493

SCIENCE, CIVILIZATION AND DEMOCRACY Values, systems, structures and affinities

It is argued here that mankind is in an age of transition. Professor Prigogine presents a penetrating perspective on the nature of science and technology, observing that science is complex and probabilistic where the notions of irreversibility randomness and bifurcation are profoundly altering hitherto This new reconceptualization of unchallenged concepts. science has implications for the human sciences and for planning-it is leading to new dialogues of man with man, and of man with nature. The Zeitmotiv of this article is that the future and this implies ethical is not given: time is a cofistruction, responsibilities.

MANKIND IS IN AN AGE OF TRANSITION. Interestingly enough, science is also in an age of transition. We are not only witnessing a scientification of technology, to use the term mentioned by Umberto Colombo. Something deeper is happening: the dimensions of the scientific endeavour are changing, and this alters the meaning of scientific rationality, and therefore the relations between science, civilization and democracy.

Professor Ilya Prigogine, Nobel Laureate (1977), is Professor at the Free University of Brussels, Service de Chimie Physique II, Code Postal 231, Campus Plaine ULB, Boulevard du Triomphe, 1050 Brussels, Belgium; Director, Centre of Statistical Mechanics and Thermodynamics, University of Texas; and Special Adviser to the Commission of the European Communities. Professor Prigogine expresses his appreciation to Sir Hermann Bondi and Mr John Hartland for suggestions and discussions. Thanks are also due to Peter Allen, Gregoire Nicolis, Serge Perhaut and Mich& Sanglier for their active help in elaboration of the text. This article is an edited version of a paper given at the VIth Parliamentary and Scientific Conference of the Council of Europe, Tokyo, June 1985, and the editor of Futures wishes to thank the Council of Europe for permission to publish the article here. For discussion of this text and others, including a synthesis of a number of the themes discussed in this article, see, EuropeJapan: Futures in Science, Technoloo and Democracy (Butterworths, Guildford, UK, 1986).

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Ltd

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Science, civilization and democracy

I am especially proud of two breakthroughs for which As a European, Europe is responsible, and which seem to be of decisive importance for the future-the formulation of the project of modern science in the 17th century, and the promulgation of the ideal of democracy. Europeans live at intersection of at least two different systems of values-scientific rationality the on

one side, and collective behaviour rationality on the other. This polarity imposed by historical evolution could not but lead to some stress which was to be felt in much European thought. It is of great importance, particularly at present, involved that we reach a better harmony between in science, democracy and civilization. the different rationalities

I believe that the clash between these two forms of rationality was real in the classical perspective; however, the main message of this communication is that we were victims classical science, saying by Albert classical science be eliminated. of a distorted the intelligible Einstein were to describe representation was identified time is an a fundamental of science. It is true that, for with the immutable. A famous illusion: the ultimate which time aims of level from would

is that

On the one hand, this attempt to reach eternity through reason appears as grandiose; on the other, it leads to a description of nature viewed as a passive tool, dominated by the rationality of the human mind, and therefore radically alien to it. In this perspective, living systems become, as lucidly observed by If life as a whole is alien to the basic laws of Jacques Monod, strange objects. nature, this will be even more so for man. Monods conclusion is well known:

Now does (Man) at last realise that, like a gypsy, he lives on the boundary of an alien world. A world that is deaf to his music, just as indifferent to his hopes as to his sufferings or his crimes. l continues This image of science ority. It permeates many aspects often identified the distinguished to be propagated of human sciences, To with considerable authis of in which quote rationality

with timelessness and equilibrium. economist Walter A. Weisskopf:

a conclusion

The Newtonian paradigm underlying the economy according to the pattern analogy to the planetary system, to a system ruled by endogenous factors moving to a determined, predictable

classical and neo-classical economics interpreted developed in classical physics and mechanics, in machine and to clockwork: a closed autonomous of a highly selective nature, self-regulating and point of equilibrium.2 vision on our

The importance of this distortion imposed by the classical cultural perception of nature cannot be overestimated. Let us mention the introduction to a UNESCO colloquium:

For more than a century the sector of scientific activity has been growing to such an extent within the surrounding cultural space that it seems to be replacing the totality of culture itself. Some believe that this is merely an illusion, due to its high growth rate Others consider that the recent triumph of science entitles it at least to rule over the . whole of culture . Others again, appalled by the danger of man and society being manipulated if they come under the sway of science, perceive the spectre of cultural disaster looming in the distance.3 In this text, science appears as a threat to civilization. Much of the most

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495

significant pessimism, Strauss, is more

recent clearly to quote

intellectual present only some

history well-known

of Europe names.

is tainted Sartre, attitude

by

this

cultural or L&ibut it

in the works

of Heidegger, diffident activism,

Freud

In the USA, often involvements; straightforward

we can also find a somewhat expressed in terms of ecological but generally, both in Japan positivist attitude, in which

to science,

of fear of technological

and the USA we often meet a science is considered as a simple

recipe for success. Whatever this may be, we are witnessing today the birth of a new scientific rationality, which brings closer the two cultures. Therefore this seems the right moment to relaunch the science-culture of contemporary debate, science. in the light of the realities
Laws

and new perspectives of nature and civilization on intellectual have

Science interacted universe.

interacted moral

through planes,

technology. via Popper: the

They

have of

also the

and expressed

conception

As beautifully

by Sir Karl

There is at least one philosophic problem in which all thinking men are interested. It is the problem of cosmology: the problem of understanding the world-including ourselves, and our knowledge, as part of the world.4 The role of internal and external centre of a heated debate. There the ideology of science context. The formulation factors in the history of science remains at the is, however, a fact which cannot be dismissed: influenced by Isaac by its historical occurred and cultural of

is strongly science

of modern

Newton

in a period

absolute monarchy, under the sign of an Almighty rationality. The Western concept of law of nature from its judicial and religious resonances: according to the omniscience we may ascribe

God, simply

supreme garant of cannot be separated is patterned there would

the ideal of knowledge to a ruler. Therefore, embodiment For Him,

be no distinction between past and future. which the scientist represents the human vision, time could indeed

in this perspective, in of a transcendental

only be an illusion .5

The atemporal world of classical physics was shaken by the industrial revolution. One of the greatest intellectual novelties of that new period was probably 1865: the formulation of the laws of thermodynamics by Rudolf Clausius in

Die Energie der Welt ist konstant. Die Entropic der Welt strebt einern Maximum tu.

In this view the world has a history. But beware: as entropy leads to disorder, to the forgetting of initial conditions, this history is a history of decay, of degradation; a history expressed by the increase of entropy. It expresses the anxiety of losing the resources which have made the industrial revolution possible; it expresses a deep pessimism, which is also present in the relativism of Darwins theory of biological evolution. As is well known, in Darwins theory random fluctuations are selected through interaction with the environ-

ment . This gives the appearance

of complexification.

But globally

everything

is

496

Science, &iltzatm

and democrq

running

down.

This

fundamental is associated century

pessimism with the

is still

present of time

in most in the

of the of as

scientific literature. Classical science eternity. decay. trophes Empire. Nineteenth

negation

name

science

is associated cannot

with

a concept

of time

But the history

of our world

be a succession

of historical

catas-

only, such as Gibbons description of the decline and fall of the Roman After all, if there was decay, there must also have been some moments

of creation.

The history of the world presented as a progressive decay clashes so essential for our adherence to the ideals of with the vision of progress, democracy. Curiously enough, this simple truth seems to have been first perceived as destruction At present, nor to decay. Reconceptualization of science century, perspective to our century. It is a turning This century point started in in by artists: or physics Mondrian Kandinsky) some of the most important creators of our century (such were deeply aware of the duality between It is this duality of a third which time, inspired reducible their creative effort. neither to repetition

and creation.

is in search

We now move human history,

to the 20th whatever

we consider.

science with two major breakthroughs-relativity and which opened the way to new frontiers, the first one the other to a new microscopic world. processes, The constants, This novelty heralded inherent in these two revolutions in physics; such as the velocity of light in a vacuum,

quantum mechanics, to large-scale cosmic role of universal constant, h. the by

is the for there

c, and Plancks

the end of universality

was no empirical

constant in Newtons scale of the objects-but modern physics. The importance consider information the two

theory: it could be applied in the same way whatever this was no more the case in the universe described of quantum scientific and mechanics cannot which we be overestimated

if we to

revolutions

experience

today-the

revolution

the biotechnological

revolution.

