Zain Analysis Report
Zain Analysis Report
Zain Analysis Report
Table of Contents
1. 2. BACKGROUND ....................................................................................................................................... 2 INDUSTRY ANALYSIS.............................................................................................................................. 3 2.1. Saudi Mobile Industry SWOT analysis........................................................................................... 3 3. MOBILE OPERATORS ............................................................................................................................. 4 3.1. STC................................................................................................................................................. 4 3.2. Mobily (Etihad Etisalat) ................................................................................................................. 5 3.3. Zain (Subject company)................................................................................................................. 5 4. FINANCIAL STATEMENT ANALYSIS ........................................................................................................ 6 4.1. Revenue Analysis .......................................................................................................................... 6 4.2. Expense Analysis ........................................................................................................................... 7 4.2.1. Cost of Sales: ......................................................................................................................... 7 4.2.2. Distribution and Marketing ................................................................................................... 8 4.2.3. Capital Expenditures ............................................................................................................. 8 4.2.4. Depreciation and Amortization........................................................................................... 10 4.2.5. Financial Charges ................................................................................................................ 10 4.2.6. Selling and General Administration .................................................................................... 10 4.2.7. Zakat and Tax Expenses ...................................................................................................... 10 5. CONCLUSIONS FROM FINANCIAL ANALYSIS ....................................................................................... 10 5.1. Licensing Fees ............................................................................................................................. 10 5.2. Economies of Scale and Scope .................................................................................................... 11 5.3. Marketing Efficiency ................................................................................................................... 11 6. FUTURE OUTLOOK .............................................................................................................................. 12
List of Figures
Figure 1: Saudi Mobile Market Share ........................................................................................................... 2 Figure 2: STC Ownership Composition.......................................................................................................... 5 Figure 3: Monthly ARPU ($US) By Operator ................................................................................................. 7 Figure 4: Customer Acquisition Cost ($US) By Operator .............................................................................. 8
List of Tables
Table 1: Saudi Mobile Market Data .............................................................................................................. 4 Table 2: Operator Financial Comparison (000 SAR) ...................................................................................... 6 Table 3: Operator DuPont Analysis ............................................................................................................... 6 Table 4: Cash Flow from Operations to CAPEX Ratio .................................................................................... 9 Table 5: CAPEX By Operator.......................................................................................................................... 9 Table 6: Sales to PP&E Ratio ......................................................................................................................... 9 Table 7: Current Ratio Analysis ................................................................................................................... 11 Page 1 of 15
1. BACKGROUND
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) began the process of restructuring its telecommunications sector with the incorporation of the state-run Saudi Telecommunications Company (STC) in 1998. Responsibility for providing fixed-line and mobile services to the country was shifted from The Ministry of Post, Telegraph, and Telephone to STC, effectively creating a monopoly. This perfect monopoly caused comparatively high prices and poor service. Monopolistic structure of the industry meant there was no incentive to build a telecommunications network outside the metro regions. This, coupled with the relatively sparse population of the Kingdom, limited the quality and speed of the countrys telecommunications infrastructure roll-out. As a result, the Communication and Information Technology Commission (CITC), the regulator of the Saudi Arabian telecommunications market, was formed in 2001 to promote increased infrastructure investment. In 2002, CITC issued a second mobile services license, thus allowing Etisalat a telecommunication services company based in the United Arab Emirates to offer mobile services in the country through its subsidiary company, Mobily, that launched operations in 2005. No additional mobile licenses were issued until 2007 when Zain (formerly MTC, Kuwaits state-run telecom) won the rights to a 25 year license with a bid of $6.1B (USD). Zain KSA launched in 2008 and enrolled 2 million subscribers within 4 months of launch. Zain has not been profitable to date, but has been gaining market share (Ref. Figure 1). Both of these factors can likely be partially attributed to Zains lower price strategy. Our goal in this research is to investigate the reasons behind the losses of Zain and try to figure out how the company can start generating profits in the rapidly growing telecom industry. Figure 1: Saudi Mobile Market Share
Page 2 of 15
2. INDUSTRY ANALYSIS
The Saudi Arabian mobile telecom sector continues to show good growth (Ref. Table 1). Four and a half million new subscribers were added in 2011 bringing the total mobile subscriber base to 56.1 mm. Saudi Arabia is one of a handful of countries worldwide, mostly in the Middle East, in which the number of mobile customers continues to expand despite having a penetration rate which has passed 200%. This is mostly driven by consumers using multiple short term pre-paid subscription. Despite these gains, this market is close to saturation; besides, some of these gains have been supported by temporary subscribers participating in the Hajj (an Islamic pilgrimage to Mecca). Additionally, mobile operators are facing declining average revenue per user (ARPU), a key industry metric. Overall decline in telecom ARPU can at least partially be attributed to increased competition from to Zains entrance.
