Advances in Space Research 38 (2006) 226–231

www.elsevier.com/locate/asr

The Carrington event: Possible doses to crews in space from

a comparable event
a,*
L.W. Townsend , D.L Stephens Jr. b, J.L. Hoff a, E.N. Zapp c, H.M. Moussa a,
T.M. Miller a, C.E. Campbell a, T.F. Nichols a
a
Department of Nuclear Engineering, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996-2300, USA
b
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99352, USA
c
Space Radiation Analysis Group, Lockheed Martin Space Operations, Houston, TX 77059, USA

Received 22 November 2004; received in revised form 10 January 2005; accepted 11 January 2005

Abstract

Recent ice core analyses suggest that the Carrington event of 1859 may have been the largest solar energetic particle event in the
past several hundred years. Previous analyses of potential doses to humans and electronics from such an event suggested that a Car-
rington-like event, with a hard spectrum similar to that of the event of September 1989 could be catastrophic. Subsequent analyses
of the 10Be concentration in the ice core data suggest that the spectral hardness of the Carrington event was softer and similar to the
August 1972 event. In this work we review the earlier estimates of doses from a Carrington event, and present updated dose esti-
mates for deep space crews and electronics using the Carrington event proton fluence P30 MeV in combination with an event spec-
trum similar to that of the August 1972 event. Potential ramifications of these doses for humans and electronics on deep space
missions are discussed.
 2005 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Solar energetic particle event; Space radiation; Total ionizing doses; Carrington Flare; Space radiation risks

1. Introduction reasonable upper bound on radiation doses for these

sporadic events.
During the space era many solar energetic particle In previous work, estimates of interplanetary crew or-
events (SPEs) have been observed. Most have too few gan doses for several plausible worst-case solar particle
energetic protons to be a health concern to interplane- events have been made and the results summarized else-
tary crews. Extremely large events can, however, pose where (Townsend et al., 2001). These analyses typically
significant health risks to crews, especially if adequate involved various combinations of events, or arbitrary
shielding is not provided. These events typically occur scaling of measurements of large events, that previously
only once or twice during an 11-year solar cycle. An occurred during the four decades of the space era. Re-
unresolved issue in the space radiation protection com- cently, we took a different approach and investigated
munity is ‘‘What constitutes a worst case event?’’ For plausible worst-case SPE spectra based on recently re-
mission planning purposes a realistic, hypothetical ported SPE fluence estimates obtained from the concen-
worst-case solar particle event spectrum can provide a tration of nitrates found in ice core samples spanning
approximately the last 500 years (McCracken et al.,
* 2001). Details of the methodology are available in
Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 865 974 7569; fax: +1 865 974
0668. McCracken et al. (2001) and references therein. For this
E-mail address: ltownsen@tennessee.edu (L.W. Townsend). 500 year period the ‘‘Carrington’’ solar flare of 1859 had

0273-1177/$30  2005 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

doi:10.1016/j.asr.2005.01.111
 L.W. Townsend et al. / Advances in Space Research 38 (2006) 226–231 227

