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Equity Research SA Real Estate: Office vacancy Q1 Sector Insight Office vacancy rates in Q1 reduced by 20bps to 11% since Q4 2013. However the vacancy rate is still 40bps higher than Q1 2013. The most important data point in this survey in our view was the absorption of close to 400k sqm of space during the quarter. This is positive as this is the same amount of space absorbed during the entire year 2013. Quarterly absorption rates are quite volatile and perhaps seasonal, however it will be very difficult in our view for the 2014 net absorption rate to fall below the 400k sqm for the full year. We are mindful of the fact that according to the survey there is around 800k sqm of supply in the market. This is also consistent with Stats SA data on plans passed. We estimate this could take around 18 months to complete, however we think that 600k sqm of this could be absorbed, assuming GDP growth rate of around 2%. Therefore we think the increase over the next two years will not be more than 1.5%. We also see signs that the supply overhang is coming to an end. The Stats SA data shows a slow down in the plans passed. This is probably also due to the fact that market rentals have been stagnant even though building costs have been rising. This has made projects in the office sector less feasible. We also believe the recent hike in interest rates could play a factor in slowing down supply as the margin for developers will be negatively impacted. Sandton has experience a sharp increase in vacancy rates of 6% over the last six months. The total vacancy rate here stands at 14% and this is negative for Redefine and Growthpoint which have significant exposure to the node. However this increase was due to the construction of new P- grade buildings - we do think that there is a good chance that these are let and that surround nodes with poorer quality stock (e.g Woodmead, Rivonia and Illovo) will lose tenants to Sandton. The Pretoria region is quite strong particularly in Menlyn and the surrounding nodes. In our view, Menlyn is becoming the Sandton equivalent in the Pretoria region. This is quite positive for Emira which has a Pretoria bias. However we note that Centurion is experiencing high vacancy rates which have increased over the past six months. According to various management teams this increase has mainly been in the Centurion CBD and areas behind the mall, which are predominantly B- grade in nature. The A-grade vacancy rates here have decreased over the last six months and are quite low at 7.6%. In aggregate we think this is a slightly positive reading in that absorption rates, while low, are stable and positive. Furthermore we think that supply will reduce in the next two years and that we could see vacancy reductions in the sector during 2016.
16 April 2014 Research Analysts Vincent Anthonyrajah vincent.anthonyrajah@sbgsecurites.com
+27 11 415 4246
Demand holding up well, absorption strong
Equity Research 2 16 April 2014 Stable overall, but P-grade vacancy rates rising We are a little surprised at how stable the vacancy rates in the office sector have been over the past year. This is despite the significant amount of supply that has been completed during FY13. According to the SAPOA survey, there was an increase in total space of 450k sqm during the quarter - yet the vacant space only increased by around 20k sqm. This implies an absorption rate of 430k sqm for the quarter alone. We are a little sceptical of the absolute size, however, given the flat vacancy trend over the past 24 months, and increasing supply - we are comfortable with a net absorption rate of roughly 400k per annum. We are always a little cautious of drawing firm conclusions from the survey but there are a few points we would make: It could be that the survey has simply incorporated more existing buildings that were well-let (or fully occupied) which would boost the net absorption figure; Furthermore it could be that a few large buildings were completed and occupied during the quarter which would add volatility, and perhaps seasonality to the quarterly absorption number.
Figure 1: SAPOA office vacancy rates: P-grade experienced a spike in vacancy rates due to completions
Equity Research 3 16 April 2014 In Figure 2 below we show our estimates of the absorption rate (as % of existing space). Note that the absorption rate for 2014 is based on the actual survey data for Q1 only and is not annualised. Therefore in Q1 2014 alone 2% of total space had been absorbed. As mentioned before, quarterly absorption is quite volatile. We would point out however that unless tenants are liquidated, it would be almost impossible for net absorption for the year to be less than that in Q1. This does suggest that with the current development pipelines of circa 800k sqm (5% of existing supply, which could materialise over 18 months) around 600ksqm could be absorbed. This assumes the current run- rate continues. Therefore we would not be surprised of the vacancy rate in aggregate rises by less than 1.5%. We believe this is a realistic assumption as the economic growth forecast by Standard Bank research is not materially different to that experienced over 2012 and 2013. In other words, 600k sqm absorption every 18 months is plausible in a 2% GDP growth scenario. It also seems a bizarre co-incidence, but the net absorption rate is not much different to the actual real GDP growth rate over the past four years. Figure 2: GDP growth rate and SBG absorption rate estimate
