Bullseye Oct 13, 2014

Philippine Equity Research
Oct 13, 2014
WEEKS HIGLIGHTS
Bullseye Report
Weekly Overview
Issue
Philippines
Peso-$
DJIA
SP500
Nasdaq
England
Nikkei
Hong Kong
China
US 30yr Bond
10-Yr Yield
Dollar Indx
Gold
Oil
GTX
Last Wk
Current
Wk Chg Wk Chg % YTD %
7,247
7,167 (79.68)
44.420
44.760 0.340
17,010
16,544 (465.59)
1,968
1,906 (61.77)
4,476
4,276 (199.38)
6,528
6,340 (187.94)
15,709
15,301 (408.10)
23,065
23,089 23.98
2,364
2,375 10.67
138.53
140.60 2.07
24.470
23.070 (1.400)
86.810
86.060 (0.75)
1,191.10 1,223.30 32.20
89.71
85.52 (4.19)
4,403.13 4,315.90 (87.23)
(1.10)
0.77
(2.74)
(3.14)
(4.45)
(2.88)
(2.60)
0.10
0.45
1.49
(5.72)
(0.86)
2.70
(4.67)
(1.98)
21.69
0.82
(0.20)
3.13
2.39
(6.06)
(6.08)
(0.93)
12.22
10.40
(23.76)
7.19
1.54
(13.35)
(10.63)
Authored by:
Juanis G. Barredo
VP; Chief Technical Analyst
COL Financial Group Inc.
(632) 636-5411
Juanis.barredo@colfinancial.com
Disclaimer: All opinions and estimates constitute the judgment of COLs Equity Research Dept as of
the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. The report is for informational
purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale of a security.
The Philippines PSEi lost 79-pts WoW (-1.1%) as resistance and

pressure from other markets weighed in
Average Daily Value for the week picked slowed to P8.9-B from
P11.1-B the week previous
Net foreign flows were negative showing outflows of P8.4-B
compared with P1.1-B inflows the week previous
The PSEi fell back to its Sept 15 low and has broken its 32-day
Moving Average in the process, consigned it to a short term
reactive phase. With other markets on a heavier corrective streak,
it may put added pressure into the PSEi and force it to back of
towards it 65-day (7,075) or even the 130-day (6,908) Moving
Average if the reactive drive intensifies. MACD readings concur
with these suggestions as it does point to ongoing momentum
weakness. This recommends some profit taking in stronger issues
breaking short term averages and lightening upon those whose
medium term support structures have been broken.
US and European markets showed heavy corrections last week
and could still earmark some reactive or consolidation movements
this week, hopefully showing some oversold rallies. We did notice
some key support breaks which could drive a more entrenched
corrective period into the short term forcing a sell into rallies
into these markets
Focus Items
Highlight
Philippines : Weekly Stats
Philippines : PSEi & Peso
Tech Map: Some key stocks and trend calls
US and Europe: In review
Asia: In review
Currencies & Commodities: In review
Page
2
3
4
5
6
7
Bullseye ---
Page 2
Philippines: Weekly Stats*
*Source: PSE (PE Ratios are

estimated using four-quarter
trailing financial data)
Net Foreign Flows (in Billions PHP)
Bullseye ---
Page 3
Philippines: PSEi & Peso

Recommendation: Take some profits; watch stops
Support: 7,087 6,936 Resistance: 7,403 - 7,550
The PSEi was down 79-pts WoW at 7,117 (-1.1%) pressured
by global corrections and the proximity of its previous high
A break in its short term up trendline may drive more
pressure and keep the corrective stance open
Medium term support is placed at 7,087 followed by 6,936
while resistance is adjusted to 7,403 7,550; short term
support at 7,215 was broken
MACDs in both daily and weekly charts show ongoing
weakness and should prepare us for more corrective
cascades
Recommendation: Short term buy/hold Dollar
Support: 44.40 - 44.00 Resistance: 44.75- 45.00 /45.50
The Peso-$ (at P44.76) was weaker given the underlying
strength of the US Dollar
The Peso broke above an Inverted head and Shoulders
pattern with its neckline resistance at 44.13-44.25 the
break heralded a swing closer to 45.00 (hitting this target)
and could even thereafter target 45.50
This raised a short term Buy on the Dollar (sell Peso) looking
to take some profits closer to estimated resistance zones
Wait for pullbacks into the Dollar for buys
Bullseye ---
Page 4
Some Key Stocks and Trend Calls

Tech Map
BLOOM
FPH
GTCAP
ABS
ANS
AP
BDO
BPI
CEB
DNL
EDC
FGEN
JFC
LPZ
LR
MCP
MEG
RLC
SECB
SINO
SMPH
URC
AC
AGI
ALI
APC
AT*
AUB
BEL
CAL
CHIB
CNPF
DD
DIZ
DMC
EEI
FLI
GERI
HLCM
ICT
JGS
LRI
LTG^
MA
MARC
MBT*
MER
MPI
MWC
MWIDE
NI
NIKL
ORE
PCOR
PIP
PSE
RCB
ROCK
RWM
SCC*
SGI
SM
SMC*
STI
TA
UBP
VLL
Legend:
AEV
DAVIN
EMP
FDC
HOUSE
LC
MMI
RRHI
Up trends:
These issues show continuing if not strong up trends much of which
seem to be technically stable and open to trading buys if risk-reward
measures are appealing.
ANI
BHI
COAL
COSCO
CPG
DMPL
ELI
EW
FOOD
GLO
OV
PGOLD
PNB
PNX
PX
PXP
RFM
TEL
Up trends needy of reactions or are reacting:

These issues show continuing up trends but a recent up stretch could
show (or is now showing) vulnerability to some profit taking and
reactive adjustments. Wait for a pullback to short term support or a
rally from support to cast fresh buy trades.
Consolidations (Sideward trends):
These issues are running through consolidation phases await key
range breaks for new trend action. Stay sidelined for now but keep
watch of these potential range breaks [~-up/down, ^-up, *-down).
Down trends needy of rallies or are rallying:
These issues show continuing declines but a recent fall off could
inspire (or is engendering) a temporary rebound wave. Lighten or sell
into rebounds to resistance for now.
Down trends:
These issues show continuing if not strong down trends much of
which seem to be technically stable. Stay out for now until a better
demand pattern appears.
Stock Code Color Guide:

GREEN
RED
Total Issues (change from last week)

3 (-3)
19 (-8)
45 (+9)
(Note: Trends are cast in the short term)
8 (-9)
18 (+11)
BLACK
-These issues improved their technical condition for the week

(moving to the left of their column category on the Tech Map)
-These issues regressed on their technical condition for the week
(moving to the right of their column category on the Tech Map)
-These issues carried the same technical condition for the week
(standing on the same column category on the Tech Map)
Bullseye ---
US and European Markets

* Simple Moving Averages: 20-Period 50-Period
US and Europe take a plunge more

support breaks seen last week
It was a very volatile and red week after
the US market succumbed to heavy selling
pressure dropping the three main indices
heavily for the week: Dow (-2.7%), SP500 (3.1%), Nasdaq (-4.4%)
The declines were so strong that it forced
the Dow and Nasdaq below the much
followed 200-day Moving Average and the
Sp500 right on its 200-day; we also saw key
breaks from their 1.5-yr long up trendlines
These indices are not yet oversold but are
close to them and still suggest a sell into
rallies
Next Support estimates for US indices are
the ff:
Dow:
(S) 16,382 - 16,333
SP500: (S) 1,904 - 1,872
Nasdaq: (S) 4,244 - 4,217
European indices also showed heavy

corrections breaking 2014 lows and
proceeding with declining trends as
pointed out by lower-highs and lower-lows;
these markets are now oversold
The US 10-yr Bond Yield proceeded to slip
along its major downward channel, coming
close to the lower end of its estimated
range it too is close to being oversold
Page 5
Bullseye ---
Asian Markets
Asia was knocked back after seeing the rout
in the US and Europe; support breaks seen
Many Asian markets fell over after
witnessing the large scale pullbacks into the
US and Europe, with only but a few indices
showing gains like China (+0.45%), Hong
Kong (+0.10%) and Indonesia (+0.47%)
Japan (-2.6%), Australia (-2.4%) and
Malaysia (-2%) were the hardest hit for the
week followed by S. Korea (-1.7%), Thailand
(-1.1%), the Philippines (-1.1%), India (-1%),
and Singapore (-0.9%)
We did see many support breaks unfold with
some strong indices falling below short term
moving averages (16 & 32-day) and a few
even break below 65 and 130-day moving
averages this paints a general shift from an
up trend to at least a large sideways trends
if not already short term declines
As such we would expect more corrective
choppiness moving forward as many of
these indices would have to rebuild new
support fronts before recovering stronger
trend patterns rallies may unfold especially
from some showing oversold readings, but
until clear reversal signals can surface
rallies may be temporary as large
consolidation patterns or corrective
channels may render control for the
meantime
Page 6
Bullseye ---
Currencies & Commodities

Dollar eases from its high stretch, allows
Gold, Euro & Yen to rally; Oil plunges
The US Dollar index (86.06 -0.86% WoW)
reacted after breaking a short term trendline
as it was very needy of this adjustment due
to over bought conditions; the Dollar may
consolidate near its short term averages
(85.61-64.68), using these as support
The Euro index (126.24) rallied briefly but sill
shows weakness even in an oversold rally
a sell into rallies is still offered looking at
resistance closer to 127-128.50
The Yen index (92.88) [$-107.34] showed
some rally action after the Dollar eased we
would expect next resistance closer to 93.13
93.71 followed by 94.60
Metals staged an oversold rally as well (as
allowed by the Dollar reaction) and
maintains a sell into next resistance with
Gold next at $1240, Copper at $3.07 and
Silver at $18.20
Oil proceeds to be very bearish and has
broken through a number of support points
and maintain its down trend the
commodity did come from oversold levels
and could use some rally space as the
spread to its short term averages is far; the
16-day MA is at $90.42 and the 32-day is at
$92 thus prices cannot stay too far away
from these too long (sell into rallies)
Page 7

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Philippine Equity Research

Oct 13, 2014

Wk Chg Wk Chg % YTD %

The Philippines PSEi lost 79-pts WoW (-1.1%) as resistance and

Philippines: Weekly Stats*

*Source: PSE (PE Ratios are

Net Foreign Flows (in Billions PHP)

Philippines: PSEi & Peso

Some Key Stocks and Trend Calls

Up trends needy of reactions or are reacting:

Stock Code Color Guide:

Total Issues (change from last week)

(Note: Trends are cast in the short term)

-These issues improved their technical condition for the week

US and European Markets

US and Europe take a plunge more

European indices also showed heavy

* Simple Moving Averages: 20-Period 50-Period

Currencies & Commodities

* Simple Moving Averages: 20-Period 50-Period

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