This document discusses risk management and risk acceptance criteria. It defines risk as the probability of consequences occurring, and outlines direct and indirect consequences of events. General risk acceptance considers human safety, calibration, and optimization including life quality indexing. Risk matrices assess risk based on probability and consequence severity levels. Performance-based design assesses the probability of structural failure given hazard occurrence and establishes target reliability levels. Risk management involves safety measure evaluation based on investment costs, risk reduction, and acceptable implied cost of averting fatalities. Periodic review is concluded as important for implementation of risk-based approaches.
This document discusses risk management and risk acceptance criteria. It defines risk as the probability of consequences occurring, and outlines direct and indirect consequences of events. General risk acceptance considers human safety, calibration, and optimization including life quality indexing. Risk matrices assess risk based on probability and consequence severity levels. Performance-based design assesses the probability of structural failure given hazard occurrence and establishes target reliability levels. Risk management involves safety measure evaluation based on investment costs, risk reduction, and acceptable implied cost of averting fatalities. Periodic review is concluded as important for implementation of risk-based approaches.
This document discusses risk management and risk acceptance criteria. It defines risk as the probability of consequences occurring, and outlines direct and indirect consequences of events. General risk acceptance considers human safety, calibration, and optimization including life quality indexing. Risk matrices assess risk based on probability and consequence severity levels. Performance-based design assesses the probability of structural failure given hazard occurrence and establishes target reliability levels. Risk management involves safety measure evaluation based on investment costs, risk reduction, and acceptable implied cost of averting fatalities. Periodic review is concluded as important for implementation of risk-based approaches.
This document discusses risk management and risk acceptance criteria. It defines risk as the probability of consequences occurring, and outlines direct and indirect consequences of events. General risk acceptance considers human safety, calibration, and optimization including life quality indexing. Risk matrices assess risk based on probability and consequence severity levels. Performance-based design assesses the probability of structural failure given hazard occurrence and establishes target reliability levels. Risk management involves safety measure evaluation based on investment costs, risk reduction, and acceptable implied cost of averting fatalities. Periodic review is concluded as important for implementation of risk-based approaches.
Regensburg, Germany OUTLINE 1. Introduction 2. Risk definition 3. General risk acceptance criteria 4. Developments in current standards 5. Risk Management and Safety measures 6. Conclusions Risk definition a) Individual Risk b) Societal Risk Risk = Likelihood x Consequences R = p x C (expected losses per year) 4 Direct Consequences those first order consequences which occur immediately after an event Fatalities Injuries Repair and replacement of damaged or destroyed public and private structures Relocation costs/temporary housing Loss of business inventory/agriculture Loss of income/rental costs Community response costs Cleanup costs 5 Indirect Losses may emerge much later, and may be much less easy to attribute directly to the event Loss of income Input/output losses of businesses Reductions in business /personal spending ripple effects Loss of institutional knowledge Mental illness Bereavement Factors affecting risk acceptance Voluntary vs. involuntary Controllability vs. uncontrollability Familiarity vs. unfamiliarity Short/long-term consequences Presence of existing alternatives Type and nature of consequences Derived benefits Presentation in the media Information availability Personal involvement Memory of consequences Degree of trust in regulatory bodies. General Risk Acceptance Criteria Human Safety (Societal Risk - ALARP) Calibration Optimization (including human life - LQI) II General Risk Acceptance Criteria II General Risk Acceptance Criteria Domains of experienced fatalities Domains of experienced fatalities Domains of experienced fatalities Domains of experienced fatalities ALARP Risk Acceptance Criteria (societal risk) 1,00E-09 1,00E-08 1,00E-07 1,00E-06 1,00E-05 1,00E-04 1,00E-03 1,00E-02 1,00E-01 1,00E+00 1 10 100 1000 Number of Fatalities Annual Frequency Maximum allowable frequency Lower limit of ALARP region ALARP Region Hazard probability levels Class Frequency Events / year A frequent >10 B occasional 1-10 C remote 0.1-1 D improbable 0.01-0.1 E incredible 0.001-0.01 Hazard severity levels (Consequences) Class Severity Category Human losses 1 insignificant --- 2 marginal injuries 3 critical 1 4 severe 5 5 catastrophic 50 Risk Acceptability Matrix for risk verification AC: Acceptable NAC: Not Acceptable ALARP: As Low As Reasonably Practicable 1 2 3 4 5 A ALARP NAC NAC NAC NAC B ALARP ALARP NAC NAC NAC C AC ALARP ALARP NAC NAC D AC AC ALARP ALARP NAC E AC AC AC ALARP ALARP Example: dikes in Netherlands (Vrouwenvelder) 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 0 2 4 6 8 10 x 10 8 H [m] Economical optimal dike height Optimum Damage costs Construction costs Total costs Relation between Failure Probability p f and Reliability Index p f 10 -2 10 -3 10 -4 10 -5 10 -6 10 -7 10 -8 10 -9
