J 1553-2712 2011 01122 X PDF
J 1553-2712 2011 01122 X PDF
J 1553-2712 2011 01122 X PDF
Abstract
Objectives: The objective was to compare the validity of an existing informally structured triage system
with the Emergency Severity Index (ESI) and the Manchester Triage System (MTS).
Methods: A total of 900 patients were prospectively triaged by six trained triage nurses using the three
systems. Triage ratings of 421 (48%) patients treated only by emergency department (ED) physicians
were compared with a reference standard determined by an expert panel. The percentage of undertriage,
the sensitivity, and the specificity for each urgency level were calculated. The relationship between
urgency level, resource use, hospitalization, and length of stay (LOS) in the 900 triaged patients was
determined.
Results: The percentage of undertriage using the ESI (86 of 421; 20%) was significantly higher than in
the MTS (48 of 421; 11%). When combining urgency levels 4 and 5, the percentage of undertriage was
8% for the informally structured system (ISS), 14% for the ESI, and 11% for the MTS. In all three systems, sensitivity for all urgency levels was low, but specificity for levels 1 and 2 was high (>92%). Sensitivity and specificity were significantly different between ESI and MTS only in urgency level 4. In all 900
patients triaged, urgency levels across all systems were associated with significantly increased resource
use, hospitalization rate, and LOS.
Conclusions: All three triage systems appear to be equally valid. Although the ESI showed the highest
percentage of undertriage and the ISS the lowest, it seems preferable to use a verifiable, formally
structured triage system.
ACADEMIC EMERGENCY MEDICINE 2011; 18:822829 2011 by the Society for Academic Emergency
Medicine
822
ISSN 1069-6563
PII ISSN 1069-6563583
complaint determines which flow chart should be followed. Each flow chart is based on a five-step decision
process that uses discriminators at each step to assign
patients to one of the five triage categories.6 A color
indicates the level of urgency and its associated
maximum waiting time: red = immediate care by a
physician; orange = 10 minutes; yellow = 60 minutes;
green = 2 hours; and blue = 4 hours. Interobserver and
intraobserver agreement on the MTS has been found to
be substantial to excellent.7,8 Under- and overtriage as
determined by an expert panel ranges from 5% to
25%.7,8 Validity has been tested in several studies, however, only in children and in patients with chest pain.911
Therefore, the overall validity of MTS in daily clinical
practice is not supported in the literature.5
The ESI system was developed in Boston, Massachusetts. This system uses one algorithm, with ratings
ranging from level 1 (the most acutely ill patients) to
level 5 (the least resource-intensive patients). The triage
nurse estimates the number of resources needed to discharge the patient from the ED in those patients who
do not meet ESI level 1 or 2 criteria.12 The ESI system
is valid for both children and adults and has a high
interobserver agreement.8,13,14 When triage urgency
levels estimated by nurses were compared with the real
urgency level, version 3 of the ESI had an undertriage
rate of 9% and an overtriage rate of 11%.14
The two triage systems have been designed for different purposes. The MTS is meant to place patients in
order of priority and to assure that patients do not have
to wait longer than is safe, given the presenting complaint. The ESI integrates acuity and estimated resource
consumption to determine treatment priority. Both ESI
and MTS seem to be useful, but to date no studies have
compared the validity of these systems within the same
patient mix, nor to an informally structured triage practice. We defined validity as the agreement of classifications by the triage systems with a reference standard
and with actual resource utilization. In this prospective
observational comparative study, we determined and
compared the percentage of undertriage; the validity of
both structured triage systems and a local informally
structured triage system (ISS); and their relation to
resource use, hospital admission, and length of stay
(LOS).
METHODS
Study Design
This was a prospective, single-center, observational
comparative study combined with a retrospective chart
review to determine the validity of the ISS, the ESI, and
the MTS triage systems. The study was explained to
patients, and all gave oral informed consent. Our local
institutional review board waived the requirement for
written informed consent.
