Scribd Logo
Upload

Welcome to Scribd!

  • 49 views

    Error and Uncertainty: General Statistical Principles

    Uploaded by

    déborah_rosales
    1) Descriptive statistics are used to describe data, while inductive statistics use descriptive statistics to make inferences. Both are needed to fully interpret results. 2) There are three main types of error: systematic from flawed methods, random from measurement limits, and blunders from human errors. 3) Probability is a quantity associated with an event that describes its likelihood of occurring, demonstrated using dice rolls which become continuous in a normal distribution as the number of dice approaches infinity.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Error and Uncertainty: General Statistical Principles

    Uploaded by

    déborah_rosales
    49 views8 pages
    1) Descriptive statistics are used to describe data, while inductive statistics use descriptive statistics to make inferences. Both are needed to fully interpret results. 2) There are three main types of error: systematic from flawed methods, random from measurement limits, and blunders from human errors. 3) Probability is a quantity associated with an event that describes its likelihood of occurring, demonstrated using dice rolls which become continuous in a normal distribution as the number of dice approaches infinity.

    Original Title

    02 Basic Statistics

    Copyright

    © Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)

    Available Formats

    PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Did you find this document useful?

    Is this content inappropriate?

    1) Descriptive statistics are used to describe data, while inductive statistics use descriptive statistics to make inferences. Both are needed to fully interpret results. 2) There are three main types of error: systematic from flawed methods, random from measurement limits, and blunders from human errors. 3) Probability is a quantity associated with an event that describes its likelihood of occurring, demonstrated using dice rolls which become continuous in a normal distribution as the number of dice approaches infinity.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    49 views8 pages

    Error and Uncertainty: General Statistical Principles

    Uploaded by

    déborah_rosales
    1) Descriptive statistics are used to describe data, while inductive statistics use descriptive statistics to make inferences. Both are needed to fully interpret results. 2) There are three main types of error: systematic from flawed methods, random from measurement limits, and blunders from human errors. 3) Probability is a quantity associated with an event that describes its likelihood of occurring, demonstrated using dice rolls which become continuous in a normal distribution as the number of dice approaches infinity.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 8
    At a glance
    Powered by AI
    The key takeaways are that descriptive statistics are used to describe data, inductive statistics are used to make predictions or decisions based on descriptive statistics, and errors can occur systematically or randomly in measurements.

    The different types of statistics discussed are descriptive statistics, inductive statistics, probability, and inferential statistics.

    Descriptive statistics are used to describe the nature of the data while inductive statistics use descriptive statistics to make statements, predictions, or decisions about the population.

    General statistical principles

    Descriptive statistics Used to describe the nature of your data. Inductive statistics The use of descriptive statistics to make a statement, prediction or decision. Descriptive statistics are commonly reported but both are needed to interpret results.

    Error and uncertainty


    Error - difference between your answer and the true one. Systematic - problem with a method, all errors are of the same size, magnitude and direction. Easy to correct. Random - based on limits and precision of a measurement. Can be treated statistically. Blunders - you screw up. Best to just repeat the work.

    Probability
    A character associated with an event ! - its tendency to take place. To see what were talking about, lets use an example - a 10 sided die. If a person had a die and gave it a series of rolls, what would be the expected result?

    One roll of the die


    frequency 1/10
    0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

    For a single roll, each value is equally likely to come up. What if a person had two dice?

    Two dice
    Average of two dice - one roll

    More dice
    Three dice

    0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
    0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

    Four dice

    We can continue this trend, using more dice and a single roll.

    0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

    Normal distribution Even more dice


    As the number of dice approaches innity, the values become continuous. The curve becomes a normal or Gaussian distribution The distribution can be described by:

    ]x - ng 1 f ]x g = e 2v 2rv 2
    2

    -3 < x < + 3
    P(x) - standard deviation - universal mean An innite data set is required.

    Normal distribution
    These terms can be calculated by: Universal mean Variance Standard deviation

    Normal distribution
    Both variance and standard deviation measure the
    dispersion of data around the universal mean.

    n =! x i N i =1

    Standard deviation is usually easier to use because


    2

    v =!_ x i - ni
    2 i =1

    it has the same units as the original data - provides more weight to the central data. original data. It is a more sensitive measure of dispersion - providing more weight to the outlying data. That why well manipulate data via variance no SD.

    Variance will have units that are the square of the

    v = v2

    These are for innite data sets but can be used for data sets where N > 100 and any variation is truly random in nature.

    Variances are additive, Standard deviations are not.

    Normal distribution
    + 1 = 68.3% + 2 = 95.5% + 3 = 99.7% -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 2mg 5mg 8mg 11mg 14mg 17mg 20mg When determining , you are assuming a normal distribution and relating your data to units.

    Normal distribution areas

    -3 -2

    -1

    +1

    +2 +3

    The area under any portion of the curve tells you the probability of an event occurring.

    Large data sets


    We can use the normal distribution curve to predict the likelihood of an event occurring. This approach is only valid for large data sets and is useful for things like quality control of mass produced products. In the following examples, we will assume that there is a very large data set and that and have been tracked.

    The reduced variable


    Assuming you know and for a dataset, you can calculate u (the reduced variable) as:

    u=

    _ x - ni

    This is simply converting your test value from your normal units (mg, hours, ...) to standard deviation.

    Using the reduced variable


    |u| 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8

    Form A
    area 0.5000 0.4207 0.3446 0.2743 0.2119 0.1587 0.1151 0.0808 0.0548 0.0359 |u| 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 area 0.0227 0.0139 0.0082 0.0047 0.0026 1.3x10-3 3.2x10-5 9.9x10-10 6.2x10-16 7.6x10-24

    Assuming that your data is normally distributed, you can use u to predict the probability of an event occurring. The probability can be found by looking up u on a table - Form A and Form B. Many spreadsheets also allow for calculation of these values. Which form you use is based on the question being asked.

