Handbooks in Central Banking

No.1

INTRODUCTION TO MONETARY POLICY

Glenn Hoggarth

Issued by the Centre for Central Banking Studies,

Bank of England, London EC2R 8AH
telephone 0171 601 5857, fax 0171 601 5860
May 1996

© Bank of England 1996

ISBN 1 85730 014 9
Also available in Russian as ISBN 1 85730 019 X
 Foreword

The series of Handbooks in Central Banking has grown out of the activities of the
Bank of England’s Centre for Central Banking Studies in arranging and delivering
training seminars and workshops, short programmes in London and technical
assistance for central banks and central bankers of countries across the globe.

Drawing upon that experience, the Handbooks are therefore targeted primarily at
central bankers, or people in related agencies or ministries. The aim is to present
particular topics which concern them in a concise, balanced and accessible manner,
and in a practical context; but they are not intended as a channel for new research.
This should, we hope, enable someone taking up new responsibilities within a central
bank quickly to assimilate the key aspects of a subject, although the depth of treatment
may vary from one Handbook to another. We trust that they will also be useful to
more experienced staff tackling new issues as their markets, institutions and
economies develop. While acknowledging that a sound analytical framework must be
the basis for any thorough discussion of central banking policies or operations, we
have generally tried to avoid too theoretical an approach. Slightly different.

We have aimed to make each Handbook reasonably self-contained, but

recommendations for further reading may be included, for the benefit of those with a
particular specialist interest. The views expressed in the Handbooks are those of the
authors and not necessarily those of the Bank of England.

The enthusiastic reception given to the first ten Handbooks, issued in 1996, means that
we now need to reprint a number of them; and at the same time we continue to extend
the series. We hope that our central banking colleagues around the world will
continue to find the Handbooks useful. If others with an interest in central banking
enjoy them too, we shall be doubly pleased.

We would welcome any comments on this Handbook or on the series more generally.

Simon Gray
Series Editor

1
2
 INTRODUCTION TO MONETARY POLICY

Glenn Hoggarth

Contents

Page

Abstract ...................................................................... 5

1 Introduction ............................................................... 7

2 The costs of inflation .................................................. 8

Costs of unanticipated inflation ................................... 8

Costs when inflation is anticipated ............................. 9

3 Transmission mechanism of monetary policy .......... 9

Quantity theory of money ............................................ 10

Overall transmission mechanism ................................ 12

4 Intermediate and final monetary targets ................ 16

Intermediate money targets ......................................... 18

Alternatives to monetary targets ................................. 23

5 Conclusions ................................................................. 24

References .................................................................... 26

3
4
 Abstract

The key aim of monetary policy for most central banks is to keep inflation
low and steady. However in a market-oriented economy, central banks
cannot control inflation directly. They have to use instruments such as
interest rates, the effects of which on the economy are uncertain. And they
have to rely on incomplete information about the economy and its
prospects. Some central banks use money growth or the exchange rate as
intermediate targets to guide policy decisions. Others take a more eclectic
approach and consider a range of factors.

Monetary policy has occupied much time of the world’s most distinguished
economists over the years. This Handbook provides an introductory
overview to the subject. Following the introduction in Section 1, Section 2
describes the main costs of inflation. The next section provides an
overview of the various routes by which monetary policy transmits through
the economy. And Section 4 describes the alternative targets which central
banks can use to guide policy. Some conclusions are provided in Section 5.

The purpose of this Handbook is to assist monetary policy practitioners -

those in central banks and governments who are advising and taking
decisions on monetary policy. Those new to the subject may, it is hoped,
find this a useful starting point for further reading and research.

5
6
 INTRODUCTION TO MONETARY POLICY

1 Introduction

The key aim of monetary policy for most central banks is to keep inflation
low and steady. Central banks are not, of course, indifferent to economic
growth and unemployment but believe that the best contribution they can
make to long-term economic growth is to aim for price stability, or
something close to it. In the short run, say over the period of a year, a
reduction of interest rates and an increase in the money supply can increase
demand and output in the economy but, unless output is below its potential,
only at the cost of an increase in inflation. Higher inflation, in turn,
reduces output again. In fact, the long - run effects of high inflation on the
economy are probably adverse. Recent comprehensive studies, covering a
large number of countries, suggest that, over ten-year periods, higher
inflation - particularly of more than 10-20% a year - is associated with
lower not higher economic growth. 1 In nearly all former centrally-planned
countries too, positive economic growth has resumed recently only after
inflation stabilised at relatively low rates.

