Gartner Research ERP
Gartner Research ERP
Gartner Research ERP
Peter Sondergaard
Senior Vice President, Gartner Research
Contents
4 How To Use This Booklet
4 Why Research Matters
5 Setting the Research Agenda
5 Developing the Research Story
Scenarios 6
Key Issues
6
Strategic Planning Assumptions 6
31 Summary
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A quantitative/qualitative blend
We do more than collect facts, findings and observations. We tell you what it all means.
While our quantitative skills are highly respected throughout the industry, we never
omit the qualitative level that tells the story behind the numbers the story others may
not be seeing.
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Client interactions from user, provider and investor inquiries, as well as vendor
briefings, expose trends and highlight new issues. Search statistics and Web page
views on gartner.com further inform our agenda ideas.
Focus group and survey results help us refine the agenda. Personal interactions
at events provide additional insight, which feeds into our quarterly review and
recalibration process.
User councils and advisory boards, designed to gather critical feedback about
our ongoing research, are conducted regularly with representatives of all our constituent
groups worldwide.
Associates from other Gartner business units, such as managing partners from
Gartner Consulting, provide input into the client implementation strategies they see
occurring in the field. Gartner product managers share the market analysis they conduct
to support the development of new research offerings. Gartner sales executives share
the challenges their clients are facing.
We arent just internally focused when it comes to constructing the research agenda.
We also track trends and gather ideas from secondary research and multiple sources
throughout industry and academia.
While all of the above sources drive our agenda decisions, there are instances when
formal agenda managers recommend that we explore a picture that is larger or more
significant than what is revealed from our standard data collection process.
Moreover, our agenda is not set in stone. The agenda process is designed for change.
For example, analysts constantly test their models, resulting in new ideas or ways of
looking at things. Unforeseen market events, management announcements from key
users or providers, or merger and acquisition activities can also trigger adjustments to
the agenda.
Every business wants to be more productive. But strategies that focus on cutting
routine production costs are running out of steam. A new wave of approaches
ranging from social tagging, expertise location, social network analysis and content,
and other new analytic and inferential tools help people and organizations improve
their performance on non-routine tasks to improve the leverage of people with scarce
and valuable creative skills. The results lead to enhanced business agility, innovation
and revenue growth.
Austin and his peers study the high-performance workplace to discover how
productivity can be enhanced through technology investments that yield higher returns
on existing resources, rather than by cutting resources. Gartner research in this area
looks at investment strategies that depart from traditional thinking to create desired
business outcomes with more innovative approaches.
Gartner reports use the elements of our research architecture Scenarios, Key Issues
and Strategic Planning Assumptions to tell the complete story.
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Scenarios
Gartner Master Scenarios paint a 30,000-foot aerial picture of the entire IT industry
or a large geopolitical issue. For example, if the price of oil triples, what impact will that
have on your near- and long-term business decisions? It might mean more investment in
videoconferencing and wireless devices since people will travel less. How will other Web
and audio technologies be affected? Moreover, what alternate scenarios could play out?
If youre a retailer or distributor, what impact would a new megavendor, Goog-Azon,
created from a merger between Google and Amazon, have on your business? These
events would alter the outcome of any large scenario; hence, we develop other pictures
to help you prepare for the unexpected. Overall, topic and theme scenarios describe
how events will unfold over the next few years based on trends we see developing today.
Finally, how will scenarios and their associated predictions play out in different global
regions? Areas in software, hardware and IT services are covered in five global regions
in fields of study such as Web services, real-time infrastructure, application development,
environmentally sustainable IT, mobile computing and others.
Key Issues
Key management issues emerge from every scenario. For example, what are the
technologies that are positioned to change an industrys predominant way of doing
business? For example, how will rising demand for energy in developing nations affect
decisions about data center power and cooling? Which providers are leading in helping
data centers address inevitable power deficiencies? Key issues help you identify and
prioritize the types of decisions youll likely face as scenarios play out.
For example:
By 2020, consumer data collected from wearable devices will drive 5% of sales from
the Global 1000.