the largest estimated integral fluence of protons their reaction products (protons, neutrons, deuterons,
>30 MeV with a value of 18.8 · 109 cm2. This value tritons, hellions, and alphas) through the aluminum
was at the top of the polar atmosphere (exoatmospheric) shield material and body tissues overlying the critical
and is assumed to be that which would have been found organs of interest. Distributions of the body organ self-
in space at the location of EarthÕs orbit. Hence, it may shielding are obtained with the Computerized Anatomi-
be an excellent candidate for a plausible worst-case cal Man (CAM) model (Billings and Yucker, 1973),
event. Unfortunately, one fluence datum at a single en- which is the standard human geometry model used within
ergy does not constitute a spectrum. Hence, to generate NASA to estimate organ doses. The input spectra were
plausible spectra, the Carrington flare fluence for assumed to be represented by an energy (Weibull) param-
>30 MeV protons, reported by McCracken et al. eterization form based upon the fits for the September
(2001) has been used as an overall normalization in com- 1989 and March 1991 events by Xapsos et al. (2000)
bination with the spectral shapes of several large solar dU
particle events from the space era to create hypothetical ¼ U0 kaEa1 expðkEa Þ; ð1Þ
dE
worst-case solar particle event spectra, which have been
used to assess possible doses in electronics (Townsend where U is the proton fluence, E is the proton energy in
et al., 2003) and humans (Stephens et al., 2005; Town- MeV, and U0, k and a are parameters used to fit the
send et al., 2004). spectra. They are listed in Table 1.
In this work, we summarize our earlier work on The incident SPE proton spectra are altered by the
hypothetical doses from the Carrington event, and pres- presence of the EarthÕs magnetic field, which is dipole-
ent revised estimates of critical organ doses based upon like in configuration. Charged particles that arrive at
more recent analyses of the Carrington event spectrum. some point within the geomagnetosphere are deflected
by the Lorentz force. For some energies and trajectories
the incident protons are deflected back into space and
2. Previous analyses of organ doses are unable to penetrate to the location of the spacecraft.
In that work, we used the geomagnetic cutoff model
Analyses of possible doses from a solar energetic par- developed at NASA Langley Research Center (Wilson
ticle event similar to the Carrington Event of 1859 have et al., 1990). The solid mass of the Earth also provides
been carried out for purposes of estimating doses in protection by cutting off particle trajectories that pass
deep space for electronics (Townsend et al., 2003) and through it. Hence, the incident spectra are reduced by
humans (Stephens et al., 2005); and for humans in the EarthÕs shadow shielding. We also assumed for sim-
low-Earth orbit (Townsend et al., 2004). In these analy- plicity that the spacecraft orbits were circular and that
ses various spectral shapes were assumed. All were nor- the spacecraft was always in the most exposed orbit.
malized to the Carrington event >30 MeV proton The latter is a crude approximation since it results in sig-
fluence value of 1.88 · 1010 cm2 reported in McCrac- nificant overestimates of the actual organ doses. Never-
ken et al. (2001). The findings of each of these analyses theless, the lack of knowledge of the actual fluence
are summarized in the following sections. versus time development of the Carrington event pre-
cludes any reasonable attempt to include orbital phasing
2.1. Organ doses in LEO and thereby obtain realistic estimates. Finally, geomag-
netic storm effects on the magnetic field cutoffs were also
To generate plausible spectra, the Carrington event modeled using the Langley model (Wilson et al., 1990).
fluence of >30 MeV protons was used as an overall nor- Organ doses using the two assumed spectra were cal-
malization point in combination with the measured culated for orbit inclinations from 28.5 to 90 at a
spectral shapes of two, recent large solar particle events 400 km altitude. Typical results, taken from Townsend
from the space era, the events of September 1989 and
March 1991, to create hypothetical worst-case solar par-
ticle event spectra (Townsend et al., 2004). The question Table 1
Spectral parameters for hypothetical Carrington event spectra in
addressed in that study was, ‘‘How large a problem
power law parameterization form
could an event of this magnitude be for missions in
Spectrum shape used U0 (protons cm2) k a
LEO where there is some protection afforded by the
10
EarthÕs geomagnetic field and actual physical bulk?’’ August 1972 5.23 · 10 0.0236 1.108
August 1989 1.81 · 1012 1.166 0.4015
To answer this question, doses to the skin, ocular lens,
September 1989 4.79 · 1011 0.877 0.3841
and bone marrow were estimated, as a function of alu- October 1989 4.64 · 1012 2.115 0.2815
minum shield thickness, for the two assumed spectra March 1991 1.47 · 1012 0.972 0.441
using the BRYNTRN space radiation transport code Parameters for five spectral shapes from events in the space era are
developed at NASA Langley Research Center (Wilson displayed. All are normalized to the >30 MeV proton fluence value of
et al., 1991). BRYNTRN transports SPE protons and McCracken et al. (2001).
228 L.W. Townsend et al. / Advances in Space Research 38 (2006) 226–231

