Starbucks Presentation
Starbucks Presentation
Starbucks Presentation
September 2006
This case study has been prepared by Tim Morris of Coriolis Research specifically for the Food Executive Program. It is designed to provide the basis for class discussion rather than to illustrate the effective or ineffective handling of a management situation.
Understanding Starbucks
this Starbuck seemed prepared to endure for long ages to come, and to endure always, as now; for be it Polar snow or torrid sun, like a patent chronometer, his interior vitality was warranted to do well in all climates. Herman Melville, Moby Dick, 1851
Note: Starbucks three original founders were an English teacher, a history teacher and a writer; the chain is names after the first mate in Melvilles Moby Dick
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Understanding Starbucks
Starbucks
Understanding Starbucks
DOCUMENT STRUCTURE - PART A Starbucks has had a strong growth story so far
Document Structure
(model)
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Understanding Starbucks
STARBUCKS TIME LINE Starbucks has its origin in a single store started in Seattle in 1971; however, the current business was started in 1987 by Howard Schultz
Starbucks Time line
(1966-2005)
1966 1971 1982 1982 1984 1984 1986 1987 1988 1987 1991 1991 1992 1994 1996 1998 1998 1998 2000 2001 2003 2003 2005
Dutch immigrant Alfred Peet opens a European-style coffee store in Berkeley California Jerry Baldwin, Zev Siegel & Gordon Bowker opened Starbucks store in Seattle, WA selling coffee beans after having been students at U.C. Berkeley and buying coffee at Peet's; coffee comes from Peets for first year Four Starbucks stores in Seattle, selling beans & coffee makers Howard Schultz hired as Marketing Manager from coffee packaging & equipment company Hammerplast Baldwin and others purchase Peets Coffee (now 5 stores) Schultz inspired after a visit to Italy the sixth store opens with an espresso bar Schultz frustrated with Starbucks leaves and opens Il Giornale an Italian espresso bar Il Giornale acquires Starbucks for $3.8m (but not Peets) from Baldwin & others. Starbucks Corporation is formed with Howard Schultz as president and CEO all stores rebranded with new logo and called Starbucks Develops a mail order catalogue Entered Chicago followed by Portland, Oregon Entered California Started employee stock options Starbucks goes public with IPO with 165 stores Entered into agreement with Pepsi Co to distribute shelf-stable coffee-flavored beverages in bottles and cans First Starbucks outside North America in Tokyo, Japan Entered into supermarkets International expansion Entered New Zealand Entered Australia Entered Switzerland the first Continental European store Starbucks purchases Seattle's Best Coffee and Torrefazione Italia from AFC Enterprises Starbucks has over 6,400 stores worldwide James (Jim) Donald takes over as new Starbucks CEO; Starbucks has 10,241 stores worldwide
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Understanding Starbucks
PHENOMENAL UNIT GROWTH Starbucks store numbers have shown phenomenal growth
Total number of Starbucks stores
(units; actual; 1986-2005)
10,241
8,569
7,225
5,886 4,709
1 1986
11 1987
26 1988
46 1989
75 1990
107 1991
154 1992
253
427
676
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
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Understanding Starbucks
PHENOMENAL SALES GROWTH Starbucks sales growth has also been phenomenal
Starbucks group sales growth
(US$; millions; 1987-2005)
$6,369.3
$5,294.2
$4,075.5
$1.3 1987
$10.2 1988
$19.2 1989
$35.4 1990
$57.7 1991
$93.1 1992
$163.5
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
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Note: This is Starbucks corporate sales, not systemwide sales including those of franchisees; Source: various Starbucks annual reports, 10K and prospectus
Understanding Starbucks
MULTIPLE REVENUE STREAMS Starbucks receives revenue from company-owned stores, franchised stores, licensed grocery products, foodservice and other ventures
Starbucks group structure
(US$; millions; 2005)
Retail $5,392m
Licensing $673m
Other $304m
Grocery $238m
Foodservice $276m
Other $28m
Understanding Starbucks
Starbucks
Understanding Starbucks
KEY COMPETITION Starbucks is by far the largest chain coffee store operator in North America
Profile of major North America-based coffee/coffee-related chains
(various; 2005)
# of worldwide units 10,241 4,815 2,801 463 629 424 221 75 32 21 402 201 +338 416 375 249 170 118 110 390 200+ 154 130+ 100+ 773 $3,854m $3,720m ? $216m $363m ? ? ? ? $900m ? $198m ? $150m ? $145.7m $58.2m ? ? ? ? $74.3m Systemwide Sales (2005) Countries of operation 38 15 2 10 29 1 Ownership Public (NYSE: STBX) Private equity: Bain Capital, etc Public (NYSE: THI) Flour mill: Daylight Donut Flour Co. Private equity: Roark Capital Private equity: New World Restaurant Group; 95% Greenlight Capital Comments Sold by Allied Domecq in 2005 Wendys spin-off IPO 2005 No franchise fee Starbucks owned 25% of Noahs bagels, with rights to buy all, but sold shares instead Sold intl. franchise to 338 stores and brand and rights to Jareh Int. (AU franchisee) in Feb 2005 All stores in Canada Sold by founders in 2003
Starbucks Dunkin Donuts Tim Hortons Daylight Donuts Cinnabon Einstein Bros. Bagels Manhattan Bagels Noahs Bagels Chesapeake Bagel Bakery New World Coffee Krispy Kreme Diedrich Coffee Gloria Jeans Coffee People Caribou Coffee Second Cup Brueggers Bagels Winchells Donuts Peets Coffee Tullys Coffee Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf The Coffee Beanery Brewsters Coffee Timothys Coffee Barnies Coffee
7 1 +20 4 4 1 4 1 2 14 4 2 2 6+
Public (NYSE: KKD) Public (NASDAQ: DDRX) + Jareh International (AU) Public (NASDAQ: CBOU) Private Private equity: Sun Capital Partners Private Public (NASDAQ: PEET) Private Private; CEO + investor group Private Public (OTC: BAB) Private Private
Licensed brand to Tullys Japan Purchased by investors 1998 Also bagel & muffin chains Primarily Canada Selling 56 stores to Starbucks
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Source: R&I; Hoovers; Wikipedia; various websites; various 10K; various published articles; Coriolis analysis
Understanding Starbucks
KEY COMPETITION Starbucks is also the largest chain coffee store operator in the world
Profile of major International coffee/coffee-related chains
(various; 2005) Starbucks Japan Doutor Coffee Tullys Coffee Japan United Kingdom Costa Coffee Caff Nero Coffee Republic Madisons Coffee Europe Tchibo Eduscho Sigafredo Zanetti Illycaffe Other Gloria Jeans Caf Coffee Day Seattles Best International 338 198 150 ? ? ? 20 India 12 Jareh International (AU) Amalgamated Bean Coffee Traders Private equity: Roark Capital Bought intl. franchise to 338 stores and brand in Feb 2005 Roaster with franchised stores Non-U.S. stores only 900+ 300+ 150+ ? ? ? 12 35+ 20+ Massimo Zanetti Beverage Group Primarily in Germany Italys #1 coffee roaster 500 285 44 19 143m 70.1m 17.6m ? 8+ U.K. U.K. U.K. Whitbread (London: WTB) Public (London: CFN) Public (London: CFE) Private equity: Penta Capital Converting to deli-style 121 international; 1,000 by 2010 1,424 330 ? ? 5+ Japan Public (Tokyo: 9952) Public (Japan) Stores are franchised under multiple brands Licensed from Tullys Coffee US # of worldwide units 10,241 Systemwide Sales (2005) Countries of operation 38 Ownership Public (NYSE: STBX) Comments -
Source: R&I; Hoovers; Wikipedia; various websites; various 10K; various published articles; Coriolis analysis
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Understanding Starbucks
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Understanding Starbucks
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Understanding Starbucks
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Understanding Starbucks
SEVEN PART STRATEGY Starbucks outlined a seven part strategy for growth in its 1991 prospectus - and by-and-large has stuck to it since
Starbucks corporate strategy from IPO prospectus
