Causes of Climate Change
Causes of Climate Change
Causes of Climate Change
Natural Causes
The Earths climate can be affected by natural factors that are external
to the climate system, such as changes in volcanic activity, solar
output, and the Earth's orbit around the Sun. Of these, the two factors
relevant on timescales of contemporary climate change are changes in
volcanic activity and changes in solar radiation. In terms of the Earths
energy balance, these factors primarily influence the amount of incoming
energy. Volcanic eruptions are episodic and have relatively short-term effects
on climate. Changes in solar irradiance have contributed to climate trends
over the past century but since the Industrial Revolution, the effect of
additions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere has been about ten times
that of changes in the Suns output.
Human Causes
Climate change can also be caused by human activities, such as the
burning of fossil fuels and the conversion of land for forestry and
agriculture. Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, these human
influences on the climate system have increased substantially. In addition to
other environmental impacts, these activities change the land surface and
emit various substances to the atmosphere. These in turn can influence both
the amount of incoming energy and the amount of outgoing energy and can
have both warming and cooling effects on the climate. The dominant
product of fossil fuel combustion is carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas. The
overall effect of human activities since the Industrial Revolution has been a
warming effect, driven primarily by emissions of carbon dioxide and
enhanced by emissions of other greenhouse gases.
The build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has led to an
enhancement of the natural greenhouse effect. It is this human-induced
enhancement of the greenhouse effect that is of concern because ongoing
emissions of greenhouse gases have the potential to warm the planet to
levels that have never been experienced in the history of human civilization.
Such climate change could have far-reaching and/or unpredictable
environmental, social, and economic consequences.
The amount of CO2 in the air increased from some 280 parts per million by
volume (ppmv) at the beginning of the century to 389 ppmv at the end of
2010. The amount of CO2 varies throughout the year as the result of the
annual cycles of photosynthesis and oxidation, illustrated in the graph.
Similarly, methane (CH4) rose from a preindustrial atmospheric
concentration of around 700 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) to about
1,789 ppbv by 2007.
The overall warming from 1850 to the end of the 20th century was
equivalent to about 2.5 W/m; CO2 contributed around 60 per cent of this
figure and CH4 about 25 per cent, with N2O and halocarbons providing the
remainder. This has resulted in Earths average temperature increasing from
15.5C to 16.2C in the last 100 years. The warming effect that would result
from a doubling of CO2 from pre-industrial levels is estimated to be 4 W/m.
The concentrations of aerosols are about three times higher in the Northern
Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. This higher concentration is
estimated to result in radiation forcing that is about 50 per cent higher for
the Northern Hemisphere.
causes
There are a number of natural factors responsible for climate change. Some
of the more prominent ones are continental drift, volcanoes, ocean currents,
the earth's tilt, and comets and meteorites. Let's look at them in a little
detail.
Continental drift
You may have noticed something peculiar about South America and Africa on
a map of the world - don't they seem to fit into each other like pieces in a
jigsaw puzzle?
About 200 million years ago they were joined together! Scientists believe
that back then, the earth was not as we see it today, but the continents were
all part of one large landmass. Proof of this comes from the similarity
between plant and animal fossils and broad belts of rocks found on the
eastern coastline of South America and western coastline of Africa, which are
now widely separated by the Atlantic Ocean. The discovery of fossils of
tropical plants (in the form of coal deposits) in Antarctica has led to the
conclusion that this frozen land at some time in the past, must have been
situated closer to the equator, where the climate was tropical, with swamps
and plenty of lush vegetation.
The continents that we are familiar with today were formed when the
landmass began gradually drifting apart, millions of years back. This drift
also had an impact on the climate because it changed the physical features
of the landmass, their position and the position of water bodies. The
separation of the landmasses changed the flow of ocean currents and winds,
which affected the climate. This drift of the continents continues even today;
the Himalayan range is rising by about 1 mm (millimeter) every year
because the Indian land mass is moving towards the Asian land mass, slowly
but steadily.
