew 260.4% yoy to `190cr. The company reported an exceptional item relating to forex gain of `302cr (including that of its associate Vedanta Aluminium (VAL) compared to a forex loss of `276cr in 2QFY2012. Hence, the adjusted net profit increased 40.1% yoy to `1,441cr, which was above our estimate of `1,299cr. Outlook and valuation: We expect Sterlite to benefit from the expansion of zinc-lead smelting capacity during FY2013-14 although its aluminium segments profitability is expected to remain under pressure. Considering the ongoing process of group restructuring by the promoter, Vedanta Resources, the valuation of Sterlite will mirror the valuation of the consolidated company, Sesa Sterlite. On account of ban on mining in Goa, we have drastically cut Sesa Goas iron ore volumes for FY2013. We recommend an Accumulate rating on the stock.
FY2011 30,429 24.2 5,043 34.7 14.3 26.5 7.0 0.8 12.9 11.5 1.1 4.0
FY2012 41,179 35.3 4,828 (4.3) 15.5 24.0 6.4 0.7 11.0 11.3 0.8 3.5
FY2013E 43,185 4.9 5,652 17.1 16.8 23.3 6.0 0.7 11.6 9.9 0.8 3.3
FY2014E 45,442 5.2 6,027 6.6 17.9 23.7 5.6 0.6 11.2 9.5 0.7 2.9
Bhavesh Chauhan
Tel: 022- 39357600 Ext: 6821 bhaveshu.chauhan@angelbroking.com
Vinay Rachh
Tel: 022- 39357600 Ext: 6841 Vinay.rachh@angelbroking.com
2QFY13 11,029 5,105 46.3 1,216 11.0 451 4.1 1,803 16.4 8,576 77.8 74 2,527 22.9 178 522 848 302 2,894 26.2 511 17.7 2,383 21.6 5.2 1,441
2QFY12 10,134 4,772 47.1 1,040 10.3 393 3.9 1,584 15.6 7,789 76.9 62 2,407 23.8 237 446 801 (276) 2,279 22.5 505 22.2 1,744 17.2 3.0 1,028
% chg yoy 8.8 7.0 16.9 14.9 13.8 10.1 19.1 5.0 (25.1) 17.1 5.8 27.0 1.2 36.6 74.4 40.1
1QFY13 10,591 5,040 47.6 1,115 10.5 450 4.3 1,735 16.4 8,340 78.7 57 2,308 21.8 242 518 948 (217) 2,279 21.5 334 14.7 1,945 18.4 3.6 1,419
% chg qoq 4.1 1.3 9.0 0.2 4.0 2.8 29.1 9.5 (26.5) 0.8 (10.6) 27.0 53.0 22.5 45.1 1.5
1HFY13 21,620 10,145 46.9 2,331 10.8 902 4.2 3,538 16.4 16,916 78.2 131 4,835 22.4 420 1,040 1,796 84 5,173 23.9 845 16.3 4,328 20.0 8.8 2,860
1HFY12 19,961 9,085 45.5 2,015 10.1 778 3.9 3,024 15.1 14,902 74.7 99 5,157 25.8 402 866 1,583 223 5,250 26.3 1,119 21.3 4,131 20.7 7.9 4,354
% chg yoy 8.3 11.7 15.7 15.9 17.0 13.5 32.6 (6.2) 4.5 20.1 13.5 (62.1) (1.5) (24.5) 4.8 11.6 (34.3)
Segmental performance
Copper segments TC/RC falls by 13.0% yoy
During 2QFY2012, copper cathode production at the Tuticorin smelter was flat yoy at 87k tonne. However, mined metal from the Australian mines increased by 14% yoy to 6k tonne. The copper segments revenues increased marginally by 1.8% yoy to `5,219cr during the quarter. Copper treatment charges and refining charges (TC/RC) decreased by 13.0% yoy to USc11.3/lb. The company reported a cost of production of USc7.1lb in 2QFY2013 compared to USc(3.7)/lb in 2QFY2012. The copper business had an exceptional item of `161cr related to forex gain. Consequently, the copper segments PAT increased by 62% yoy to `475cr in 2QFY2013. However, the PAT, excluding exceptional items, decreased by 21.1% to `314cr during the quarter.
