AER 818 LM - 3 - 15 - S

Project Requirements
Work in teams of 4 to 6 students to develop a robotic riveting facility in a company for

manufacturing leading edges of an aircraft with the goal of increasing productivity. Your
company is a supplier of leading edges to tier I aircraft manufacturers. In addition to the
class presentation, each team is required to submit, in week 12, a final typed report
containing the following sections:
1. Introduction: Analysis of the market for a specific region; aircraft demand in the
region by category; ten-year outlook for leading edges.
2. Forecast the number of leading edges needed (Presentation 1, Jan 30): Use
compound equation and region growth rate to forecast the leading edges needed
each year for the next ten years.
3. Project Management (Presentation 2, Feb 13): Statement of work, work breakdown
structure, project schedule (Gantt chart), milestones, budget, Program Evaluation
Review Technique (PERT or CPM) analysis, tendering robotic riveter cell.
4. Capacity Planning Number of Robots (Presentation 3, Mar 6): Manual vs. robotic
riveting, number of rivets, riveting rate, production rate increase, number of robots
needed to meet production increase, capital cost, payback plan, number of years
allowed for ramp up.
5. Layout Design (Presentation 4, Mar 20): Assembly process, operation process chart
(assembly tree), assembly process development, flow process chart, layout design
of robotic cell, alternative cell design to show improvement.
6. Conclusion and Recommendations (Final presentation, March 27).
7. References.
1/23/2015
AER 818/ Prof. C. Poon
Project /Lab Groups

Group
Student Name
Vibhor Chabra
Lucy Davidson
Sabrina Gomez
Gianni Monardo
Sukhvir Dhaliwal
Adrian Strupp
Ajandan Bagawan
Cheng Lian
Muhammad Iqbal
Santiago Galvis
MehmetTekin
AhmadKalaji
ZaidMorad
KennyKarthigesu
Arsalan Siddiqui
Ninab Alwarda
Zehan Sadiq
Deni Dzoja
JacobJohn
JamesAhn
JayShah
Group
Student Name
Shivang Patel
IlionIljazi
RichardSukhdeo
Ziad ElShaboury
Kody Baum
VitoPansera
ConstantinNicolinco
DerekStanley
PowersAlexanderYamich
AlexBellini
Pavlo Kusov
Muhamudar Kalam
JasperLiu
HarryMingZhang
MichaelChow
StevenSiu
SamTam
Deepinderpal SinghUjial
Bizhan Feda
Hariram Sujanthan
Macquin Brown
MarilynShirleyLouis
Group
Student Name
Brent Miller
Chris Singh
Romeo Isaacs
Yit Teng Seow
Amer Choudhury
Gajarupan
Saravanapavananthan
Saptarshi Datta
Quazi Faisal
Santhosh Inigo
Fizra Arif
Huner Sharma
Each project group will have 10 minutes to present results. Note: Total project = 20% of course grade; each
presentation will worth 5% of the 20%.
1/20/2015
2
Project Presentations
1. Vision, mission, strategy, business plan (forecast: # of leading edges for your
selected regions and types of aircraft SWOT analysis Presentation 1.
2. Project management, objectives, SOW, WBS, preliminary implementation plan
(Gantt Chart)), PERT or CPM, resources, budget Presentation 2.
3. Capacity planning, robotic cell design (planning) Presentation 3.
For given constraints, determine:
Capital + maintenance budget (% of operating) (one time)
Operating (labor cost using the current year)
Workers (current all manual, semi-automated, or fully automated - training)
Determine # of robots and # of staff to keep up with the production rate
increase (using the same growth rate) for the next 10 years. (payout plan
break even)
4. System layout design (robot, jig, assembly process, operation process chart
(assembly tree), flow process chart, plant layout design of robotic cell,
alternative cell design to show improvement.) Presentation 4.
5. Final presentation (report: company information, business plan, capacity
planning, layout design, final implementation plan (Gantt Chart)), conclusion
and recommendation.
1/23/2015
AER 818: Manufacturing Management

