Climate Data-Proxies and Reconstructions

Review of Climate Fundamentals
Proxies and Reconstructions of Temperature and CO 2 (ppm), Instrumental

Records of Temperture, Fossil Fuel Production, Solar Variation: Orbit & Cycles,
Temperature Statistical Model, Ocean Currents, Sea and Glacier Levels, Albedo,
Climate Extremes, and Search for Anthropomorphic Climate Fingerprints
http://www.leapcad.com/Climate_Analysis/Climate_Data-Proxies_and_Reconstructions.xmcd Rev Dec. 18, 2014
An assesment of the Evidence for Anthropomorphic Climate Change:

Review of Fundamental Climate Data and Mathcad Generated Models.
An Application of the LeapCad Methodology and Philosophy in providing a Virtual Laboratory for
Learning, Exploring, and Developing Models using Tutorial Analytical Math Scripts.
These analytic climate model Mathcad (Version14) scripts and data are directly accessible from LeapCad.com.
Greenhouse Effect (GH), Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) Theory, and Evidence
The earth receives mostly visible shortwave (< 1m) energy from the sun, the majority of which passes through the
atmosphere. The atmosphere near the surface is largely opaque to mid IR, thermal radiation (5-15m) (with important
exceptions for "window" bands - See Section V. Solar Radiation Spectrum), and most heat loss from the surface is by
sensible heat and latent heat transport. However, CO2 radiative effects become increasingly important higher in the
atmosphere as the higher levels become progressively more transparent to thermal radiation, largely because the
atmosphere is drier and water vapor - an important greenhouse gas (GHG) - becomes less. GHG will absorb light only
in a set of specific wavelengths, which show up as thin dark lines in a spectrum. In a gas at sea-level temperature and
pressure, the countless molecules colliding with one another at different velocities each absorb at slightly different
wavelengths, so the lines are broadened and overlap to a considerable extent. At low pressure the spikes become
much more sharply defined, like a picket fence. There are gaps between the H2O lines where radiation can get through
unless blocked by CO2 lines. CO2 does not saturate. Doubling concentration of CO2 adds 4 W/sq. meter, adds 2.8C.
It is more realistic to think of the greenhouse effect as applying to a "surface" in the mid-troposphere, which is
effectively coupled to the surface by a temperature lapse rate. Within the mid-troposphere region where radiative
effects are important, the presentation of the Idealized Greenhouse Model becomes more reasonable: a layer of
atmosphere with greenhouses gases will re-radiate heat in all directions, both upwards and downwards, thereby
warming the surface (324 W/m2) and simultaneously cooling (195 W/m2) the atmosphere by transmitting heat to deep
space at 2.7K. Increasing the concentration of these gases increases the amount of radiation, and thereby warms the
surface and cools the atmosphere more. GHG shift the balance between incoming shortwave solar radiation and IR
thermal radiation. This GH effect increaes the land & ocean by about 20 C. See the illustration below.
AGW Mechanism: The Industrial Era has doubled CO2. CO2 is only 0.04% of the atmosphere, (its highest
atmospheric concentration in at least 650,000 years), but it modifies the balance of shortwave incoming and IR. It is a
strong absorber of infrared wavelengths, so it traps energy that would otherwise escape to space and nudges upward
the temperature at which the radiation balance occurs. Another critical factor is that CO2 lingers for decades to
centuries, while water vapor rains out.
For the following disucssion refer to the "Energy Balance Intensites" figure on page 2.
If we average the incoming shortwave solar radiation that is absorbed by the earths climate over the surface of the
earth we get around 235 W/m2.
If we average the outgoing longwave radiation from the top of atmosphere we get the same value: 235 W/m2.
If the atmosphere didnt absorb any terrestrial radiation then the surface of the earth must also be emitting 235 W/m2.
The only way that the surface of the earth could emit this amount is if the temperature of the earth was around 255K
or -18C. See Section IX-2. And yet we measure an average surface temperature of the earth around 15C which
corresponds to an emission of radiation of 396 W/m2 from the surface of the earth.
If the atmosphere wasnt absorbing and re-radiating longwave then the surface of the earth would be -18C. The
acutal warmer temperature of the earth results from the inappropriately-named greenhouse effect.
In reality, of course, the situation is more complicated. Warmer air holds more water vapor, which is itself an important
greenhouse gas. If we add carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, water vapor becomes more abundant and amplifies the
temperature increase that would result from the carbon dioxide alone. Indeed, somewhat more than half of any AGW
warming comes from this and other feedback processes.
1
Main Feedback Factors: Note - We currently have a poor understanding of these feeback factors.
1. Evaporation increases water vapor content of the atmosphere (provides both cloud shading, but water vapor is a
GHG). It causes both cooling from clouds reflecting sunlight and heating from the greenhouse effect.
2. Albedo is the ratio of reflected to absorbed sunlight. This is affected by the ratio of ice to dark land (ice is
reflective, while dark land absorbs sunlight). AGW causes increased heating and thus melting of polar ice.
3. Volcanic dust refects sunlight and cools the planet.
Graphic Ilustrations for Greenhouse Effect

The earth is an isolated planet, that is, it is surrouded by the vacuum of space. The energy-in is by short wave solar
radiation and the only energy out must also be by radiation (longwave). For Energy Balance, the shortwave solar
heat coming in must equal the long wave IR re-radiated heat going out.
The energy out comes from the IR transparent region in the upper Troposphere, which is at a lower temperature (on
average, the temperature drops by 6.5 degrees C for every thousand meters of altitude you climb). If GHG is added,
then more energy is absorped in the lower atmosphere which cools the upper tropsphere. According to the
Stefan-Boltman Law, the radiated power is proportional to T4. Thus the GHG IR molecules radiated less power to
space than they absorb from the surface. Thus the temperature must rise to maintain energy balance. This is the
greenhouse effect.
In the graph below, nore that the energy leaving the earth, 452 W/m2, is much greater than the solar
radiation absorbed from the sun, 235 W/m2. The absorption and re-radiation by greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere is responsible. This is another indication of the greenhouse effect. Th e earth system
recirculates long wave mid IR
Energy Balance Intensities (Power Density)
TABLE OF CONTENTS
A. CONCLUSIONS
B. CLIMATE ENGINEERING
- Pg. 6 of 54
- Pg. 6
Review of Climate Fundamentals

SECTION 0. Ice Age Climate Records: Billion and Million Year Cycles
- Pg. 7
1. Ice Ages During the Past 2.4 Billion Years: Plot of Temperature vs. Millions Years
2. Cenozoic Era /Quaternary Period /Hologcene Epoch: Plot Temperature and CO2 Levels vs. MYrs
SECTION I. Paleologicical Records -Paleoclimate Temp Proxies/Reconstructions - Ice Ages - Pg. 8
1. Phanerozoic (Last 545,000,000 Years) Temperature and CO2:
2. Ice Ages and Vostok Ice Temperature (Blue) & CO2 (Black) over 420,000 Years
3. The Present Holocene Interglacial Period: Glaciers and Climate Change
4. The Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period in the Sargasso Sea Temp - from O18/O16 ratios.
5. Means of Temperature from 18 Non Tree Ring Series (30 Yr Running Means), Loehle 2007
6. Millennial Temperature Reconstructions (Last 1000 yrs from several sources)
7. Multi-Proxy Reconstructioned North Hemisphere Temperature Anomaly - Last 1000 Years
8. Multi-Proxy Reconstructioned North Hemisphere Temperature Anomaly - Last 2000 Years
9. 2010 Reconstructions shows 2 previous Warming Periods (Roman and Medieval) - Last 2000 Yrs.
SECTION II. Instrument Direct Temperature Records 1800 to Present - Cont inued
- Pg. 14
1. National Climatic Data Center's NOA US website (1880 - present) and Berkeley Earth Records
2. NASA GISS US Aand Zonal Surface Temperature Analysis
3. Berkeley Earth Land Average 1750 to 2014 Data and Simple CO2 and Volcano Temp Fit
4. Hemisphereic Temperature Change
5. Satellite Global Temp Anomaly and Solar Insolation. UAH Satellite Temp of the Lower Atmosphere
6. Heat Content of Oceans - Indisputable evidence of global warming, but =>T ~ 0.025K from 1975
7. PPC 2007: Comparison of models with natural versus anthropogenic forcing.
8. Analysis: Statistics of Climate Change - Temperature Rise is Non Monotonic - 70 Year Cycles
SECTION III-A. CO2 Concentration Records
- Pg. 18
1. Global Temperature & CO2 ppm over Geologic Time (Paleozoic, Mesozoic, Cenozoic) 600
MillionYr
2. The Keeling Curve- Mauna Loa Observation Hawaii CO2 Data (1958-2010): Seasonal & Monthly
CO2 Yearly ppm: Composite Ice Core & Shifted Keeling Curve (Hockey Stick) and Beck
3 . CO2 - Neftel Siple Ice Station - 1847 to 1953
- Pg. 19
4. Vostok and Trend CO2 Concentration Data, Barnola et al - 160,000 Yrs.
- Pg. 21
5. Temp and CO2 Hadcrut data:1860 to 2010
6. Does Temp track CO2?
- Pg. 22
SECTION III-B. CO2 Production Projections, Scenarios, and Fossil Fuel Projections
1. Yearly CO2 Emission & Atmospheric ppm Increases - 1850 to Present
2. Global Atmospheric CO2 Emission Scenarios (B1 to A1F1) - 1980 to 2100
3. World Energy Production Projection
- Pg. 23
SECTION III-C. Fossil Fuel Energy

1. Main Areas of Human Energy Comsumption in the US
2. Human Contribution Relative to Other Sources of CO2
3. Coal Usage and Factors
4. Oil Production - US Drilling Rigs - December 2014
- Pg. 26
- Pg. 24
SECTION IV. Solar Variation: Wolf Number, Sunspots, C14 SS Extrema, Irradiance, Wind- Pg. 27
1. TCrut Temp, Solar Proxy: Changes C14 Concentration, Sunspot Extrema Periods, & #Sun Spots
NGDC-Table of smoothed monthly sunspot numbers 1700-present
2. Sun Spot Epochs (910 to 2010) - Maunder Minimum
3. Extended C14 Data (Red) Smoothed Data, Detrended Data, & Hallstadzeit Cycles
3. PMOD Total Solar Irradiance-31 Day Median Fit
4. The Sun's Total Irradiance: Cycles, Tr ends & Related Climate Change Uncertainties -1978 -PMOD
5. Reconstruction of solar irradiance since 1610, Lean 1995 (1600-1995) - Correlates to Temp
6. NASA OMNI2: Solar Wind Pressure and Decadal Trends
7. Solar Cycle Prediction - Solar Cycles # 24 and 25 -NASA - Influence of sun on climate
- Pg. 31
SECTION V. Incoming Solar Radiation Spectrum and GHG Adsorption Bands
1. Top of Atmosphere and Sea Level (Greenhouse Gas Absorption Bands)
2. Comparison of MODTRAN Model to Nimbus 3 IRIS instrument (ClimateModels.UChicago.edu)
3. Measurements of the Radiative Surface Forcing of Climate
- Pg. 32
SECTION VI. Milankovitch Astronomically Forced Glacial Insolation Cycles

- Pg. 34
1. Astronomical Insolation Forcing: Early Pleistocene Glacial Cycles - Huybers
2. Milankovitch radiation for different latitudes and time periods
3. Total Solar Irradiance - 31 Day Median
See "Long-term numerical solution for the insolation quantities of the Earth.xmcd"
SECTION VII. Climate Cycle Analysis - Wavelets
- Pg. 37
"Solar Forcing and Climate - A Multi-resolution Analysis.xmcd"
Empirical Analysis Mode Decomposition via Hilbert-Huang Transforms -> "EMD HHT.xmcd"
SECTION VIII. Atmosphere-Ocean Effects: ENSO and PDO
- Pg. 37
ENSO - The Southern Oscillation: Consistently dominant influence on mean global temperature
1. ENSO Index - 1950 to 2014
PDO - Pacific Decadal Oscillation
1. PDO Index - 1900 to 2010
- Pg. 37
SECTION IX. Simple Climate Models and Wavelet Analysis of Global Temperature Anomal - Pg. 38
1. Use ENSO, Irradiance, Volcanic Aerosols, and Anthropogenic Effects to Create an Empirical Temp Model Compare Anthropogenic Forcing Component - (17 Year Lag) = b4*z4 (Green) of T to Data
2. Stefan-Boltzmann Law of Radiation: Calculation of Temp of Earth (w/o Greenhouse Effect)
3. Simple 1D Latitudinal Energy Balance Model
- Pg. 39
4. Wavelet Adaptive Hilbert-Huang Transformation Analysis - Decomposition of Temp Data - Pg. 40
SECTION X. More Complex Climate Models
For details go to Link: http://www.leapcad.com/Climate_Analysis.html
- Pg. 40
Climate Model Papers: General Circulation Models (GCM)

GISS ModelE (http://www.giss.nasa.gov/tools/modelE/)
Efficient Three-D Global Model - GISS Model II
Educational GISS Model II
SECTION XI. Sea Level Records
- Pg. 41
1. Non Linear Trend: Global Sea Level vs Time - 1800 to 2014 - Anomalous increased rate since 1990.
2. Holocene Sea Level Rise - 8000 BP
SECTION XII. Glacier Records
- Pg. 42
1. Glacier Global Temp Reconstruction & Ts - 1600 to 2000 (169 Records)
2. Glacier Mass Balance and Regime: Data of Measurements and Analysis 1950-2000
3. Vostok Ice Core Data, Ratio 18O/16O (High-->Warm) ==> Continental Glacers over past 106 years -Pg 43
SECTION XIII. Project Earthshine - Measuring the Earth's Albedo