Source: SBG Securities Research analysis, Statistics SA, SAPOA
Figure 3: Total increase in supply and net absorption
Source: SBG Securities Research analysis, Statistics SA, SAPOA
-1.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 E Absorption rate (estimate) GDP growth 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 E Increase in supply (SAPOA) Net absorption
Equity Research 4 16 April 2014 Aside - does the percentage of pre-let projects matter? In discussions with various management teams and investors alike we have noted that the pre-let percentage (or non-speculative developments) are used as a gauge of the potential impact on vacancy rates. However we would point out that this could include a level of double-counting. For example the Discovery building that Growthpoint is developing is effectively 100% pre-let. However we know for a fact that Discovery will be vacating its premises. Therefore we find that the pre-let/speculative development data can be misleading. We prefer to simply look at the total supply relative to an estimate of net absorption. Supply looks to have peaked We would also point out that the supply overhang that has been a key feature in the investment case for the office sectors seems to have peaked. We have had 3 consecutive quarters of reduced completions (Figure 4) and in Figure 5 we see that over the last three quarters of 2013 new plans passed have also started to reduce. Should this continue, this could point to overall vacancy rates reducing in about 2 years time. Figure 4: Supply momentum slowing down
Equity Research 5 16 April 2014 Figure 5: YoY change in plans passed by quarter
Source: Stats SA, SBG Securities analysis Figure 6: Vacancy rates and building activity in the office sector
Source: Stats SA, SBG Securities analysis, SAPOA, IPD
Rental growth still stagnant - reversion risk remains high The one aspect which is still worrying about the office sector is that asking rentals have remained flat for almost five years. In real terms these have decreased. Similarly relative to construction costs, the rental rates are not shrinking. We believe that this ties in with the slow-down in plans passed and we think that unless asking rental growth picks up materially, we are unlikely to see supply increasing beyond the current rate of 4%-5% of existing supply. In fact over the next three years we think it is likely that this ratio will decrease, given that vacancy rates are high and rental growth is non-existent. -0.80 -0.60 -0.40 -0.20 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 200 000 400 000 600 000 800 000 1 000 000 1 200 000 1 400 000 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 IPD Office vacancy (%, RHS) SAPOA Office vacancy (%, RHS) Office passed Office complete
Equity Research 6 16 April 2014 Figure 7: A-grade asking rentals
Source: SBG Securities analysis, SAPOA Another key factor which will be dampening rental rates is that vacancy rates in very high quality space (P-grade office) have increase quickly over the past year. We believe that in order to fill this space landlords may have to bring the asking rates closer to the upper range of A-grade asking rentals. This will likely place downward pressure on A-grade market rentals (or cap A-grade rental growth). Geographic trends In the Johannesburg area we find that of the larger nodes Sandton has deteriorated the most over the past six months. This is not entirely surprising given the amount of building activity. However, the fact that most of this is P- grade space is positive for leasing prospects and we would expect pressure on the surrounding nodes to increase. There has been a good reduction of vacant space in Fourways, Woodmead and the CBD - which is surprising. The reduction in Fourways is positive for Capital Property Fund (CPL) which has been struggling to lease properties in the area. The reductions in Bryanston and Hyde Park are positive for Emira which has sizeable exposure to these nodes. Figure 8: Change in vacancy rates - six months to Q1 2014
Equity Research 7 16 April 2014 Figure 9: Vacancy rates
Source: SBG Securities analysis, SAPOA Sandton is a very important node for both Redefine and Growthpoint, and this data point may be viewed as negative for both these counters in the short- term.
