March 2014 Volume 10 Issue 3

What Really Wins Money

An Independent Review of Tipsters and Betting Systems

Hi and welcome to Marchs What Really Wins

Money. I hope you enjoyed the Cheltenham Festival
and made use of the tips and strategies from Februarys newsletter.
On to this month, and I begin by raiding my DRT
vaults for an excellent way of backing a football
team at odds of 25/1 or bigger, and coming out on
top! It really is such an easy strategy to implement.
Lucy Collins is coming to the end of her excellent
introduction into the world of betting, courtesy of her
The 7 Pillars of Successful Punting. We are on Pillar
Six this month, which offers an introduction into the
world of sports arbitrage its positives and negatives.
The Statman has uncovered an excellent lay system,
which takes advantage of the statistically poor
performance of placed horses in handicap races.
This is a strategy I will be following with interest at
www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk.
With the Grand National upon us in April, I show
you the six factors you need to have in mind, in order
to shortlist the horses most likely to run well.
The Patriarch offers his Grand National fancy, as
well as an excellent Flat racing betting strategy with
an exciting number of big-priced winners.
INSIDE THIS ISSUE:
The 7 Pillars of Successful Punting (part 6)
Intelligent Sports Arbitrage ........................................ 4

The Statman Presents

How to Make Great Profits from Placed Horses in

Handicap Races ............................................................ 6

The Patriarch Presents

Find Big Priced Winners During The Flat Season With

This Proven Handicap System ................................... 10

With my Home-Grown systems this month, I take

a look at how more risk can lead to greater reward,
with a number of interesting staking plans from
www.stakingmachine.com, which really enhance
profits.
We end with a quick round-up of whats hot and
whats not with the Systems and Tipsters
Update. There are more reviews to be found at
www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk.
Now lets raid those DRT vaults for getting results
from those big odds
Football trading

Introducing The HSA

Technique: An Easy to Use
Low-Risk High-Reward
Football Trading Method

run a football research and live trading service

called Delay-React-Trade or DRT for short.

The purpose of this service is a simple one

We look to create great betting and trading opportunities in in-play football matches at www.betfair.
com, which are characterised as low-risk and highreward. In essence, we look to back teams and
outcomes at high odds, and we look to lay teams and
outcomes at short odds.
Heres an excellent trading technique which follows
this low-risk/high-reward ethos, which you can put to
use immediately (or join DRT www.canonburypub
lishing.com/DRT/recommended and let me do all
of the work for you!).

Reviews:

I call it the HSA Trading Technique (Half-time

Score Away)

Reviews:

The rules are simple to follow and implement.

Home-Grown Betting Systems Update .................... 12

Systems and Tipsters Update .................................... 16

Step 1 Make sure you are using football matches

please turn over...

whose betting markets go in-play at www.betfair.

com. The coupon will be entitled Football In-Play
Coupon:

This is the Algarve Cup, a womens international

football tournament, and this match is between USA
ladies and Denmark ladies.
Background The USA are 1.24 shots to win this
match, i.e. they are extremely short-priced favourites
indeed. This would be an ideal scenario for this football trading strategy (any odds-on team pre-match
would be ideal). An odds-on team at www.betfair.
com is a team whose odds are 2.00 (decimal odds) or
below at kick-off.
The match How did this match progress? Not too
good for the Americans, it would seem. I think they
must have picked Barbara Bush to play as a goalkeeper, as the Denmark ladies lead 0-3 at half-time:

We need the betting markets to go in-play.

Odds change when events change (goals, red cards,
even a lack of goals) as a football match is being
played.
Step 2 Wait for the match to go in-play and look
out for the following scorelines: either a 0-2 or a 0-3
to the away side. We want this scoreline to occur
early in the match, preferably before half-time.

The scoreline in brackets is the half-time scoreline

(0-3 to Denmark Women). I have blanked out the
full-time scoreline.

A 0-2 or 0-3 scoreline at half-time, to the away side,

provides us with an ideal opportunity for a low-risk
high-reward trade.

My interest is piqued at this stage! The USA Women,

along with the German Women, are the international
powerhouses of ladies football. A 0-3 scoreline at
half-time affords the USA a half-time team-talk in
order to change tactics, and a further 45 minutes in
which to remedy the situation.

Why? Home teams have a distinct advantage. The

support is naturally on their side. The referees tend
to be subconsciously biased in favour of the home
team, simply down to the voice of the home crowd.
And if the home side was the original favourite in the
match, then so much the better. This 0-2/0-3 scoreline is a shock, and an early shock.

The USA Women, 1.24 shots pre-match, are currently backable at odds of 27 at half-time. I decide to
back the USA Women with 25 and hope they act as
a top womens international side should act!

But the match is not over!

As the scoreline has appeared so early, this provides
ample time for the home team to regain parity. A
half-time break can also bring with it great advantages for a comeback a change in tactics, the
old hairdryer treatment from the manager, and a
renewed vigour to fight back for the second half in
front of home supporters.

How does the second half progress? The USA ladies

score first in the second half to bring the scoreline
back to 1-3:

Step 3 Back the home team (losing 0-2 or 0-3)

at enhanced odds. The odds youll be getting for a
home team when 0-2 or 0-3 down is far higher than
youll have gotten (quite obviously) pre-match.

USA womens odds were 27 at half-time. In reaction

to scoring first in the second half, their odds reduce
and provide me with the first profitable opportunity

Heres a very recent example, before I share with you

some other examples in the recent past

In this article, I have taken screenshots from Fairbot,

which is Betfair Trading Software. This strategy can

It is my intention to be as accurate in fact, detail and comment as possible. However, the publishers and their representatives cannot be held
responsible for any error in detail, accuracy or judgement whatsoever. What Really Wins Money is sold on this understanding. ISSN: 1741 9018
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Registered in England No. 4765425 Vat Reg No. 811 5700 64 Copyright What Really Wins Money 2014

For more great money-making ideas, reviews and blueprints go to www.WhatReallyWinsMoney.co.uk

also be used at www.betfair.com using their cash

out facility. Fairbots greening up function provides an ideal tool for illustrating the profit potential
after each goal has been scored in the second half.

ters not necessarily the final score.

If you look below, youll see how the match progressed from beginning to end:

Having backed USA Women at odds of 27, their odds

reduce in reaction to the goal. The figure in the green
box represents the profit that can be achieved if I
were to trade out of my enhanced bet now (19.08). I
make a decision that there are 38 minutes remaining
in this second half, and USA Women are more than
capable of a fight back.

In hindsight, it was fortunate that I profited when

the scoreline was 3-4, instead of holding out for a
potential bigger profit it had potential but was a
profit not yet realised. This is an important lesson if
you consider trading.

The Denmark Women do not quite read the script in

this match, and score next, making the scoreline 1-4

Other examples This is not an isolated incident.