LM_3: Project Management
Project Management Overview
Why project managers are needed?
Common project structures
Essential features of project management
Statement of Work and Work Breakdown Structures

Project Management Techniques
Gantt chart
Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) and
Critical Path Method (CPM)
Managing Resources and Tracking Progress

1/23/2015
Why Project Managers are Needed?
Most organizations spend their time putting out fires and pursuing projects
aimed at catching up to their competitors leading to too many projects
going at once and all too often seriously over commit development resources.
Completing projects successfully on time and within budget requires project

managers to exercise careful control of critical resources; the key resource is
often the time of employees.
Project managers (PM) are not only skilled at the technical aspects, just as
important, they must possess the people skills related to motivation, conflicts
resolution, negotiation, and salesmanship.
Project work is team work and leading and/or managing a project involves
leading a team; therefore it is vital for successful project managers to possess
leadership skills.
In summary, project managers perform the management functions in

planning, scheduling, and controlling resources (people, equipment, material)
to meet technical, cost and time constraints of projects.
1/23/2015
Common Project Structures

Functional Projects
A critical mass of functional-area
experts creates synergistic solutions
to different projects problems.
Problems not related to functional
area get shortchanged leading poor
response to certain clients.
Matrix Projects
Each project uses people and facility
from different functional areas as
decided by PM who has to negotiate
with functional area managers for
use of resources.
Duplication of resources is
minimized; employees have better
job security since they have a
functional home.
Two bosses, PM needs to have
strong negotiation skills to get
resources from functional area
managers.
From: Operations Management for Competitive Advantage, 11th Edition, Chase, Jacobs & Aquilano, 2006
1/23/2015
Functions of Project Managers

;Planning setting objectives, defining the project,
creating work breakdown structures (WBS),
determining resources, organizing team.
;Scheduling sequencing activities, identifying
precedence relationships, determining critical
activities, determining activity times and costs,
estimating material and worker requirements during
the entire project.
;Controlling monitoring resources, costs, quality,
and budgets, revising plans and shifts resources to
meet time and cost demands.
1/23/2015
Project Management Essentials
From: Operations Management, 8th Edition, Jay Heizer and Barry Render, 2007.
1/23/2015
Statement of Work (SOW)

A project begins with a statement of work that
contains the objectives, a brief statement of
the work to be performed, and schedule
specifying the start and end dates.
SOW also often contains performance
measures in terms of budget and completion
steps (milestones), and the deliverables to be
supplied.
1/23/2015
Work Breakdown Structures (WBS)

A project has a work breakdown structure (WBS) that
contains the hierarchy of tasks, subtasks, and work packages.
Completion of one group of work packages results in the
completion of a subtask, completion of one group of
subtasks results in the completion of a task, and completion
of all tasks results in the completion of project.
Activity is used within WBS to indicate a piece of work that
consumes time.
Activity can also mean no work, e.g., waiting for the paint
that was applied in the previous activity to dry before
proceeding to the next activity.
1/23/2015
10
Work Breakdown Structures

The number of hierarchy levels within WBS is not
fixed; it may vary depends on the complexity of the
project.
There is not a single correct WBS for any project;
two different project teams may develop two different
WBS for the same project.
Project Management is often referred to as an art
rather than a science, since there are so many
different ways that a project can be approached.
1/23/2015
11
WBS for Projects

Level
Program
Project 1
Project 2
Task 1.1
Task 1.2
Subtask 1.1.1
Work Package 1.1.1.1
Subtask 1.1.2
Work Package 1.1.1.2
1/23/2015
12
Project Scheduling: Gantt Charts
From: http://demo2.ilog.com:8080/WebEditor.aspx
The Gantt chart is named after Henry L. Gantt who developed this type of bar charts for
controlling shipbuilding projects in World War I.
The Gantt chart is used to show the duration (amount of time required), start dates and
end dates, and the sequence of performance for the tasks, subtasks, and activities (work
packages) in a project.
1/23/2015
13
Project Management Techniques

Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) and Critical
Path Method (CPM) were both developed in 1950s to help
managers plan, schedule and control large projects.
CPM was developed in 1957 by Kelly and Walker for building
and scheduling maintenance of chemical processing plants at
duPont based on reasonably accurate time estimate for activities.
PERT was developed in 1958 by Booz, Allen and Hamilton for
the U.S. Navys Polaris missile project in handling uncertain
activity time estimates.
PERT and CPM share many similar features; the main difference
is that PERT employs three time estimates for each activity while
CPM uses only one time factor per activity since it assumes that
the activity times are known with certainty.
1/23/2015
14
Framework of PERT and CPM
PERT and CPM both follow six basic steps:

1. Define the project SOW and prepare the WBS.
2. Develop the relationships among the activities. Decide which activities
must precede and which must follow others.
3. Draw the network formed by connecting all activities.
4. Assign time and/or cost estimates to each activity.
5. Compute the longest time path through the network; this longest time
path is called the critical path.
6. Use the network to help plan, schedule, monitor, and control project.
Finding the critical path is a major part of controlling the

project since if any one of the activities on the critical path is
delayed, the entire project is delayed.
1/23/2015
15
CPM with a Single Time Estimate

Statement of Work: Identify a new type of airplane for
manufacturing consideration.
Activities identified in the WBS:
A(2) Forecasting;
B(4) Analyzing forecast data;
C(2) SWOT analysis; and
D(2) making team decision on the recommendation of the new type of
airplane for manufacturing based on forecast data and SWOT analysis
results.
Note: the number in parenthesis shown adjacent to the activity

name indicates the duration of the activity in months.
1/23/2015
16
Creation of Activity Network

Network: Create sequences of activities based on activity
predecessors: B and C cannot start before A is completed; and
D cannot start before B and C are completed.
B(4)
A(2)
D(2)
C(2)
1/23/2015
17
CPM with a Single Time Estimate Contd
Critical Path: Consider the sequences of

activities, (A-B-D) and (A-C-D), and sum the
activity times. In this case A-B-D is the critical
path since the activity time (8 months) is the
longest.
Early
Start
Schedule Options:
Early
Finish
Activity
Two basic options: early start / early finish (start

from the beginning and work towards the end)
and late start / late finish (start from the end and
work towards the beginning).
Late
Start
Late
Finish
Calculate 4 points in time for each activity.

Slack time = Late start time Early start time
1/23/2015
18
Network Creation for Activities A, B, C & D
Forward calculation from A to

D to obtain early-start / early-
finish time; the results are

0
B(4)
D(2)
6
name.
8
Backward calculation from D

to A to obtain late-start / late-
C(2)
4
shown on the upper right- and

left-hand corners of the activity
A(2)
0
finish time; the results are

6
shown on the lower right- and

left-hand corners of the activity
A-B-D is the critical path: no slack time.

C has a 2-month slack time.
1/23/2015
name.
19
LM_3 Exercise #1: Very-Light Jet (VLJ) Development

Recognizing Diamond Aircraft Industries and Eclipse Aviation have developed
VLJ, Bombardier would like to produce its own prototype to break into this
lucrative market (hypothetical).
Project manager has decided the following main tasks (or activities);
A. Design, material and engine selection, procurement, advanced manufacturing process
development, assembly tooling, certification requirements: 42 weeks
B. Manufacture prototype I using conventional method: 10 weeks (A)
C. Manufacture prototype II using advanced method: 14 weeks (A)
D. Test prototype I and develop testing procedure for prototype II: 4 weeks (B)
E. Write a report for advanced manufacturing method and write a report for prototype II
test procedure; testing of prototype II does not require completion of test procedure
report: 10 weeks (C & D)
F. Test prototype II; write comparison test report for prototypes I & II: 16 weeks (C & D)
G. Write final report and recommendation: 4 weeks (E & F)
Project manager is confident with the activity times based on Bombardiers

extensive experience on airplane development.
1/23/2015
20
LM_3 Exercise #1: CPM for VLJ Development