In a market-oriented economy, central banks cannot control inflation

directly. They have to use instruments such as interest rates, the effects of
which are uncertain. And they have to rely on incomplete information about
the economy and its prospects. Decisions on monetary policy are based on
a variety of indicators. Some central banks use money growth or the
exchange rate as the sole guide to decisions. Others take a more eclectic
approach and consider a range of factors in assessing inflation conditions.

1
See Fischer (1993) and Barro (1995) in the list of references.

7
 2 The costs of inflation

There are a number of costs of inflation.

Costs of unanticipated inflation

Empirical evidence shows that higher rates of inflation are associated with
more variable, and therefore less predictable, inflation.2 Although difficult
to measure precisely, among the most significant costs of unanticipated
inflation are the following:

* Microeconomic costs. These affect the heart of the market economy.

An efficient allocation of goods and services depends on producers and
consumers having accurate information about the relative prices of goods
and services. Inflation in the economy makes it difficult for producers and
consumers to know whether an increase in the price of a good or service
actually represents a relative price increase or a general increase in the
price of all goods and services. A producer may temporarily supply more
and make unwarranted investments in extra capacity because he mistakes a
general price increase for a relative price increase. Moreover, borrowers
and savers may not know the real rate of interest. This uncertainty may
result in less efficient and/or lower investment, reducing, in turn, the rate of
economic growth and increasing its variability.

* Distributional costs. High inflation is unfair. Borrowers tend to

benefit at the expense of savers, who are seldom fully protected. The less
financially sophisticated, in particular, may suffer (eg, the elderly may find
that their lifetime savings become worthless).

* Resource costs. Some individuals and companies will expend

considerable effort to protect themselves against the effects of high and
variable inflation. Such initiative and ability could be put to uses more
beneficial to society.

2
See Barro (1995) in the references.
8
Costs when inflation is anticipated

There are costs of inflation even if it can be perfectly anticipated:

* 'Shoe leather' costs. Because it loses value, people hold less domestic
currency when there is inflation. More visits are needed to the bank to
obtain currency to purchase goods and services.

* 'Menu' costs. The costs to manufacturers and retailers of continually

revising upwards their selling prices.

* Distortions caused by the tax system, associated with operating a less

than perfectly indexed system which taxes nominal rather than real
quantities. For example, unless tax bands are fully indexed against
inflation, an increase in price and wage inflation will, in a progressive
income tax system, push people into higher tax brackets. This increases
people’s real tax burden.

3 Transmission mechanism of monetary policy

Low and non-volatile inflation is the main goal of central banks. However,
central banks cannot control inflation directly with the instruments at their
disposal, such as interest rates and reserve requirements. 3 Instead they need
to assess the various channels by which monetary policy affects prices and
output in the economy - the transmission mechanism. Inflation in an
economy can only be sustained through increases in the quantity of money.
Therefore a natural starting point in assessing the transmission mechanism
is the role of the money supply.

3
The instruments of monetary policy are described in Handbook No 10.

9
Quantity theory of money

The quantity theory of money provides a transparent framework in which to

analyse the relationship between the growth in the money supply and
inflation. By identity, the theory shows that the stock of the money supply
(M), multiplied by the speed it moves around the economy (velocity, V),
equals output measured in current prices (PY).

MV ≡ PY

However, the following assumptions need to be made if one is to conclude

that there is a direct systematic relationship between changes in the money
supply (money supply growth) and prices (price inflation):

* Velocity (V) of circulation - output in current prices divided by money

- is stable (velocity growth is zero), or at least, predictable. Whether this is
true is an empirical question.

* In the long run, real output (Y) is independent of the money supply
but is, rather, determined by the supply side of the economy - the amount
and productivity of the labour force, capital equipment, land and
technology. During a cyclical downturn, when actual output is below its
full potential, monetary (and fiscal) policy can be used to restore demand
and output without resulting in higher inflation. However, increases in
demand which attempt to raise output above its supply potential manage to
increase output only for a short period (see Table 1). In such cases,
inflation increases which, in turn, reduces output back to its initial level,
and money supply is seen to have a neutral impact on output - column (2).
In fact, empirical evidence suggests that if anything, in the long run, higher
inflation results in lower output growth than otherwise - column (3).

10
Table 1
Impact of a reduction in interest rates (increase in the money supply)
on inflation and real output

(1) (2) (3)

Short Run Short/Medium Run Long Run

(If actual output (If actual output (If actual output

is below potential) is above potential) is above potential)

inflation unchanged inflation increases inflation increases

actual output increases actual output returns actual and potential

to initial level output growth are
lower than would
have occurred
otherwise

Adverse supply shocks, such as an increase in oil prices, can affect relative
prices in the economy. But they only result in permanently higher general
inflation if the money supply is increased (interest rates are reduced) to
prevent output from falling. Such accommodatory monetary policies in the
face of adverse supply side shocks can put off the adjustment in output, but
only temporarily - the ensuing inflation eventually results in a decline in
output. Worse still, expectations of higher inflation may damage the long-
run growth potential of the economy.