There have been two other matches recently which
followed this template to the letter, only on this occasion the teams were 0-2 down early on in the match
and were leading during the match, or actually won!

Lets fast-forward to the critical scoreline in this

second half: the scoreline which will enable a good
trading profit

Look at the match below, featuring Hibernian FC and

Motherwell. It meets all of the criteria I look for, for
this niche trading strategy:
Hibernian are playing at home.
The away side Motherwell take an early 0-2
lead.
Hibernian score the next goal and two more in
the second half.
Note in this example that we do not necessarily wait
until half-time before backing the home team at
enhanced odds. The key here is that the home side
are 0-2 or 0-3 down early in the match.

Its the 68th minute of the game. The USA Women

have scored three goals to the Danish Womens four
goals.
It is here that my 25 half-time bet can be turned into
a decent profit (despite there being 22 minutes of this
match remaining).
How much can I make at this stage of the match?
Lets return to the Fairbot greening up box, which
shows any profit/loss at each stage of the match:

Remember that I said it is what happens as a match is

in-play that is important to us, and not necessarily the
final score. In this example, Hibernian actually led
the match 3-2. It was at this stage that the maximum
profit could have been extracted from this trade, as
Hibernians odds would have reduced dramatically
from their position earlier in the match when they
were losing 0-2.

With the fight-back almost complete, I can now

secure a profit of 110. The market has reacted to the
USA Women closing the gap to one goal by shortening their half-time odds of 27 all the way down to 4.8.
What was the final score? When you trade in-play it
is what happens during a football match which mat-

please turn over...

And on the same day...

React-Trade (DRT) football trading service at:

www.canonburypublishing.com/DRT/recommended.

We travel to the French Ligue 1 for this particular

example of the strategy in action, and in this case, a
team we could have backed at odds of 25, who go on
to win the match. Tell me: how often do you get the
chance to back a team at odds of 25 (24/1) and be in
with an excellent chance of profiting fully?

The key to my trading success is to look for low-riskhigh-reward trades such as the HSA trading strategy
showcased here.
The 7 Pillars of Successful Punting (part 6)

This match follows the criteria perfectly:

Intelligent Sports
Arbitrage

Toulouse are the home team, and they go 0-2

down to away team Stade Reims at half-time.
Back Toulouse at half-time at odds of 25. Look
at the goal progression below. I personally traded
out when the scoreline reached 2-2 and Toulouses odds reduced to 4.4 from a high of 25.
Why didnt I wait to see if they could win? Quite
simply, I cannot predict the future. Why didnt I
wait to see if the USA Women would win, when
they were 3-4 up? In that match they actually
went on to lose the match. This could quite
easily be the scenario with Toulouse.
Here is the scoreline for this match:

What is sports arbitrage?

Sports arbitrage (or arbing) is the practice of placing simultaneous bets on all possible outcomes in an
event at odds which guarantee a profit.
The key determinant for arbing success is to find,
say, a two-team/player event, where the odds for one
player and the odds for the other player, when translated into a percentage, are less than 100%.
Heres a simple example
We find a tennis match, where Player A is priced at
odds of evens with Bookmaker X.
At Bookmaker Y, Player B is priced at odds of 11/10.
Is there an arbing opportunity here? You bet there is.
Follow these simple steps
Step 1 Translate the odds into percentages. The
Internet has charts such as this one found at www.
horseracing-and-bettingsystems.com/betting-oddspercentage-table.html, which will do this for you.

Bottom line This is an excellent niche. The most

famous example I suppose is that Liverpool Champions League Final when they were trailing 0-3 to AC
Milan.

Alternately, follow this simple equation. Lets look at

Player A, who has been priced at evens. Evens is also
1/1 in fractional terms.

Use the following checklist to find yourself teams at

odds of as high as 25/1 who have an excellent chance
of profiting for you:
Make sure any match you monitor is on the Betfair In-play football coupon.
The home team should not be an obvious outsider (ideally odds-on as the USA Women and
Toulouse were).
The away team should take an early 0-2 or 0-3
lead. By early, I generally mean before half-time
or at half-time.
Back the home team at enhanced odds.
Trade out for a profit if the home team equalise
or there is a significant enough shift in the odds
to allow a profit.
If you want to see this trading strategy and a number
of other profitable trading strategies making money,
in realtime, please take a trial with my Delay-

We divide the top number in the fraction by the

bottom number. In the case of an evens bet which is
1/1, we divide 1 by 1 and we get 1.
Now add 1 and this becomes 2. We now divide 100
by 2 to get the percentage. Evens, therefore, become
50%.
Lets do this with Player B: 11 divided by 10 is 1.1.
Add 1 = 2.1. Now divide 100 by 2.1.
We get 47.62%.
Step 2 Add up the percentages of the two players.
If that percentage is under 100% you can actually
create a guaranteed profit. In this example, Player As
odds as a percentage is 50%.

Player Bs odds as a percentage is 47.62%. Total

percentage is 97.62%.

For more great money-making ideas, reviews and blueprints go to www.WhatReallyWinsMoney.co.uk

Step 3 Profit from the arb by backing each player

with that percentage of your betting back. Using
100 as an example, we could back Player A for 50
at evens, and Player B for 47.62 at 11/10.

one of 60, to encourage your friendly bookie to

regard the first punt as a keying error.
Dont panic if you have an account closed.
There are a lot of bookmakers on the Internet:
probably far more than any of us realise, so
it doesnt matter that much if you have a few
accounts closed along the way. Plus there are new
ones opening all the time (Winner.com; Betfairs
sportsbook; Vernons sportsbook; Betbright, etc).
Remember to check that any obscure bookies you use are safe. I always do a quick check
on the Bookmakers Review Red List (www.
bookmakersreview.com/red-list).
Consider using Skrill (www.skrill.com),
instead of bankcards. This is actually good for
both you and your bookie, as he should incur
lower banking charges, and you will turn over
your funds far more quickly which is, as we
have seen, essential to making arbitrage pay.
Consider cross-market arbs. They are much harder
for bookies to spot, and therefore less likely to attract
account limiting action (e.g. bet on the 0-0 outcome
in the Correct Score market, and on the Over 0.5
Goals option in the Goals market).

Regardless of which player wins, we will win 10097.62 or 2.38. This is a simplistic look at basic
arbing in a two-team/player event.
There are obvious objections to sports arbing. Lets
take a look at them
1. It can involve a lot of effort for very modest
returns.
Firstly, you have to put a price on your time...
A 3% return on a 100 arb buys you 3. Youll need
a lot of those to pay the rent, and probably dont
want to spend half an hour finding them. So automation rapidly becomes a necessity.
You also need to bet with decent chunks of cash if
youre going to make any real money at this. Double
your stakes and you double your income, all in the
same amount of time. So unless youre prepared to
work with a substantial bankroll, you may find your
progress is limited (though equally, there is no need
to panic unduly about this one, as usually very little,
if any, of your bankroll will actually be at risk. In
effect, what we are talking about is the need to set
aside working capital).

