Economic Survey of Hungary 2010
Economic Survey of Hungary 2010
Economic Survey of Hungary 2010
FEBRUARY 2010
market sentiment.
education outcomes?
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This Policy Brief presents the assessment and recommendations of the 2010 OECD Economic
Survey of Hungary. The Economic and Development Review Committee, which is made up of the
30 member countries and the European Commission, reviewed this Survey. The starting point for
the Survey is a draft prepared by the Economics Department which is then modified following the
Committee’s discussions, and issued under the responsibility of the Committee.
© OECD 2010
Policy Brief
ECONOMIC SURVEY OF HUNGARY, 2010
ratio of actual teaching relative to the total statutory working time should
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low. The authorities should improve incentives to provide tertiary studies that
match labour market needs and tighten the conditions under which students
continue to receive free tuition, while extending ways of defraying the living
expenses of students from poor families. n
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How has the global Hungary has been in one of the most severe recessions among OECD
crisis affected countries, with the projected fall in real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2009
Hungary? being double the OECD average. Hungary’s economy suffered from a trade
collapse just like other transition economies in the region, but the global
crisis has been compounded by a collapse in investor confidence in forint-
denominated assets. This triggered a steep depreciation of the exchange rate
in October 2008 and led the authorities to request financial assistance from
international organisations. A combined credit package of EUR 20 billion was
granted in November 2008 by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the
European Union (EU) and the World Bank.
2008, compared to less than 50% in Poland and 40% in the Czech Republic. At
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the climax of the financial crisis (October 2008), gross international reserves
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At the same time, the capacity of the government to bail out private investors
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appeared limited owing to the high public debt and the still significant fiscal
deficit. n
What challenges Unlike in most other OECD countries, macroeconomic policies could not
arise for economic afford to support the economy and had to remain tight to avoid further
policies? depreciation of the exchange rate. For the central bank, defending the forint
had at times to take precedence over inflation targeting. On the fiscal side,
spending was cut significantly to reinforce confidence, including nominal
cuts in public wages and pensions. The pro-cyclical stance was similar to
policies followed by other emerging countries with foreign currency debt
overhangs. In those countries, the positive impact of reversing capital flows
proved to outweigh the negative impact of tight macroeconomic policies:
the restoration of market confidence eventually led to currency appreciation
and interest rate declines, which lightened the private sector debt burden,
stimulating activity. In the meantime, transitory high domestic interest
rates had limited pass-through to the economy since most indebtedness is
in foreign currency. In Hungary also, tight macroeconomic policies, together
with international support, have been successful in stabilising the currency,
allowing the central bank to resume interest rate cuts in mid-2009 and the
government to let automatic stabilisers work in part.
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Before the crisis, Hungary’s productivity gap vis-à-vis the OECD average
was already large. Real income convergence came close to a halt in 2007-08
and is likely to have been reversed in 2009. The depth of this recession is
bound to leave deep marks in productive capacity. Consequently, boosting
potential growth calls for continued structural reforms encompassing labour
market, education, entrepreneurship and innovation. In particular, active
labour market policies should be better targeted at the unskilled. For the
recent reduction in maternity leave to lead to a significant increase in female
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work, working from home, nursery services) is expanded. The still generous
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maternity leave provisions should be reduced further, while public support for
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How to ensure fiscal A major step toward fiscal sustainability has been taken with the adoption
sustainability? of the Fiscal Responsibility Law that introduced strict fiscal rules and
established a non-partisan fiscal council to oversee implementation. The
new fiscal council holds the potential to raise public awareness about the
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need for fiscal consolidation and to ensure “checks and balances” for fiscal
policy implementation. Hence, it is of utmost importance that the fiscal
council benefits from broad political acceptance. The new fiscal rules aim
at lowering the debt-to-GDP ratio over time and introduce annual spending
targets for each of the next three years. By focusing on the debt ratio and
moving towards a medium-term expenditure setting, the framework deals
appropriately with Hungary’s sustainability challenge given politicians’
proclivity to overspending during election years. The Fiscal Responsibility
Law has just begun to be implemented and, with two major elections taking
place in 2010, it would be best to allow some experience to accumulate before
considering substantial changes. However, the operational framework of the
rules appears to be somewhat complex. To increase public ownership of the
rules, the fiscal council should prepare, as soon as possible, an operational
manual describing the step-by-step process for implementing the rules,
including key budgetary variables, dates and responsible governmental and
parliamentary units.
taxation. Further tax cuts would also increase welfare gains since marginal
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tax rates are high, with negative impacts on growth and employment.
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However, this would require first to reduce the size of the government
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Hungary’s public administration is one of the least efficient among OECD and
accession countries, pointing to potentially large efficiency gains (Figure 1).
One potential source of savings appears to lie in reduced staffing; central and
sub‑national workers account for almost 20% of total domestic employment,
which is high in comparison with other OECD countries, although it reflects
low total activity ratio as well. Hence, the government should continue to
streamline public sector employment. Another source of saving could be
outsourcing, given that the degree of outsourcing is rather low in Hungary
at the central government level compared to other countries. Greater use of
outsourcing for public services could raise efficiency of service provision,
but care would have to be taken to ensure transparent and competitive
contracting, to reduce the risk of corruption. This would require the
government to strengthen public procurement monitoring capacity and the
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State Audit Office, and enhance the political will in support of the Office’s
enforcement. The recent legislation enhancing the control mechanism of
the Public Procurement Office is a step in the right direction. More generally,
to help maintain the momentum of public administration reform, the
government should establish a unit with a mandate to both promote and
assess reform progress. It should also revisit and pursue recommendations
of the 2006 State Reform Council’s comprehensive stocktaking of overlapping
tasks in government agencies.
