Chapter 2 Estimation

2 ESTIMATION
Objectives
After studying this chapter you should

be able to calculate confidence intervals for the mean of a

normal distribution with unknown variance;

be able to calculate confidence intervals for the variance and

standard deviation of a normal distribution;

be able to calculate approximate confidence intervals for a

proportion;

be able to calculate approximate confidence intervals for the

mean of a Poisson distribution.

2.0

Introduction

In Chapter 9 of the text Statistics the idea of a confidence interval

was introduced. Confidence intervals are used when we want to
estimate a population parameter from a sample. The parameter
may be estimated by a single value (a point estimate) but it is
usually preferable to estimate it by an interval which will give
some indication of the amount of uncertainty attached to the
estimate. In Statistics, estimation of the mean of a normal
population with known standard deviation was considered.
If x is the mean of a random sample of size n from a normal
distribution with mean and standard deviation there is a
probability of 0.95 that x lies within 1.96

of . If this is the
n

case the interval

x 1.96

will contain . This interval is called a 95% confidence interval

for .
If further samples of size n were taken and the calculation
repeated, different intervals would be calculated. 95% of these
intervals would contain , but 5% would not.
Note: although is unknown, it does not vary, it is the intervals
that vary. It is possible to calculate 99% or even 99.9%
confidence intervals which would be wider than the 95% interval
but it is not possible to calculate 100% confidence intervals.

0.025

1.96

0.025

0.95

+ 1.96

21

Chapter 2 Estimation

Example
The length of time a bus takes to travel from Chorlton to
All
Saints in the morning rush hour is normally distributed with
standard deviation 4 minutes. A random sample of 6 journeys
took 23, 19, 25, 34, 24 and 28 minutes. Find
(i)

a 95% confidence interval for the mean journey time,

(ii) a 99% confidence interval for the mean journey time.

Solution
The sample mean is
(i)

153
= 25.5
6

0.025

95% confidence interval is

25.5 1.96

4
6

1.96

i.e 25.5 3.20 or ( 22.3, 28. 7)

(ii) 99% confidence interval is

4
i.e. 25.5 4.21 or ( 21.3, 29. 7)
25.5 2.576
6

0.005

2.576

2.1

Confidence interval for mean:

standard deviation unknown

The example above of the bus journey times is somewhat

unrealistic. How was it known that the bus journey times were
normally distributed with a standard deviation of 4 minutes? If so
much was known about the distribution how was it that the mean
was unknown?
Probably the journey times for similar journeys had been studied
and the standard deviation found to be about four minutes. The
statement that the standard deviation was 'known' was probably
something of an exaggeration. The same argument applies to the
normal distribution. However, as you are dealing with the sample
mean, no great error will result from assuming a normal
distribution unless the distribution is extremely unusual.
If the standard deviation is completely unknown or if you do not
wish to accept a rough estimate, there is still a way forward.
Provided the sample has more than one member, an estimate of
the standard deviation may be made from the sample.

In the case of the bus journey times = 5.09 , this is most easily
22

0.025

0.95

1.96

0.99

0.005

2.576

Chapter 2 Estimation

found by using the n 1 or sn 1 button on a calculator.

Alternatively the formula

2 =

( x x )2
(n 1)

or equivalent can be used.

n
was used. Now the known standard deviation will be replaced by

an estimate . There will be some uncertainty in this estimate

since, if you started again and took a different sample of the same

size, the estimate of would almost certainly be different. It

therefore seems reasonable that to allow for this extra uncertainty,
the interval should be widened by increasing the figure of 1.96
which came from tables of the normal distribution. How much you
need to increase it by has fortunately been calculated for you and is
tabulated in tables of the t distribution.
For a 95% confidence interval, known, the formula x 1.96