Table 2
Organ doses in a 400 km – 51.6 orbit as a function of aluminum shield thickness for hypothetical Carrington event spectra (Townsend et al., 2004)
Aluminum Skin dose (cGy) Eye dose (cGy) Bone marrow dose (cGy)
shield (g cm2)
September 1989 March 1991 September 1989 March 1991 September 1989 March 1991
spectrum spectrum spectrum spectrum spectrum spectrum
1 944 1197 625 666 76.8 29.8
2 483 455 376 308 66.6 23.2
5 180 102 163 84.9 47.0 12.6
10 77.1 26.7 74.6 24.5 30.1 5.9
20 29.1 5.5 29.2 5.4 15.7 2.0
50 6.0 0.45 6.1 0.46 4.3 0.27
100 3.3 0.22 3.4 0.22 2.4 0.13
250 0.69 0.04 0.71 0.04 0.55 0.03

et al. (2004) are displayed in Table 2 for a 51.6 orbit, tissues overlying the critical organs of interest using
similar to that of the International Space Station. Note the BRYNTRN space radiation transport code. Again,
that the organ doses are quite large [up to 12 Gy the CAM model was used to provide the body organ
(1200 rads) for the skin and up to 80 cGy (80 rads) self-shielding distributions. Results of these analyses,
to the bone marrow] and could present a health risk to excerpted from Stephens et al. (2005), are displayed in
crews who are not adequately protected. To reduce the Table 3 for the skin, ocular lens of the eye, and the bone
doses from an event of this magnitude below the appro- marrow.
priate limits recommended by the National Council on From these organ dose estimates, it is generally clear
Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP, that that the largest organ doses result from an assumed
2000) requires 18 g cm2 aluminum shielding. As spectral shape similar to that of the September 1989
pointed out earlier, however, these estimates are for a event. This is not surprising since that spectrum is the
spacecraft confined to the most exposed orbit and prob- hardest. The lowest skin and bone marrow doses vary
ably represent significant overestimates of the actual among the August 1972, August 1989 and March 1991
dose that would be received if such an event were to oc- event spectra depending upon the assumed shield thick-
cur. They do, however, provide a reasonable upper ness. Organ doses for a spectral shape similar to the
bound for on possible organ doses. Details of the mod- October 1989 are slightly smaller than those obtained
els used and the complete set of organ doses calculated for the September 1989 spectrum shape. This also is
are presented in Townsend et al. (2004). not unexpected since the October 1989 event was nearly
as hard as the September 1989 event.
2.2. Organ doses in deep space In order to compare these dose estimates to the organ
doses necessary to induce acute radiation syndrome re-
For this study, five worst case spectra were assumed sponses in the crew, which are based upon acute expo-
based upon the spectra for the 4 August 1972, 12 August sures to gammas and not protons, a multiplicative
1989, 29 September 1989, 19 October 1989 and 23 relative biological effectiveness (RBE) factor should be
March 1991 events, all normalized to the Carrington applied (NCRP, 2000). The resulting dose in units of
event >30 MeV proton fluence value of 1.88 · 1010 gray-equivalent (Gy-Eq) is obtained from
cm2. Parameters for the assumed spectra, represented
doseðGy-EqÞ ¼ doseðGyÞ  RBE; ð2Þ
by a Weibull parameterization (Eq. (1)), are listed in Ta-
ble 1. These spectra were again transported through where an RBE = 1.5 is assumed, as recommended by the
spacecraft aluminum shielding and then through body NCRP. Thus, ‘‘dose’’ in units of Gy-Eq, indicates that