More generally, irrespective of whether an initial increase in prices is

caused by an increase in demand or a reduction in supply, an increase in
price inflation can only be sustained by an increase in monetary growth. In
this sense “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon” 4 .

However, since lower interest rates (higher money supply) can temporarily
increase output, there is an incentive for myopic policy-makers to inflate,
especially, for example, in advance of parliamentary elections. This creates
an inflationary bias in the economy. It also makes

4
This oft-quoted explanation of the cause of inflation originates from Milton Friedman.

11
it more costly for policy-makers to reduce inflation should they so wish. A
tighter monetary policy reduces inflation, without first reducing output,
only if wage and price inflation expectations are immediately and fully
lowered. This requires policy-makers to be fully credible, which is rarely
the case in practice. A number of institutional arrangements have been
suggested to enhance the credibility of long-run policy intentions so as to
minimise the short-run loss in output from a tightening in monetary policy.
These include transparent and simple intermediate or final monetary policy
targets, and also central bank independence.

The quantity theory framework is sometimes criticised for being a “black

box”. Money goes into the box and prices come out of the other side. But
no explanation is given of how changes in money affect prices. Also, in
practice, most central banks implement monetary policy through changing
the short-term interest rate at which they lend to and/or borrow from the
banking system rather than through changing directly the quantity of the
money supply.

Changes in central bank interest rates affect the whole spectrum of interest
rates in the economy, particularly at the short end but also at longer
maturities. The lending and deposit rates of banks play an important role.
In less-developed financial markets, the banks are often the only source of
credit or haven for savings (other than hoarding bank notes or precious
metal), implying that movements in the banks' lending and deposit interest
rates and the quantity of lending and deposits will play an important role in
the transmission mechanism. Even in developed financial markets, the
banks remain special since they are the main source of credit for
households and small companies.

Overall transmission mechanism

Thus, the transmission mechanism is the term used to describe the various
routes through which changes in central bank monetary policy, including
the quantity of money, affect output and prices. As illustrated
diagrammatically in Figure 1 below, the quantity of money is only one,
albeit an important channel through which monetary policy may affect
prices and output. There are a number of other routes through which
interest rates may have an effect (the signs in the diamond figure show the
expected direction of the relationship). For instance:-

12
through domestic demand and output

Changes in central bank interest rates affect real demand and output
because in the short run, with inflation expectations unchanged, movements
in nominal interest rates are reflected in changes in real rates. In what
follows the impact of higher interest rates is described. Lower interest rates
have the opposite effect.

* Substitution effect. An increase in interest rates reduces the

attractiveness for individuals and companies of spending now rather than
later. Domestic credit, the quantity of money and real demand all decrease
(lines 1 and 2 in Figure 1).

* Income effect. Higher interest rates re-distribute income from

borrowers, such as the young and the government, to savers, such as the
middle-aged. This increases the spending power of savers but reduces that
of borrowers. Since savers have a lower propensity to spend than
borrowers, total expenditures decline. In addition, if lending rates increase
more than rates of return on assets, total incomes, and therefore, spending
decrease (line 3).

* Wealth effect. Higher interest rates usually reduce the price of assets
such as houses and shares. This decline in wealth discourages individuals
from spending their current income (line 3).

* Unless the economy is operating above capacity, lower demand will

put downward pressure on prices and costs in the economy. Companies
will reduce their profit margins, while workers will accept lower wages
(line 4).

* If workers and companies fully revise downwards their inflation

expectations when interest rates are increased, prices will decrease but real
demand and output will be unaffected, even in the short run (lines 5 and 6).

13
through the exchange rate

This channel has two parts:

* For countries with capital account convertibility, unexpected increases

in domestic interest rates (with interest rates in other countries unchanged)
will encourage a net capital inflow. If the exchange rate is not fixed, the
domestic currency appreciates to bring the balance of payments back into
balance.5 The more liberalised are the capital markets, and the closer that
domestic financial assets are substitutes for foreign assets, the larger the
exchange rate appreciation (line 7).