3. You will eventually fall foul of palpable error

clauses.
Palpable error clauses can be exasperating.
If you dont know, these are your bookmakers getout-of-jail cards, for when they have made a transcription error or similar, and are on the hook for a
bigger payout than they feel is fair. They can even
revoke a bet after the sports event in question has
finished, if they deem that the price they gave was
palpably wrong!

Secondly, you have to turn over your money quickly.

So setting up arbs several weeks in advance makes
no sense. You need events that are going to take
place sometime soon, preferably today, and ideally
within the next half hour! Which brings me back to
automation (about which theres more below), and to
the need for timely information.

This may sound a bit scary, but the bottom line is that
palpable errors need not be a problem if you use your
common sense. Basically, if a particular price looks
too good to be true (i.e. massively out of line from
what other bookies are offering on the same event),
its OK: take the bet provided you then contact your
bookie for confirmation in writing before laying it
off. If it is a palp, hell tell you at this point, and
youll get money back, without any downside.

2. The bookies will shut you down.

Well, yes possibly, but all successful punters struggle
with this one, not just arbers. And there is a lot you
can do to manage your bookie relationships.
Ive had a lot to say on this subject in the past, so
shall just add/repeat the following here:
Remember to smooth your bets (i.e. never use
stakes with precise amounts of pence), and try to
focus on (reasonably) mainstream sports events.
There is no more sure-fire way of getting your
account closed than betting 47.23 on Madagascan U-17 ladies darts.
Ideally, ensure your stakes end in a 0 or a 5. If
you must bet 62 to make the sums work, place
an initial bet of 2, then follow up with a second

For a full discussion of palpable errors, read my

case study on the subject at www.laybackandgetrich.
com/sports-arbitrage-and-the-risk-of-palpable-errorclauses.

Automation which products to use

5

My recipe for sports arbitrage success contains four

ingredients:
please turn over...

 Automation
Timeliness
Working capital
A wide range of bookies

cover more sports than just horse racing.

I had a look at Mikes service, and came away with
mixed feelings; but also found plenty of my readers
keen to jump to his defence. Without a doubt, its
extremely good value when compared to premium
products like Mathbet, but then so it should be, as
it is quite a bit less ambitious. It is backed up by
tremendous customer service, as well as the usual
ClickBank warranty, so you cannot lose by giving it
a spin. But its probably best regarded as a helpful
(and cheap!) introduction, rather than the very last
word on the subject.

Only the third one (money!) is entirely dependent on

you! The other three can all be comfortably supplied
by a number of online providers in what has rapidly
become a pretty mature market.
My favourite general arbitrage service, by some distance, is Mathbet (www.mathbet.com). Its not cheap,
but is very good value, and covers a wide range of
bookies and markets.

Summary

It produces lots of arbs that are (usually) still there

by the time you click through to the bookies site,
and performed well in trials on my site (with around
80% of arbs still being available on the bookmakers
websites by the time we arrived see www.laybackandgetrich.com/mathbet-trial-conclusion).

It does require quite a patient, organised soul to

work through a list of arbs, then go and place all the
required bets on a swathe of bookmaker websites that
all look and work differently.
Whether the pay-off of risk-free, tax-free income is
enough to justify the hassle is a personal decision,
but a trial period will undoubtedly help you make up
your mind.

Mathbet also supplies a lot of cross-market arbs,

which are particularly bookie-friendly, as we have
seen. It is also generally easy to understand and use,
and will even automatically log you into most (but
not all) bookie sites, so helping speed things up.

Sports arbitrage is undoubtedly one of the easiest

ways of making tax-free cash open to anyone with a
computer, and remarkably, the products you need are
only a click away. I strongly recommend you consider it, either as an income streamin its own right, or
which I prefer as a way of building or repairing
my betting bank.

Another appealing option and quite astonishing

value is new entrant, Spymare (www.spymare.
com). Spymare concentrates on back-and-lay arbitrage on horse racing only, but finds some incredible value arbs. Again, it has performed very well in
live trials on my site, even convincing my triallist to
abandon his previous cynicism about arbitrage! (See
www.laybackandgetrich.com/spymare-review-trialconclusion).

And that about wraps up Pillar Six! I will be back

next time with my seventh and final pillar, mysteriously entitled DashBoard Betting!
Lucy Collins
www.laybackandgetrich.com

Unlike many such products, Spymare accesses

bookie sites directly, rather than simply scraping all
its data from odds comparison sites. This makes its
arbs much more up to date and valuable.

The Statman Presents

How to Make Great

Profits from Placed Horses
in Handicap Races

A further advantage with Spymare and indeed with

any horse-racing arbitrage solution is that it pretty
much stops you worrying about palpable errors. They
are extremely rare on horse-racing markets, as the
latter are so efficient and move so fast.

hanks to a What Really Wins Money reader who

contacted me recently and asked me to look into
a particular statistical angle. There are at least two
stats geeks out there, Im glad to see!

Spymare even comes with a three days free option

to allow you time to make enough money to buy the
product!
A third option thats also good value is to try Mike
Cruickshanks Arb Alarm service yes, he of Bonus
Bagging fame. Like Spymare, Mike focuses on backand-lay arbs meaning one half of your arb will
almost certainly be placed at Betfair but he does

The idea is that we are looking for poorly-handicapped horses we can lay: where the official handicapper, who allocates ratings that in turn are made in
to racing weights per race, has the horses firmly in
his or her grip.

For more great money-making ideas, reviews and blueprints go to www.WhatReallyWinsMoney.co.uk

We would have liked to have looked at the last three

runs for each horse, but sadly my software wont
give me that information, so I have amended the
concept as below.

codes (Flat and Jumps).

Qualifiers Winners

Losers

Strike Rate

197,838

17,0061

14.04%

27,777

Profit/Loss
SP
-34,360.71

Profit/Loss
Betfair SP
-7,383.53

This is very definitely not a backing system, I think

youll agree. A 14.04% strike rate over 10 years is
highly consistent (consistently bad!) and leads me to
conclude that we should be looking at laying these
horses on betting exchanges such as www.betfair.
com, rather than backing them.

Laying the foundations

As with all Statman articles, I will be basing my
conclusions upon the last 10 years of statistical data,
or more precisely from 1 January 2003 to date.
Any Betfair Starting Price profit (BSP) assumes Betfairs 5% commission. Any profits and losses quoted
are to a nominal 1 stake.

The one negative with this highly promising laying

idea is the large number of qualifying bets. Perhaps a
betting bot could be employed? It would certainly be
a busy bot.

The stats that sparked my interest!