- Pg. 44
Earths average albedo is not constant from one year to the next; it also changes over decadal timescales.
The computer models currently used to study the climate system do not show such large decadal-scale
variability of the albedo.
XIII XIV: Snow Coverage in the Northern Hemisphere
- Pg. 45
Snow cover, the whitest natural surface on the planet, reflects roughly 90 percent of the sunlight that
reaches it. Data from 1965 shows that snow coverage is decreasing, with PerCentSnowDecrease = 13.7%
SECTION XV. 70 Year Warming Cycles
- Pg. 46
Analysis: Statistics of Climate Change -Temperature Rise is Not Monotonic - 70 Year Cycles
SECTION XVI. Cryosphere - Sea Ice Extent - Northern and Southern Hemispheres
- Pg. 46
2.5% Loss of Global Sea Ice Extent since 1980
SECTION XVII. Finding the Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas (CO2) Fingerprint

- Pg. 47
Test# 1: Relative (RH) and Specific Humidity (SH) vs. Height Not True. - Pg. 47
SH decreasing with time ==> Negataive Feedback. Warming cannot be caused by increased CO2
Test #2: This Model is Interesting but Flawed: Miskolczi Saturated (Greenhouse Effect) Humidity Model
Test #3: GH Effect requires the lower and mid-troposphere to be warmer than the surface. True
Test #4 AGW requires the temperature of the stratosphere to decrease
True
- Pg. 50
SECTION XVIII. Model Predictions for Tropical Atmosphere Warming
- Pg. 50
http://www.climatechange.gov.au/en/climate-change/science.aspx
http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/Spencer_EPW_Written_Testimony_7_18_2013_updated.pdf
Test #5: Plots: All 73 climate models produce Too Much Tropical Atmospheric Warming During 197 9 to 2012
SECTION XIX. Is Extreme Climate (> 30 Years) Getting Worse?
- Pg. 51
Test #6:
Models/Snow Extent, Very Hot/Cold, Droughts, Wetness, Sea Level Rise Prediction,
1. Simulated annual timeseries of January NA-Continental Scale Snow Coverage - 1850 to present
2. North Hemisphere Snow Cover Anomalies (December & January). Trend Line (Blue)
3. US Percentage Area Very Warm, Very Cold
4. Extreme and Severe Drought Agricultural Land
5. NOAA: Rainfall/Wetness
6. IPCC Revisions: Sea Level Rise by 2100
7. Hurricane Frequency
APPENDIX
AI. TYPES OF GISS TEMPERATURE DATA SOURCES
- Pg. 54
A. EVALUATION OF EVIDENCE - CONCLUSIONS:

"Science and skepticism are synonymous, and in both cases it's okay to change your mind if the evidence changes."
- Michael Shermer
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool." - Richard P. Feynman
1. The evidence clearly shows global warming over the last 300 years.
2. According to AGW proponents, first warming over the last 100 years has been unusally rapid and
second, based on the rise in atmospheric CO2 levels over the last 250 years of the industrial age, it is
reasonable to infer that some part of this is atributable to anthropogenic global warming, AGW.
3. Skeptics say, first, that climate varies naturally, but no greater than the present measured temp
anomalies and, second, the Modern Warm Period started 300 years ago, at the end of the Little Ice
Age, and it is no different than the Roman or Medieval Warming Periods.
Section I.
4. T#5: All 73 IPCC type climate models predict more tropical atmospheric warming than observed
during 1979 to 2012.
Section XV
5. Satellite Data shows that there has been no statistically significant warming in the last 15 years.
Section II. 4 Note: There is some uncertainty about Satellite data.
6. Concern: Increased CO2 in the oceans causes increased carbonic acid, which attacks coral.
Summary:
There is definitely a spike in the recorded global temperature over the last 100 years.
The Data has verified a number of the uniques fingerprints of AGW.
The evidence shows that AGW probably contributes significantly to the total Gloabal
Warming and certainly to the increased acidity of the oceans.
There is still much we do not know about climate. We have a poor understanding
of feedback factors. They are at best guesses. It is POSSIBLE that natural
global warming may be occuring due to solar variation or other mechanisms
(cosmic rays, ocean currents, or unknown feedback factors).
Climate prediction is difficult because climate is chaotic. We also have limited
data, e.g. volcanic, sun, and cosmic ray activity, 3D data on clouds, threshold for
convection, and aerosols.
POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS TO GLOBAL WARMING

B. Climate Engineering - Mitigating Climate Change:
The observed spike in temperature carries risks such as increases in ocean heights. The outlook for
mitigating the AGW component by poltical change is very dim. Climiate Engineering may target different
areas of the climate system; possess varying mechanics, costs, and feasibilities; have diverse
environmental and societal impacts on varying scales; and create their own sets of risks, challenges, and
unknowns. They are commonly divided into two non-exhaustive suites:
Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) methods attempt to absorb and store carbon from the atmosphere;
either by technological means, or by enhancing the ability of natural systems (e.g. oceans) to do so.
Solar Radiation Management or Sunlight Reflection Methods (SRM) aims to reduce the amount of heat
trapped by greenhouse gases by reflecting sunlight back into space, either by increasing the reflectivity of
the earth's surfaces, or by deploying a layer of reflective particles in the atmosphere.
SECTION 0. Earliest Climate Records: Billion and Million Year Cycles

The Nature of Ice Ages
Ice ages are times when the entire Earth experiences notably colder climatic conditions. During an ice age, the
polar regions are cold, there are large differences in temperature from the equator to the pole, and large,
continental-size glaciers can cover enormous regions of the Earth.
Ever since the Pre-Cambrian (600 million years ago), ice ages have occurred at widely spaced intervals of
geologic timeapproximately 200 million yearslasting for millions, or even tens of millions of years.
At least five major ice ages have occurred throughout Earths history: the earliest was over 2 billion years ago,
and the most recent one began approximately 3 million years ago and continues today (yes, we live in an ice
age!). The most recent ice age was almost 10,000 years ago.
We are currenetly coming out of an ice ages and the Vostok Ice Core data in Section I. Plot
2-1 shows this more clearly.
Simplified chart showing when the five major ice ages occurred in the past 2.4 billion yrs of Earths history.
Era - a long period of time (intervals of hundreds of millions of years)

which is marked by the definite beginning and end.
Period - a cycle of time (intervals of tens of millions of years long).
Epoch - a more recent period (intervals of tens of thousands to millions of years).
Today
Cenozoic
Quaternary
Holocene
Today we are in the Cenozoic Era /Quaternary Period /Holocene Epoch
SECTION I. Paleological Isotopic Temp Record - the Vostok Ice Core - 1999
http://www.heartland.org/publications/NIPCC%20report/PDFs/Chapter%203.1.pdf
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_core
Petit, "Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica",
Nature 399: 429-436 CO2: Gas age
CO2 (ppmv) File: co2vostokPetit.txt
Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center
http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/temp/vostok/vostok.1999.temp.dat
Depth (m), Age of ice (yr BP), Deuterium content of the ice ( D), Temperature Variation (deg C)
CO2VosS
TS
TempVostok := READPRN ( "vostok.1999.temp.txt"CO2Vostok

)
:= READPRN ( "CO2vostokPetit.txt" )
Glacials/Ice Ages and Their Temp Cycles over the Past 450,000 Years - Vostok Ice Core
Note: The 100,000 Year Cycle, which corresponds the the Earth's Orbital Variation
CO2 actually lags temperature by around 1000 years.
IS CO2 SAVING US FROM ANOTHER GLACIAL?
Years
2-1. Vostok Ice Temperature/Glacials (Blue) & CO2 (Black) over 420,000 Years
280
260
2
240
4
220
200
Glacial
10
400000
Glacial
300000
Glacial
200000
Glacial
100000
CO2 Concentration (ppm) - Black
300
Max: 3.23C at 128,356 YBP
180
0
Years Before Present
2-2. Vostok Antartica CO2 Concentration
CO2 vppm
Temp Anomaly (C) - Blue
300
290
280
270
260
250
240
230
220
210
200
190
180
Glacial
400000
Glacial
300000
Glacial
200000
Glacial
100000
Temp (C)
2.2-3. Vostok Antartica Temperature

4
2
0
2
4
6
8
10
80000
60000
40000
20000
3. The Present Holocene Interglacial with 1500 Year Warming/Cooling Cycles

Spatio-temporal Analysis of Glacier Fluctuations in the European Alps after 1850
http://www.geo.uzh.ch/~mzemp/Docs/Zemp_PhD_2006.pdf
Holocene Climate Maximum
Figure 3: Alpine summer temperatures of the Lateglacial and the Holocene, as estimated from
tree line and snow line variations. Slightly modified after Patzelt (1980).
4. The Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period in the Sargasso Sea (Local Area-May not be Typical)
Lloyd D. Keigwin
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/keigwin1996/fig4bdata
http://lv-twk.oekosys.tu-berlin.de/project/lv-twk/002-Sargasso-Sea-surface-temperature.htm
This graph shows the Sargasso Sea surface temperature, which was derived from oxygen isotope ratios. This is
an indicator of evaporation and, therefore, a proxy for sea-surface temperature. The Sargasso Sea is a
two-million-mi2 body of water in the North Atlantic Ocean that lies roughly between the West Indies and the
Azores from approximately 20-35oN. It is relatively static through its vertical column so that potential
interference from mixing with other water masses and sediment sources is minimal. The isotopic ratios are
derived from biotic debris that has precipitated onto the sea floor. Wide and abrupt variations in temperature are
indicated. The relative temperature variations of the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP)
are prominently recorded in the data. Note that the temperature has been increasing since about 300 years
before present (1700 A.D.) The horizontal line is the average temperature for this 3000-year period.
No indication of Error Bars. These are huge zig-zag changes, may be local shifts in currents, not global.
TempPaleo := READPRN ( "Paleo Temp Keigwin 1996.TXT" )

TempRecent := READPRN ( "Paleo Temp Keigwin 1955-1995.TXT" )
0
Years := TempPaleo
1
Temp := TempPaleo
TSmooth := ksmooth ( Years , Temp , 200)
WRITEPRN ( "TSmooth.txt" ) := TSmooth
TSmooth := READPRN ( "TSmooth.txt" )

4. The Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period. Sargasso Sea Surface Temperature
26
Temp (C)
25
Medieval
Warm Period
24
23
23
22
Little Ice Age
21
2000
1000
Little Ice
Age
5. 2000-Year Global Temperature Reconstruction Based on Non-Tree Ring Proxies - Loehle - 2007
There are reasons to believe that tree ring data may not capture long-term climate changes (100+ years) because tree size,
root/shoot ratio, genetic adaptation to climate, and forest density can all shift in response to prolonged climate changes, among
other reasons Most seriously, typical reconstructions assume that tree ring width responds linearly to temperature, but trees can
respond in an inverse parabolic manner to temperature, with ring width rising with temperature to some optimal level, and then
decreasing with further temperature increases. Only 3 of the data sets is from Europe.
This reconstruction does not show the "hockey stick". Thus the MWP and Little Ice Age we re globa l.
Loelhe := READPRN ( "LoehleE&E2007.csv" )
"Loehle, E&E Nov. 2007", calendar date,dev. deg C
Temperature Anomaly (C)
5. Means of Temperature from 18 Non Tree Ring Series (30 Yr Running Means)
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
Zero 0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
Years
10
6. Millennial (Yrs 1000 to 2000) temperature reconstruction intercomparison and evaluation

M. N. Juckes, M. R. Allen, K. R. Briffa
supplement: http://www.clim-past.net/3/591/2007/cp-3-591-2007-supplement.zip
mitrie_cited_reconstructions_v01.csv
Reconstructions; Name Date-Column (Color)

crowley_lowery 2000-4 Northern (Red)
mann_jones 1999 -10 Global (Violet)
hegerl_etal 2006-6
"
(Blue)
oerlemans2005-12
"
(Blue-Green)
huang_etal 1998-7 x 0
"
(Green)
Observed "Instrument"
Supplement 2007 (Blue)
See SECTION II -3: Berkeley Land Surface (Not Land/Sea) Temp Data - BerkTemp from 1800 to 2014 (Black)
0
1
BkYr := BerkTemp + BerkTemp 1 0.08333
BerkTemp := READPRN ( "BerkTemp2.txt" )
BerkTempS := ksmooth ( BkYr1800 , BerkTemp1800

