Pershing Square Kraft Presentation
Pershing Square Kraft Presentation
Pershing Square Kraft Presentation
February 3, 2010
The analyses and conclusions of Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. ("Pershing Square") contained in
this presentation are based on publicly available information. Pershing Square recognizes that there may be
confidential information in the possession of the companies discussed in the presentation that could lead
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The analyses provided may include certain statements, estimates and projections prepared with respect to,
among other things, the historical and anticipated operating performance of the companies, access to capital
markets and the values of assets and liabilities. Such statements, estimates, and projections reflect various
assumptions by Pershing Square concerning anticipated results that are inherently subject to significant
economic, competitive, and other uncertainties and contingencies and have been included solely for
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such statements, estimates or projections or with respect to any other materials herein. Actual results may
vary materially from the estimates and projected results contained herein. Accordingly, no party should
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expressly disclaims liability on account of any party’s reliance on the information contained herein with
respect to any such purchases or sales.
Funds managed by Pershing Square and its affiliates have invested in the equity of Kraft Foods. Pershing
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1
Kraft Foods
PF Kraft
f Investment thesis
Market Cap: Attractively priced business standalone…
~$49bn
…with a transformative event, catalyzing margin
improvement and leading to earnings accretion and
multiple re-rating
“Pro Forma Kraft/Cadbury” (or “PF Kraft”) currently
trades at under 10x 2012 EPS
Assumes GBP / USD=
1.60 throughout
presentation
2
Cadbury: Great Asset at a
Good Price
Cadbury is an Attractive Asset
f These investments are currently pressuring Cadbury margins, but will lead
to margin improvement and strong organic growth
f Kraft should be the beneficiary of these investments, given the timing of its
hostile takeover
5
Kraft is Paying an Attractive Price for Cadbury
Based on the headline offer of 8.40 GBP, Kraft is paying 14x 2009E
EPS and under 12x 2011E EPS for Cadbury, inclusive of $675mm of
run-rate synergies (less than 7% of CBRY sales)
6
Kraft Standalone: Significant
Margin Opportunity
Kraft (Standalone)
United States: ~50% rev
Cheese
America
(Cookies,
Cheese, 18.0% crackers,
f More than 50% from categories chocolate)
where its marketplace position is Beverages,
20.0%
twice the size of nearest competitor
10
Historical EBIT Margins
Kraft’s EBIT margins have dramatically fallen from 21% in ’02 to a low of 12.8%
in ’08 due to misplaced investments, lack of marketing, pricing erosion,
required catch-up R&D and commodity headwinds
25.0 %
21.0 %
19.1 %
20.0 %
16.4 %
15.3 % 15.0 %
14.8 %
15.0 % 14.3 %
13.2 % 13.6 %
12.8 %
10.0 %
5.0 %
0.0 %
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010e 2011e
Kraft currently has low EBIT margins relative to its peers, despite
being the largest food company in North America and participating in
high gross margin categories
20.0 %
17.7 % 17.7 % 17.5 %
18.0 % 16.4 %
16.2 % 15.6 % 14.9 %
16.0 % 14.8 % 14.6 %
13.6 % 13.5 %
14.0 %
12.0 %
10.0 %
8.0 %
6.0 %
4.0 %
2.0 %
0.0 %
Kraft Cadbury General J.M. Campbell Kellogg Hershey Danone Heinz Unilever Nestlé
Mills Smucker
Food &
Beverage
Note: Kraft, Cadbury and Nestle are based on Pershing estimates for 2009, except Nestle, which is LTM. Nestle data is food and beverage only (ex-Alcon) adjusted to deduct trade
promotions from revenue (assumed 12% of revenue) to be comparable. Campbell, Heinz, Unilever, Danone and Kellogg’s are per Wall Street research and are LTM, except Unilever,
Danone, and Kellogg’s which are 2009e. General Mills is per company filings and excludes mark-to-market gains / losses on commodities derivatives and is LTM. J.M. Smucker is PF for
Folger’s, so 2010e margin used, per Wall Street research.