The Cape Town nodes have seen good improvements across almost all nodes. The reductions in vacancy rates in Claremont and the Waterfront are positive for Growthpoint. Figure 10: Change in vacancy rates - six months to Q1 2014
Source: SBG Securities analysis, SAPOA It is only really the CBD which has quite high vacancy rates. This has been exacerbated by the completion of a large office tower in the Foreshore area of the CBD. 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 MELROSE/WAVERLEY ILLOVO ROSEBANK HOUGHTON/KILLARNEY MORNINGSIDE MILPARK CONSTANTIA KLOOF CRESTA/BLACKHEATH to RANDPARK WOODMEAD MIDRAND BRYANSTON/EPSOM DOWNS PARKTOWN RANDBURG SUNNINGHILL HYDE PARK/DUNKELD BRAAMFONTEIN SANDTON & ENVIRONS BEDFORDVIEW FOURWAYS GREENSTONE/EDENVALE/MODDER CBD JOHANNESBURG NEWTOwN RIVONIA BRUMA -3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 WATERFRONT CLAREMONT PINELANDS CBD CAPE TOWN BELLVILLE CENTURY CITY RONDEBOSCH/NEWLANDS
Equity Research 8 16 April 2014 Figure 11: Vacancy rates
Source: SBG Securities analysis, SAPOA Pretoria has also been reasonably strong, with vacancy reductions across most of the nodes. We note the increase in vacancy rate in the Centurion area, which is negative for Emira. However, according to the company, these increases are in areas behind the shopping mall, closer to the CBD. This area is a little tired and the buildings are mostly B-grade and C-grade. Emira has most of its Centurion properties on West road (near the Gautrain station) - this section of Centurion is experiencing good demand. Recent new developments by Growthpoint have been well let, and the Gautrain is a strong underpin for demand here. We would also comment that SAPOA has changed the definition (demarcation) of the Centurion node which also adds a level of volatility to this data point. The areas from Menlyn to Brooklyn have experienced a good reduction in vacancy rates. We note that the vacancy rates in these nodes are also quite low relative to the national levels. This is positive for Emira which also has significant exposure here. Figure 12: Change in vacancy rates - six months to Q1 2014
Equity Research 9 16 April 2014 Figure 13: Vacancy rates
Source: SBG Securities analysis, SAPOA
Total returns YTD - no clear sectoral themes We thought it would be interesting to point out that it's not clear whether the market has priced in any sectoral trends this year. For example Growthpoint has significant office exposure, in Sandton (albeit very good grade) - and it is one of the outperformers YTD. However RDF has also increased its office exposure in Sandton and it is one of the weaker performers. The recent corporate activity in the sector seems to be the overriding driver. For example the activity around Delta and Rebosis has clearly been received negatively by the market. Furthermore even though the fundamentals for Sycom are quite weak in our view, the performance has been quite good, due to Growthpoints recent acquisition of a stake in the company. Figure 14:
Source: SBG Securities Research analysis, Datastream
Equity Research 10 16 April 2014 Companies Mentioned (Price as of 15 Apr 2014) Capital Property Fund (CPLJ.J, R10.37, SELL, TP R10.00) Emira Property Fund (EMIJ.J, R14.16, BUY, TP R15.20) Growthpoint Properties Ltd (GRTJ.J, R24.75, SELL, TP R24.60) Rebosis Property Fund Ltd (REBJ.J, R11.32, SELL, TP R11.00) Redefine Properties (RDFJ.J, R9.98, HOLD, TP R10.50) Sycom Property Fund (SYCJ.J, R26.36, SELL, TP R24.10) Please refer to Fig 14 on page 9 for all other companies mentioned Disclosure Appendix Important Global Disclosures SBG Securities (Pty) Limited is the name provided to the Institutional Stock broking entity of The Standard Bank of South Africa Limited. The following analyst/s: Vincent Anthonyrajah certify, with respect to the companies or securities under analysis, that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about all of the subject companies and securities and (2) no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. SBG Securities (Pty) Limited Research Analyst receive compensation that is based, in part, on the overall firm revenues, which include investment banking revenues. See the Companies Mentioned section for full company names. Analysts stock ratings are defined as follows*: Buy (B): The stocks total return* is expected to be more than 20% (or more, depending on perceived risk) over the next 12 months. Hold (H): The stocks total return is expected to be in the range of 10-20% over the next 12 months. Sell (S): The stocks total return is expected to be less than 10% over the next 12 months. 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Any communication from Research on securities or companies that SBG Securities (Pty) Ltd does not cover is factual or a reasonable, non-material deduction based on an analysis of publicly available information or consensus forecasts *Total return is calculated as the sum of the stocks expected Capital Appreciation and expected Dividend Yield. *SBG Securities Small and Mid-Cap Advisor stocks: Stock ratings are relative to the JSE All-Share (ALSI) index, and SBG Securities. Small, Mid-Cap Advisor investment universe. **An analyst's coverage universe consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector.
