Terrorism: A Threat To Foreign Direct Investment

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b u s i n e s s
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Terrorism: A Threat
to Foreign Direct Investment
By Subhayu Bandyopadhyay and Javed Younas
thinkstock
errorism around the world is a problem

for foreign direct investment (FDI). For
example, a multinational corporation based
in the U.S. may find a location in India to
be attractive for setting up a plant because
of the abundance of cheap and well-trained
labor there. However, if that area is also a
potential location for insurgency and terrorism, the multinational will have to weigh
the benefits from lower wage costs against
the possibility of loss of plant, manpower
to quantify the effect of terrorism on FDI.

Their study investigated how transnational
terrorism had affected FDI flows into Spain
and Greece.2 Using net annual foreign direct
investment (NFDI) data from the mid-1970s
through 1991, they found that terrorist incidents reduced NFDI in Spain by 13.5 percent
and in Greece by 11.9 percent. The authors
noted that these reductions amounted to
7.6 percent and 34.8 percent of annual gross
fixed capital formation for Spain and Greece,
Many of the terrorism-afflicted nations are poor and lack vital

resources that can be used for counterterrorism. This problem
can be partly alleviated by foreign aid.
and equipment from terrorist attacks. On
aggregate, a higher incidence of terrorism
(as perceived by potential investors) will
tend to reduce their willingness to invest in
a terrorism-infested area.1
Let us consider the case of Colombia,
which was notorious for drug violence and
terrorism in the 1980s and 1990s. In more
recent years, Colombia has seen significant
declines on these fronts. The figure shows
that as terrorism has fallen, FDI has risen.
Without careful analysis, we cannot suggest this apparent relationship as causal;
however, a link is possible. Fortunately,
the literature in this area includes careful
studies on the link between terrorism and
FDI, studies that have employed rigorous
economic theory and econometric methods.
The rest of this article provides a sample of
this research.
Impact in Spain, Greece
A 1996 study by economists Walter

Enders and Todd Sandler is one of the first
10 The Regional Economist | October 2014
respectively. Clearly, this means that terrorism had a major negative effect on capital
formation in these nations and, in turn, on
their potential for economic growth.
Impact on FDI from the U.S.
A large number of transnational terrorist

attacks on the U.S. are conducted against
U.S. interests in foreign nations. This is
likely to raise the risks for U.S. corporations doing business abroad. In a 2006
study, Enders, Sandler and fellow economist
Adolfo Sachsida investigated how terrorism in other nations may have affected
FDI from the U.S. into these nations. They
found that terrorist attacks lowered U.S.
FDI by 1 percent in nations that belong to
the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) but had
no statistically significant effect in nonOECD nations. Greece and Turkey (OECD
members) suffered relatively large damages,
amounting to U.S. FDI reductions of
5.7 percent and 6.5 percent, respectively.
Diversion of FDI
Some studies have argued that terrorist

attacks usually destroy only a small fraction
of the capital stock of a nation and, therefore, are unlikely to cause major economic
damage. A 2008 study by economists
Alberto Abadie and Javier Gardeazabal
found otherwise. They showed that even
when the direct damage to a nations capital
stock is not large, the eventual, overall
impact may be large because, for example,
fearful foreign investors divert their money
to other nations. This diversion can result in
a large loss of investment. Using a crosssectional study, the economists found that
a one-standard-deviation increase in the
intensity of terrorism in a particular nation
can reduce the net FDI position of that
nation by approximately 5 percent of its
GDP, a large impact.
Threat to Developing Nations
FDI is considered to be a major source of

foreign capital and technology to support
economic growth in developing countries.
If terrorism reduces FDI flows into these
nations, their growth and development
can be stymied. This poses a challenge
for economists who provide policy advice
to international donor agencies like U.S.
Agency for International Development and
the World Bank.
In their 2014 study on this issue, economists Subhayu Bandyopadhyay, Javed
Younas and the aforementioned Sandler
focused on 78 developing countries over the
period 1984-2008. The authors found that
both domestic and transnational terrorism
significantly depressed FDI in developing countries. A one-standard-deviation
increase in domestic terrorist incidents per
ENDNOTES
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Terrorism in Colombia
6
Terrorism incidents (hundreds)
FDI as % of GDP
FDI, Terrorism
5
4
3
2
1
0
1988-1993
1994-1999
2000-2005
2006-2011
NOTE: Data are averaged over six-year nonoverlapping periods from 1988 to 2011, which gives us four time periods. Terrorism incidents include domestic,
transnational and other acts of terrorism that cannot be unambiguously assigned to either of these two categories.
SOURCES: FDI-World Development Indicators (2013); Terrorism-Global Terrorism Database, University of Maryland, College Park.
100,000 people reduced net FDI between

