R28 Financial Analysis Techniques IFT Notes PDF
R28 Financial Analysis Techniques IFT Notes PDF
R28 Financial Analysis Techniques IFT Notes PDF
Techniques
2014 Level I Financial Reporting and Analysis
Irfanullah.co
Contents
1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 3
2. The Financial Analysis Process ....................................................................................................... 3
3. Analytical Tools and Techniques .................................................................................................... 5
4. Common Ratios Used in Financial Analysis .................................................................................. 8
5. Equity Analysis ............................................................................................................................... 18
6. Credit Analysis ............................................................................................................................... 21
7. Business and Geographic Segments .............................................................................................. 21
8. Model building and forecasting ..................................................................................................... 22
Summary ............................................................................................................................................. 22
Next Steps ........................................................................................................................................... 23
This document should be read in conjunction with the corresponding reading in the 2014 Level I
CFA Program curriculum.
Some of the graphs, charts, tables, examples, and figures are copyright 2013, CFA Institute.
Reproduced and republished with permission from CFA Institute. All rights reserved.
Required disclaimer: CFA Institute does not endorse, promote, or warrant the accuracy or quality
of the products or services offered by Irfanullah Financial Training. CFA Institute, CFA, and
Chartered Financial Analyst are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.
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1. Introduction
Financial analysis is a useful tool in evaluating a companys performance and trends. The primary
source of data is a companys annual report, financial statements, and MD&A. Although the
financial statements contain data about a companys past performance and current financial
condition, they do not contain all the information required to forecast future performance.
An analyst must be capable of using a companys financial statements along with other information
such as economy/industry trends to make projections and reach valid conclusions. An analyst
converts data into financial metrics like ratios that help in decision making.
What is the purpose of the analysis? What questions will this analysis answer?
What are the factors or relationships that will influence the analysis?
What are the analytical limitations, and will these limitations affect the analysis?
Once the purpose is defined, the analyst can choose the right techniques for the analysis. For
example, the level of detail required for a substantial long term investment in equities will be
higher than one needed for a short term investment in fixed income.
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Objective
Questions to be answered
Nature and content of report to be provided
Timetable and budget
3. Process data
Analytical results
6. Follow-up
Updated recommendations
What is the likely impact of a trend/events in the company, industry and the economy on
the companys future cash flows?
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3.1 Ratios
A ratio is an indicator of some aspect of a companys performance like profitability or inventory
management. Ratio analysis helps in analyzing the current financial health of a company, evaluate
its past performance, and provide insights for future projections.
Note: Although there are some widely accepted ratios like net profit margin, there is no
standardized set of ratios. Furthermore, names and formulas for computing ratios often differ from
analyst to analyst.
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2011
2012
% of total assets
% of total assets
Cash
Marketable Securities
Accounts Receivables
Inventory
10
PP&E
80
80
Total Assets
100
100
In terms of time series analysis (also called trend analysis), the vertical common-size balance
sheet indicates how a particular item is changing relative to total assets. For the data given
above, we can observe that inventory is increasing as a percentage of total assets while accounts
receivable is decreasing as a percentage of total assets.
The vertical common-size balance sheet can be used in cross-sectional analysis (also called relative
analysis) to compare a specific metric of one company with another for a single time period. As
illustrated in the table below, this method allows comparison across companies which might be of
significantly different sizes and/or operate in different currencies.
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Company B
Cash
0.3%
$10
0.3%
120
Marketable Securities
2.6%
$90
2.8%
950
5.8%
$200
7.3%
2,500
Inventory
8.7%
$300
10.2%
3,500
Non-Current Assets
82.6%
$2,580
79.4%
27,400
Total Assets
100%
$3,450
100%
34,470
This presentation makes it easy to see that Company A has lower receivables as a percentage of
total assets relative to Company B. Company A also has lower inventory as a percentage of total
assets relative to Company B.
In a horizontal common-size balance sheet, each balance sheet item is shown in relation to the
same item in a base year. Consider the following balance sheet excerpt:
2011 (base year)
2012
Cash
10
12
Marketable Securities
90
99
Inventory
600
900
The corresponding horizontal common size balance sheet will look like this:
2011 (base year)
2012
Cash
1.0
1.2
Marketable Securities
1.0
1.1
Inventory
1.0
1.5
Notice that the base-year value for all balance sheet items is set to 1. This makes it easy to see the
percentage change in each item relative to the base year. For the data given above, cash increased
by 20%, marketable securities increased by 10% and inventory increased by 50%. An analysis of
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horizontal common-size balance sheets highlights structural changes that have occurred in a
business.
