Manning Centre Report On Calgary City Council
Manning Centre Report On Calgary City Council
Manning Centre Report On Calgary City Council
KEY POINTS
Taking voluminous data that can be in difficult formats and parsing it into robust statistical indicators of performance is challenging, but surmountable. The system has been developed with other cities in mind, and the Foundation intends to grow this pilot to other cities in the coming years. The main challenge is that Council votes do not always contemplate familiar political divides explicitly and unambiguously. For example a decision to discount a user fee is a decision to increase taxes, but this is not stated explicitly, so judgment must be used. The methodology involves a combination of behavioural analysis (such as attendance and support for in camera time), coalition analysis (who regularly votes with and against whom?) and policy analysis (in this case who most regularly supports higher or lower taxes and spending). In systems with political parties, the public choice is simplified by candidates signing up for the values of a political party. In Calgary, and likely other cities, there is strong opposition to slates and parties entering the political sphere. An initiative such as this may offer the best of both worlds by helping to understand how independent candidates vote on the issues.
and analyze the general patterns of voting, attendance, and behavior. The Manning Foundation regards democratic accountability as vital to modern society. Essential to democratic accountability is the ability of the public to monitor the representation they receive. However, this monitoring is an immense challenge for the public, whose time is valuable and who face many demands. In one year a council can meet for 300 hours in total, while considering thousands of motions, some of which have policy implications and many of which are merely procedure. The aim of this project is to develop a methodology that simplifies and summarizes voluminous data emanating from Canadian council chambers and presents it to the public. At the provincial and federal levels of government, and in some municipalities, this information is filtered through party lenses, so it is easy for the public to see what general
positions an elected representative is likely to take. However in Calgary and likely in other municipalities, there is great opposition to this kind of party organization at the municipal level. The intent here is to provide the best of both worlds: independent candidates, and highly accessible information about how they vote. This pilot report is a first attempt at this ambitious project. It is designed to show what is possible by assembling quantitative data on a law making body where representatives do not vote along party lines. The research uses a selection of seventy-three votes taken from eighty City of Calgary Council Meetings3 from November 8th, 2010 to April 22, 2013.4 The intention is that this pilot will develop a technology and methodology that can be expanded to other municipalities in Alberta and across Canada.
Our research conducted incorporates: Coalitions (who votes with whom?) Vote analysis (who votes to raise or lower spending?) Win rate (who votes with the pack, who votes against?) Motion support (are some Councilors motions more likely to succeed?) Time spent in camera (how much of Councils meeting time is behind closed doors?) Opposition to secrecy (do any Councilors routinely oppose moving in camera?) Topics discussed in secret (what are the most common topics discussed in camera?) Question period/language complexity (are some Councilors easier or more difficult to understand than others, and what are they talking about?) Pecuniary declarations (who abstains themselves from proceedings because they have a conflict of interest?) Attendance records (who attends the most meetings, and what are the reasons given for absences?)
Methodology
These motions used for this report are not a scientific sample, and instead were selected to be votes on issues judged to command the public interest. Such a selection is necessary for any exercise such as this because a great many votes are procedural and tell us little about the policy positions that City Council is pursuing. As such, this report should not be reported as a definitive conclusion on the behavior of any particular Councilor, however the sample does show some strong themes (see key findings).
Results
Figure 1 uses a taxpayer friendly score to depict how often, out of the seventy-three votes selected, each Councilor voted to hold the line on, or reduce, spending when given the opportunity. For example, Councilor Chabot voted in such a way for 55 of the 73 votes considered, earning a score of 75.3%.
FIGURE 1
taxpayer friendly score
Percentage scale. 100 points means that the individual always votes to hold the line 0n, or reduce spending when given the opportunity.
58.9
28.8
21.9
16.4
20.5
21.9
28.8
31.5
34.2
42.5
49.3
50.7
63
68.5
75.3
FIGURE 2
Movers and seconders
Number of motions put forward and seconded, by council member.
Note that not all proposed motions or amendments are seconded.
Moved
Seconded 3 3 8 9 9 16 6 9
2 4 2 5 2 5 4 9 2 9
4 1
10 5
Figure 3 demonstrates that most Council members (thirteen of fifteen) are more likely to vote in support of a given motion than against it. Councilors Chabot and Hodges are the exception in that they are not only significantly more likely to vote against motions than their peers, but they also vote no more than they vote yes in absolute terms.
FIGURE 3
Percentage scale depicting frequency of no votes, by council member.
