Analysis of TruEarth

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The document models different scenarios for estimating fresh pizza purchase volumes based on varying customer awareness, marketing effectiveness, existing customer base, and repeat purchase rates to project retail sales and profits.

Factors being considered include initial purchase intent surveys, estimated customer and non-customer awareness of fresh pizza, projected customer awareness based on marketing efforts, adjusted trial rates, repeat purchase occasions, and percentages of customers who will repurchase.

Nine cases are modeled with variations in marketing effectiveness being mediocre (21%), average (37%), or excellent (49%); existing customer base being 5%, 10%, or 15%; and repeat purchase rates varying accordingly.

Fresh Pizza Purchase Volume Estimates, Year 1 Trial Purchase intent Definitely would buy % of "Definites" who actually

buy People who will "Definitely" purchase Probably would buy % of "Probables" who actually buy People who will "Probably" purchase Total trial rate Adjusted Awareness and Purchase Behavior Estimates Total Target Households Percentage of Pasta/Pizza customers Customer Awareness Total Aware Customers Non-Customer Awareness Total Non-Aware Customers Projected Customer Awareness % of Projected Customer Awareness ACV (All Commodity Volume Distribution ) Marketing Adjusted Trial Rate Trial Households Repeat purchase occasions % of repurchasers (Excellent) Repeat Purchases Total Purchases Retail per purchase Total Retail of Purchases (Estimated) Estimated Retail needed Profit on Retail

18% 80% 14.40% 43% 30% 12.90% 27.30%

58.8 11% 50% 3.234 12% 6.280 9.51 16.18% 40% 1.77% 1.039 2 49% 0.98 2.019 12.38 24.99 12.0 13.0

Case 1 - Mediocre 21%, Customers 5% Customer Awareness Non-Customer Awareness Projected Customer Awareness Marketing Adjusted Trial Rate Trial Households Repeat Purchases Total Purchases Total Retail of Purchases Profit/loss

5% 95% 13.90% 1.52% 0.893 0.42 1.313 16.25 -8.75

Case 2 - Average 37%, Customers 5% Repeat Purchases Total Purchases Total Retail of Purchases Profit/loss Case 3 - Excellent 49%, Customers 5% Repeat Purchases Total Purchases Total Retail of Purchases Profit/loss

0.74 1.633 20.21 -4.78

0.98 1.873 23.18 -1.81

Case 4 - Mediocre 21%, Customers 10% Customer Awareness Non-Customer Awareness Projected Customer Awareness Marketing Adjusted Trial Rate Trial Households Repeat Purchases Total Purchases Total Retail of Purchases Profit/loss

10% 90% 15.80% 1.725% 1.015 0.42 1.435 17.7592546 -7.23

Case 5 - Average 37%, Customers 10% Repeat Purchases Total Purchases Total Retail of Purchases Profit/loss Case 6 - Excellent 49%, Customers 10% Repeat Purchases Total Purchases Total Retail of Purchases Profit/loss

0.74 1.755 21.7208546 -3.27

0.98 1.995 24.6920546 -0.30

Case 7 - Mediocre 21%, Customers 15% Customer Awareness Non-Customer Awareness Projected Customer Awareness Marketing Adjusted Trial Rate Trial Households Repeat Purchases Total Purchases Total Retail of Purchases Profit/loss

15% 85% 17.70% 1.933% 1.137 0.42 1.557 19.27 -5.72

Case 8 - Average 37%, Customers 15% Repeat Purchases Total Purchases Total Retail of Purchases Profit/loss Case 9- Excellent 49%, Customers 15% Repeat Purchases Total Purchases Total Retail of Purchases Profit/loss

0.74 1.877 23.2311928 -1.76

0.98 2.117 26.2023928 1.21

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