TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

In this section, we have carried out technical analysis of PVR Ltd. stock listed in NSE
stock exchange. The stock price has been monitored from 4 th May 2015 to 30th
October 2015 i.e. period of 6 months. The methodology used for the analysis is as
follows.

Interpretation of stock price to analyze the buy and sell points

Analysis of recent news linked to PVR Ltd. and its related industry and change
in price accordingly

Find out risk involved with the stock on par with market using Beta

Understand trends and patterns in share price movements using Simple

Moving Average
Analysis of Bollinger bands to track volatility and relative price developments
over time

Analysis of price movements using Relative Strength Index

PVR Ltd. (NSE stock exchange)

PVR Ltd. stock is listed in both BSE as well as NSE stock exchange under Media and
Entertainment (Recreational Services) industry segment. The price movement of the
stock in NSE stock exchange is shown in the following figure for 6 months daily data
(from 4th May 2015 to 30th October 2015).

Figure 1: Price trend PVR Ltd. (Source: NetDania.com)

In span of 6 months the price has changed from Rs. 625 to Rs. 828.45. During this
period we have also tried to analyze the information / news in the market linked to
the company as well its allied industries. These news items are listed below.
Table 1: News / Information linked to PVR Ltd.1

Date
May 29,
2015
May 30,
2015
Jun 9,
2015

News
PVR Q4 net loss at Rs 36.35 crore

Jun 12,
2015
Jun 13,
2015
Jun 16,
2015
Jun 16,
2015
Jul 3, 2015
Jul 5, 2015

PVR to raise 350 crore

Jul 10,
2015
Jul 13,
2015
Jul 23,
2015
Jul 25,
2015
Jul 27,
2015
Jul 28,
2015
Aug 12,
2015
Aug 20,
2015
Sep 4,
2015
Sep 18,
2015

FY-2015: Tepid box office, World Cup Cricket

chop PVR profits
PVR to acquire DT Cinema (for 5 billion
INR)

Source
Daily News &
Analysis
Indiantelevision.com
The Indian Express
&
Reuters Key
Development
Hindu Business Line

PVR Ltd calls for EGM on July 10, 2015 to

issue shares on preferential basis
Multiplex Operator PVR To Raise Funds

Equity Bulls

Jurassic World Brings 'Dinosaur' Gains For

PVR
PVR could see best ever Q1: IDFC
Multiplexes moving into smaller towns; PVR
Cinemas plans to expand to over 1,000
centres by 2018
PVR opens 1239-seat Cinema in
Vadodara, Gujarat
PVR ends 4% up on shareholders's nod to
raise Rs 350 crore via preferential allotment
of shares
PVR Ltd approves NCD issue, preferential
allotment
Morgan Stanley buys 7 lakh shares of
PVR
L Capitals Asia's Subsidiary Ecosys Exits
Multiplex Operator PVR
PVR plans to install Dolby Atmos technology
in 50 cinemas
PVR - Resignation of Directors

NDTV

Ajay Bijli-led PVR Ltd acquires 70% stake in

4700BC Popcorn startup owner Zea Maize
PVR board okays merger with Bijli Holdings

ET Retail

PVR cinemas cancel MSG 2: The Messenger's

show

Hindustan Times

1 Google- Finance

DealCurry

Hindu Business Line

ET Retail
Real Time News,
India
Economic Times
Equity Bulls
Moneycontrol.com
DealCurry
Hindu Business Line
Moneycontrol.com

Hindu Business Line

Sep 20,
2015
Sep 21,
2015
Oct 30,
2015

DLF to open Rs 300-crore Emporio Mall in

Delhi by May 2016
Paytm plans to sell movie and entertainment
tickets; to take on Bookmyshow.com
Jazz Cinemas buys Luxe multiplex

ET Retail
ET Retail
The Hindu

There was a steep increase in the price from July 2015 onwards and during that
period it was in the news that the PVR Ltd. was planning to expand over 1000
centres by 2018, moving into smaller towns. Also, there was preferential allotment
of shares with which they raised Rs 350 crores. During the end of July, Morgan
Stanley bought 7 lakh shares of PVR. The prices rose as high as Rs. 850. During mid
August, the price again fell, which can be linked to resignation of top management
(Directors) in the organization.
BETA Calculation of the stock
Beta of a stock or a portfolio is a measure of volatility in comparison to the market
as a whole. It measures the systematic risk. Beta can be positive or negative.
Beta formula
A beta of 1 indicates that the price of a security will move exactly in the same
proportion and direction as the market. A negative beta implies that the direction of
movement in the price of a security will be opposite to that of the market. For
example, a beta of 1.2 indicates that if the market moves up by 10% then the
security will move up by 12%. There is another measure called the R-squared
value. This value tells us how accurately beta predicts the securitys movement
with respect to movement in the market. R-Squared value can range from 0 to 1.
Higher the R-squared value higher is the predictive power of beta.
The close price of the stock, CNX Media and CNX 500 is given below. This data was
taken from NSE India website (historical data).
Table 2: Close price for PVR, CNX Media, CNX 500