Do the following:
1. Develop the project task sequence by identify the immediate
predecessors for the tasks A to G.
2. Draw the network based on the precedence relationships.
3. Identify all the project paths.
4. Determine the critical path(s).
5. Calculate the early-start/early-finish and late-start/late-finish
schedules.
6. Determine the length of the project.
1/23/2015
21
PERT with 3 Time Estimates

If a single estimate of time required to complete an activity is not
reliable, the best procedure is to use three time estimates.
The three time estimates not only allow the activity time to be
estimated, but also allow an probability estimate of the completion
time for the entire network (project) to be determined.
The three time estimates are: a = optimistic time, i.e., time an
activity will take if everything goes as planned, only a 1% chance
that the activity time < a; m = best guess estimate of the time
required, i.e., most realistic estimate of time for complete the
activity; and b = pessimistic time, i.e., time an activity will take
under very unfavorable conditions, only a 1% chance that the
activity time > b.
1/23/2015
22
PERT Analysis: Expected Time & Variance

The expected time (ET) for an activity completion is
estimated based on the beta statistical distribution:
ET = (a + 4m + b) / 6
Using the ET for each activity to calculate the critical
path.
Variance, 2 ,for each ET is calculated by:
2 = [(b a) /6]2
1/23/2015
23
Beta Distribution with 3 Time Estimates
1/23/2015
24
Probability Estimate of Project End Date

The probability of completing the project on a given date is
determined based on the application of standard normal
distribution.
The assumption is activity times are independent random
variables that follow a beta statistical distribution; based on the
Central Limit Theorem, the sum of independent random variables
approaches a normal distribution.
In a PERT analysis, the ETs for all the activities are assumed to
be independent random variables; and the sum of all the ETs for
the critical path activities, TE , approaches a normal distribution;
note that TE = the expected time for project completion.
Sum of the variances of activity times along the critical path is
the variance of the expected time to complete the path or project.
1/23/2015
25
Probability Estimate of Project End Date Contd
The probability of completion of the project by a certain date can be estimated

based on the Z transformation formula for normal distribution:
D TE
D
TE
Where:
2
cp
2
cp
= Desired project completion time

= Expected project completion time
= Square root of sum of variances of
activity times along critical path
The value of Z is the number of standard deviations, defined as the ratio of the
deviation of the desired project completion time, D, from the expected project
completion time, TE , and the square root of the sum of variances of activity
times along critical path.
The probability of meeting the desired project completion time is determined

using the value of Z and a table showing the areas of the cumulative normal
distribution found in statistics textbooks.
TE is the sum of expected times for the critical path activities.

1/23/2015
26
Probability of Project Completion
Chart shows the Z value for 99% probability of project completion

1/23/2015
27
Cumulative Areas for the Normal Distribution
To find the area under

the normal curve, use
the table to the left.
Input Z, the number of
standard deviations to
the right of the mean.
Read the area under the
normal curve directly
from the table, e.g., for
Z = 1.55 to the right of
the mean, total area is
0.93943.
1/23/2015
28
Managing Resources
In addition to scheduling each activity (or task), resources
must be allocated (people, equipment, etc.).
Over-allocations (situations where allocations exceed company
resources) are common problems and must be corrected.
To resolve over-allocation problems, resources can be added
(subcontracting, overtime, double shift, temporary workers,
etc.) or re-scheduling (e.g., moving a task within its slack time
can free up resources without affecting schedule).
Mid- to high-level project management information systems
(PMIS) software can resolve over-allocations through a
leveling feature using certain specified rules such as lowpriority tasks should be delayed until higher priority tasks are
completed or revising the project end date.
1/23/2015
29
Tracking Progress
Actual progress will differ from the original, or baseline, planned progress,
once the project is underway.
To ensure successful completion of project (on time and within budget),

tracking the progress and updating the project plan are necessary.
It is normal practice to use PMIS software for progress tracking in real world
projects (extremely difficult, impossible or ineffective for manual tracking):
Software can hold several different baseline plans and monthly progress
snapshots can be provided for comparisons.
Tracking Gantt chart that superimposes the current schedule onto a baseline plan
so deviations are easily highlighted can be supplied.
Spreadsheet or graph views of different tracking focuses such as the actual usage
of resources against planned usage of resources, deviations between planned
start/finish and newly re-scheduled start/finish dates, and budgeted costs against
actual costs, can be provided for project revising if required.
1/23/2015
30
LM_3 Exercise #2: PERT for VLJ Development
Recognizing upcoming shift in resources to clear back log in Global Express,