By 2017, over half of consumer goods manufacturers will employ crowdsourcing to
achieve fully 75% of their consumer innovation and R&D capabilities.
An SPA creates a debate around an assumption. It goes beyond the facts and data into
suppositions and judgment calls. In client organizations that want to be technology
leaders, decisions are often educated judgment calls. SPAs are part of the education.
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Refining Scenarios
What revolutions or major discontinuities in IT will take place over the next five to
10 years? What kind of impact will they have on your current and future processes
and investments?
Questions like these drive our research objectives. And because were independent and
not tied to any predetermined outcome, we set objectives that explore tough situations
or outcomes that people may not want to hear. Research objectives are updated as the
industry evolves through technology advances, industry consolidation and changing
business models.
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Validation
The final step validates our findings against multiple sources (both internal and external).
We do a final search for input from all available channels. This is coupled with intense
internal debate over our conclusions. Consensus on the position is reached, or the
position is discarded.
Updating our research process is an ongoing process because our research architecture
demands it. Validation restarts the process to ensure we keep pace with the rapid rate
of change in the business and IT environments.
Vendor Rating
ITScore
Market Share
Market Forecast
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Challengers
Challengers are well positioned to execute, but may not have a strategy in place to
maintain strong, up-to-date value propositions for new customers. Larger providers
in mature markets may often be positioned as Challengers because they choose to
minimize risk.
Although Challengers typically have significant human and financial resources, they may
lack vision, innovation or overall understanding of where the market is headed. In some
cases, challengers may offer products that dominate a large but shrinking segment
of the market. Challengers have the opportunity to move into the Leaders quadrant by
expanding their vision.
Niche Players
Niche Players do well in a specific market segment or they have limited ability
to innovate or outperform other providers. This may be because they focus on a
functionality or geographic region, or they are new entrants to the market.
Assessing Niche Players is more challenging than assessing providers in other
quadrants. While some Niche Players could make progress, others do not execute
well and may not be able to keep pace with broader market demands.
Ability To Execute
Challengers
Niche Players
Leaders
Visionaries
Completeness Of Vision
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Leaders
Leaders provide mature offerings that meet todays market demand. These providers
also demonstrate the vision necessary to sustain their leading position as the market
evolves. Leaders focus and invest in their offerings in ways that impact and influence the
markets overall direction.
Visionaries
Visionaries align with the Gartner view of how a market will evolve, but they have lessproven capabilities to deliver against their vision. In new markets, this status is normal.
But in more mature markets, it may reflect a competitive strategy for a smaller provider
(such as selling innovation ahead of mainstream demand), or a larger provider trying to
break out of a rut to differentiate.
For providers and customers, Visionaries fall into the higher-risk/higher-reward category.
They often introduce new technology, services or business models, but they may need
to build financial strength and more sophisticated service, support, and sales and
distribution channels.
Market understanding
Ability to understand and translate buyer needs into products and services.
Marketing strategy
Consistent communication of a clear, differentiated set of messages through the Web,
advertising, customer programs and positioning statements.
Sales strategy
Ability to mobilize the complete marketing and sales mix using channels, marketing,
sales support and communication affiliates to extend the scope and depth of the
providers market reach and customer base.
Business model
The validity and logic of the underlying business proposition.
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Innovation
Marshaling of resources, expertise or capital for competitive advantage, investment,
consolidation or defense against acquisition.
Geographic strategy
Strategy to meet the needs of regions outside of the providers home or native area,
directly or through partners, channels and subsidiaries.
The providers ability to execute, positioned on the Magic Quadrants vertical axis,
assesses its capabilities in:
Overall viability
An assessment of overall financial health, the financial and practical success of the
relevant business unit and the likelihood the business will continue to invest in its
product offerings.
Sales execution/pricing
Pre-sales capabilities and support structure, including management, pricing and
negotiation, pre-sales support and the overall effectiveness of the sales channel.
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Marketing execution
The quality and efficacy of programs designed to deliver the providers message to
influence the market, promote its brand, increase product awareness and create
buyer empathy.