Figure 1
Transmission mechanism
Instrument Intermediate Targets Final Target

Credit/
Money supply

(-) (+)
1 (+) 2 (+)9 5 Domestic
channels
(-) 3 4 (+)

Nominal interest rates Real demand/output 6 (-) Prices

7 (-)(-) 8
(+) (-) External
channel

Exchange
rate1
(foreign currency
per domestic currency)

+/- shows the direction of effect;

1
A rise means that the domestic currency appreciates.

5
For countries with fixed exchange rates, unexpected increases in domestic interest rates result in capital inflows and an
increase in the money supply. This offsets the domestic contractionary channel of lower domestic credit.

14
* Exchange rate appreciation results in lower import prices, measured
in domestic currency terms. A reduction in the price of imports of finished
goods directly reduces consumer prices. Lower prices of imported inputs
and intermediate goods indirectly reduce consumer prices through first
lowering the costs of domestically produced goods and services (line 8).

A given increase in central bank interest rates is likely to prove more

powerful in reducing inflation where:

* Changes in official interest rates are more fully reflected in changes in

other interest rates in the economy and in the exchange rate. This is more
likely the more open and competitive the financial system and the more that
financial contracts are set on a floating basis, where interest rates vary
along with changes in central bank rates, rather than on a fixed interest rate
basis.

* Residents’ demand for domestic net liabilities (line 1), and foreign
demand for domestic assets (line 7), are sensitive to changes in interest
rates.

* Financial liabilities are large relative to GDP. This ratio should

increase with financial liberalisation.6

* For countries or sectors where financial liabilities exceed assets

(implying negative rather than positive income effects). For example, a
tightening in monetary policy should have a bigger (smaller) effect in
reducing the price of retail goods than investment goods if households’ net
floating-rate debts are bigger (smaller) than those of enterprises.

6
On the other hand, financial liberalisation also results in an increase in financial assets. However, evidence from a
number of developed economies suggests that the removal of quantity controls results in liabilities increasing more than
assets.

15
A given increase in central bank interest rates is likely to have a faster
effect in reducing inflation and lead to smaller short-term losses of output 7
where:

* Wage and price expectations are more sensitive to changes in official

interest rates and the money supply (lines 5 and 6). This sensitivity
increases with policy credibility - so that there is less expectation of
changes in interest rates being quickly reversed.

* Wages are sensitive to reductions in output and employment (line 4);

this sensitivity increases with, inter alia, the flexibility of the labour
market.

* Exchange rates are flexible (line 7).

* Domestic prices are sensitive to changes in the exchange rate (line 8).
This depends on import prices changing with the exchange rate (and
therefore on foreign exporters not varying their profit margins) and on the
impact of changes in import prices on domestic prices. This is larger where
imports are a large share of GDP, such as in small open economies, than in
large closed ones.

4 Intermediate and final monetary targets

The foregoing suggests that the transmission mechanism of monetary

policy is quite complex. Therefore, central banks use targets to guide their
policy decisions. There are two broad strategies which central banks adopt
when using their policy instruments to control inflation:

1 Base policy indirectly on an intermediate target such as the growth in

a particular monetary aggregate or the exchange rate. Here the central bank
changes its policy instrument to steer money/credit growth or the exchange
rate towards its targeted level (lines 1 and 2 respectively in Figure 2). It is
implicitly assumed that there is a predictable relationship between the
7
In certain circumstances, it is possible that lowering demand will result in permanently lower output; for example, if
workers who become unemployed are discouraged from looking for jobs or the capital stock is permanently reduced.
This effect is known as hysteresis.

16
intermediate target and future inflation along the lines suggested by the
quantity theory of money. The final target for inflation is usually stated in
general terms, such as “low inflation”.

Figure 2
Monetary policy reaction under different target regimes

Instrument Intermediate Targets Final Target

Credit/
Money supply

1
(+)

Nominal Prices
interest 3(+)
rates

(-)
2

Exchange
rate
(foreign currency
per domestic currency)

+/- denotes the direction of policy reaction;

1- policy reaction with an intermediate money/credit growth target; interest rates
are increased if monetary growth is above target and lowered if it is below
target;
2- policy reaction with an intermediate exchange rate target; interest rates are
increased if the exchange rate is weaker than target and lowered if it is stronger
than target;
3- policy reaction with a final inflation target; interest rates are increased if the
forecast of inflation is above target and lowered if it is below target.

2 Base policy directly on an explicit final target for inflation. A target

is usually set for future inflation, in order to allow for the time lag between
changes in monetary policy and its impact on inflation. Here policy is
changed on the basis of multiple intermediate variables on both the demand
and supply side of the economy rather than a single one. For example,
asset prices, inflation expectations, real output, credit growth, fiscal policy
17
and wage costs may all be monitored as well as money growth and the
exchange rate. Sometimes this information is summarised in a forecast for
inflation which then serves a similar role to a conventional intermediate
target. Interest rates are increased when future inflation is forecast to be
above target, and reduced when inflation is forecast to be below target (line
3 in Figure 2).