(1991) Strategy 1 Highest-quality coffee 2 Vertical integration 3 Customer service Details Starbucks believes its standards for the selection, roasting and fresh delivery of Arabica coffee beans and beverages are among the highest in the coffee industry In order to manage costs and ensure compliance with the Companys rigorous standards of freshness, quality and consistency, the company controls its coffee sourcing, roasting, and retail sales. The company believes this vertical integration provides significant competitive advantages. Starbucks goal is to develop customers who are enthusiastically satisfied every time they visit a Starbucks store. The Company depends on a high level of repeat business and views the quality of its customer interaction with employees as critical to its long-term success. Through its emphasis on training, personnel development, and equity incentives, the Company believes it attracts and retains well-qualified, highly motivated employees committed to providing superior levels of customer service. The Company combines its merchandising strategy with its marketing programs to create and reinforce a distinctive brand image built on the quality of its coffees. In its retail stores, the Company incorporates extensive use of the Starbucks logo with innovative packaging, unique product presentation, and the sale of high-quality coffee-making equipment and accessories. Starbucks aim is to be a source for comprehensive information about the origins and characteristics of coffees, and the preparation methods that result in the best coffee and espresso beverages. Starbucks stores are designed to suggest a sense of sophistication and style that reinforce the Companys distinctive brand image. Stores are typically configured to accommodate a high volume of traffic, while retaining an inviting, casual atmosphere. Starbucks site selection strategy is to cluster stores in high-traffic, high-visibility locations in each of its target markets in order to realize operating and marketing efficiencies and enhance brand awareness. Starbucks retail expansion strategy is to increase its market share in existing markets and open stores in new markets where it believes it can become the leading specialty coffee retailer. To a lesser extent, the Company will continue to expand its specialty sales and direct mail business, and will selectively pursue other distribution channels.
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Understanding Starbucks
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Understanding Starbucks
1. HIGHEST QUALITY COFFEE A MAJOR BUYER Starbucks buys about 2% of global coffee production
Major global buyers of coffee
(% of volume; 2005)
Nestle 22.2%
Other 44.8%
Melitta 1.4%
Starbucks
Source: Starbucks CSR 2005; Deutsche Bank; Euromonitor; FAO; Coriolis analysis Starbucks 17
Understanding Starbucks
2. VERTICAL INTEGRATION Starbucks keeps tight control over its supply chain and retail stores
Structure of Starbucks supply chain
(% of volume; 2005) Starbucks supervision Starbucks Control
Large-scale Estates
Small Farms
Cooperatives
142m kg of coffee
Source: Starbucks CSR 2005; Deutsche Bank; Euromonitor; FAO; Coriolis analysis
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Understanding Starbucks
3. CUSTOMER SERVICE Starbucks believes superior customer service comes from having well paid, well trained employees
Starbucks customer service concept
(model)
Source: Starbucks
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Understanding Starbucks
3. CUSTOMER SERVICE TREAT EMPLOYEES WELL Starbucks treats its employees well
I believe very strongly that the success of our company has been achieved because of the relationship with our people Howard Schultz, CEO, Starbucks, 2003 My dad was a blue-collar worker. He didnt have health insurance or benefits, and I saw firsthand the debilitating effect that had on him and on our family. I decided if I was ever in the position to make a contribution to others in that way, I would The desire to scrimp on these essentials helps reinforce the sense of mediocrity that seems into many companies. Without them, people dont feel financially or spiritually tied to their jobs Were building a national company by creating pride in and a stake in the outcome of our labor. Howard Schultz, CEO, Starbucks, 1993 Core strategy to win employee loyalty and commitment to the companys mission. Extensive health care benefits to full and part-time workers, including preventive care, crisis counselling, dental care, eye care, mental health care, and treatment for chemical dependency. A stock option plan for all employees Bean Stock Store employees paid well above the minimum wage Employees were also encouraged to speak their minds without fear of retribution from upper management. Better benefits attract good people and keep them longer. Schultzs rationale was that if you treat your employees well, they will treat your customers well. As a result Starbucks had low staff turnover 65% compared to the industry rate ranging from 150 to 400 percent a year. Every partner/barista hired for a retail job in a Starbucks store received at least 24 hours training in the first two to four weeks. Training aimed to perfect the quality of the coffee and the customer experience. Schultz said Starbucks expects to spend about $200 million this year for health care for its 80,000 U.S. employees more than the total amount it spends on green coffee from Africa, Indonesia and other countries.
Associated Press, Sept 2005
Morale is very high in my store among the staff. Ive worked for a lot of companies, but Ive never seen this level of respect. Its a company thats very true to its workers, and it shows. Our customers always comment that were happy and having fun. In fact, a lot of people ask if they can work here. Starbucks store manager
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Understanding Starbucks
3. CUSTOMER SERVICE STOCK OPTIONS All employees with the company for more than six months qualify for stock options
In October 1991, the Bean Stock program was unveiled, in which everyone who has worked at least six months for the company (including part-time employees) were eligible for stock options. These revolutionary practices helped to keep employee turnover at just one-half to one- third of the restaurant industrys average. To this day, Starbucks turnover rate remains one of the lowest in the sector. Mark Kalinowski, analyst, Salomon Smith Barney, April 2000
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Understanding Starbucks
3. CUSTOMER SERVICE CUSTOMER LOYALTY As a result of good customer service, Starbucks achieves strong customer loyalty
We believe Starbucks brand cachet gives it an enviable position as simply the best in customers eyes. The average Starbucks customer visits an outlet 18 times per month testament to the loyalty the brand engenders. We believe the companys clientele associates the Starbucks brand with quality, great customer service, and a pleasant, upscale overall experience. We are aware of very few other large-scale businesses in any industry that consumers tend to patronize more than every other day, on average. This loyalty leads us to believe that the lifecycle of the Starbucks concept could far exceed the restaurant industry average. To date, the company has never posted a month with flat or down same-store sales growth. Mark Kalinowski, analyst, Salomon Smith Barney, April 2000
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Understanding Starbucks
3. CUSTOMER SERVICE MEASURE CUSTOMER SATISFACTION Starbucks constantly monitors customer service and satisfaction through its Snapshot mystery shopper program
A further encouraging sign is the rising mystery shopper scores earned by the firms retail outlets. The mystery shopper program termed Snapshot encourages selected shoppers to rate items such as the outside store environment, the wait in line, friendliness and knowledge of the barista (person behind the counter), food and beverage quality, store cleanliness, and merchandise quality and layout. Mark Kalinowski, analyst, Salomon Smith Barney,
April 2000
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Understanding Starbucks
4. MERCHANDISING & MARKETING Starbucks works hard to clearly and consistently reinforce and build its brand image