Table 3
Organ doses in cGy for crews in deep space from hypothetical Carrington events assuming various spectral shapes from the space era
Aluminum August 1972 August 1989 September 1989 October 1989 March 1991
shield
Skin (cGy) BFO (cGy) Skin (cGy) BFO (cGy) Skin (cGy) BFO (cGy) Skin (cGy) BFO (cGy) Skin (cGy) BFO (cGy)
thickness
1 3426 141 4362 129 3539 281 3967 212 4480 109
2 1905 105 1710 102 1801 244 1749 180 1694 85
5 556 47 414 59 665 171 546 122 378 46
10 123 15 119 30 282 109 208 75 98 22
Dose results are presented only for the skin and bone marrow (BFO). Doses to the ocular lens are similar to the skin doses. Aluminum shield
thicknesses are given in areal density units of g cm2. These results are excerpted from Stephens et al. (2005).
 L.W. Townsend et al. / Advances in Space Research 38 (2006) 226–231 229

the absorbed dose (in Gy) has been multiplied by the 1989 and March 1991 spectral shapes. The Carrington
RBE using Eq. (2). event proton spectra were parameterized in Eq. (1)
In Stephens et al. (2005), it was assumed that the and used the parameter values presented in Table 1.
whole body dose could be approximated by the bone The areal densities for the assumed shielding were 0.1,
marrow (BFO) dose. The study showed that significant 0.3, 0.5, 1 and 5 g cm2 Al. They were chosen as being
acute radiation syndrome effects were possible. Behind representative of nominal shielding thicknesses for
1 g cm2 aluminum shielding (slightly thicker than a manned and unmanned spacecraft components. Behind
space suit) an event whose spectrum was very hard (Sep- the Al shielding is a Si layer whose areal density is as-
tember 1989-like) yielded a dose of 2.8 Gy (4.2 Gy-Eq), sumed to be 0.1 g cm2. Incident SPE alpha and heavy
which is severe and could result in death. At typical ion fluxes are not included in these analyses, nor in
spacecraft shielding thicknesses (5–10 g cm2 alumi- any of the analyses presented earlier for human expo-
num) a BFO dose in the range of 1.6–2.6 Gy-Eq was cal- sures, since there are no data for these particle types
culated. Expected symptoms include nausea and emesis, for the Carrington Flare. Neglect of these components,
malaise, hematologic damage, and possibly death however, may indicate that the dose estimates presented
(NCRP, 2000). To reduce the BFO dose lower than herein and in our earlier works may be underestimates
the 0.25 Gy-Eq level (current 30d limit for missions in of the actual doses to be expected from such an event,
low-Earth orbit) a Ôstorm shelterÕ of 45–50 g cm2 especially for the very thin shields where the ranges of
(about 18 cm) of aluminum would be required. From the alphas and heavy ions are substantially larger than
the table, skin doses for space suit shielding (1 g cm2) the shield thickness.
for an event of this type could be as large as 56.2 Gy Estimates of doses in Si for these two assumed spec-
(84.3 Gy-Eq). For the eye (not shown in Table 3) doses tra are shown in Table 4. At 0.1 g cm2 (15 mils), the
could be as large as 26.3 Gy (39.5 Gy-Eq). Possible Carrington March 1991 Spectrum predicted dose value
