Presentation

Financial Trading and Investing Case Study Name: Xuwu Liu RIN: 661010891
-Risk Arbitrage on merger between BT and MCI
Time Line (Brief)
Nov 1st, 1996
Opportunity emreged Farallon began to gather information for the deal Agreement was made Farallon began to prepare for trading position The market had more and more confidence on the merger Farallon continually added to its position.
Nov 3rd, 1996
Nov 4th,1996 to July 9th, 1997
July 9th, 1997 and after
Unexpected announcement was made by MCI The market was in chaos and Farallon faced hard decision.
Time Line (Detail)

Time: November 1, 1996: Events: Information circulated about the possible merger between BT and MCI. Farallon Capital Managements Action: Started collecting information and prepared themselves for a potential position.
Time Line (Detail)-Continued

Time: November 3, 1996
Event: BT announced it had come to an agreement with MCI for an acquisition. And there were preliminary estimates that the merger would be completed within nine to twelve months.
Farallon Capital Managements Action: Reached some conclusions about the prospects for the merger: Market Trend- a more integrated international market Company Specific factors- BT knows well about MCI; great synergy effects potential Regulation Barrier- little antitrust concerns; good chance of waiving the FCCs ownership limit Designed trading strategy: Came to the conclusion that the appropriate spread for the deal should be about 12% (difference between the price paid by BT and the market price of MCI) The current narrow spread is because the market hasnt fully understand the effects of U.K.s Advance Corporation Tax Initially take opposite of the usual merger arbitrage position by going long BT shares and selling short MCI shares.

Time: November 4, 1996 to July 9, 1997 Event: Spread widened; regulatory hurdles became less of a concern Farallon Capital Managements Action: Reverse its initial position by going long MCI shares and short BT shares, and continually add to its positions.

Time: July 9, 1997 and after Events:
MCI announced that the cost to enter local telephone market was substantially higher than expected, and its core long distance business will have a lower than expected earnings led by heightened competitive pressure. MCI guided future earnings expectation was down almost 50%. It seemed BT was surprised by the MCIs announcement and has the potential to renegotiate the contract or even terminate the merger. Debate raged on Wall Street regarding the prospects of the MCI merger. Both MCI and BTs stock prices declined and Farallon Capital Management had lost money on the position.
Farallon Capital Managements Action: Was Being Discussed
How to execute Risk Arbitrage

Spot Opportunities Select deals for further review Due diligence Take trading positions

Spot Opportunities
Monitor the market to see if there is any rumor about potential mergers and if there is any new announcement of mergers.
Select deals for further review

Filter out noises and decide what are the deals that worth further investigation.
Due diligence
Understanding the potential risks and returns Valuations Understanding the impacts of the merger on the acquirer and the target firm Based on various sources of information
Wall Street equity analyst investors relations department of companies affected by a merger announcement Lawyers other industry experts competitors of the company major institutional shareholders investment bankers political consultants trade journals newspaper reporters other arbitrage funds.

Take trading positions
Two ways:
Cash purchase of the target firms stock if the merger is a cash deal Purchase the target companys stock and sell short the stock of the acquiring company if the merger is a stockfor-stock deal
Gradually commit more capital as the picture of the merger getting more and more clear.
M&A Arbitrage: Risk and Return

Risk: The merger doesnt happen as expected, which cause the targets stock price reverse to the level before the merger announcement(ignoring general market movement), and since the arbitrager is taking a long position in targets stock, this will lead to a loss to the arbitrager. Return: If the merger happens as expected, then the arbitrager will profit from the long side of the position, and the net profit is equal to the bid price from the acquirer for the target firm minus the arbitragers purchase price for the target firms stock.
What to do with Farallons position and with the hedge?

Current Situations(July 1997):
Farallon is not heavily leveraged, which means Farallon can take some losses and can hold the position for a longer time. Lost money on the position, but because both the BT and MCIs stock prices decline, it lose money on the long position but is gaining money on the short position, which means the situation is not too bad. Farallon had not had a down month since 1989, which means it is probably important to maintain this record because after a long time of good performances a negative return will look very unusual and may draw a lot of attention from the investors.

Implication from the decline of market price:
Since the BTs stock prices has declined, if we ignore the overall market movement, the decline of BTs stock price means the market is still expecting the merger to happen. At the same time, the MCIs stock price also declined, again if we ignore the overall market movement during the same period, the decline of MCIs stock implied that the market believes the probability of the merger decreased, or the market believes the merger will be based on an renegotiated new contract.

Strategies and potential outcomes:
If the merger fails, as long as Farallon didnt clear its positions, it will suffer a loss.
If the contract renegotiated, as long as Farallon didnt clear its positions, the event will bring uncertainty to its position. The reason is that the market already expects a certain level of renegotiation, so the impact of the actual renegotiated contract depends on whether the difference between the new and old contract is larger or smaller than it is expected.
If the arrangement is proceed anyway, as long as Farallon didnt clear its positions, it will profit from its positons.

Hold the position as it is BT: Up MCI: Down Impact on position: Negative BT: Uncertain MCI: Uncertain Impact on position: Uncertain BT: Down MCI: Up Impact on position: Positive Gradually reduce the position BT: Up MCI: Down Impact on position: Negative BT: Uncertain MCI: Uncertain Impact on position: Uncertain BT: Down MCI: Up Impact on position: Positive Clear the position BT: Up MCI: Down Impact on position: None BT: Uncertain MCI: Uncertain Impact on position: None BT: Down MCI: Up Impact on position: None Merger Failed
Contract Renegotiated
Merger proceed as planned
So the final decision is based on an assessment of the probabilities of different outcomes (failed, renegotiated, proceed), and based on the assessment of Farallons capacity (both financial and reputational) to withstand the potential losses.

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Financial Trading and Investing Case Study Name: Xuwu Liu RIN: 661010891

-Risk Arbitrage on merger between BT and MCI

Time Line (Brief)

Nov 1st, 1996

Nov 3rd, 1996

Nov 4th,1996 to July 9th, 1997

July 9th, 1997 and after

Time Line (Detail)

Time Line (Detail)-Continued

Time Line (Detail)-Continued

Time Line (Detail)-Continued

Farallon Capital Managements Action: Was Being Discussed

How to execute Risk Arbitrage

How to execute Risk Arbitrage

Select deals for further review

How to execute Risk Arbitrage

How to execute Risk Arbitrage

M&A Arbitrage: Risk and Return

What to do with Farallons position and with the hedge?

What to do with Farallons position and with the hedge?

What to do with Farallons position and with the hedge?

What to do with Farallons position and with the hedge?

Merger proceed as planned

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