It is amazing

notice that these revolutions started through the work of a few scientists (no towns such as Gottingen, more than a few hundred) 1iving in small university Leydon or Cambridge. At present, it is one of our basic aims to discover some comparable small disturbances (the hopeful fluctuations) which could have a comparable effect on human life. Still, quantum mechanics and relativity shared some of the basic aspects of classical science. In classical science, the basic laws were deterministic (at the level of the wave function for quantum mechanics) and time-reversible. Future and past play the same role. In contrast, wherever we look today, we find evolution, diversification and instabilities. A fundamental reconceptualization of science is going on in the second half of the 20th century. We have long known that we are living in a pluralistic world in which we find deterministic as well as stochastic phenomena, reversible as well as irreversible. We observe deterministic phenomena such as the frictionless pendulum or the trajectory of the moon around the Earth; we know that the frictionless pendulum is also reversible. But other pro-

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497

cesses

are irreversible, the variety

as diffusion, of natural What

or chemical processes phenomena

reactions;

and we are obliged printed

to

acknowledge of referring moment

the existence

of stochastic

if we want to avoid the paradox to a program at the is of this century

of the Big Bang.

has changed

since the beginning

our evaluation of the relative importance of these four types of phenomena. The artificial may be deterministic and reversible. The natural contains essential elements of randomness and irreversibility. This leads to a new vision of matter-no longer passive, as in the mechanical worldview, with spontaneous activity. This change is so deep that I believe but endowed we can really

speak about a new dialogue of man with nature. At the start of this century, continuing the tradition of the classical research programme, physicists were almost unanimous in admitting that the fundamental laws of the universe were deterministic and reversible. Processes which did not fit this scheme were supposed to be exceptions, some complexity, which had itself to be accounted ignorance, or lack of control on the variables involved. century, we are more and more numerous in believing even artefacts due to for by invoking our Now, at the end of this that the fundamental and reversible

laws of nature are irreversible and stochastic; that deterministic laws are applicable only in very limited circumstances.

It is interesting to inquire how such a change could occur over a relatively short time. It is the outcome of unexpected results, obtained in quite different fields of physics and chemistry such as elementary particles, cosmology or the study of self-organization in far from equilibrium systems. Who would have believed, 50 years ago, that most and perhaps all elementary particles are unstable?; that we could speak about the evolution of the universe as a whole?; that far from equilibrium, molecules may communicate, to use anthropomorphic These relation terms, as witnessed in the chemical clocks? on our outlook to the classical on the view, unexpected discoveries have had a drastic effect between hard and soft sciences. According

there was a sharp distinction between simple systems, such as studied by physics or chemistry, and complex systems, such as studied in biology and human science. Indeed, one could not imagine a greater contrast than that which exists between the simple models of classical dynamics, or the simple behaviour of a gas or a liquid, and the complex processes we discover in the evolution of life or in the history of the human societies. This gap is now being filled. Over the past decade, we have learned that, in non-equilibrium conditions, simple materials such as a gas or a liquid, or simple chemical reactions, can acquire complex behaviour. We have already mentioned the second law of thermodynamics, which expresses interest Today, the increase of entropy for isolated systems. For a long time, the of thermodynamics interest shifts to concentrated non-equilibrium on isolated systems systems at equilibrium. interacting with their emphasize an essential In thermodynamics, we with the outside world brings us closer because of their

surroundings through an entropy flow. Let us difference with the description of classical mechanics. are dealing with embedded systems: interaction through entropy flow plays an essential to objects like towns or living systems, embedding in their environment.

role. This immediately which can only survive

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Science, civilization and democracy