The Company combines its merchandising strategy with its marketing programs to create and reinforce a distinctive brand image for its coffees. The Company's merchandising strategy is reflected in its product mix, product pricing, and sale and educational materials. Starbucks 10K 1996 Educating customers about specialty coffee is an important element of Starbucks merchandising strategy. Starbucks store employees are trained to be knowledgeable and conversant in the qualitative aspects of coffee, and each store provides educational booklets and materials to allow customers to understand the differences among each of Starbucks blends and varietals as well as the Companys coffee and those offered by others. Point-of-sale materials are designed to entertain and inform the customers about the unique qualities of Starbucks coffees, and to reinforce Starbucks high-quality image. Starbucks Prospectus 1992
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Understanding Starbucks
5. STORE DESIGN & ATMOSPHERE Stores are designed to be one of three places where customers relax and feel comfortable their home, their work and Starbucks
The CEOs vision: An authentic coffee experience that conveyed the artistry of espresso making, a place to think and imagine, a spot where people could gather and talk over a great cup of coffee, a comforting refuge that provided a sense of community, a third place for people to congregate beyond work or the home, a place that welcomed people and rewarded them for coming, and a layout that could accommodate both fast service and quiet moments. Howard
The Company's retail goal is to become the leading retailer and brand of coffee in each of its target markets by selling the finest quality coffee and related products and by providing each customer a unique Starbucks Experience. The Starbucks Experience, or third place experience, after home and work, is built upon superior customer service as well as clean and well-maintained Company-operated retail stores that reflect the personalities of the communities in which they operate, thereby building a high degree of customer loyalty. Starbucks 10k, 2005 Starbucks designs its stores to suggest a sense of sophistication and style, and hopes each store will become a neighborhood gathering place. The company designs each of its stores in-house and uses high-quality building materials and fixtures to reinforce an upscale brand image. Most stores are configured to accommodate a high volume of traffic, while retaining an inviting, casual atmosphere. Starbucks Prospectus 1992 To keep its image fresh and fashionable, Starbucks has designers and architects in-house. At headquarters, designers examine palettes of soft-colored tiles and test the angle of banquette seat backs. Business Week, Oct 1994
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Understanding Starbucks
6. STORE LOCATIONS Starbucks has strong capabilities around selecting the best site for a store
Starbucks retail stores are typically located in high-traffic, high-visibility locations. Because the Company can vary the size and format, its stores are located in or near a variety of settings, including downtown and suburban retail centers, office buildings and university campuses. While the Company selectively locates stores in shopping malls, it focuses on locations that provide convenient access for pedestrians and drivers. With the flexibility in store size and format, the Company also locates retail stores in select rural and off-highway locations to serve a broader array of customers outside major metropolitan markets and further expand brand awareness. To provide a greater degree of access and convenience for non-pedestrian customers, the Company has increased development of drive-thru retail stores. At the end of fiscal 2005, the Company operated approximately 1,100 drive-thru locations. Starbucks 10k 2005
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Understanding Starbucks
7. RAPID EXPANSION Right from the start Starbucks intended to dominate the United States coffee market while maintaining strong control and discipline
If we are going to build a 100-storie skyscraper, we have to build a foundation strong enough to sustain 100 stories I believe in the adage: Hire people smarter than you are and get out of their way. Howard Schultz, CEO, Starbucks, 1994 The strategy was to open only company-owned stores; franchising was avoided so as to keep the company in full control of the quality of its products and the character and location of its stores Starbucks used geographic Expansion of zones based around city hubs which had favorable demographic profiles and could also be serviced and supported by the company's operations infrastructure. Teams of professionals were located in hub cities to support the goal of opening 20 or more stores in the hub in the first two years. Once stores blanketed the hub, then additional stores were opened in smaller, surrounding "spoke" areas in the region. Howard Schultz, CEO, Starbucks, 1994 Schultz envisions a nation of Starbucks zealots, their coffee palates as discerning as wine connoisseurs. He sees a Starbucks in every North American neighborhood, anchoring each community like an Irish pub, and a pound of Starbucks House Blend in every kitchen. In short, Howard Schultz wants the coffee craze he created in Seattle to extend across the nation. Success magazine, April 1995
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Understanding Starbucks
7. RAPID EXPANSION - DEVELOPED DOMINANT POSITION By growing rapidly, Starbucks has developed a dominant position in the United States market
Specialty Coffee stores in the United States
(units; actual; 1992-2005) 21,400
18,600 17,400
32%
35%
36%
15,400
13,739
30%
Other
24%
12,600
11,883
12,096
10,000
10,826 9,624
6,700
8,245
3,600 2,250
2,085 165 1992 425 1994 3,175
6,504
7,661
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2000
2002
2003
2004
2005
Understanding Starbucks
7. RAPID EXPANSION ACQUISITIONS IMPORTANT Strategic bolt-on acquisitions have been an important growth vehicle for Starbucks at certain points during its US growth
Starbucks United States retail coffee outlet acquisitions
(various; 1987-2006) Date 1987 Target Starbucks # of outlets 7
Price $3.8m
Location Seattle
Description Il Giornale (3 stores) acquires Starbucks. Starbucks Corporation is formed with Howard Schultz as president and CEO all stores rebranded with new logo and called Starbucks East Coast coffee roaster/retailer; all converted
1994 1999
$20.4m $9m
East Coast San Francisco Los Angeles New York United States Florida National 48
Regional roaster and retailer of specialty coffee with 48 retail outlets, 8 licensed airport locations, a coffee roasting plant, three commissaries and two bakeries; all converted Seattles Best Coffee and Torrefazione Italia chains from AFC 70 company-owned; 76 franchised Buying 56 Barnies outlets, mostly in Florida All Diedrich company-owned Diedrich and Coffee People stores; ; does not include wholesale roasting or franchised stores
146 56 40
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Understanding Starbucks
7. RAPID EXPANSION COMPETITORS DIDNT DELIVER Starbucks US competitors have failed to deliver
Specialty coffee chain growth in the US: Starbucks vs leading competitors
(units; actual; 1995 v 2005)
# of units 1995 Starbucks Gloria Jeans The Coffee Beanery Barnie's Coffee Timothy's World Coffee New World Coffee Seattles Best Coffee Caribou Coffee Coffee People Other Total 682 230 157 86 70 27 24 20 19 3,685 5,000 2005 7,661 147 200 100 130 21 * 322 * 12,794 21,400
Absolute Change + 6,979 (83) +43 +14 +60 (6) * +302 * +9,109 +16,400
CAGR (95-05) 27% -4% 2% 2% 6% -2% * 32% * 13% 16% Sold to Starbucks 2006 Sold to Starbucks 2003
Note: Uses only specialty-coffee focused competitors, not donutbased chains which are not included by the SCA in industry data
Source: Specialty Coffee Association of America; Starbucks 10K; Coriolis analysis Starbucks 30
Understanding Starbucks
7. RAPID EXPANSION GROWTH OF LICENSING Starbucks unit growth is being helped by its increasing use of licensing
Total number of Starbucks stores by ownership and location
(units; actual; 1986-2005)
10,000
Licensed - International
8,000
4,000
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
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Understanding Starbucks
7. RAPID EXPANSION LICENSEES ARE CHAINS Starbucks United States licensees are major chain store operators able to bolt-on a Starbucks to an existing location, not individual franchisees
Breakdown of Starbucks licensees in the United States
(units; actual; 2005)
Safeway 617 Other 781 30% 24%
