MotoGaze - ICICI February 2013

MotoGaze - February, 2013
February 18, 2013 Sector View

Overweight
Macro headwinds seen easing

Overall industry posts sluggish numbers
Gr. YoY(%) 7.2% 2.9% -1.2% -1.1% -29.5% 10.7% 2.6%
Volume performance
Company Hero Motocorp Bajaj Auto TVS Motors Maruti Suzuki Tata Motors Mahindra and Mahindra Ashok Leyland
Key players & industry volume growth -Oct12(%)

Industry HMCL BAL TVS HMSI Maruti -29.5 Hyundai TML M&M ALL 4.3 2.6 -1.1 -6.0 10.7 9.3 8.8 44.8 -1.2 4.2 4.5 7.2 3.0 2.9 1.1 9.8 5.8 21.6
YoY gr MoM gr
Overall auto sales for January have grown 4.1% YoY at 1.79 million units. The two-wheeler segment has witnessed better growth (7.6% YoY) compared to the rest of the year. Motorcycle volumes in the domestic market have done well in January with ~8.5% YoY growth. Scooter segment growth also picked up with ~12% YoY in domestic markets. Passenger vehicles witnessed de-growth of ~6% YoY dragged by the ~12.5% decline in the passenger car segment. The UV segment (~40% YoY) continued to exhibit handsome growth in a gloomy demand scenario. Demand in the M&HCV segment continued to remain sluggish over the past few months and January was no exception (~40% YoY decline). However, we believe demand in this segment may have finally bottomed out and only short-term pain persists for the segment. With RBIs stance on policy rate softening with declining inflation data, we expect the segment to recover and post higher volumes. The LCV segment has also witnessed a slowdown (~5% YoY growth) in January as slowdown in industrial activity has finally caught up and hike in diesel prices has slowed demand.
Siam revises forecastyet again!!!

In the wake of the sluggish demand scenario for the industry, Siam had cut its forecast for FY13E. This time, Siam has indicated that the passenger car segment will be unable to meet its guidance, which was revised last month to 0-1% and will slip in the negative growth territory for the first time in 10 years. However, we believe with the softening of RBIs stance on policy rate, FY14E will witness a spurt in demand.
20.0
RBI cuts policy rate as inflation eases

Sticky interest rates and high fuel prices had dented demand for the twowheeler and PV segment. However, with inflation rates easing and growth rate on a declining trajectory, the RBI has begun easing interest rates and the outlook on the policy rate has also become dovish. This augurs well for the automobile segment growth. Going ahead, as economic activity improves, the segment may see healthy growth rates again. Newer product launches by OEMs is the only way to ensure volume growth as model fatigue creeps in sooner than was the case in previous years.
Source: Siam
Key players & industry volume growth YTD (%)

Industry -1.5 HMCL -1.8BAL -8.3 TVS HMSI Maruti -5.3TML M&M Hyundai ALL
Source: Siam
3.6
Industry outlook
Our volume growth outlook for the industry is mildly positive with growth ranging at 9-10% for FY14E. Volumes are likely to witness an increase in the passenger car segment as the segment will witness a host of new launches in FY14E. In the two-wheeler segment, we expect a mild slowdown in the scooter segment after the rapid growth witnessed in the past two years. In the three-wheeler space, goods carriers are likely to remain under pressure as the onslaught from LCVs continues, which will continue to drive growth in the CV segment. However, passenger carriers are likely to witness growth as new licenses open up in major Indian cities. On the basis of index performance, the BSE Auto index (one-month return -3.8%) has underperformed the BSE Sensex (one-month return 2.4%) in January. Among our I-direct auto-coverage, we remain bullish on frontline OEM stocks like Tata Motors and Maruti Suzuki. In the ancillary coverage, we find favourable valuation and business growth perspective in Apollo Tyres and Bharat Forge.
35.3 6.0
17.5 3.3 19.1
Analysts name
Nishant Vass nishant.vass@icicisecurities.com Venil Shah venil.shah@icicisecurities.com
ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-micaahd Research ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equityfrom 220.225.146.37
on 2013-03-01 11:02:12 EST. DownloadPDF.
Downloaded by in-micaahd from 220.225.146.37 at 2013-03-01 11:02:12 EST. ISI Emerging Markets. Unauthorized Distribution Prohibited.
News & views

Honda India launched the fourth generation of its popular sports utility vehicle (SUV), CR-V at an introductory price of | 19.95 lakh (ex-showroom, New Delhi). Following this successful launch, Honda has big plans of launching six new products and their variants in the domestic auto market during this year. The new vehicles would also feature diesel engines, which will be the auto makers new move in the country Ford Motors has introduced an all-terrain edition of its flagship SUV, Endeavour, in the domestic auto market with a price tag of | 19.1 lakh (ex-showroom, New Delhi) Tata Motors has introduced its new premium hatchback Indica Vista Quadrajet D90 in the domestic market. The 'D90' suffix stands for the car's ability to produce 90 PS in output power, which is the company's most powerful hatchback in the country till date. At present, the Tata Indica Vista D90 premium hatch competes against the likes of Maruti Suzuki Swift, Fiat Grande Punto, Volkswagen Polo and Hyundai i20 in the domestic auto market. The company has introduced its new Indica Vista D90 with a price tag of | 5.99 lakh for VX trim (ex-showrooms, New Delhi) German carmaker Volkswagen has launched a new variant of its hatchback Polo priced at | 6.27 lakh (ex-showroom New Delhi). With sales of ~30,000 units YTD, it constitutes ~55% of VWs sales volume
ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-micaahd fromEquity Researchon 2013-03-01 11:02:12 EST. DownloadPDF. Retail 220.225.146.37 Downloaded by in-micaahd from 220.225.146.37 at 2013-03-01 11:02:12 EST. ISI Emerging Markets. Unauthorized Distribution Prohibited.
ICICI Securities Ltd. |
Page 2
Two & three wheeler industry