With prompting from What Really Wins Money
reader Tony, I decided to look at the performances
of horses that had come first, second or third in their
last handicap race, and were contesting a handicap
again in their next race. This is the kind of race we
will be focusing on in this article:

With this large number of qualifiers, I looked at

employing some filters in order to refine my search
and reduce qualifiers to a more manageable number.
In this second phase of my statistical search, I looked
this time at horses that had finished second and third
last time out (I take out the winners on this occasion). Here are the 10-year stats:
Qualifiers Winners

Losers

Strike Rate

126,719

110,427

12.86%

16,292

Profit/Loss
SP
-23,382.32

Profit/Loss
Betfair SP
-6,402.09

The number of qualifiers has been reduced I suppose,

from 197,000 to 126,000; an improvement of sorts.
In order to reduce the number of qualifying horses
further, I decided to look at the individual stats for
horses that finished first last time out, then look at the
individual stats for horses who finished second last
time out, and finally third last time out.

This is a typical race card at www.racingpost.com

and is free to access. I have arrowed the two key
areas. The first thing we must do is ensure the race is
a handicap. Quite simply, the race will have the word
handicap in the title.

First place only last time out:

Qualifiers
71,118

The second arrow on the left is the form column,

which details the form for each horse.

Losers

Strike Rate

11,485

59,683

16.15%

Profit/Loss
SP
-10,977.38

Profit/Loss
Betfair SP
-2,550.42

Second place only last time out:

Truckers Darling would be of interest here. Why?

Lets look at the form in greater detail:

Qualifiers
62,967

Truckers Darlings form reads 209113, which is

read from left to right (latest on the right).

Winners

Losers

Strike Rate

8,784

54,183

13.95%

Profit/Loss
SP
-12,169.36

Profit/Loss
Betfair SP
-4,863.04

Profit/Loss
SP
-11,212.97

Profit/Loss
Betfair SP
-2,258.36

Third place only last time out:

Qualifiers
63,752

In Trucker Darlings last race, he finished third.

Here is the statistical data for the last 10 years for
handicap horses who finished first, second or third
in their last handicap race and are contesting another
handicap race today.
I have looked at the stats for handicaps and nurseries (a nursery is a two-year-old handicap), at all race
courses, over all goings, and distances, and race

Winners

Winners

Losers

Strike Rate

7,508

56,244

11.78%

Quite clearly, the number of qualifying bets is

reduced and the strike rate for third-placed horses
is very poor for backers (but is music to the ears of
layers!). These horses should not be backed should
they?! That is becoming clearer and clearer!

please turn over...

First, second or third favourites all handicaps

Digging a little deeper

We now have the stats for horses that finished first,
second or third in their last race. I next decided to
look at qualifying horses in handicaps on the AllWeather (easily identifiable by the AW after a
courses name at www.racingpost.com) and compare
that with performance on the turf...

Winners

Losers

Strike Rate

6,891

37,808

15.42%

Winners

Losers

Strike Rate

11,467

73,396

13.51%

Profit/Loss
SP
-7,131.65

Profit/Loss
Betfair SP
-1,430.07

Profit/Loss
SP
-14,768.02

Profit/Loss
Betfair SP
-2,970.22

The poor performance figures (for backers) continues.

Having looked at the performance on the Flat, lets
look at how these first, second and third last time out
fared over Hurdles and Chase fences.

Winners

Losers

Strike Rate

4,557

31,028

12.81%

Profit/Loss
SP
-7,597.02

Winners

Losers

Strike Rate

4,862

27,829

14.87%

Profit/Loss
SP
-4,864.02

Strike Rate

11,955

32,583

26.84%

Profit/Loss
SP
-3,879.37

Losers

Strike Rate

Profit/Loss
SP

Profit/Loss
Betfair SP

77,848

17,802

60,046

22.87%

-8,212.05

-3,029.78

20.32%

-12,335.71

-4,052.21

Winners

Losers

1,175
6,815
4,757
3,916
3,576
2,980
2,143
1,273
659
311
115
48
8
1
0

7,289
36,592
28,081
24,037
22,019
19,001
14,102
9,383
5,301
2,592
1,094
437
109
22
2

Strike Rate Profit/Loss

SP
13.88%
-1,627.05
15.7%
-6,110.77
14.49%
-5,268.00
14.01%
-4,869.42
13.97%
-4,320.20
13.56%
-4,015.18
13.19%
-3,017.25
11.95%
-2,475.98
11.06%
-1,449.78
10.71%
-649.84
9.51%
-371.45
9.9%
-110.05
6.84%
-56.25
4.35%
-17.50
0.00%
-2.00

Profit/Loss
Betfair SP
-519.83
-425.54
-1,200.22
-1,527.29
-1,086.93
-1,373.75
-1,010.30
-1,186.76
-622.98
-296.51
-208.77
-35.89
-46.74
-17.54
-2.00

ii. Look for races with the word handicap or

nursery (two-year-old handicaps) in the title.

First or second favourites all handicaps

Winners

84,046

i. Log on to www.racingpost.com or look at the

hard copy or your favourite newspaper (ones
with good racing coverage).

Profit/Loss
Betfair SP
-1,496.67

Qualifiers

21,427

Use this stat analysis as follows:

Favourites only all handicaps:

Losers

105,473

I suppose we can ignore chase races in this instance,

and if you really wanted to limit the number of bets,
then a focus on three-year-old horses who qualify
would be the option it may not be as profitable,
but with the lowest return on investment they hit the
best profit-per-pound risked as a lay in my book, and
could be an optional alternative with an average of
12 bets a day!

Profit/Loss
Betfair SP
-630.06

We are yet to look at the performance of qualifying horses in terms of their position in the betting
market

Winners

Profit/Loss
Betfair SP

The sheer numbers of qualifying horses is a slight

concern, but this looks to be a simple system for
layers to profit from long term. We have gone
through a number of different statistical angles and
none really stands out.

Profit/Loss
Betfair SP
-2,342.78

The Betfair SP Profit/Loss figure is greatly reduced

for qualifiers in chase races. As this is turning into
a laying system, perhaps we can leave chase races
alone in order to eke out the maximum profit possible.

Qualifiers
44,538

Profit/Loss
SP

Conclusions:

Chases (the word Chase or Steeplechase will appear

somewhere in the race title):
Qualifiers
32,691

Strike Rate

It seems that the older the horse, the poorer the strike
rate for backers.

Hurdles only: (the word Hurdle will appear somewhere in the race title).
Qualifiers
35,585

Losers

Age Qualifiers
2
8,464
3
43,407
4
32,838
5
27,953
6
25,595
7
21,981
8
16,245
9
10,656
10
5,960
11
2,903
12
1,209
13
485
14
117
15
23
16
2

Turf only:
Qualifiers
84,863

Winners

Lastly, a quick look by age gave the following

stats:

All-weather only:
Qualifiers
44,699

Qualifiers

iii. Ignore races with the words chase or steeplechase in the title.

iv. Make a note of any and all horses who have the
numbers 1, 2 or 3 nearest to their name in the
form column (i.e. their most recent run).