Intermediate money targets

For money growth (or the exchange rate) to serve as a useful indicator of
price inflation it is necessary that:

* there is a predictable relationship between money growth (or the

exchange rate) and future price inflation. This means that the intermediate
target serves as a useful guidepost for future inflation.

In addition, to serve as a useful intermediate target in operational terms:

* the central bank must have predictable control over money growth or
the exchange rate when operating its monetary instruments. In other words
monetary policy must be capable of guiding the intermediate variable
towards its target.

The quantity theory equation (M ≡ PY/V) discussed above is usually

adopted as the framework for such monetary targeting. The intermediate
monetary target can be made operational using the quantity theory
framework by the following steps: (i) set a desired final target for future
inflation, (ii) estimate the underlying potential growth of real output, and
(iii) predict the future trend in velocity growth. This yields an intermediate
target for money supply growth consistent with the final target for inflation.
In Germany - where the velocity growth of broad money has been quite
stable for the past twenty years - the Bundesbank uses this approach when
setting its intermediate target for broad money growth each year. A typical
example used in Germany is shown in Table 2 below. In the example,
inflation is targeted at 2% per annum, trend real output is assumed to grow
at 2¼% per annum and velocity of broad money (M3) is estimated to fall by
1% per annum. This yields a target (mid-point) growth of broad money of
just under 5½%8 .
8
To allow for some uncertainty in velocity growth, the Bundesbank usually sets a range around the 5½% mid-point of
M3 growth, such as 4-7% per annum.
18
Table 2
Setting a monetary target using the quantity theory equation: example
Germany
.
Final inflation target (P) 2%
.
Assumed trend in economic growth (Y) 2¼%
.
Estimate of velocity growth (V) -1%
.
Target of monetary growth (M) 5½%

However, there are a number of practical difficulties with the quantity

theory framework:

* There are various possible measures of output, Y, and money, M.

Each pair of measures for Y and M produces a different measure of
velocity, V. For the theory to be useful in practice, measures of Y and M
have to be found which produce a predictable measure of velocity.

* Potential output depends on the amount and productivity of the

factors of production. These are very difficult to measure and forecast,
particularly if an economy is undergoing large structural changes to
production such as in former centrally-planned countries. In addition, for
economies in transition, actual output - and therefore the gap between
potential output and actual - is difficult to measure because of the usually
sizeable unrecorded informal (or “grey”) economy.

* Which definition of money? Theory suggests it should be a measure

which can either be directly used as a means of payment or easily and
costlessly changed into one. But should this include time deposits and
foreign currency deposits? Even if they can be easily and costlessly
changed into a means of payment, it is unclear whether they are being held
primarily for this purpose - implying that they may be inflationary - or as

19
Table 3: Measures of the money supply
Measure Definition Advantages Disadvantages
Monetary base (M0) domestic currency + direct means of excludes other means
- also referred to as banks’ deposits at the payment; of payment (demand
base money and central bank consists only of central deposits and possibly
reserve money bank liabilities, which foreign currency cash)
must be within the and other balances
control of the central which can be easily and
bank cheaply transformed
into a means of
data available frequently payment
and without delay

M1 domestic currency in includes most means of less controllable than

circulation + demand payment M0
deposits held at banks
excludes time deposits
which may be
transferred cheaply and
quickly into money

Broad money (M2) M1 + time deposits and includes a broader includes time deposits
possibly foreign currency spectrum of close and (sometimes)
deposits held by residents substitutes for money foreign currency
at banks deposits which may be
held for the purpose of
saving rather than
spending

velocity is affected by
financial liberalisation

since it consists mainly

of liabilities of
commercial banks
rather than the central
bank, it is less
controllable in a
deregulated system
where commercial
banks have freedom to
set their own lending
and deposit rates and
the associated money
and credit quantities

Divisia weighted measure of attempts to measure the difficult to measure

money based on the ease conceptual definition of precisely and to obtain
of using different transactions money; the necessary data
components as a means of weights are usually
payment (“transactions inversely related to the
services”) “own” interest rate of the
money component; cash
is given the largest
weight and time deposits
the smallest

20
savings. Table 3 outlines some advantages and disadvantages of different
measures of money for targeting purposes. Narrow measures of money are
more controllable, more likely to be used as a means of payment, and can
be measured more accurately and with little delay. But, they exclude some
bank liabilities which may have an important effect on inflation. In
practice, various monetary aggregates have been targeted in different
countries and at different times - and some countries have even adopted
more than one aggregate at the same time. This reflects varying
experiences, in practice, regarding the stability of the velocity of money.

