CHAPTER 24

DO HUMANS BREED LIKE FLIES? OR LIKE NORWEGIAN RATS?

If we breed like rabbits, in the long run we have to live and die like
rabbits. A. J. Carlson, "Science Versus Life," Journal of the American
edical Association, !"#$!""%.
CHAPTER 24: TABLE OF CONTENTS
"&ntrammeled Co'ulation"
Summar(
"UNTRAMMELED COPULATION"
an( who worr( about 'o'ulation growth in 'oor countries assert that
'eo'le breed "naturall(." )hat is, 'oor 'eo'le are assumed to have
se*ual intercourse without taking thought or doing an(thing about the
'ossible conse+uences.
In the words of environmentalist ,illiam Vogt, whose -oad to Survival
sold millions of co'ies, 'o'ulation growth in Asia is due to "untrammeled
co'ulation" b( oslems, Sikhs, .indus, and the rest of "the backward
billion." /iologist 0arl Sa* asserted that "nearl( two thirds of the
world1s 'eo'le still rel( largel( on 'ositive checks 2death b( starvation
and disease3 to control e*cessive growth of 'o'ulations." 4r as -obert
C. Cook, the long5time 'o'ulation activist and editor of 6o'ulation
/ulletin, 'ut it more 'olitel(, "4ver a billion adults in less develo'ed
countries live outside the realm of decision5making on this matter" of
famil( si7e. )his idea goes hand in hand with the view that 'o'ulation
growth will increase geometricall( until starvation or famines halt it,
in the ever5ascending curve shown in figure 885!.
)he same view of human behavior underlies the assertion of .erman 9al(
and Clifford Cobb that "our current 'ractice 2is3 allowing new human
beings to be unintended b(5'roducts of the se*ual fumblings of teenagers
whose natural urges have been stimulated b( drugs, alcohol, )V, and ill5
constructed welfare incentives."
)he notion of "natural breeding," "natural fertilit(," and
"untrammeled co'ulation" has been buttressed b( the animal5ecolog(
e*'eriments that some biologists offer as analogies to human 'o'ulation
growth. )heir models include John /. Calhoun1s famous :orwegian rats in a
'en, h('othetical flies in a bottle or germs in a bucket, and meadow mice
or cotton rats, which will indeed kee' multi'l(ing until the( die for
lack of sustenance. 9aniel %. 6rice, in )he ;;th .our, gives a t('ical
e*am'le of this view.Assume there are two germs in the bottom of a
bucket, and the( double in number ever( hour. <If the reader does not
wish to assume that it takes two germs to re'roduce, he ma( start with
one germ, one hour earlier.= If it takes one5hundred hours for the
bucket to be full of germs, at what 'oint is the bucket one5half full of
germs> A moment1s thought will show that after ninet(5nine hours the
bucket is onl( half full. )he title of this volume is not intended to
im'l( that the &nited States is half full of 'eo'le but to em'hasi7e that
it is 'ossible to have "'lent( of s'ace left" and still be 'recariousl(
near the u''er limit.
It is interesting that a similar analog( was suggested b( /en?amin
@ranklin two centuries ago. In althus1s words,
It is observed b( 9r. @ranklin, that there is no bound to the
'rolific nature of 'lants or animals, but what is made b( their crowding
and interfering with each others1 means of substinence.... )his is
incontrovertibl( true.... In 'lants and animals the view of the sub?ect
is sim'le. )he( are all im'elled b( a 'owerful instinct to the increase
of their s'ecies and this instinct is interru'ted b( no reasoning or
doubts about 'roviding for their offs'ring...the su'erabundant effects
are re'ressed afterwards b( want of room and nourishment...and among
animals, b( their becoming the 're( of each other.