Customer experience
Relationships, products and programs that enable clients to experience success through
the providers offerings; includes the ways customers receive account support and
technical assistance, the quality and availability of customer support programs, access
to user groups, and the quality, flexibility and availability of service-level agreements.
Operations
Ability to meet goals and commitments, including the quality of organizational structure
and systems that enable the provider to operate effectively and efficiently.
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Our methodology requires that the critical capabilities for a class of products or
services are defined. These are attributes that differentiate products and services in
a class in terms of their quality and performance. The critical capabilities will typically
form a small subset or a grouping of the features commonly required by this class of
products and services, not the entire range of capabilities that could be assessed. The
capabilities that form the most important criteria for acquisition decisions for the defined
usage scenarios are then established. These critical capabilities are distinct from the
multitude of important criteria that would be common across all usage scenarios, but
that offer little differentiation. Each capability will be more or less important to every use
case defined, which is represented by its weighting.
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Technology Trigger
A potential technology breakthrough kicks off new hype when a product or technology
is introduced. There is often excitement and energy around the new technology and its
applications, although sometimes there is no usable product and commercial viability
is unproven.
Expectations
Peak of Inflated
Expectations
Technology
Trigger
pe
lo
gh
nli
fE
m
ten
ent
Plateau of
Productivity
Gartner Hype
Cycles provide
a graphic
representation
of the maturity
and adoption of
technologies and
applications.
Trough of
Disillusionment
Time
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Trough of Disillusionment
Issues with first-generation products arise, often because the technology is pushed
beyond its limits. Negative publicity sends the technology and its applications into the
Trough of Disillusionment. The technology does not live up to the inflated expectations
and is rapidly discredited. Some of the early trials end in highly publicized failures. A
significant amount of provider consolidation occurs.
However, amid the disillusionment, trials are ongoing and providers are improving
products based on early feedback. Some early adopters find benefit in putting the
technology to work.
Slope of Enlightenment
The technology begins its climb toward the early stages of maturity as second- and
third-generation products are launched, and methodologies and tools are added to
ease the development process. Aggressive organizations are comfortable managing any
adoption issues, while moderately aggressive organizations initiate pilots. Conservative
enterprises remain wary.
At the beginning of this phase, penetration is often significantly less than 5% of the
potential market. This will grow to approximately 20% as the technology enters the
Plateau of Productivity.
Plateau of Productivity
The Plateau of Productivity represents the beginning of mainstream adoption, when the
business benefits of the technology are positively measured. As the technology matures,
an ecosystem of multiple providers of products and services emerges. Adjacent
markets that extend the technologys value also emerge.
As applications are adopted in thousands of enterprises, the hype begins to diminish
and the criteria for assessing provider viability become defined. The technologys broad
market applicability and relevance are clearly paying off.
BENEFIT
Transformational
Invest aggressively
if not already
adopted
Conservative
investment profile
Moderate
investment profile
Aggressive
investment profile
High
Conservative
investment profile
Moderate
investment profile
Aggressive
investment profile
Moderate
investment profile
Aggressive
investment profile
Moderate
Aggressive
investment profile
Low
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5 to 10 years
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Fast-track technologies go through the Hype Cycle within two to four years.
Normal technologies with relatively few inhibitors can traverse the Hype Cycle in five
to eight years.
Long-fuse technologies spend a longer-than-average time in the Trough of
Disillusionment, resulting in a slower Hype Cycle traversal sometimes as long as
one or two decades.
The vertical axis looks at the potential benefit of the technology. Options
for the benefit rating are:
Transformational. Enables new ways of doing business across all industries that will
result in major shifts in industry dynamics.
High. Enables new ways of performing horizontal or vertical processes that will result
in significantly increased revenue or cost savings for an enterprise.
Moderate. Provides incremental improvements to established processes that will
result in increased revenue or cost savings for an enterprise.
Low. Slightly improves processes (for example, improved user experience) that
will be difficult to translate into increased revenue or cost savings.