No votes
46.6
37.0
34.3
34.3
34.3
32.9
34.3
35.6
37.0
38.4
39.7
42.5
46.6
56.2
57.5
Figure 4 depicts the general win rate for each council member, or in percentage terms how often they were on the winning side of either passing or blocking a motion. Councilors Chabot and Demong are the only council members that are usually on the losing side of a given vote. Councilor Pootmans is the most likely to be on the winning side of a vote.
FIGURE 4
Percentage scale depicting win rate as a voter, by council member.
83.6
69.9
71.2
10
41.1
45.2
50.7
60.3
65.8
74
75.3
78.1
79.5
83.6
84.9
90.4
Figure 5 depicts the general win rate for motions attached to individual council member as either a mover or seconder, or in percentage terms how often they succeeded in getting a motion passed. While moving and seconding may be seen as an arbitrary task undertaken as a matter of protocol, note that the Councilors with lower win rates generally also have lower rates for votes that they move.
FIGURE 5
Percentage scale depicting win rate for motions attached to council member.
100
100
100
66.7
9.1
26.7
42.9
57.1
61.5
64.7
66.7
75
89.5
90.9
100
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Figure 6 uses a matrix in order to depict the individual agreement between council members. This table highlights the likelihood in percentage terms that a given person will vote the same way as another (either both in support or in opposition to a given motion).
FIGURE 6
Percentage scale depicting agreement on votes, by council member. Shading scales from red (0%) to orange (50%) to green (100%)
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Figure 7 uses an index to represent how often each Councilor is in agreement with their peers (the cumulative voting data as taken from the previous figure). A higher score on this index means that that individual more often votes with with the rest of council, while a lower score shows they vote with their peers less often.
FIGURE 7
Sum of data from Figure 6, by council member.
AGREEMENT Index
747
792
842
915
921
947
951
968
973
977
979
981
982
1005
1032
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Figures 8-A to 8-D visualize the data from the previous figures in order display individual breakdowns by council member. For example, the graph Who votes with Nenshi shows that Councilor Farrell votes with Mayor Nenshi 47 per cent of the time, whereas Councilor Carra votes with him 73 per cent of the time.
FIGURE 8a
Council AND MAYOR VOTING COMPARISONs
Percentage scale comparison of who votes with Nenshi, Carra, and Colley-Urquhart.
WHO VOTES WI TH CA R R A
55 59 62 63 66 70 71 73 74 79 81 84
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32 38
FIGURE 8B
COUNCILOR VOTING COMPARISONS
Percentage scale comparison of who votes with Chabot, Demong, Farrell, and Hodges.
85
25 25 26 32 36 40 42 45 51 55 56 62 68
WHO VOTES WI TH FA R R EL L
25 32 37 47 55 58 70 71 73 74 79 85 89 89
27 32 32 37 38 47 47 49 52 56 58 62 71
37
37
38
40
85
FIGURE 8C
COUNCILOR VOTING COMPARISONS
Percentage scale comparison of who votes with Jones, Keating, Lowe, and Macleod.
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FIGURE 8D
COUNCILOR VOTING COMPARISONS
Percentage scale comparison of who votes with Mar, Pincott, Pootmans, and Stevenson.
WHO VOTES WI TH MA R
45 49 55 59 62 63 63 63 66 67 70 70 70 71
section C: COALITIONS
Using the previously determined who votes with whom data, we can compare Councilors outlook toward the rest of council to see if they, as groups, tend to disagree or agree with certain individuals. The following six case studies examine the voting relationships between Councilors. Figure 9 demonstrates a pronounced difference in how Councilors Farrell and Chabot vote, and is used as the first case study. Farrell and Chabot rarely vote the same way (25%). They were chosen for this case study because they have the most marked difference in how they vote out of any of the fifteen members of council. Councillors who vote more often with one are more likely to vote against the other.
FIGURE 9
How Councilors Chabot and Farrell vote versus the rest of council.
100 85 74 56 47 32 73 68 58 55 62 55 36 26 100 89 85 71 45 25 89 79 70 51
40 25
32
37 25
42
Chabot
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Farrell
Figure 10 demonstrates the similarities in voting behaviour between Councilors Farrell and Macleod, and is used as the second case study. Farrell and Macleod very often vote the same way (85%). Both councilors vote with Chabot, Demong, and Hodges less than half of the time. Farrell tends to vote more often with Pootmans and Stevenson, and Macleod tends to vote more often with Carra and Nenshi. Farrell and Macleod both vote very often with Pincott and Lowe.
FIGURE 10
How Councilors Farrell and Macleod vote versus the rest of council.