(` cr)
150 100 50 0
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
EBIT (LHS)
Source: Company, Angel Research
2QFY13
(%)
200
4.0
(` cr)
50 0
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
(50)
2QFY13
(5.0)
EBIT (LHS)
Source: Company, Angel Research
(%)
100
(` cr)
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
EBIT (LHS)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Investment rationale
Zinc-Lead expansion to aid growth: Sterlite had commissioned a 100ktpa lead smelter at Rajpura Dariba in 1QFY2012, the full benefits of which will be witnessed in FY2013. Moreover, the expansion at the silver-rich Sindesar Khurd mine is expected to result in robust lead and silver sales volume growth in FY2013 and FY2014. SEL to reach full production capacity in FY2013: Sterlite Energy Ltd (SEL)s fourth unit of 600MW has been synchronized during 4QFY2012 and is likely to commence commercial production from 2QFY2013, the benefits of which will be reflected in FY2014. Ban on Sesa Goas mines in Goa remains a concern: During 2QFY2013, the Goa government imposed a ban on iron ore mining in Goa until further review. Later, the Ministry of Environment and Forests (MOEF) also suspended environment clearances to all functional mining leases in Goa. Sesa Goa operates several mines in the region with an annual production of 12mn tonne. While we believe the ban could be temporary, there are chances of iron ore production cap by the government/MOEF which could affect Sesa Goas production going forward. This is likely to be a key overhang on the stock in our view.
2QFY13
(%)
(` cr)
Valuation technique EV/EBIDTA EV/EBIDTA EV/EBIDTA EV/EBIDTA FCFE P/BV EV/EBIDTA BV EV/EBIDTA DCF Target multiple (x) 4.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 4.0 3.5 Equity value 12,337 (130) (9,473) 61,319 331 1,009 6,484 4,892 72,146 % Stake 100% 51% 100% 65% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 59% Value 12,337 (66) (9,473) 31,837 331 1,009 6,484 1,712 4,892 33,938 (28,797) 54,203 183 110
Bloomberg consensus
16.9 19.0
80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 2.0x 5.0x Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 8.0x 11.0x 14.0x
250 200 150 100 50 0 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 10.0x Oct-10 Apr-11 15.0x Oct-11 Apr-12 20.0x Oct-12 5.0x
(`)
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11 2.5x
Oct-11
Apr-12 3.5x
Oct-12
1.5x
TP (`)
Reco.
0.6 1.1
0.7 1.7
5.7 4.6
9.5 18.1
11.2 19.7
132
10
8.8
8.1
Company background
Sterlite is India's largest non-ferrous metals and mining company. The company produces zinc, lead and silver through its 65%-owned subsidiary, Hindustan Zinc (HZL) with zinc production capacity of 1.1mn tonne. HZL contributes ~80% to Sterlites consolidated EBITDA. Sterlite also produces aluminium (capacity - 0.7mn tonne). It also has world-class copper smelting and refining operations (capacity 0.4mn tonne). In February 2011, Sterlite, through its wholly owned subsidiary, Sterlite Infra, acquired a 100% stake in Namibian Skorpion Mines for a cash consideration of US$707mn. Skorpion mines has reserves and resources of 8.7mn tonne of zinc and lead. During January 2012, Vedanta Resources (Sesa Goa and Sterlite promoters) announced a plan to merge Sesa Goa with Sterlite. The merger has been approved by the shareholders of both the companies and it is currently awaiting various court approvals.
FY09 22,774 1,629 21,144 21,144 (14.4) 16,440 10,634 5,050 756 4,704 (40.2) 22.2 701 4,003 (45.0) 18.9 397 2,154 37.4 5,760 (32.4) 55 5,816 855 14.7 4,961 (154) 1,267 3,540 3,493 (21.3) 16.5 12.3 12.3 (21.3)