The required value of t will, however, depend on the sample size. If

you had a random sample of 1000 bus journeys then you would be
able to make a very accurate estimate of the population standard
deviation and there would be no real need to change the
figure 1.96. However, in this case with a sample of 6 there is quite a
lot of uncertainty in the estimate and you may need to make quite a
large change. If the sample had been of size 2 there would have
been a huge amount of uncertainty and a very large change may have
been necessary.
The amount of uncertainty is measured by the degrees of freedom.
Degrees of freedom are a concept related to the mathematical
definition of the chi-squared distribution. For your purposes they
may be thought of as a measure of the number of pieces of
information you have to estimate the standard deviation. It is
impossible to use a sample of size one to make an estimate of the
standard deviation. The standard deviation is a measure of spread
and one item can tell nothing about how spread out a distribution is.
A sample of size two gives one piece of information about the spread
and a sample of size three gives two pieces. In general, a sample of
size n gives n 1 pieces of information and an estimate made from
such a sample is said to be based on n 1 degrees of freedom.
In the example there were 6 bus journey times and so the estimate of
5.09 for the standard deviation is based on 5 degrees of freedom.
0.025
To find a 95% confidence interval you therefore require the
upper and lower 0.025 tails of the t distribution with 5 degrees
of freedom, denoted t 5 . As with the standard normal distribution,
the t distribution is symmetrical about zero and the required values 2.571
are 2.571.

0.95

0.025

2.571

t5

23

Chapter 2 Estimation

A 95% confidence interval for the mean, making no assumption

about the standard deviation, is given by
5.09
i.e. 25.5 5.34 or ( 20.2, 30.8)
6
Note: For the use of the t distribution to be valid the data must be
normally distributed. However, small deviations from
normality will not seriously affect the results.
25.5 2.571

In general, the formula is

x tn 1

Example
The resistances (in ohms) of a random sample from a batch of
resistors were
2314 2456 2389 2361 2360 2332 2402
Assuming that the sample is from a normal distribution calculate
(i)

a 95% confidence interval for the mean,

(ii) a 90% confidence interval for the mean.

Solution

The data gives x = 2373. 4 and = 47. 4.

(i)

t6,

0.025

= 2. 447, so the
0.025

0.025

0.95

95% confidence interval for the mean is given by

2373. 4 2. 447

2.447

t6

2373. 4 43.8

(2330, 2417) .

(ii) t6,

0.05

= 1.943, giving

90% confidence interval for the mean as

2373. 4 1.943

47. 4
7

2373. 4 34.8

24

2.447

47. 4
7

(2339, 2408) .

0.05

0.05

0.90

1.943

1.943

t6

Chapter 2 Estimation

Activity 1
The following data are random observations from a normal
distribution with mean 10.
6.86 11.53 12.41 12.08 12.80 10.42
7.59
10.76

8.99

9.55

8.23

5.84

5.96 10.14 10.12 10.22 10.42 11.83

8.73 11.57 11.83

9.93 10.63

9.45 13.40 10.78

7.94 12.44 12.49

9.63

13.44 11.85 13.62 13.24 12.56 10.56 10.77

8.51 11.65

9.36

8.12 11.88 11.68

7.36

7.07 10.04

9.55 12.97 10.85

8.58

8.27

9.43

8.80

7.66 13.16

8.34

7.12

8.30 10.01 10.29 11.78 13.18

8.18

9.91

9.62

7.48

8.50 10.53 13.06

6.74

9.29

6.01 12.02 10.04 10.64

9.22 11.36

3.49 13.04 13.16 11.48

10.00 12.27 14.18

9.07

6.05

9.96

7.51 10.19

9.07

9.74

8.23

9.45

9.68 10.64

8.34 11.61
8.91

5.41

9.72 11.24 12.84

8.52 10.66 14.06

6.77 10.76

8.10 10.33

6.10 10.78

8.27

8.52

7.42

9.37 10.44 11.81

9.87

9.78 10.44

4.65

5.37

10.82 10.10

7.68 11.87

7.49

9.99

8.54

8.83

15.00 10.02

9.41

8.16

9.54

9.32

6.15 12.59 12.24 13.02

9.80

8.61

8.92

8.86 11.92 13.01 14.11 11.57 10.46 11.27

8.35

8.95

9.12

7.20 11.20 13.42 13.46 12.80 10.99 10.33

14.31

7.72

9.88 10.57 13.20 11.90

8.48

9.41

7.76 10.35

9.26 14.29

8.35

6.80

8.83 10.72 10.02 11.80 13.56 13.00 10.79

7.51

8.15 10.14

8.78

11.02

9.45 11.48 10.96

8.49

9.82

8.97

7.68

9.86

7.74 11.81

9.87 10.77

8.29

9.18

Starting at any point in the table take a sample of size 3 and

calculate . Calculate an 80% confidence interval for the

mean using the t-distribution.
Now take the next sample of 3 and repeat the calculation. Carry
on until you have calculated at least 20, and preferably more,
intervals. If possible work with a group so that the labour of
calculation may be divided up between you.
What proportion of your intervals contain 10, the population
mean? Is this approximately the proportion you would have
expected?