There is another basic difference with mechanics. Suppose we have some foreign celestial body approaching the earth: this would lead to a deformation of the earths trajectory, which would remain forever-dynamic systems have no way to forget perturbations. This is no longer the case when we include dissipation. A damped pendulum will reach a position of equilibrium, whatever the initial perturbation. We can now also understand in quite general terms what happens when we drive a system far from equilibrium. The attractor which dominated the behaviour of the system near equilibrium may become unstable, as a result of the flow of matter and energy which we direct at the system. Non-equilibrium becomes a source of order; new types of attractors, more complicated ones, may appear, and give to the system remarkable new space-time properties. Consider two examples which are widely studied today. The so-called BCnard instability is a striking example of instability in a stationary state giving rise to a phenomenon of spontaneous self-organization; the instability is due to a vertical temperature gradient set up in a horizontal liquid layer. The lower face is maintained to a given temperature, higher than that of the upper. As a result of these boundary conditions, a permanent heat flux is set up, moving from bottom to top. For a small difference in temperature, heat can be conveyed by conduction, without any convection; but when the imposed temperature gradient reaches a threshold value, the stationary state (the fluids state of rest) becomes unstable: convection arises, corresponding to the coherent motion of a huge number of molecules, increasing the rate of heat transfer. In appropriate conditions, the convection produces a complex spatial organization in the system. There is another way of looking at this phenomenon. Two elements are involved-heat flow and gravitathe force of gravitation has hardly tion. Under equilibrium conditions, any effect on a thin layer of the order of 10 mm. In contrast, far from equilibrium, gravitation gives rise to macroscopic structures. Non-equilibrium matter becomes much more sensitive to the outer world conditions than matter at equilibrium. I like to say that at equilibrium, matter is blind; far from equilibrium it may begin to see. Consider secondly the example of chemical oscillations. Ideally speaking, we have a chemical reaction whose state we control through the appropriate injection of chemical products and the elimination of waste products. Suppose that two of the components are formed respectively by red and blue molecules in comparable quantities. We would expect to observe some kind of blurred colour with perhaps occasionally some flash of red or blue spots. This is, however, not what actually happens. For a whole class of such chemical reactions, we see in sequence the whole vessel become red, then blue, then red again: we have a chemical clock. In a sense, this violates all our intuitions about chemical reactions. We used to speak of chemical reactions as being produced by molecules moving in a disordered fashion and colliding at random. But, in order to synchronize their periodic change, the molecules must be able to communicate in a sense. In other words, we are dealing here with new supermolecular scales-both in time and space-produced by chemical activity. The basic conditions to be satisfied for such chemical oscillations to occur is
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auto- or cross-catalytic relations, leading to non-linear behaviour, such as described in numerous studies of modern biochemistry. Remember that nucleic acids produce proteins, which in turn lead to the formation of nucleic acids. There is an autocatalytic loop involving proteins and nucleic acids. Non-linearity and far-from equilibrium situations are closely related; their effect is that they lead to a multiplicity of stable states (in contrast to near-fromequilibrium situations, where we find only one stable state). This multiplicity is to be seen on a bifurcation diagram (Figure 1). In Figure 1 we have plotted the solution of the problem, X, against some bifurcation parameter A (X would be for example the concentration in some chemical component, and A could be related to the duration that the molecules are left in the chemical reactor). For some critical value of control parameter, say AC, new solutions emerge. Moreover, near the bifurcation point, the system has a choice between two branches-we could therefore expect a stochastic behaviour: near a bifurcation point, fluctuations play an important role. We have said that dissipative systems may forget perturbations: these systems are characterized by attractors. The most elementary attractors are points or lines such as one may see on Figures 2(a) and 2(b). On Figure 2(a), we have a point attractor P in a two-dimensional space (Xl and X2 may be concentrations of some species): whatever the initial conditions, the system will evolve necessarily towards P. On Figure 2(b), we have a line-attractor: whatever the initial conditions, the system will eventually evolve on this line, called a limit-cycle. But attractors may present a more complex structure; they may be composed of a set of points such as on Figure 2(c). Their distribution may be dense enough to permit us to ascribe them an effective (non-zero) dimensionality. For example, the dimension of the attractor on Figure 2(c) may be any real number between 2 and 3. Following the terminology of Benoit Mandelbrot, one may say that this is a fractal attractor. Such systems have unique properties, reminiscent of, for example, turbulence which we encounter in everyday experience. They combine both fluctuations and stability. The system is driven to the attractor; still, as this one is formed by so many points, we may expect large fluctuations. One speaks

b-

Multiple Jolutions

Figure 1. Bifurcation

of stationary

states for variable X, plotted against

control

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Science, civilization and democracy

EL
P
c

Dimemion:2cdc3

Figure 2. Three types of attractors for dynamic fractal (non-integer dimension) attractor (2~).

systems.