100 84 74 59 47 26 25 32 27 85 73 68 48 37 59 58 55 51 89 85 100 85 71 70
89 88
79 73
70 58
Farrell
Macleod
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Figure 11 demonstrates an overall similarity in how Councilors Jones, Keating and Mar vote, and is used as the third case study. Jones, Keating, and Mar tend to agree with each of the other council members around 50-70% of the time. Despite having similar outlooks regarding their fellow Councilors, these three individuals voting patterns are not necessarily similar. While they may agree and disagree with other Councilors on a similar number of votes, they do not not necessarily agree and disagree on the same votes.
FIGURE 11
Coalition Case study 3
How Councilors Jones, Keating, and Mar vote versus the rest of council.
100 100 70 62 59 71 56 49 71 58 55 70 59 51
100 70 67 78 70 64
62 60 59
63 56 52
62 55 45
63 59 55
68 63
68 62
66 55
63 62
63 58 52
Jones
Keating
Mar
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Figure 12 demonstrates that Carra, Colley-Urquhart, Farrell, Lowe, Macleod and Pincott appear to have closely shared agreement in regards to the rest of council, and is used as the fourth case study. There is a close overlap between these six council members. Colley-Urquhart is more inclined to agree with Demong or Chabot than the rest of the group (but still at less than 50%), and less inclined to agree with Pincott and Macleod (but still at 67% and 68% respectively). Carra is generally more supportive of Nenshi. They regularly vote together and against all others, including Nenshi, Jones, and Mar but especially against Chabot, Demong and Hodges.
FIGURE 12
Coalition Case study 4
How Councilors Carra, Colley-Urquhart, Farrell, Lowe, Macleod, and Pincott vote versus the rest of council.
100
100 78 73 68 67
63
100 89 85
74 73 55 62 59 58 55 52
100 89 85 81 78
71
100 88 85 84 68 71 70 70 66 63
100 89 88 81 79 67
81 79 77 73 67
73
59 55 49 47
84 79 74 71 63
40 36 26 25
32
47
38 37 32 27
48 40 38 37
56 55 52 51
59
70 66 64 63 62 58
Carra
Colley-Urquhart
Farrell
Lowe
Macleod
Pincott
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Figure 13 demonstrates significant commonality in how Councilors Chabot, Demong, and Hodges vote, and is used as the fifth case study. Chabot and Demong are more likely to agree with each other, but they are not as likely to agree with Hodges. Chabot, Demong, and Hodges vote against Carra, Colley-Urquhart, Farrell, Lowe, Macleod, and Pincott more than half the time. Hodges tends to be more likely to vote the same way as Nenshi (71%) than Chabot (58%) and Demong (56%).
FIGURE 13
Coalition Case study 5
How Councilors Chabot, Demong, and Hodges vote versus the rest of council.
100 100 85 71 58 56 68 55 38 32 47 40 38 85 62 37 32 25
100 71 63 62 37 36 48 27 26
68 62
59 56 55
55 49 45
40 32 25
52 47 42
58 52 51
Chabot
Demong
Hodges
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Figure 14 depicts how the remaining council members Mayor Nenshi, and Councilors Pootmans and Stevenson vote, and is used as the sixth case study. Similar to case study 3, these three individuals are not particularly more supportive of each other as a rule. In contrast to Pootmans and Stevenson, Nenshi tends not to vote the same way as Colley-Urquhart, Lowe, and especially Farrell (less than 50%). In contrast to Stevenson and a larger extent Nenshi, Pootmans tends to vote more often with Pincott, Macleod, Lowe, Farrell, and Carra, and against Chabot and Demong. In consideration of Figure 12, Pootmans votes would fit well with Carra, Colley-Urquhart, Farrell, Lowe, Macleod and Pincott.
FIGURE 14
Coalition Case study 6
How Mayor Nenshi, and Councilors Pootmans and Stevenson vote versus the rest of council.