6erha's the most nightmarish of the biological analogies came from
Alan Aregg, the former director of the -ockefeller @oundation1s edical
9ivision$ ")here is an alarming 'arallel between the growth of a cancer
in the bod( of an organism and the growth of human 'o'ulation in the
earth1s ecological econom(." Aregg then asserts that "cancerous growths
demand foodB but so far as I know, the( have never been cured b( getting
it....)he analogies can be found in our 'lundered 'lanet." Aregg then
goes on to observe "how nearl( the slums of our great cities resemble the
necrosis of tumors." And this "raises the whimsical +uer($ ,hich is the
more offensive to decenc( and beaut(, slums or the fetid detritus of a
growing tumor>"
Some demogra'hic facts suggest that humans will increase the number of
children when conditions 'ermit. After food su''lies and living
conditions began to im'rove in Curo'ean countries several centuries ago,
the birthrate rose. And the same effect has been observed in the 'oor
countries in the twentieth centur(. ",hile the data are not so good as to
give decisive evidence, it seems ver( likel( that natalit( has risen over
the 'ast generation 5 certainl( in the ,est Indies, ver( likel( in
tro'ical America, and 'robabl( in a number of countries of Africa and
Asia."
/ut we must recogni7e what althus eventuall( came to recogni7e. After
he 'ublished the short sim'listic theor( in the first edition of his
Cssa( on 6o'ulation, he took the time to consider the facts as well as
the theor(. .e then concluded that human beings are ver( different from
flies or rats. ,hen faced with the limits of a bottle5like situation,
'eo'le can alter their behavior in the short run so as to accommodate to
that limit, and in the long run 'eo'le
usuall( alter the limit itself.
&nlike 'lants and animals, 'eo'le are ca'able of foresight and ma(
abstain from having children from "fear of miser(." )hat is, 'eo'le can
choose a level of fertilit( that fits the resources that will be
available. As althus 'ut it in his later writing, "Im'elled to the
increase of his s'ecies b( an e+uall( 'owerful instinct, reason
interru'ts his career, and asks him whether he ma( not bring beings into
the world, for whom he cannot 'rovide the means of su''ort."
6eo'le can also alter the limit 5 e*'and the "bottle" or the "lil(
'ond" 5 b( consciousl( increasing the resources available. ,hen the
town1s 'o'ulation has grown enough so that the school is full, the town
builds an additional school 5 usuall( a better one than the old school.
)he arithmetic about how man( doublings it takes to fill the container is
nothing but 'rett( arithmetic, wholl( irrelevant to human issues.
althus came to stress the difference between the breeding of animals
and of humans, and he decisivel( re?ected /en?amin @ranklin1s animal
analog($ ")he effects of this 2'reventive3 check on man are more
com'licated.... )he 'reventive check is 'eculiar to man, and arises from
that distinctive su'eriorit( in his reasoning faculties, which enables
him to calculate distant conse+uences. .uman beings are different from
the animals in that we have much more ca'acit( to alter our behavior 5
including our fertilit( 5 to meet the demands of our environment.
)o control fertilit( in res'onse to the conditions facing them, 'eo'le
must be ca'able of rational, self5conscious forethought that affects the
course of se*ual 'assion 5 the kind of 'lanning ca'abilit( that animals
a''arentl( do not 'ossess. )herefore we must briefl( 'onder the e*tent to
which reason and reasoning have guided the re'roductive behavior of
individual 'ersons in various societies at different 'eriods in their
histories. )o 'ut the matter bluntl(, we must in+uire into the notion 5
often held b( the highl( educated 5 that uneducated 'eo'le in 'oor
countries tend to breed without foresight or conscious control.
@or most cou'les in most 'arts of the world, marriage 'recedes
childbearing. It is therefore relevant to a ?udgment about the amount of
reasoning involved in "breeding" that marriages are contracted, in most
'rimitive and 'oor societies, onl( after a great deal of careful thought,
es'eciall( with reference to the economic effects of the marriage. .ow a
marriage match is made in rural Ireland shows the im'ortance of such
calculations.
)he (oung lad(1s father asks the s'eaker what fortune do he want.
.e asks him the 'lace of how man( cows, shee', and horses is it> .e asks
what makings of a garden are in itB is there 'lent( of water or s'ring
wells> Is it far from the road, he won1t take it. /ackward 'laces don1t
grow big fortunes. And he asks, too, is it near a cha'el and the school
or near town>
)he Inagh countr(man could 'ause hereB he had summari7ed a
ver( long and im'ortant negotiation.