The two-wheeler industry has seen low demand in this fiscal year. However, the segment witnessed some momentum over the past two months. The motorcycle segment has been the most impacted by the demand slowdown and has seen ~1% growth YTD. However, demand has begun to show green shoots of growth with volumes growing ~5% in December and 7% in January. The scooter segment has begun to show signs of slowing down from the rapid pace of growth seen early in the year and grown at ~10% YoY for January. However, as per the reports from the industry body, there is a large inventory pile-up in the channel for leader HMCL. Hence, the wholesale numbers for January may be different from the actual retail volumes for HMCL. Monthly sales for Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) have increased slightly as production cuts undertaken for rebalancing inventory at the dealers end are over. Bajaj Auto (BAL) posted muted growth of 2% YoY as exports picked up in the new calendar year with ~14% growth. A worrying sign was de-growth in domestic sales by 3% YoY. HMSI has continued to outperform the segment with high growth in the motorcycle segment, which grew 55% for January. The scooter segment has, however, witnessed a decline in volumes by ~1% as increased competitive pressure from HMCL and low volumes from the export market hurt volumes. TVS Motors has continued to lose ground in the two wheeler segment, with motorcycle sales declining 2% YoY and the scooter segment declining 8% YoY. The moped segment, on the other hand, witnessed 8% growth. The three-wheeler industry has grown 4.3% YoY driven primarily by passenger carriers (~6% growth) while the goods carrier segment has degrown ~9% in January. The domestic three-wheeler passenger carrier segment has been boosted by fresh license issuances in Maharashtra, Delhi and a few other states. In the near future, we expect domestic threewheeler manufacturers to increasingly target the export market as the domestic market looks sluggish. A major challenge for the three-wheeler passenger segment may emerge from the quadricycle a new market segment for which norms are likely to be finalised in the coming quarter.
Market share movement

According to data released by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (Siam), the domestic market share of two and threewheeler players is as below for January 2013.
Page 3
Hero MotoCorp has been losing market share in the segment in which it is the market leader. However, in the last quarter, HMCL has been able to maintain a decent runrate as the festive season helped generate demand. HMSI continues to outperform the industry rate on the back of high growth in the motorcycle segment
Exhibit 1: Domestic market share movement in two-wheelers

50 45 40 35 30 (%) 25 20 15 10 5 0 Bajaj Auto Hero Motocorp TVS motor HMSI Others 19.4 18.4 18.6 18.6 14.3 12.8 12.8 14.3 6.7 7.5 7.5 45.3 42.6 42.9 Jan-12 Dec-12 Jan-13
18.2
Source: Siam, Data used is YTD
BAL has managed to improve its market share taking away share from Piaggio. Piaggio is losing share in both the passenger and goods carrier segment. Smaller players like Atul Auto have also been steadily improving market share
Exhibit 2: Domestic market share movement in three-wheelers
Others
11.7 11.8 11.1 12.4 12.5 13.4
Jan-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
M&M
Piaggio
33.9 34.5 36.3 42.0 41.3 39.3 0 5 10 15 20 (%) 25 30 35 40 45
Bajaj Auto

Hero MotoCorp continues to be the market leader in the executive and economy segment. High fuel prices and an overall reduction in discretionary spending have started to hit this segment. The market seems to be moving in favour of global OEMs like HMSI, Suzuki and Yamaha that have shifted focus to the economy segment. However, HMCL
(%)
Exhibit 3: Domestic market share movement in motorcycles

60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Bajaj Auto Hero Motocorp TVS motor Honda 6.2 5.5 5.5 7.4 25.7 25.0 24.7 11.4 11.5 55.9 52.9 53.2 Jan-12 Dec-12 Jan-13
has managed to post decent volumes for January
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Page 4
Exhibit 4: Domestic market share movement in scooters/scooterettes

HMSI continues to be the clear leader in the scooter segment. The scooter segment remains one of the fastest growing segments in the entire automobile industry. HMCL has lost some market share in the scooter segment as competitive intensity along with rationalising of growth rates has hit this segment
(%) 35 25 16.3 15 5 -5 Hero Motocorp TVS Motors Honda Others 45 55 Jan-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 46.7 48.8 48.3
18.0 18.4
20.6 15.2 15.1 16.4
18.0 18.2

The executive motorcycle segment continues to be dominated by Hero MotoCorp
Exhibit 5: Market share movement in executive motorcycle segment*

90 80 70 60 (%) 50 40 30 20 10 0 Sep-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Aug-12 Sep-12 Feb-11 Feb-12 Apr-11 Apr-12 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jul-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Jan-11 Jan-12 Dec-11 May-11 May-12 Mar-11 Mar-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Jun-11 Jun-12 22.1 7.3 28.9 29.1 70.6 64.3 64.2
6.8 6.7
Bajaj Auto
Hero Motocorp
TVS
Source: Siam * only top 3 two-wheeler OEMs Note: From Apr12, executive segment includes 125cc sales
Exhibit 6: Market share movement in greater than 125 cc segment

90 80 70 60 (%) 50 40 30 20 10 0 Sep-11 Aug-11 Aug-12 Sep-12 Feb-11 Feb-12 Apr-11 Apr-12 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jul-12 Nov-11 Oct-12 Nov-12 Jan-11 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Dec-12 May-11 May-12 Mar-11 Mar-12 Jan-13 13.2 9.4 18.1 20.0 9.0 11.8 77.4
72.9
68.2
Bajaj Auto (LHS)
Hero Motocorp (RHS)
TVS
Source: Siam *only top three vehicle two-wheeler OEMs
Page 5
Hero Honda Motors: sales volumes