FY10 25,614 1,204 24,501 182 24,682 16.7 18,207 12,139 5,214 854 6,475 37.6 26.4 750 5,725 43.0 23.2 292 1,506 21.7 6,939 20.5 (297) 6,642 1,233 18.6 5,409 59 1,724 3,744 3,986 14.1 16.1 11.9 11.9 (3.8)
FY11 32,276 1,847 30,429 30,429 23.3 22,379 14,370 6,877 1,132 8,050 24.3 26.5 1,030 7,020 22.6 23.1 351 2,522 27.4 9,191 32.4 (57) 9,134 1,812 19.8 7,322 (285) 1,995 5,043 5,088 27.7 16.7 15.0 14.3 20.8
FY12 43,116 1,937 41,179 41,179 35.3 31,316 18,844 10,859 1,612 9,863 22.5 24.0 1,830 8,034 14.4 19.5 852 3,163 30.6 10,344 12.6 (473) 9,872 2,111 21.4 7,761 (772) 2,161 4,828 5,225 2.7 12.7 14.4 15.5 8.5
FY13E 46,940 3,755 43,185 43,185 4.9 33,119 20,902 10,404 1,814 10,066 2.1 23.3 2,143 7,923 (1.4) 18.3 809 3,671 34.0 10,785 4.3 10,785 2,373 22.0 8,413 (657) 2,103 5,652 5,652 8.2 13.1 16.8 16.8 8.2
FY14E 49,393 3,951 45,442 45,442 5.2 34,652 21,903 10,840 1,909 10,790 7.2 23.7 2,483 8,307 4.8 18.3 1,006 3,726 33.8 11,028 2.2 11,028 2,426 22.0 8,602 (596) 1,978 6,027 6,027 6.6 13.3 17.9 17.9 6.6
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
FY09 142 25,471 25,613 6,813 7,014 1,408 40,847 15,387 5,155 10,232 6,979 16,206 11,636 5,505 2,715 3,416 4,205 7,431 0.0 40,847
FY10 168 36,844 37,012 8,410 9,260 1,552 56,234 18,179 5,913 12,266 11,084 20,304 17,511 3,338 10,499 3,674 4,932 12,580 0.0 56,234
FY11 336 41,099 41,435 10,291 10,948 2,179 3,530 8,299 66,036 31,125 9,727 21,397 9,919 12,904 33,918 6,051 52 26,224 9,502 9,575 7,147 8,410 17,814 0.0 66,036
FY12 336 45,720 46,056 12,199 14,473 2,208 5,728 8,930 76,401 37,226 11,755 25,471 12,092 17,623 43,442 6,806 25,272 8,539 9,964 6,316 9,082 16,190 0.0 76,401
FY13E 336 50,711 51,047 14,302 14,973 2,208 5,728 8,930 83,995 43,726 13,898 29,828 10,092 17,623 43,442 6,806 30,142 12,367 9,964 7,358 8,715 21,427 0.0 83,995
FY14E 336 56,032 56,369 16,280 15,473 2,208 5,728 8,930 91,796 51,726 16,380 35,345 8,092 17,623 43,442 6,806 34,590 16,431 9,964 7,743 8,880 25,710 0.0 91,796
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
10
FY12 1,830
(3,708) (5,464)
5,484 (2,822) (5,340) (6,898) 88(4,098.3) 1,939 248 7,653 2,246 449
8,489 10,269 500 661 (161) 3,828 500 705 (205) 4,064
(5,252) (10,996)
(502) (1,311) (457) (1,073) 1,604 1,698 214 9,502 662 (460) 2,124
(1,128) (2,201) 2,819 11,651 3,051 (2,167) 2,454 5,505 5,505 3,338
8,539 12,367
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
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Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio (%) Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WCcycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.)
comparable with previous year ratios
FY09 8.1 6.8 1.1 1.4 1.0 4.3 0.5 12.3 12.3 14.8 1.4 90.4 18.9 85.3 0.7 12.0 5.6 0.0 12.2 10.6 13.9 14.6 1.4 50 15 41 44 0.0 0.1 10.1
FY10 8.4 7.1 0.9 1.3 1.1 4.4 0.5 11.9 11.9 14.1 1.3 110.1 23.2 81.4 0.6 11.2 2.9 0.1 12.2 11.8 16.3 12.7 1.5 41 8 53 83 0.1 0.7 19.6
FY11 7.0 5.5 0.8 1.8 1.1 4.0 0.5 15.0 14.3 18.2 1.8 123.3 23.1 80.2 0.7 12.1 2.8 0.0 12.2 11.5 15.9 13.0 1.2 49 19 52 105 0.0 0.1 20.0
FY12 6.4 4.8 0.7 1.8 0.8 3.5 0.4 14.4 15.5 21.0 1.8 137.0 19.5 78.6 0.7 11.3 5.3 0.1 11.9 11.3 15.7 11.9 1.2 43 19 39 71 0.1 0.4 9.4
FY13E 5.9 4.3 0.7 2.0 0.8 3.3 0.4 16.8 16.8 23.2 2.0 151.9 18.3 78.0 0.7 10.0 4.3 0.0 10.3 9.9 13.5 11.6 1.1 43 19 39 71 0.0 0.2 9.8
FY14E 5.6 4.0 0.6 2.1 0.7 2.9 0.3 17.9 17.9 25.3 2.1 167.7 18.3 78.0 0.7 9.6 9.6 9.5 12.9 11.2 1.0 43 19 39 74 (0.0) (0.1) 8.3
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence some ratios may not be
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E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Sterlite Industries No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns) :
13