    This form will give you the area under the curve from u to innity.

    Example
    This form will give you the area under the curve from 0 to u

    Form B
    |u| 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 area 0.0000 0.0793 0.1554 0.2258 0.2881 0.3413 0.3849 0.4192 |u| 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 area 0.445 0.464 0.477 0.486 0.491 0.495 0.497 0.498

    A tire is produced with the following statistics regarding usable milage. = 58000 miles = 10000 miles What mileage should be guaranteed so that less than 5% of the tires would need to be replaced?

    Example
    Looking on Form A, we nd that an area of 0.05 comes closest to 1.6 . Now use the reduced variable equation using a of -1.6 (we want the value to be less than the mean.) ! ! -1.6 = ( x - 58000) / 10000 x = 42000 miles

    Using Excel
    The same problem can be solved for using a spreadsheet like Excel. This problem can be solved using the function, NORMINV. It provides more accuracy because it is not limited to the resolution of the table.

    Using Excel

    Another example
    You install a pH electrode to monitor a process stream. The manufacturer provided you with the follow values regarding electrode life time: = 8000 hours = 200 hours If you needed to replace the electrode after 7200 hours of use, was the electrode bad?.

    Using Excel

    Another example
    u = (7200 - 8000) / 200 = -4.0 Looking on form A, we nd that the probability at a value of 4 is 3.2 x 10-5 That means that only 0.0032 % of all electrodes would fail at 7200 hours or earlier. You have a bad electrode.

    More on Excel functions.


    NORMDIST Will determine the area beyond a specic point on a Gaussian curve. NORMINV Inverse of NORMDIST. Used to nd the specic X value that will result in the target area. Both work with Form A values. Form B values can be found by subtracting areas from one (1).

    Smaller data sets


    mean x =x = ! ni
    n i =1 n 2 2 i =1

    variance =s = !_ x i - x i

    Smaller data sets


    When we use smaller data sets, we must be concerned with: Are the samples representative of the population? The values must be truly random. If we pick a non-random set like all men or women, are the differences signicant?

    Smaller data sets


    This example shows what can happen if a bias is introduced during sampling.

    Red - random sampling Blue - bias in sampling

    Smaller data sets


    In this example, a bias is introduced simply by separately evaluating males and females. total population

    Other types of bias


    detection limit bias

    females males

    nominal value bias

    outliers
    -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

    Smaller data sets


    Introducing a bias is not always a bad thing. The bias could be due to a true difference between the populations It also could be due to poor sampling of a population. We need tools to tell the difference.

    Univariate tools
    For a normal distribution: Mean numerical average of values Median central tendency center value of ranked data actual value if N is odd average of two center value if N is even. Mode most frequent value

    Univariate tools
    Ideally, all three values should be the same. If not the same, at least very close

    Skewness
    This is a test to see if a population is Gaussian.

    mean, median and mode

    g = i =1

    !^x - x h
    N s3 x
    g<0

    g=0

    g>0

    Kurtosis
    Closely related to skewness. While skewness measures a bias in the distribution, kurtosis measures how at a distribution is.

    Using Kurtosis or Skewness


    4

    !^x - x h kurtosis =
    N s4 x

    Divide the skew (or kurtosis) figure by the standard error of the skew (kurtosis). If the value is greater than 1.96 or less than -1.96 your data is significantly skewed (kurtotic)

    -3

    Platykurtic Mesokurtic Leptokurtic

    Using Kurtosis or Skewness


    SE Skew = 6 N

    For small data sets


    variance standard deviation degrees of freedom standard deviation of the mean coefcient of variance

    s2=

    - xh ! ^x ^n - 1h
    n i i=1

    Z=

    g SE Skew

    s = s2 { =n - 1
    x RSD = 100 s x
    x cv = s x

    sx = sx n

    SE Kertosis = 24 N

    relative standard deviation

    Using Excel for descriptive statistics

    Using XLStat for descriptive statistics

    Using XLStat for descriptive statistics

    Degrees of freedom
    { or df =n - # of parameters
    Example. If you had 10 measurements, they could be used in pairs to obtain 9 different measurements of the mean. If you tried to do a 10th, one of the pairs would have already been used - same standard deviation.

    Degrees of freedom
    When doing a linear regression t of a line using X,Y data pairs, the model used (Y = mX + b) results in two parameters. The degrees of freedom would be N-2 in this case (or model). So the model used determines the degrees of freedom.

    Pooled statistics
    In many cases it is necessary to combine results: values from separate labs data collected on separate days a different instrument was used a different method of analysis was used When we combined the data, we refer to this as pooling the data.

    Pooled statistics
    We cant simply combine all of the values and calculate the mean and other statistical values. There may have been differences with the results obtained. There might have been different numbers of samples collected with each set. We also would like a way to tell if the results are signicantly different.

    Pooled statistics

    2 + df s 2 +... + df s 2 df 1s 1 1 2 1 k p= df 1 + df 2 + ... + df k
    The pooled standard deviation is weighted by the degrees of freedom. This accounts for the number of data points and any parameters used in obtaining the results.

    Example
    Set 1 2 3 4

    s n
    1.35 2.00 2.45 1.55 10 7 6 12

    { s 2 {s 2
    9 6 5 11 1.82 4.00 6.00 2.40 16.4 24.0 30.0 26.4

    sp=

    16.4 + 24.0 + 30.0 + 26.4 9 + 6 + 5 + 11

    =1.77

    You might also like