For a number of countries, including those undergoing financial

liberalisation and/or macroeconomic stabilisation (moving from a high to a
lower inflation environment), velocity has been difficult to predict (see
Table 4 below). Financial liberalisation usually results in a permanent
increase in the demand for broad money, so that the velocity of money - the
ratio of nominal GDP to the quantity of money - declines. Therefore an
increase in broad money growth during the process of liberalisation may
not be a precursor to higher future inflation. If this is not recognised, policy
may be tightened unnecessarily. Conversely, when the demand for money
declines and velocity increases, money growth will be more inflationary
than before. If this is not recognised, policy may be too loose. If there are
frequent unexpected changes in money velocity, pursuit of monetary
growth targets can have the disadvantage of causing frequent short-run
swings in interest rates and real output.

These problems mean that over the time horizon of most concern to
policy-makers, say two years, and in an environment of marked structural
changes to the macroeconomy and the financial system, the impact of
monetary policy on real output, and the velocity of circulation - even if it
can be measured - may be unpredictable. Under these circumstances some
flexibility in targeting is probably suitable even at the expense of some loss
in policy transparency. For example, target ranges for money growth may
be better than fixed points.

21
 Table 4: Impact of macroeconomic stabilisation and financial liberalisation
on the velocity of money
Definition : nominal Impact of macroeconomic Impact of financial liberalisation
GDP divided by- stabilisation
Monetary base velocity declines (velocity growth velocity increases (over the longer
temporarily declines) . The term)
monetary base is more attractive
relative to goods and services and cash:
foreign currency at lower inflation
rates. Also, since inflation is less - increase in alternative and more
variable at lower rates there will be convenient means of payments
less uncertainty of the likely cost of (cheques, debit and credit cards)
holding money
- technology resulting in
lower nominal interest rates reduce economising of cash holdings
the opportunity cost of holding cash (automated teller machines
or (non-interest bearing) deposits at (ATMs))
the central bank compared with
other financial assets free deposits at the central bank:

possibly a permanent increase in the - a greater range of liquid

time lag between changes in money interest-bearing assets will enable
growth and their effect on inflation, banks to economise on balances at
since at lower inflation rates the central bank
households and enterprises are less
eager to spend money quickly - more efficient payment systems
reduce the need for precautionary
deposits at the central bank

obligatory deposits at the central

bank:*

- a reduction in reserve
requirements reduces obligatory
deposits
Broad money as above, unless the own interest rate velocity declines
on broad money falls by the same
magnitude as (or more than) the in the short term, measured
inflation rate or interest rates on velocity falls as financial activity
other financial assets in the informal economy switches
back into the formal economy
(although this does not imply any
change in total financial activity)

in the longer run, more

competition bids banks’ deposit
rates up and their lending rates
down; time deposits, in particular,
should grow more quickly relative
to nominal GDP than before
* Obligatory deposits are usually, but not always, included within the definition of monetary base.

22
Alternatives to monetary targets

Mainly because of these difficulties in predicting the velocity of money, a

number of countries have abandoned intermediate monetary targets in
favour of either intermediate exchange rate targets, particularly in the case
of small open economies or, more recently for a number of developed
economies, final targets for future inflation.9

Exchange rate targets have the advantage of being transparent to the

general public and involve setting the exchange rate against a low inflation
anchor country such as Germany. Over time this will result in a
convergence of tradable prices and price inflation to foreign levels.10
Exchange rate targets mean that domestic policy is being set by the
monetary policy of the anchor country. Unlike monetary targets, exchange
rate targets avoid the short-run fluctuations in interest rates and real output
associated with unanticipated changes in the demand for money. With a
fixed exchange rate, changes in money demand are matched by a change in
money supply from abroad (through capital flows). They have
disadvantages, though, compared to monetary targets in face of marked
adverse changes to the real economy, such as a worsening in the terms of
trade or productivity or a loss of export markets. Fixing the exchange rate
involves fixing a relative price and prevents an adverse real shock to the
economy being absorbed by devaluation. This means that the domestic
economy needs to take the full adjustment. But, if wages and domestic
prices are not fully flexible, real output will (at least temporarily) decline
(see Handbook No 2 for a more detailed discussion of exchange rate
regimes).11

Inflation targets usually involve the preparation of an inflation forecast to

compare against the target. If inflation is expected to deviate

9
Inflation targets are now set in Australia, Canada, Finland, Israel, New Zealand, Spain, Sweden and the United
Kingdom.
10
But it will not necessarily result in the convergence of overall domestic prices and price inflation.
11
In contrast, with a money supply growth target, interest rates are reduced partially to offset such an adverse real shock.
Since lower real output reduces the demand for money (line 9 in Figure 1), interest rates are cut to move money and
credit growth back towards its target growth rate (line 1 in Figure 2).