Page 3 of 15
44,800.0 51,600.0 58,308.0 60,277.0 62,352.0 64,460.0 66,964.0 68,638.0 167.1 1,074.0 5,490.0 12.30% 188.0 207.6 210.0 212.7 215.4 219.3 220.4 1,249.4 1,392.2 1,433.8 1,475.3 1,518.5 1,574.1 1,611.8 7,645.0 10,308.0 13,633.0 17,719.0 22,600.0 28,245.0 32,482.0 14.80% 17.70% 22.60% 28.40% 35.10% 42.20% 47.30%
Page 4 of 15
a One Network brand image where subscribers can enjoy local rates in all the countries that Zain operates in. Unlike its profitable parent company in Kuwait, Zain KSA has been generating losses every quarter since its inception. In addition, the company is burdened with a large debt that was issued to pay the $6.1 billion license fee, and to build the infrastructure needed for the service coverage. With the consecutive losses, the company is at a risk of defaulting on its interest expenses.
Table 3: 2011 Operator DuPont Analysis STC Profit Margin Asset Turnover Financial Leverage ROE (book) 13.88% 49.97% 237.49% 16.48% Mobily 25.35% 53.47% 203.94% 27.65% Zain -28.74% 25.05% 622.95% -44.84%
spend more on mobile services. This could possibly be achieved by launching promotions such as free text messages or offering discounted services. Hence, marketing becomes a significant expense for the operators as it accounts for between 20% and 50% of the total operating expenses. With pre-paid plans, an operator has less information on its current users because pre-paid subscribers can terminate their usage easily, contrary to the post-paid (contract) plan. This becomes especially apparent for the Saudi operators because the usage of phones increase significantly during the Hajjj pilgrimage that brings high number of temporal users. The profitability in the industry is a strong function of the Average Revenue per User (ARPU) (See Figure 3). Again, this number is reliable only to a certain extent because none of the mobile operators can track their user base precisely. STC remains the most profitable company in the industry with an ARPU of $24.38. We note that STC has multiple revenue streams where GSM (telecom) accounts for 63% of it. Our analysis adjusted the revenue numbers to ensure consistent comparison with other telecom companies: Zain and Mobily. Figure 3: Monthly ARPU ($US) By Operator
Mobily
Zain
One way to investigate the reasons behind Zains losses is to compare the expense level across the three companies. Table 2 shows the main five expenses of the three firms, and the ratios of these expenses to 2011 sales. 4.2.1. Cost of Sales: The largest expense is attributable to cost of sales, with STC having the lowest ratio at roughly 44%, and Zain the highest at 52%. The lower ratios of STC and Mobily could possibly be due to economies of scale
Page 7 of 15
given the size of these firms and the efficiencies that arise from their other services, such as DSL and other broadband services. 4.2.2. Distribution and Marketing Distribution and marketing expenses are significant across all three companies. In this category, Mobily is the most efficient is this respect as distribution and marketing accounts for only 5.4% of revenue. STC has a higher ratio at 13.3%, while Zain is much higher at almost 30%. Looking mainly at Zain and Mobily as they are more focused on the mobile phone segment, which makes a significant differenc. Even in absolute numbers, Zain spent almost twice what Mobily spent in 2011 (which amounts to roughly a billion Saudi Riyals). The footnotes dont detail the breakup of the expense very well for Mobily. Yet, Zains expenses are well above Mobilys numbers in advertising, promotions and sales commissions. Although the company is by far the least efficient marketer in terms of revenue generated, Zain is reasonably efficient in terms of customer acquisition cost, as shown in Figure 4. Figure 4: Customer Acquisition Cost ($US) By Operator
$461.53
$219.63
$262.95
STC
Mobily
Zain
From the chart above we can see that STC was the least efficient one, which might not be surprising given the overall state-owned mentality of the STC. Yet, Zain managed to spend 20% more than its major rival, Mobily. This suggests that either Zain is beyond its maximum return in terms of dollars of advertising over increase in sales; or it should review its marketing strategy all together, and perhaps investigate how Mobily spends its advertising dollars. 4.2.3. Capital Expenditures Consistent with the industry trend, all firms are constantly looking for ways to expand the capacities of their mobile broadband network; increase efficiency and meet the growing demand for internet services, data transfer and storage. In fact, competition in the industry is driven to a major extent by technological performance and innovation. The magnitude of capital expenditures in this industry suggests that only few big players can in fact remain profitable. Page 8 of 15
The recent announcement of the LTE launch (mobile technology which is sometimes referred to as 4G) was made by the three major operators in the market within days of each other in September 2011. This demonstrates the importance of innovation for this industry. One way to assess industrys ability to acquire long-term assets or invest in infrastructure would be to compare the ratio of Cash Flow from Operating Activities to Capital Expenditure. It becomes apparent that Zains current operations do not cover its capital expenditures. These are mainly financed through issuance of long-term debt Table 4: Cash Flow from Operations to CAPEX Ratio STC CFO/Capital Expenditures 2.24 Mobily 1.81 Zain 0.12
In absolute terms, STC spent twice that of what Mobily spent and ten times what Zain spent. Investment in telecommunications infrastructure and equipment represents 75% of the total PP&E account. This proportion is consistent among the three operators. Table 5: CAPEX By Operator STC Capital Expenditures (SAR) Capital Expenditures (USD) (in '000,000) -$7,837,438 $2,090 Mobily -$3,700,297 $987 Zain -$712,601 $190