Date
30-1015
29-1015
28-1015
27-1015
26-1015
23-1015
21-1015

PVR
(Rs.)
828.45

Daily
Return
-1.81%

CNX Media
(Rs.)
2405.25

Daily
Return
-1.35%

CNX 500
(Rs.)
6750.95

Daily
Return
-0.50%

843.75

1.42%

2438.15

-1.18%

6784.85

-0.63%

831.9

0.17%

2467.3

-0.62%

6828.15

-0.61%

830.45

0.75%

2482.75

0.21%

6870.35

-0.18%

824.3

0.30%

2477.55

-1.64%

6882.6

-0.44%

821.8

-3.24%

2518.8

-1.24%

6913.05

0.25%

849.3

-0.40%

2550.55

-0.02%

6895.75

-0.16%

Date
20-1015
19-1015
16-1015
15-1015
14-1015
13-1015
12-1015
09-1015
08-1015
07-1015
06-1015
05-1015
01-1015
30-0915
29-0915
28-0915
24-0915
23-0915
22-0915
21-0915
18-0915
16-0915
15-0915

PVR
(Rs.)
852.75

Daily
Return
-0.20%

CNX Media
(Rs.)
2551.1

Daily
Return
0.77%

CNX 500
(Rs.)
6907.1

Daily
Return
-0.01%

854.5

-0.11%

2531.6

1.39%

6907.7

0.54%

855.45

0.74%

2496.8

0.78%

6870.85

0.54%

849.2

1.30%

2477.45

5.20%

6834.05

0.71%

838.3

1.01%

2354.95

-2.54%

6786.05

-0.17%

829.95

0.80%

2416.3

0.15%

6797.55

-0.07%

823.4

-0.59%

2412.75

0.06%

6802.3

-0.40%

828.3

-0.75%

2411.35

0.43%

6829.4

0.52%

834.6

-0.49%

2401.05

-0.25%

6793.8

-0.61%

838.7

-0.86%

2407.15

-0.10%

6835.8

0.25%

846

1.32%

2409.55

-0.77%

6818.65

0.44%

834.95

1.94%

2428.25

0.65%

6789.1

2.02%

819.05

0.34%

2412.6

1.25%

6654.5

0.13%

816.3

1.77%

2382.8

1.10%

6646.1

1.43%

802.1

0.44%

2356.9

0.91%

6552.35

0.43%

798.6

-1.64%

2335.75

-2.36%

6524.25

-0.76%

811.9

-0.53%

2392.25

1.82%

6573.9

0.31%

816.25

0.80%

2349.6

0.17%

6553.9

0.39%

809.8

-1.74%

2345.55

-1.96%

6528.55

-1.78%

824.15

0.94%

2392.5

0.85%

6647.15

0.15%

816.5

0.40%

2372.3

0.91%

6636.95

0.99%

813.25

-1.95%

2350.85

0.09%

6571.6

0.43%

829.45

-2.84%

2348.7

-0.30%

6543.25

-0.60%

Date
14-0915
11-0915
10-0915
09-0915
08-0915
07-0915
04-0915
03-0915
02-0915
01-0915
31-0815
28-0815
27-0815
26-0815
25-0815
24-0815
21-0815
20-0815
19-0815
18-0815
17-0815
14-0815
13-0815