Point attractor

(2a); line (limit-cycle)

often of attracting chaos. These large fluctuations are connected to a great sensitivity in respect of initial conditions. The distance between neighbouring trajectories grows exponentially in time (this growth is characterized by the socalled Lyapounoff exponents). Attracting chaos has now been observed in a series of situations including chemical systems or hydrodynamics; but the importance of these new concepts goes far beyond physics and chemistry properly. Let us indicate some recently studied examples. We know that climate has fluctuated violently in the past. Climatic conditions that prevailed during the past 200-300 million years were extremely different to what they are at present. During these periods, with the exception of the quaternary era (which began about 2 million years ago) there was practically no ice on the continents, and the sea level was higher than its present value by about 80 metres. A striking feature of the quaternary era is the with an average periodicity of 100 appearance of a series of glaciations, thousand years, on which is superposed an important amount of noise. What is the source of these violent fluctuations (Figure 3), which have obviously played an important role in our history.-3 There is no indication that the intensity of solar energy may be responsible. A recent analysis by C. and G. Nicolis6 has shown that these fluctuations can be modelled in terms of four independent variables, which form a non-linear dynamic system leading to a chaotic attractor of dimension 3.1 embedded in a phase space of dimension 4. The variability of climate could have been thought of as resulting from the interplay of a large number of variables, acting in a deterministic fashion; it would then be a situation very similar to the outcome of the law of large numbers. The new insight is that it is not so. The temporal complexity is only due to four independent variables. We may therefore speak of an intrinsic complexity or unpredictability of climate. In a quite different field, recent work has shown that the electrical activity of the brain in deep sleep as monitored by electro-encephalogram (EEG) may be modelled by a fractal attractor. Deep sleep EEG may be described by a dynamic involving five variables; again, this is remarkable as it shows that the brain acts as a system possessing intrinsic complexity and unpredictability. It is this instability which permits the amplification of inputs related to
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501

-2

200

400

600 Time (IO yews BP)

600

Figure

3. Series of temperatures

characteristic

of the earths

global climate

for the past million

years.

sensory

impression

in the awake

state.

Obviously,

the dynamic

complexity

of

the human instability. would A new

brain cannot Is biological

be an accident. evolution the

It must have been selected for its very history of dynamic instability, which characteristic of human existence?

be the basic rationality

ingredient

of creativity

Let us summarize

our main

findings.

The

universe

has a history.

This

history

includes the creation of complexity through mechanisms of bifurcation. These mechanisms act in far from equilibrium conditions as realized in the earths biosphere. Obviously, to understand the origin of irreversibility on a cosmic scale, we would have to turn to the origin of the universe, but we do not attempt Peter this here. Allen likes to compare the evolutionary pattern represented by a tree of

bifurcations through the example of origami (Figure 4). A piece of paper can be folded into many striking forms according to a tree of evolution. Characteristic traits emerge over time, and critical moments exist after which the evolution is definitely towards one particular form and not another. The emergent properties of a horse, a vase, a flapping bird and a cap are qualitatively different. In our discussion of irreversibility, we considered only the macroscopic level.

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Science, civilization and democracy

Figure 4. Origami bifurcation tree, which shape Box is built after nine foldings.

should

be read as showing

that,

for example,

the

But,

today,

irreversibility

can no longer

be seen as the outcome

of ignorance.

It

has therefore to be present definitely no longer a kind applies lected),

at all levels of physical existence. The of museum (as was the classical world,

world is and this

world the classical world, the action of time was compared to that of a tornado, which throws into pieces objects whose scattered pieces still remain; and with enough

also to the quantum world when the measurement process is negin which each bit of information is supposed to be conserved: it is a destroying and generating information and structure. In of processes,

ingenuity we could put these pieces back together. In the vision which includes irreversibility, the flow of time could be compared to the damping and vanishing of the waves which arise when we throw a stone into the pond. Instead of a museum, the world appears as a succession of destructive and creative processes. In this new approach, rationality is no longer to be identified with cerAt all levels, probability plays an tainty , nor probability with ignorance. essential role in the evolutionary mechanism. Our visions of the world as we see it around us and in us, converge. Sigmund Freud told us that the history of science is a history of alienation: after Copernicus we no longer lived at the centre of the universe; after Darwin, man was no longer different from the animals; and since Freud himself conscience is just the emerged part of a complex reality hidden from us. Curiously, we now reach an opposite view. With the role of duration and freedom so prevalent in human life, human existence appears as the most striking realization of the basic laws of nature, as expressed by irreversibility and randomness.