symptoms include lens cataracts, keratitis, erythema, of 54 krad (Si) exceeds the 100% confidence level worst
epilation and moist desquamation (NCRP, 2000). For case value of 39 krad (Si) presented ii Xapsos et al.
typical space craft shielding thicknesses (10 g cm2) (2000). For 0.5 g cm2 (73 mils), the March 1991 pre-
the calculated doses are 2.8 Gy (4.2 Gy-Eq) for the skin dicted dose value presented herein exceeds the 100%
and 2.7 Gy (4.1 Gy-Eq) for the eye. The doses are re- confidence level worst case value, also presented in Xap-
duced to 0.33 Gy-Eq for both organs behind a storm sos et al. (2000), by nearly a factor of 2. The predicted
shelter thickness of 50 g cm2 of aluminum. Such doses dose value of 10.2 krad for the Carrington September
would be below the 30d limits for crews on missions in 1989 spectrum behind 0.5 g cm2 (73 mils) Al, how-
low-Earth orbit currently recommended by the NCRP ever, is very close to the Xapsos et al. (2000) value of
(2000). Fortunately, the spectrum for the Carrington 9 krad (Si). These differences, however, may not be sig-
event appears to be softer (Smart et al., 2005). Hence, nificant since the spectra used herein are composed of an
the organ doses would be lower and their effects on assumed spectral shape with a fluence magnitude ob-
the crew less severe. tained from the ice core data. Note also that 15 mils is
probably much less shielding than any component
would have on a modern spacecraft. Nevertheless, total
3. Previous analyses of electronic doses in deep space ionizing doses (TID) 50 krad(Si) from an event such as
described herein can be catastrophic for onboard elec-
Since many electronic components are less shielded tronics for both manned and unmanned missions. For
than the crew quarters, total ionizing doses received in parts shielded with less than 40 mils Al, doses exceed-
deep space by electronic components from a Carring- ing 25 krads (Si) are possible. Hence, it is clear that sig-
ton-type event could be substantially larger than those nificant shielding may be required to shield both
received by humans. Such doses might result in compo-
nent failure, especially for many commercial off the shelf
Table 4
(COTS) parts, which have not been radiation-hardened. Doses in silicon for hypothetical worst case solar energetic particle
In Townsend et al. (2003), doses in silicon materials events based on the Carrington event of 1859 (Townsend et al., 2003)
shielded by aluminum shield thicknesses comparable to Al shield Carrington event
those found in manned and unmanned spacecraft were thickness
September 1989 March 1991
calculated for deep space. The values obtained indicated (g cm2)
spectrum dose spectrum dose
that a Carrington-type event could present a significant (krad (Si)) (krad (Si))
hazard to onboard electronics. 0.1 25.9 53.9
Doses in silicon were calculated for two assumed 0.3 14.6 25.8
worst-case events using the BRYNTRN space radiation 0.5 10.2 16.1
transport code for five thicknesses of aluminum shield- 1 5.7 7.3
5 0.98 0.6
ing in free space. These events used the September
230 L.W. Townsend et al. / Advances in Space Research 38 (2006) 226–231