PVR
(Rs.)
853.7

Daily
Return
4.24%

CNX Media
(Rs.)
2355.7

Daily
Return
0.62%

CNX 500
(Rs.)
6582.7

Daily
Return
1.09%

818.95

0.83%

2341.15

0.32%

6511.55

0.11%

812.2

-2.01%

2333.7

0.13%

6504.5

-0.27%

828.9

4.86%

2330.75

2.80%

6522.3

1.80%

790.5

0.75%

2267.2

1.81%

6407

1.32%

784.65

-3.99%

2226.9

-0.70%

6323.4

-1.52%

817.3

-2.34%

2242.7

-1.53%

6421.05

-2.12%

836.85

3.77%

2277.45

1.47%

6560.05

1.30%

806.45

-0.86%

2244.4

-0.76%

6475.65

-0.71%

813.45

-2.32%

2261.7

-2.86%

6522.25

-2.21%

832.8

-0.13%

2328.35

-0.15%

6669.35

-0.37%

833.9

2.09%

2331.95

2.29%

6694.45

0.56%

816.8

4.10%

2279.65

2.16%

6657.25

2.21%

784.65

0.27%

2231.4

1.11%

6513.35

-0.86%

782.5

1.25%

2206.8

2.03%

6569.85

1.17%

772.85

-7.68%

2162.8

-8.05%

6493.85

-6.71%

837.15

-0.09%

2352.15

-2.25%

6961

-0.80%

837.9

-0.19%

2406.4

-2.80%

7016.95

-1.53%

839.5

2.63%

2475.7

0.25%

7125.85

0.27%

818

1.03%

2469.5

-0.22%

7106.4

0.11%

809.65

1.95%

2474.85

-1.03%

7098.7

-0.19%

794.15

-2.71%

2500.55

3.32%

7112.5

1.95%

816.25

-1.31%

2420.1

-0.49%

6976.6

-0.14%

Date
12-0815
11-0815
10-0815
07-0815
06-0815
05-0815
04-0815
03-0815
31-0715
30-0715
29-0715
28-0715
27-0715
24-0715
23-0715
22-0715
21-0715
20-0715
17-0715
16-0715
15-0715
14-0715
13-0715

PVR
(Rs.)
827.05

Daily
Return
2.20%

CNX Media
(Rs.)
2432.1

Daily
Return
-2.69%

CNX 500
(Rs.)
6986.45

Daily
Return
-1.61%

809.25

-3.28%

2499.25

0.25%

7101.1

-0.79%

836.7

-1.54%

2492.95

0.06%

7157.55

-0.37%

849.8

1.47%

2491.55

-0.97%

7183.85

-0.25%

837.5

-0.01%

2515.95

-0.21%

7202

0.22%

837.6

-0.08%

2521.25

1.96%

7186.25

0.70%

838.25

1.04%

2472.75

-0.08%

7136.3

0.10%

829.6

-1.67%

2474.65

0.92%

7129

0.32%

843.65

0.23%

2452.15

0.99%

7106.2

1.23%

841.75

1.67%

2428

-0.02%

7019.6

0.65%

827.9

3.73%

2428.55

2.70%

6974.15

0.56%

798.15

-1.03%

2364.7

-0.87%

6935.65

-0.28%

806.45

0.32%

2385.4

0.97%

6955.35

-1.69%

803.9

-5.79%

2362.55

-0.99%

7074.95

-0.76%

853.3

-0.53%

2386.25

-1.76%

7129.35

-0.28%

857.85

5.25%

2428.95

2.10%

7149.45

1.12%

815.05

0.97%

2379.05

0.53%

7070.3

-1.09%

807.25

3.16%

2366.5

1.26%

7148.5

0.01%

782.55

3.16%

2336.95

0.20%

7148.05

0.16%

758.55

-0.26%

2332.4

0.99%

7136.8

1.01%

760.5

4.06%

2309.55

0.43%

7065.65

0.65%

730.8

2.94%

2299.75

0.76%

7020.25

0.05%

709.95

4.15%

2282.35

3.12%

7016.55

1.17%

Date
10-0715
09-0715
08-0715
07-0715
06-0715
03-0715
02-0715
01-0715
30-0615
29-0615
26-0615
25-0615
24-0615
23-0615
22-0615
19-0615
18-0615
17-0615
16-0615
15-0615
12-0615
11-0615
10-0615