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This new rationality of science leads us to reconsider the relations between man and man as well as the relations between man and nature. We have already mentioned that we live at the intersection of at least two systems of values. Clearly, a social system is by definition a non-linear one, as interactions between the members of the society may have a catalystic effect. At each moment fluctuations are generated, which may be damped or amplified by society. An excellent example of a huge amplification (which we have already mentioned) is the acquisition of knowledge which in a few decades led from the work of a few pioneers in solid state physics to the information revolution that we are witnessing today. Scientific and technological progress probes the stability of the social system. In this view, there can be no question of the axiological neutrality of science. Problems that may arise at the science/society interface can only be solved by understanding the actual complexity of societal processes. If these are not understood, the response of the system may ultimately be a negative one. Impact on the human sciences From the period of the enlightenment, human conduct was supposed to be governed by natural laws rather than by metaphysical ones. By basing the methods of social and economic sciences on those of classical physics, it was thought that a scientific, supposedly value-free analysis, could be achieved. These objective methods would give results imbued with the authority of science, which was considered as being above human values and beliefs. Such ideas still flourish today. Markets are supposed to be made up of small buyers and sellers, each of which has perfect information, which enables them to compare all the alternative products or investments. This, together with the perfect mobility of production factors such as labour, leads to a general equilibrium, which corresponds, according to this paradigm, not only to what is observed in the real world, but also to the ideal state of the economy. Neoclassical economics is based on the concept of marginal utility, which assumes that consumers and producers express choices by calculating precisely their utility. Furthermore, they are assumed to know how this utility would change with their expenditure in a given domain. Such assumptions take for granted quite unrealistic computing and informational powers on the part of actors, as Herbert Simon has pointed out. They also imply that different factors are separable and additive, and more importantly, they exclude cultural attachments and motivations other than those of utility maximization. But what are the alternatives? We have already mentioned the conclusions of Weisskopf. If we turn to Marxs view of the market system, he saw it evolving to its inevitable destruction, in accordance with the pessimism prevalent in the natural sciences of the first industrial age. We have seen, however, that complex systems evolve in an evolutionary process of creative discovery, where both stochastic and deterministic processes play essential roles. Instead of seeing human systems in terms of equilibrium or as a mechanism, we see a creative world of imperfect information and shifting values, in which many different futures can be envisaged. The value problem of society can be associated largely with non-linearity. Values are the

FUTURES August 1996

code we adopt to maintain the social system on a branch which has been chosen by history. Value systems are always facing the destabilizing effect of fluctuations generated by the social system itself, which give the whole process its characteristics of irreversibility and non-predictability. Instead of leading to a feeling of frustration or alienation, this new vision of the world suggests an active attitude -seeking a better understanding of this value system. One of the expressions of this active attitude may be to make explicit the dialogue between modelling and planning. This dialogue through model building has in fact already started. In particular, models have been developed which can generate the spatial evolution of socioeconomic structure in a city or a region. Econometric modelling has already dealt with dynamic models. However, it generally uses a simple descriptive dynamics simply based on observed trends of past series. The introduction and development of system dynamics must be hailed as a considerable advance on equilibrium methods. However, the models we are advocating go one step further. The interest of this class of models is that they enable us to make the interplay between the actors and the constraints of the environment more transparent. Anticipation here plays an essential role. We may mention the example of traffic flow: the desired speed of each driver is hindered because of the existence of other drivers; the gap between desired and actual behaviour of the system leads to the adoption of strategies. To model this kind of process, we have to take into account the multiplicity of actors and of points of view. The fact that each actor influences the behaviour of each other leads to coupled, non-linear processes involving different populations (white collars, blue collars, consumers etc) and different economic functions (services, industry etc). This in turn gives the system access to divergent evolutionary paths leading to structures and organizations. The existence of these multiple states implies that fluctuations play an important role near bifurcation points. Last but not least, this active role of fluctuations and innovations corresponds to a non-functional behaviour in the classical sense of the term. In these models, the interaction mechanisms lead to the exclusion or concentration of certain variables in particular zones. For example, Brussaville generates a central business district and suburban shopping centres itselfsince potentially all variables can exist at every point. In this way, structure emerges during a simulation, and when the future is explored, the possibility of structural change and of the appearance of new centres and behaviour can be taken into account.g Let us emphasize the importance of such models for social sciences in order to make the decision mechanisms more transparent in a democratic society: we have here an example of a process of evolution in which science and collective rationality may interact in a constructive way. Perhaps this will be a way of demythologizing the process of collective decision making, without negating its complexity. Models alone will of course not be a substitute for political decision making, but they may help to make their implications more explicit. Another example is some recent work on fishing strategies, in which anticipation is considered explicitly in the description of the global system, which includes the marine ecosystem itself, as well as different groups of fishermen, the processing industry, and the retail and export markets. Thus,