Albertson's Borders 129 5% Kroger 178 7% Target 400 15% Total = 2,584
Source: various Starbucks annual reports, 10K and prospectus Starbucks 32
329 13%
Understanding Starbucks
7. RAPID EXPANSION POSITIVES & NEGATIVES TO LICENSEES Licensing has both positives and negatives for Starbucks
In general, selling to licensees is a lower-margin endeavor compared with opening company outlets, although it requires much less capital. The company provides products (mostly coffee) to the licensed sites, and also gains a perunit development fee (with the exception of the Barnes & Noble locations). In addition, we believe Starbucks receives a blended license fee in the middle- to high-end of the 2%7% industry norm this figure represents a percentage of gross sales. Mark Kalinowski, analyst, Salomon Smith Barney, April 2000 In its licensed retail store operations, the Company leverages the expertise of its local partners and shares Starbucks operating and store development experience. Licensee partners are typically master concessionaires, which can provide improved access to desirable retail space, or prominent retailers with in-depth market knowledge and access. As part of these arrangements, Starbucks receives license fees and royalties and sells coffee, tea, CDs and related products for resale in licensed locations. Employees working in licensed retail locations are required to follow Starbucks detailed store operating procedures and attend training classes similar to those given to Company-operated store managers and employees. Starbucks 10k 2005 While the profit dollar contribution of the licensed business is only about one quarter of a similar company-owned store, it has a strong positive contribution to profit margins given the high flow through of licensed fees. As illustrated below, the rapid increase in licensed units has provided a strong uptick in licensed revenues and has been one of the keys to U.S. margin expansion in recent quarters. John Glass, analyst, CIBC, March 2006 The rapid growth in licensed units raises the issue of cannibalization of company-owned units. While this is possible to some degree, these fears are generally overblown, in our view. Among the reasons: Most licensed units are in captive locationsairports and supermarketsand therefore dont directly compete with traditional company-owned units. Licensed locations in supermarkets generate substantially lower volumes than do company-owned units, and therefore their market share is much lower than their unit share. John Glass, analyst, CIBC, June 2004
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Understanding Starbucks
DOCUMENT STRUCTURE PART C Starbucks still has further opportunities for growth
Document Structure
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Understanding Starbucks
FOUR OPPORTUNITIES FOR GROWTH Our research indicates Starbucks has four major opportunities for future growth
Starbucks four opportunities for growth
(model)
New channels
New concepts
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Understanding Starbucks
1. MORE TO EXISTING CUSTOMERS Starbucks first opportunity for growth is to sell more to its existing customers
Starbucks four opportunities for growth
(model)
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Understanding Starbucks
AVERAGE STORE SALES GROWTH Starbucks has managed to grow average store turnover
Average annual sales of Starbucks company owned stores in the Unites States
(US$; 000; 1987-2005) CAGR (02-05) 10.4%
$885
$933
$785
$623 $586
$642
$646
$652
$94
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
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Understanding Starbucks
STRONG SAME STORE SALES GROWTH Starbucks has generally delivered on strong same-store sales growth in the 6-8% range - since its IPO
Monthly same store sales growth of US company owned stores
(% change; actual; 1993-2006)
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0% Apr-94 Apr-95 Apr-96 Apr-97 Apr-98 Apr-99 Apr-00 Apr-01 Apr-02 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06
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Oct-93
Oct-94
Oct-95
Oct-96
Oct-97
Oct-98
Oct-99
Oct-00
Oct-01
Oct-02
Oct-03
Oct-04
Source: various Starbucks annual reports, quarterly reports, 10K and prospectus
Oct-05
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Understanding Starbucks
BEVERAGES DOMINATE The average Starbucks store has a turnover of $80,000 per week, 77% of which is beverages
Average weekly Starbucks sales mix in US company owned stores
(US$; % of sales; 2005)
Coffee-related hardware Whole bean coffee $720 / 4% Food $2,700 15% $720 / 4%
Total = $80,000/week
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Understanding Starbucks
BEVERAGES DRIVING GROWTH Beverages are increasing their share of the mix and thus driving growth
Changing sales mix by product in US company owned stores
(% of sales; 1993-2005)
14%
15%
16%
16%
16%
14%
15%
14%
Food items
+1%
55%
57%
58%
61%
63%
66%
69%
73%
75%
77%
78%
77%
77%
Beverages
+22%
21%
19%
17%
15%
14% 7% 1997
12% 8% 1998
10% 6% 1999
8% 5% 2000
10% 1993
9% 1994
9% 1995
7% 4% 2001
8% 1996
6% 4% 2002
5% 5% 2003
5% 4% 2004
4% 4% 2005
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Understanding Starbucks
MORNING DAY-PART FOCUS Starbucks has struggled to expand beyond its morning day-part
There is room for better throughput and better utilization of non-A.M. day-parts, particularly, with better positioned food products that do not increase operational complexity or diminish speed of service. On this subject, we believe the grab and go tests have particular merit. The company has identified sweet spots where they believe they can improve sales with introduction of additional products, particularly the noon to 2:00 p.m. period (just 11.4% of retail sales currently), and the late night 7:00 p.m. to 10:00 p.m. period which represents just 10.5% of sales. Scott Ackerman,
analyst, Piper Jaffray, Dec 1998
Starbucks continues to seek to expand its day-parts. More than 50% of the companys sales are made before noon, giving it significant capacity in the afternoon and evening to expand its business. The companys rollout of lunch is one way it seeks to drive the afternoon day-part. Starbucks also rolled out a larger dessert line, as well as Chantico, a gourmet chocolate drink, in 2005 to drive the evening day-part as well. Chantico was recently discontinued. Thus far, Starbucks has not been able to meaningfully shift the day-part mix, but it is something it continues to work on. Ashley
Reed Woodruff, analyst, Bear Stearns, March 2006
Starbucks revenues by daypart are most heavily skewed toward the morning, with about 40% of sales coming before 11 a.m. We believe the largest opportunities are for lunch historically a slower time of day for Starbucks. Mark
Historically, Starbucks has been unable to change its day-part mix of sales Considering Starbucks historical inability to change its day-part mix of sales, speed of service has become increasingly important, as it governs the total sales potential for a concepts stores. Starbucks has focused on improving speed of service through training, technology, and process improvement. Technology that has recently been considered includes automatic espresso machines, point-of-sale technology We believe that this will be the critical metric to watch to forecast same-store sales growth. Howard Penney, analyst, Friedman, Billings Ramsey & Co., Feb 2005
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Understanding Starbucks
RANGE EXTENSION/IMPROVEMENT Starbucks has a number of opportunities to extend and improve its range
Range extension opportunities to increase same-store sales
(model)
Objective of range A. New beverage products B. Better food - Sandwiches - Cooked Attract new customers Generate excitement (e.g. seasonal) Improve food offer Offer sandwiches, either pre-prepared or made-on-site Expand into short-order meals prepared on site Leverage and expand existing in-store music and CD program
Challenges - Developing new variants that cut through the clutter - Increasing complexity for marginal gains
- Increased spoilage - Increased labor - as above plus - Need a larger box to accommodate kitchen - Space required for displays and inventory - Inventory requirements (unless digital) - Unclear point-of-difference v. Apple/iTunes - True growth engine or management distraction?