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Equity Research 11 16 April 2014
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Equity Research 13 16 April 2014 Equity Research and Distribution Heads of Equity Research Global Sector and Macro Strategy and Commodities Marc Ter Mors (Global Equity Research) (27 11) 415 4265 Tim Clark (Head Metals and Mining) (27 11) 415 4295 Deanne Gordon (Head SA Strategy) (27 21) 712 0875 Adenrele Adesina (Nigeria) (234 706) 418 6632 Michael Starke (Diversified Mining) (44 203) 145 6515 Adele Fermoyle (SA Strategy) (27 11) 415 4429 Marcel Mballa-Ekobena (Kenya) (254 20) 326 8878 Lionel Therond (Head Oil and Gas) (44 203) 145 6645 Walter de Wet (Head Commodities) (27 11) 415 4176 Vedat Mizrahi (Turkey) (90 212) 367 3690 Farid Abasov (Oil and Gas) (44 203) 145 6737 Leon Westgate (Commodities) (44 203) 145 6822 Kim Silberman (SA Economics) (27 11) 415 4430 Melinda Moore (Commodities) (44 203) 145 6887 Samir Gadio (Africa) (44 203) 145 6774 Phumelele Mbiyo (Africa) (254 20) 363 8988 Sector and Company Research South Africa South Africa (continued) Turkey Financials Travel and Leisure Financials Voyt Krzychylkiewicz (Banks, Team Head) (27 11) 415 4254 Ewa Swart (27 11) 415 4262 Neslihan Karagoz (90 212) 367 3694 Voyt.Krzychylkiewicz@sbgsecurities.com Ewa.Swart@sbgsecurities.com Neslihan.Karagoz@unluco.com Risto Ketola (Insurance, Team Head) (27 11) 415 4257 Construction and Materials Real Estate Risto.Ketola@sbgsecurities.com Luresha Mudaliar (27 11) 415 4263 Oytun Altasli (90 212) 367 3689 Real Estate Luresha.Mudaliar@sbgsecurities.com Oytun.Altasli@unluco.com Vincent Anthonyrajah (27 11) 415 4246 Small and Mid Caps Airlines Vincent.Anthonyrajah@sbgsecurities.com Ewa Swart (27 11) 415 4262 Vedat Mizrahi (90 212) 367 3690 Metals and Mining Ewa.Swart@sbgsecurities.com Vedat.Mizrahi@unluco.com Tim Clark (Metals and Mining, Team Head) (27 11) 415 4295 TMT Huseyin Turan (90 212) 367 3691 Tim.Clark@sbgsecurities.com Jonathan Kennedy-Good (Telcos, Team Head) (27 11) 415 4253 Huseyin.Turan@unluco.com Heidi Sternberg (Diversified Mining) (27 11) 415 4259 Jonathan.Kennedy-good@sbgsecurities.com Consumer Heidi.Sternberg@sbgsecurities.com Can Oztoprak (90 212) 367 3692 Dr. David Davis (Gold) (27 11) 415 4247 Africa Can.Oztoprak@unluco.com David.Davis@sbgsecurities.com Financials TMT Justin Froneman (Platinum) (27 11) 415 4258 Adenrele Adesina (Nigeria) (234 706) 418 6632 Oytun Altasli (90 212) 367 3689 Justin.Froneman@sbgsecurities.com Adenrele.Adesina@stanbic.com Oytun.Altasli@unluco.com Setendra Naidoo (Platinum) (27 11) 415 4266 Marcel Mballa-Ekobena (Kenya) (254 20) 326 8878 Industrials Setendra.Naidoo@sbgsecurities.com Marcel.Mballa-ekobena@stanbic.com Can Ozguzel (90 212) 367 3678 Industrials Muyiwa Oni (Nigeria) (234 706) 418 1281 Can.Ozguzel@unluco.com Marc Ter Mors (27 11) 415 4265 Muyiwa.Oni@stanbic.com Vedat Mizrahi (90 212) 367 3690 Marc.Termors@sbgsecurities.com Anne Kahure (Kenya) (254 20) 363 8947 Vedat.Mizrahi@unluco.com Eckhard Goedeke (27 11) 415 4260 Anne.Kahure@stanbic.com Oytun Altasli (Industrial Conglomerates) (90 212) 367 3689 Eckhard.Goedeke@sbgsecurities.com Oil and Gas Oytun.Altasli@unluco.com Retail Gbenga Sholotan (Nigeria) (234 813) 861 4187 Construction and Materials Kaeleen Brown (27 83) 302 6296 Gbenga.Sholotan@stanbic.com Oytun Altasli (90 212) 367 3689 Kaeleen.Brown@sbgsecurities.com Construction and Materials Oytun.Altasli@unluco.com Consumer: Food, Beverages, Tobacco Martin Gregory Waweru (Kenya) (254 20) 363 8948 Oil and Gas Brendan Grundlingh (Team Head) (27 11) 415 4264 Martin.Waweru@stanbic.com Vedat Mizrahi (90 212) 367 3690 Brendan.Grundlingh@sbgsecurities.com TMT Vedat.Mizrahi@unluco.com Sumil Seeraj (27 11) 415 4256 Martin Gregory Waweru (Kenya) (254 20) 363 8948 Metals and Mining Sumil.Seeraj@sbgsecurities.com Martin.Waweru@stanbic.com Vedat Mizrahi (90 212) 367 3690 Health Care Vedat.Mizrahi@unluco.com Sidu Mtshali (27 11) 415 4261 Sidu.Mtshali@sbgsecurities.com Equity Sales South Africa
UK / Europe
US Ross Elliot (27 11) 415 7020 Christian Simpson (44 203) 145 6636 Nolan Menachemson (1 212) 407 5130 Graham York (27 11) 415 7019 Jasper Crone (44 203) 145 6711 Zoran Milojevic (1 212) 407 5135 Nick Higham (27 11) 415 7018 Turkey Marco Casas (1 212) 407 5183 Sub Saharan Africa Kagan Cevik (90 212) 367 3683 Selim Cevikel (1 212) 407 5110 Matthew Pearson (44 203) 145 6799 Tunc Yildirim (90 212) 367 3675 Alper Uyanik (1 212) 407 5134 Sales Trading South Africa