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    Market Outlook Oct 2013

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    Market Outlook Oct 2013

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    Market Outlook Oct 2013

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    Market Outlook Oct 2013

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    Market Outlook Oct 2013

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    130 views4 pages

    Market Outlook Oct 2013

    Uploaded by

    eliforu
    Market Outlook Oct 2013

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 4

    ROBIN MESCH ASSOCIATES

    RobinMesch.com Contact@RobinMesch.com 503.224.9033

    Mesch Market Outlook


    Edition: October 2013
    Reading the Language of the Market
    About Robin Mesch: Robin Mesch, President of Robin Mesch Associates (RMA) and Mesch Capital Management (MCM), is a leading market strategist, pioneer and educator in the field of technical analysis and market theory. Robin has developed a distinct body of market analytics and proprietary trading methodologies that empower portfolio managers and professional traders worldwide to consistently maximize profitability. Her advice and market strategies are incorporated into financial portfolios by some of the leading investment firms and trading houses. MCM Portfolio Consulting: MCM Portfolio Consulting services assist investment firms, fund managers and financial advisers in optimizing their portfolios using the MCM suite of proprietary analytical filters. Utilizing proprietary technology and unique data analytics, MCM offers a superior technical filter to help construct and refine any investment strategy. MCMs portfolio consulting services and expertise include equity selection, asset allocation, portfolio balancing and construction, in addition to customized technical overlay and filtering options. RMA's Software & Analytics: RMA's Software & Analytics are a sophisticated suite of decision support tools that organize market data to reveal the underlying psychology driving the auction process. These unique trading analytics and data display formats tap into the fundamentals of the auction process to capture the negotiation of value through the usage of price over time. Through multi-dimensional market models and custom indicators, the RMA Software bridges fundamental and technical approaches to assist the professional trader and investor in identifying and objectifying key areas of support and resistance, target expectations, performance demands and stops based on market structure rather than price. RMA's suite of proprietary indicators combined with personalized training and support are designed to build the traders capacity to create sound scenarios and strategies they can execute with confidence.

    "My mission is to help you develop a comprehensive literacy in the language of the market that empowers you to trade effectively and profitably.

    The charts included in this report are Price Usage charts which depict the usage of a given price over time. The vertical left axis represents price, while the horizontal axis represents time. Price Usage charts display where the market has used price, thus accepting - or rejecting - value. The result of this market auction process are Bell Curve shaped composite Profiles, which indicate phases of development and create a top and bottom of perceived value in the market.
    c

    Copyright 20132013 Mesch Capital Inc. All Rights Reserved. This isuse forof the userecipient(s) of the intended recipient(s) and confidential and privileged information. Copyright Mesch CapitalManagement, Management, Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material ismaterial for the sole the sole intended and contains confidential and contains privileged information. Any unauthorized reproduction, review, use, disclosure, or distribution is strictly prohibited. Any unauthorized reproduction, review, use, disclosure, or Reserved. distribution is strictly prohibited. Copyright 2013 Mesch Capital Management, Inc. All Rights This material is for the sole use of the intended recipient(s) and contains confidential and privileged information.
    Any unauthorized reproduction, review, use, disclosure, or distribution is strictly prohibited.

    Gold (Dec 13)

    Mesch Market Outlook October 2013


    Longer-Term Context

    1550 1550

    1430 1250

    1365

    1100

    1250

    915

    1100

    March 2007 February 2013

    Feb. April 2013

    April October 1st 2013

    September 2006 Oct. 1st 2013

    Weve been short this market since our August commentary against 1370-1380. While we suffered some initial adversity, we held to our Bearish bias coming into September anticipating the eventual decline toward 1315 or 1275-1250. We were confident that this pullback had a good chance of occurring as long as 1) the market did not push back above 1430 and 2) Bears could trigger a breakdown of 1365. September in fact put in a low of 1291, and as of this writing, the market is taking out the September lows and potentially heading toward our next downside target of 1250 or lower. We would book profits on a portion of the trade at 1265 this month and move stops above 1350 to lock in profits. The long term Profile allows for a steeper decline toward 915 into next year and being short from 1370-1380 has you well-positioned for this break This is a trade to continue to manage from above in attempt to take advantage Copyright 2013 Mesch Capital Management, Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material is for the sole use of the intended recipient(s) and contains confidential and privileged information. of this opportunity. Any unauthorized reproduction, review, use, disclosure, or distribution is strictly prohibited.

    E-Mini S&P 500 (Dec 13)


    1710 1690

    Mesch Market Outlook October 2013


    Shorter-Term Context

    1710

    1690 1630

    1575 1630 1530

    1450 1575

    October 2005 June 2012

    June-Dec.2012

    Jan. Oct. 1st 2013

    Feb. 25th June 24th

    June 24th Oct. 1st

    We came into last month with a strong Bearish bias but our breakdown scenario failed to materialize. The question now is whether we were early or just plain wrong. If we keep our focus on market structure and not price volatility, last months market activity did little to alter our bearish bias and for the month of October we continue our commitment to trade the forest, not the trees. Of note is the fact that as the S&P 500 Index climbed to new highs, the number of individual stocks participating in the rally continued to diminish. On 5/24, 87% of the stocks in the S&P 500 were separating from value; on 8/2 only 78% of the stocks were bullish according to our indicators, and finally as the S&P 500 Index was making new highs on 9/20 the number of individual stocks making new moves beyond value decreased another 8% to 70%. This pattern of divergent market participation relative to price combined with a context of a very under-developed bell curve suggests a vulnerability to a deep correction. Until the market substantially clears the important ledge of high usage that extends as high as 1710, we believe the territory between 1690-1710 is the area to sell at or against this month in anticipation of a pullback toward 1630 or potentially 1575. It would take sustained development this month above Copyright 2013 Mesch Capital Management, Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material is for the sole use of the intended recipient(s) and contains confidential and privileged information. 1730 to negate our read and suggest Bulls were back in the driver seat for the remainder of the quarter. Any unauthorized reproduction, review, use, disclosure, or distribution is strictly prohibited.

    10-Year T-Notes (Dec 13)

    Mesch Market Outlook October 2013


    Longer-Term Context

    129-00 129-00

    127-00 126-00

    124-10

    120-20 124-10

    122-10

    Jan. 2008 December 2012

    Jan. May 21st 2013

    May 21st Oct. 1st 2013

    Jan. 2008 Oct. 1st 2013

    While weve been major Bears in this market, we saw signs last month of the sell order flow dry up and anticipated a substantial corrective bounce off the bottom of value. Our recommendation was to stand aside from the short side and look to reload your around 126-00-126-10. The market did indeed stage a rally off the bottom of value last month and has reached our upside targets where we recommended our sale. We anticipate this key resistance zone will attract enough selling to trigger a return toward 124-10-00 value area bottom or potentially toward 122-10 to test the recent lows. Continued trading above 127 neutralizes our bearish read for the Copyright month and opens the doorInc. for a rally toward 128-20-12900 where wed look a shorting opportunity later this quarter. 2013 Mesch Capital Management, All Rights Reserved. This material is for the sole use of the intended recipient(s) and for contains confidential and privileged information.
    Any unauthorized reproduction, review, use, disclosure, or distribution is strictly prohibited.

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