Mitrie_T2006 := READPRN ( "mitrie_instrumental_2006.txt" )
0
1
Mitrie_T2006S := ksmooth Mitrie_T2006 , Mitrie_T2006 , 12
Yrmr := READPRN ( "YrMitrie.txt" )
MitrieTempf := READPRN ( "mitrie reconstructions1.txt" )
MitrieTemp := MitrieTempf
cols ( MitrieTempf ) = 13
Mann Hockey Puck Curve (Rose Color)
Note that the rise within the last 100 years has been much more rapid than in the past.
6. Millennial Temperature Reconstructions (Last 1000 yrs from 5 sources) and Insturment Temp (2)
1
1
0.9
0.9
0.8 Medieval
0.8
0.7 Warm Priod
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0
0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
Little Ice Age
0.7
0.7
10001050 11001150 12001250 13001350 14001450 15001550 16001650 17001750 18001850 19001950 2000 2050
Years
7. T emperature reconstructions and anomalies taken from the references listed below
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/n_hem_temp/briffa2001jgr3.txt
Re calibrations given in Briffa et al. (2001) J Geophys Res 106, 2929-2941
Years: 1000 to 1997
1: Jones et al. (1998) Holocene
2: Mann et al. (1999) Geophys Res Lett
3: Briffa et al. (2001) J Geophys Res
4: Briffa (2000) Quat Sci Rev
5: Overpeck et al. (1997) Science
6: Crowley & Lowery (2000) Ambio
7: Observed temperatures from Jones et al. (1999) Rev Geophys
TempMill7 := READPRN ( "Temp 7 Reconstructions-briffa.txt" )

0
YearMill := TempMill7
TempS := MKSmooth ( TempMill7)
MKSmooth is a Matrix ksmooth over 12 points
11
7. Millenial Temperature Anomaly Reconstructions (5)

0.5
0.4
0.2
0.1
0
0.1
Medieval
Warm
Period
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Little Ice Age
0.7
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
Years
8. Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and

high-resolution proxy data, Anders Moberg1, Dmitry M. Sonechkin2, Karin Holmgren3, Nina M.
Datsenko2, Nature 2005
NHTC := READPRN ( "Highly variable NH temps reconstructed-Moberg.TXT" )

0
NHTC yr := NHTC
NHTC Temp := NHTC
cols ( NHTC ) = 9
8. Multi-Proxy Reconstructioned North Hemisphere Temperature Anomaly
0.4
Medieval
Warm Period
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Little Ice Age

0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Years
12
9. Roman, Medieval, and Modern Warm Periods - Modern same as Roman and Medieval
This reconstruction is the first to show a distinct Roman Warm Period c. AD 1-300, reaching up to the 1961-1990
mean temperature level, followed by the Dark Age Cold Period c. AD 300-800. The last 2,000 years of proxy
reconstructed temperature variations for the Northern Hemisphere shows that the
Modern Warm Period (today) is not significantly different from the Medieval Warm Period of ~1,000 years ago,
or the Roman Warm Period of ~2,000 years ago (Ljungqvist, 2010):
Read Data from: Ljungqvist, F.C. 2009, N. Hemisphere Extra-Tropics 2,000yr Decadal Temperature Reconstruction
Source: ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/ljungqvist2010/ljungqvist2010.txt
Column 0: Begin Decade AD
Line Color
Column 1: End Decade AD
Column 2: Reconstructed temperature anomaly in degrees C with respect to 19611990
Column 3: Upper 2 standard deviation error bar
Red
Column 4: Lower 2 standard deviation error bar
Red
Column 5: Instrumental temperature data from the variance adjusted CRUTEM3+HadSST2 9030N
Smoothed Data for Temp Anomaly
Heavy Green
Data Columns: Decade ReconT Up.err. Lo.err. Inst.Temp.
Blue
T LMillenial := READPRN ( "Temp NH 1 to 2000AD Ljungquist2010.txt" )

Smooth the Temp Anomaly Data, Green
Line
0
TLSmooth := ksmooth T LMillenial
2
, T LMillenial , 50
Temp Reconstruction for North Hemisphere with 2 Sigma Error Limits. Modern Not Exceptional
0.4
Medieval Warm
Modern Warm
0.3 Roman Warm
Period
0.2
Period
Period
0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Little Ice Age
0.7
0.8
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
Years
Warming trend started

300 hundred years ago
at end of Little Ice Age.
13
SECTION II. Instrument Direct Temp: NOAA, NASA, and Berkeley Earth Records
1. Global from 1880: 2006 & 2014 Datasets Direct Inst Temp Time Series Records
Latitude Range -90 to 90, Longitude Range -180 to 180
(from the Global Historical Climatology Network dataset)
http://www.co2science.org/cgi-bin/temperatures/ghcn.pl
GHCN := READPRN ( "GHCN Temp Anomally 1880 - 2006.txt" )
BerkT := READPRN ( "BerkTemp2.txt"

0
1
BYr := BerkT + BerkT 0.08333
GHCN2 := READPRN ( "GHCN Temp Anomally 1880 - 2014.txt"

National Climatic Data Center's website:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/ghcn-monthly/index.php
Berkeley Earth Decadal Land-Surface Temperatures: http://berkeleyearth.org/summary-of-findings
0
1
USATSmth := ksmooth GHCN , GHCN , 5 WRITEPRN ( "USATSmth.txt" ) := USATSmth
Temp Anomaly (C)
1. Global Temp Anomaly: GHCN Dataset (Red) & Berkeley Land/Surface 1&5Yr Avg
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Years
2. NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis - US and Zonal 1880 - 2014

Goddard Institute Space Studies: Annual Mean US & GlobalTemperature Change
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.D.txt - Blue & Red
/Fig.A2.txt - Green
Annual and five-year running mean surface air temperature in the contiguous 48 United States (1.6% of the
Earth's surface) relative to the 1951-1980 mean.
2014 http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ Data in C.
This is an update of Figure 6 in Hansen et al. (1999).
Fields: year Annual_Mean 5-year_Mean
USTemp0 := READPRN ( "Contiguous 48 US Tempt Anomaly.TXT" ) Red 2009 Averaging Method
Units 0.01 Celsius, J-D Mean in Col 13
USTemp := READPRN ( "GISS NH TempC-2014.txt" )
2013 Revised Method
GTemp0 := READPRN ( "GISS NASA Global Temp Mean Fig2A.TXT"Green
)
Units 0.01 Celsius, J-D Mean in Col 13
GTemp := READPRN ( "GISS GLB TempC-2014.TXT" )
0
13
USTSmth := ksmooth USTemp , USTemp
0.01 , 5
GLB2014 := READPRN ( "/Source Temp Files/GLB.Ts+dSST-2014X.txt" )
Note: On the 2008 scale the warmest year in US was 1934
2. US( Blue) and Global (Red) Annual Mean Temp Anomaly in Celcius- GISS- 1880
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Year
14
3. Berkeley Earth Land Average Temp and Simple CO2 and Volcano Temperature Fit
Focused (Richard A. M uller) on land temperatu re dat a analysis. B erkeley Earth was fou nded in early 2 010 with t he go al of addressing the major co ncerns of
"skeptics" regarding global warming and the instrumental temperature record. The project's stated aim was a "transparent approach, based on data analysis.
Yr , Month, TempAnom&Unc: 1Yr, 5 Yr, 10Yr, 20 Yr

http://berkeleyearth.org/summary-of-findings
0
1
BerkTemp := READPRN ( "BerkTemp2.txt" )
BkYr := BerkTemp + BerkTemp 1 0.08333
BCVFit := READPRN ( "forcing-comparison-data2.txt" ) ==> Year , CO2, Volcan o, ln(), Volcano, T, Tfit
1
1
:= 8.342105 := 4.466369 := 0.01515
Fit := 8.8 + ln BCVFit 277.3
+ BCVFit
MLCO2 := READPRN ( "NOA_Mauna_Loa_Monthly_CO2_14.txt" )
Berkeley Land 5 Year Average Temp (Blue), CO2 (Black) , and Simple CO2/Vocano Fit (Red)
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1760
1780
1800
1820
1840
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
400
390
380
370
360
350
340
330
320
310
300
290
280
270
2020
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1760
1955
1780
1.2
1.1
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
1880 1890
1960
1800
1900
1965
1820
1910
1970
1840
1920
1975
1860
1930
1980
1880
1940
1985
1900
1950
1990
1920
1960
1970
1995
1940
1980
2000
1960
1990
2005
1980
2000
2010
2000
400
390
380
370
360
350
340
330
320
310
300
290
280
270
2020
2010
400
390
380
370
360
350
340
330
320
310
300
290
280
270
2020
CO2 Levels (ppm)
400
390
380
370
360
350
340
330
320
310
300
290
280
270
2015
CO2 Levels (ppm)
1.2
1.1
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
1950
CO2 Levels (ppm)
Year
15
4. GISS Zonal: Annual mean Land-Ocean Temperature - Selected zonal means 1880 - 2013
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/ZonAnn.Ts.txt
Fields: Year Glob NHem SHem -90N -24N -24S -90N -64N -44N -24N -E
0
2
USZTemp := READPRN ( "ZonAnnT1880-2013.txt"NHTSmth
)
:= ksmooth USZTemp , USZTemp 0.01 , 5
0
3
0
1
5
USZTSmth := ksmooth USZTemp , USZTemp 0.01 ,GTSmth
:= ksmooth USZTemp , USZTemp 0.01
3. Hemispheric Temperature Change NH (Blue) SH (Red) Global (Black)

1.2
1.1
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Year
http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/
Year Mo Globe Land Ocean NH Land Ocean SH Land Ocean Trpcs Land Ocean NoExt Land Ocean
SoExt Land Ocean NoPol Land Ocean SoPol Land Ocean USA48
Tsat13 := READPRN ( "uahncdc1978 to 9-2014dat.txt" )

Ice Ages and Interglacials - Page 219
SOI Data: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/soi
0
1
1
Yrsat13 := Tsat13 + Tsat13 1
) 12
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI): A standardized

index based on the observed sea level pressure
differences between Tahiti and Darwin.
Satellite Global Temp Anomaly and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)

0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Years
16
6. Heat Content of Oceans -Indisputable evidence of global warming, but ~Tavg= 0.025K
Levitus et al., Geophysical Research Letters 36 (2009): L07608.
Mass_Ocean := 1.4 10 kg T avg := 14 10 J Mass_Ocean 4000J ( kg K)

21
22
1
=
0.025 K
7 . IPCC Report "Climate Change 2007: "Synthesis Report - Summary for Policymakers.
Comparison of observed continental- and global-scale changes in surface temperature with results simulated
by climate models using either natural or both natural and anthro pogenic forcings. Decadal averages.
8. Analysis: Statistics of Climate Change - Temp Rise is Non Monotonic - 70 Year Cycles
Reference: "ABRUPT GLOBAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE AND THE INSTRUMENTAL RECOR D," Menn e
Use GISS Global Temp Data: "GISS NASA Global Temp Mean Fig2A.TXT" from Above
Break into Four 35 Year Periods: 1880 to 1910, 1911 to 1945, 1946 to 1980 and 1981 to 2010
Use Analysis from: http://www.leapcad.com/Climate_Analysis/Cycles_and_Trends_Average_Temp.xmcd
T abrupt := READPRN ( "GAbrupt.txt" )
Note: Temperature Plateaus and then Climbs in 70 Year Cycles

7. Analysis: Abrupt NOAA Global Annual Mean Temperature in 70 Year Cycles

0.9
1945
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Year
Correlation Coefficient: corr GTemp 13 0.01 , T abrupt = Stdev ( Tabrupt) = 0.23426
t Test:
t :=
0.98622
0.23434
= 4.2085
These 70 year cycles are statistically significant
17
SECTION III-A. CO2 Concentration Changes

1. Global Temperature and Atmospheric CO2 over Geologic Time
Paleozoic, Mesozoic, Cenozoic: 600 to 0 Million Years BPA
Temperature: http://www.scotese.com/climate.htm
"GEOCARB III: A REVISED MODEL OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 OVER PHANEROZOIC TIME", R.A. Berner, 2 001
See also: http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/CO2_Temp_O2.html
Late Carboniferous to Early Permian time (315 mya -- 270 mya) is the only time period in the last 600 million
years
when both
atmospheric
CO2 and temperatures
were over
as low
as theyTime.txt"
are toda y) (Quaterna ry Period ).
PaleoTemp
:= READPRN
( "Temp-Comparing
CO2 -Temp
Geologic
RCO2 := READPRN ( "Effect of GCM Model Params - GEOCARB II.txt" )

RCO2 = mass of atmos. CO2(t)/mass of CO2(0)
ppm = 300 ppm x RCO2
1
4
PaleoCO2 := RCO2 300
3
1. Comparing CO2 (Red) and Temperature (Blue) Over Geologic Time
Paleozoic
Mesozoic
Cenozoic
24
6000
22
5000
20
4000
18
3000
16
2000
14
1000
12
500
400
300
200
100
Global Temperature (C)
Atmospheric CO2 (ppm)
7000
10
0
Millions of Years Before Present
CO2 Concentration Monthly Plot