",ell," he went on, getting to the heart of the matter, if it is a
nice 'lace, near the road, and the 'lace of eight cows, the( are sure to
ask DE% fortune 2'ounds dowr(3." )hen the (oung lad(1s father offers
8E%. )hen ma(be the bo(1s father throws off E%. If the (oung lad1s
father still has 8E% on it, the s'eaker divides the E% between them. So
now it1s 8#E. )hen the (oung man sa(s he is not willing to marr( without
D%% 5 but if she1s a nice girl and a good housekee'er, he1ll think of it.
So there1s another drink b( the (oung man, and then another b( the (oung
lad(1s father, and so on with ever( second drink till the(1re near drunk.
)he s'eaker gets 'lent( and has a good da(.
An astute weighing of economic conditions is also seen to affect
marriage in a Southern Italian town that was "as 'oor as an( 'lace in the
western world." )he (oung man whose account is given lived in a famil( of
four whose total (earl( cash and com'uted income amounted to F"G8 in !;EE
dollars. Cdward /anfield described the courtshi' and marriage decision.
In !;DE I was old enough to marr(. ( sisters wanted me to take a
wife because the( had no time to do services for me.
At that time there was a law that an(one who was 8E (ears old and
not married had to 'a( a "celibac(" ta* of !8E lire. )hat amount was
much, if we recall that to earn it (ou had to work 8E da(s. I thought it
over and finall( decided to marr(.( 'resent wife was at that time
working with relatives of m( em'lo(er. 4nce I sto''ed her and asked her
to marr( me, and she liked the idea too, but I had to tell it before her
father. .e was ha''( to acce't me, and we talked about what she had to
bring as dowr( and what I had to do.
.e asked me to bring m( mother to call so that ever(thing would be fine.
)he ne*t time I brought m( mother, and we had a nice feast. ,hen I
wanted to meet m( fiancee I had to ask the boss1 'ermission.In !;D# I
asked the girl and her famil( to hasten the marriage before I was 8E
(ears old. )he father told me that she was not read( with the dowr(. I
asked him if at least we couldn1t have the civil ceremon( on @ebruar( H,
!;DG, two months late, so that I had to 'a( the ta* for that (ear.4nce m(
mother and I went to Addo to visit m( father5in5law in order to discuss
and establish definitel( what the( were going to give us 2in the dowr(3.
( mother wanted ever(thing to be conve(ed through a notar(. ( father5
in5law gave us one tomolo of land and m( mother gave the little house,
but she reserved for herself the right to use it. Cver(thing was written
on official ta*5stam' 'a'er b( the notar(. As soon as m( wife was read(
with the dowr( the church marriage was set for August 8E, !;DG.
As to reason and self5control after marriage, there has been much
debate among demogra'hers in recent (ears about whether in 're5modern
societies fertilit( is or is not "natural" 5 that is, at a rate e+ual to
the biological limit. As I read that literature, those who re?ect the
"natural fertilit(" 'ro'osition have the better data and anal(ses, but a
conclusive answer is still to come.
In virtuall( no observed societ( <e*ce't, 'arado*icall(, the ver(
modern .utterites in the &.S. and Canada, and a few other such grou's=
does actual fertilit( a''roach women1s fecundit( <'otential fertilit(=.
And in man( "'rimitive" societies, fertilit( is +uite low.
)he anthro'ological evidence for fertilit( control within marriage
also seems convincing. Cven among the most "'rimitive" and "backward" of
'eo'le, fertilit( seems to be sub?ect to both 'ersonal and social
constraints. 4ne e*am'le is the "'rimitive" <as of !;DH= 6ol(nesian
island of )iko'ia, where "strong social conventions enforce celibac( u'on
some 'eo'le and cause others to limit the number of their offs'ring", and
"the motive of a married 'air is the avoidance of the e*tra economic
liabilit( which a child brings." Another e*am'le is the effect of the
si7e of the harvest on marriages in Sweden in the eighteenth centur( <a
backward agricultural countr( then, but one that ha''ened to kee' good
vital statistics=. ,hen the harvest was 'oor, 'eo'le did not marr(, as
figure 8"5! shows. /irthrates were also res'onsive to the harvest, and
even unmarried 'rocreation was affected b( ob?ective economic conditions.
)his is clear evidence that 'oor 'eo'le1s se*ual behavior is sensibl(
res'onsive to ob?ective circumstances.