25

Chapter 2 Estimation

Recalculate the intervals using z-values, i.e. calculate, for each

sample

x 1.282
.
3
What proportion of these intervals contain 10? Which set of
intervals gave results more in line with your expectations?

Exercise 2A
1. Samples of a high temperature lubricant were
tested and the temperature ( C) at which they
ceased to be effective were as follows:
235 242 235 240 237 234 239 237

Calculate a 95% confidence for the mean.

2. In a study aimed at improving the design of bus
cabs the functional arm reach of a random sample
of bus drivers was measured. The results, in mm,
were as follows:

3. As part of a research study on pattern recognition

a random sample of students on a design course
were asked to examine a picture and see if they
could recognise a word. The picture contained
the word 'technology' written backwards. The
times, in seconds, taken to recognise the word
were as follows:
55, 28, 79, 54, 87, 61, 62, 68, 38

Calculate

701, 642, 651, 700, 672, 674, 656, 649

(a) a 95% confidence interval for the mean,

Calculate a 95% confidence interval for the mean.

(b) a 99% confidence interval for the mean.

2.2

Confidence interval for the

standard deviation and the
variance

In Section 2.1 the standard deviation of a population of bus

journey times was estimated from a sample of bus journey times.
As was stated, the estimate is subject to uncertainty as, if
another sample of the same size were taken, a different estimate
would almost certainly result. Provided the data comes from a
normal distribution it is possible to estimate the population
standard deviation with a confidence interval rather than using a
single figure (or point estimate).
To do this you need to use the fact that for a sample of size n
from a normal distribution

( x x )2
2

is distributed as
2
n 1 (chi-squared with n 1 degrees of freedom).

26

Chapter 2 Estimation

( x x ) is equal to ( n 1) 2 and this is usually the easiest

way of calculating it.
2

In the case of the bus journey times a sample of size 6 gave

2 = 5.09 2 = 25.9 .
If you find the upper and lower 0.025 tails of 2 , there will be
a probability of 0.95 that

( x x )2
2

will lie between them.

0.025

0.831

0.025

0.95

12.833

A 95% confidence interval for the variance is defined by

0.831 < 5

25.9
< 12.833
2

1
< 0.0990965
2

0.006415 <

10.09 < 2 < 155.9

and this is a 95% confidence interval for the variance.

Although the variance has a very important role to play in the
mathematical theory of statistics, for practical applications the
standard deviation is a much more useful statistic. A 95%
confidence interval for the standard deviation is found simply
by taking the square root of the two limits,
i.e.

3.2 < < 12.5

Note that the interval is not symmetrical about the point

estimate which was 5.09. Clearly the interval would not make
sense unless it contained the point estimate and this is a useful
check on the calculation. However, as the standard deviation
cannot be negative but has no upper limit, it would not be
expected that the point would lie exactly in the middle.
Is it possible to calculate 100% confidence interval for the
standard deviation?

Example
In processing grain in the brewing industry, the percentage
extract recovered is measured. A particular brewery introduces
a new source of grain and the percentage extract on eleven
separate days is as follows:
95.2, 93.1, 93.5, 95.9, 94.0, 92.0, 94.4, 93.2, 95.5, 92.3, 95.4

27

Chapter 2 Estimation

(a) Regarding the sample as a random sample from a normal

population, calculate
(i)

a 90% confidence interval for the population variance,

(ii) a 90% confidence interval for the population mean.

(b) The previous source of grain gave daily percentage extract
figures which were normally distributed with mean 94.2 and
standard deviation 2.5. A high percentage extract is desirable
but the brewery manager also requires as little day to day
variation as possible. Without further calculation, compare
the two sources of grain.
(AEB)
Solution
For this data
n = 11

x = 94.045

= 1.34117

(a)
(i)

90% confidence interval for variance is given by

3.94 < 10

1.341172
< 18.307
2

0.05

0.05
0.90

1
0.2190 < 2 < 1.0178

0.98 < 2 < 4.57

(ii) 90% confidence interval for mean is given by

1.34117
94.045 1.812
11

(93.31, 94. 78)

(b) The mean of the previous source of grain was 94.2. This lies
in the middle of the confidence interval calculated for the
mean of the new source of grain. There is therefore no
evidence that the means differ.
The standard deviation of the previous source of grain was
2.5 and hence the variance was 2.52 = 6.25 .
This is above the upper limit of the confidence interval for
the variance of the new source of grain. This suggests that
the new source gives less variability.
Combining these two conclusions suggests that the new
source is preferable to the previous source.