552 534 529 542 520 523 528 484 502 558 600 500 400 (000's) 300 200 100 0 Feb'12 Apr'12 Sep'12 Aug'12 Dec'12 Jan'12 Jul'12 May'12 Mar'12 Nov'12 Jan'13 Jun'12 Oct'12 557
Hero MotoCorp (HERHON)

Hero MotoCorp (HMCL), the market leader in the two-wheeler segment, has registered MoM increase of ~3% in January. This is also ~7% increase YoY. HMCL has been able to maintain its monthly run rate as the scooter segment has grown rapidly, much higher than the segment growth, albeit on a lower base. The company registered monthly volume of 557,797 units, its highest ever monthly sales volumes The motorcycle segment has grown 5% for HMCL aided by improvement in volumes coming from Glamour and Ignitor The executive segment (125-150 cc) has continued to remain under pressure and declined ~6% YoY in the absence of new launches and high fuel prices The scooter segment for HMCL has generated high growth in volumes at ~54,979 units, a rise of ~32% YoY. The demand for HMCL scooters is likely to remain in an uptrend as the segment continues to remain one of the fastest growing
Jan-13 502,818 54,979 557,797 9,956 1.8 Jan-12 %chg 478,675 5.0 41,597 32.2 520,272 7.2 13,846 -28.1 2.7 %chg Dec-12 484,042 3.9 57,573 -4.5 541,615 3.0 14,240 -30.1 2.6 YTD13 4,643,476 462,553 5,106,029 131,815 2.6 YTD12 %chg 4,814,753 -3.6 369,398 25.2 5,184,151 -1.5 141,398 -6.8 2.7 -
444
405
Source: Siam, ICICIdirect.com Research

70.0 55.0 Jan'13 60.0 46.5 44.7 45.3 41.6 42.2 (000's) 41.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Feb'12 Apr'12 Aug'12 Sep'12 Jan'12 Mar'12 May'12 Nov'12 Dec'12 Jul'12 Jun'12 Oct'12 44.0 56.3 57.6
46.1
Exhibit 7: Volume performance (in units)

Segment Motorcycles Scooters Total Sales Exports(inc. above) Exports (% of sales)
33.6
36.4
Source: Company, Siam
Bajaj Auto: Two-wheeler sales volumes

400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 342 361 322 318 309 302 304 315 327 301 294 298 301
Bajaj Auto (BAAUTO)

Bajaj Auto witnessed ~3% YoY growth in overall volumes with the two-wheeler segment growing 2.4% YoY and the three-wheeler segment growing 6.5% YoY Motorcycle volumes were at 301,361 units in the motorcycle segment for January aided by handsome ~14% growth in the export markets. However, domestic sales at 1,96,023 units recorded a decline of ~3% YoY In the three-wheeler segment, Bajaj Auto has witnessed growth of 6.5% YoY at 46,263 units. Growth is expected to come from both the domestic passenger carrier as new license roll-out increases. We expect norms for the quadricycle to be finalised in the coming months. This can boost the volumes of BAL, as it has a ready product to cater to the segment Exports at 126,016 units (up ~5% YoY) have seen a recovery with 2% MoM growth and ~10% YoY increase coming primarily from the two-wheeler segment
Jan-13 301,361 46,263 347,624 128,482 37.0 Jan-12 294,439 43,436 337,875 116,996 34.6 %chg 2.4 6.5 2.9 9.8 Dec-12 298,350 45,596 343,946 126,016 36.6 %chg YTD13 YTD12 1.0 3,198,421 3,231,541 1.5 404,773 438,672 1.1 3,603,194 3,670,213 2.0 1,310,634 1,349,406 36.8 34.2 %chg -1.0 -7.7 -1.8 -2.9 -
(000's)
Mar'12 Jul'12 Aug'12 Dec'12 May'12 Nov'12 Jan'12 Sep'12 Jan'12 Jun'12 Feb'12 Apr'12 Oct'12
Source: SIAM, ICICIdirect.com Research
Bajaj Auto: Three-wheeler sales volumes

54 44.8 43.4 41.8 49 (000's) 44 39 34 29 24 Feb'12 Apr'12 Sep'12 May'12 Aug'12 Dec'12 Jan'12 Jun'12 Jul'12 Mar'12 Nov'12 Jan'12 Oct'12 40.6 50.3 45.6 45.6 46.3

Segment Motorcycles 3-wheelers Total 2&3 wheelers Exports(incl. in above) Exports as % of sales
39.3
34.7
30.3
26.8
35.3

Page 6
TVS Motors : Scooter sales volumes

50 40 (000's) 30 20 10 0 Feb'12 Sep'12 Apr'12 Aug'12 Dec'12 Jul'12 May'12 Mar'12 Nov'12 Jan'13 Jun'12 Jan'12 Oct'12 41 39 39 38 41 38 40 36 44 37 30 38
TVS Motors (TVSSUZ)

Overall two-wheeler sales clocked 171,513 units, a decline of ~1% YoY and ~10% MoM increase. Motorcycle volumes at 64,555 units, were up ~8% MoM but down ~2% in YoY terms. Its domestic market share till December YTD is a meagre 5.5% in the motorcycle segment. TVS Motors has launched a new model Phoenix in the 125 cc segment. This is aiding in generate incremental volumes in this segment for TVS The overall scooter segment is witnessing a mild slowdown and TVS saw sales declining 8.5% YoY (37,946 units). However, on an MoM basis, this was a handsome increase of ~25%. The moped segment, at 69,012 units, has shown an increase of ~4% YoY. The segment in which TVS is the lone player continues to witness muted growth Export markets were better this month with ~11% YoY and ~2% MoM growth, clocking 20,723 units. The contribution of exports to total volumes has declined to 11.8% YTD from 13.6% YTD last year
Jan-13 64,555 37,946 69,012 171,513 20,723 12.1 Jan-12 65,608 41,469 66,437 173,514 18,610 10.7 %chg -1.6 -8.5 3.9 -1.2 11.4 Dec-12 60,210 30,398 65,613 156,221 20,251 13.0 %chg YTD13 7.2 627,180 24.8 381,762 5.2 656,013 9.8 1,678,726 2.3 198,488 11.8 YTD12 %chg 714,325 -12.2 453,004 -15.7 659,457 -0.5 1,830,498 -8.3 249,600 -20.5 13.6
37
TVS Motors: Motorcycles & mopeds volumes