PVR
(Rs.)
681.65

Daily
Return
-0.52%

CNX Media
(Rs.)
2213.35

Daily
Return
1.39%

CNX 500
(Rs.)
6935.55

Daily
Return
0.29%

685.2

0.74%

2182.9

-0.90%

6915.35

-0.35%

680.15

-1.64%

2202.7

-3.01%

6939.7

-1.58%

691.5

-1.31%

2271.15

-0.96%

7051.05

0.11%

700.65

-1.05%

2293.25

1.40%

7043.4

0.56%

708.1

6.23%

2261.6

-0.01%

7003.95

0.29%

666.6

2.33%

2261.9

1.47%

6983.35

0.16%

651.4

2.58%

2229.1

-0.39%

6972.3

1.09%

635

2.45%

2237.85

2.62%

6897.2

0.78%

619.8

-3.13%

2180.75

-1.64%

6843.95

-0.94%

639.8

-2.19%

2217.2

0.56%

6908.85

-0.13%

654.15

-0.17%

2204.75

0.54%

6917.55

0.43%

655.25

-0.11%

2192.85

0.40%

6887.8

-0.36%

656

-0.36%

2184.05

0.02%

6912.45

0.33%

658.35

0.27%

2183.7

1.18%

6889.7

1.54%

656.6

0.13%

2158.25

-0.58%

6785.1

0.57%

655.75

-0.08%

2170.75

-0.34%

6746.85

0.99%

656.25

1.34%

2178.25

1.85%

6680.8

0.81%

647.6

0.54%

2138.7

1.16%

6627

0.40%

644.15

-0.79%

2114.1

1.99%

6600.65

0.35%

649.25

0.36%

2072.95

0.21%

6577.4

0.14%

646.9

0.26%

2068.6

-0.81%

6568.5

-1.83%

645.2

-3.22%

2085.55

1.01%

6691.25

1.18%

Date
09-0615
08-0615
05-0615
04-0615
03-0615
02-0615
01-0615
29-0515
28-0515
27-0515
26-0515
25-0515
22-0515
21-0515
20-0515
19-0515
18-0515
15-0515
14-0515
13-0515
12-0515
11-0515
08-0515

PVR
(Rs.)
666.7

Daily
Return
0.20%

CNX Media
(Rs.)
2064.7

Daily
Return
-0.55%

CNX 500
(Rs.)
6612.9

Daily
Return
-0.28%

665.35

-0.64%

2076.05

-2.86%

6631.3

-1.04%

669.65

0.13%

2137.15

2.01%

6700.7

-0.06%

668.75

2.88%

2095.05

1.13%

6704.75

0.02%

650.05

-3.65%

2071.6

-1.36%

6703.45

-1.41%

674.65

0.30%

2100.1

0.34%

6799.45

-2.27%

672.6

1.03%

2092.95

-0.72%

6957.45

-0.03%

665.75

2.15%

2108.2

0.47%

6959.85

1.34%

651.75

-0.66%

2098.4

-0.24%

6867.75

-0.25%

656.05

-0.55%

2103.45

0.32%

6885.1

-0.08%

659.7

0.79%

2096.8

0.30%

6890.6

-0.30%

654.5

-0.18%

2090.6

0.07%

6911.15

-0.77%

655.65

-0.21%

2089.1

-0.15%

6964.45

0.37%

657.05

1.01%

2092.2

-0.29%

6938.75

-0.08%

650.5

0.64%

2098.25

0.80%

6944.4

0.50%

646.35

-0.58%

2081.5

0.61%

6909.7

-0.02%

650.15

-0.05%

2068.85

3.00%

6910.85

1.23%

650.5

0.88%

2008.65

-0.21%

6827.05

0.45%

644.85

0.74%

2012.85

0.13%

6796.75

0.24%

640.1

0.42%

2010.3

-0.93%

6780.4

1.36%

637.4

-3.32%

2029.1

-2.83%

6689.4

-2.19%

659.3

2.77%

2088.2

1.66%

6839

1.64%

641.55

-0.60%

2054.15

1.23%

6728.9

1.69%

Date
07-0515
06-0515
05-0515
04-0515

PVR
(Rs.)
645.45

Daily
Return
-0.16%

CNX Media
(Rs.)
2029.1

Daily
Return
-0.24%

CNX 500
(Rs.)
6616.85

Daily
Return
-0.96%

646.5

1.52%

2034

-2.12%

6680.9

-2.87%

636.8

0.80%

2078

-1.47%

6878.5

0.07%

631.75

2109.1

6873.4

The beta and R square value for the stock has been calculated wrt NSE stock
exchange (CNX 500) and sectoral index (CNX Media). It was seen that for both the
index, the beta for the stock was less than 1 that means it is less volatile than the
market hence less risky. The beta and R squared values are shown in the table
below.
Table 3: Beta and R square values

Param
eter
Beta

W.R.T. CNX
Media
0.60

R
square
d

0.22

W.R.T. CNX
500
0.94
0.26

(Simple) Moving Averages

(Simple) Moving Averages (SMA) is calculated by computing the average (mean)
price of an Instrument over the chosen period. A 20 day Simple Moving Average will
for each data point show the mean of the 20 last closes of the Instrument. Simple
Moving Average is a lagging indicator more useful to track movements within a
trading range than for predictions. SMA arguably makes it easier to spot trends in
markets. The following figure shows 20 day simple moving average with price of the
stock PVR Ltd. When moving average is above the actual line. So it indicates that it
is a right time to buy the security.