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the choice problem

of which involving

zone and which prices, expected

species catches

of fish is a complicated and risk. The demand

behavioural for specific

types of fish is a culturally determined phenomenon. A very homogeneous population may have highly specific and narrow demands, while a heterogeneous one may permit much more varied fishing. Also, it can be shown that stochastic behaviour is an important part of the system, and that successful exploitation of a marine resource requires actors who are stochastic and others which are rational (non risk-takers), who act only on information. The United fishery project forms a part of a more integrated project, which the Nations University is sponsoring, where this intrinsic randomness and play an essential role. We may also quote the studies initiated by

complexity

the Risk Institute of Geneva, which is launching a project which emphasizes the positive contribution of risk in any creative process. We may also quote the projects sponsored by the International Federation of Institute for Advanced Studies (IFIAS). Erwin Laszlo speaks of the crucial epochs in the history of mankind: these

are the moments at which non-linear systems such as societies are approaching bifurcation points. I1 In biological evolution, bifurcation may be for the better or for the worse. We expect a bifurcation to arise in societies when they are destabilized exaggerating bifurcation. can behave by changing socioeconomic conditions. It is perhaps not to say that our present planetary system is approaching such a The difference with biological evolution is that human societies in a purposeful way: we can to some extent choose our evolutionary time is a is not given:

pace. The leitmotiu of my communication is that the future construction, and this implies ethical responsibilities. A new The dialogue with nature

reconceptualization of science whose dialogue of man with man, transparent the complex decision mechanism of society. It leads also to direction opened by the important Wisest. 2 I illustrate have seen this second the history aspect

that we have described leads to a new ultimate aim must be to make more mechanisms which ensure the survival a new dialogue of man with nature, in the book by Jonas Salk, The Survival of the back to the problem of climate. dynamic We

by coming

that

of climate

is that

of an unstable

system.

Curiously, the climate of the first half of this century constituted an anomaly rather than a typical sample of climates long and tumultuous history. During this period, mankind experienced relatively predictable weather and a retreat of the northern hemispheres ice cap. Agriculture and food production benefited considerably, and this contributed to the increase in world population. On the other hand, this apparent permanence has given a false idea as to what is or is not normal in climatology. Since the mid-1970s the return of climatic variability has been observed. One example is the abnormally harsh winter of 1976-77 that struck the eastern part of North America and the prolonged drought in the western part of Europe. It seems that this phenomenon was related to a weakening, or even to a real blocking of atmospheric circulation as reflected, for instance, by large