FIGURE 24-1. .arvest Inde* and arriage -ates in Sweden <old
!85!=
After an e*tensive stud( of the anthro'ological literature, A. .
Carr5Saunders concluded, ")he mechanism whereb( numbers ma( be ke't near
to the desirable level is ever(where 'resent", the 'articular mechanisms
being "'rolonged abstention from intercourse, abortion, and infanticide."
And as a result of a stud( of "data on 8%% societies from all over the
world...from tro'ic to arctic...from sea level to altitudes of more than
!%,%%% feet," Clellan S. @ord concluded that "both abortion and
infanticide are universall( known....It is e*tremel( common...to find a
taboo on se*ual intercourse during the 'eriod when the mother is
nursing....In nearl( ever( instance, the ?ustification for this
abstinence is the 'revention of conce'tion." .e also found instances of
man( kinds of contrace'tive 'ractices. Some are "clearl( magical." 4thers
"are relativel( effective mechanical devices 2for e*am'le3 inserting a
'ad of bark cloth or a rag in the vagina...2and3 attem'ts to flush out
the seminal fluid with water after intercourse...."
In the !;H%s there was a widel(5re'orted estimate that E million &.S.
women lacked access to contrace'tion, but later anal(sis 'roduced a more
solid estimate of !.8 million women. Surve(s document that 'erha's !%
'ercent of children born in the &nited States in the !;G%s were the
result of lack of knowledge of or access to contrace'tion and could be
said to be "unwanted" b( the mothers at the time of conce'tion, and man(
of these mothers later became glad that the( had the children. If the
definition of "unwanted" included both the mother and the father, the
'ro'ortion of "unwanted" at conce'tion would be much lower (et.

)here continue to be some su''osed e*'erts and officials of anti5
'o'ulation5growth organi7ations who, on the basis of discredited
anthro'ological accounts, assert that 'oor 'eo'le do not know how babies
are made 5 a notion so sill( that it should not be necessar( even to
mention it. @or e*am'le, "not onl( are animals ignorant of the relation
between mating and offs'ring, but even modern man until the last few
thousand (ears was 'robabl( e+uall( ignorant. In fact, there were recent
re'orts of 'rimitive tribes in Australia who are similarl( unenlightened
toda(."
ore to be believed are such stories as the one about a "'rimitive"
tribesman who said to another, "9o (ou know what I told that white man> I
told him I don1t know how to make a bab(. And 5 get this 5 he believed
itI" )his ?oke has now been documented in astonishing fashion. Cver
since the !;8%s, argaret ead1s Coming of Age in Samoa has been
considered as great a classic in anthro'olog( as an( other book,
'roviding the foundation for an entire ruling theor( of human behavior.
In !;GD 9erek @reeman dis'roved her account, using a variet( of
materials. /ut more recentl( there emerged incontrovertible evidence
that ead was not onl( wrong, but had been hoa*ed.
If ead1s conclusion of !;8G had been correct it would have been the
most im'ortant conclusion of twentieth5centur( anthro'olog(. It is now
known that ead1s long5influential conclusion was wholl( false. In !;GD
I was able to demonstrate in detail that ead1s e*treme conclusion was
ver( definitel( not su''orted b( the relevant ethnogra'hic evidence. And
since then, there have been even more significant develo'ments.
It had long been a ma?or m(ster( that ead1s account of Samoan
se*ual behavior, on which her conclusion rests, is radicall( at odds with
the re'orts of all other ethnogra'hers. )his m(ster( was solved in
!;G#, when @a1a'ua1a @a1amu, who is listed in Coming of Age in Samoa as
one of her 'rinci'al informants, came forward to confess that in arch of
!;8H, as a 'rank, she and her friend @ofoa, had com'letel( hoa*ed
argaret ead b( telling her, when she +uestioned them, the antithesis of
the truth about Samoan se*ual behavior and values.
In Samoa the 'la(ing of such 'ranks, which the( call taufa1ase1e, is
common'lace....when ead 'ut to @a1a'ua1a, who was herself a tau'ou or
ceremonial virgin, the su''osition that she was 'romiscuous, she and
@afoa, with sidelong glances and 'inching one another, set about hoa*ing
her. )he( had no idea, sa(s @a1a'ua1a, that argaret ead was an author
and that their wild untruths would be 'ublished as facts in an
immensel( influential book.