141 136 134 139 132 132 129 127 125 126 150 120 (000's) 90 60 30 0 Feb'12 Apr'12 Aug'12 Sep'12 Dec'12 Jul'12 May'12 Mar'12 Nov'12 Jan'13 Jun'12 Jan'12 Oct'12 134
117
116

Segment Motorcycles Scooters Mopeds Total Sales Exports(incl. in above) Exports as % of sales
Source: Company, Siam The numbers of three-wheelers are not included in total volumes
Page 7
Exhibit 10: Volume trends in executive segment

200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
(000's)
Bajaj Auto (LHS)
Hero Motocorp (RHS)
Source: Siam volumes have been calculated with April 2009 as base with 100 Note: From April 2012, the executive segment includes 125 cc sales
Exhibit 11: Volume trends in premium segment

430 380 330 (000's) (000's) 280 230 180 130 80 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Bajaj Auto (LHS) Hero Motocorp (RHS) 230 180 130 80 280
Source: Siam volumes have been rebased with April 2009 as base as base with 100 Note: From April 2012, premium segment excludes 125 cc sales
Page 8
(000's)
Four-wheeler industry
The passenger vehicles segment at 284,982 units has witnessed degrowth of ~6% YoY, as the passenger car segment de-grew ~13% YoY in January despite the new calendar year purchases. Exports have declined ~14% YoY and the domestic market saw 12.5% de-growth Siam has, in the wake of the sluggish demand scenario for the passenger car segment, cut its forecast for FY13E. Siam has indicated that the passenger car segment will slip in the negative growth territory for the first time in 10 years. However, we believe with the softening of RBIs stance on policy rate, FY14E will witness a spurt in demand. Going forward, OEMs will also aid in generating incremental volumes. The new Alto 800 launched by Maruti has done well and so has M&Ms Quanto. The utility vehicle segment has been growing very fast (~56% YTD) and has been contributing significantly to the passenger vehicle segment (~17%). The segment is now witnessing interest from all major OEM players and, hence, competitive intensity is set to increase in this space. Commercial vehicles continued to remain under pressure as a result of the decline in industrial activity. The segment was down ~15% for January. The M&HCV segment continued to reel under pressure and de-grew ~40% YoY. The LCV segment has managed to remain in the green after slipping in the negative growth territory last month and saw ~5% YoY growth compared with the 13.3% YTD growth rate.
Exhibit 12: Top 20 Models
Current Position 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Model Maruti Alto Maruti Swift Maruti DZire Maruti Wagon R Mahindra Bolero Hyundai i10 Hyundai Eon Hyundai i20 Maruti Ertiga Tata Indica/Vista Maruti Ritz Maruti Omni Renault Duster Ford Figo Toyota Innova Mahindra Scorpio Mahindra XUV500 Hyundai Verna Hyundai Santro Tata Nano Volume 28,685 18,928 17,060 14,981 10,659 8,655 8,552 8,261 7,321 6,063 5,983 5,385 5,240 5,066 4,579 4,462 3,944 3,721 3,554 3,048 Market Share 12.5% 8.2% 7.4% 6.5% 4.6% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6% 3.2% 2.6% 2.6% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.0% 1.9% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 1.3% Jan'13 1 2 3 14 4 10 6 5 8 7 9 11 12 23 27 19 15 16 13 18 2012 1 2 3 4 5 9 6 8 7 12 16 11 13 17 24 19 14 22 32 20
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Page 9
Market share movement

According to Siam, the domestic market share for passenger vehicles (PV) and commercial vehicles (CV) in January 2013 has been as follows:
The market share for Maruti has begun to improve after the plant lockout situation came to an end. We feel Maruti will approach its long-term share of 40% in the market with addition of new diesel capacity
Others GM M&M Tata motors Hyundai Maruti 0 5 10 15 (%) 20 25 30 35 3.3 3.3 4.4 9.6 11.6 11.6 12.4 12.7 13.9 14.3 14.4 15.2 38.4 37.9 38.1 40 45
Exhibit 13: Domestic market share movement in passenger vehicles

20.0 20.1 18.8 Jan-12 Dec-12 Jan-13
Exhibit 14: Market share movement in A2 segment

The A2 segment is the bread and butter category of the passenger car segment. The segment had seen a drop in volumes owing to a lack of options among diesel variants. As OEMs focus on bringing diesel variants in this segment, volumes are expected to pick up
70 60 50 (%) 40 30 20 10 0 Sep-11 Aug-11 Aug-12 Sep-12 Feb-11 Feb-12 Apr-11 Apr-12 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jul-12 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 May-11 May-12 Mar-11 Mar-12 Jan-13 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jan-11 23.3 47.6 35.133.9 57.058.6
Hyundai
Maruti
Source: Siam, Top two PV OEMs considered
Page 10
Despite a slowdown in the M&HCV segment, LCVs continued to witness a high growth rate. ALL and M&M have gained and maintained market share, respectively, on the back of their LCV offerings
Exhibit 15: Domestic market share movement in commercial vehicle

70 60 50 40 30 20 10.4 10 0 ALL M&M Tata Motors Others 17.9 19.5 19.5 12.7 13.0 13.3 Jan-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 58.5 56.6 56.3
(%)
11.2 11.2
Source: Siam Data used is YTD
The LCV segment has put up a stellar performance in the past few months and gained in terms of share in the CV segment. The LCV: MHCV ratio is fast approaching the 70:30 ratio that is the norm in most countries
Exhibit 16: Segmental share in CVs