3.3 Graphs
Graphs can be considered an extension of the financial analysis. It is a pictorial representation of
the analysis done, be it ratio analysis or trend analysis. Analysts use appropriate graphs such as
line charts, bar graphs based on the type of data to be shown. It helps in quick comparison of
financial performance and structure over time.
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A large number of ratios are used to measure various aspects of performance. Commonly used
financial ratios can be categorized as follows:
Category
Example
Activity ratios
Efficiency of a company
Revenue / Assets
Liquidity ratios
obligations
liabilities
Assets / Equity
Solvency ratios
obligations
Profitability ratios
Profitability
Valuation ratios
share
Note that for some ratios, the numerator and denominator are from the same statement. Examples
of such ratios are net profit margin (net income/sales) and leverage (assets/equity). For other ratios
(called mixed ratios), the numerator is from one statement the denominator is from another
statement. An example is the asset turnover ratio (sales/assets).
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Numerator
Denominator
Inventory turnover
Average inventory
Inventory turnover
Receivables turnover
Revenue
Average receivables
Receivables turnover
Payables turnover
Purchases
Payables turnover
Revenue
Revenue
Revenue
In ratios above, average = (beginning period value + ending period value)/2. If beginning period value
is not available, then use ending period value.
Average inventory = (beginning inventory + ending inventory )/2
Average receivables = (beginning receivable + ending receivable)/2
Average payables = (beginning payable + ending payable)/2
Purchases = cost of goods sold + ending inventory beginning inventory
Interpretation
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Inventory turnover
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How many times per period entire inventory was sold. Measures
the ability of a company to sell its inventory.
Higher number means greater efficiency because inventory is kept
for a shorter period. It could also mean insufficient inventory,
which in turn, might affect growth /revenue.
(DOH)
Receivables turnover
Payables turnover
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Numerator
Denominator
Current ratio
Current assets
Current liabilities
Quick ratio
Current liabilities
investments + receivables
Cash ratio
Current liabilities
investments
Defensive interval ratio
investments + receivables
Additional Liquidity Ratios
Cash conversion cycle (net operating cycle) = Days of inventory on hand (DOH)
+ days of sales outstanding (DSO)
number of days of payables
Interpretation
Current ratio
Quick ratio
Cash ratio
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The time between cash paid (to suppliers) and cash collected (from
customers)
Lower the number, better for the company as it means high
liquidity
Long cash conversion cycle = low liquidity
The example below for ABC Corp. illustrates cash conversion cycle better. The timeline for
various events is illustrated below:
Numerator
Denominator
Total debt
Total assets
Debt ratios
Debt to assets ratio
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Total debt
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Total debt + total shareholders
equity
Total debt
EBIT
Interest payments
Coverage Ratios
payments
Note that there are two categories of solvency ratios: debt (or leverage) ratios and coverage ratios.
In general, a high debt (or leverage) ratio implies a high level of debt, high risk and low solvency.
With coverage ratios, a high number is good because this indicates high income relative to interest
payments.
Interpretation
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Numerator
Denominator
Gross profit
Revenue
Operating income
Revenue
Pretax margin
Revenue
Return on Sales
after interest)
Net profit margin
Net profit
Revenue
Operating ROA
Operating income
Net income
EBIT
Return on Investment
equity
Return on equity (ROE)
Net income
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Interpretation
Pretax margin
Assets (ROA)
used.
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Return on Equity
Return on assets
Financial Leverage
EBIT margin
Interest burden
Tax burden
Note: From exam perspective the following two forms of return on equity are important.
Return on equity = Net income/ equity = (Net income/assets) * (assets/equity)
Return on equity = Net income/equity = (Net income/revenue) * (revenue/assets) *
(assets/equity)
Say you are given the follow data for a particular company:
2010
2011
2012
ROE
19%
20%
22%
ROA
8.1%
8%
7.9%
2.1
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Based only on the information above, the most appropriate conclusion is that over the period
2010 to 2012, the companys
A. Net profit margin and financial leverage have decreased
B. Net profit margin and financial leverage have increased
C. Net profit margin has decreased but its financial leverage has increased
Solution: A quick glance at the data says profitability is going up and asset turnover has
slightly increased from 2010 to 2012. ROA is going down from the second year.