After @a1a'ua1a1s testimon( had been carefull( checked b( Leulu
@elisi Va1a of the :ational &niversit( of Samoa... a sworn de'osition b(
@a1a'ua1a @a1amu has been lodged with the American Anthro'ological
Association in ,ashington, 9.C.
,hat testimon(, then, can we trust> Clear evidence that 'oor 'eo'le
consider their incomes and economic circumstances when thinking about
having children is found in their answers to +uestions about the
disadvantages and advantages of large families. A variet( of such
surve(s in various 'arts of Africa reveal that economic motivations are
indeed im'ortant.
Stud( after stud( shows that 'oor 'eo'le do indeed think about
economic circumstances in relationshi' to fertilit(. )he( do not 'ractice
"untrammeled co'ulation" or "breed without limit."
6eo'le in develo'ed countries, too, are accustomed to think about how
famil( si7e fits their incomes.
A-C:4/LC, @rance 5 a 8;5(ear5old grade school teacher gave
birth (esterda( to +uintu'lets, three bo(s and two girls....)he
children1s grandfather, a tailor, said, ")his certainl( creates a lot of
'roblems and (ou can1t sa( it1s reall( a ?o(ous event because (ou1ve got
to think about raising the little wolves."
Lee -ainwater interviewed "%; Americans about "their famil( design."
In re'resentative interviews with three 'airs of husbands and wives, all
mentioned economic factors 'redominantl(, though man( other factors were
also mentioned, of course.
".usband !$ ,ould 2I3 'refer two or four children> I guess two
because (ou can give two more than four. Jou can send them to college.
)he average famil( could not give four ver( much.... )wo is all we can
su''ort ade+uatel(.
,ife !$ )wo, but if I had loads of mone( I would want loads of
kids.... If I had lots of mone(, enough for full5time hel', and 'lent( of
room I would like half5a5do7en or more.
.usband 8$ I think two is ideal for the average American famil(
based on an average income of FE,%%% 2!;E% dollars3. I don1t see how the(
could 'ro'erl( 'rovide for more children. 6ersonall( I1d take a do7en if
I could afford them. I wanted four when we got married or as man( as the
famil( income could su''ort.
,ife D$ I think three is ideal because I feel this is all most
'eo'le are e+ui''ed to raise, to give a good education and send them
through college.
Another stud( asked a sam'le of &.S. wives wh( their intended famil(
si7e was not bigger. )he first reason given b( more than half of the
res'ondents was economic.
In brief, even though income in rich countries is am'le to 'rovide a
bare subsistence for man( more children than the average famil( chooses
to have, 'eo'le sa( that their incomes constrain their famil( si7e. In
all societies, rich or 'oor, 'eo'le give much thought to se*, marriage,
and childbearing. @ertilit( is ever(where sub?ect to some rational
control, though the degree to which achieved famil( si7es match the
desired si7e varies from grou' to grou'. Cou'les in some countries 'lan
their famil( si7e more carefull( and are better able to carr( such 'lans
to fruition than are cou'les in other countries because of differences in
contrace'tive technolog(, infant mortalit(, and communication between
husband and wife. /ut certainl( there is strong evidence that 'eo'le
ever(where think rationall( about fertilit(B hence income and other
ob?ective forces influence fertilit( behavior to a significant degree,
ever(where and alwa(s.
An interesting e*am'le of how home economics affects fertilit(
occurred in Cast Aerman( following the introduction in !;#H ofincentives
to have more children. 6rior to that time fertilit( in Cast and ,est
Aerman( had been much the same. /ut the incentives raised marital
fertilit( at least tem'oraril( <'erha's ?ust having some births occur
earlier= and more 'ermanentl( raised e*tra5marital fertilit(, as figure
8"58 shows.
Fig 24-22on @ig " from onnier in 6o'ulation.3
)he fact that there are large families in some 'oor countries does not
'rove the absence of rational 'lanning in matters of fertilit(. /ehavior
that is reasonable in London or )ok(o ma( well be unreasonable in a
)ibetan or African village. )he costs of rearing children are relativel(
less, and the economic benefits of having children are relativel(
greater, in 'oor agricultural communities than in well5off urban 'laces.