Figure 2: 20 day Simple moving average (PVR Ltd.) Source: NetDania.com

Here, In this case, Moving Average is above the Actual line. So it indicates that it is a
right time to buy the security. In this Graph, we can see that the moving average of
Tata Motors Stock has been decreased. So, it is giving clear picture of future
movement of the scrip. This Graph provides a message to the investor that it is a
right time to buy the Stock of Tata Motors.
Here, in this case, the actual Stock price of Tata Motors is just below its moving
average line. It indicates that investors are becoming increasingly bullish on the
Stock Price of Tata Motors.
Moreover, Stock price and moving Average of Tata Motors has been decreased. It
indicates that investors are becoming increasingly bullish from bearish pattern on
the Stock Price of Tata Motors.
Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands (BB) aims at enabling users to track volatility and relative price
developments over time. BB introduces a trading band on each side of a Simple
Moving Average, defined by adding or subtracting a number of standard deviations,
hereby filtering away extreme data, implying that the analyst should focus on
what goes on within the two trading bands. The Simple Moving Average and the
desired number of standard deviations must defined in the input.
Some traders prefer to trade when the price is close to either of the two BB trading
bands, or to sell when the price closes above the upper band, buy when it closes
below the lower band.
A band plotted two standard deviations away from a simple moving average,
developed by famous technical trader John Bollinger.
Because standard deviation is a measure of volatility, Bollinger Bands adjust
themselves to the market conditions. When the markets become more volatile, the
bands widen (move further away from the average), and during less volatile
periods, the bands contract (move closer to the average). The tightening of the
bands is often used by technical traders as an early indication that the volatility is
about to increase sharply.
This is one of the most popular technical analysis techniques. The closer the prices
move to the upper band, the more overbought the market, and the closer the prices
move to the lower band, the more oversold the market.
Relative Strength Index

RSI the Relative Strength Index - Was developed by J. Welles Wilder in his book New Concepts in
Technical Trading Systems (1979, ISBN 0894590278).
The input for RSI is the X period - number of days (quotes). The RSI then explores each day where gains or
losses were made in the first X days compared to the previous day. The total gains and the total losses are
then sum-totaled and then averaged in two numbers.
After the first gain and loss average are computed, the next ones are computed using the previous values:

The equation to compute the Relative Strength Index is:

J.Welles Wilder suggests to use 14 days RSI and sees a RSI falling below 70 as a bearish trend, while a RSI
rising above 30 is seen by Wilder as a bullish trend. Also RSI is by many considered useful for analysing
divergence between the Instrument price movements and the degree of Overbought or Oversold when
the RSI moves into the extremes above 70 or below 30.

The RSI compares the magnitude of a stock's recent gains to the magnitude of its
recent losses and turns that information into a number that ranges from 0 to 100
A 14 day RSI is calculated for stock it is recommended by wilder that a 14 period
will be a good indicator. By using the simple formula RSI = {100- [100 / (1+RS)]}.It
states that if RSI is below 30 buy & if it crosses above 70 then sell it.
From 2nd April 07 to 31st March 08 the RSI is calculated, the best time to sell the
stock was between 27th Sep 07 to 4th October 07 and 10th December 07 to 12th
December 07 since the RSI was above 70 & it had reached its peak level. The best
time to buy the stock was between 8 th August 07 to 23rd August 07 and 23rd Jan 08 to

24th Jan 08 as well as between 7 th March to 18th March 08 since the RSI was below 30
for these many days.
RSI has been broken down into its basic components: RS, Average Gain and
Average Loss. This RSI calculation is based on 14 periods, which is the default
suggested by Wilder in his book. Losses are expressed as positive values, not
negative values.
The very first calculations for average gain and average loss are simple 14 period
averages.

First Average Gain = Sum of Gains over the past 14 periods / 14.

First Average Loss = Sum of Losses over the past 14 periods / 14

The second, and subsequent, calculations are based on the prior averages and the
current gain loss:

Average Gain = [(previous Average Gain) x 13 + current Gain] / 14.

Average Loss = [(previous Average Loss) x 13 + current Loss] / 14.