2. The Keeling Curve: Mauna Loa Observation Hawaii Monthly CO2 Concentration Data
The carbon dioxide data, measured as the mole fraction in dry air, on Mauna Loa constitute the longest
record of direct measurements of CO2 in the atmosphere. This data is the gold standard in climate
research. They were started by C. David Keeling of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in March of
1958 at a facility of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Keeling, 1979). NOAA started
its own CO2 measurements in May of 1974. The moving average is for seven adjacent seasonal cycles
centered on the month to be corrected, except for the first and last three and one-half years of the record,
where the seasonal cycle has been averaged over the first and last seven years, respectively. The
estimated uncertainty in the Mauna Loa annual mean growth rate is 0.11 ppm/yr. This estimate is based
on the standard deviation of the differences between monthly mean values.
Keeling had perfected the measurement techniques and observed strong diurnal behaviour with steady
values of about 310 ppm in the afternoon at three locations (Big Sur near Monterey, the rain forests of
Olympic Peninsula and high mountain forests in Arizona). By measuring the ratio of two isotopes of
carbon, Keeling attributed the diurnal change to respiration from local plants and soils, with afternoon
values representative of the "free atmosphere". By 1960, Keeling and his group established the
measurement record that was long enough to see not just the diurnal and seasonal variations, but also a
year-on-year increase that roughly matched the amount of fossil fuels burned per year.
The Keeling Curve also shows a cyclic variation of about 5 ppmv in each year corresponding to the seasonal
change in uptake of CO2 by the world's land vegetation. Most of this vegetation is in the Northern hemisphere,
since this is where most of the land is located. The level decreases from northern spring (May) onwards as new
plant growth takes carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere through photosynthesis and rises again in the northern
fall as plants and leaves die off and decay to release the gas back into the atmosphere.
Read data from http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/co2_data_mlo.
18
Year Month decimal average interpolated trend #days

date
ppm
ppm (season corr)
MLCO2 := READPRN ( "NOA_Mauna_Loa_Monthly_CO2_14.txt" )
2
Date := MLCO2
4
CO2ML := MLCO2
5
TrendCO2 := MLCO2
RD := rows ( Date )
Get CO2 Trend Line from 1990 to 2010
Date1990 := submatrix ( Date , 383 , RD 1 , 0 ,L0co2

) := line Date1990 , submatrix ( TrendCO2 , 383 , RD 1 , 0
Trendco2 ( Year) := Lco2 + Lco2 Year
0
1
Keeling ( yr) := 1.054 10
( yr 1960) + 9 10
( yr 1960) + 315.5
Monthly Average CO2 (ppm)
Mauna Loa CO2 Seasonal ppm vs. Time

410
400
390
380
370
360
350
340
330
320
310
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Decimal Months/Years
2b. Mauna Loa CO2: Seasonal ppm +- 3 ppm Seasonal Swing about Trend Line
Monthly Average CO2 (ppm)
405
400
395
390
385
380
375
370
365
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Decimal Months/Years
Increase per year (%)
3. Neftel Siple Ice Station - 1847 to 1953

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/co2/siple2.013
Avg depth Gas concentration
(m) (yr AD) (ppmv)
( 390 372) 100

= 0.48387
10 372
SipleCO2 := READPRN ( "Friedli Siple CO2 1986.TXT" IceCO2

)
:= READPRN ( "CO2 Ice Core Data.txt"
http://www.wasserplanet.becsoft.de/180CO2/CO2tot1812-2007.txt
Column C: CO2 total 1812-1961 corrected. annual averages from raw data.
BeckCO2 := READPRN ( "Beck CO2 Corrected.TXT" )
0
1
BeckSmth := ksmooth BeckCO2 , BeckCO2 , 10
19
See: "CO2: The Greatest Scientific Scandal of our Time", Zbigniew Jaworowski
This applies to all the CO2 Ice Core data shown in this worksheet
3. CO2 Yearly ppm: Composite Ice Core & Keeling (Hockey Stick) vs. Beck (Black)
430
Average CO2 (ppm)
410
Beck Smith
Historical
Direct
Instrument
Records
390
370
350
330
310
290
270
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
Years
E.G. Beck 180 years accurate CO2 analysis in air by chemical methods, In press Energy&Environment
After a more thorough review of the old literature, E.G.Beck concluded that there were indications
that current CO2 concentrations were considerably exceeded in the 1820s and again in the 1940s
Beck CO2 Yearly ppm

430
Average CO2 (ppm)
410
390
370
350
330
310
290
270
1810
1830
1850
1870
1890
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
Years
www.soest.hawaii.edu/GG/FACULTY/POPP/Lecture15.ppt
Measurements of CO2 concentration - Core from rapidly accumulating ice
Merge well with instrumental data1763 - major improvements to the steam engine by the
Scottish engineer James Watt
1769 first self-powered road vehicle, built by French inventor Nicholas Cugnot
1780 - formulation of the Law of Combustion by the French scientist Antoine Lavoisier
1790 - invention of the electrical battery by the Italian scientist Luigi Galvani
1807 - development of commercial steamboats by the American inventor Robert Fulton
1816 first U.S. energy utility company and natural gas is used to light streets of Baltimore
1851 - height of the New England whaling industry
1886 German mechanical engineer Karl Benz first patent for gasoline-powered ICE car
1903 first sustained powered air flight, at Kill Devil Hills, North Carolina
20
4. Vostok Ice Core CO2 Data: Barnola et al, Nature, 329, 408-414 (1987)
Depth (m), Ice Age(yrs), Gaz age (Yrs), CO2 (ppmv), minimum, maximum
BarnolaCO2 := READPRN ( "Barnola Vostok CO2 1987.TXT" )
IceAgeCO2Level := 205
Vostok cores show that CO2 concentrations are at the highest level in 160,000 years.
CO2 Concentration (ppmv)
4. Barnola Vostok and Trend CO2 Concentration Data - 160,000 Yrs.

400
380
360
340
320
300
280
260
240
220
200
180
Keeling Curve-->
1960 to 2010
Splice
IceAgeCO2Level
140000 120000 100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
5. An imperative for climate change planning: tracking E arths global energy

Kevin E Trenberth
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/Trenberth/trenberth.papers/EnergyDiagnostics09final2.pdf
Plot data from above article for Fig 1
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/hadcrut3vgl.txt
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/HadCRUT4-gl.dat
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/CRUTEM4-gl.dat
Column 13 has yearly Temp data.

Monthly Temp Data 1850 to Feb 2013
Monthly Temp Data 1850 to Oct 2014
HadCrutE4 := READPRN ( "HadCRUTEM4-gl.txt"

rows
) ( HadCrutE4) = 164cols ( HadCrutE4) = 2 nx := 0 .. 163
HadCrut4 := READPRN ( "HadCRUT3v-gl.txt" ) rows ( HadCrut4 ) = 163 cols ( HadCrut4 ) = 1
HadCrutx := READPRN ( "hadcrut3glx.txt" )
rows ( HadCrutx ) = 160 cols ( HadCrutx ) = 14
HadCrut4x := READPRN ( "HadCRUT3v-glx.txt"rows

) ( HadCrut4x ) = 163 cols ( HadCrut4x ) = 2
Timecrut := HadCrutE4nx , 0 TCrutnx := HadCrutE4nx , 1

TCrutPlus := ( ( TCrut ) TCrut )
nx
Note: For this plot, years 1980 - 2014 show a solid plus warming.
CO2 (vppm)
Temp (C)
Global Temp (Bars) & CO2 Levels (Black Line) vs. Time
0.9
420
1980
2014
0.8
410
0.7
400
0.6
390
0.5
380
0.4
370
0.3
360
0.2
350
0.1
340
0
330
0.1
320
0.2
310
0.3
300
0.4
290
0.5
280
0.6
270
1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Years
21
Does Temp track CO2? Fails Decadal Examination.

Note: Decadal forecasts are a known of weakness of generic numeric general circulation models.
Global Satellite Temperature Does NOT TRACK CO2 During the Last 18 Years
400
0.7
395
0.6
390
0.5
385
0.4
380
0.3
375
0.2
370
0.1
365
CO2 (vppm)
Temp (C)
Global Satellite Temp (Red) & CO2 Levels (Black) vs. Time
0.8
0
360
19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014 2015
Years
Satellite Global Temp Anomaly, SOI, and CO2

0.6
400
0.4
390
0.2
Tsat13 2
380
370
ENSOXS
0.2
CO2ML
TrendCO2
360
0.4
350
0.6
340
19801982 1984 19861988 1990 19921994 1996 1998 20002002 2004 20062008 2010 2012 2014
Yrsat13 , ENSOD , Date , Date

Years
Use Ice Core and NOA _Mauna_Loa_Trend_CO2.txt versus hadcrut3glx.txt in file

Correlation_Yr_CO2_Temp.TXT.
CorrCO2Temp := READPRN ( "Correlation_Yr_CO2_Temp.TXT" )

1
2 2
RSquare := corr CorrCO2Temp , CorrCO2Temp
1
2
s := slope CorrCO2Temp , CorrCO2Temp
= 0.00847
RSquare = 0.80882
1
2
int := intercept CorrCO2Temp , CorrCO2Temp
= 2.82393
1
T := int + s CorrCO2Temp
22
Correlation (1854 to 2009) Does Not Necessarily Mean Causation
Temp Anomaly
Correlation between CO2 ppm and Temp Anomaly (1854-2009)

0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
2 0.2
CorrCO2Temp
0.1
0.1280 290
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
CorrCO2Temp 1
CO2 (ppm)
Covariation Between CO2 and D

If the D change reflects a proportional T drop, then more than of the interglacial-to-glacial
change occurred before significant removal of atmospheric CO2
Values shown normalized to their mean values during the mid-Holocene (57 kya BP) and the
last glacial (1860 kya BP) Clearly visible are the disproportionately low deuterium values
during the mid-glacial (6080 Kya BP), the glacial inception (95125 KyaBP), and the
penultimate glacial maximum (140150 Kya BP)
Covariation of carbon dioxide and temperature from the Vostok ice core after deuterium-excess
correction" Kurt M. Cuffey & Franoise Vimeux
SECTION III-B. CO2 Production Projections, Scenarios, and Fossil Fuel Projections
ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE
The concentration of CO2 in Earths atmosphere has increased during the past century, as shown
in Figure below. The magnitude of this atmospheric increase is currently about 4 giga tons (Gt C)
of carbon per year. Total human industrial CO2 production, primarily from use of coal, oil, and
natural gas and the production of cement, is currently about 8 Gt C per year (7,56,57). Humans
also exhale about 0.6 Gt C per year, which has been sequestered by plants from atmospheric
CO2. Office air concentrations often exceed 1,000 ppm CO2. To put these figures in perspective,
it is estimated that the atmosphere contains 780 Gt C; the surface ocean contains 1,000 Gt C;
vegetation, soils, and detritus contain 2,000 Gt C; and the intermediate and deep oceans contain
38,000 Gt C, as CO2 or CO2 hydration products. Each year, the surface ocean and atmosphere
exchange an estimated 90 Gt C; vegetation and the atmosphere, 100 Gt C; marine biota and the
surface ocean, 50 Gt C; and the surface ocean and the intermediate and deep oceans, 40 Gt C
(56,57). So great are the magnitudes of these reservoirs, the rates of exchange between them,
and the uncertainties of these estimated numbers that the sources of the recent rise in
atmospheric CO2 have not been determined with certainty (58,59). Atmospheric concentrations of
CO2 are reported to have varied widely over geo logical time, with peaks, according to some
estimates, some 20-fold higher than at present and lows at approximately 200 ppm (60-62).
% Industrial Production per Atmosphere
8 100
780
= 1.02564
The Climate Catastrophe - A Spectroscopic Artifact
23
Is the airborne fraction of anthropogenic CO2 emissions increasing?

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Is-the-airborne-fraction-of-anthropogenic-CO2-emissions-increasing.html
Knorr finds that since 1850, the airborne fraction has remained relatively constant. When CO2 emissions were
low, the amount of CO2 absorbed by natural carbon sinks was correspondingly low. As human CO2 sharply
increased emissions in the 20th Century, the amount absorbed by nature correspondingly increased. The airborne
fraction remained level at around 43%. The trend since 1850 is found to be 0.7 1.4% per decade.
There are several differences in methodology between Knorr 2009and Le Quere 2009. Knorr's result does not
include the filtering for ENSO and volcanic activity employed by Le Qur. However, when filterin g Kno rr does
include this in his analysis, he finds a trend of 1.2 0.9% per decade. This is smaller than Le Quere's result but is
statistically significant.
CDIAC - Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center - Global Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/meth_reg.html
Year Total
Gas Liquids Solids Cement_Production Gas_Flaring Per_Capita
Units of million metric tons of carbon. Per capita emission estimates in metric tons of carbon.
Emiss := READPRN ( "Global CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Burning-1751_2006.txt" )

1. Calculate Change per Year - Note there are sources other than anthropogenic
GigaTonCarbon:
ppm := 2.1 10 ton
t := 0 .. rows ( IceCO2) 2
rows CO2ML = 679
IceCO2Inct :=
d := 0 .. 50
IncCO2ML := TrendCO2
td
dd
tdd := 9 + d 12
TrendCO2
dd+1
1 1
EmissWt := Emiss
dd := 0 .. 49
td50 = 609
2.1DateDdd := Date td
dd
dd+1
EmissLevel := 0.55 EmissWt
1000
Emiss209 , 0 = 1960
td
IceCO2t+ 1 , 1 IceCO2t , 1
2.1
IceCO2t+ 1 , 0 IceCO2t , 0
EmissWt255 EmissWt209
Emiss255 , 0 = 2006
2006 1960
= 0.12289
CDIAC - Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center - Global Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions
1. Yearly CO2 Emission & Atmospheric Increases, and Atm ppm (Black) - 1850 to Present
Atm. Increase (GtC/Yr)
400
380
6
360
5
4
340
320
2
300
1
0
1850
1900
1950
2000
280
Years
24
2. Global Atmospheric CO2 Projections: IPCC Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES)
http://www.ipcc-data.org/ancilliary/tar-isam.txt
https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/spm/sres-en.pdf
Year A1B A1 T A1FI A2 B1 B2 A1p A2p B1p B2p IS92 IS92a/SAR