For more great money-making ideas, reviews and blueprints go to www.WhatReallyWinsMoney.co.uk

v. Lay all of those horses on Betfair.

Since the war, only six Grand Nationals were

won by horses carrying more than 11 stone 5 lbs,
and Red Rum won twice.
Eighteen of the last 20 winners carried 11 stone
3 lbs or less.
Only seven horses have carried more than 11
stone to victory since 1970: Red Rum (twice
1974, 1977), LEscargot (1975), Grittar (1982),
Corbiere (1983), Hedgehunter (2005), Dont
Push It (2010) and Neptune Collonges (2012).

vi. I suggest starting with smallest stakes to begin

with, as there are a lot of selections per day to
cope with and there will be losing days as well
as (more) winning ones.
vii. If you are looking for an easier-to-use version
with less bets, then all the age ranges above
show a profit of some kind you could limit
your bets accordingly by picking your own age
range and/or race type (I dont advise chases
as they look the least profitable) the choice is
yours.

EXPERIENCE
The ideal horse will have:

Thanks to the Statman for that. Now a look ahead to

the Grand National

Won a chase over at least 3 miles in his career;

Placed over 3 miles 2 furlongs or further;
Ran in at least eight chases in his career;
Had at least three preparation (prep) runs;
Had a run within 53 days of running in the
National;
Won a chase worth at least 28K.

Six Factors for Grand

National Profits

April 2014 will see the race which stops a nation.

Heres a quick guide to the six factors you should
be looking out for, in order to narrow down the massive 40-runner field into horses most likely, based on
winning profiles from past races.

Furthermore:
Each of the last 10 Grand National winners have
run at least 10 times over fences.
Every winner in the last 10 years has won a
chase worth at least 17,000.
Look for previous course runners who may
not necessarily have won or placed, but have
competed and completed over Grand National
fences.

The six factors are age, weight, experience, trainers

tricks, stamina, and handicap rating.
I have listed below the key stats and trends you need
in each category. Nearer to race time, make sure you
check out www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk and my
Twitter @whatreallywins where Ill be going through
the finalised field and picking the horses that best fit
the best profile.

TRAINERS TRICKS
Seven of the last 10 winners ran over hurdles in
the season they won the Grand National are
they running over hurdles to protect their chase
mark?
Only two winners have been trained in France.

AGE
The ideal horse should be aged between 8 and 12
years.
Thirteen of the last 19 winners were aged 9 or 10
years.
Nine-year-olds have the best record since 1970
with 13 winners.
Ten-year-olds have won 10 Grand Nationals
since 1970. They have won four of the last six
nationals.
Eleven-year-olds have won nine Grand Nationals in the last 33 years, but HAVE won the last
two Grand Nationals (Neptune Collonges and
Auroras Encore).

STAMINA
Look for horses with proven stamina (see Experience above). Horses should ideally have won
a chase over at least 3 miles, or at least been
placed over 3 miles 2 furlongs.
Look for horses who have completed the course
without winning.

HANDICAP RATING
Concentrate on horses rated between 136 and 157 on
the day of the race.

WEIGHT
11 stone 6 lbs or under is the ideal weight.
Imagine having to carry a huge weight a huge
distance over those huge obstacles!

Bottom line:
9

Ill be showing you how to check out each of these

please turn over...

stats using the Racing Post at www.whatreallywin

smoney.co.uk as soon as the field is finalised a bit
nearer the race time.

onic Wars but on his return from them, he resumed

his passion for cross-country chasing, where he was
a prolific winner. But he had other abilities that I find
amazing: apparently he could run round a room, up
the walls, something like a wall-of-death trick motorcyclist, even giving the ceiling a kick. Furthermore,
from a standing position he could jump up onto a
rooms mantelpiece.

Ill take you on a video tour of the Racing Post website and show you how you can quickly shortlist the
horses most likely to perform well based on past stats
and sequences.

But its what happened in that 1839 Grand National

that I find most endearing. By now, aged 40, he was
aboard a horse called Conrad that set off in front,
and when he came to the first main obstacle, a brook,
Conrad suddenly stopped, sending Captain Becher
over the fence and into the water.

The Patriarch Presents

Find Big Priced Winners

During The Flat Season
With This Proven
Handicap System

There he lay in the water until the whole field had

passed and then emerged sodden and complaining
bitterly (and this is where I raise a glass to the captain) that he had never realised how vile water tasted
without the benefit of whisky! He re-mounted, but
fell at the second brook, whereupon he gave up on
the Grand National for good. But it never forgot him,
preserving his name at the brook to this day.

o, thats Cheltenham gone for another year, leaving behind a bundle of memories, pleasant or
painful, depending on how youve done...
Now its time for the start of the Flat Season and
the Grand National. Im going to give a tip for the
National and then an old plan for the Flat.

Big-priced winners this Flat season

Many punters regard the National as something of a

lottery (its perhaps ironic that the first winner of the
race in 1839 was named Lottery!), but that great
gambler of yesteryear, Alex Bird, didnt seem to
think so; he had some of his biggest bets, and wins,
in the race.

For the start of the new Flat season I have an old

system from around 25 years ago that seems almost
too good to be true, with winners at 20-1, 14-1
(twice), 12-1, 10-1, etc. I have all these results but
the only trouble is that it seems to give very few
selections.

Last year I backed Teaforthree and actually thought I

might have got the winner, but no, it was run out of it
and ended up third. Still, the each-way bet was a consolation. Ive backed it again this year and hope for
an improvement of two places. This is not altogether
impossible. It seems to be in good fettle and, with
10 stone 12lbs on its back, is carrying 5lbs less than
last year. I got on at 22-1, but its less now. Anyway,
thats my tip for whatever its worth.

However, I have a suggestion that will increase the

number of our selections but whether it will harm
our success rate is another matter. The figures I have
are for 43 bets and 15 winners, which is very impressive at the big prices of the winners. Ill describe the
thinking behind the system first and then suggest the
best way to find any possible bets.
We are looking purely at handicaps and the winners
of these turning out again within 14 days. The race
following their win must be a rise in class, and this
is where the system differs from most others which
look for a drop in class or similar class. With the rise
in class, the winner will have less weight to carry
than in its winning race, and it is this difference in
weight which is central to the system.

Since I wrote the above, Ive learned that Teaforthree

is going to be the mount of A.P. McCoy, so I might
increase my stake, although the 22-1 has gone.
Whenever you think of the Grand National, its
impossible not to think of Bechers Brook that
famous fence, not so fearsome now as it once was but
still a formidable jump. But who or what was Becher
in the first place? So, lay aside your study of the form
of the races 40 runners for a moment and Ill tell you.
Its a good story and I hope youll enjoy it.
It was named after a Captain Martin Becher who
rode in that first Grand National of 1839. He had
served with the Duke of Wellington in the Napole-

This weight difference must be 14lbs or more. So,

if in the race it won it carried 9st 2lbs, then in the
raised class race it must not carry more than 8st 2lbs.
One other thing the race it won must have had at
least 16 runners.