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13

Date

Close

04-0515
05-0515
06-0515
07-0515
08-0515
11-0515
12-0515
13-0515
14-0515
15-0515
18-0515
19-0515
20-0515

631.75
636.8
646.5
645.45
641.55
659.3
637.4
640.1
644.85
650.5
650.15
646.35
650.5

Chang
e

Gain

Loss

5.05

5.05

0.00

9.70

9.70

0.00

-1.05

0.00

1.05

-3.90

0.00

3.90

17.75

17.75

0.00

-21.90

0.00

21.90

2.70

2.70

0.00

4.75

4.75

0.00

5.65

5.65

0.00

-0.35

0.00

0.35

-3.80

0.00

3.80

4.15

4.15

0.00

Avg
Gain

Avg
Loss

RS

14-day
RSI

14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39

Date

Close

21-0515
22-0515
25-0515
26-0515
27-0515
28-0515
29-0515
01-0615
02-0615
03-0615
04-0615
05-0615
08-0615
09-0615
10-0615
11-0615
12-0615
15-0615
16-0615
17-0615
18-0615
19-0615
22-0615
23-0615
24-0615
25-06-

657.05

Chang
e

Gain

Loss

Avg
Gain

6.55

6.55

0.00

-1.40

0.00

1.40

4.02

-1.15

0.00

1.15

5.20

5.20

-3.65

Avg
Loss

RS

14-day
RSI

RS

RSI

2.31

1.74

63.47

3.73

2.23

1.67

62.60

0.00

3.84

2.07

1.85

64.95

0.00

3.65

3.56

2.18

1.63

62.00

-4.30

0.00

4.30

3.31

2.34

1.42

58.63

14.00

14.00

0.00

4.07

2.17

1.88

65.26

6.85

6.85

0.00

4.27

2.01

2.12

67.96

2.05

2.05

0.00

4.11

1.87

2.20

68.75

-24.60

0.00

24.60

3.82

3.49

1.09

52.23

18.70

18.70

0.00

4.88

3.24

1.51

60.08

0.90

0.90

0.00

4.60

3.01

1.53

60.42

-4.30

0.00

4.30

4.27

3.10

1.38

57.90

1.35

1.35

0.00

4.06

2.88

1.41

58.49

-21.50

0.00

21.50

3.77

4.21

0.90

47.23

1.70

1.70

0.00

3.62

3.91

0.93

48.09

2.35

2.35

0.00

3.53

3.63

0.97

49.30

-5.10

0.00

5.10

3.28

3.74

0.88

46.74

3.45

3.45

0.00

3.29

3.47

0.95

48.68

8.65

8.65

0.00

3.67

3.22

1.14

53.28

-0.50

0.00

0.50

3.41

3.03

1.13

52.98

0.85

0.85

0.00

3.23

2.81

1.15

53.46

1.75

1.75

0.00

3.12

2.61

1.20

54.47

-2.35

0.00

2.35

2.90

2.59

1.12

52.81

-0.75
-1.10

0.00
0.00

0.75
1.10

2.69
2.50

2.46
2.36

1.09
1.06

52.26
51.41

655.65
654.5
659.7
656.05
651.75
665.75
672.6
674.65
650.05
668.75
669.65
665.35
666.7
645.2
646.9
649.25
644.15
647.6
656.25
655.75
656.6
658.35
656
655.25
654.15

Date

40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64

15
26-0615
29-0615
30-0615
01-0715
02-0715
03-0715
06-0715
07-0715
08-0715
09-0715
10-0715
13-0715
14-0715
15-0715
16-0715
17-0715
20-0715
21-0715
22-0715
23-0715
24-0715
27-0715
28-0715
29-0715
30-0715

Close

639.8
619.8
635
651.4
666.6
708.1
700.65
691.5
680.15
685.2
681.65
709.95
730.8
760.5
758.55
782.55
807.25
815.05
857.85
853.3
803.9
806.45
798.15
827.9
841.75