FUTURES August 1988

displacements of parts of the jet stream to the south (in the eastern part of the American continent) and to the north in the western part of Europe. A recent result13 indicates that there are essentially two possibilities-blocking or nonblocking, whose outcome may be considered as random as the outcome of the tossing of a coin. This is a really extraordinary example of the randomness of the environment in which we are embedded. This presses upon us the need to adopt a new way of communicating with nature. In the classical vision complexity was associated with incomplete knowledge of the number of variables involved but the existence of simple laws linking these variables on some basic level was not in doubt. We now discover an intrinsic complexity in nature around us. We have thus to explore the limits of predictability both on long and short timescales. The progress of non-equilibrium physics and non-linear mathematics makes it possible to study many new problems-the history of the earths climate, the blocking phenomenon we just spoke about, the generation of instabilities such as those induced by the heated island effect in areas such as lakes, cities, tropical islands or large irrigation-cultivated surfaces. We are now in possession of adequate tools to approach these problems. Recognition of the intrinsic complexity and unpredictability of our natural environment must not lead to an attitude of resignation. The last climatic optimum is generally situated 7000 years ago, since when the combined biological and meteorological situation of the earth has continuously deteriorated. This deterioration is largely independent of man, as the density of human population was too low to influence the formation of great deserts such as the Gobi or the Sahara. We can now conceive of a strategy to be elaborated in the future, which would permit us to leave the unfavourable bifurcation of which the earth is captive. We should quote in this context the important programme designed by the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU), Global change: an international geosphere biosphere programme.* Obviously, this type of programme should have both important experimental and theoretical components. The implementation of such programmes could lead to a reinforcement of the relation between science, democracy and civilization, as it would show that science can and must go beyond a purely conservative approach to global problems, as is usually the case in the ecological point of view. The kind of topics which we have enumerated could be the nucleus of such a global research programme. Why not name it &meter, from the name of the of Greek goddess of spring and fertility. ?I5 The present reconceptualization physics goes far beyond academic discussions. It may inspire new plans for action to a new dialogue between man and man, as well as between man and nature. The questions which Kant asked, What may I know, what must I do, what may I hope for?, are still with us. To these perennial questions each period has to spell out its specific answers. It is my conviction that the reconceptualization of physics, the discovery of a new world of irreversib~ity, of intrinsic randomness and complexity, may help us to make more precise the answers which our time may conceive.

FUTURES August 1996

Science, civilization and democracy 507

Notes

and references

1. J. Monod, Le hasard et la n&ssiti (Paris, Seuil, 1970), translated as Chance and Necessity (New York, Vintage Books, 1972), pages 172-173. 2. W. A. Weisskopf, Reflections on uncertainty in economics, The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance, 9 (33), 1984, pages 335-360. 3. La Science et la diver& des cultures (Paris, PUF and UNESCO, 1974). 4. Karl Popper, preface to the 1959 edition of The Logic of Scien~ifi Discovery (London, Hutchinson). 5. For these and other (more technical) considerations see I. Prigogine and I. Stengers, La nouvelle alliance (Paris, Gallimard, 1979), translated as Order out of Chaos (New York, Bantam, London, Heinemann, 1984); I. Prigogine, From Being to Becoming (San Francisco, Freeman, 1979); G. Nicolis and I. Prigogine, Exploring Complexily (Piper Verlag, 1986). Nature, 311, 1984, pages 529-532. 6. C. and G. Nicolis, Is there a climatic attractor?, of chaotic dynamics of brain 7. A. Babloyantz, J. M. Salazar and C. Nicolis, Evidence activity during the sleep cycle, Working Paper, Dpt Chimie Physique II, Universitt Libre de Bruxelles, 1985. 8. Herbert Simon, Models ofMan (New York, J. Wiley, 1957), page 198. 9. P. M. Allen, G. Engelen and M. Sanglier, New methods for policy exploration in complex systems, comm to a UNU conference at Montpelier, France, 1984, under the theme See also special issue of Environment and Planning, Praxis and Management of Complexity. series B 12, 1985, 1, pages 1-138. 10. P. M. Allen and J. M. McGlade, The dynamics of discovery and exploitation: the case of the Scotian Shelf fisheries, Working Paper, Dpt Chimie Physique II, Universitt Libre de Bruxelles, 1985. 11. E. Laszlo, The crucial epoch, Futures, 17 (l), 1985, pages 2-23. 12. J. Salk, The Survival of the Wisest (New York, Harper and Row, 1973). 13. J. Charney and J. Devore, JAtmos SC, 36, page 1205; A. Sutera, Adv in Geophys, in press. 14. See. T. F. Malone and J. G. Roederer, eds, Global Change, Proceedings of a Symposium held in Ottawa (September 1984), sponsored by ICSU (C ambridge University Press, 1985). 15. This name was suggested by the author in an address to an EEC meeting: Science et Societt dans IEurope en Mutation, La Recherche-DtGeloppement dans la Communauti konomique europinne: uer~ une nouvelle phare de la politique commune, Strasbourg, 20-22 October 1980.

FUTURES August 1999