100 81 73 66 79 70 47 71 58 52 78 70 60 67 64 62 77 62 49 73 59 58 70 67 59 77 64 55
100 100 71 62 71 56
62 56
67 63 49
56 51 42
58 52 47
Nenshi
Pootmans
Stevenson
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section D: SECRECY
Time spent in Camera
City Council met for a total of about 697 hours between November 2011 and the end of April 2013. Nearly a fifth (18.5%) of that time 129.5 hours spanning about 368 agenda items was conducted in camera: in secret and closed to the public. The majority of meetings (79%) were closed to the public for at least some portion. City Council made votes to move their deliberations in camera 96 times, notwithstanding votes to return to the chamber immediately after breaks. Of these instances, there was failed opposition to such moves 15 times (16%), and successful opposition once (1%). Occupy Calgary (2011-11-14 as an item of urgent business). Golf courses (various dates). Calgary Kart Racing Club (2011-12-19) A New Program for Low Income Children (2011-11-14). Airport tunnel (various dates) Composting (2013-04-15) Attainable homes (2011-09-19 as an item of urgent business) Personnel items/appointments/reviews (various dates) Auditors reports (various dates) Seed funding for the Calgary Centre for Performing Arts (2011-09-19)
Opposition to In Camera
Figure 15 depicts opposition to such moves by council member. Alderman Mar was most likely to oppose moves to chamber; if the move to chamber was opposed, he would be more likely to be opposing (9 times out of 16) than supporting it.
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FIGURE 15
Amount of times opposed to moving deliberations in camera, by council member.
Opposition to In Camera
9
25
FIGURE 16
Breakdown of topics of items discussed in camera, as classified by the Manning Foundation.
TOPICS IN CAMERA
Inter Municipal, Regional, Provi nci al 13% Appoi ntment, Personnel, Pa y 29%
Study, Revi ew 6% Ins urance, Legal 2% Uti l ities 2% Bus iness, Regulation 1% Ai rport 4% Innovate Ca lgary 2% Ci vi c Pa rtner, Community 2% Stra tegy, Pl an 4%
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FIGURE 17
Breakdowns of meetings and time spent by Council, in camera and out.
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FIGURE 18
Questions asked
Number of questions asked during Question Period, by council member.
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12
13
25
FIGURE 19
Breakdown of topics of items in Question Period, as classified by the Manning Foundation.
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LANGUAGE COMPLEXITY
As an experiment, we took a look at the complexity of language used for the questions asked by members of council during Question Period. Councilors Macleod, Demong and Hodges asked too few questions to incorporate into this analysis.
Nonetheless, they are a simple reminder that City Council must honour its own commitment to plain language.
METHODOLOGY
Figure 20 demonstrates two different ways to assess language: The Flesch-Kincaid Score assesses language composition in a positive light, or in terms of education level: describing it as high school, college, or college graduate level. The score corresponds with the required grade level of the audience. The Gunning Fog Index audits language complexity in a negative light, or in terms of confusability: a higher score relates to more complex (or foggy) language that is generally harder to comprehend and made of longer words with many syllables. Because this analysis is based off of small samples of speech, and largely depend on how many questions the Councilors asked over the period studied, these results may not be perfectly representative of the individuals speech.
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FIGURE 20
Flesch-Kincaid and Gunning Fog scores, by council member.
Language Analysis
12.5
12.6
13.2
13.5
13.9
11.4
9.6
9.7
10.7
11.4
11.6
12.2
12.5
13.8
14.3
15.6
F L ESCH-KI N CA ID GR A DE L EVEL
11.6
11.8
14
15.4
16.2
17.5
17.8
GU N N I N G F OG I N DEX
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FIGURE 21
Time away due to conflict
In minutes, time spent away from deliberations due to declaration of pecuniary interest, by council member
NENSH I
MAC L EOD
12
K EATI NG
174
STEVENSON
211
MAR
32
775
FIGURE 22
Breakdown of topics of reasons cited for declaration of pecuniary interest.
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section E: Attendance
There were collectively 31 official absences from Council meetings out of the 80 meetings studied. Usually, the missing council member was excused from attendance without reason by courtesy of Council, save for once when the council member absent was performing other council business. Council members were occasionally not present at the meeting for various durations, but not noted in the minutes to be officially be absent. This analysis is based upon what is noted in the official record at the end of each set of council minutes.
FIGURE 23
Number of Council Meetings missed, by Council Member
6 4 2 1 1 1 0 0 0
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FIGURE 24
Percentage scale attendance rate, by Council Member.
Attendance record
100
100
100
98.8
98.8
98.8
97.5
95
92.5
92.5
95
96.3
97.5
98.8
100
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Conclusions
Despite the inherent challenges, this pilot project has shown that it is possible to: Simplify and summarize, in a highly accessible way, the large amount of raw data being produced by Canadian council chambers. Generate a tentative report card focused on a specific issue, in this case, the level of taxes and spending. Produce robust statistical indexes of Councillor behaviour, performance, interactions, and voting positions. Use technology in order to better understand the substance of what is being discussed by City Council, both in public session and behind closed doors. Develop additional tools to enable voters to monitor the effectiveness of the representation they receive. The project will now aim to expand to tackle more policy issues and to other municipalities in Alberta and across Canada.