C. Music
D. Other
various
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Understanding Starbucks
A. NEW BEVERAGE PRODUCTS Starbucks constantly develops and launches new beverage products
Starbucks new beverage products launched
(1995-2006)
Year 1995 1995 1997 1997 1997 1997 1998 1998 1999 1999 2000 Product Frappuccino Infusia Venti Power Frappuccino Chai Tea Latte Starbucks Barista Milder Dimensions Tiazzi Tazo Tea Cream & Caramel Frappiccino Caramel Apple Cider White Chocolate Mocha Chocolate Brownie Frappuccino Orange Mocha Chip Frappuccino Gingerbread Latte Crme Frappiccino Ciantico Chai-Eggnog Latte Eggnog Frappuccino Cinnamon Dolce Latte Marble Mocha Macchiato Various seasonal Icy, creamy low fat beverage Range of teas; didnt really work; later acquired Tazo Tea New larger 20 oz size beverage cup; later raised to 24 oz Frappuccino that is packed with protein, carbohydrates and a healthy boost of 12 essential vitamins geared towards the health-conscious consumer Combination of black teas, exotic spices, honey and milk Home espresso machine with portafilter system that accomodates both ground coffee and Starbucks new espresso pods Four blends with a lighter roasted, milder taste profile Blended juiced tea in mango, citrus and wild berry flavors (caffeine free) Via acquisition
Now with more cream Drinking chocolate beverage (discontinued 2006) Various seasonal
Source: various Starbucks annual reports, 10K; published articles; analyst reports; Coriolis analysis
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Understanding Starbucks
BEVERAGE ACQUISITIONS The company has also made two strategic beverage company acquisitions (tea and water) to bring a better product range into the business than could be developed internally
Starbucks beverage acquisitions
(various; 1999-2005) Date 1999 Target Tazo Tea Company Price $8.1m Location United States # of outlets Description Small manufacturer of a range of specialty teas, filterbag teas and ready-to-drink teas Privately held bottled water company based in California
2005
Ethos Brands
$8m
California
Source: various Starbucks annual reports, 10K; published articles; analyst reports; Coriolis analysis
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Understanding Starbucks
BEVERAGE OBJECTIVES New beverages attempt to attract new customers, expand range positioning and increase margins
Attract new customers / health positioning As the company focuses on the trend toward healthy options, we believe it has begun its journey toward health, with a key component of this platform being the extension of the Tazo Tea brand We believe that tea is an exciting new growth area, one that corresponds with the journey toward a healthy lifestyle and one in which Starbucks is well-positioned to extend its product portfolio and complement its existing brand. We expect future new product innovations to expand the Tazo tea brand. Nicole Miller, analyst, Thnik Equity, July 2006
Attract new customers / increase margins In general, iced beverages offer much higher margins than hot coffee. Beverages in general are more profitable than food and merchandise, rendering the continued shift favoring coffee beverages a meaningful positive from the P&L standpoint, despite the greater labor-intensity associated with hand-crafted beverages.
Mark Kalinowski, analyst, Salomon Smith Barney, April 2000
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Understanding Starbucks
B. BETTER FOOD Starbucks has made a number of attempts to expand and improve its food offer
Starbucks attempts to expand/improve its food offer
(various; 1999-2005) Year 1999 Product Core food program Donuts Sandwich & salad lunch program Dessert program Bar Chocolate Warm breakfast sandwich Details Improve the food offering with a focus on the morning day-part Baked goods prepared off-site by contract caterer Offer donuts made by Krispy Kreme 10 high-quality sandwiches along with several salads Trials of lunch programs in 7 major markets Originally developed by Pasqua acquisition; adopted by Starbucks Aimed at the evening day-part; entails broadening the dessert range Range of Starbucks branded bar chocolate aimed at impulse purchase Requires the baristas to heat up breakfast sandwiches (e.g., sausage and egg English muffins) in an oven Enables Starbucks to compete with the more traditional hot fast-food breakfast providers, like McDonalds Outcome 1999: tested in 10 markets 2000+: rolled out to 85%+ of stores Ongoing in 200+ stores in some markets where Krispy Kreme is located 1999: trialed in 150 stores in 7 markets 2000-2001: roll-out to 700 stores 2002: pull-back and revamp of quality 2003+: In rollout mode; 37% of stores (05)
1999 1999
In most stores In most stores 2005: testing in 200 stores in Seattle and Wash. D.C. 2006: adding 400 more stores in three new markets (Chicago, San Francisco, and Portland, Oregon)
Source: various Starbucks annual reports, 10K; published articles; analyst reports; Coriolis analysis
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Understanding Starbucks
FOOD EXECUTION DIFFICULTIES Starbucks has had execution difficulties with food in the past
Several years ago, Starbucks pastries were often a day old and sandwiches were soggy. More recently, Starbucks has put a similar focus on food that it has on coffee, and it has paid off with a fresher, better, and more varied product From 1996 to 2003, food sales grew more slowly than overall sales. Some of this was by design (Starbucks pulled sandwiches out of many of its stores in 2001-03 because the product was poor), but the other driver was that the food selection did not live up to customers expectations about Starbucks quality. Ashley Reed Woodruff, analyst, Bear Stearns,
March 2006
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Understanding Starbucks
SANDWICH & SALAD IN ROLLOUT After a pull-back and revamp of quality in 2002, the sandwich and salad offer is now in roll-out
Number of Starbucks units with prepared sandwich & salad offer
(actual units; 1999-2005) 3,800
950
37%
2,600
500
30%
2,850 2,100
15%
17% 15%
8%
1,200 525 150 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 700 500
6%
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
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Understanding Starbucks
ANALYSTS POSITIVE ON FOOD OPPORTUNITY Analysts are generally positive on the opportunities in food
Given the companys proven ability to develop innovative beverage offerings and the potential expansion of the breakfast sandwich program currently being tested, we feel there is room to drive average unit volumes higher still.
Glen Petraglia, Citigroup analyst, May 2006
For several years, Starbucks has been rolling out a prepackaged lunch offering in its stores Starbucks believes it can sell lunch in up to 70% of its U.S. company-operated stores eventually Lunch adds approximately 3%, or $30,000 annually, to sales in stores that offer the service. Over time, that percentage should improve. Although the gross margin on lunch is lower than on beverages, the operating margin should be similar, as it requires minimal additional labor costs because the sandwiches arrive at the restaurant already prepared. However, lunch does have a negative impact on margins when it is first rolled out due to higher waste, operational inefficiencies, and slightly higher staffing. Lunch enables the company to better utilize its stores during off-peak hours, as only slightly more than 10% of sales are made between 12:00 p.m. and 2:00 p.m. Ashley Reed Woodruff, analyst, Bear Stearns, March 2006 Offering a more traditional breakfast offering seems logical, thereby reducing the need for the consumer to go to an alternative location for breakfast. This is particularly the case now that the competitors are improving the quality of their coffee offerings. Glen Petraglia, Citigroup analyst, May 2006 Approximately 60% of U.S. locations have cold sandwich lunch offerings, and the company believes that it has the opportunity to increase that number to approximately 70% of the U.S. store base Rollout for the lunch program has taken place over a few years as the company determines the appropriate cost structure, pricing and product mix. They also determine qualified, established suppliers to create a quality product. The new breakfast sandwich warming program is similar in that locations are rolled out on a market-by-market basis to leverage the supply chain and satisfy customer expectations. We expect the rollout of the warming program (which is currently in 580 locations) to continue over the next few years. The company believes that both programs have been incrementally positive additions thus far, adding approximately $60,000 in revenue annually per store for each program addition (each program $30,000). We believe that additional potential exists from the continued breakfast sandwich warming program expansion and this initiative should continue to help grow revenues. Nicole Miller, analyst, Think Equity, July 2006
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Understanding Starbucks
C. MUSIC Starbucks has long sold CDs of the music played in-store; it is attempting to go further into music and entertainment
In addition to providing a selection of compact discs in Company-operated stores, the Company has created new and convenient ways for consumers to discover, experience and acquire all genres of music through Starbucks Hear Music media bars, a service that offers custom CD burning at select Starbucks retail locations in Seattle, Washington and Austin, Texas. Starbucks 10k 2005 Starbucks has done well selling CDs within its stores, but we estimate that CD sales only accounted for approximately 1% of U.S. retail sales in fiscal 2005. We expect Starbucks to continue to develop and market innovative CDs for sale within its stores. In fourth-quarter fiscal 2005 Starbucks added CD racks to most of its U.S. stores so it could sell a broader range of CDs than the handful it sells at the counter. Ashley Reed Woodruff, analyst, Bear
In January 2006, Starbucks announced a partnership with Lions Gate Entertainment to help market and distribute a new film produced by Lions Gate, called Akeelah and the Bee, about an inner-city girl who goes to the national spelling bee. Starbucks will market the movie in its stores, and will sell the soundtrack and DVD when they become available (although neither will be sold exclusively at Starbucks). Starbucks did not participate in the production of the film, so its only costs will relate to in-store marketing of the film and the CD and DVD. This is a low-risk way for Starbucks to be involved in another form of entertainment, and we view its current level of involvement positively. We would view this much less positively if Starbucks were to take its involvement in movies further and begin producing movies. Ashley Reed Woodruff, analyst, Bear Stearns, March 2006 Multiple music and technology based initiatives designed to appeal to new and existing Starbucks customers. Among these initiatives are strategic marketing and co-branding arrangements, such as the 24-hour Starbucks Hear Music digital music channel 75 available to all XM Satellite Radio subscribers. Starbucks Hear Music's innovative partnerships with other music labels for the production, marketing and distribution of both exclusive and non exclusive music, music programming for Starbucks stores worldwide, and CD sales through the Company's website.