2,33 3,09 3,72 4,27 4,75 5,20 5,61 6,00 Calibration through computation of values for various member types (piles, columns, beams etc. inherent in the codes) Cost evaluation including loss of human life Life Quality Index (LQI) LQI = g w e (1-w) g: g: g: g: the gross domestic product per person per year the gross domestic product per person per year the gross domestic product per person per year the gross domestic product per person per year e: the life expectancy at birth e: the life expectancy at birth e: the life expectancy at birth e: the life expectancy at birth w: w: w: w: the proportion of life spent in economic activity. the proportion of life spent in economic activity. the proportion of life spent in economic activity. the proportion of life spent in economic activity. ICAF ICAF ICAF ICAF Implied Implied Implied Implied cost cost cost cost of of of of averting averting averting averting a a a a fatality fatality fatality fatality ICAF = ge/4 (1-w)/(w) ICAF = 2 5 Mio. $ g max = g/2 (1-w)/(w) g = gross domestic product per year per person e = life expectancy at birth w =proportion of life spent in economic activity Optimization criterion Costs: Annualised investment costs Annual maintenance/operation costs Benefits: Human risk reduction Direct/Indirect financial loss reduction Developments in current Standards Limit State Design Partial safety factor format (Eurocodes) LRFD format (ACI) Checks at member level Performance Based Design FEMA, ASCE, ATC, NZBC Overall check of the structure under extreme loads (earthquake, blast, fire) Target Reliability (1 year ref. Period) new structures, ULS, component level Minor Moderate Large Large 3.1 3.3 3.7 Normal 3.7 4.2 4.4 Small 4.2 4.4 4.7 Consequences C o s t
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s a f e t y Background Eurocodes, JCSS, 2001 Performance Based Design PBD Loma Prieta earthquake, October 17, 1989 Oakland, California Magnitude: 6.9 Performance objectives Performance Level NEHPR (ATC, 1996) Performance Level Vision 2000 Short Description Operational Fully Functional No significant damage to structural and non-structural components Immediate Occupancy Operational No significant damage to structure; non-structural components are secure and most could function if utilities available Life Safety Life Safety Significant damage to structural elements; non- structural elements are secured but may not function Collapse Prevention Near Collapse Substantial structural and non- structural damage; limit margin against collapse EQ Probability levels EQ -Level Event Annual Exceedance Probability Mean Return Period I Frequent 4% 25 II Occasional 1.4% 72 III Rare 0.125% - 0.4% 250 - 800 IV Max Con- sidered 0.04% - 0.125% 800 - 2500 Performance Based Design Hazard Levels Performance Levels Hazard Level for EQ Operatio- nal Occupiable Damaged Life Safe, Major Damage Near Collapse Frequent (50%/ 50yrs) a b c d Occasional (20%/50yrs) e f g h Rare (10%/50yrs) i j k l Max considered (2%/50yrs) m n o p Commonly selected performance objectives PBD criteria p E . p NP|E < p T p E :propability of event p NP|E :conditional probability of no performance given event p T :acceptable probability PBD criteria (new structure) p E . p NP|E < p T p E : 2% in 50 years p NP|E : 10% p T : 4x10 -5 per year PBD criteria (old structure) p E . p NP|E < p T p E :4% in 50 years p NP|E :25% p T :2x10 -4 per year (5 times larger) P(C) = P(C|LE)P(L|E)P(E) < P A P(E) : probability of occurrence of E P(L|E) : probability of local failure, L, given the occurrence of E P(C|LE): probability of collapse given the occurrence of L due to E P A : acceptable probability of global failure RISK R: R = P(C) x C < R A (acceptable Risk) Probability of collapse Consequences of collapse Global failure extreme events (storm, flood) Identifical and modelling of relevant accidental hazards Assessment of damage states to structure from different hazards Assessment of the performance of the damaged structure Assessment of the probability of occurence of different hazards with different intensities Assessment of the probability of different states of damage and corresponding consequences for given hazards Assessment of the probability of inadequate performance(s) of the damaged structure together with the corresponding consequence(s) Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Identifical and modelling of relevant accidental hazards Assessment of damage states to structure from different hazards Assessment of the performance of the damaged structure Assessment of the probability of occurence of different hazards with different intensities Assessment of the probability of different states of damage and corresponding consequences for given hazards Assessment of the probability of inadequate performance(s) of the damaged structure together with the corresponding consequence(s) Identifical and modelling of relevant accidental hazards Assessment of damage states to structure from different hazards Assessment of the performance of the damaged structure Assessment of the probability of occurence of different hazards with different intensities Assessment of the probability of different states of damage and corresponding consequences for given hazards Assessment of the probability of inadequate performance(s) of the damaged structure together with the corresponding consequence(s) Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Risk management and safety measures a) Interpretation of new data b) Definition of cost-based acceptance criteria c) Implementation of safety measures d) Periodic review Evaluation of safety measures C Ik investment costs (including design and construction costs) C Ak annual maintenance/operation costs T desired lifetime of the measure dR k risk reduction due to measure k divided into : dR Hk reduction related to human risk dR Ck reduction related to economic risk (direct and indirect costs) (C Ik x (T))/T + C Ak < ICAF x dR Hk + dR Ck Conclusions Use of risk based methodologies Implementation of risk acceptance criteria Performance based approach Protection/mitigation measures Cost-benefit analyses Periodic review
