Moving Averages
Moving Averages
Moving Averages
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Demand 3 Month Moving Avg. 4 Month Moving Avg. 3 Month Weighted Moving Avg.
280
288
340
266
278
275.6666667
295
283
282.25
284.1666667
330
302
287.6666667
287.75
293.6666667
310
302.3333333
293.25
304.8333333
320
303
305
302.5
305.1666667
310
328
313.6666667
310.75
316.6666667
309
313.3333333
312.5
314.3333333
300
315
317.3333333
313.75
315.1666667
320
314.6666667
318
316.5
290
332
322.3333333
319
325.1666667
280
310
320.6666667
319.25
319
308
316.6666667
317.5
312.6666667
270
320
312.6666667
317.5
314.3333333
Estimation of t
260
250
1
10
11
12
Demand
3 Month Moving Avg
4 Month Moving Avg
3 Month Weighted Moving Avg
13
14
15
h Moving Avg
h Moving Avg
Forecasting
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
270
260
250
240
230
220
210
200
1
10
11
221.1666667
219.8333333
238.1666667
243
242.8333333
241.8333333
249.1666667
256
261.8333333
Demand
3 Month Moving Average
4 Month Moving Average
5 Month Moving Average
3 Month Weighted Moving Avg
4 Month Weighted Moving Avg
11
12
220.3
235.1
239.3
241.4
243.3
247.5
253.5
259.6
Exponential Smoothing
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Demand
213
201
198
207
220
232
210
217
212
225
For
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
|SUM|
MAD
0.2
Demand
213
201
198
207
220
232
210
217
212
225
Forecast
208
209
207.4
205.52
205.816
208.6528
213.3222
212.6578
213.5262
213.221
Error
5
8
9.4
1.48
14.184
23.3472
3.32224
4.342208
1.526234
11.77901
82.38089
8.238089
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
|SUM|
MAD
MSE
MAPE
42.74043
For
Demand
213
201
198
207
220
232
210
217
212
225
111.8364
4.274043
0.5
Forecast
208
210.5
205.75
201.875
204.4375
212.2188
222.1094
216.0547
216.5273
214.2637
Error
5
9.5
7.75
5.125
15.5625
19.78125
12.10938
0.945313
4.527344
10.73633
91.03711 SUM
9.103711
91.03711
Error*Error
25
90.25
60.0625
26.265625
242.1914063
391.2978516
146.6369629
0.893615723
20.49684143
115.2687416
1118.363544
For
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
|SUM|
MAD
0.8
Demand
213
201
198
207
220
232
210
217
212
225
Forecast
208
212
203.2
199.04
205.408
217.0816
229.0163
213.8033
216.3607
212.8721
Error
5
11
5.2
7.96
14.592
14.9184
19.01632
3.196736
4.360653
12.12787
97.37198
9.737198
For = 0.2
Month
Demand
0
208
1
213
2
201
3
198
4
207
5
220
6
232
7
210
8
217
9
212
10
225
Forecast
#N/A
208
209
207.4
205.52
205.816
208.6528
213.3222
212.6578
213.5262
213.221
For = 0.5
Month
Demand
0
208
1
213
2
201
3
198
4
207
5
220
6
232
7
210
8
217
9
212
10
225
Forecast
#N/A
208
210.5
205.75
201.875
204.4375
212.2188
222.1094
216.0547
216.5273
214.2637
For = 0.5
Month
Demand
0
208
1
213
2
201
3
198
4
207
5
220
6
232
7
210
8
217
9
212
10
225
Forecast
#N/A
208
212
203.2
199.04
205.408
217.0816
229.0163
213.8033
216.3607
212.8721
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Month
10
5
0
1
18.1
23.3
22.2
19.5
16.4
17.5
21.5
21.8
Actual Sales
3 Monthly Mov
4 Monthly Mov
3 Monthly Weig
4 Monthly Weig
7
Months
10
11
12
Actual Sales
3 Monthly Moving Avg
4 Monthly Moving Avg.
3 Monthly Weighted Moving Avg
4 Monthly Weighted Moving Avg
Year
S. No. (x)
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Sales (y) XY
82
80
90
92
83
94
99
92
x*x
0
80
180
276
332
470
594
644
yt
0
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
64
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
Total
a
b
x bar
y bar
Yt
28
82
2
3.5
89
84
712
2576
140
712
Year
I
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
AVERAGE
Seasonal Index
II
18
27
17
30
21
26
21
29
19
28
22
30
24
32
21
29
20.375
28.875
0.91573 1.297753
Quarter
III
IV
TOTAL
23
14
82
20
13
80
23
20
90
26
16
92
22
14
83
26
16
94
24
19
99
29
13
92
24.125
15.625
22.25
1.08427 0.702247
x*x
660
1280
888
1248
1512
306
710
392
912
852
25
64
36
64
81
9
25
16
36
36
72.5 + 11.25X
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
0
185
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations
0.906550835
0.821834416
0.799563718
10.47616342
10
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total
1
8
9
Coefficients
Intercept
No. of Salesmen(x)
SS
4050
878
4928
MS
F
Significance F
4050 36.90205 0.000298
109.75
RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation Predicted No. of Cars Booked(y)
Residuals
Standard Residuals
1
128.75
3.25 0.329047
2
162.5
-2.5 -0.25311
3
140
8 0.809961
4
162.5
-6.5 -0.65809
5
173.75
-5.75 -0.58216
6
106.25
-4.25 -0.43029
7
8
9
10
128.75
117.5
140
140
13.25 1.341498
-19.5 -1.97428
12 1.214941
2 0.20249
Regression Graph
y = 11.25x + 72.5
10
ignificance F
Upper 95.0%
Upper 95%Lower 95.0% 99.23809
99.23809 45.76191 15.52058
15.52058 6.979415
Prior Experience
28
74
4
33
87
11
21
69
4
40
69
9
38
81
7
46
97
10
If an employee scored 83 in the aptitude test and prior experience of 7, what performance evaluation would be expected ?
Yc
4.871 + 0.211X1 + 1.689X2
Yc
34.207
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations
0.765994858
0.586748122
0.311246871
7.435315585
6
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total
Intercept
Aptitude Test Score
Prior Experience
2
3
5
Coefficients
4.870954314
0.211208242
1.689509835
SS
MS
F
Significance F
235.4815798 117.7408 2.129748 0.265658
165.8517536 55.28392
401.3333333
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value Lower 95%
25.89727572 0.188088 0.862811 -77.5457
0.396316025 0.532929 0.631034 -1.05005
1.457638946 1.159073 0.330304 -2.94935
on would be expected ?
ignificance F
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Time (t)
$
292636.4
306606.1
320575.8
334545.5
348515.2
362484.8
376454.5
390424.2
404393.9
418363.6
432333.3
270
250
1
y = 13.97x + 278.67
10
Time Period
2
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.946476235
R Square
0.895817263
Adjusted R Square
0.882794421
Standard Error 15.29879179
Observations
10
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total
Intercept
Time (t)
1
8
9
Coefficients
278.6666667
13.96969697
SS
MS
F
Significance F
16100.07576 16100.08 68.78815 3.37E-05
1872.424242 234.053
17972.5
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
10.45106442 26.66395 4.21E-09 254.5665 302.7669 254.5665
1.684341541 8.293862 3.37E-05 10.0856 17.8538 10.0856
RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation
Predicted Sales (In $ 1000) Residuals Standard Residuals
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
292.6363636
306.6060606
320.5757576
334.5454545
348.5151515
362.4848485
376.4545455
390.4242424
404.3939394
418.3636364
7.363636364
-11.60606061
9.424242424
10.45454545
-28.51515152
7.515151515
3.545454545
9.575757576
-19.39393939
11.63636364
0.510518
-0.80464
0.65338
0.72481
-1.97695
0.521023
0.245805
0.663884
-1.34458
0.806745
ated Sales
11
10
Upper 95.0%
302.7669
17.8538
12
Sales Volume
Multiple Regression
Week
Sales (In 1000 Rs.) (Y)
1
72
2
76
3
78
4
70
5
68
6
80
7
82
8
65
9
62
10
90
11
90
Equation 47.164 + 1.599X1 + 1.148X2
SUMMARY OUTPUT
70
50
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.980326323
R Square
0.961039699
Adjusted R Square
0.949908185
Standard Error
1.910940432
Observations
10
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total
SS
2
7
9
630.5381466
25.56185335
656.1
Coefficients
Standard Error
Intercept
47.16494227
Advertising Expenditure
1.599040336
on TV and Radio (X1)
Advertising Expenditure
1.148747938
on Store Displays in malls (X2)
2.470414433
0.280963057
0.30524885
RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation
Predicted Sales (In 1000 Rs.) (Y)
1
72.09716599
2
73.94436947
3
78.04303494
Residuals
-0.097165992
2.055630529
-0.043034938
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
68.89908532
68.20062978
83.08831909
83.33648223
64.55225671
63.40350877
87.4351477
1.10091468
-0.20062978
-3.088319088
-1.336482231
0.44774329
-1.403508772
2.564852302
Estimate
72.09716599
73.94436947
78.04303494
68.89908532
68.20062978
83.08831909
83.33648223
64.55225671
63.40350877
87.4351477
216.3049933
10
11
e (In Weeks)
MS
t Stat
F
Significance F
315.2690733 86.33503537 1.17E-05
3.651693336
P-value
Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
19.09191496 2.69229E-07 41.32334 53.00654 41.32334
5.691283238 0.00074201 0.934668 2.263412 0.934668
3.763316185 0.007044246 0.426949 1.870547 0.426949
Standard Residuals
-0.057655318
1.219748083
-0.025535612
0.653248992
-0.119047555
-1.832513788
-0.793027549
0.26567713
-0.832799041
1.521904658
Upper 95.0%
53.00654
2.263412
1.870547