10

My suggestions, and they are no more than that, to

For more great money-making ideas, reviews and blueprints go to www.WhatReallyWinsMoney.co.uk

increase the number of possible selections would be

to decrease the number of runners in the qualifying
race from 16 to perhaps 14. And again, to reduce
the weight drop from 14 lbs to 12, or even 10. I just
wonder how that would do

Our focus in this case turns to the horses last race

(24 February). That race should have been a handicap (notice the letters Hc under Race Conditions?
This tells us it was a handicap), and the horse should
have ran in a 16-runner race (look at race outcome
and you will see that According To Them finished
first of four runners (1/4) so does not qualify. If
this was a 16-runner race, the 4 would have been
replaced with a 16).

I am well aware of the work involved with the possibility of finding no selections, so patience is of the
essence. Anyway, heres how I would set about it
i. Look in all handicap races on the Flat for winners last time out, running again within 14 days.

The horse must also have won in a lower class of

race than it is running in today. Under Race Conditions you will see C4: this signifies a Class 4 race

How do we identify a handicap race? Much like the

Statmans article, we will shortlist any race on the
Flat only which has the word handicap in its title.
As I write, we are in the midst of the Jumps season,
so please forgive me, as my example is from the
Jumps arena, but will serve to illustrate what you
should be looking for.

.
Todays race is a Class 5. For this horse to qualify as
a bet, it would need to be Class 3 (a class higher than
the Class 4 race he won last time out).

Go to www.racingpost.com, Cards, and Todays

Cards.

ii. That it carried 14lbs or more than it is set to

carry in its present race (there are 14lbs in a
stone).

Here is a good example of what to look for (remember this is taken from the Jumps and is for illustrative
purposes only this system is for the Flat Season)

For this part of the system, we need to compare the

horses weight when it won (in our example, that
race on 24 February), to the horses weight in this
next race (the Anise Catering Handicap Hurdle in the
first screenshot).
Look at the Race Outcome again, and youll see in
brackets (14L Present To You 11-9). This translates
as the horse winning by 14 lengths with Present To
You in second, and for our purposes here, According
To Them carried 11 stone 9 lbs.

Look for the word handicap in the title at any Flat

race meeting. Note down also the class of race. Here
the horse is running in a Class 5 race.
Focusing on According To Them, I will show this
horses information in detail below:

Returning to todays race:

The arrow pointing to the 1 shows us that According To Them won his last race. The arrow pointing to
the 14 shows us that According To Them last raced
14 days ago. The horse therefore qualifies so far
(remembering you will be focusing solely on the Flat
race meetings those not over hurdles and fences).

I have arrowed the horses weight today, which is

11 stone 9 lbs. There is no difference in weights. In
order for the horse to qualify as a bet, it would have
carried 11 stone 9 lbs in its first race, and is set to
carry 14lbs less (14lbs is 1 stone), or in this case, 10
stone 9lbs or less, in its next race.

Check these for the following in their previous race:

that it was a handicap race with 16 or more runners.

I hope you can follow the methodology. The Flat

season is yet to get going, so finding an actual
example is difficult. Clive will be posting selections
when they appear at www.whatreallywinsmoney.
co.uk. This is a system with very stringent rules so
there will be long periods without selections.

How do we do this?
At www.racingpost.com, simply click on the horses
name, and this will gain you access to his past form.
.

11

Thanks to the Patriarch for that. Lets see how my

Home-Grown systems are faring up
please turn over...

the right selections at the right price (and with

favourites, we are of course always laying the lowest
priced horse in the race).

Reviews:

Home-Grown Betting
Systems Update

This lay ladder lasts for three lays. We look to win a

certain predetermined amount (in my case 5) when
each horse loses. If the horse wins its race, the lay
ladder will seek to win our target profit, as well as
the losses from the last lay.

his month, I want to take a look at how riskier

staking plans can really enhance profits, particularly when laying. Ill be introducing you to new
Home-Grown betting systems at www.whatreally
winsmoney.co.uk over the coming month.

As the lay ladder runs for a sequence of only three

bets, risk should be kept to a minimum.

Do note that all selections for all Home-Grown systems mentioned in this article are available daily, and
for free, at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk for all
What Really Wins Money subscribers.

Heres an example:

This month I want to look at alternative staking

plans, the kinds of staking plans which may engender an increase in risk, but with said increase in risk,
these staking plans can increase profits considerably
and outperform basic level stakes.

The odds are in the second column: 1 stands for

win, and 2 stands for loss. When laying, we want a
horse to lose, so are looking for a 2.
Lets look at the lay ladder here, and this is a worstcase scenario because all three horses won their
races. In the first race, we lay a horse at odds of 1.39,
in order to win 5. The horse wins its race. We lose a
liability of 1.95.

Laying the favourite in Irish Bumpers

This strategy is simplicity itself. Look for the words
INH Flat Race in the race title at the Race Cards in
Irish Jumps venues, and lay the favourite.

In bet two, we lay a horse at odds of 2.94. In this

instance we want to win our 5 target, as well as the
loss of 1.95.

We have now had 49 selections since November

2012, with a 66% strike rate.
A 100 starting betting bank, laying favourites in
these INH Flat races (also known as Bumpers), to
level stakes (10 for illustration) has turned into 306.

This horse wins its race and we lose a total of 13.48.

In bet three, we lay a horse at odds of 2.64. In this
instance we want to win our 5 target, as well as the
lost 1.95 and lost 14.48, totalling 20.43.

The profit graph shows a slight dip as the winters

Jumps season winds down:

The horse wins its race and we lose a total of 33.51.

This is the worst-case scenario and you must be willing to accept these losses before you embark on this
kind of lay ladder.
Heres why I think this kind of lay ladder might work
when laying favourites... Look at the profit graph:

This is the simplest staking plan. If you want to take

more risk, and with more risk more reward, here are
a couple of staking plans which might interest you

The basic lay ladder

A lay ladder is a loss-recovery staking plan, so
is higher risk than level stakes, but profits can be
doubled, or trebled if the staking plan is used with

12

For more great money-making ideas, reviews and blueprints go to www.WhatReallyWinsMoney.co.uk

Since November 2012, the longest losing sequence

has been three bets, which fits in perfectly with this
kind of lay ladder.

In bet five, we lay a horse at odds of 1.52 and our

stake remains at 30. This horse wins its race (we
lose) and we lose 15.60. The series column shows
us that the accumulated losses increase to 29.60.

The Lay 1-4 staking plan

Bet six is the final bet of this sequence. We lay a

horse at odds of 2.43 and increase our stakes to 40.
This horse loses and we win 38. The previous losses
have now been recovered and we return to a 10
stake for the next race.