ProjCO2 := READPRN ( "CO2 AR4 Emission Proj-Data.txt" )
AR4 Forcings for Different CO2 Emission Scenarios
A1F1 (Fossil Fuel Intensive)
1000
900
Atmospheric CO2 (ppm)
CO2 SRES Emission Scenarios

A2 (Fragmented)
800
A1B (Balanced)
A1T (Non Fossil Energy Sources)
B1 (Environmental Emphasis)
Level 2 Emission Trajectory
Stabilization @550 ppm
700
600
500
400
300
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Year
3. World Energy Production Projection
25
SECTION III-C. Fossil Fuel Energy Sources - CO2 Emission Sources

1. Main Areas of Human Energy Comsumption in the US
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/gases/co2.html
Electricity 38%, Transportation 32%, Industry 14%, Residetial 9% and NonFossil Fuel 6%
Electricity is not a primary energy source. It is one of the most common energy carriers. generate 3 to 4
times more torque per unit energy input than all but the largest and most efficient house-sized diesel ship
engines (50 percent efficient).
2. Human Contribution Relative to Other Sources of CO2
The burning of fossil fuels sends 7 gigatons (3.27 %) of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere each
year, while the biosphere and oceans account for 440 (55.28 %) and 330 (41.46 %) gigatons,
respectivelytotal human emissions have jumped sharply since the Industrial Revolution. Carbon is
emitted naturally into the atmosphere but that the atmosphere also sends carbon back to the land and
oceans and that these carbon flows have canceled each other out for millennia. Burning fossil fuels, in
contrast, creates a new flow of carbon that, though small, is not cancelled.
3. Coal Usage and Factors
Source: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/392167/social-justice-coal-robert-bryce
Coal is perfectly suited for electricity production, it's abundant, its reserves are geographically
dispersed, prices are not affected by any OPEC-like entities, and above all it's cheap. Coal-fired
generators provide about 40 percent of all global electricity. Coal is the most carbon intensive fossil fuel.
Coal is the world's fastest-growing form of energy and it has been since 1973. In 2013 alone, coal use
grew by about 2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d). That was about three times the growth
seen in natural gas (which grew by about 700,000 boe/d), four times the rate of growth in wind (up by
about 500,000 boe/d), and 13 times the growth in solar (which was up by about 150,000 boe/d).
China has led the rush toward coal and now accounts for fully half of global coal consumption.
Increased use of hydrocarbons results in better living standards. Indeed, per capita carbon dioxide
emissions (like per capita electricity usage) are a reliable indicator of higher incomes.
4. Oil Production - US Drilling Rigs - December 2014
Why is the world market suddenly awash in oil? The answer: Over the past few years thanks to rigs,
rednecks, and rights the U.S. has added the equivalent of one Kuwait and one Iran to its domestic oil
and gas production.
Since 2004, U.S. oil production is up 56 percent, or about 3.1 million barrels a day, about the same
volume as Kuwait produced last year. The dimensions of the boom in natural gas can be seen by looking
solely at the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania, where output has jumped eight-fold since 2010 and is now
about 16 billion cubic feet per day, a volume roughly equal to Iran's current natural-gas production.
U.S. oil and gas numbers are soaring because of an abundance of rigs. More than half of all the
drilling rigs on the planet are operating in the United States. We have about 1,900 active rigs. The
rest of the world combined has about 1,300.
26
IV. Solar Variation: Wolf Number, Sunspots, C14 SS Extrema, Irradiance, Wind
See Section XIIA for Solar Radiation Spectrum and XIIIB for Reflectance.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_variation
The Sun and Climate
http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs-0095-00/fs-0095-00.pdf
Many geologic records of climatic and environmental change based on
various proxy variables exhibit distinct cyclicities that have been attributed to
extraterrestrial forcing. ... Another terrestrial observation was that the Maunder Minimum coincided
with the coldest part of the Little Ice Age.
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Carbon-14_with_activity_labels.png
http://www.radiocarbon.org/IntCal04%20files/intcal04.14c
Read Carbon 14 Atmospheric Concentration Data
#
CAL BP, 14C age, Error, Delta 14C, Sigma,
YR BP ,YR BP,
per mil , per mil
0
Yr := C14 + 40
C14 := READPRN ( "Atmospheric C14 Concentration.TXT" )

3
SSSmooth := ksmooth reverse ( Yr) , reverse C14
, 2000
3
Detrend := reverse C14
SSSmooth
SSCycle := ksmooth ( reverse ( Yr) , Detrend , 1000)
Yrss := 2010 Yr
Wolf number
The Wolf number (also known as the International sunspot number, relative sunspot
number, or Z rich number) is a q uan tity which measures th e n umb er o f sunspots and
groups of sunspots present on the surface of the sun.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolf_number
The Solar Physics Group at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center
Royal Greenwich Observatory - USAF/NOAA Sunspot Data
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/greenwch/spot_num.txt
Sunspot Monthly Averages -2013.txt: Spliced above with RecentIndices.txt data from
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/RecentIndices.txt
Read Sunspot Data
YEAR MON SSN DEV
2
SSpots := READPRN ( "SunSpot Monthly Averages -2013.txt" ) NumSS := SSpots
1
0 SSpots 1
YrDec := SSpots +
2014SSpotYrly := READPRN ( "SSpotYrly.dat" )
12
1
0 SSpots 1
SSSmth := ksmooth ( YrDec , NumSS , 11)
YrDec := SSpots +
12
Solar Influences Data Analysis Center - S IDC

http://www.sidc.be/sunspot-data/
Updated 10-23-2014
YrMon, Year_Decimal, Monthly, Mon thly Smo othed Su nspot Number, 1749 to 2014
SSN := READPRN ( "monthssn201409.dat" )
SSNYr := READPRN ( "yearssn2013.dat" )

0
1
SSNYrSmooth := ksmooth SSNYr , SSNYr , 11
NGDC - Group Sunspot Numbers (Doug Hoyt re-evaluation) 1610-1995

http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/SOLAR/ftpsunspotnumber.html#hoyt - 4bb. monthrg.dat
0
1
SSN_Hoyt := READPRN ( "Grp SSN-monthrg-1610-1995.dat" )SSNS := ksmooth SSNYr , SSNYr , 10
NGDC-Table of smoothed monthly sunspot numbers 1700-present

Year, SNN-Jan to SNN-Dec
SSNSm_Hoyt := READPRN ( "SmoothMonthMeanHoyt-1749-2009.txt" ) R := rows ( SSNSm_Hoyt)

12
r := 0 .. R 1
SSHr :=
SSNSm_Hoyt 1
r, m
12
m=1
Smooth Hadcrut over 11 year cylce-like Su n Sp ots:
0
YearH := SSNSm_Hoyt
TKSmooth := ksmooth Timecrut , TCrut , 11
27
1. TCrut Temp, Solar Proxy: Changes C14 Concentration, Sunspot Extrema Periods, & #Sun Spots
220
0.9
0.8
0.7
Solar Cycle #: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1718 19 20 21 22 23 24
180
0.6
0.5
160
0.4
140
0.3
120
0.2
0.1
100
0
80
0.1
60
0.2
0.3
40
0.4
20
0.5
0
0.6
1690 1710 1730 1750 1770 1790 1810 1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030
Number of Sunspots
200
Calendar Years BP
2. Solar Sun Spot Epochs (910 to 2010) - Maunder Minimum

Maunder Minimum: 70 year period from 1645 to 1710 when all solar activity stopped
Solar Proxy: Changes C14 Concentration
30
Carbon 14 Concentration
25
20
15
10
5
Medieval
Maximum
Modern
Maximum
Oort
Minimum
0
5
Wolf
Minimum
10
Sprer
Minimum
Maunder
Minimum
15
20
910
1010
1110
1210
1310
1410
1510
1610
1710
1810
1910
2010
Calendar Years BP
3. Extended C14 Data (Red) Smoothed Data (Dotted Blue)

Detrended Data (Solid Black ) Hallstadzeit Cycles (Heavy Magenta Curve)
Carbon 14 Concentration
Hallstadtzeit Cycles Periodicity ~2000Yr

120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
10
20
Detrended
Data
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
Calendar Years BP
28
4. PMOD Total Solar Irradiance, TSI, Composite

"The Suns Total Irradiance: Cycles, Trends and Related Climate Change Uncertainties since 1978"
PMOD/WRC, Davos, Switzerland, "Unpublished data from the VIRGO Experiment on the cooperative
ESA/NASA Mission SoHO"
ftp://ftp.pmodwrc.ch/pub/data/irradiance/composite
YYMMDD, epoch (1 corresponds to 1-Jan-1980), average irradiance in W/m2
TSIPMOD := READPRN ( "TSI from 1979 to 2009-PMOD composite_d41_62_0906.txt" )

1
TSIPMOD
RR := rows TSIPMOD
Dateepp := 1980 +
365
TSIsmm := READPRN ( "TSIsm8.txt" )
Revised! 2014 IPCC AR5 Data
Years := Date epp

Date epp
RR1
0
Years = 30.58082
TSI2014 := READPRN ( "TSI to 2013-5.TXT" )
Reconstruction of Solar Irradiance since 1610, Lean 1995 (1600-1995

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/lean1995/
YEAR
BACKGRND
QS+11-YR TOTAL
0
TSDFlean := READPRN ( "lean1995data.txt" ) Yrlean := TSDFlean
4. PMOD Total Solar Irradiance: Red & Blue Old,
1
TSDlean := Fill TSDFlean
Black, Revised! IPCC 2014
1368
Irradiance (w/m2)
1367
1366
1365
1364
1363
1362
1361
1360
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Years
5. Reconstruction of solar irradiance since 1610, Lean 1995 (1600-1995) - Correlates to Temp
Solar Irradiance Correlates with U.S. Temp Anomaly
Lean Reconstructed Solar Irradiance (Red), PMOD+1.5 (Green), and Temp Anomaly (Blue)
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
1367
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
1366
0.2
0.1
0
0.1
1365
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
1364
162016401660 16801700 17201740 17601780 180018201840 18601880 19001920 19401960 19802000 2020
Temp Anomaly (C)
Irradiance (w/m2)
1368
Years
29
6. NASA OMNI2: Solar Wind Pressure and Decadal Trends

Solar Wind Pressure and Trends
http://omniweb.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi/nx1.cgi
omni2_27day data from 19630130 to 20091230
Scalar B, nT, Flow pressure
YEAR DOY HR 1 2
SWPF := READPRN ( "OMNI_Solar_Wind_1963_27Day.dat" )
SWP := Fillin ( SWPF)
Note the downward trend in Solar Wind Pressure since 1993,

a flattening, and then renewed fall in 2005 at an equal rate,
dropping to 1970 levels. This hints that we will be seeing a
period of reduced solar activity - See the next SECTION on
Solar Prediction.
6. NASA ONMI2 Solar Wind Pressure (27 Day Average)
8
Solar Pressure (nPa)
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Years
30
7. NASA: Solar Cycle Prediction ==> Global Cooling - Updated 2010

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml
A historic low period of the Sun's activity is coming.
NASA: Solar Cycle 25 peaking around 2022 could be one of the weakest in centuries.
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/10may_longrange.htm
What influence does the sun have on global climate?