80 70 60 50 (%) 40 30 20 10 0 Sep-11 Sep-12 Feb-11 Feb-12 Apr-11 Apr-12 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jul-12 Aug-11 Aug-12 Dec-11 Oct-12 Dec-12
Oct-12
70.1 70.1 57.3 40.6 29.929.9
Jun-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
Nov-11
May-11
M&HCV
LCV
Source: Siam
Exhibit 17: Auto raw material index

The in-house raw material index reflects the combination of various input materials (steel, rubber, aluminium, plastics) for OEMs, which have February 2009 as base year at 100. The chart shows a declining trend in raw material prices, which is a positive for the industry. The impact in rupee terms would kick in once the INR appreciates against the US$
240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 Feb-09 Apr-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Feb-12 Aug-09 Jun-09 Dec-09 Aug-10 Jun-10 Dec-10 Aug-11 Jun-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Aug-12 Jun-12 Dec-12
Source: Bloomberg,Reuters,Company,ICICIdirect.com Research
May-12
Mar-11
Mar-12
Page 11
Nov-12
Jan-13
Maruti Suzuki India: sales volumes

130 115 119 110 Volume (000's) 90 70 50 30 10 Feb'12 Apr'12 Sep'12 Aug'12 Dec'12 Jan'12 Jul'12 May'12 Mar'12 Nov'12 Jan'13 Jun'12 Oct'12 -10 126 100 99 97 82 54 94 103 103 95 114
Maruti Suzuki India (MARUTI)

Maruti Suzuki reported 1.1% YoY de-growth in January even as export markets saw a significant decline of 22% YoY. The domestic markets were subdued even in the wake of new calendar year purchases. With the new Alto launch, Maruti has been able to generate volume growth even as the overall passenger car segment is witnessing severe pressure. Ertiga continues to manage a healthy run rate and remains one of Marutis top performers Domestic sales at 103,026 units have grown at 2% YoY even as the industrys domestic car segment has de-grown 12% YoY The bread and butter segment - A2 (Alto, Swift, Wagon-R, Zen, Astar and Ritz) reported 69,285 units, a sharp 28% MoM improvement. On a YoY basis, this represents ~8% volume degrowth. The C segment (Omni, Versa and Eeco) at 8,374 units was down ~33% on a YoY basis. The entry of M&Ms Maxximo Minivan in the diesel variant is likely to further erode market share of the Eeco and Omni in the van/SCV segment Exports decreased ~22% YoY to clock 11,179 units as all segments except the Dzire saw a decline in volumes
Maruti Suzuki India: Export performance

15 14.4 13.2 11.3 13 11 (000's) 9 7 5 3 100 80 13.1 13.1 60 12.3 11.2 11.2 40 10.2 20 9.4 0 -20 7.1 -40 5.2 -60 4.0 -80 -100
YoY growth (%)

Segment M800* Omni, Eeco,Versa Alto, Wagon-R, Zen, Swift,Ritz SX4, Swift Dzire Kizashi Total Passengers Gypsy, Vitara,Ertiga Total Domestic Exports Total Sales Exports as % of sales Jan-13 1,200 8,374 69,285 18,072 0 96,931 6,095 103,026 11,179 114,205 9.8 Jan-12 2,114 12,439 75,678 10,576 9 100,816 231 101,047 14,386 115,433 12.5 %chg -43.2 -32.7 -8.4 70.9 -100.0 -3.9 2538.5 2.0 -22.3 -1.1 Dec-12 1,200 7,897 %chg 0.0 6.0 YTD13 12,790 92,878 535,834 136,766 174 778,442 66,747 845,189 96,729 941,918 10.3 YTD12 17,067 118,320 %chg -25.1 -21.5
Jan'12 Feb'12 Mar'12 Apr'12 May'12 Jun'12 Jul'12 Aug'12 Sep'12 Oct'12 Nov'12 Dec'12 Jan'13
54,079 28.1 13,405 34.8 45 -100.0 76,626 26.5 5,447 11.9 82,073 25.5 13,072 -14.5 95,145 20.0 13.7
552,334 -3.0 93,057 47.0 396 -56.1 781,174 -0.3 4,765 1300.8 785,939 7.5 102,855 -6.0 888,794 6.0 11.6
Source: Company, Siam. * estimates
Page 12
Tata Motors: CVs sales volume

(000's) 56.6 62.4
Tata Motors (TELCO)
53.3
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Tata Motors saw a decline of ~30% YoY in its overall volumes. The passenger vehicle segment, at 15,708 units, showed a decline of ~55% YoY as demand for the Indica and Indigo declined substantially with sluggish overall demand and availability of newer models from competitors available at discount. Tata Motors had also announced a cut in price of the Indica in order to boost sales. The utility vehicle (UV) numbers at 4,100 units de-grew ~34% YoY despite the launch of the Safari Storme. Passenger cars posted a decline of ~60% YoY as high fuel prices combined with old product portfolio led to a stagnation in volumes. Sales of the Nano have declined to ~1500 units, an 80% YoY decline At a segmental level, in standalone operations, CV demand has declined ~12% YoY and ~10% MoM. CV sales at 45,952 units have managed to show a slightly lower volume de-growth due to a good show by the LCV segment (36,583 units), which has grown ~15% YoY even as the overall LCV segment has grown only 5%. M&HCV sales continued the rather poor performance and dropped ~54% YoY largely owing to the poor demand scenario JLR has posted highest ever volumes at 38,173 units for January. Jaguar Land Rover has been aggressively pursuing product development and the next few months will witness more product launches. The Chinese market has grown ~64% YTD for JLR and has now become the largest market in volume terms. We expect sales to improve in H2 on the back of newer global launches of Jaguar and the new Range Rover and also aggressive expansion of distribution points in China Exports at 3,880 units have not been performing well since the last quarter and posted a decline of ~45% YoY in January
52.1
48.7
50.4
46.4
48.1
50.9
43.4
36.9
42.4
Aug'12
Nov'12
Dec'12
Apr'12
Jul'12
Oct'12
Mar'12
May'12
Sep'12
Jan'12
Jun'12
Jan'13
Feb'12
46.0
Tata Motors: Tata Motors: PVs sales volume