12
Appropriate EBIT Margins Based on Categories
Estimate for
Based on our global Est. % of Appropriate
category analysis, Global category Global Revenues EBIT margin
KFT should have Snacks (see memo) 38% 16%
EBIT margins in the Beverages (see memo) 20% 20%
(1)
mid-to-high teens Meals 15% 11%
(2)
Cheese 18% 16%
(3)
Grocery 10% 32%
Less corporate (0.8)%
Appropriate KFT EBIT Margin 17%
We believe that KFT current 2009E EBIT Margin (1) 13.6%
Snacks and
Memo:
Beverages are the Appropriate
Est. Revenue Mix EBIT Margin Reference Margin
categories where Snacks
Cookies / crackers 75% 17% Kellogg's consolidated margins (including G&A)
under-earning Beverages
Coffee 50% 22% Folgers (pre G&A, before Smuckers acquisition)
RTD 25% 12% Typical RTD
Powders 25% 35% Dr. Pepper concentrate / Coca Cola consolidated
Based on peers 23%
Discount for KFT 20%
Kraft currently has the lowest gross margins among its peer group,
despite having #1 market share in 80% of its categories and
participating in high margin categories like cookies, crackers,
confectionary, beverages and condiments
60.0 %
54.0 %
47.1 %
50.0 %
45.6 %
43.1 %
41.1 %
38.8 % 38.1 % 37.5 %
40.0 %
35.0 % 35.3 %
30.0 %
20.0 %
10.0 %
0.0 %
Kraft Danone Unilever Cadbury Kellogg Campbell General Mills Hershey J.M. Smucker Heinz
Note: Kraft and Cadbury are based on Pershing estimates for 2009e. Campbell, Heinz, Unilever, Danone and Kellogg’s are per Wall Street research and are LTM, except Unilever, Danone,
and Kellogg’s which are 2009e. General Mills is per company filings and excludes mark-to-market gains / losses on commodities derivatives and is LTM. J.M. Smucker is PF for Folger’s,
so 2010e used, per Wall Street research.
14
KFT Gross Margins Should be Closer to 40%
Appropriate
Gross % of Revenue % Market
Margin Segment Total Share
U.S. Beverages 8%
Powdered
Coffee
Ready to Drink
65%
35%
20%
25%
50%
25%
52%
29%
59%
Based on our estimates for
Total Segment 38% 100% appropriate gross margins in
U.S. Cheese 9%
Sandwich, Recipe & Grated
Natural
30%
30%
45%
20%
30-40%
22%
each of Kraft’s food categories,
Cultured & Snacking
Cream Cheese
30%
30%
15%
20%
25%
66% Kraft should have gross margins
Total Segment 30% 100%
U.S. Grocery 9%
Dressings
Desserts
40%
45%
30%
20%
35%
65%
Kraft’s 2009E gross margin is
Mac & Cheese 40% 20%
Condiments and Other 50% 30% only 35%, about 300bps below
Total Segment 44% 100%
U.S. Snacks 13 %
appropriate levels
Biscuits 45% 80%
Europe 21 %
Biscuits 40% 25% 22%
Chocolate 40% 25% 13%
Local Categories 40% 25%
Cheese 30% 12% 40%
Coffee 35% 12% 22%
Total Segment 38%
16
Opportunity: Europe EBIT Margins
Illustrative Opportunity:
LTM Kraft Europe EBIT Margins 9.4%
Increase in Europe margins to 14% 460bps
Kraft Europe as % of Total KFT Revenues 21.4%
Increase in KFT Consolidated EBIT Margins 98bps
17
Margin Opportunity: Adding it Up
Opportunity: Commentary
G&A / overhead savings 150bps Predominantly from European business overhead cuts
Less: Incremental marketing spend -100bps ~8% of sales as A&P spend, at high end of big cap food group
Less: Commodity cushion -170bps Commodity increases of ~4% that are not offset by price
18
Pro Forma KFT + Cadbury:
A Great Company
Pro Forma Kraft is a Great Company and Stock
20
PF Kraft: Leading Global Confectionary Business
21
PF Kraft: Improved Business Quality
Pro Forma for Cadbury acquisition and sale of N.A. Frozen Pizza business. 22
Confectionary, Cookies and Crackers
Based on Pershing Square’s estimates. Developing markets includes Australia and Japan.
Percentages may not add up due to rounding.
25
Enhanced Go-To-Market Strategy
27
PF Kraft is Significantly Undervalued
f Based on our estimates, Kraft trades at less than ~10x 2012 EPS(1)
f You pay under 15x LTM EPS and you get, for free:
3 $675mm of cost saving synergies (>10% of Pro Forma EBIT)
3 Revenues synergies
3 Kraft standalone margin opportunity (margins up 150bps to ~15%)
3 Cadbury margin opportunity (margins up 150bps to ~15%)
3 Multiple expansion (better business, faster growth)
3 4% dividend yield, while you wait…
(1) Based on recurring earnings per share and includes the estimated non-cash impact of 7 cents / share of step-up amortization as a
result of the transaction. Kraft has not yet determined the step up in amortization.
28
What Is it Worth?
Low High
(1)
2012 EPS $2.70 $2.90
(1) Based on recurring earnings per share and includes the estimated non-cash impact of 7 cents / share of step-up amortization as a
result of the transaction. Kraft has not yet determined the step up in amortization.
29
Why We Think the Stock is Not Appreciated
30