Starbucks 10K, 2005
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Understanding Starbucks
D. OTHER Starbucks has launched a number of other new products over the years
Other new products
(1995-2002) Year 1995 1989
Details CDs of the music heard in-store Starbucks published a mail-order catalogue that was distributed six times a year and that offered coffee, candies and pastries, and select coffee-making equipment and accessories. This stylish, innovative machine brews the perfect cup of coffee for customers to savor at home. Vacuum coffee brewing system Stored value card for in-store purchases
2000
2002
Source: various Starbucks annual reports, 10K; published articles; analyst reports; Coriolis analysis
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STARBUCKS CARD GROWING The Starbucks Card represents a growing percent of North American sales
Starbucks Card redemptions as a percent of North American retail sales
(% of retail sales; 2002/Q1-2006/Q1)
15% 14%
12%
7% 6% 6%
7%
3%
2002Q1
2002Q2
2002Q3
2002Q4
2003Q1
2003Q2
2003Q3
2003Q4
2004Q1
2004Q2
2004Q3
2004Q4
2005Q1
2005Q2
2005Q3
2005Q4
2006Q1
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Understanding Starbucks
2. MORE STORES Starbucks second opportunity for growth is building more stores
Starbucks four opportunities for growth
(model)
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Understanding Starbucks
UNITED STATES INCREASING SATURATION Starbucks is approaching market saturation in the United States but management believe it can roughly double in size again before the market is saturated
United States population per Starbucks store
(people; actual; 1993-2005)
1,043,735
625,272
63,629
56,536
48,441
41,095
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
# of stores
Source: US Bureau of Census; various Starbucks reports; CIBC; Coriolis analysis
7,320
Understanding Starbucks
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2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
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INTERNATIONAL GROWTH OF GROWING IMPORTANCE Recently Starbucks management projected a potential for 30,000 stores globally up from 10,241 in FY2005 with much of this growth coming from international markets
Starbucks store numbers: current and management projections
(stores; 2005 v projected)
Current (FY 2005) United States Canada Latin America Asia-Pacific Europe/Middle-East/Africa 7,302 552 140 1,438 809 10,241
Growth Potential +7,698 +448 +1,360 +5,062 +5,191 +19,759 International +12,061
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INTERNATIONAL OPERATIONS Starbucks generally enters markets through a licensed joint-venture with a partner
Starbucks international store operations
(various; 1987-2000) Year Mar 1987 Aug 1996 Dec 1996 1997 Dec 1997 Mar 1998 Jul 1998 Oct 1998 1998 1998 Jan 1999 Dec 1998 Jul 1999 Feb 1999 Nov 1999 Apr 2000 July 2000 Aug 2000 2000 Country Canada Japan Singapore Hawaii Philippines Taiwan Thailand New Zealand United Kingdom South Africa Beijing, China Malaysia South Korea Kuwait Lebanon UAE/Dubai Australia Qatar Hong Kong Licensee or JV Partner Sazaby Inc. Bonvests Holdings Ltd. The MacNaughton Group Rustan Coffee Corp. President Group Coffee Partners Co. Restaurant Brands ? Beijing Mei Da Coffee Co. Berjaya Group Berhad ESCO MH Alshaya Co. MH Alshaya Co. MH Alshaya Co. Starbucks Coffee Australia MH Alshaya Co. Maxims (Dairy Farm Asia) # of stores (FY2005) 552 572 32 51 83 153 63 41 478 ? 62 133 32 10 37 58 8 60 Starbucks Ownership 100% 40% 100% 100% 50% 100% 100% 51% 49.9% 50% 100% 5%
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Comment Organic entry in 1987 50/50 JV; listed in Japan; later sold down share Acquired licensee (had 0%) Acquired licensee (had 5%) No Starbucks ownership Increased shareholding from 5% Acquired licensee (had 0%) No Starbucks ownership Purchased Seattle Coffee Company 2 store SBC Franchise via acquisition; divested Increased shareholding from 5% Increased shareholding from 5% Increased shareholding from 0% No Starbucks ownership No Starbucks ownership No Starbucks ownership Increased shareholding from 90% No Starbucks ownership
Source: various Starbucks reports; various press reports; various analyst reports; Coriolis analysis
Understanding Starbucks
Source: various Starbucks reports; various press reports; various analyst reports; Coriolis analysis
Understanding Starbucks
CHARACTERISTICS OF AN INTERNATIONAL PARTNER Starbucks looks for the following characteristics in an international partner
Starbucks desired characteristics in a international partner
(2006)
Our global success would not be possible without our international partners, who share in our values and commitment to bringing the Starbucks Experience to customers worldwide. How we choose partners is critical to our success: Shared values and corporate culture Strategic fit Seasoned operator of small-box, multi-unit retail Sufficient Financial and Human Resources Involved and committed top management Real Estate Knowledge and Access Local Business Leader Strong track record developing new ventures Experience Managing Licensed & Premium Brands and Concepts Leverageable Infrastructure Food & Beverage Experience
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INTERNATIONAL ACQUISITIONS Strategic acquisitions have been an important growth vehicle for Starbucks in the UK all other acquisitions have been taking a further share in existing licensees
Starbucks international acquisitions
(various; 1998-2006) Date 1998 2000 2000 2002 2002 2003 2003 2003 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 2005 2006 2006 Target Seattle Coffee Company Coffee Partners Co. S. Korea licensee Australian licensee/JV 13 Coffee Republic stores Bon Appetit Group AG Taiwan licensee/JV Spanish licensee/JV Shanghai licensee/JV Singapore licensee Malaysian licensee German licensee Southern China licensee Chile licensee Hawaii licensee Puerto Rico licensee n/a n/a $3.1m n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Price $88.6m Location United Kingdom Thailand South Korea Australia United Kingdom Switzerland & Austria Taiwan Spain Shanghai Singapore Malaysia Germany S. China Chile Hawaii Puerto Rico # of outlets (at time) 56 38 6 30 13 ? ? ? 35 52 44 ? 10 54 13 Description All converted Acquired licensee (had 0%) Bought 50% of licensee Acquired remaining 10% share in Australian JV 13 stores from Coffee Republic Owned 50% of original JV; acquired 100% in 2003; then sold 50% to Marinopoulos (Greek licensee) Increased equity ownership from 5% to 50% Increased equity ownership from 20% to 50% Increased equity ownership from 5% to 50% Acquired licensee (had 0%) Increased equity ownership from 5% to 50% Acquired licensee (had 18%) Increased equity ownership from 5% to 51% Acquired licensee (had 15%) Acquired licensee (had 5%) Acquired licensee (had 5%)
Source: various Starbucks reports; various press reports; various analyst reports; Coriolis analysis
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BUYING OUT LICENSEES Buying out licensees in international Starbucks operations makes financial sense
Increasing ownership of international retail stores. Starbucks has grown its international business rapidly and in a capital-efficient manner through its licensing strategy. As the company matures, it will be able to increase its equity ownership, offering a further growth opportunity. Howard Penney, analyst, Friedman, Billings Ramsey & Co., Feb 2005