Clearly, STC has the largest amount of investment capital available for its expansion. At the same time we should note that Zain utilizes its PP&E the best with each dollar in PP&E generating $1.65 in sales. Table 6: Sales to PP&E Ratio STC Sales / PP&E 1.010 Mobily 1.222 Zain 1.650
Page 9 of 15
4.2.4. Depreciation and Amortization The depreciation expense includes depreciation of tangible assets (such as PP&E) and amortization of intangible assets (such as GMS license). Although Zains depreciation expense was only 1.7 billion riyals, compared to 2.1 billion and 8.9 billion riyals for Mobily and STC respectively, Zains expense as a percentage of sales is much higher than that of the other two firms. We confirmed that all three companies depreciate their telecommunication equipment (PP&E contribution to depreciation) using useful lives of between 7 and 8 years. However, Zains depreciation is much higher due to the high underlying book value of its GMS license, which accounts for more than 50% of the depreciation expense for Zain and only 23% for Mobily. STC does not report its amortization for intangible assets. 4.2.5. Financial Charges This is a very critical expense as it amounts to 16% of Zains revenue, compared to only 4% and 1% for STC and Mobily. Due to the high debt that Zain had to incur to finance its license, Zain is paying more than a billion Saudi Riyals every year on interest expenses. With a very minimal tax rate (around 1%), there is virtually no tax shield advantage from this debt. 4.2.6. Selling and General Administration General administration expenses for all three firms are below 10%. Zain has lower spending in this category, which might be partially due to lower bonuses and profit sharing as a result of the losses. 4.2.7. Zakat and Tax Expenses Zakat is simply an Islamic Finance term for taxes in Saudi Arabia. Zakat expense is very low with an average effective rate of roughly 1% of pre-Zakat income, based on the earning statements of STC and Mobily. As a result, the value of the tax shield is very minimal. As for the tax expense in STCs financial statement, that is due to the companys operations in foreign countries, which is not relevant to Zain KSA.
Page 10 of 15
This initial high capital expenditure had various negative effects on Zain. First, due to the high license fee, the depreciation and amortization expense would be significantly higher compared to Mobily, resulting in bigger operating losses. Even though depreciation isnt an actual cash flow, the accumulated net losses of the firm can trigger a freeze on the stock of the firm to force a restructuring and recapitalization, which is likely to happen in the coming months. The high license fee has forced Zain to take on a lot of debt to finance the operating license. This raised the firms leverage (debt to value) to 66%, compared to 42% at STC and 31% at Mobily. High leverage increased the cost of equity and burdened the company with high interest expenses. The short-term liquidity of Zain is also worrisome when compared to its two counterparts. The current ratio indicates that the company barely has any liquid assets to meet its short term debt obligations. Table 7: Current Ratio Analysis STC
Current Ratio 0.870
Mobily
0.548
Zain
0.157
Page 11 of 15
6. FUTURE OUTLOOK
The most imminent threat to Zain is the $2.6 billion loan that is due in about two months. It appears, however, that the company will survive it and be able to refinance as it heads into the restructuring and recapitalization. It was announced that the restructuring plan will consist of a $1.6 billion cash infusion through a rights offering. This will help Zain to do both: pay a significant portion of the debt and to expand the coverage network. With lower debt and better coverage, Zain is expected to have lower interest expenses and lower access charges in its expected future cash flows. Although we are expecting that Zain will be able to pay a portion of the debt and refinance the rest, the debt to equity ratio remains relatively high and keeps the company under a notable default risk. So far, Zain has been able to keep rolling over and refinancing the debt because of the lenders trust in the rapidly growing telecom industry. With the high profits that STC and Mobily are generating, the banks believe that Zain is more valuable as a going concern and that it will eventually be able to become profitable and pay down its debt. However, Zain will have to maintain this trust by improving its operation efficiency to ensure its long-term presence in the Saudi telecom market. One way to do that is to improve its marketing efficiency. So far, Mobily has been the most efficient in marketing, with STC and Zain trailing. With roughly 2 billion Saudi Riyals spent on distribution and marketing, we think that there is a significant room for cost cutting before the company reaches Mobilys spending level of 1 billion Riyals. Although this can have negative effects on the market share growth, it would improve the companys ability to pay down its debt. Besides marketing efficiency, Zain might consider diversifying its revenue stream by entering other less competitive market segments, as Mobily did with the acquisition of Bayanat. This diversification would reduce the risk of future cash flows, and might improve the profit margins due to the less competition in the new segment. Moreover, Zain will have the ability to attract customers by combining the various services into promotion packages. One other action that Zain can take is to try and renegotiate the license fee, which is the prime cause behind the consecutive losses that the company had. There might be some room for renegotiation as the fee was almost twice what Mobily paid, even though the market was more saturated when Zain entered. In addition to that, Zain should keep pushing the communication and information technology commission to add more regulations and reduce the access charges that Zain has to incur as a new entrant with significant disadvantage in infrastructure.
Page 12 of 15
Page 13 of 15
Page 14 of 15
Page 15 of 15