The health status of the Hungarian population is among the poorest in the
OECD; in particular, male life expectancy at birth is the lowest, while that
of women is the second lowest. Despite multi-causal factors, one of the
most important determinants is the health-care delivery system. Although
Hungary’s public expenditure on health care is below OECD and EU15
averages, the share of private spending on health (including the traditional
under-the-table payments) is estimated to be the highest in the EU, at around
30% of total spending on health. There is thus an obvious need to raise “value
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for money” in the health sector, all the more so in light of impending ageing-
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0.7 POL
0.6
0.5
0.4
3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
Public service spending 20072 (% of GDP)
1. A composite indicator for public administration outcome based on international surveys on the
quality of justice and the level of corruption, both taken from the Global Competitiveness Report, and
the levels of bureaucracy in the economy measured by OECD’s Product Market Regulation indicator.
2. Spending in 2006 for Canada and Slovenia, 2005 for New Zealand. Spending on general public
services (excluding interest payments) and public order and safety.
Source: OECD calculations based on OECD (2009), OECD National Accounts Statistics (database), October;
WEO (2008), The Global Competitiveness Report 2008‑2009, World Economic Forum; OECD (2009),
International Regulation (database), July.
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How to improve A major lesson learnt from the crisis in Hungary is that the approach towards
financial regulation household lending needs to change: stronger protection for borrowers needs
and supervision? to be combined with tighter regulation of lenders. The right balance needs to
be struck in both directions, as neither the over-protection of households nor
the over-regulation of banks would be desirable. The former can lead to moral
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hazard and boost the pool of “subprime” borrowers, while the latter can
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hurt the efficient functioning of the financial system and hence of the whole
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economy.
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Major sources of risk for financial stability have been borrowing in foreign
currency and inadequate liquidity management with a mismatch of
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A source of risk for borrowers has been the arbitrary cost increases passed on
by banks without much restriction until very recently. Inadequate disclosure
of the conditions of loan products, in particular unilateral change of contract
by banks, resulted in soaring instalments, payment difficulties, defaults
and sometimes evictions. Unfair conditions, unilateral changes of contract
and other abusive practices in the recent past call for vigilant consumer
protection. All conditions of financial products should be disclosed in a
transparent way before signing the contract. More recently, the instances
where banks can transfer increased costs to households have been limited
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with the signature of banks, the regulator and the government of a “Code of
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There are serious obstacles to effective competition. One relates to the lack
of information on borrowers, which implies higher credit risk for banks
Figure 2. 4 000
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Subsidised
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0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
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and hence less likelihood for reducing margins. Another very important
obstacle is high switching costs, amounting to 1-2% for housing loans and
3-5% for loans for other purposes. Increased competition should help reduce
switching costs but capping of pre-payment costs by a recent legislation is a
welcome step, even though the cap may be somewhat high. Also, portability
for housing loan subsidies across properties and across financial institutions
should be introduced, as recommended by the competition authority.
Independent agents should be required to offer several options to customers
for a fixed fee, which should only be paid if one of the options is chosen
by the customer, and these agents should be prohibited from accepting
commissions from financial institutions. Agents working for or on behalf
of banks should disclose their remuneration scheme and amount to the
borrower.
regulation, although care should be taken to avoid overlap with the central
bank. The supervisory authority should not be held liable for the damages its
regulations may cause to regulated institutions, otherwise the new powers to
charge higher fines cannot be effective. n
How to raise Hungarian educational policies and institutions are capable of combining
education outcomes? good educational outcomes and a relatively efficient use of resources.
Costs relative to GDP are at about the OECD average, while younger school
pupils perform above average in internationally comparable assessments.
But 15 year-olds register only average performance in the Programme for
International Student Assessments (PISA), and the proportion of adults with
tertiary qualifications, though rising, is still low. More worryingly, the school
system does not adequately prepare vocational school leavers for the labour
market. Hence, the government should be ready to reform the system to
further improve educational outcomes and cost efficiency.
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The employment rate for youth (age 15-19) was the lowest in the OECD area
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taught, school leavers should be traced in their first years after school to gain
feedback on the relevance of their vocational training.
Tracking (i.e. selecting students into different types of school on the basis of
their assessed performance and expressed preferences) is widely believed
to lead to greater efficiency in teaching, despite lack of evidence. Several
OECD countries have moved away from early tracking in recent decades,
and no country has moved in the opposite direction. The movement towards
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Many Roma adults have low educational attainment – some did not
even complete primary education – and on average, systematically lower
achievement than the rest of the population. Policies have moved away from
concentrating Roma students in “gypsy schools” towards encouraging Roma
integration with the rest of society from the earliest possible age. Research
shows that integrating young children from different ethnic backgrounds in
pre‑school raises the probability that they will remain longer in education
after the minimum age limit, and reduces social prejudices in both directions.
It is therefore desirable to encourage Roma parents, for example through
financial incentives, to send their children to pre-school for longer than the
compulsory period. The special pre-schooling support for disadvantaged
parents introduced by the government in January 2009 is a positive step in
this direction.
In 2005, tertiary education switched to the Bologna System. The 2010 in-depth
review may reveal some quality issues since major reforms combined
with the rise in enrolments have put the tertiary system under strain. The
government should ensure that subsidising failing institutions and faculties
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market needs and tighten the conditions under which students continue to
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receive free tuition, while extending ways of defraying the living expenses
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For further For further information regarding this Policy Brief, please contact:
information Margit Molnár, e-mail: margit.molnar@oecd.org, tel.: +33 1 45 24 89 49; or
Colin Forthun, e-mail: colin.forthun@oecd.org, tel.: +33 1 45 24 92 20; or
Pierre Beynet, e-mail: pierre.beynet@oecd.org, tel.: +33 1 45 24 96 35.
© OECD 2010 ■ 11
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© OECD 2010