Study Setting and Population
This study was conducted between November and
December 2005 at an urban tertiary care academic
teaching hospital with a Level I trauma center. The ED
sees almost 31,000 patients annually, of whom approximately 1,000 (3%) are seen in a trauma room. Almost
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Table 1
Patient Characteristics
All Triaged
Patients
(n = 900)
Sex
Male
Female
Age, yr
Mean (SD)
Median (range)
IQR (2575)
Age distribution, yr
<15
1530
3045
4560
6075
>75
Mode of arrival
Private vehicle
or otherwise
By ambulance
Mode of referral
Self-referral
Only seen by EP
(ED physician)
Referred (by EP)
to specialist
Referred by GP
or otherwise
Number of
admissions
Number of patients
triaged out of
hospital during
measurement period
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475 (53)
421 (47)
37 (23)
36 (0102)
1953
163
212
207
170
82
61
(18)
(24)
(23)
(19)
(9)
(7)
Patients Only
Seen by ED
Physician (n = 428)
243 (57)
185 (43)
31 (18)
30 (079)
1744
81
134
116
69
20
4
(19)
(32)
(27)
(16)
(5)
(1)
784 (87)
407 (96)
115 (13)
17 (4)
664 (74)
428
236
231 (26)
Reference Standard
Of 890 patients, a total of 428 (48%) were treated by an
ED physician only. Seven forms were incomplete and
were therefore excluded. Statistically significant differences were found in the percentages of under- and
overtriage when all systems were compared as fourlevel systems. The percentages of undertriage were
8.3% for the ISS, 13.5% for ESI, and 11.2% for the
MTS. The highest agreement (64.8%) with the reference
standard was found for the ISS, while the highest
overtriage (29%) was found for the MTS (Figure 5).
When comparing ESI and MTS as five-level systems
with the reference standard, agreement decreased
and overtriage increased, while significant differences
remained.
Details of the sensitivity, specificity, predictive value,
and likelihood ratio for each of the five urgency levels
are shown in Table 2. Overall, sensitivity and positive
predictive values were low for all urgency levels in each
system, whereas specificity and negative predictive
values were over 95% in urgency levels 1 and 2. The fivelevel ESI and MTS systems showed significant differences in sensitivity and specificity only in urgency level 4.
162 (18)
DISCUSSION
27
LOS
In 890 patients, the length of ED stay was strongly
associated with the urgency level in all triage systems.
Median LOS per urgency level and triage system is
Figure 1. Distribution of the urgency (Urg) levels for the ISS, the ESI, and the MTS. Urg 1 = patients could not wait (ISS), level 1
(ESI), red (MTS). Urg 2 = patients could wait up to 15 minutes (ISS), level 2 (ESI), orange (MTS). Urg 3 = patients could wait up to
1 hour (ISS), level 3 (ESI), yellow (MTS). Urg 4 = level 4 (ESI), green (MTS). Urg 5 = patients could wait up to 4 hours (ISS), level 5
(ESI), blue (MTS). ESI = Emergency Severity Index; ISS = informally structured system; MTS = Manchester Triage System.
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Figure 2. Mean resource use by urgency level and triage system in 890 patients. Spearmans correlation coefficient: ISS = 0.425;
ESI = 0.531; and MTS = 0.374; p<0.001. ESI = Emergency Severity Index; ISS = informally structured system; MTS = Manchester
Triage System; Urg = urgency level.
Figure 3. Patient admission rates by urgency (Urg) level and triage system in 890 patients. Spearmans correlation coefficient:
ISS = 0.396; ESI = 0.379; MTS = 0.398; p < 0.001. ESI = Emergency Severity Index; ISS = informally structured system; MTS = Manchester Triage System.
It is difficult to say which level of sensitivity or specificity is acceptable to conclude that a certain triage system is safe. To reach a high sensitivity (i.e., an
acceptable degree of undertriage), the specificity will be
so low that the potential for saving resources would be
marginal at best.
In our study we found that the ESI had a much lower
sensitivity than the 75% found by Travers et al.4 They
compared ratings by the triage nurse with the triage
decisions taken by two reviewers. These decisions were
based on the original triage notes. Also, we found the
sensitivity of the MTS to be lower than has been
reported in previous studies.9,1517 These differences
may be explained by the fact that most of these studies
were performed in selected patient groups.9,15,16 In contrast, we studied the systems validity in patients treated
by an ED physician only, of whom only 30 (7%) were
triaged to urgency levels 1 or 2.
Using both formally structured systems, the majority
of patients deemed by the expert panel to belong in
urgency levels 1 or 2 were undertriaged. This difference
between the reference standard and the formally structured systems may be due to the fact that the expert
panel of ED physicians knew what happened to the
patient. Therefore, they may have retrospectively evaluated such patients as being less (or more) urgent than
they would otherwise have done using a formally
structured system and before knowing the outcome.