Starbucks has the right to buy up to 50% of its international joint ventures at year five and year ten of its agreements,
using a pre-agreed upon valuation formula. As the buy-in multiple is lower than the current level SBUX shares trade at (22.6x trailing EBITDA and 18.4x forward EBITDA) these are accretive acquisitions for Starbucks. We think one of the reasons Starbucks multiple is so high is partially to reflect the potential value of these joint ventures, which Starbucks can buy into. Many of these markets are still in their early stages of growth and not yet profitable, but have the potential to be significantly profitable over time. There are currently approximately 20 markets in which Starbucks owns a less than 20% stake. Ashley Reed Woodruff, analyst, Bear Stearns, March 2006 Internationally, Starbucks is taking a rational approach to its aggressive expansion, seeking partners to develop the business in a region while the company gradually increases its equity ownership stake. Glen Petraglia, Citigroup analyst,
May 2006
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Understanding Starbucks
ASIA-PACIFIC & EUROPE The Asia-Pacific region and Europe have accounted for much of the international unit growth to date
Starbucks store number by region (x North America)
(stores; actual; 1996-2005)
2,387
1,999
1,655
1,438
Asia-Pacific
1,312
1,046
1,234
929
845 602 85 43 258 26 2001 350 32 2002 452 60 2003 114 97 556 668 141
Middle East
525 281 17 13 4
1997 336 13 156 20 2000
Europe
2 1996
131 49 3 66 13
1998
165 2 97 17 1999
95 2004
140 2005
Latin America
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EUROPE & LATIN AMERICA Further expansion in Europe and Latin America stand out as strong opportunities from a raw coffee consumption point-of-view
Coffee consumption (all forms) by geographic region
(% of volume; 2002)
Other Asia-Pacific 13% Middle East & Africa 3% 1% North America 23%
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EUROPE A CHALLENGE THOUGH However, there is a belief that Europeans will not warm to the Starbucks model as well as others
Outside of the United Kingdom, Europe likely will prove to be a more challenging market for Starbucks than either North America or Asia. There is less of an affinity for American brands in Europe than elsewhere, although this generalization may be less true of younger generations. Also, Europe has a long high-quality coffeehouse tradition, particularly in France and Italy However, we do look for the company to enter essentially every European country of note eventually. In the near term, the opportunities appear fairly large; we believe the company has identified its eight initial markets on the Continent. (Scandinavia could be one area of initial focus, particularly given the colder climate.) Bear in mind that smoking is more prevalent in Europe than in the United States. Since Starbucks prides itself on the quality of its coffee, including the aroma, we find it difficult to believe the company would let its beverages be contaminated by second-hand smoke. A smoke-free atmosphere may drive away some European consumers A tidbit of note according to the Puget Sound Business Journal, founder Schultz has already selected the exact street corner on which Starbucks will open its first Italian outlet; this site is called the birthplace of the Starbucks concept. Mark Kalinowski, analyst, Salomon Smith Barney, April 2000 After overcoming some hurdles in the U.K., Starbucks has successfully penetrated younger consumers in the urban centers. The balance of Europe has a long history of coffee consumption. Many independent coffee houses and cafs provide a relaxed atmosphere in which to sip high-grade coffee and espresso and possibly smoke a cigarette. This history with Europeans skepticism of Americas biggest brands previously caused concern about Starbucks acceptance in European markets. However, these worries appear to have been dispelled by Starbucks stores success in Paris, France. The seven stores in Paris have performed well since their opening in FY04. While these stores have drawn American tourists and Europeans that appreciate a non-smoking environment, they have also drawn a wide audience of ordinary Parisians. We expect Starbucks elsewhere in Europe to meet with similar acceptance and success. Howard Penney, analyst, Friedman, Billings Ramsey & Co., Feb 2005 Premium coffee has always been popular in Europe. In several international markets, but particularly Europe, Starbucks did not invent the specialty coffee caf market as it did in the United States. Although specialty coffee did exist in the U.S. before Starbucks, it was not as widely consumed as it has been in Europe for years. This is why we think Asia, and particularly China, represents a greater opportunity for Starbucks long term, because it has been able to introduce the often tea-drinking nations to coffee We think Europe will likely be the companys toughest market for several reasons There are many cafs across Europe, particularly in France and Italy, that already act as the third place (i.e., between home and work) that Starbucks wants to be (in fact, it is in Italy where Howard Schultz got the idea to create what became the Starbucks caf). Ashley Reed Woodruff, analyst, Bear Stearns, March 2006
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3. NEW CONCEPTS Starbucks third opportunity for growth is new store concepts
Starbucks four opportunities for growth
(model)
New concepts
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ONE CONCEPT ACQUISITION/LATER DIVESTED Starbucks has only made one acquisition of another food concept a shareholding in Noahs Bagels which was later sold as well as Hear Music and a failed rush into dot.com madness
Starbucks restaurant & internet concept acquisitions
(various; 1995-2001) Target 1995 24% of Noahs New York Bagels Inc Price $11.3m Location California # of outlets ? Description 25% share in fast growing regional (later national) bagel retailer; had right to purchase 100% share in 2000; instead sold in 1996
1999
Hear Music
$10m
US/Canada
Website plus 4 retail locations + 12 licensed locations in Chapters Bookstores in Canada 7% of online furniture retailer Web-based retailer of cookware 5% of internet-to-door delivery service for food/convenience items Internet chat site provider
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THREE NEW STORE FORMATS Starbucks has developed and tested three new store concepts, none of which have gone beyond testing (at this point)
Starbucks store formats
(1998-2004) Category 1998 Caf Starbucks Units 3+ tested in Seattle Partner European-style caf concept with simple yet delicious menu including wait staff, entrees and alcohol Food offering ranges from meat-loaf to chicken pot pie (European?) tested in three greater Seattle locations Targeted towards younger customers who were not necessarily core Starbucks consumers targeting instead the Greenwich Village crowd and projected to have a higher alcohol component than the Caf Starbucks concept Upscale, hip alternative to a traditional bar; live performance during the weekend a first-of-its-kind music store in Santa Monica, California. The Company has also opened two additional Hear Music Coffeehouses in Miami, Florida and San Antonio, Texas in fiscal 2006.