28

18.307

0.05

94.045 0. 733

3.440
3.940

0.05
0.90

1.812

1.812

t10

Chapter 2 Estimation

Activity 2
Take a sample of size 6 from the data in Activity 1. Calculate
an 80% confidence interval for the standard deviation.
Take further samples of size 6 and repeat the calculation at least
20 times. Work in a group, if possible, so that the calculations
may be shared.
The data in Activity 1 came from a normal distribution with
standard deviation 2. What proportion of your intervals contain
the value 2? Is this proportion similar to the proportion you
would expect?

Exercise 2B
1. Using the data in Questions 1, 2 and 3 of
Exercise 2A, calculate 95% confidence intervals
for the population standard deviations.
2. The external diameter, in cm, of a random
sample of piston rings produced on a particular
machine were
9.91, 9.89, 10.12, 9.98, 10.09,
9.81, 10.01, 9.99, 9.86

Calculate a 95% confidence interval for the

standard deviation. Assume normal
distribution.
Do your results support the manufacturer's claim
that the standard deviation is 0.06 cm?
3. The vitamin C content of a random sample of 5
lemons was measured. The results in 'mg per
10 g' were

Assuming a normal distribution calculate a 95%

confidence interval for the standard deviation.
A greengrocer claimed that the method of
determining the vitamin C content was extremely
unreliable and that the observed variability was
more due to errors in the determination rather
than to actual differences between lemons. To
check this 7 independent determinations were
made of the vitamin C content of the same
lemon. The results were as follows
1.21, 1.22, 1.21, 1.23, 1.24, 1.23, 1.22

Assuming a normal distribution, calculate a 90%

confidence interval for the standard deviation of
the determinations. Does your result support the
greengrocer's claim?

1.04, 0.95, 0.63, 1.62, 1.11

2.3

Confidence interval for

proportions

An insurance company receives a large number of claims for

storm damage. A manager wished to estimate the proportion of
these claims which were for less than 500. He examined a
random sample of 120 claims and found that 18 of them were
for less than 500.
Obviously the best estimate of the proportion of all claims
18
which are for less than 500 is
= 0.15 .
120

29

Chapter 2 Estimation

To calculate a confidence interval for the proportion we must

observe that, r, the number of claims for less than 500 in a
sample of size n, will be an observation from a binomial
distribution. This will have mean np and variance np (1 p ).
From Statistics you know that a binomial distribution can be
approximated by a normal distribution if n is large and np is
reasonably large.
In this case n = 120 and p is estimated by 0.15. Hence r can be
approximated by a normal distribution with variance

120 0.15 0.85 = 15.3 and standard deviation 15.3 = 3.912 .

The proportion of claims for less than 500 is estimated by

r
.
n

This has variance

np(1 p) p(1 p )
.
=
n2
n
In this case the proportion can be estimated by a normal
distribution with variance
0.15 0.85
= 0.0010625
120

and standard deviation 0.03260.

Hence an approximate 95% confidence interval for the
proportion is given by
0.15 1.96 0.0326

0.15 0.064

( 0.086, 0.214) .

In general, the formula for an approximate confidence interval

for a proportion is

pz

p(1 p)
n

where p is an estimate of p and z is the appropriate value from

normal tables to give the required percentage confidence
interval.
Note this formula is valid only if the parameters of the binomial
distribution make it reasonable to use the normal approximation.

30

Chapter 2 Estimation

Example
Employees of a firm carrying out motorway maintenance are
issued with brightly coloured waterproof jackets. These come
in five different sizes numbered 1 to 5. The last 40 jackets
issued were of the following sizes
2 3 3 1 3 3 2 4 3 2 5 4 1 2 3 3 2 4 5 3
2 4 4 1 5 3 3 2 3 3 1 3 4 3 3 2 5 1 4 4

(a) (i)

Find the proportion in the sample requiring size 3.