Volcanoes
When a volcano erupts it throws out large volumes of sulphur dioxide (SO2),
water vapour, dust, and ash into the atmosphere. Although the volcanic
activity may last only a few days, yet the large volumes of gases and ash can
influence climatic patterns for years. Millions of tonnes of sulphur dioxide gas
can reach the upper levels of the atmosphere (called the stratosphere) from
a major eruption. The gases and dust particles partially block the incoming
rays of the sun, leading to cooling. Sulphur dioxide combines with water to
form tiny droplets of sulphuric acid. These droplets are so small that many of
them can stay aloft for several years. They are efficient reflectors of sunlight,
and screen the ground from some of the energy that it would ordinarily
receive from the sun. Winds in the upper levels of the atmopshere, called the
stratosphere, carry the aerosols rapidly around the globe in either an
easterly or westerly direction. Movement of aerosols north and south is
always much slower. This should give you some idea of the ways by which
cooling can be brought about for a few years after a major volcanic eruption.
Mount Pinatoba, in the Philippine islands erupted in April 1991 emitting
thousands of tonnes of gases into the atmosphere. Volcanic eruptions of this
magnitude can reduce the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth's
surface, lowering temperatures in the lower levels of the atmosphere (called
the Pacific Ocean can affect climatic conditions all over the world.
Another region that is strongly influenced by ocean currents is the North
Atlantic. If we compare places at the same latitude in Europe and North
America the effect is immediately obvious. Take a closer look at this example
- some parts of coastal Norway have an average temperature of -2C in
January and 14C in July; while places at the same latitude on the Pacific
coast of Alaska are far colder: -15C in January and only 10C in July. The
warm current along the Norewgian coast keeps much of the GreenlandNorwegian Sea free of ice even in winter. The rest of the Arctic Ocean, even
though it is much further south, remains frozen.
Ocean currents have been known to change direction or slow down. Much of
the heat that escapes from the oceans is in the form of water vapour, the
most abundant greenhouse gas on Earth. Yet, water vapor also contributes to
the formation of clouds, which shade the surface and have a net cooling
effect.
Any or all of these phenomena can have an impact on the climate, as is
believed to have happened at the end of the last Ice Age, about 14,000 years
ago.
Human causes
The Industrial Revolution in the 19th century saw the large-scale use of fossil
fuels for industrial activities. These industries created jobs and over the
years, people moved from rural areas to the cities. This trend is continuing
even today. More and more land that was covered with vegetation has been
cleared to make way for houses. Natural resources are being used
extensively for construction, industries, transport, and consumption.
Consumerism (our increasing want for material things) has increased by
leaps and bounds, creating mountains of waste. Also, our population has
increased to an incredible extent.
All this has contributed to a rise in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Fossil fuels such as oil, coal and natural gas supply most of the energy
needed to run vehicles, generate electricity for industries, households, etc.
The energy sector is responsible for about of the carbon dioxide emissions,
1/5 of the methane emissions and a large quantity of nitrous oxide. It also
produces nitrogen oxides (NOx) and carbon monoxide (CO) which are not
greenhouse gases but do have an influence on the chemical cycles in the
atmosphere that produce or destroy greenhouse gases.
- We use a huge quantity of paper in our work at schools and in offices. Have
we ever thought about the number of trees that we use in a day?
- Timber is used in large quantities for construction of houses, which means
that large areas of forest have to be cut down.
- A growing population has meant more and more mouths to feed. Because
the land area available for agriculture is limited (and in fact, is actually
shrinking as a result of ecological degradation!), high-yielding varieties of
crop are being grown to increase the agricultural output from a given area of
land. However, such high-yielding varieties of crops require large quantities
of fertilizers; and more fertilizer means more emissions of nitrous oxide, both
from the field into which it is put and the fertilizer industry that makes it.
Pollution also results from the run-off of fertilizer into water bodies.