The horizontal axis groups the technologies according to the same
years-to-mainstream-adoption rating used in the Gartner Hype Cycle. The
years-to-mainstream-adoption rating is a simple measure of risk based on the projected
rate of maturation for a technology. Together, these two dimensions give you an
evaluation of which technologies will impact your type of organization, by how much
and when.
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Market
Start
COMMODITIZATION
AC
PL
AD
VA
RE
G
TA
Dawn of
Standards
CH
O
ST
Dusk of
Obsolescence
EN
EM
IC
CO
Zenith of
Industrialization
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The clock is divided into quarters, each representing one of the market phases of
an assets useful life. The names of the quarters highlight the general approach
recommended for assets passing through that phase:
Advantage assets in the customized phase, which provide differentiated technology,
service or capability
Choice assets in the mass-customized phase, subject to increasing levels of
standardization and growing supply options
Cost assets in the commoditized phase, where differentiation between alternative
sources is at its minimum level and competition centers on price
Replacement assets in the disfavored phase, usually legacy technologies, services
or capabilities
The Dawn of Standards: Three oclock is the boundary between the Advantage and
Choice phases. This is the point at which standardization (of definitions, requirements
and/or practices) typically begins to occur, leading to greater interoperability for users
and reduced barriers to entry for suppliers. Requisite skills become more freely available
in the market, reducing internal costs of deployment and use.
The Zenith of Industrialization: Six oclock is the boundary between the Choice and
Cost phases. Applicable standards are mature and broadly embraced, supplier choice
reaches its maximum level, and competition is at its most intense. Demand growth
slows as the addressable market approaches saturation. Many organizations look for
industrialized technology options (predesigned and preconfigured solutions that are
highly automated, repeatable, scalable and reliable).
The Dusk of Obsolescence: Nine oclock is the boundary between the Cost and
Replacement phases. The addressable market is saturated, and lower-cost or better
alternatives are usually available. Buying organizations and suppliers begin to refocus
elsewhere. Skills also begin to be less freely available as workers retrain in more
profitable areas.
A Market Clock Recommendation Summary provides a tabular summary of the positions
and expected trajectory for each IT asset or asset class. It also highlights, for each
technology asset listed, general recommendations at a glance that need attention
right away or in the near future as well as what the issues are and who needs to pay
the greatest attention to them. In some cases, the recommendation is not for the entire
market or asset class, but rather it highlights specific opportunities or risks for a specific
vendor/product.
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RATING
DEFINITION
Strong Positive
Positive
Demonstrates strength in specific areas, but execution in one or more areas may
still be developing or inconsistent with other areas of performance
Customers: Can continue planned investments
Potential Customers: Should consider this provider a viable choice for
strategic or tactical investments, while planning for known limitations
Promising
Caution
Strong Negative
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Strategy
When evaluating strategy, we assess the providers strategic soundness, long-term
potential and capabilities to define its opportunities in both present and future markets.
We also look at the companys clarity of goals and its employee commitment. Is the
provider pursuing the right markets? Is the provider staying away from markets that
arent appropriate for its solutions? Answers to both types of questions are sought.
Financial
Gartner evaluates how well a providers revenue stream (from products, services and
subscriptions) supports its strategy, stability and cash position. We also consult
financial filings and other sources that measure profitability and growth. Other metrics
we analyze include consistent revenue growth, cash position and the providers R&D
investment history.
Marketing
Analysts assess how aggressively the provider is marketing to the prospects and
customers most qualified to buy. We also assess how well the provider communicates
its market and product vision, and how well it differentiates its value proposition in both
horizontal and vertical markets.
Organization
If a providers organizational structure is out of sync with its strategy, its chances
of success are slim. We look for a strong management team that is committed to
the organization and its long-term goals. We also assess managements ability to
grow the organization and adapt to change. Another important consideration: how
well management is providing its workforce with the tools and skills to fulfill its
strategic ambitions.
Products/services
Gartner evaluates how the provider markets, delivers and supports its offerings. Providers
may offer products (such as hardware, software and networking) and services (such
as implementation, consulting and integration). We also consider how well a product
fits into a providers overall strategy, its completeness and the size of any gaps in its
offering portfolio.