approximately $324 million and $513 million for the average sample country, whose
GDP totaled $70 billion. A one-standarddeviation increase in transnational terrorist
incidents per 100,000 people reduced net
FDI between approximately $296 million
and $736 million at the same level of GDP.
The loss of FDI, however, was much smaller
when it was calculated at the median value
of GDP ($10.4 billion) in the sample.
Many of the terrorism-afflicted nations
are poor and lack vital resources that can be
used for counterterrorism. This problem can
be partly alleviated by foreign aid. Bandyopadhyay et al. found in their study earlier
this year that foreign aid can help in this
regard and that the evidence suggests significant terror-mitigating effects on FDI.
For example, the aforementioned lower
estimate of FDI loss from domestic terrorism of $324 million is reduced to about
$113 million for the average aid-receiving
nation, while the lower estimate for transnational terrorism is reduced to about
$45 million from $296 million.3
efforts targeted at reducing terrorism can

provide substantial economic benefits to the
terrorism-afflicted nations.
The literature also points to the important role that foreign aid may play in terms
of containing terrorism and boosting the
growth potential of developing nations. The
literature on foreign aid has increasingly
focused on security concerns rather than
on a recipient nations economic need as a
motive behind giving foreign aid.4 Along
similar lines, the aforementioned 2014
study by Bandyopadhyay et al. suggests that
foreign aid may be motivated by, among
other things, substantial economic benefits
in terms of greater FDI flows to nations with
reduced terrorism.
1 Among others, a 2008 paper by economists Abadie

and Gardeazabal shows that a greater intensity
of terrorism increases the variance of the return
to investment while reducing its mean. Clearly,
a lower average rate of return to investment in a
nation will tend to reduce potential FDI into that
nation.
2 When a terrorist incident in a certain country
involves citizens or property of another country, it
is considered to be transnational terrorism.
3 The Bandyopadhyay et al. analysis presents a
theoretical model in which aggregate aid has
unconditional aid and aid tied to counterterrorism
as its two components. The theoretical analysis
shows that tied aid can reduce the adverse effect
of terrorism on FDI. The econometric analysis
motivated by this model finds significant benefits
of foreign aid in terms of reducing the damages to
FDI from terrorism.
4 For details on security concerns as a donor
motive, see the 2013 study by Bandyopadhyay
and Vermann.
R e f eren c e S
Abadie, Alberto; and Gardeazabal, Javier. Terrorism
and the World Economy, European Economic
Review, January 2008, Vol. 52, No. 1, pp. 1-27.
Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu; Sandler, Todd; and
Younas, Javed. Foreign Direct Investment,
Aid, and Terrorism, Oxford Economic Papers,
January 2014, Vol. 66, No.1, pp. 25-50.
Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu; Vermann, E. Katarina.
Donor Motives for Foreign Aid, Federal Reserve
Bank of St. Louis Review, July/August 2013,
Vol. 95, No. 4, pp. 327-36.
Enders, Walter; Sachsida, Adolfo; and Sandler, Todd.
The Impact of Transnational Terrorism on U.S.
Foreign Direct Investment, Political Research
Quarterly, December 2006, Vol. 59, No. 4,
pp. 517-31.
Enders, Walter; and Sandler, Todd. Terrorism and
Foreign Direct Investment in Spain and Greece,
Kyklos, August 1996, Vol. 49, No. 3, pp. 331-52.
Subhayu Bandyopadhyay is an economist at the

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, and Javed
Younas is an associate professor of economics at
American University of Sharjah, United Arab
Emirates. For more on Bandyopadhyays work,
see http://research.stlouisfed.org/econ/bandyopadhyay.
As the World Shrinks
In an integrated global economy, terrorism presents policy challenges both at

home and abroad. The July 2014 downing
over Ukraine of a Malaysian jet carrying
Dutch passengers (for the most part) was a
stark reminder of this interconnectedness.
Accordingly, U.S. policymakers involved
with counterterrorism remain vigilant
about terrorism in the U.S. and abroad.
By focusing on the existing literature on
FDI and terrorism, we can see that policy
The Regional Economist | www.stlouisfed.org 11

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d o i n g

errorism around the world is a problem

to quantify the effect of terrorism on FDI.

Many of the terrorism-afflicted nations are poor and lack vital

A 1996 study by economists Walter

A large number of transnational terrorist

Some studies have argued that terrorist

FDI is considered to be a major source of

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Terrorism in Colombia

100,000 people reduced net FDI between

efforts targeted at reducing terrorism can

1 Among others, a 2008 paper by economists Abadie

Subhayu Bandyopadhyay is an economist at the

As the World Shrinks

In an integrated global economy, terrorism presents policy challenges both at

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