Steps: 1. Break down ROE into: (return on assets) * (assets/equity) = (ROA) * financial
leverage. ROE is going up (first row). Since ROA is going down, leverage must increase for
ROE to increase. So A is incorrect.
2. To determine if net profit margin increased or decreased, break down ROA into (net
income/sales) * (sales/assets). Since (sales/assets) or asset turnover is increasing, net profit
margin has to decrease for return on assets to decrease. So, the correct answer is C.
5. Equity Analysis
One of the most common applications of financial analysis is that of selecting stocks. An equity
analyst uses various tools (such as valuation ratios) before recommending a security to be included
in an equity portfolio. The valuation process consists of the following steps:
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
(v)
This section, in particular, focuses on the ratios used to value equity. Research has shown that
ratios are useful in forecasting earnings and stock returns. Note that this material is covered in
more detail in the equity segment of the curriculum.
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Numerator
Denominator
P/E
P/CF
P/S
P/BV
Diluted EPS
dividends
dilutive securities
shares outstanding
EBITDA
Interpretation
P/E
P/CF
P/S
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P/BV
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Numerator
Denominator
Dividend
Earnings
Interpretation
Retention Rate
manufacturing industry but is not relevant for the financial services industry. Exhibit 15 in the
curriculum identifies some common industry and task specific ratios.
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6. Credit Analysis
Credit risk is the risk that the borrower will default on a payment when it is due. For example, if
you are a bondholder, credit risk is the risk that the bond issuer will not pay you the interest on
time. Credit analysis is the evaluation of this credit risk. Just as ratio analysis is useful in valuing
equity, it can also be applied to analyze the creditworthiness of a borrower. Some of the ratios
commonly used in credit analysis are listed below:
Numerator
Denominator
EBIT
Gross interest
EBITDA
Gross interest
Debt to EBITDA
Total debt
EBITDA
Total debt
High coverage ratios would imply good credit quality. Similarly low debt/EBITDA and low debt
/ (debt + equity) would imply good credit quality.
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Numerator
Denominator
Segment margin
Segment profit
Segment revenue
Segment turnover
Segment revenue
Segment assets
Segment ROA
Segment profit
Segment assets
Segment liabilities
Segment assets
Summary
Note: This summary has been adapted from the CFA Program curriculum.
Financial analysis techniques, including common-size and ratio analysis, are useful in
summarizing financial reporting data and evaluating the performance and financial position of a
company. The results of financial analysis techniques provide important inputs into security
valuation. Key facets of financial analysis include the following:
Common-size financial statements and financial ratios remove the effect of size, allowing
comparisons of a company with peer companies (cross-sectional analysis) and comparison of
a companys results over time (trend or time-series analysis).
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Liquidity ratios measure the ability of a company to meet short-term obligations. Major
liquidity ratios include the current ratio, quick ratio, cash ratio, and defensive interval ratio.
Solvency ratios measure the ability of a company to meet long-term obligations. Major
solvency ratios include debt ratios (including the debt-to-assets ratio, debt-to-capital ratio,
debt-to-equity ratio, and financial leverage ratio) and coverage ratios (including interest
coverage and fixed charge coverage).
Profitability ratios measure the ability of a company to generate profits from revenue and
assets. Major profitability ratios include return on sales ratios (including gross profit margin,
operating profit margin, pretax margin, and net profit margin) and return on investment ratios
(including operating ROA, ROA, return on total capital, ROE, and return on common equity).
Ratios can also be combined and evaluated as a group to better understand how they fit together
and how efficiency and leverage are tied to profitability.
ROE can be analyzed as the product of the net profit margin, asset turnover, and financial
leverage. This decomposition is sometimes referred to as DuPont analysis.
Valuation ratios express the relation between the market value of a company or its equity (for
example, price per share) and some fundamental financial metric (Ex: earnings per share).
Ratio analysis is useful in the selection and valuation of debt and equity securities and is a part
of the credit rating process.
Ratios can also be computed for business segments to evaluate how units within a business are
performing.
The results of financial analysis provide valuable inputs into forecasts of future earnings and
cash flow.
Next Steps
Review the learning outcomes presented in the curriculum. Make sure that you can perform
the implied actions.
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