The second staking plan, which increases profits for

laying favourites in Bumpers in Ireland, is called
Lay 1-4. (All of these staking plans can be found at
www.stakingmachine.com.)
What attracts me to this staking plan is that I know
the maximum risk. The largest single stake will
always be 40.

Laying favourites in Irish Bumpers using Lay 1-4

has turned a 100 betting bank into 902. As I said
earlier, the highest stake is 40 and the liability will
remain low as we are always dealing with favourites.

What is Lay 1-4?

This is a gentler loss-recovery staking plan. The
idea here is to increase your stakes by 1 point after a
winner (a losing lay), to a maximum of 4 points until
the losses are recovered.

Do check out www.thestakingmachine.com/lay14.

php for a closer look at this staking plan.
There are those who want to stick with level stakes
laying, and good luck to them. There are, though,
a number of different strategies which will benefit
from a more adventurous staking plan approach. The
two I have showcased here increase profits markedly
while not creating undue risk. Lay 1-4 particularly
appeals, as we are dealing with laying favourites so
odds will not be unduly worrying.

Here is a sequence of bets that takes you from 1-4

stakes:

Novice Hurdle third-favourite laying

This is another lay system which is simplicity itself.
We look to lay the third-favourite in Novice Hurdle
races in the UK and Ireland.

We are looking at 6 November. We lay a horse at

odds of 2.7 to win 10. The horse wins its race, so
we lose our liability of 17.

It is a volatile system if we include all selections.

However, if laying third-favourites in Novice
Hurdles at odds of 6 or lower, the system is a lot
smoother. A 47-point profit is excellent for such a
simplistic idea.

The Series column keeps track of the accumulated

losses. So, for 6 November a figure of -17 appears in
this column.
In the second bet (7 November), we lay a horse at
odds of 3.7 and increase our stake to 20. The horse
wins its race (we lose) and we lose a liability of 54.
The accumulated losses in the Series column now
increases to -71.

As with the Irish Bumper favourites, those willing to

take a little more risk will be rewarded with a little
more profit.
If laying third-favourites in Novice Hurdles, at odds
of 6 or lower, a 57-point profit has accrued since
2012.

In bet three on 7 November, we lay a horse at odds

of 3.35 and increase our stake to 30. The horse loses
its race (we win) and we win 28.50. The current
accumulated loss therefore reduces by 28.50 to
42.50.
In bet four on 8 November, we lay a horse at odds
of 2.98 and our stake remains at 30 (remember our
stake will remain the same until the loss is recovered). The horse loses its race so we win another
28.50. The accumulated losses reduce further to
-14 thanks to these two consecutive successful lays.

The higher-risk/higher-reward staking plan Id like

to look at this month is called Lay % Recovery.
Please take a look at www.thestakingmachine.com/
lay_percentage_recovery.php for a fuller explanation
of this type of staking plan.

13

Loss-recovery staking plans always carry greater

risk, particularly when laying. This risk, though,
seems to have translated in greater profits.
please turn over...

An 83% strike rate, as well as the longest losing run

over 2 years being only three bets, allows this staking
plan to flourish.
Starting with a nominal 1,000, we look to lay 2%
stakes. The betting bank has increased to 2,048.

Laying vulnerable favourites

In Augusts What Really Wins Money, I introduced
you to two Overwhelm betting systems.
Now you can see what this place-only strategy
appealed to me enough to warrant continuation into
2014.

One of these Overwhelm betting systems was

called the Vulnerable Favourites Lay Strategy. Quite
simply, we look for a Racing Post betting forecast
where the first four horses in the betting are tightly
matched.

There was a slight lull, but profits rose soon after, to

finish the year with a 47-point gain. Whilst on the
subject of high-risk/high-reward staking plans, a plan
called the Pro Plan, from www.stakingmachine.com
and which I shared with you in 2013, turned 100,
yes a measly 100, into nearly 4,900!

Here is a quick example:

355 Musselburgh BETTING FORECAST:7/2El
Namoose, 4/1Warriors Tale, 9/2Racing Europe,
5/1Gurkha Brave.

The Pro Plan looks to win a target profit per race and
is best explained here at www.thestakingmachine.
com/pro.php. As the strike rate was so high, I looked
to win 10% of the betting bank per race.

In this race, the second horse is only 0.5 point bigger

than the favourite. The third horse is only 0.5 point
bigger in odds than the second-favourite; and the
fourth-favourite is only 0.5 point bigger than the
third-favourite.

What of 2014?
If you look at the 2013 graph above, youll see a
period of loss at the beginning of that year. Well, this
is exactly what we are experiencing at present. A
100 betting bank stands at 84 currently, backing all
selections at odds of between 1.1 and 1.5 to place.

The inference here is that, with such a tight head of

the betting market, surely the Betting Forecast favourite is there under sufferance, rather than being an
outstanding candidate for favouritism.
A 26-point profit since January 2014 laying horses
priced between 4 and 14 has absorbed a recent poor
run, just as I write. This remains a laying system I
like, for its simplicity and long-term potential.

The Pro Plan which featured so prominently in 2013,

has turned the 100 betting bank into 193, so may
be worth persevering with in 2014?
As to the strategy, well, we look for two-horse races
in the Betting Forecast in the Racing Post, and back
the Live Market favourite to place only.

A 112-point profit since January 2013 to level stakes

is not to be sniffed at.
In this month, where we are opting for high-risk/
high-reward alternatives, there are a number of
staking plans which sky-rocket this profit level. But
remembering that we are laying horses priced at
between odds of 4 and 14, any loss-retrieval staking
plan, for this strategy, could result in huge losses.

Here is an example of the type of race we look for

530 Wolves BETTING FORECAST:6/4Wild
Desert, 2/1Scribe, 9/2Bute Hall.
Can you see that this is apparently a two-horse race
with a noticeable gap to the third horse Bute Hall?

I will stick with level stakes, which have served me

so well from January 2013 to date.

This is definitely a strategy to recommend for 2014.

The price graph can be made less volatile by only
backing qualifying selections between the odds of
1.1 and 1.5.

Two-horse race placers

This Home-Grown strategy was the eye-catcher for
2013, and before I explain how to make selections,
heres a look at the profit graph for 2013... (We place
back any selections priced between odds of 1.1 and
1.5 in the place only market.)

Bottom line

14

Please follow these strategies and their selections at

www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk. I will be adding
more ideas, as long as they are showing a current

For more great money-making ideas, reviews and blueprints go to www.WhatReallyWinsMoney.co.uk

profit, in the coming month at the website. And dont

forget EVA!

December: 100.72-point profit

EVA is my Each-way Value Alternative daily tips

post at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk, which has
been picking winners as high as 28 and placed horses
at odds as high as 45.

