Assignment of Regression Analysis

Managerial Economcis Assignment of Economic Model Building Regression analysis
Each group is required to make an economic model by keeping the Dependent variable such as (GDP) and any two variables as Independent from the given set of variables. Independent variables are given below.
Direct interest Exchange Inflation FDI tax rate rate
Investment Exports Imports Employment
Requirements: Make an economic model and apply regression analysis on it using Excel or SPSS and Plot the graph as well. Interpret the coefficient of determination and other important values for goodness of fit of model. Submission requirements: 1. All groups are expected to make power point presentation for visual and oral presentation.
Example:
INFLATION and UNEMPLOYMENT as our research variables. If unemployment rates are low, inflation should occur. Because consumers would be earning and later using that income to purchase goods and services, when too much spending is happening in an economy, inflation is inevitable. If unemployment rate is high, spending is down, people can't afford to be enough due to lack of money. Therefore more jobs are layed off and inflation is thought to come down.
By: Yasir Ali Soomro
Assistant Professor
-Relationship between INFLATION and UNEMPLOYMENT:

There is surely a relationship between inflation and unemployment. As unemployment rises, the inflation rate will likely fall. This is because: Higher unemployment will make it harder for unions and workers to bargain for higher wages. This is because if they ask for higher wages, employers can turn round and say there are 3 million unemployed people willing to work at lower wages. Therefore, wage inflation is likely to be muted during the period of rising unemployment. This will reduce cost push inflation and demand pull inflation. The higher unemployment is also a reflection of the decline in economic output. Therefore, firms are seeing an increase in spare capacity and increase in volume goods not sold. In a recession, there will be greater price competition. Therefore, the lower output will definitely reduce demand pull inflation in the economy. So therefore, there is the direct effect of unemployment on inflation. As due to the increase and decrease in the unemployment, inflation occurs. Year
1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Un-employment
3.85 3.75 3.65 3.3 3.071 3.142 3.141 6.3 4.689 6.064 5.283 4.785 5.099 5.362 5.755 6.01 5.906 6.87 7.82 8.27 8.27
Inflation
8.827 3.409 4.976 4.703 4.681 10.79 5.485 13.81 12.66 14.46 9.626 11.76 12.09 10.3 12.45 6.479 4.336 3.843 3.591 2.904 2.625
Assistant Professor
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
7.69 7.69 6.2 5.325 5.202 5.46 5.55 5.95
7.038 9.845 7.121 7.411 19.29 9.614 11.76 13.31
SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple 0.104205 R 521 0.010858 R Square 791 Adjusted 0.027185 R Square 102 Standard 1.561794 Error 447 Observati ons 28 ANOVA df Regressio n Residual Total 1 26 27 Coefficien ts 5.878383 777 0.037404 243 SS 0.696216 412 63.41924 93 64.11546 571 Standard Error 0.669582 136 0.070012 022 MS 0.696216 412 2.439201 896 F 0.285427 956 Significan ce F 0.597704 499
Intercept
8.827
t Stat 8.779182 51 0.534254 58
P-value 2.96495E09 0.597704 499
Lower 95% 4.502037 998 0.181316 014
Upper 95% 7.254729 555 0.106507 527
Lower 95.0% 4.502037 998 0.181316 014
Upper 95.0% 7.254729 555 0.106507 527
Assistant Professor
Steps how to do the assignment On SPSS or EXCEL:

IF you are familiar with the SPSS (statistical Package for Social Sciences) Import the data from excel file to Data view.
Create Variable View by entering the variables that you have selected for your model. One data and variable view are created then apply statistical test on it. Regression analysis will be applied on the data:
GO TO: Analyze Regression Linear Put your variables into the dependent variable and Independent variable. Press OK and you will get the result output into three tables Interpret the result of tables.
ON EXCEL: Open Microsoft Excel sheet Go to: customize Quick Access toolbar Click More commands Add-ins Toolpack simple and VBA both.
More commands
Add Analysis
Now data that you have gathered copy it to excel sheet and go to DATA in tool bar and click Data analysis Regression analysis and put your dependent variable as Y- range and independent variables in X- range and click ok for result table. Simply now interpret you results and economic model.
Assistant Professor

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Managerial Economcis Assignment of Economic Model Building Regression analysis

Investment Exports Imports Employment

By: Yasir Ali Soomro

-Relationship between INFLATION and UNEMPLOYMENT:

By: Yasir Ali Soomro

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

7.69 7.69 6.2 5.325 5.202 5.46 5.55 5.95

7.038 9.845 7.121 7.411 19.29 9.614 11.76 13.31

t Stat 8.779182 51 0.534254 58

P-value 2.96495E09 0.597704 499

Lower 95% 4.502037 998 0.181316 014

Upper 95% 7.254729 555 0.106507 527

Lower 95.0% 4.502037 998 0.181316 014

Upper 95.0% 7.254729 555 0.106507 527

By: Yasir Ali Soomro

Steps how to do the assignment On SPSS or EXCEL:

By: Yasir Ali Soomro

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