STRONG POSITIVE
POSITIVE
PROMISING
CAUTION
STRONG NEGATIVE
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Technology
Gartner analysts are specifically interested in whether a provider is being proactive or
reactive to technology developments that impact its offerings. For example, is the
provider truly harnessing new technology or just repackaging its communications to
reflect new thought leadership? Are product suites based on common architectures?
Is the technology extensible and adaptable to change? Are underlying architectures
taking advantage of mainstream industry standards?
Pricing
Prices should be fair, and pricing policies should be consistent, with clear terms and
conditions. We also take note of the providers established pricing practices and
discounting policies, and whether a provider is acquiring business with unsustainable
pricing practices in an effort to buy market share.
Sales/distribution
Successful providers leverage sales channels by developing partnerships that
encourage long-term, profitable relationships. We look for potential channel conflict
and the quality of agreements with OEMs and value-added resellers. We also consider
whether a providers offerings are tailored to market segments of a specific size or
vertical market, or whether the provider is taking a one-size-fits-all approach.
Support services
We evaluate the instances, both positive and negative, that Gartner clients experience
with a providers support services. We also look at the providers ability to support its
legacy solutions and new products, as well as its ability to leverage partners to round
out a complete solution for customers. We consider whether a provider uses services to
grow its business or support its business. For example, does the provider have service
customers who are not product customers?
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Gartner ITScore
IT organizational maturity is hugely influenced by the role of technology in the enterprise,
as well as by business leader behaviors and attitudes concerning IT. Even the most
effective IT leaders find it difficult to influence these factors because they are often a
by-product of enterprise industry, culture and leader demographics all of which are
slow to change. This can create a maturation ceiling beyond which the IT organization
cannot, and perhaps should not, advance until the business itself signals it is ready.
Gartner ITScore quantifies the maturity of both the IT organization (as a provider of
information technology) and the enterprise (as a consumer of information technology),
and present recommendations for enhancing the capabilities of both. Business and IT
leaders can exploit ITScore to identify and remedy constraints on their capacity and
performance in leveraging IT.
This combined top-down and bottom-up approach provides business and IT leaders
significant insights into what they want to accomplish, where they are today in developing
the necessary capabilities, and what they need to do to close gaps and advance.
PPM
Operations
Staffing
Finance
Software
Vendor
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Architecture
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Provider B
Industry A
Industry B
Region A
Provider A
Region B
Provider C
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Industry C
Region C
Gartner Market
Share reveals what
types of solutions
are succeeding,
which are trailing
and where
opportunities exist
for providers to take
additional share.
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Gartner Market
Forecasts track
the complete
supply chain
of hundreds of
products and
services, allowing
us to reconcile
top-down and
bottom-up
approaches.
SPENDING
LOW
CURRENT
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FORECAST
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Internet of Things
IT Audit
Cloud Management
Content Management
Digital Marketing
Social Media
Storage
Enterprise Architecture
Vendor Management
Virtualization
Web Technologies
Gartner Fellows
Each year, Gartner awards the title Fellow to a select number of analysts who have
been consistent innovators and thought leaders in some of ITs biggest challenges and
opportunities. This global think tank combines the best of industry and academia to
ensure that Gartner remains at the leading edge of trends and ideas.
For example, Gartner Fellow Neil MacDonald says:
Security and virtualization are hot topics on their own but explosive when they are
combined. The Gartner Fellows program is doing a lot to enable my research in this
area, which ultimately helps users, providers and investors. Its a great example of the
unique type of research that is possible through the Gartner Fellows program.
Gartner Fellows also contribute to the Gartner Research Incubator: A Journal of
Unconventional Thinking, a publication devoted to new ideas currently being developed
in the Gartner lab. The journal provides clients with an opportunity to see the very
first wisps of ideas as they are being formulated.
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Summary
Research is essential to any business because it informs decisions, reduces risk and
helps us understand how others like us are responding to change. But for research
to add real value and confidence to decision making, it must derive from an unbiased
source with no interest in any predetermined outcome.
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