1998
Circadian Coffee
2004
Source: various Starbucks reports; various press reports; various analyst reports; Coriolis analysis
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CAF TO RESTAURANT Two concepts - Caf Starbucks and Circadia Coffee have attempted to move from a beveragefocused caf into a more traditional restaurant offer
Starbucks runs two concepts that are more similar to traditional restaurants: Caf Starbucks and Circadia Coffee House. At present, there are three and two of each, respectively. (Cafe Starbucks can be found only in Washington state, while the Circadia restaurants are in California.) Both concepts shy away from dinner offerings. Cafe Starbucks concentrates on breakfast, lunch, desserts, and beverages; the menu features coffee-based alcoholic beverages, bottled beers, wine, ice cream, a variety of cakes (e.g., mocha Frappuccino cheesecake), breakfast foods, individual-size pizzas, grilled sandwiches, salads, and specialty sandwiches. Circadia is a more bar-like concept, and fosters an atmosphere of online connectivity and dot com professionalism. Business people can connect to the Internet during the day; one location even features a room that can be rented out for business meetings. The company continues to tinker with both concepts. Ultimately, we believe there may be room for 25-40 Cafe Starbucks throughout the United States. However, we think the company should stay focused on its regular coffeehouses the greater the focus on the proper operation and expansion of the core Starbucks concept, the better, in our opinion. For now, though, Cafe Starbucks and Circadia serve as R&D labs of sorts, allowing the company to test new ideas and initiatives. This can have a beneficial spillover into the Starbucks stores for example, some of the food items developed at Cafe Starbucks have already found their way into Starbucks coffeehouses. Mark
Kalinowski, analyst, Salomon Smith Barney, April 2000
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THE FORMATS Circadia Coffee was an attempt to move into the evening day-part, with more bar characteristics such as alcohol while Hear Music has a music focus
Source: Starbucks
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HEAR MUSIC AS A PLATFORM Starbucks acquired Hear Music as a platform on which to further develop its in-store music offer
In October 1999, Starbucks paid less than $10 million for San Francisco-based Hear Music. By the end of fiscal 2000, Hear Music will be the exclusive music brand on offer at Starbucks retail locations. Although music represents less than 1% of Starbucks sales at present, it is one of the fastest-growing merchandise categories Management views music as a natural extension of the Starbucks experience. We tend to agree, looking at the past popularity of promotions of jazz recordings as a guide (Starbucks first sold CDs in 1995). The advent of listening stations and other new technologies could provide a modest boost to sales. The company operates a website, which can be reached directly from the Starbucks website. Hear Music also has four retail locations in California, one in Chicago, and 12 licensed locations found within Chapters bookstores in Canada. Starbucks had already worked with Chapters (for instore cafes) beginning in 1995. At present, Starbucks management does not rule out the possibility of further retail Hear Music locations, although we would prefer company focus to remain riveted to Starbucks outlets. Mark
Kalinowski, analyst, Salomon Smith Barney, April 2000 HearMusic, a company purchased by Starbucks in 1999, allows customers to create personalized CDs from a library
of songs, maintained in each retail store equipped with the Hear Music gear. We view Hear Music as a brandbuilding investment, rather than a meaningful part of Starbucks growth story. Howard Penney, analyst, Friedman, Billings
Ramsey & Co., Feb 2005
The company has been testing further expansion of Hear Music, called Hear Music Media Bar, in which customers can burn their own customized CD within a traditional Starbucks store, choosing from over 200,000 tracks. The service has been tested in 40 stores in Seattle and Austin for more than a year, but the company has not rolled-out the product further since the initial introduction in these stores. We estimate that the investment cost per store is approximately $20,000, so Starbucks would need to generate approximately $40,000 in sales to justify the expense it targets at least a 2:1 sales-to-investment ratio. If we assume the average CD costs $10 ($7.99 for the first seven songs and $0.99 per song thereafter), this implies that the company needs to sell approximately 11 CDs per store per day to meet its return requirements. We think the average in test stores is five or slightly more currently. We do not believe Starbucks is committed to the Hear Music Media Bar program yet, because we do not believe it has been as successful as hoped for, the capital investment and space requirement is a factor, as well as a consumer shift to other forms of music distribution like MP3 downloads. The company has hinted it may use its nationwide wi-fi hotspot capability in its music initiative, but to our knowledge has not yet tested this. Ashley Reed Woodruff, analyst, Bear Stearns, March 2006
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Understanding Starbucks
HEAR MUSIC OUTLETS Starbucks has also opened three Starbucks Hear Music stores
Starbucks Hear Music announced that its third Starbucks Hear Music Coffeehouse will open to the public today. This innovative retail store blends the classic Starbucks coffeehouse experience with an extensive selection of physical CDs and the next generation of the Hear Music media bars which provide customers with an easy, fun, self-service way to discover and customize music on CDs drawing from more than 1 million digital tracks offering a fully integrated coffee and music experience. The opening of the Starbucks Hear Music Coffeehouse in Miami follows the launch of the Starbucks Hear Music Coffeehouse in San Antonio, which opened in December 2005, and the flagship location in Santa Monica, Calif., which opened in March 2004. Starbucks press release, Feb 2006 In addition to providing a selection of compact discs in Company-operated stores, the Company has created new and convenient ways for consumers to discover, experience and acquire all genres of music through Starbucks Hear Music media bars, a service that offers custom CD burning at select Starbucks retail locations in Seattle, Washington and Austin, Texas, and the Starbucks Hear Music Coffeehouse, a first-of-its-kind music store in Santa Monica, California. The Company has plans to open two additional Hear Music Coffeehouses in Miami, Florida and San Antonio, Texas in fiscal 2006. Starbucks 10k 2005 Recently, Starbucks has significantly increased its commitment to its entertainment initiative, by adding CD racks to its stores, announcing a partnership with Lions Gate Entertainment, and expanding its Hear Music Coffee House initiative. Music has long been a part of the Starbucks coffee house experience and coffee houses in general, as it complements the experience Thus far, in Starbucks CD business and its most recent foray into movies and DVDs, the amount of capital invested has been minimal and the company has maintained a strong focus on return on capital. The Hear Music Media Bars in Seattle and Austin, which did require more capital, have not been expanded farther, because, we believe, the company did not meet its return-on-capital hurdle. As long as it continues to be approached cautiously, we view the entertainment initiative as a cautious positive. Ashley Reed Woodruff, analyst, Bear Stearns, March
2006
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4. NEW CHANNELS Starbucks fourth opportunity for growth is developing new channels
Starbucks four opportunities for growth
(model)
New channels
New concepts
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BRAND EXTENSIONS Starbucks has extended its brands into a number of retail food and beverage categories, primarily through joint-ventures or licensing
Starbucks retail line extensions
(various) Category Beer Beverage Product Redhook Ale Double Black Stout Mazagran Frappuccino Starbucks Double Shot RTD Iced Coffee Ice Cream Roast Coffee Starbucks Discoveries Partner Redhook Brewery Pepsi-Co JV Pepsi-Co JV Pepsi-Co JV Suntory (Japan) Uni-President (Taiwan) Dong Suh (South Korea) Nestle/Dreyers JV Trials on their own Then via licensing of brand to Kraft ? Jim Beam Brands Co. Stout beer containing coffee extract Unique sparkling coffee-based beverage Icy, creamy low fat beverage RTD Coffee drink RTD chilled cup coffee beverage in refrigerated cases of convenience stores Various coffee flavored super-premium ice-creams Retail whole bean and ground coffee
Snacks Alcohol
Nutritional snack bars with a coffee flavor Coffee flavored liqueur range
Source: various Starbucks reports; various press reports; various analyst reports; Coriolis analysis
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