)herefore, even though the 'rimar( motive for having children 5 in
:igeria as in @rance 5 surel( is that cou'les want children for the
satisfactions the( give, the economic conditions ma( differ in such a
manner that the same desire for children that sensibl( im'lies a two5 or
three5child famil( in a cit( ma( im'l( a five5 or si*5child famil( in a
'oor rural area. )he economics of child5rearing involve the amounts of
time and mone( that 'eo'le s'end on children, on the one hand, and the
amounts of work that children 'erform and the old5age su''ort the( render
after the( grow u', on the other hand. It costs more time and mone( to
rear children in urban than in rural areas, and children in rural areas
of 'oor countries 'erform more work than children elsewhere. .ence the
larger average si7e of rural families ma( reflect sound economic
'lanning. ,e see this vividl( in the following accounts from the 'eriod
of ver( high 'o'ulation growth a decade or two ago.
/A/A-6&-, India, a( 8", !;#H 5 unshi -am, an illiterate
laborer who lives in a crude mud hut in this village H% miles north of
:ew 9elhi, has no land and ver( little mone(. /ut he has eight children,
and he regards them as his greatest wealth.
"It1s good to have a big famil(," r. -am e*'lained as he stood in
the shade of a leaf( neem tree, in a hard dr( court(ard crowded with
children, chickens and a do7ing cow.
")he( don1t cost much, and when the( get old enough to work the(
bring in mone(. And when I am old, the( will take care of me...."
r. -am, who sa(s he is not likel( to have more children, is aware
that the Aovernment is now cam'aigning hard with the birth5control
slogan, "Sto' at two." /ut he has no regrets.
"Children are the gods1 gift," he said, as several of his own
clustered around him. ",ho are we to sa( the( should not be born>"
.ere are two more e*am'les, this time through the e(es of an Indian
writer.
Let us take a few e*am'les. @akir Singh is a traditional water
carrier. After he lost his ?ob, he remained as a messenger for those Jat
families which used to be his Ja?mans, barel( earning a subsistence
living. .e has eleven children, ranging in age from twent(5five to
four....@akir Singh maintains that ever( one of his sons is an asset. )he
(oungest one 5 aged five or si* 5 collects ha( for the cattleB the older
ones tend to those same cattle. /etween the ages of si* and si*teen,
the( earn !E% to 8%% ru'ees a (ear, 'lus all their meals and necessar(
clothing. )hose sons over si*teen earn 8,%%% ru'ees and meals ever( (ear.
@akir Singh smiles and adds, ")o raise children ma( be difficult, but
once the( are older it is a sea of ha''iness."
Another water carrier is )haman Singh.....e welcomed me inside his
home, gave me a cu' of tea <with milk and "market" sugar, as he 'roudl(
'ointed out later=, and said, "Jou were tr(ing to convince me in !;H%
that I shouldn1t have an( more sons. :ow, (ou see, I have si*
sons and two daughters and I sit at home in leisure. )he( are grown u'
and the( bring me mone(. 4ne even works outside the village as a
laborer. Jou told me I was a 'oor man and couldn1t su''ort a large
famil(. :ow, (ou see, because of m( large famil(, I am a rich man."
.and in hand with the short5run reduction in fertilit( when times
worsen in a 'oor countr( is the short5run increase in fertilit( that
accom'anies a betterment of conditions. Consider, for e*am'le, this
re'ort about an Indian village$
In the earl( !;E%1s, conditions were distinctl( unfavorable. )he
large influ* of refugees from 6akistan was accom'anied b( severe
disru'tion of economic and social stabilit(. ,e were re'eatedl( told b(
village leaders on the 'ancha(at, or elected village council, that
im'ortant as all of their other 'roblems were, "the biggest 'roblem is
that there are ?ust too man( of us." /( the end of the stud( 'eriod in
!;H% a remarkable change had occurred. ,ith the introduction of more
irrigation canals and with rural electrification from the /hakra
:angal 9am, and with better roads to trans'ort 'roduce to market,
im'roved seed and other benefits of communit( develo'ment, and es'eciall(
because there were increasing em'lo(ment o''ortunities for 6un?abi bo(s
in the cities, a general feeling of o'timism had develo'ed. A common
res'onse of the same village leaders now was, ",h( should we limit our
families> India needs all the 6un?abis she can get." 9uring this
transitional 'eriod an im'ortant reason for the failure of education in
famil( 'lanning was the favorable 'ace of economic develo'ment. Children
were no longer a handica'.