45 40
35.4
(000's)
38.0
35.5
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Feb'12 Apr'12 Sep'12 Jan'12 Mar'12 Oct'12 Jul'12 Nov'12 Jun'12 Aug'12 Dec'12 May'12 Jan'12
23.2 21.0 17.9 26.8 23.1 22.4 21.4 18.4 14.6 15.7
Jaguar Land Rover sales volume

100 50 45 38.2 80 36.5 (% share of total volumes) 34.5 40 35 30 25 20 20 15 0 Feb'12 Apr'12 Sep'12 Jan'12 Mar'12 Nov'12 Aug'12 Dec'12 Jun'12 May'12 Jan'13 Jul'12 Oct'12 10 (000's)

Segment M & HCV LCV Utility vehicles Passenger Cars Total sales Exports Exports as % of sales Jan-13 9,369 36,583 4,100 11,608 61,660 3,880 6.3 Jan-12 20,193 31,883 6,182 29,209 87,467 7,083 8.1 %chg -53.6 14.7 -33.7 -60.3 -29.5 -45.2 Dec-12 10,641 40,298 3,008 11,635 65,582 3,882 5.9 %chg -12.0 -9.2 36.3 -0.2 -6.0 -0.1 YTD13 124,848 341,611 41,813 162,832 676,044 43,951 6.5 YTD12 %chg 177,623 288,512 42,557 205,357 714,049 52,108 7.3 -29.7 18.4 -1.7 -20.7 -5.3 -15.7
29.3
30.1
60
32.3
28.2
26.9
25.1
24.1
26.5
27.9
32.3
40
Jaguar JLR total volumes(RHS)
Land Rover
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research:
Page 13
Mahindra and Mahindra: Sales volume

53.4
Mahindra and Mahindra (MAHMAH)
48.1 45.3 49.5
55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15
Mahindra and Mahindra (M&M) has outperformed the passenger vehicle segment on the back of its strong UV portfolio. The utility vehicle segment, inclusive of four-wheeler pick-ups, grew to 39,506 units, a ~23% YoY jump and ~12% sequential growth. It enjoys a domestic market share of ~48% in the UV segment, which has reduced from the highs of 56% in 2012 owing to an increase in the competitive intensity in this segment. With the launch of the Quanto and the high-end Rexton, M&M looks set to ride the growing demand for utility vehicles in India The new-look Verito has witnessed a continuous reduction in volumes to ~1,500 units from the highs of ~2,000 units in August. However, this represents an improvement over last month, which saw a volume of only 1,026 units Automotive exports at 345 units have seen ~90% YoY slump The farm equipment segment (FES) at 19,362 units saw a flat YoY growth in January, which was a 31% MoM increase. Domestic volumes declined ~3% YoY but increased ~30% sequentially at 17,473 units. Exports have improved by ~34% YoY owing to the low base of last year. Lowering of interest rates can be a positive trigger for this segment and would help in improving the offtake in the agri-related segment
47.0
47.1 41.3
44.7
43.1
(000's)
40.7
44.0
45.8
48.3
Jul'12
Aug'12
Mar'12
May'12
Nov'12
Dec'12
Jan'12
Sep'12
Jan'13
Jun'12
Feb'12
Apr'12
Oct'12
Mahindra and Mahindra: Tractor sales

30 19.4 19.0 17.4 25 (000's) 20 15 10 5 0 Feb'12 Apr'12 Sep'12 Aug'12 Dec'12 Jan'12 Jun'12 Mar'12 May'12 Nov'12 Jan'13 Jul'12 Oct'12 16.8 15.3 29.6 35 23.8
20.5 14.8
16.5
13.2
18.9
19.4

Segment UVs (inclusive of pick ups) CVs Verito Total 4wheeler 3wheeler (Champion, Alfa) Total Domestic Exports Total Sales Exports as % of sales Tractors - Domestic - Exports Total Tractors Exports as % of tractor sales Jan-13 39,506 1,024 1,500 42,030 5,811 47,841 345 49,503 3.4 17,473 1,889 19,362 9.8 Jan-12 32,171 1,543 1,529 35,243 6,126 41,369 3,349 44,718 7.5 17,950 1,404 19,354 7.3 %chg 22.8 -33.6 -1.9 19.3 -5.1 15.6 -89.7 10.7 -2.7 34.5 0.0 Dec-12 35,441 631 1,026 37,098 5,209 42,307 2,990 45,297 6.6 13,712 1,047 14,759 7.1 %chg 11.5 62.3 46.2 13.3 11.6 13.1 -88.5 9.3 27.4 80.4 31.2 YTD13 358,666 9,559 13,101 381,326 55,950 437,276 26,352 463,628 5.7 181,995 10,408 192,403 5.4 YTD12 %chg 287,674 24.7 11,049 -13.5 14,594 -10.2 313,317 21.7 57,240 -2.3 370,557 18.0 23,892 10.3 394,449 17.5 6.1 191,617 -5.0 11,037 -5.7 202,654 -5.1 5.4
Page 14
Ashok Leyland: Total sales