23
from the target this would signify the need for a change of policy - a
tightening of policy if inflation is forecast above target and a relaxation of
policy if inflation is expected to be below target. Final inflation targets
have tended to be set in terms of ranges rather than fixed points. Partly,
this flexibility has been built in to accommodate output shocks to the
economy which also affect prices (eg changes in the terms of trade). Also
it is to acknowledge the uncertainty in the precise path of the transmission
mechanism and time lags in the inflation process in market-oriented
economies.12 The inflation forecast itself will usually depend, at least
partly, on a model which includes a number of channels of the impact of
changes in interest rates. This approach has the advantage of using more
information than is provided by a single money or exchange rate variable.
However, since the transmission mechanism of policy may be quite
complex, financial markets, enterprises and households will require a
detailed but clear explanation of the inflation process.

5 Conclusions

Monetary policy involves using monetary instruments to affect the final

goal(s) of policy. Central banks use a range of intermediate variables to
guide their decision-making. In a market-oriented financial system, unlike
in a planned economy, the central bank cannot control banking system
credit and interest rates (other than its own) by decree. Instead monetary
instruments are required which complement the workings of a competitive
financial system.

In a market-oriented environment, interest rates play an important role in

the transmission of monetary policy. Changes in central bank interest rates
affect, in the first instance, the quantity and price of credit and money on
the central bank's own balance sheet. This then transmits through the
whole banking system and the wider economy to affect the behaviour of
enterprises and households and thus inflation. The central bank’s job is to

12
See Haldane (1995) for a survey of this recent shift in some countries away from intermediate to final monetary policy
targeting.

24
evaluate these various channels of monetary policy and to set policy
accordingly.

At one time or another most central banks have used intermediate monetary
growth targets, to help guide monetary policy. This is still a successful
approach for some countries, notably Germany. For others, particularly
those facing financial liberalisation, money supply targets have become less
reliable. Exchange rates are used by some countries as an alternative
intermediate target, whereas others have adopted a direct final target for
inflation.

Although in practice central banks use a variety of approaches in

conducting monetary policy, most have the same final goal - low price
inflation.

25
 References

Allen W, Hoggarth G and Price L (1996) “Monetary Policy and

Liberalisation in Poland, Russia and the United Kingdom” in E Fair (ed)
“Risk Management in Volatile Financial Markets”.

Bank of England (1992), “The Case for Price Stability”, speech given by
the Governor, Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, November.

Barro R. (1995), “Inflation and Economic Growth”, Bank of England

Quarterly Bulletin, May.

Bean, Charles (1998), “The New UK Monetary Arrangements: A View

from the Literature”, Economic Journal, 108(451), pp 1795-1809.

Bernanke, Ben S., et-al, (1999), “Inflation targeting: Lessons from the
international experience”, Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Easton WW and Stephenson MJ (1990) “The Interest Rate

Transmission Mechanism in the United Kingdom and Overseas”, Bank of
England Quarterly Bulletin.

Fischer S (1993) “The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth”,

Journal of Monetary Economics.

Friedman BM and Hahn FH (ed) (1990) “Handbook of Monetary

Economics”, Volumes 1 and 2.

Gerlach S and Smets F (1994) “The Monetary Transmission: Evidence

from the G7 Countries”, Bank for International Settlements.

Haldane A. (ed.) (1995), Targeting Inflation, Bank of England.

Kansas City Fed Symposiums – all are good and the ones in 1996
(Achieving price stability) and 1999 (New Challenges for Monetary Policy)
(http://www.kc.frb.org/Publicat/sympos/1999/Sym99prg.htm)
are particularly useful in this context.

26
King, Mervyn (2002), “The Inflation Target Ten Years On”, speech to the
London School of Economics on Tuesday 19 November 2002.

Mahadeva, Lavan and Sterne, Gabriel (eds.) (2000), Monetary

Frameworks in a Global Context, Routledge.

Mishkin, Frederic S. (1995), “Symposium on the Monetary Transmission

Mechanism”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(4), pp 3-10, Fall.

Svensson, Lars E. O. (2003), “What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using

Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules”, Journal of
Economic Literature, 41, pp 426-77.

Taylor, John B. (ed.) (1999), Monetary Policy Rules, Chicago :University

of Chicago Press.