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Notes
1. For more information regarding the poll and its methodology please visit the Municipal Survey Report, hosted online at: http://www.manningfoundation.org/Docs/Municipal-Survey-Report.pdf 2. For an expanded digital version of this report containing database copies of all the votes studied, as well as the data used to build each of the 24 figures composing this report, please see: http://www.manningfoundation.org/ourwork 3. The following eighty general, special, organizational, and strategic meetings of council were used to generate this report: 2010-10-29. 2010-11-08. 2010-12-06. 2010-12-13, 2011-01-10. 2011-01-17. 2011-01-24. 2011-01-31, 2011-0207. 2011-02-14. 2011-02-15. 2011-03-01, 2011-03-07. 2011-03-21. 2011-04-05. 2011-04-11. 2011-04-18. 2011-05-03. 2011-05-09. 2011-05-16. 2011-05-20. 2011-06-07. 2011-06-13. 2011-06-14. 2011-06-20. 2011-06-28. 2011-07-04. 2011-07-25. 2011-09-12. 2011-09-19. 2011-09-27. 2011-10-03. 2011-10-24. 2011-11-07. 2011-11-14. 2011-11-21. 2011-1205. 2011-12-12. 2011-12-19, 2012-01-09. 2012-01-23. 2012-01-30. 2012-02-06, 2012-02-27. 2012-03-12. 2012-03-19. 2012-04-09, 2012-04-23. 2012-05-07. 2012-05-14. 2012-05-28, 2012-06-11. 2012-06-25, 2012-07-16. 2012-07-24, 2012-07-30. 2012-09-10, 2012-09-17. 2012-09-24, 2012-10-01. 2012-10-05, 2012-10-15, 2012-10-16, 2012-10-19, 2012-10-22, 2012-11-26, 2012-12-03, 2012-12-10, 2012-12-17, 2013-01-14, 2013-01-28, 2013-02-04, 2013-02-11, 201302-25, 2013-03-04, 2013-03-18, 2013-03-19, 2013-04-08, 2013-04-15, and 2013-04-22. 4. Records of meetings of Council and its Committees that have occurred since October 31, 2010 can be viewed on ELMS, the City of Calgarys Electronic Legislative Management Solution, hosted online at: http://agendaminutes. calgary.ca/sirepub/meetresults.aspx
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UPCOMING Reports
The Manning Foundation is building intellectual capital for municipal governance in five streams of public policy enquiry. Each stream will include a series of public policy reports designed to stimulate new thought about the role of municipal government in society. Manning Foundation research reports are placed in the public domain via the Foundations website and are available for review, debate, criticism and support by Canadians regardless of their political affiliation.
1. Organic Cities
An enquiry into how cities grow and what role government should play in regulating growth and providing infrastructure, with the goals of economic efficiency and liveability. Much of the debate around municipal development is based around what urban forms are desirable, with sprawlers and smart growthers alike arguing that land-use regulation and infrastructure provision should favour their optimal urban form. The Organic Cities project takes a different perspective: that what is important is not the urban form that emerges, but the processes that are in place, particularly the role of government. On this view, it is more important that the market is left free to serve consumer demand, with the important constraints being property rights and the real costs of infrastructure provision rather than land-use regulations. Upcoming reports include enquiries into the economics of consultation processes so in vogue at city halls across the country and the effects of future advances in vehicle technology.
2. Appropriate Activities
An enquiry into the optimal role of government, with a positive analysis of what municipal government currently does and a normative analysis of what roles government is best equipped to fill. These roles broadly divide into an ownership role, a regulatory role, and an expenditure role each of which can be over or under played. This stream builds on concepts such as market failure, public goods and subsidiarity to identify which activities municipal government does or does not have a comparative advantage over other levels of government. Upcoming reports include enquiries into the proper role of municipal government as a regulator and as a distributor of wealth.
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3. Citizen Sovereignty
An enquiry into how well citizens can hold government to account, including monitoring of its activities and protecting their natural rights. This stream investigates standards of municipal accounting and performance reporting, open government, public safety and intergenerational equity. It considers concepts such as open government and open data, and property rights. Future reports in this series include enquiries into the quality of performance reporting, intergenerational equity with respect to municipal government and open data projects.
MANNING FOUNDATION FOR DEMOCRATIC EDUCATION www.manningfoundation.org info@manningfoundation.org 403.536.8585 514 11 Ave SW Calgary, AB T2R 0C8 40
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