Chang
e

Gain

Loss

Avg
Gain

Avg
Loss

RS

14-day
RSI

-14.35

0.00

14.35

2.32

3.22

0.72

41.90

-20.00

0.00

20.00

2.16

4.42

0.49

32.80

15.20

15.20

0.00

3.09

4.10

0.75

42.95

16.40

16.40

0.00

4.04

3.81

1.06

51.46

15.20

15.20

0.00

4.84

3.54

1.37

57.76

41.50

41.50

0.00

7.45

3.28

2.27

69.42

-7.45

0.00

7.45

6.92

3.58

1.93

65.90

-9.15

0.00

9.15

6.43

3.98

1.62

61.76

-11.35

0.00

11.35

5.97

4.51

1.32

56.98

5.05

5.05

0.00

5.90

4.18

1.41

58.52

-3.55

0.00

3.55

5.48

4.14

1.32

56.98

28.30

28.30

0.00

7.11

3.84

1.85

64.92

20.85

20.85

0.00

8.09

3.57

2.27

69.40

29.70

29.70

0.00

9.64

3.31

2.91

74.41

-1.95

0.00

1.95

8.95

3.22

2.78

73.56

24.00

24.00

0.00

10.02

2.99

3.36

77.04

24.70

24.70

0.00

11.07

2.77

3.99

79.97

7.80

7.80

0.00

10.84

2.58

4.21

80.80

42.80

42.80

0.00

13.12

2.39

5.49

84.58

-4.55

0.00

4.55

12.18

2.55

4.79

82.72

-49.40

0.00

49.40

11.31

5.89

1.92

65.75

2.55

2.55

0.00

10.69

5.47

1.95

66.14

-8.30

0.00

8.30

9.92

5.67

1.75

63.63

29.75

29.75

0.00

11.34

5.27

2.15

68.28

13.85

13.85

0.00

11.52

4.89

2.35

70.19

65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90

Date

Close

31-0715
03-0815
04-0815
05-0815
06-0815
07-0815
10-0815
11-0815
12-0815
13-0815
14-0815
17-0815
18-0815
19-0815
20-0815
21-0815
24-0815
25-0815
26-0815
27-0815
28-0815
31-0815
01-0915
02-0915
03-0915
04-09-

843.65

Chang
e

Gain

Loss

Avg
Gain

Avg
Loss

RS

14-day
RSI

1.90

1.90

0.00

10.83

4.54

2.38

70.45

-14.05

0.00

14.05

10.06

5.22

1.93

65.83

8.65

8.65

0.00

9.96

4.85

2.05

67.25

-0.65

0.00

0.65

9.25

4.55

2.03

67.03

-0.10

0.00

0.10

8.59

4.23

2.03

66.99

12.30

12.30

0.00

8.85

3.93

2.25

69.26

-13.10

0.00

13.10

8.22

4.58

1.79

64.20

-27.45

0.00

27.45

7.63

6.22

1.23

55.11

17.80

17.80

0.00

8.36

5.77

1.45

59.15

-10.80

0.00

10.80

7.76

6.13

1.27

55.86

-22.10

0.00

22.10

7.21

7.27

0.99

49.77

15.50

15.50

0.00

7.80

6.75

1.15

53.59

8.35

8.35

0.00

7.84

6.27

1.25

55.56

21.50

21.50

0.00

8.81

5.82

1.51

60.22

-1.60

0.00

1.60

8.18

5.52

1.48

59.72

-0.75

0.00

0.75

7.60

5.18

1.47

59.47

-64.30

0.00

64.30

7.06

9.40

0.75

42.87

9.65

9.65

0.00

7.24

8.73

0.83

45.34

2.15

2.15

0.00

6.88

8.11

0.85

45.90

32.15

32.15

0.00

8.68

7.53

1.15

53.56

17.10

17.10

0.00

9.29

6.99

1.33

57.05

-1.10

0.00

1.10

8.62

6.57

1.31

56.75

-19.35

0.00

19.35

8.01

7.48

1.07

51.69

-7.00

0.00

7.00

7.43

7.45

1.00

49.95

30.40
-19.55

30.40
0.00

0.00
19.55

9.07
8.43

6.92
7.82

1.31
1.08

56.75
51.87

829.6
838.25
837.6
837.5
849.8
836.7
809.25
827.05
816.25
794.15
809.65
818
839.5
837.9
837.15
772.85
782.5
784.65
816.8
833.9
832.8
813.45
806.45
836.85
817.3

Date

91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115

15
07-0915
08-0915
09-0915
10-0915
11-0915
14-0915
15-0915
16-0915
18-0915
21-0915
22-0915
23-0915
24-0915
28-0915
29-0915
30-0915
01-1015
05-1015
06-1015
07-1015
08-1015
09-1015
12-1015
13-1015
14-1015

Close

784.65
790.5
828.9
812.2
818.95
853.7
829.45
813.25
816.5
824.15
809.8
816.25
811.9
798.6
802.1
816.3
819.05
834.95
846
838.7
834.6
828.3
823.4
829.95
838.3