The Sun provides the energy that drives the climate system. Long-term variations in the
intensity of solar energy reaching the Earth are believed to cause climate change on
geological time-scales. New studies indicate that changes in the Sun'92s magnetic field
may be responsible for shorter-term changes in climate, including much of the climate of the
20th century. Also, at least one indirect effect of solar variability, the effect that changes in the
amount of UV radiation emitted by the Sun have on the warming effect of the ozone layer,
has been established. A second indirect effect, the effect that changes in solar radiation have
on cosmic-ray induced cloudiness, has been hypothesized, but not proven. This suggested
effect is being studied both by observations and in laboratory simulations.
The strength of the Sun'92s magnetic field varies through the 11-year solar cycle.
When the Sun'92s magnetic field is strong, it reduces the number of cosmic rays
hitting the Earth. Laboratory experiments have shown that cosmic rays are one of
the factors causing the formation of water droplets and clouds in the atmosphere. In
1997, two Danish researchers, Svensmark and Friis-Christiansen, showed that from 1983 to
1994, there was a high degree of correlation between total cloud cover and the
number of cosmic rays striking the Earth, which in turn is correlated with the intensity of
the Sun'92s magnetic field. The changes in cloud cover, 3-4 percent, were large enough
to explain much of climate change. Additional observational studies aimed at determining
whether there is a correlation between solar intensity and cloudiness are underway, and
CERN, the European Organization for Nuclear Research, will be conducting laboratory
experiments to determine whether simulated cosmic rays
can, in fact, create the conditions for cloud formation.
Svensmark, H. and E. Friis-Christiansen, 1997: Variation of cosmic ray flux and global cloud
cover '96 A missing link in solar-climate relationships. Journal of Atmospheric, Solar and
Terrestrial Physics, 59: 1225-32.
Svensmark, H. and N. Calder, 2007, op cit.
Ibid., Pg. 562.
31
SECTION V. Solar Radiation Spectrum

1. Top of Atmosphere and 2. Sea Level
Note: Relative Importance of Water Vapor versus CO2 absorption. Greenhouse gasesincluding most diatomic gases
with two different atoms (such as carbon monoxide, CO) and all gases with three or more atomsare able to absorb
and emit infrared radiation. Though more than 99% of the dry atmosphere is IR transparent (because the main
constituentsN2, O2, and Arare not able to directly absorb or emit infrared radiation), intermolecular collisions
cause the energy absorbed and emitted by the greenhouse gases to be shared with the other, non-IR-active, gases.
http://climatemodels.uchicago.edu/modtran/modtran.doc.html
2. Comparison of MODTRAN Model to Nimbus 3 IRIS instrument
32
3. High Measurements of the Radiative Surface Forcing of Climate

W.F.J. Evans, North West Research Associates, Bellevue, WA; and E. Puckrin
https://ams.confex.com/ams/Annual2006/techprogram/paper_100737.htm
The earth's climate system is warmed by 35 C due to the emission of downward infrared radiation by
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (surface radiative forcing) or by the absorption of upward infrared
radiation (radiative trapping). Increases in this emission/absorption are the driving force behind global
warming. Climate models predict that the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere has altered the
radiative energy balance at the earth's surface by several percent by increasing the greenhouse radiation from
the atmosphere. With measurements at high spectral resolution, this increase can be quantitatively
attributed to each of several anthropogenic gases. Radiance spectra of the greenhouse radiation from the
atmosphere have been measured at ground level from several Canadian sites using FTIR spectroscopy at high
resolution. The forcing radiative fluxes from CFC11, CFC12, CCl4, HNO3, O3, N2O, CH4, CO and CO2 have
been quantitatively determined over a range of seasons. The contributions from stratospheric ozone and
tropospheric ozone are separated by our measurement techniques. A comparison between our measurements
of surface forcing emission and measurements of radiative trapping absorption from the IMG satellite
instrument shows reasonable agreement. The experimental fluxes are simulated well by the FASCOD3
radiation code. This code has been used to calculate the model predicted increase in surface radiative
forcing since 1850 to be 2.55 W/m2. In comparison, an ensemble summary of our measurements indicates
that an energy flux imbalance of 3.5 W/m2 has been created by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases
since 1850. This experimental data should effectively end the argument by skeptics that no experimental
evidence exists for the connection between greenhouse gas increases in the atmosphere and global warming.
A typical winter spectrum of the downward radiance in the 5-16 m wavelength range is shown in the
Figure below, with the emission from several greenhouse gases identified.
Spectrum of the greenhouse radiation measured at the surface. Greenhouse effect from water va pour is filtered
out, showing the contributions of other greenhouse gases (Evans 2006).
33
Section VI.
The three main orbital variations. Eccentricity: changes in the shape of the Earths orbit.
Obliquity: changes in the tilt of the Earths rotational axis. Max 9% in distance ~ 20% in insolation.
Precession: wobbles in the Earths rotational axis.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/Why-does-CO2-lag-temperature.html
Interglacials come along approximately every 100,000 years. This is called the Milankovitch cycle,
brought on by changes in the Earth's orbit. There are three main changes to the earth's orbit. The shape of
the Earth's orbit around the sun (eccentricity) varies between an ellipse to a more circular shape. The
earth's axis is tilted relative to the sun at around 23. This tilt oscillates between 22.5 and 24.5 (obliquity).
As the earth spins around it's axis, the axis wobbles from pointing towards the North Star to pointing at
the star Vega (precession).
34
The astronomical theory of palaeoclimates after Milankovitch (1930, 1941)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles
relates climatic change to variations of the amount of solar energy received by the Earth
as a consequence of quasi-periodic changes in celestial geometry (see Imbrie & Imbrie,
1979, and Berger, 1988, for reviews). Of particular importance are variations in the
eccentricity of the Earths orbit (with dominant periods of roughly 400 kyr and 100 kyr), in
the obliquity of the Earths rotational axis relative to the orbital plane (with characteristic
periods of 54 kyr and 41 kyr) and in the precession of the equinox or more exactly the
eccentricity modulated precession expressed by the precessional index of Berger (1976,
1978b) (with periods of 23 kyr nd 19 kyr). The obliquity cycle is more effective in high
latitudes, whereas the low latitudes are dominated by the precessional cycle.
See _Global Warming - Milankovitch.doc for list of articles
The next tipping point comes in ca. 50,000 years from now, when the Milankovich forcing
almost certainly would be sufficient to start glaciation.
Solar System Orbital Simulation Data
The presence of chaos, moreover, severely limits th e accuracy of o rbital integratio ns on the time
scale of millions of years. Chaos causes initial errors to grow exponentially in time, and so the
simulated orbits diverge from the correct ones.
http://astrobiology.ucla.edu/OTHER/SSO/
1. Astronomical Solar Insolation Forcing

Early Plesitocene Glacial Cycles - Huybers
Link between glacial extent and solar forcing (orbital configuration).
ftp://ftp.astr.ucl.ac.be/pub/loutre/QSR/
BergerFILE2_90.DAT
INSOLATION DEC
Year 90NDec 60NDec 30NDec 0 Dec 30SDec 60SDec 90SDec
InsDec := READPRN ( "BergerFILE2_90.DAT" ) InsJun := READPRN ( "BergerFILE3_90.DAT" )

4
MeanIns := mean InsJun
MeanIns = 398.33779
(
)
0
4
InsSmooth := 40 ( ksmooth ( InsJun , InsJun , 100) MeanIns) + MeanIns
1. Berger: 30N June Isolation, T Vostok
450
440
Isolation (W/m2)
430
420
410
400
390
380
370
360
350
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Calendar Years x 1000 BP
35
2. Milankovitch radiation for different latitudes and time periods

www.climatedata.info Average of 60 and 70 N
BP, Months 7 to 7, Annual 65N, Annual global, Global cos-weighted
Mlnkvthh_Ins := READPRN ( "Milankovitch - Isolation - ClimateCom.txt" )
1
MeanMkvh := mean Mlnkvthh_Ins
MeanMkvh = 444.08333
Mlnkvthh_Ins0
MkvhSmooth := ksmooth
1
, Mlnkvthh_Ins , 100
1000
MkvhSmth := 40 ( MkvhSmooth MeanMkvh) + MeanMkvh
Isolation (W/m2)
2. Milankovitch Iso Annual 65N, T Vostok

500
490
480
470
460
450
440
430
420
410
400
720
640
560
480
400
320
240
160
80
Calendar Years x 1000 BP
NASA Earth Observing S ystems (EOS ) Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE)
An imperative for climate change planning: tracking Earths global energy
http://lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/tsi_data/daily/sorce_tsi_L3_c24h_m29_v10_20030225_20091223.txt
nominal_date_yyyymmdd R8 f12.3 (Column 1: Nominal Data Time, YYYYMMDD) ; ; tsi_1au R8 f10.4
(Column 5: Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) at 1-AU, W/m^2)
TSI := READPRN ( "Total Solar Irradiance.txt" )
rows ( TSI) = 2494
n := 0 .. 2493
4
TSIP := TSI TSIPn := if ( TSIPn = 0 , TSIPn 1 , TSIPmean
Avgn := 1361
n ) ( TSIP) = 1361.04101
YrDecSn := str2num ( substr ( num2str ( TSIn , 0) , 0 , 4) ) +
str2num ( substr ( num2str ( TSIn , 0) , 4 , 8 ) )

1231
TSIPs := medsmooth ( TSIP , 31)

The sun has progressed from an active part of the sunspot cycle in 2003 to a very quiet phase
in 2008 through 2010. The net change is a decrease in TSI of 0.5 W/m2 -for an ASR of 0.1 W/m2
For more studies and conclusions on recent solar effects see
http://www.skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sunspots-global-warming.htm
3. SORCE Total Solar Irradiance-31 Day Median Fit

1363
W/m2
1362
TSIP 1361
TSIPs
1360
1359
1358
1357
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
YrDecS
Years
36
SECTION VII. Climate Cycle Analysis - Wavelets

These are Very Detailed Analyses - Goto: http://www.leapcad.com/Climate_Analysis.html
Refer to the Separate Worksheets
Climate Cycle Analysis: Solar Insolation
1. Multiresolution Wavelet Analysis
2. Adaptive Hilbert-Huang Transformation Analysis
3. Astronomical Earth Orbit Analysis
SECTION VIII. ENSO-2014 AND PDO (ENSO - The Southern Oscillation)
http://www.leapcad.com/Climate_Analysis/Empirical_Model_ENSO_Solar_VolcAero_Anthro.pdf
Multi Variate ENSO Index: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/mei.html
MV E I Data Format: Year, ENSO (Jan, Feb,...Dec)
El Nio/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon to cause
global climate variability on interannual time scales. Here we attempt to monitor ENSO by basing the
Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) on the six main observed variables over the tropical Pacific. These six variables
are: sea-level pressure (P), zonal (U) and meridional (V) components of the surface wind, sea surface
temperature (S), surface air temperature (A), and total cloudiness fraction of the sky (C).
MEIData := READPRN ( "MultiVariate ENSO Index.TXT" )

1. ENSO Index - 1950 to 2014
Standardized Departure
3
2
1
0
1
2
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Years
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDOI) Index from 1900 to 2014

Note: ENSO and PDO are not statistically independent. They have a 47% correlatio n.
http://jisao.washington.edu/data/pdo/ Year, Jan to Dec
PDO := READPRN ( "PDO_Index2014.txt" )
R := rows ( PDO)
rr := 0 .. ( R 1 ) 12 + 11
0
PDOYrrr := PDO
PDOx := submatrix ( PDO , 0 , R 1 , 1 , 12)

PDOIrr := PDOx
)floor rr + mod (12rr , 12)
12
rr
floor , mod( rr , 12) PDOPlus := ( ( PDOI) PDOI) PDOSm := ksmooth ( PDOYr , PDOI , 20
12
Departure
2. PDO Index - 1900 to 2010

4
3
2
1
0
1
2
3
4
1900
"1976 Great Climate Shift"

1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Years
37
SECTION IX. Empirical and EBD Modelling and Wavelet Analysis

1. Use ENSO, Irradiance, Volcanic Aerosols, and Anthropogenic Effects to Create an Empirical Temp Model
See http://www.leapcad.com/Climate_Analysis/Empirical_Model_ENSO_Solar_VolcAero_Anthro.pdf
Reference "Some statistical aspects of anthropogenic and natural forced global temperature change",
Schonwiese and Bayer, 199 5.
Empirical Model by Combining ENSO, Irradiance, Volcanic Aerosols, Anthropogenic Forcing Effects to
generate Multi-Variate regression coefficients of Global Temperature Anomaly data. The resultin g model has
an R2 of 0.76, i.e. it captures 76% of the variation of Global Temperature. This model is then used to make
decadal temperature projections based on predictions for these four climate variables.
Monthly mean surface temperature anomalies TMS are reconstructed as:
T MS ( t) = co + cE E t tE + cV V t tV + cS S t tS + cA A t tA
Where E, V, S and A are a AR(1) time series with optimized lags of t E = 3, t V = 6, and t S = 0 months and t A =
17 years. The lags are chosen to maximize the proportion of global variability that the statistical model captures
and are spatially invariant. The fitted coefficients are obtained by multiple linear regression against the
instrumental surface temperature record (HadCRUT3v).
Compare Anthropogenic Forcing Component - (17 Year Lag) = b4*z4 (Green) of T to Data
b4*z4 is the Optimized Match of Effects of Antro Forcing to Global Temperature Data
Anthro Component (C)
Temp Anomaly (C)
Temp Data (Red), MultiVariate Regression (Blue), b4*z4 (Green)

0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
1980
0.2
0.1
0
0.1
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
0.2
2006
Years
2. Stefan-Boltzmann Law of Radiation - Temp of Earth
11
Rorbit := 1.5 10 m
Absorption
Rsun := 7 10 m
2
T sun := 5800K
Powersun := Rearth T sun

1
Aearth := 4 Rearth
2
Rsun
Rorbit
Transmittance Stefan-Boltzmann constant

8 watt
:= 1
:= 5.6704 10
2
m K
2
17
Powersun = 1.78581 10 W
Powersun
W
= 1397.45951
1
2
m
Aearth
2
The flux of the solar radiation energy received by the Earth ~ 1370 W/m2
Emission
albedo of earth: earth := 0.7
earth Rsun
Tempearth :=
T sun Tempearth =
4 R
orbit
256.26594 K
Temp in Celcius
257 273 = 16
The earth is warmer than -16C. This actual wamer temperature (~20C) results from the Greenhouse Effect.
38
3. Simple 1D Latitudinal Energy Balance Model

Details: http://leapcad.com/Climate_Analysis/1D_Zonal_Globall_Te mper ature -Energy_ Ba lanc e_Model.xmc d
Energy flows into Earth through radiation from the Sun and out of Earth by reflection and radiation. There are
latitudinal variations. The flow of energy into Earth and the flow of energy o ut of Earth must b e equal if Earth is
to maintain a stable temperature. H0 is the extraterrestrial solar flux (w/m2). In the zonal model, we need to be
able to calculate the total energy received from the sun per unit time. This is given by R2 H0 . The average
extraterrestrial solar flux over the entire surface can by calculated by H0 /4.
Methodology:
Read NCEP surface air temperature (annual, zonal mean, deg C) and Sim Temp
TempDat := READPRN ( "NCEP_air_zonal.dat" )