Assuming the 40 employees can be regarded as a
random sample of all employees, calculate an
approximate 95% confidence interval for the
proportion, p, of all employees requiring size 3.

(ii) Give two reasons why the confidence interval

calculated in (i) is approximate rather than exact.

(b) Your estimate of p is p .

(i)

What percentage is associated with the approximate

confidence interval p 0.1?

(ii) How large a sample would be needed to obtain an

approximate 95% confidence interval of the form

(AEB)
p 0.1?
Solution
(a) (i) There are 15 out of 40 requiring size 3, a proportion of
15
= 0.375 . An approximate 95% confidence interval
40
is given by

0.375 1.96

0.375 0.625
40

0.375 0.150

(0.225, 0.525) .

(ii) The confidence interval is approximate because an

estimate of p is used (the true value is unknown) and
because the normal distribution is used as an
approximation to the binomial distribution.
(b) (i)

Confidence interval is given by

pz

p(1 p)
.
n

Hence if interval is p 0.1 ,

0.1 = z

0.375 0.625
40
31

Chapter 2 Estimation

z = 1.306 ;

i.e.

this is (1 2 0.096 ) 100 = 81 per cent confidence

interval.

0.9042

0.0958

(ii) 95% confidence interval

1.306

0.375.625
.
n

p 1.96

If this is p 0.1 ,

0.1 = 1.96

0.375.625
n

n = 9. 4888

n = 90.04

Sample of size 90 needed.

Exercise 2C
1. When a random sample of 80 climbing ropes
were subjected to a strain equivalent to the
weight of ten climbers, 12 of them broke.
Calculate a 95% confidence interval for the
proportion of ropes which would break under this
strain.

3. A large civil engineering firm issues every new

employee with a safety helmet. Five different
sizes are available numbered 1 to 5. A random
sample of 90 employees required the following
sizes
2

2. Data from a completed questionnaire were

entered into a computer as a series of binary
digits (i.e. each digit was 0 or 1). A check on
1000 digits revealed errors in 19 of them.
Assuming the probability of an error is the same
for each digit entered, calculate a 90%
confidence interval for the proportion of digits
where an error will be made.

Calculate an approximate 90% confidence

interval for the proportion of employees
requiring size 2.
(AEB)

2.4

Confidence interval for the

mean of a Poisson
distribution

In an area of moorland, plants of a certain variety are known to

be distributed at random at a constant average rate; that is, they
are distributed according to the Poisson distribution. A
biologist counts the number of plants in a randomly chosen
square of area 10 m2 and finds 142 plants. An approximate
confidence interval for the average number of plants in a square
32

Chapter 2 Estimation

of area 10 m2 can be found by approximating the Poisson

distribution by a normal distribution with mean 142 and
standard deviation 142 . This approximation is valid since the
mean is large.
In this case a 95% approximate confidence interval is given by

142 1.96 142

142 23. 4

(118.6, 165. 4) .

In general the formula is

mz m

where m is the observed value and z is the appropriate value

from normal tables to give the required percentage confidence
interval. Remember this is only valid if the mean is reasonably
large so that the normal distribution gives a good
approximation.
If a confidence interval for the mean number of plants per m2
was required, the interval calculated for 10 m2 would be divided
by 10. The result would be 14.2 2.34 or (11.86, 16.54 ) .
The calculation could have been carried out by finding the mean
number of plants observed in 10 areas of 1m2 and basing the
calculation on this. However, there would be no advantage in
this as it would give the identical answer.
For example in this case, if 10 separate m 2 had been observed,
the mean number of plants in each square would be 14.2 and the
distribution would be approximated by normal mean 14.2
standard deviation 14.2 . Since you now have the mean of 10
observations the calculation for a 95% interval would be

14.2 1.96

14.2
10

14.2 2.34 , as before.

It is probably always easiest to work in terms of the total

number of events observed and then scale the final answer as
required.
Why is a confidence interval calculated for the mean of a
Poisson distribution only an approximation?