Bombardier decided to change the approach from CPM to PERT:
Project manager has decided the following 3 time estimates (a, m and b) for
Tasks (activities) A to G in weeks:
A. Design, material and engine selection, procurement, advanced manufacturing process

development, assembly tooling, certification requirements : a = 20, m = 44, b = 56.
B. Manufacture prototype I using conventional method: a = 8, m = 8, b = 20.
C. Manufacture prototype II using advanced method: a = 8, m = 12, b = 28.
D. Test prototype I and develop testing procedure for prototype II: a = 2, m = 4, b = 6.
E. Write a report for advanced manufacturing method and a report for prototype II test
procedure; testing of prototype II does not require completion of test procedure report: a
= 2, m = 10, b =18.
F. Test prototype II; write comparison test report for prototypes I & II: a = 14, m = 16, b
=18.
G. Write final report and recommendation : a = 4, m = 4, b = 4.
1/23/2015
31
LM_3 Exercise #2: PERT for VLJ Development

Do the following:
1.
Develop the project task sequence by identify the immediate predecessors

for the tasks A to G.
2.
Draw the network based on the precedence relationships.
3.
Identify all the project paths.
4.
Determine the critical path(s).
5.
Calculate the early-start /early-finish and late-start /late-finish schedules

based on expected times for activities.
6.
Determine the length of the project based on expected times.
7.
Determine the probability of completing the project in 78 weeks.
8.
Determine the number of weeks for completing the project with 99%
probability.
1/23/2015
32
Normal Distribution Table
1/23/2015
33

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Project Requirements

Work in teams of 4 to 6 students to develop a robotic riveting facility in a company for

AER 818/ Prof. C. Poon

Project /Lab Groups

AER 818/ Prof. C. Poon

AER 818: Manufacturing Management

Statement of Work and Work Breakdown Structures

Managing Resources and Tracking Progress

AER 818/ Prof. C. Poon

Why Project Managers are Needed?

Completing projects successfully on time and within budget requires project

In summary, project managers perform the management functions in

AER 818/ Prof. C. Poon

Common Project Structures

AER 818/ Prof. C. Poon

Functions of Project Managers

AER 818/ Prof. C. Poon

Project Management Essentials

AER 818/ Prof. C. Poon

Statement of Work (SOW)

AER 818/ Prof. C. Poon

Work Breakdown Structures (WBS)

AER 818/ Prof. C. Poon

Work Breakdown Structures

AER 818/ Prof. C. Poon

WBS for Projects

Work Package 1.1.1.1

Work Package 1.1.1.2

AER 818/ Prof. C. Poon

Project Scheduling: Gantt Charts

AER 818/ Prof. C. Poon

Project Management Techniques

AER 818/ Prof. C. Poon

Framework of PERT and CPM

PERT and CPM both follow six basic steps:

Finding the critical path is a major part of controlling the

AER 818/ Prof. C. Poon

CPM with a Single Time Estimate

Note: the number in parenthesis shown adjacent to the activity

AER 818/ Prof. C. Poon

Creation of Activity Network

AER 818/ Prof. C. Poon

CPM with a Single Time Estimate Contd

Critical Path: Consider the sequences of

Two basic options: early start / early finish (start

Calculate 4 points in time for each activity.

AER 818/ Prof. C. Poon

Network Creation for Activities A, B, C & D

Forward calculation from A to

finish time; the results are

Backward calculation from D

shown on the upper right- and

finish time; the results are

shown on the lower right- and

A-B-D is the critical path: no slack time.

AER 818/ Prof. C. Poon

LM_3 Exercise #1: Very-Light Jet (VLJ) Development

Project manager is confident with the activity times based on Bombardiers