Chang
e

Gain

Loss

Avg
Gain

Avg
Loss

RS

14-day
RSI

-32.65

0.00

32.65

7.82

9.59

0.82

44.92

5.85

5.85

0.00

7.68

8.91

0.86

46.31

38.40

38.40

0.00

9.88

8.27

1.19

54.43

-16.70

0.00

16.70

9.17

8.87

1.03

50.83

6.75

6.75

0.00

9.00

8.24

1.09

52.20

34.75

34.75

0.00

10.84

7.65

1.42

58.62

-24.25

0.00

24.25

10.06

8.84

1.14

53.25

-16.20

0.00

16.20

9.35

9.36

1.00

49.95

3.25

3.25

0.00

8.91

8.69

1.02

50.61

7.65

7.65

0.00

8.82

8.07

1.09

52.21

-14.35

0.00

14.35

8.19

8.52

0.96

49.01

6.45

6.45

0.00

8.07

7.91

1.02

50.48

-4.35

0.00

4.35

7.49

7.66

0.98

49.44

-13.30

0.00

13.30

6.95

8.06

0.86

46.32

3.50

3.50

0.00

6.71

7.49

0.90

47.26

14.20

14.20

0.00

7.24

6.95

1.04

51.03

2.75

2.75

0.00

6.92

6.45

1.07

51.75

15.90

15.90

0.00

7.56

5.99

1.26

55.79

11.05

11.05

0.00

7.81

5.57

1.40

58.40

-7.30

0.00

7.30

7.25

5.69

1.28

56.05

-4.10

0.00

4.10

6.74

5.58

1.21

54.71

-6.30

0.00

6.30

6.26

5.63

1.11

52.64

-4.90

0.00

4.90

5.81

5.58

1.04

51.02

6.55

6.55

0.00

5.86

5.18

1.13

53.10

8.35

8.35

0.00

6.04

4.81

1.26

55.68

Date
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126

15-1015
16-1015
19-1015
20-1015
21-1015
23-1015
26-1015
27-1015
28-1015
29-1015
30-1015

Close

Chang
e

Gain

Loss

Avg
Gain

Avg
Loss

RS

14-day
RSI

849.2
10.90

10.90

0.00

6.39

4.46

1.43

58.86

6.25

6.25

0.00

6.38

4.15

1.54

60.60

-0.95

0.00

0.95

5.92

3.92

1.51

60.19

-1.75

0.00

1.75

5.50

3.76

1.46

59.37

-3.45

0.00

3.45

5.11

3.74

1.37

57.72

-27.50

0.00

27.50

4.74

5.44

0.87

46.58

2.50

2.50

0.00

4.58

5.05

0.91

47.57

6.15

6.15

0.00

4.69

4.69

1.00

50.03

1.45

1.45

0.00

4.46

4.35

1.02

50.61

11.85

11.85

0.00

4.99

4.04

1.23

55.24

-15.30

0.00

15.30

4.63

4.85

0.96

48.87

855.45
854.5
852.75
849.3
821.8
824.3
830.45
831.9
843.75
828.45

The Beta factor describes the movement in a stocks or a

portfolios returns in relation to that of the market return. The
main purpose of using Slope or Beta is to predict the change in
the market. Beta is a measure of the market or non-diversible
risk associated with any given security in the market. The
formula for predicting Beta is as follows:
Market Value of Beta = P1-P0 / P0*100
Where,
P1 Todays Close.
P0 Previous Close.
Beta = Cov (x,y) / var (x)
Where,
X Market Value of Nifty
Y Market Value of the Scrip
The analysis is done based on the following rule:
If the beta is 1 The shares movement will be along
with the market.
If the beta is >1 The shares movement will be more
volatile than the market.
If the beta is <1 The shares movement will be less
volatile than the market.

For a 14-period RSI, the Average Gain equals the sum total all
gains divided by 14. Even if there are only 5 gains (losses), the
total of those 5 gains (losses) is divided by the total number
of RSI periods in the calculation (14 in this case). The Average
Loss is computed in a similar manner. When the Average Gain
is greater than the Average Loss, the RSI rises because RS will
be greater than 1. Conversely, when the average loss is greater
than the average gain, the RSI declines because RS will be less
than 1. The last part of the formula ensures that the indicator
oscillates between 0 and 100. Note: If the Average Loss ever
becomes zero, RSI becomes 100 by definition.

SUGGESTIONS / LEARNINGS:

Before going to invest, an investor should have clear and adequate

knowledge of capital market.
Investor should keep into mind following 2 things:
o Investment horizon (time)
o Objective / motive for the investment
Dont be greedy
Diversify your portfolio to hedge risk
It is better to go for long term investment rather than the short term
investment.
Little knowledge is dangerous.
Do not overreact
Dont be over confident
Investors should also look into global pressure and market movement in order
to look for avenues of investing in different stocks and to take position; some
of the sources for understanding global pressure are CNBC TV18, News Paper,
Economy watch etc.