14.3
16 14
Ashok Leyland (ASHLEY)
10.6
10.3
10.2
12
8.7
8.6
8.0
10 8 6 4 2 0
Ashok Leyland (ALL) has managed to post ~2.5% growth rate in the CV space on the back of handsome growth in the LCV segment. Dost at ~3,700 units accounted for ~35% of the total ALL volumes for January. The M&HCV space has declined ~25% YoY, which is slightly better than the decline in demand in the segment for January The Ashok Leyland-Nissan partnership has decided to ramp up production of Dost looking at its huge demand and make it available pan-India in the coming months. Dost enjoys ~30% share in the 11 states where it is sold right now Exports have seen a decline of ~37% YoY in January 2013 with sales clocking just 719 units. The export contribution to total sales has been progressively reducing in the last few months. The trend continued in this month as well with exports contributing merely 6.8%, down from 11.2% in January last year. Exports are likely to witness an increase following the healthy order book for passenger carriers in export markets like Africa and East Asia and launch of the new Janbus and trucks developed on the new Neptune platform
11.1
9.8
(000's)
9.4
7.7
7.3
10.6
Feb'12
Sep'12
Apr'12
Aug'12
Dec'12
Jul'12
May'12
Mar'12
Nov'12
Jan'12
Jun'12
Jan'12
Oct'12

Segment M&HCV Passenger M&HCV Goods LCV Total Sales Exports Exports as % of sales Jan-13 1,662 5,205 3,698 10,565 719 6.8 Jan-12 2,567 6,561 1,172 10,300 1,149 11.2 %chg -35.3 -20.7 215.5 2.6 -37.4 Dec-12 1,644 3,586 2,064 7,294 575 7.9 %chg 1.1 45.1 79.2 44.8 25.0 YTD13 18,253 44,062 28,689 91,004 7,506 8.2 YTD12 19,645 52,238 4,537 76,420 9,935 13.0 %chg -7.1 -15.7 532.3 19.1 -24.4
Page 15
ICICIdirect.com Research Universe (Auto & Auto ancillary)

Sector / Company Amara Raja (AMARAJ) Apollo Tyre (APOTYR) Ashok Leyland (ASHLEY) Automotive Axle (AUTAXL)* Bajaj Auto (BAAUTO) Balkrishna Ind. (BALIND) Bharat Forge (BHAFOR) Eicher Motors (EICMOT)` Escorts (ESCORT)* Exide Industries (EXIIND) Hero Mototcorp (HERHON) JK Tyre & Ind (JKIND) M&M (MAHMAH) Maruti Suzuki (MARUTI) Motherson (MOTSUM) Subros (SUBROS) Tata Motors (TELCO) CMP (|) 296 85 23 324 2,007 278 218 2,686 64 129 1,661 111 904 1,497 201 27 298 TP(|) Rating 357 Buy 112 Buy 30 Buy 400 Buy 1,915 Hold 356 Buy 259 Buy 3,065 Hold 59 Hold 135 Hold 1,799 Hold 180 Buy 980 Hold 1,784 Buy 212 Hold 35 Buy 360 Buy EPS (|) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) M Cap (| Cr) FY13E FY14E FY15E FY13E FY14E FY15E FY13E FY14E FY15E 5,052 18.0 21.7 25.5 16.4 13.6 11.6 10.7 8.3 7.0 4,292 12.4 13.5 16.0 6.9 6.3 5.3 4.7 3.3 2.8 6,054 1.4 2.7 3.3 16.6 8.6 6.8 11.1 7.0 3.2 490 29.8 43.0 53.4 12.2 8.5 6.8 6.0 4.5 3.6 58,077 106.5 123.4 136.8 18.8 16.3 14.7 15.9 15.2 12.7 2,685 35.8 41.0 41.0 7.8 6.8 6.8 6.4 5.6 4.7 5,084 17.7 12.9 16.9 12.3 16.9 12.9 6.9 7.4 6.0 7,250 120.1 156.9 226.0 22.4 17.1 11.9 16.7 12.1 5.1 761 5.8 10.5 14.6 11.9 6.7 4.8 6.4 4.3 3.4 10,931 5.4 6.0 8.6 23.7 21.6 15.0 13.0 11.3 7.8 33,170 96.6 107.8 149.9 17.2 15.4 11.1 10.0 11.6 9.6 455 2.7 33.8 44.9 41.3 3.3 2.5 7.8 5.3 4.3 53,250 50.7 61.6 72.5 17.8 14.7 12.5 11.0 8.8 7.1 43,265 68.3 103.5 132.1 21.9 14.5 11.3 11.9 8.0 5.9 11,666 7.4 15.0 15.4 27.3 13.3 13.1 8.9 6.3 4.9 162 8.1 3.0 8.6 3.3 9.1 3.1 5.1 4.1 3.4 88,547 28.0 42.5 55.1 10.6 7.0 5.4 4.5 3.7 3.1 RoCE (%) RoE (%) FY13E FY14E FY15E FY13E FY14E FY15E 38.4 38.6 36.8 29.3 27.8 26.1 18.0 16.0 16.3 18.3 14.5 14.8 6.9 12.8 14.2 8.7 15.9 16.6 22.6 26.7 28.3 16.6 20.4 21.1 58.2 48.3 41.1 40.5 37.6 33.6 15.6 15.6 16.6 24.6 15.6 15.6 13.4 10.1 13.2 18.9 12.4 14.5 16.6 18.4 21.7 18.5 20.0 22.9 6.5 9.3 10.9 4.3 7.4 9.5 19.1 19.4 24.0 15.1 14.8 18.3 38.0 40.6 44.9 37.3 34.3 37.0 7.3 12.3 13.9 1.6 17.4 19.0 21.9 22.7 23.0 22.7 22.7 21.9 10.9 16.4 18.9 11.7 15.3 16.5 13.1 20.2 21.0 20.6 31.5 25.5 7.2 7.7 12.0 17.9 6.3 15.9 22.2 23.8 24.9 22.7 27.2 27.2
Source: ICICIdirect.com Research *Year ending September
Page 16
ICICIdirect.com Universe price movement vis--vis BSE Auto index Exhibit 22: OEM comparison with BSE Auto
The chart compares the movement of OEM stocks in the ICICIdirect.com Universe with the BSE Auto index, thereby reflecting the degree of mimicking of the index Since May 2011, Eicher Motors, Tata Motors and Hero MotoCorp have outperformed the BSE Auto index while Escorts has underperformed on the index by being divergent on the upside and downside, respectively
Hero MotoCorp BSE Auto
Jan-12
Mar-12 May-12 BSE Auto Tata Motors Hero MotoCorp
Jul-12 Sep-12 Bajaj M&M Ashok Leyland
Nov-12
Jan-13 Maruti Escorts Eicher Motors
Source:ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 23: Ancillaries comparison with BSE Auto