33

Chapter 2 Estimation

Exercise 2D
1. Cars pass a point on a motorway during the
morning rush hour at random at a constant
average rate. An observer counts 212 cars
passing during a 5 minute interval. Calculate

3. The number of a certain type of organism

suspended in a liquid follows a Poisson
distribution. 10 cc of the liquid are found to
contain 35 of the organisms. Calculate

(a) a 95% confidence interval for the mean

number of cars passing in a 5 minute interval,

(a) a 90% confidence interval for the mean

number of organisms per 10 cc,

(b) a 95% confidence interval for the mean

number of cars passing in a one minute
interval,

(b) a 95% confidence interval for the mean

number of organisms per cc,

(c) a 90% confidence interval for the mean

number of cars passing in a two minute
interval,
(d) a 99% confidence interval for the mean
number of cars passing in an hour.

(c) a 99% confidence interval for the mean

number of organisms per 100 cc.
A further 10 cc of the liquid were examined and
found to contain 26 of the organisms. Modify
your answers to (a), (b) and (c) to take account
of this additional data.

2. The number of times a machine needs resetting

on a night shift follows a Poisson distribution.
On three randomly selected nights it was reset 9,
5 and 11 times. Calculate a 95% confidence
interval for the average number of times it needs
resetting per night.

2.5

Miscellaneous Exercises

1. The development engineer of a company making

razors records the time it takes him to shave, on
seven mornings, using a standard razor made by
the company. The times, in seconds, were
217, 210, 254, 237, 232, 228, 243

Assuming that this may be regarded as a random

sample from a normal distribution, calculate a
95% confidence interval for the mean.
(AEB)
2. A car insurance company found that the average
amount it was paying on bodywork claims was
435 with a standard deviation of 141. The next
eight bodywork claims were subjected to extra
investigation before payment was agreed. The
payments, in pounds, on these claims were
48, 109, 237, 192, 403, 98, 264, 68.

(a) Assuming the data can be regarded as a

random sample from a normal distribution,
calculate a 90% confidence interval for
(i) the mean payment after extra
investigation,
(ii) the standard deviation of the payments
after extra investigation.

34

(b) Explain to the manager whether or not your

results suggest that the distribution of payments
has changed after special investigation and
comment on her suggestion that in future all
claims over 900 should be subject to special
investigation.
(AEB)
3. A car manufacturer purchases large quantities of
a particular component. Tests have shown that
3% fail to function and that, of those that do
function, the mean working life is 2400
hourswith a standard deviation of 650 hours.
The manufacturer is particularly concerned with
the large variability and the supplier undertakes
to improve the design so that the standard
deviation is reduced to 300 hours.
(a) A random sample of 310 of the new
components contained 12 which failed to
function. Calculate an approximate 95%
confidence interval for the proportion which
fail to function.
(b) A random sample of 3 new components tested
had working lives of 2730, 3120 and 2300
hours.

Chapter 2 Estimation

Assuming that the claim of a standard

deviation of 300 hours is correct and that the
lives of the new components follow a normal
distribution, calculate
(i) a 90% confidence interval for the
mean working life of the components,
(ii) how many components it would be
necessary to test to make the width of
a 90% confidence interval for the
mean just less than 100 hours.
(c) Lives of components commonly follow a
distribution that is not normal. If the
assumption of normality is invalid in this
case, comment briefly on the amount of
uncertainty in your answers to (b)(i) and
(b)(ii).
(d) Using all the information available, compare
the two designs and recommend which one
should be used.
(AEB)
4. The resistances (in ohms) of a sample from a
batch of resistors were
2314, 2456, 2389, 2361, 2360, 2332, 2402.

Assuming that the sample is from a normal

distribution,
(a) Calculate a 90% confidence interval for the
standard deviation of the batch.
Past experience suggests that the standard
deviation, , is 35 ohms.
(b) Calculate a 95% confidence interval for the
mean resistance of the batch
(i) assuming = 35 ,
(ii) making no assumption about the
standard deviation.
(c) Compare the merits of the confidence
intervals calculated in (b).
(AEB)
5. Packets of baking powder have a nominal weight
of 200 g. The distribution of weights is normal
and the standard deviation is 7 g. Average
quantity system legislation states that, if the
nominal weight is 200 g,
(i)

the average weight must be at least

200 g,

(ii) not more than 2.5% of packages

may weigh less than 191 g,
(iii) not more than 1 in 1000 packages may
weigh less than 182 g.
A random sample of 30 packages had the
following weights:

(a) Calculate a 95% confidence interval for the

mean weight.
(b) Find the proportion of packets in the sample
weighing less than 191 g and use your result
to calculate an approximate 95% confidence
interval for the proportion of all packets
weighing less than 191 g.
(c) Assuming that the mean weight is at the lower
limit of the interval calculated in (a), what
proportion of packets would weigh less than
182 g?
(d) Discuss the suitability of the packets from the
point of view of the average quantity system.
A simple adjustment will change the mean
weight of future packages. Changing the
standard deviation is possible but very
expensive. Without carrying out any further
calculations, discuss any adjustments you
might recommend.
(AEB)
6. A car manufacturer introduces a new method of
assembling a new component. The old method
had a mean assembly time of 42 minutes with a
standard deviation of 4 minutes. The
manufacturer would like the assembly time to be
as short as possible and to have as little
variation as possible. He expects the new
method to have a smaller mean but to leave the
variability unchanged. A random sample of
assembly times, in minutes, taken after the new
method had become established was
27, 19, 68, 41, 17, 52, 35, 72, 38.

A statistician glanced at the data and said she

thought the variability had increased.
(a) Suggest why she said this.
(b) Assuming the data may be regarded as a
random sample from a normal distribution,
calculate a 95% confidence interval for the
standard deviation. Does this confirm the
statisticians claim or not?
(c) Calculate a 90% confidence interval for the
mean using a method which is appropriate in
the light of your answer to (b).
(d) Comment on the suitability of the new
process.
(AEB)
7. Stud anchors are used in the construction
industry. Samples are tested by embedding them
in concrete and applying a steadily increasing
load until the stud fails.
(a) A sample of 6 tests gave the following
maximum loads in kN

218 207 214 189 211 206 203 217 183 186

27.0, 30.5, 28.0, 23.0, 27.5, 26.5

219 213 207 214 203 204 195 197 213 212

Assuming a normal distribution for maximum

loads, find 95% confidence intervals for
(i) the mean,
(ii) the standard deviation.

188 221 217 184 186 216 198 211 216 200

35

Chapter 2 Estimation

(b) If the mean was at the lower end and the

standard deviation at the upper end of the
confidence intervals calculated in (a), find
the value of k which the maximum load
would exceed with probability 0.99.
Safety regulations state that the greatest load
that may be applied under working conditions
is

( x 2 )

where x is the mean and 2 is

3
the unbiased estimate of variance calculated
from a sample of 6 tests. Calculate this
figure for the data above and comment on the
adequacy of this regulation in these
circumstances.
(AEB)

8. A campaign to combat the economic devastation

caused to coalfield communities by pit closures
employed a researcher. The campaign organisers
wished to know the proportion of redundant
miners who were able to find alternative
employment within a year of becoming
redundant.
(a) The researcher found that the probability of a
redundant miner visited at home refusing to
answer a questionnaire is 0.2.
What is the probability that on a day when he
visits twelve redundant miners at home
(i) 3 or fewer will refuse to answer the
questionnaire,
(ii) exactly 3 will refuse to answer the
questionnaire,
(iii) at least 10 will agree to answer the
questionnaire?
(b) The researcher decided to try a postal survey
and as a pilot scheme sent out 70
questionnaires to randomly selected
redundant miners. There were 26 completed
questionnaires returned. Calculate an
approximate 95% confidence interval for the
proportion of redundant miners who would
return a completed questionnaire.

36

(c) Of the 26 who replied, 10 had obtained

employment. Of all redundant miners who
would reply to a questionnaire, a proportion
p have obtained emplyment. Approximately
how many replies would be necessary to
obtain 95% confidence interval of width 0.1
for p?
(d) Using the results of (b) and (c) estimate
approximately how many letters should be
sent out to give a high probability of
obtaining sufficient replies to calculate the
confidence interval in (c). Explain your
answer.
(AEB)
9. It is known that repeated weighings of the same
object on a particular chemical balance give
readings which are normally distributed with
mean equal to the mass of the object. Past
esperience suggests that the standard deviation,
, is 0.25 mg. Seven repeated weighings gave
the following readings (mg).
19.3, 19.5, 19.1, 19.0, 19.8, 19.7, 19.4

(a) Use the data to calculate a 95% confidence

interval for .
(b) Calculate a 95% confidence interval for the
mass of the object assuming = 25 mg.
(c) Calculate 95% confidence interval for the
mass of the object, making no assumption
about , and using only data from the
sample.
(d) Give two reasons for preferring the
confidence interval calculated in (b) to that
calculated in (c).