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Figure 4. Median LOS by urgency level and triage system in 890 patients. Pearsons correlation: ISS = 0.264; ESI = 0.339; MTS =
0.260; p < 0.001. ESI = Emergency Severity Index; ISS = informally structured system; LOS = length of stay; MTS = Manchester
Triage System.
Figure 5. Agreement with the reference standard per triage system (n = 421). Reference standard determined retrospectively by an
expert panel using all available information including the final diagnosis. ESI 4-level = ESI as a four-level system; levels 4 and 5
combined. MTS 4-level = MTS as a four-level system; levels green and blue combined. Spearmans correlation coefficient with the
reference standard: ISS = 0.466; ESI 4-level = 0.276; and MTS 4-level = 0.272; p<0.001. ESI 5-level and MTS 5-level = ESI and MTS
as five-level systems. Spearmans correlation coefficient with the reference standard: ESI 5-level = 0.172; MTS 5-level = 0.240;
p<0.001. ESI = Emergency Severity Index; ISS = informally structured system as a four-level system; MTS = Manchester Triage
System.
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Table 2
Sensitivity, Specificity, Predictive Value, and Likelihood Ratio for Each Cutoff Point of the ISS, ESI, and MTS Triage Systems (n = 421)
Sensitivity
(95% CI)
Cutoff
Urgency
ISS
ESI
MTS
Urgency
ISS
ESI
MTS
Urgency
ISS
ESI
MTS
Urgency
ISS
ESI
MTS
Specificity
(95% CI)
PPV
(95% CI)
NPV
(95% CI)
LR+
(95% CI)
LR
(95% CI)
40 (585)
NA
17 (464)
98 (9799)
100 (99100)
100 (99100)
20 (356)
NA
100
99 (98100)
99 (97100)
99 (97100)
20.8 (1.7142)
NA
NA
0.61 (0.150.98)
1 (0.51)
0.83 (0.40.97)
47 (2965)
36 (2055)
34 (1953)
92 (8994)
95 (9397)
95 (9397)
32 (1947)
40 (2359)
37 (2056)
95 (9397)
95 (9297)
95 (9297)
5.7 (2.611.5)
7.8 (2.819.6)
7.0 (2.517.7)
0.58 (0.370.8)
0.67 (0.460.86)
0.69 (0.480.88)
76 (6585)
50 (3961)
60 (4971)
73 (6878)
74 (6978)
66 (6171)
41 (3349)
32 (2440)
30 (2338)
93 (8995)
86 (8290)
87 (8391)
2.8 (2.13.8)
1.9 (1.32.8)
1.8 (1.32.5)
0.33 (0.200.51)
0.68 (0.500.89)
0.60 (0.410.83)
NA
63 (5671)x
98 (94100)x
NA
44 (3850)*
2 (15)*
NA
36 (3042)
34 (2939)
NA
70 (6377)
67 (3093)
NA
1.1 (0.91.4)
1.0 (0.91.0)
NA
0.84 (0.581.17)
0.97 (0.097.50)
ESI = Emergency Severity Index; ISS = Informally structured system; LR = likelihood ratio; MTS = Manchester Triage System;
NA = not applicable; NPV = negative predictive value; PPV = positive predictive value.
*p < 0.05.
rates. The predictions of resource use, hospital admission, and LOS per urgency level in each of the three triage systems were consistent with research from the
ESI group in Boston, as well as other results from
within the Netherlands.13,1820
LIMITATIONS
The limitations of our study design were first, the lack
of standardized criteria for determining the reference
standard. However, even when working with explicit
criteria, a high rate of disagreement among experts has
been demonstrated.21 For the purpose of our study, we
tried to compensate for possible disagreement by forming a panel of seven experienced ED physicians and settling for a majority consensus. As they did not see the
patients, the expert panel had to rely on a verbal
description. On the other hand, having the diagnosis
and diagnostic test results offered the opportunity to
identify potentially urgent patients who were not identified by the triage systems.22
Second, for pragmatic reasons we chose to triage at
random on different days and between 12 noon and 10
PM. The distribution of urgency levels within this time
frame might differ from other times of the day. However, patient age, sex, and types of condition were similar to a consecutive series of patients in previous
research in our department. Additionally, the distribution of urgency levels in our center (according to the
ESI and the MTS classifications) was consistent with
previous Dutch reports on both systems.18,23
Third, the fact that three triage systems were
applied sequentially in every patient might have
biased the results. If the MTS, which was always used
last, had received the least attention, it would have
shown the lowest validity, but this was not the case.
Hence, we do not think this has been an important
source of bias.
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