The chart compares the movement of auto ancillary stocks in the ICICIdirect.com universe with the BSE Auto index The volatile nature of smaller ancillary companies is reflected. These have met with numerous fluctuations with the exception of larger market capitalisation companies like Bharat Forge and Exide Industries, which mimic the index greatly. The tyre companies post July 2011 have grossly outperformed due to the reduction in rubber prices. Amara Raja Batteries has significantly outperformed the auto ancillary universe
Jan-12 Mar-12 BSE Auto Apollo Tyres May-12 Auto Axl Subros Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Balkrishna Exide Inds Jan-13 JK Tyres Amara raja Bharat BSE Auto Amara Raja
Bharat Forge Motherson
Source: ICICIdirect.com Research
Page 17
RATING RATIONALE
ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock. Sector view: Over weight compared to index Equal weight compared to index Under weight compared to index Index here refers to BSE 500
Pankaj Pandey
Head Research ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai 400 093 research@icicidirect.com
pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I, Nishant Vass MBA (FINANCE) Venil Shah MBA research analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about any and all of the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Analysts aren't registered as research analysts by FINRA and might not be an associated person of the ICICI Securities Inc.
Disclosures:
ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) and its affiliates are a full-service, integrated investment banking, investment management and brokerage and financing group. We along with affiliates are leading underwriter of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our affiliates have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. Our research professionals provide important input into our investment banking and other business selection processes. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their dependent family members from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on reasonable basis, ICICI Securities, its subsidiaries and associated companies, their directors and employees (ICICI Securities and affiliates) are under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities is acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances. This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and may not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return of investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities and affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. ICICI Securities and its affiliates might have managed or co-managed a public offering for the subject company in the preceding twelve months. ICICI Securities and affiliates might have received compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction. It is confirmed that Nishant Vass MBA (FINANCE) Venil Shah MBA research analysts and the authors of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. Our research professionals are paid in part based on the profitability of ICICI Securities, which include earnings from Investment Banking and other business. ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. It is confirmed that Nishant Vass MBA (FINANCE) Venil Shah MBA research analysts and the authors of this report or any of their family members does not serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of the companies mentioned in the report. ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. ICICI Securities and affiliates may act upon or make use of information contained in the report prior to the publication thereof. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-micaahd fromEquity Researchon 2013-03-01 11:02:12 EST. DownloadPDF. Retail 220.225.146.37 Downloaded by in-micaahd from 220.225.146.37 at 2013-03-01 11:02:12 EST. ISI Emerging Markets. Unauthorized Distribution Prohibited.
Page 18

MotoGaze - ICICI February 2013

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

MotoGaze - ICICI February 2013

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Description:

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

MotoGaze - ICICI February 2013

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

MotoGaze - February, 2013

February 18, 2013 Sector View

Macro headwinds seen easing

Key players & industry volume growth -Oct12(%)

Siam revises forecastyet again!!!

RBI cuts policy rate as inflation eases

Key players & industry volume growth YTD (%)

17.5 3.3 19.1

ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-micaahd Research ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equityfrom 220.225.146.37

on 2013-03-01 11:02:12 EST. DownloadPDF.

News & views

ICICI Securities Ltd. |

Two & three wheeler industry

Market share movement

ICICI Securities Ltd. |

Exhibit 1: Domestic market share movement in two-wheelers

Source: Siam, Data used is YTD

Exhibit 2: Domestic market share movement in three-wheelers

11.7 11.8 11.1 12.4 12.5 13.4

33.9 34.5 36.3 42.0 41.3 39.3 0 5 10 15 20 (%) 25 30 35 40 45

Source: Siam, Data used is YTD

Exhibit 3: Domestic market share movement in motorcycles

has managed to post decent volumes for January

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd. |

Exhibit 4: Domestic market share movement in scooters/scooterettes

20.6 15.2 15.1 16.4

Source: Siam, Data used is YTD

Exhibit 5: Market share movement in executive motorcycle segment*

Exhibit 6: Market share movement in greater than 125 cc segment

Bajaj Auto (LHS)

Hero Motocorp (RHS)

Source: Siam *only top three vehicle two-wheeler OEMs

ICICI Securities Ltd. |

Hero Honda Motors: sales volumes

Hero MotoCorp (HERHON)

Source: Siam, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 7: Volume performance (in units)

Source: Company, Siam

Source: Siam, ICICIdirect.com Research

Bajaj Auto: Two-wheeler sales volumes

Bajaj Auto (BAAUTO)

Source: SIAM, ICICIdirect.com Research

Bajaj Auto: Three-wheeler sales volumes

Exhibit 8: Volume performance (in units)

Source: Company, Siam

Source: SIAM, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd. |

TVS Motors : Scooter sales volumes

TVS Motors (TVSSUZ)

Source: Siam, ICICIdirect.com Research

TVS Motors: Motorcycles & mopeds volumes

Exhibit 9: Volume performance (in units)

Source: Siam, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd. |

Exhibit 10: Volume trends in executive segment

Bajaj Auto (LHS)

Hero Motocorp (RHS)

Exhibit 11: Volume trends in premium segment