Moving into 2014, January saw a decent return of

100.7 points, thanks to two each-way winners and an
each-way Trixie really boosting the bank on 28 January 2014. February has been the poorest month for a
while with only a 9-point profit.

Selections are free to What Really Wins Money subscribers and are really doing the business in 2014.

The tipping of Jezki and Tour de Champs on the first

day of Cheltenham has produced a profit for March.

With that said, lets now turn to other tipsters

and systems that weve been testing and see how
theyre doing

This looks to be a service worth following. At 58

per month its a little pricey and you must factor in
the points staking which is so prevalent of Betfan.
com products (it has a nifty way of inflating the
returns if you work up to 10-point stakes).

Reviews:

Ante-Post King From www.tipsterwarehouse.

co.uk and costing 19.95 per month and 39.95 per
quarter. A 100-point betting bank is required. A very
interesting service for those who like to bet at sometime-decent odds.

Systems and
Tipsters Update

elcome to the monthly round-up of whats hot

and whats not in the world of sports tipsters.
This is a snapshot of the systems and tipsters we are
trialling. For a full round-up, please visit www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk.

Sports covered so far (testing has begun in January

2014) are golf, darts, tennis, rugby union, the Winter
Olympics and rugby league. Highlights include Li
Na winning the Aussie Open at 14/1, and CabreraBello 40/1 each-way place (9-point profit).

Whats hot?

February has seen a fair share of big wins, the highlights being Coetzee in the Joburg Open (golf) and
Jason Day in the Accenture Play on 19 February at
20/1; 42 points profit for February is superb thanks to
the two big wins. This service is in sharp contrast to
the odds-on services offered by Alex Rey and Goals
Galore. With big odds comes the attached long losing
runs, but if the tipster can perform as the Ante-Post
King currently is doing, then you would be a please
customer so far in 2014.

Alex Rey Sports This is a tipster from www.tipsterwarehouse.co.uk. Alex Reys focus is mostly on
football, tennis, snooker and golf. A 50-point betting
bank is required.
From 1 January 2014 to date, bets so far have been
odds on, with the occasion each-way bet on the golf.
14.22-points profit for January 2014 and 6.07-points
profit for February 2014 follows from a poor end to
2013 with a 7-point loss in the last three months.
Only two defeats in January saw an excellent month.
Three of five losing bets in February were higherrisk each-way bets and a treble. So perhaps Alex Rey
should continue to focus on the odds on bets?

There are a few open bets for March which are yet to
settle as I write.
The Gambling Don This is another horse racing
tipster from www.betfan.com. Stakes are typically 4
or 5 points to win and 3 points each way, although
the Gambling Don increases and decreases stakes as
per his greater confidence in some selections.

An interesting, albeit unexciting, service which

does require a high strike rate given the short odds.
Andy Bell Racing This is a service from www.
betfan.com which we began proofing in September.
This horse-racing tipster uses win singles and eachway bets. From our proofing period, bets of maximum confidence use 10 points, so an each-way bet
risking 10 points will be 5 points each way.

As well as traditional bets, the Gambling Don also

offers the odd column tip, such as the one he gave
out on 5 January which won at 5/1. These are not
recorded in the official results though, so bear that in
mind.

Since testing began:

A lack of consistency profit-wise marks out the

Gambling Don: a 24.35-points loss in October was
followed by 75.89-points profit in November, then
a 36.85-points loss in December, and January 2014

September: 36-point profit

October: 51-point loss
November: 86-point profit

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saw 79.84 points profit (salvaged by three wins in the

last three January bets). February was terrible with a
44.47-point loss.

has been poor to date: a loss of 16 points. This is a

service which has a number of false dawns. The end
of February saw an excellent run, which was ended
by a run of nine horses not placing. 8 March saw a
winner at 14.4 followed by a winner on 9 March,
which has cut into losses considerably.

Please put these points profit figures in the context

of the points staked (as mentioned at the beginning).
I am not sure as a punter I would like such a lurch
from profit to loss to profit to loss on such a consistent basis. It is not psychologically reassuring. A
50-point profit though, since the trial has started, suggests that the long-term focus should be considered.

These false dawns must be frustrating for subscribers. There is not a high enough strike rate of horses
placing, when not winning. And theres an awful
long way to go to get back the current losses.
Goals Galore Goals Galore is a football tipping
service from www.tipsterwarehouse.co.uk. It is a
straightforward backing service, focusing on odds
on selections. The betting bank advised is 50 points,
meaning a 10 stake will require a 500 betting
bank.

Whats cold?
Favourite Lays www.favouritelays.com This is
another service offered by www.betsfortoday.com
and follows their general criteria for their lay systems, i.e. they do not lay over 3.99 /4 decimal odds.

Occasionally there are doubles and trebles, which

will increase the potential return to evens and above.
The highest odds selection on record is 3.68 decimal
odds for an Over 2.5 Goals treble.

My trial began on 1 October 2013, and that month

produced a loss of 1.78 points. November improved
markedly with a profit of 5.42 points. December
ended with a marginal gain of 1.68 points. January
2014 saw a loss of 7.88 points compounded by a
terrible run of four losing lays in the last two days of
the month. This contrasts with February 2014, where
the end of the month saw a run of four winning lays,
which brought a marginal 2.75-point profit.

Given the title Goals Galore, the focus is specifically on Over/Under 1.5 Goals and Over/Under 2.5
Goals bets.
This is a service with a high strike rate (as is
expected when you are tipping almost exclusively
odds-on shots). It is ideal, therefore, for those
who want some emotional stability in their betting
(remember Lucy Collins article on emotion?).

That word marginal keeps cropping up. January

was a poor start and the winning months either side
have not been earth-shattering.
At 27 per month, you would be in profit since October, but only just, because of the poor January 2014.
A lot more required.

A 1.76-point loss since the start of the year is not

ideal for a service with that high strike rate. Recent
losses have been accumulated in the Holland second
division; in fact nine of the most recent losers have
come from Dutch football. This is a big haul, given
the odds-on status of the goals bets, and improvement is required with, perhaps, a venture into more
consistent leagues? Disappointing so far for a service
which should profit consistently, given the bets are
odds on.

First Place Winners www.firstplacewinners.co.uk

First Place Winners is a horse-racing tipster whose
selections are backed in the following manner:
Place 20% of your stake on the horse to win.
Place 80% of your stake on the horse to place.

What is place-only betting?

Thats all from this months newsletter. So, until next

month, have a fun and profitable time.

I refer you to the each-way probability article in this

months newsletter. When we bet on a horse to place,
we are betting that the horse will finish
First or second in a 7-runner race.
First, second or third in an 8-runner+ race.
First, second, third or fourth in a 16+ runner
handicap race.
There seems to be trouble with the website at present
as regards layout. I am not sure whether it is undergoing any changes.
Testing began on 1 October 2013, and performance

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