Infant mortalit( is another influence that uneducated villagers take
into account ver( rationall(. In !;#! I asked a few men in Indian
villages wh( the( have as man( or as few children as the( do. A common
answer came from a man with five children, ")wo, ma(be three will die,
and I want to have at least two that live to become adults." /ut b( the
!;;%s villagers in most 'arts of the world know that the infant mortalit(
rate has fallen ver( fast in recent decades, and the( need not have man(
more babies than the number of children the( want to raise to maturit(.
)his change in conditions, and in 'eo'le1s 'erce'tion of the change, is
'art of the reason that fertilit( has fallen ra'idl( in so man(
countries, as seen in figure 8D5E.
althus1s theor( of 'o'ulation asserts that because fertilit( goes u'
if income goes u' due to new technical knowledge of agriculture, the
e*tra 'o'ulation eats u' the additional income. )hat is, althus asserted
a tendenc( for humankind to be s+uee7ed down to a long5run e+uilibrium of
living at bare subsistenceB this is althus1s "dismal theorem." /ut when
we e*amine the facts about fertilit( and economic develo'ment <as althus
himself finall( did, after he +uickl( dashed off his first edition=, we
find that the stor( does not end with the short5run increase in the
birthrate as income first rises. If income continues to rise, fertilit(
later goes down.
)here are two main reasons for this long5run decline in fertilit(.
@irst, as income rises in 'oor countries, child mortalit( falls because
of better nutrition, better sanitation, and better health care <though,
in the twentieth centur(, mortalit( ma( decline in 'oor countries even
without a rise in income.= As cou'les see that fewer births are
necessar( to achieve a given famil( si7e, the( ad?ust fertilit( downward.
Cvidence on res'onse of families to the death of a child buttresses the
overall historical data. Several careful researchers have shown that
there is a strong relationshi' between the death of a child and
subse+uent births in a famil(. )hat is, cou'les 'roduce additional
children to "make u' for" children who die. If we also consider that
families decide to have additional children to allow for deaths that
might occur in the future, the relationshi' between child mortalit( and
fertilit( shows that childbearing is res'onsive to the famil(1s
circumstances.
A rise in income also reduces fertilit( in the long run through a
cluster of forces set in motion b( increased income, including <a=
increased education, which im'roves contrace'tion, makes children more
e*'ensive to raise, and 'erha's alters 'eo'le1s tastes about having
childrenB and <b= a trend to cit( living, where children cost more and
'roduce less income for the famil( than the( do in the countr(.
)he decline in mortalit( and the other forces set in motion b(
economic develo'ment reduce fertilit( in the long run. )his 'rocess is
the famous "demogra'hic transition." ,e see it ver( clearl( in the
e*cellent historical data for Sweden shown in figure 8D5HB notice how the
death rate began to fall before the birthrate fell. And we can see the
same relationshi' between income and birthrate in a cross5sectional look
at various countries of the world <figure 8"5D=.
FIGURE 24-3[12-2]. 6er Ca'ita Aross 9omestic 6roduct 6lotted
Against the Crude /irthrate for Selected :ations
@rom the !;D%s through the !;E%s, most demogra'hers were convinced
that the demogra'hic transition would take 'lace in develo'ing countries
in the twentieth centur(, ?ust as it had earlier ha''ened in Curo'e and
:orth America. )hen in the !;H%s demogra'hers began to worr( that
fertilit( would not fall in 'oor countries even after mortalit( fell. /ut
in the !;#%s, evidence showed that fertilit( was indeed falling in at
least some develo'ing countries. /( the time of the first edition ofthis
book in !;G!, I wrote that we could be reasonabl( sure that the Curo'ean
'attern of demogra'hic transition will also a''ear in other 'arts of the
world as mortalit( falls and income rises, though there were still man(
doubters, es'eciall( those who run anti5natalist organi7ations. In the
!;;%s we can take out the +ualifier "reasonabl(", because the fall has
a''eared almost ever(where, and in all the countries with large
'o'ulations, as seen in figure 8D5E.