TempSimToday := READPRN ( "FinalTempSim.txt" )
Read Albedo Data: Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (E RBE) 1986 - 1989
AlbedoLat := READPRN ( "Avg_Albedo_Latitude.txt" )

Daily rotation of earth reduces solar constant by distributing sun energy along a zonal band
Annual Insolation: Accumulate normalized insolation through a year
North's 1-D Effusive EBM Analytic Model (Magenta Plots)
To is the planetary, globally averaged temperature, T2 is 2/3 of the Temp difference from the poles
to equator, Tpe. The ice sheet edge (T = -10C) is above 73.74 o , with ice albedo, ice.
39
4. Wavelet Adaptive Hilbert-Huang Transformation Analysis Empirical Mode Decomposition of Temperature

http://www.leapcad.com/Climate_Analysis/EMD_HHT.xmcd
SECTION X. More Complex Models

Go to Link: http://www.leapcad.com/Climate_Analysis.html
Climate Model Papers: General Circulation

GISS ModelE (See http://www.giss.nasa.gov/tools/modelE/)
Efficient Three-D Global Model - GISS Model II
Educational GISS Model II
40
SECTION XI. Nonlinear trends and multiyear cycles in sea level records
Jevrejeva, S., Grinsted, A., Moore, J. and S. Holgate. , J. Geophys. Res., 111, C09012, 2006
Global Sea Level Reconstruction
Data http://www.pol.ac.uk/psmsl/author_archive/jevrejeva_etal_gsl/
%time, gsl_rate (mm), gsl_rate_error (mm), gsl (mm), gsl_error(mm)
Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory
U of Colorado Sea Level Research Group Sat Data
http://www.pol.ac.uk/psmsl/author_archive/church_white/ http://sealevel.colorado.edu/files/2014_rel5/sl_ns_global.txt
church_white_grl_gmsl.txt
SatSL: Sat 2014 Global Mean Sea Level Time Series
years, GMSL in millimeters, One-sigma error in millimeters.
Seasonal sign al remo ved.
Note: Data agrees with Global mean sea level from
Data Format: Years, mm
TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, and Jason-2
SeaLevel := READPRN ( "Global sea level data.txt" )
SatSL := READPRN ( "sl_ns_global.dat" )
SL_CWF := READPRN ( "church_white_gmsl.txt" )
The Proudman raw and regression data gives a
SLI := submatrix ( SeaLevel , 630 , rows ( SeaLevel) 1 , 0 , 3reference
)
level for 2007.5 of ~ 137 mm and U of Col of
0
0
36.5
mm.
Add 100 mm to U of Col data to matchup.
Time := SeaLevel
Time2 := SL_CWF
3
SL := SeaLevel
1
SL_CW := SL_CWF
1
SatSLM := SatSL + 100
0
3
AB := line SLI , SLI SLreg ( year) := AB 0 + AB 1 ( year) SLreg ( 2007.5) =
136.58959
AB 1 = 1.71045
http://www.psmsl.org/products/reconstructions/gslGPChange2014.txt
%time, gsl_rate (mm), gsl_rate_error (mm), gsl (mm), gsl_error(mm)
Jevrejeva et al 2014
SLJ := READPRN ( "gslGPChange2014.dat" )
Sea level rise (1.7 mm/year) began well before large scale CO2 emissions
However, after 1990 the rate increased to 3.2 mm/year.
Sea Level (Inches)
1. Non Linear Trend: Global Sea Level vs Time - 1800 to 2010

240
210
180
SL
150
0 120
SLreg SLI
90
60
SL_CW
30
0
SatSLM
30
60
SLJ 3
90
120
150
180
1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Time , SLI 0 , Time2 , SatSL 0 , SLJ 0

Year
Shutdown of thermohaline circulation

There is some speculation that global warming could, via a shutdown or slowdown of the thermohaline
circulation, trigger localized cooling in the North Atlantic and lead to cooling, or lesser warming, in that
region.[76] This would affect in particular areas like Scandinavia and Britain that are warmed by the North
Atlantic drift
41
Variations in sea level during the Holocene

(10,000 BC, the time since the end of the last major glacial epoch).
Adjusted for glacial isostatic motion. See "Refining the eustatic sea-level curve since the Last Glacial
Maximum using far- and intermediate-field sites", Fleming, Kevin (1998). Earth and Planetary Science Letters
163 (1-4): 327-342. "Modeling Holocene relative sea-level observations from the Caribbean and South
America", Quaternary Science Reviews 24 (10-11 ): 1183-1202, Milne
SLHol := READPRN ( "Holocene_Sea_Level.txt" )

SLHolBPr , 0 := SLHolr , 0
r := 0 .. rows ( SLHol) 1
SLHolBPr , 1 := SLHolr , 1
SLHolC := READPRN ( "Holocene_Sea_Level4.txt" )
r := 0 .. rows ( SLHolC ) 1 cc := 0 .. 1
SLHolBPCr , 0 := SLHolC r , 0 SLHolBPCr , 1 := SLHolC r , 1

0
X := SSSHol
cc := 0 .. 1
1
Y := SSSHol
w := 33
m :=
SSSHol := csort ( SLHolBPC , 0)
w1
n := rows ( Y)
i := 0 .. n 1
2 i
n 1
i+ m
Yj
Yj
Yj
j =0
j = 2 i n + 1
j = i m
mvg_avgi := if i < m ,
, if i > n 1 m ,
,
( 2 i) + 1
2n 1 2 i
w
2. Holocene Sea Level Rise - 8000 BP

4
Change in Sea Level (m)
2
0
2
4 Last Major
6 Glacial
Epoch
8
10
12
14
16
9
Thousand of Years Ago
SECTION XII. "Extracting a Climate Signal from 169 Glacier Records", J. Oerlemans, 2005
Table S2. Global mean temperature reconstructed from glacier records compared to other
temperature series. Glaciers Temp Reconstruction (Blue), Mann et al. Proxy (Red), Jones and Moberg Proxy (Green)
TempGlacier := READPRN ( "Extracting a Climate Signal from 169 Glacier Records Data.csv" )
Climate sensitivity depends in particular on the surface slope (a geometric effect) and the annual
precipitation (a mass-balance effect). Glaciers in a wetter climate are more sensitive, and this is taken
into account. Using a first-order theory of glacier dynamics, changes in glacier length were related to
changes in temperature. Here, t is time, L' is the glacier length with respect to a reference state, and T
is a temperature perturbation (annual mean) with respect to a reference state. As a result, in the
sample of 169 glaciers, c varies by a factor of 10, from ~1 to ~10 km/K. Values of vary from about 10
years for the steepest glaciers to a few hundreds of years for the largest glaciers in the sample with a
small slope (the glaciers in Svalbard). Most of the values are in the range of 40 to 100 years.
42
Glaciers Temp Reconstruction (Blue), Mann et al. Proxy (Red), Jones and Moberg Proxy (Green)
1. Glacier Global Temp Reconstruction & Ts - 1600 to 2000
Temperature (C)
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
1600
1640
1680
1720
1760
1800
1840
1880
1920
1960
2000
Years
Glacier Mass Balance and Regime: Data of Measurements and Analysis OP55_glaciers.pdf
Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado
http://instaar.colorado.edu/index.html
Appendix 3: Annual data on glacier regime - Averaged AAR calculations
Averaged annual or net mass balance calculations, pg. 79, <bn>, (mm)
ANMB := READPRN ( "Averaged annual or net mass balance calculations OP55.TXT" )
3
3
CumNMB := ANMB ANMB4 , 3 10
2. Glacier Cumulative Mass Balance, Thickness (m) - 1950 to 2000

0
Thickness (m)
2
4
6
8
10
12
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Years
3. Vostok Ice Core Data, Ratio 18O/16O (High-->Warm) ==> Continental Glacers over past 106 years
43
SECTION XIII. Project Earthshine - Measuring the Earth's Albedo

http://www.bbso.njit.edu/Research/EarthShine/
Earth's global albedo, or reflectance, is a critical component of the global climate as this
parameter, together with the solar constant, determines the amount of energy coming to Earth. Probably
because of the lack of reliable data, traditionally the Earth's albedo has been considered to be
roughly constant, or studied theoretically as a feedback mechanism in response to a change in
climate. Recently, however, several studies have shown large decadal variability in the Earths reflectance.
Variations in terrestrial reflectance derive primarily from changes in cloud amount, thickness and location,
all of which seem to have changed over decadal and longer scales.
A global and absolutely calibrated albedo can be determined by measuring the amount of sunlight
reflected from the Earth and, in turn, back to the Earth from the dark portion of the face of the Moon (the
`earthshine' or `ashen light'). For more than a decade we have been measuring the Earths large-scale
reflectance from Big Bear Solar Observatory.
"Changes in the Earth's reflectance over the past two decades" Figure 3 - Below
E. Palle, P.R. Goode, P. Montanes-Rodriguez and S.E. Koonin, Science, 304, 1299-1301, 2004a
http://bbso.njit.edu/Research/EarthShine/literature/Palle_etal_2004_Science.pdf
1. Figure 3 - Reconstructed annual reflectance anomalies 1984 to 2000

Reconstructed annual reflectance anomalies, p* (black), with respect to the mean anomaly for the
regression calibration period 19992001 (vertical gray band). The large error bars result from the seasonal
variability of Earths albedo, which can be 15 to 20%. Also plotted (blue) are the Earth Shine,
ES, -observed annual anomalies for 19992003 and 19941995. The right hand vertical scale shows the
deficit in global lSW forcing relative to 19992001.
The decrease in Earths reflectance from 1984 to 2000 suggested by ISCCP data in the Graph
corresponds to a change in p* of some 0.02, which translates into a decrease of the Bond albedo by 0.02
(p*/p* = A/A) and an additional SW absorption, R, of 6.8 W/m2 (R = A x C/4, where C = 1368 W/m2
is the solar constant). This is climatologically very significant. For example, the latest IPCC report argues
for a 2.4 W/m2 increase in CO2 longwave forcing since 1850. Our observational ES data extend from
1999 to 2003 and indicate a clear reversal of the ISCCP-derived reflectance trend starting in 1999 up
through 2003. The increasing trend in reflectance corresponds to approximately 5 W/m2, bringing the mean
reflectance anomaly back to its 1980s values. Only the ES data are currently available to signal this reversal;
it will be interesting to see how the proxy behaves when ISCCP data ar e available beyond mid-2001.
These results are difficult to attribute to monotonically increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases.
44
SECTION XIV. Snow Coverage in the Northern Hemisphere

Snow cover, the whitest natural surface on the planet, reflects roughly 90 percent of the sunlight that
reaches it. Snow-free ground absorbs anywhere from four to six times more solar radiation than
snow-covered Earth.Though some snow cover occurs in the Southern Hemisphere or on Northern
Hemisphere sea ice, nearly all of the Earths seasonal snow cover happens over land in the Northern
Hemisphere.
Changes over time

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/2013-state-climate-snow-northern-hemisphere
From 1970 - Climate.gov
Rutgers Snow Coverage Data - From 1965

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/table_area.php?ui_set=1&ui_sort=0
Million sq. km
Row
Year
Month N. Hemisphere Eurasia N. America
N. America (no Greenland)
2
1 Snow 1
Yr_snow := Snow +
Snow := READPRN ( "gsl snow data.dat" )

12
3
LSnow := line Yr_snow , Snow
Lin Yrsnow := LSnow0 + LSnow1 Yrsnow
Lin ( 2014) Lin ( 1965)
PerCentSnowDecrease :=
100
PerCentSnowDecrease = 13.69749
Lin ( 1965)
Rutgers Northern Hemispere Snow Coverage Data and Linear Fit (Solid Black)- 1965 to 2015
Snow Coverage (Millin sq. km)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
45
SECTION XV. 70 Year Warming Cycles

1. Analysis: Statistics of Climate Change - Temp Rise is Non Monotonic - 70 Year Cycles
Ref: "ABRUPT GLOBAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE AND THE INSTRUMENTAL REC ORD," Men ne
Use GISS Global Temp Data: "GISS NASA Global Temp Mean Fig2A.TXT" from Above
Break into Four 35 Year Periods: 1880 to 1910, 1911 to 1945, 1946 to 1980 and 1981 to 2010
Uses Analysis from:
http://www.leapcad.com/Climate_Analysis/Cycles_and_Trends_Average_Temp.xmcd
Note: Temperature Plateaus and then Climbs in 70 Year Cycles

T abrupt := READPRN ( "GAbrupt.txt" )
1. Analysis: Abrupt NOAA Global Annual Mean Temperature in 70 Year Cycles

0.9
1945
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Year
Correlation Coefficient and t Test:

1
corr GTemp0 0.01 , T abrupt = 0.94048
t Test:
t := 0.98622 0.23434
Stdev T abrupt = 0.23426
= 4.2085 These 70 year cycles are statistically significant
SECTION XVI. Cryosphere -Sea Ice Extent -North & South Hemispheres
National Snow and Ice Data Center - North Year Month Day Extent (Millions sq km) Decimal Yr
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/ /south/daily/data/SH_seaice_extent_final.csv
4
3
SeaIce := READPRN ( "Sea_ice_extent_final_North.TXT" ) SeaIceNS := ksmooth SeaIce , SeaIce , 30
WRITEPRN ( "SeaIceAreaSSmooth.txt" ) := SeaIceNSSeaIceSmooth := READPRN ( "SeaIceAreaSmooth.txt" )

