FOR PRIVATE CIRCULATION ONLY

23 January 2015
Domestic Futures

Highlights
Domestic cotton and kapas futures
continued with the downward trajectory
and traded near multiyear lows
MCX cotton February closed 1.4% lower and
witnessed accumulation of short position
while NCDEX Kapas contract closed 1.9%
down and witnessed liquidation of long
positions
All India cotton arrivals eased to 1.85 lakh
bales as compared to 1.88 lakh bales in
previous session
The procurement of cotton by the state run
Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has
crossed 5 million bales (170kg each), during
the ongoing season October 2014September 2015
Hand to mouth buying interest featured
from north Indian traders while activity
across rest of the nation remain subdued
ICE cotton futures fell sharply to trade near
51/2 year lows

Contract
MCX: Cotton
30-Jan-15
27-Feb-15
31-Mar-15
NCDEX : Kapas
30-Apr-15

High
Low
Close
Price Quote per bales (170 kg)
14320
14410
14110
14160
14520
14620
14330
14360
14790
14840
14530
14560

748

Price Quote per Maund (20 kg)

750
732
733

Change in Volume in
%
Lots

OI in lots

Change in
OI

-200
-210
-210

-1.4%
-1.4%
-1.4%

1351
1448
816

22-Jan-15
3071
-627
3942
196
3576
158

-14.0

-1.9%

0
9347

0
14318

0
-1218

Spot Markets
Spot
Kapas S-6 (Ahmd)
ICS 105 (CAI)
Cotlook A Index Forward
Total Arrival

Current
810
29,900
66.00
185,000

W. Afr. at Mill in south

ICS 105 at mill in south

32275
32130

Previous
820
30000
65.85
188,000

Change
-10
-100
0.15
-3000

Unit
per 20 Kg
per candy
cents per lb
Bales

18
-102

per Candy
per Candy

Import Parity
32257
32232

* W. African comes close to ICS 105 variety in Maharashtra 28 mm, 3.5-4.9 mic

Export Parity
Spot - Rajkot
Currency Rate
MCX
ACE

per candy
(356Kg)
30514
30360

per bale
(170 KG)
14600
14526

In Yuan
6.2085
15025
14956

In USD
61.59
65.2
64.9

Previous
38,900
-

change
300
-

* Price in Yuan is all costs incl delivered in a China mill; price in USD is FOB

Stocks In Bales
Commodity
MCX(19 Jan) physical
ACE (19 Nov) demat

Current
39,200
-

In Process
12,200
-

International Futures
Contract

Outlook Indian Futures:

Price
Change

Open

Open

High

Low

Close

Change

ICE Cotton USA

Mar-15
58.00
Cotton and kapas prices have declined
sharply in past few sessions and hence a
May-15
58.86
round of profit booking cannot be ruled out.
Jul-15
59.79
For the session we expect the prices to
ZCE Cotton China
trade with negative bias. The NCDEX Kapas
Nov-14
12970
April 2015 is expected to seek support near
Jan-15
13025
720-722 while resistance is seen near
Rs.750-755. February contract on MCX
could seek support near 14000-14050 per
bale while resistance is seen near Rs.1460014620.
Cotton Daily
Please See Disclaimer on the Last Page

% chg

22-Jan-15

58.40

57.58

57.76

59.19

58.41

58.65

60.03

59.35

59.58

-0.25
-0.23
-0.24

12970

12960

12885

75

13095

12990

13015

30

-0.43%
-0.39%
-0.40%

22-Jan-15

0.59%
0.23%

Domestic Market:
Domestic cotton prices across the major trading centers continued to trade more of less steady. Demand from mills,
traders and exporters were reported to be steady. Bulk buyers and large mills are not purchasing currently and
awaiting some clear direction with regards to CCI e-Auction.
Cotton arrivals in the domestic markets eased marginally to 185,000 bales on Thursday compared to 188,000 bales on
previous session. Supplies in North were estimated tad up at 7,000 bales against 6,000 bales on Wednesday. Gujarat
has received cotton of 50,000 bales against 58,000 on previous session. Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh
contributed 68,000 bales, down from 63,000 bales from Wednesday and arrivals in south India were reported at
60,000 bales from 61,000 bales on previous session.
According to traders, the procurement of cotton by the state run Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has crossed 5
million bales (170kg each), during the ongoing season October 2014-September 2015,. CCI through market
intervention scheme has procured around 51.6 lakh bales of cotton in the country this season. CCI is actively
purchasing cotton in states where the market price has fallen below the minimum support price announced by the
government. The agency made record purchase of 8.9 million bales in 2008-2009.

Global Markets:

ICE cotton fell to its lowest level in nearly 5-1/2 years on Thursday, pressured by gains in the U.S. dollar and investor
selling in response to multiple contract lows hit in recent sessions. The most-active front-month March cotton
contract on ICE Futures U.S. fell 0.25 cent, or 0.4%, to settle at 57.76 cents a lb, after earlier falling to 57.58 cents a lb,
its lowest level since September 4, 2009.

Cotton Daily

Please See Disclaimer on the Last Page

Fundamental Team
Faiyaz Hudani Asst. Vice President

Oilseeds, Grains & Cotton

faiyaz.hudani@kotakcommodities.com

Sudha Acharya - Sr. Research Analyst

Sugar, Chana & Spices

sudha.acharya@kotakcommodities.com

Madhavi Mehta- Sr. Research Analyst

Bullion & Energy

madhavi.mehta@kotakcommodities.com

Priyanka Jhaveri- Sr. Research Analyst

Base Metals

priyanka.jhaveri@kotakcommodities.com

Technical Team
Dharmesh Bhatia Deputy Vice President

dharmesh.bhatia@kotakcommodities.com

Tapan Patel - Sr. Research Analyst

tapan.patel@kotakcommodities.com

Shabbir Kayyumi Research Analyst

shabbir.kayyumi@kotakcommodities.com

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