components and human crews in deep space, and in near Table 5

polar orbits since these events will have access into lower Doses in silicon for the hypothetical Carrington event using the August
1972 spectrum shape
altitude polar regions.
Al shield Carrington event
thickness (g cm2) August 1972
spectrum dose (rads (Si))
4. Revised estimates of possible Carrington event doses
0.1 13,611
0.3 10,414
Prior analyses of possible doses from a Carrington- 0.5 8495
type event, reviewed in the previous two sections, as- 1 5341
sumed a wide range of possible spectral shapes, ranging 2 3020
from soft to hard. For an assumed hard spectrum, the 3 1904
5 881
doses in human organs and in electronics were found 7 456
to be very large and problematic. In other recently re- 10 191
ported work, however, it is thought that the Carrington 15 54.3
event must have had a soft spectrum because of the lack 20 18
of 10Be production during the event, as recorded in the 25 6.7
35 1.3
ice core data (Beer et al., 1990; Smart et al., 2005). In 50 0.27
the latter work, it is suggested that the Carrington event
may have had a spectrum very similar to that of the Au-
gust 1972 event. Hence, in an effort to provide more likely and of little or no concern (NCRP, 2000). Note
plausible estimates of crew organ doses and electronic that 10 g cm2 aluminum is sufficient to reduce the
doses from a Carrington-type event, we have carried BFO dose lower than the 0.25 Gy-Eq level (current
out calculations using the BRYNTRN code for such 30d limit for missions in low-Earth orbit). Skin doses
an event composed of an August 1972 spectrum normal- for space suit shielding (1 g cm2) for an event of this
ized to the >30 MeV proton fluence from the ice core type could be as large as 34 Gy (51 Gy-Eq). For the
data (McCracken et al., 2001). The event spectral eye doses could be as large as 24 Gy (36 Gy-Eq). Possi-
parameters are listed in Table 1. Organ doses for crews ble symptoms include lens cataracts, keratitis, erythema,
in deep space, as a function of spacecraft aluminum epilation and moist desquamation (NCRP, 2000). For
shield thickness (up to 50 g cm2) are displayed in typical space craft shielding thicknesses (10 g cm2)
Fig. 1. For aluminum thicknesses 610 g cm2 these re- the calculated doses are 1.2 Gy (1.8 Gy-Eq) for the skin
sults are identical to the earlier results presented in Table and 1.1 Gy (1.6 Gy-Eq) for the eye. Comparing these
3. The results for aluminum thicknesses >10 g cm2 rep- doses to those described in Section 2.2 for a spectral
resent an extension of the previously reported results in shape similar to the September 1989 event, we note that
Stephens et al. (2005). the softer spectrum used here results in severe biological
Behind 1 g cm2 aluminum shielding (slightly thicker damage to crews only if they are in a relatively unpro-
than a space suit) this event yielded a dose of 1.4 Gy tected area (such as outside the spacecraft in a space-
(2.1 Gy-Eq), which is severe and could result in nausea, suit). For any reasonable spacecraft shielding thickness
emesis, malaise, hematologic damage, and a slight possi- the organ doses do not present a significant risk to crew
bility of death. At typical spacecraft shielding thick- members.
nesses (5–10 g cm2 aluminum) a BFO dose in the Table 5 presents total ionizing dose (TID) in silicon for
range of 0.21–0.70 Gy-Eq was calculated. Acute radia- electronics shielded by aluminum thicknesses ranging
tion syndrome response symptoms in this range are un- from 15 mils (0.1 g cm2) up to 50 g cm2. Comparing
these predictions with those presented in Table 4, we notes
that the doses obtained with the August 1972 spectral
Carrington Event Crew Organ Doses shape are much lower for very thin shields (61 g cm2),
10000
but comparable at 5 g cm2 aluminum shield thickness.
1000 Skin Dose The newer calculations extend the data out to 50 g cm2.
Dose (cGy)

Eye Dose
100 These TID values are not a problem for nominal space-
BFO Dose
10 craft shielding (thicknesses P5 g cm2).
1

0.1
0 10 20 30 40 50 5. Concluding remarks
Al Thickness (g/sq. cm)

Fig. 1. Organ doses versus aluminum shield thickness for crews in

Recent measurements of nitrates in ice core samples
deep space for a Carrington-type event based upon the August 1972 make available a history of integral fluences of large
solar energetic particle event spectrum. SPEs over a period covering the last 500 years. This
 L.W. Townsend et al. / Advances in Space Research 38 (2006) 226–231 231

information can be used to estimate a plausible, hypo- McCracken, K.G., Dreschhoff, G.A.M., Zeller, E.J., Smart, D.F.,
thetical worst case SPE for use in interplanetary mission Shea, M.A. Solar cosmic ray events for the period 1561–1994. 1.
Identification in polar ice, 1561–1950. J. Geophys. Res. 106 (A10),
planning. Given the lack of spectral shape information 21,585–21,598, 2001.
in the ice core methods, spectral shapes from large space NCRP, ‘‘Radiation Protection Guidance for Activities in Low-
era SPEs can be used in combination with the 30 MeV Earth Orbit,’’ National Council on Radiation Protection
fluence measurement for the Carrington Flare of 1859 and Measurements, Report 132. NCRP, Bethesda, MD,
to estimate critical organ doses from such an event. Re- 2000.
Smart, D.F., Shea, M.A., McCracken, K.G. The Carrington event:
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However, consideration of the 10Be concentration in the historical data for the Carrington flare of 1859. Acta Astronaut. 56,
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