4
3
SeaIceSouth := READPRN ( "SH_seaice_extent_final.txt"SeaIceSS
)
:= ksmooth SeaIceSouth , SeaIceSouth , 30
WRITEPRN ( "SeaIceAreaSSmooth.txt" ) := SeaIceSS SeaIceSSmooth := READPRN ( "SeaIceAreaSSmooth.txt"
Extent
Sea Ice Extent North Hemisphere (Millions sq km) - Decreasing

16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
46
Sea Ice Extent South Hemisphere (Millions sq km) - Increasing
Extent
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Calculate the Net Change: NetSeaIce :=
SeaIceSSmooth + SeaIceSmooth
SeaIceSSmooth0 + SeaIceSmooth0
100
2.5% Global Extent of Sea Ice Loss since 1980

2.5% Loss of Global Sea Ice Extent Since 1980
Net Global Extent
100
99.5
99
98.5
98
97.5
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Testing the Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Global Warming Model

Looking for Unique Fingerprints of AGW
SECTION XVII. Testing the Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Model
Test #1. AGW Assumes/Predicts that Relative Humidity (RH) is a constant
The RH data supports this.
General Circulation Climate Models assume that RH is constant. The RH data shows this is false.
Evidence Reveals that Relative Humidity has been decreasing as CO2 has been rising
Data: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl
0
RH700 := READPRN ( "ESRL-NOAA-RH-GlobalAnnual700mb-1948-2010.txt"Years
)
:= RH700
RH500 := READPRN ( "ESRL-NOAA-RH-GlobalAnnual500mb-1948-2010.txt" )
RH300 := READPRN ( "ESRL-NOAA-RH-GlobalAnnual300mb-1948-2010.txt" )
SH700 := READPRN ( "ESRL-NOAA-SH-GlobalAnnual700mb-1948-2010.txt" )
47
Higher Surface Levels (Decreasing Pressure): 700 Red, 500 Blue, and 300 Green mb
Annual Global Relative Humidity Decreasing vs. Years
Relative Humidity (%)
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Years
Annual Global Specific Humidity @700 mb Decreasing vs. Years

Specific Humidity (gr/kg)
3.3
Specific Humidity (gram of water vapor/kg of air)
3.2
3.1
3
2.9
2.8
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Years
Annual Global Specific Humidity @500 mb Decreasing vs. Years

Specific Humidity (gr/kg)
1.25
1.2
1.15
1.1
1.05
1
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Years
48
Test 2. This Model is Interesting, but Flawed: Miskolczi Saturated Humidity Model:
Total infrared optical depth is constant ~1.87
Ferenc M. Miskolczi, "Greenhouse effect in semi-transparent planetary atmospheres", Quarterly Journal
of the Hungarian Meteorological Journal,Vol. 111, No. 1, January - March 2007
There have been a number of recent peer reviewed papers that have documented this anomaly.
The Miskolczi Model Asserts: The cumulative greenhouse effect of all atmospheric greenhouse gases
has not been changed, that is, the atmospheric TIOD is constant.
Rebuttal to the Saturation Arguement: A Saturated Gassy Argument

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/06/a-saturated-gassy-argument/
What happens to infrared radiation emitted by the Earths surface? As it moves up layer by layer through the
atmosphere, some is stopped in each layer. To be specific: a molecule of carbon dioxide, water vapor or some
other greenhouse gas absorbs a bit of energy from the radiation. The molecule may radiate the energy back out
again in a random direction. Or it may transfer the energy into velocity in collisions with other air molecules, so
that the layer of air where it sits gets warmer. The layer of air radiates some of the energy it has absorbed back
toward the ground, and some upwards to higher layers. As you go higher, the atmosphere gets thinner and colder.
Eventually the energy reaches a layer so thin that radiation can escape into space.
What happens if we add more carbon dioxide? In the layers so high and thin that much of the heat radiation
from lower down slips through, adding more greenhouse gas molecules means the layer will absorb more of the
rays. So the place from which most of the heat energy finally leaves the Earth will shift to higher layers.
Those are colder layers, so they do not radiate heat as well. The planet as a whole is now taking in more
energy than it radiates (which is in fact our current situation). As the higher levels radiate some of the excess
downwards, all the lower levels down to the surface warm up. The imbalance must continue until the high levels
get hot enough to radiate as much energy back out as the planet is receiving.
Test #3.
AGW (GH Effect) requires the lower and mid troposphere to be warmer than the surface.
Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change
Panel on Reconciling Temperature Observations, National Research Council, 2000
FINDINGS - 21
Based on current estimates, the lower to mid-troposphere has warmed less than the
earth's surface during the past 20 years. For the time period from 1979 to 1998, it is estimated
that on average, over the globe, surface temperature has increased by 0.25 to 0.4 C and lower to
mid-tropospheric temperature has increased by 0.0 to 0.2 C.
49
Test #4: AGW (GH Effect) requires the stratosphere to cool

Stratosphere Data: http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t4/uahncdc_ls_5.6.txt
Year Mo Globe Land Ocean NH Land Ocean SH Land Ocean Trpcs Land Ocean NoExt Land
StratTemp := READPRN ( "LowStrat - uahncdc_ls_5.6.dat" )
2
SmoothGlobe := medsmooth StratTemp , 11
1
0 StratTemp 1
Yearstrat := StratTemp +
12
11
, 11
SmoothTropics := medsmooth StratTemp
Stratospheric Cooling
2
1.75
1.5
1.25
1
0.75
SmoothGlobe
SmoothTropics
0.5
0.25
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Yearstrat
SECTION XVIII. Model Predictions for Tropical Atmospheric Warming

http://www.climatechange.gov.au/en/climate-change/science.aspx
http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/Spencer_EPW_Written_Testimony_7_18_2013_updated.pdf
50
SECTION XIX. Extreme Weather Getting Worse (NOAA Data)?

Decadal to Century Scale Trends in North American Snow Extent in Coupled A tmosp here-Ocean General Circulation
Models - Columbia University, Geophysical Research Letters, 32:L18502, doi: 10.1029/2005GL023394.
http://www.eee.columbia.edu/research-projects/water_resources/climate-change-snow-cover/index.html
Continental-scale snow cover extent (SCE) is a potentially sensitive indicator of climate change, since it is an
integrated measure of multiple hydroclimatological processes , and it is the most prominent seasonal landsurface
feature in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere. Conversely, feedback processes may cause SCE changes to in turn affect
the direction and magnitude of other climate changes across the globe. In this study, current and future decadal trends in winter
North American SCE (NA-SCE) are investigated, using nine general circulation models (GCMs) of the global
atmosphere-ocean system participating in the upcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report
(IPCC-AR4).
Simulated annual time series of January NA-SCE spanning the 20th and 21st centuries are shown for all nine
models in figure 1, based on a set of current and hypothesized future socioeconomic developments with associated greenhouse gas
emissions, designated the 20C3M and SRESA1B scenarios, respectively. This exemplifies the considerable uncertainties that still
plague GCM simulations. Nevertheless, all nine models exhibit a clear and statistically significant decreasing trend in 21st century
NA-SCE, although the magnitude of the trend varies between models.
1. Simulated annual time series of January NA-Continental Scale Snow Coverage - 1850 to present
Rutgers Snow Lab: http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/files/moncov.nhland.txt
Snow := READPRN ( "moncov.nhland.txt" )
S := SJan ( Snow)
1
1
1
S := S mean S
0 1
L := line S , S
( )
1
1
1
Sw := Sw mean ( Sw )
Sw := SWin ( Snow)
0
1
Lw := line S , Sw
Is slope of trend increasing(+) or decreasing (-)?
0
Fit := L0 + L1 S
L1 = 0.00198
0
Fitw := Lw0 + Lw1 S
Lw1 = 0.0118
2. North Hemisphere Snow Cover Anomalies (December & January). Trend Line (Blue)
3
Million Squasre km
2
1
Sw 1 0
1
Fitw
2
3
4
5
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
S0
Years
51
3. US Percentage Area Very Warm, Very Cold
Red - Very Warm

Blue - Very Cold
4. USDA Economic Research Service: Worst Droughts 1930s
Amber Waves: US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, May 2007

52
5. NOAA: Rainfall/Wetness Data
6. Lessoning Predicted Impact of Global Warming on Sea Level Rise by 2100

Trend of PCC Predictions: Sea Level Rise by 2100
Al Gore's 'An Inconvenient Truth' 2006 240 inches
IPCC 'Scientific Assessment'
6 to 34 inches
2001
IPCC 'Summary for Policymakers' 2007
6 to 23 inches
IPCC 'Scientific Assessment'
6 to 17 inches
2007
Over the 20th Century (Natural Causes), sea-levels globally have risen about
6 to 8 inches
7. Hurricane Frequency - Getting Worse? No.

For Analysis See: http://www.leapcad.com/Climate_Analysis/Hurricane_Frequency.pdf
Plot Number: Hurricanes (Blue), Hurricanes with Landfalls (Black) and Cat 3 Hurricanes (Red)
Number Hurricanes, Land Falls, & Cat 3s
Number of Storms per 5 Yr Intervals
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Years
53
APPENDIX
AI. Types of GISS NASA Data Sources and New versus Old Differences:
GISTEMP Indices
Land-Ocean Temperature index (LOTI, i.e. the index that includes weather station data and sea surface
temperature data to give a global anomaly index with wide spatial coverage) (GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
Met station index, which only uses weather station data (GLB.Ts.txt) which doesnt have as much coverage and
has a substantially larger trend reflecting the relative predominance of faster-warming co ntinental data in the
average.
Old versus New differences are tiny, and mostly reflect slightly more data in the earlier years in the latest data and
the different homogenisation in GHCN v3 compared to GHCN v2 (which was used up to Dec 2011). The the biggest
difference in trend (between 2006 and today), is a mere 0.05C/Century, and from 2008 to 2012 it is only
0.003C/Century.
54

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Review of Climate Fundamentals

Proxies and Reconstructions of Temperature and CO 2 (ppm), Instrumental

An assesment of the Evidence for Anthropomorphic Climate Change:

Graphic Ilustrations for Greenhouse Effect

Energy Balance Intensities (Power Density)

Review of Climate Fundamentals

SECTION III-C. Fossil Fuel Energy

SECTION VI. Milankovitch Astronomically Forced Glacial Insolation Cycles

Climate Model Papers: General Circulation Models (GCM)

SECTION XIII. Project Earthshine - Measuring the Earth's Albedo

2.5% Loss of Global Sea Ice Extent since 1980

SECTION XVII. Finding the Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas (CO2) Fingerprint

SECTION XIX. Is Extreme Climate (> 30 Years) Getting Worse?

A. EVALUATION OF EVIDENCE - CONCLUSIONS:

POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS TO GLOBAL WARMING

SECTION 0. Earliest Climate Records: Billion and Million Year Cycles

Era - a long period of time (intervals of hundreds of millions of years)

Today we are in the Cenozoic Era /Quaternary Period /Holocene Epoch

TempVostok := READPRN ( "vostok.1999.temp.txt"CO2Vostok

CO2 Concentration (ppm) - Black

Max: 3.23C at 128,356 YBP

Years Before Present

2-2. Vostok Antartica CO2 Concentration

Temp Anomaly (C) - Blue

Years Before Present

2.2-3. Vostok Antartica Temperature

Years Before Present

3. The Present Holocene Interglacial with 1500 Year Warming/Cooling Cycles

Holocene Climate Maximum

TempPaleo := READPRN ( "Paleo Temp Keigwin 1996.TXT" )

TSmooth := ksmooth ( Years , Temp , 200)

WRITEPRN ( "TSmooth.txt" ) := TSmooth

TSmooth := READPRN ( "TSmooth.txt" )

Loelhe := READPRN ( "LoehleE&E2007.csv" )

"Loehle, E&E Nov. 2007", calendar date,dev. deg C

Temperature Anomaly (C)

6. Millennial (Yrs 1000 to 2000) temperature reconstruction intercomparison and evaluation

Reconstructions; Name Date-Column (Color)

BerkTemp := READPRN ( "BerkTemp2.txt" )

BerkTempS := ksmooth ( BkYr1800 , BerkTemp1800

Mann Hockey Puck Curve (Rose Color)

Temperature Anomaly (C)

TempMill7 := READPRN ( "Temp 7 Reconstructions-briffa.txt" )

7. Millenial Temperature Anomaly Reconstructions (5)

Little Ice Age

8. Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and

NHTC := READPRN ( "Highly variable NH temps reconstructed-Moberg.TXT" )

Temperature Anomaly (C)

Little Ice Age

T LMillenial := READPRN ( "Temp NH 1 to 2000AD Ljungquist2010.txt" )

TLSmooth := ksmooth T LMillenial

Temperature Anomaly (C)

Warming trend started

BerkT := READPRN ( "BerkTemp2.txt"

GHCN2 := READPRN ( "GHCN Temp Anomally 1880 - 2014.txt"

Temp Anomaly (C)

2. NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis - US and Zonal 1880 - 2014

Note: On the 2008 scale the warmest year in US was 1934

Temperature Anomaly (C)

Yr , Month, TempAnom&Unc: 1Yr, 5 Yr, 10Yr, 20 Yr