Woodford, Michael (1999), “Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia”, The

Manchester School, 67(Supp.), pp 1-35.

27
 Handbooks in this series

The CCBS has continued to add new titles to this series, initiated in 1996. The first 14
are available in Russian, and the first eleven in Spanish.

No Title Author

1 Introduction to monetary policy Glenn Hoggarth

2 The choice of exchange rate regime Tony Latter
3 Economic analysis in a central bank: models Lionel Price
versus judgement
4 Internal audit in a central bank Christopher Scott
5 The management of government debt Simon Gray
6 Primary dealers in government securities Robin McConnachie
markets
7 Basic principles of banking supervision Derrick Ware
8 Payment systems David Sheppard
9 Deposit insurance Ronald MacDonald
10 Introduction to monetary operations - revised, Simon Gray and
2nd edition Glenn Hoggarth
11 Government securities: primary issuance Simon Gray
12 Causes and management of banking crises Tony Latter
13 The retail market for government debt Robin McConnachie
14 Capital flows Glenn Hoggarth and
Gabriel Sterne
15 Consolidated supervision Ronald MacDonald
16 Repo of Government Securities Simon Gray
17 Financial Derivatives Simon Gray and
Joanna Place
18 The Issue of Banknotes Peter Chartres
19 Reserves Management John Nugee
20 Basic Bond Analysis Joanna Place
21 Banking and Monetary Statistics John Thorp and
Philip Turnbull

All CCBS Handbooks can be downloaded from our website

www.bankofengland.co.uk/ccbshand.htm

28
 Handbooks: Lecture series

As financial markets have become increasingly complex, central bankers' demands for
specialised technical assistance and training has risen. This has been reflected in the
content of lectures and presentations given by CCBS and Bank staff on technical
assistance and training courses. In 1999 we introduced a new series of Handbooks:
Lecture Series. The aim of this new series is to give wider exposure to lectures and
presentations that address topical and technically advanced issues of relevance to
central banks. The following are available:

No Title Author

1 Inflation Targeting: The British Experience William A Allen

2 Financial Data needs for Macroprudential Surveillance - E Philip Davis
What are the key indicators of risks to domestic
Financial Stability?
3 Surplus Liquidity: Implications for Central Banks Joe Ganley

Handbooks: Research Series

The CCBS begun, in March 2001, to publish Research Papers in Finance. One is
available now, and others will follow.

No Title Author

1 Over the Counter Interest Rate Options Richhild Moessner

All CCBS Handbooks can be downloaded from our website

www.bankofengland.co.uk/ccbshand.htm

29
BOOKS

The CCBS also aims to publish the output from its Research Workshop projects and
other research. The following is a list of books published or commissioned by CCBS:-

Richard Brearley, Alastair Clarke, Charles Goodhart, Juliette Healey, Glenn Hoggarth,
David Llewellyn, Chang Shu, Peter Sinclair and Farouk Soussa (2001): Financial
Stability and Central Banks – a global perspective, Routledge.

Lavan Mahadeva and Gabriel Sterne (eds) (October 2000): Monetary Frameworks in
a Global Context, Routledge. (This book includes the report of the 1999 Central Bank
Governors symposium and a collection of papers on monetary frameworks issues
presented at a CCBS Academic Workshop).

Liisa Halme, Christian Hawkesby, Juliette Healey, Indrek Saapar and Farouk Soussa
(May 2000): Financial Stability and Central Banks: Selected Issues for Financial
Safety Nets and Market Discipline, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of
England*.

E. Philip Davis, Robert Hamilton, Robert Heath, Fiona Mackie and Aditya Narain
(June 1999): Financial Market Data for International Financial Stability, Centre for
Central Banking Studies, Bank of England*.

Maxwell Fry, Isaack Kilato, Sandra Roger, Krzysztof Senderowicz, David Sheppard,
Francisio Solis and John Trundle (1999): Payment Systems in Global Perspective,
Routledge.

Charles Goodhart, Philipp Hartmann, David Llewellyn, Liliana Rojas-Suárez and

Steven Weisbrod (1998): Financial Regulation; Why, how and where now?
Routledge.

Maxwell Fry, (1997): Emancipating the Banking System and Developing Markets for
Government Debt, Routledge.

Maxwell Fry, Charles Goodhart and Alvaro Almeida (1996): Central Banking in
Developing Countries; Objectives, Activities and Independence, Routledge.

Forrest Capie, Charles Goodhart, Stanley Fischer and Norbert Schnadt (1994): The
Future of Central Banking; The Tercentenary Symposium of the Bank of England,
Cambridge University Press.

*These are free publications which are posted on our web site and can be downloaded.

30