,orth mentioning because man( 'ersons believe that teen5age
childbearing in the &nited States runs counter to the general 'attern,
fertilit( has fall among the !E5!; age grou' over the long run, as figure
8"5" shows, though the latter half of the !;G%s showed an u'turn too
brief to be meaningful.
Fig 24-42teen from :C.S t('ed table 8, and disk.3
So the foundation is gone from under althus1s grand theor( and his
dismal theorem. At the heart of althus1s theor( 5 +uoting from his last
edition 5 is the following$ "<!= 6o'ulation is necessaril( limited b( the
means of subsistence. <8= 6o'ulation alwa(s increases when the means of
subsistence increases." )he histor( of the demogra'hic transition and the
data in @igure !85>KK dis'rove the second 'ro'osition. )he first
'ro'osition is shown to be false in cha'ters E5G.

Contrar( to althus, 'eo'le res'ond to the two ma?or influences on
fertilit( 5 mortalit( and level of income 5 in an economicall(
a''ro'riate fashion. 4f course there are dela(s, es'eciall( in the
res'onse of societ( as a whole to changes in the cost of a famil(1s
children to other 'eo'le in the communit(. /ut overall, the fertilit(5
ad?ustment s(stem works in such a fashion that it leads to an o'timistic
outlook rather than the "dismal" view described b( althus in the famous
first edition of his book, before he changed that view in the second
edition.
.ow man( children would families have if material resources 'resented
no constraints at all> )hat is, what would be the level of fertilit( if
child mortalit( were as low as in advanced countries now, and if income
were ver( high 5 sa(, ten times the level in the &.S. now> ,e have little
basis for 'redicting whether 'o'ulation would tend to increase, decrease,
or stabili7e in the long run in such a case, because there is no
e*'erience to learn from. It is clear, however, that where the material
conditions of income and child mortalit( are harsh, fertilit( ad?usts to
meet those conditions, even among 'oor and uneducated 'eo'le.
/ut what about the costs that big families im'ose on societ( as a
whole> Certainl( this is a reasonable and im'ortant +uestion, because an(
child does im'ose some monetar( and non5monetar( costs on 'ersons other
than the 'arents. )here are two 'arts to the answer$
!= An additional 'erson causes not onl( costs but also benefits for
others in a variet( of wa(s that we shall discuss later. )he central
+uestion ma( be e*'ressed +uantitativel($ ,hich are greater in various
(ears following a child1s birth, the costs or the benefits to others>
4nce we know whether these "e*ternal" effects are 'ositive or negative in
an( given (ear, we must ne*t ask$ Are the e*ternal effects large or small
com'ared with other costs and benefits in the econom(> )hese matters are
discussed in cha'ters %% and %%.
8= )he burden u'on the communit( of an additional child de'ends ver(
greatl( u'on the nature of the economic5'olitical s(stem. In Chinese
cities, where housing and trans'ortation s(stems are owned b( the
government, an additional child im'oses a much larger burden u'on others
than in the &nited States, where schooling is the onl( ma?or cost of a
child that the 'arents do not 'a( from their own 'ockets. If the 'arents
'a( the full costs of a child, their individual child5bearing decisions
are likel( to be o'timal for the communit( at large.
SUMMARY
At the heart of much of contem'orar( theori7ing about 'o'ulation
growth is the belief that, as one widel( read author 'ut it, ")he
althusian laws of 'o'ulation are as valid toda( as when the( were
formulated" <in the first edition of his Cssa(=. )he core of those "laws"
is that 'o'ulation increases faster than does the means of sustenance
until the standard of living has fallen to bare subsistence. )hose who
urge this 'ro'osition su''ort it with analogies drawn from other forms of
life. ")he germs of e*istence contained in this earth, if the( could
freel( develo' themselves, would fill millions of worlds in the course of
a few thousand (ears. :ecessit(, that im'erious, all5'ervading law of
nature, restrains them within the 'rescribed bounds. )he race of 'lants
and the race of animals shrink under this great restrictive law and men
cannot b( an( efforts of reason esca'e from it."
'age L MultresM tchar8" @ebruar( #, !;;"