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October 2013

CONSUMER TREND CANVAS

Understand and apply any consumer trend. Today.

trendwatching.com/trends/consumertrendcanvas

Consumer trends are, at their heart, an essential part

of uncovering innovation opportunities. Otherwise
theyre just intellectual masturbation: diverting,
pleasant and entertaining, but with little real purpose ;)
Yet we frequently hear that trends feel mysterious
and opaque. Which is why this month were
introducing the CONSUMER TREND CANVAS* rather
than bringing you another Big Consumer Trend.
* Generously inspired by Alex OsterwaldersBusiness Model Canvas; )

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CONSUMER TREND CANVAS

CONSUMER TREND
CANVAS
An easy-to-follow framework that
will help you not only unpack and
understand any consumer trend,
but also help you apply it to launch
successful consumer-facing innovations
of your own.

How & when to use the CONSUMER TREND CANVAS

1. Print the blank canvas on the next page. Print it
as big as you can (A3 and up)!
2. Take the trend that you are interested in
exploring further (either from us, or elsewhere!).
3. As you analyze the trend, fill out the left hand
side of the canvas (Understand) with insights,
data and examples. Then use the Apply section
on the right hand side to capture your ideas.
4. Keep on circling back to re-examine how the
segments relate to each other. Insights in one
segment may highlight other elements of the
trend and help you uncover truly novel concepts.
5. Also, try using it to structure an innovation
session with your team or a client. Then enjoy
that a-ha! moment as people both understand
what a trend is all about, and how to make the
most of it ;)

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CONSUMER TREND CANVAS

CONSUMER TREND CANVAS - PRETAIL example

Check out the worked example below, using
our PRETAIL trend:

PRETAIL
A mode of consumption that sees
consumers treat crowdfunding
platforms as the new shopping
malls. Why? Because thats where
current consumer demand for
more innovative, exciting and
unique products and services is
being served better than anywhere
else, by an army of entrepreneurs
and start-ups.

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CONSUMER TREND CANVAS

1. UNDERSTAND
The left hand side of the
CONSUMER TREND CANVAS will
help you unpack and understand
the trend you are examining.

Basic Needs

Drivers of Change

Emerging Consumer
Expectations

Inspiration

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CONSUMER TREND CANVAS

UNDERSTAND

Basic Needs
What deep consumer needs & desires does this trend address?

Basic Needs

Consumer trends and consumer behaviors more broadly are ultimately driven
by basic, fundamental, rarely-if-ever-changing human needs and desires. Identifying

What deep consumer needs & desires does this trend address ?

these underlying needs is central to understanding any consumer trend.

Where to start? How about these:

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CONSUMER TREND CANVAS

Social status
Self-improvement
Entertainment
Excitement
Connection
Security
Identity

Relevance
Social interaction
Creativity
Fairness

PRETAIL example

Basic Needs
What deep consumer needs & desires does this trend address?

PRESUMERS are driven by the status and excitement of

being ultra-early adopters, the connection to the product
& the story, and the increased relevance that specific,
niche products can offer.

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CONSUMER TREND CANVAS

UNDERSTAND

Drivers of Change
Why is this trend emerging now? Whats changing?

There are no consumer trends without

Drivers of Change
Why is this trend emerging now? Whats changing?
Shifts: Long-term, widespread macro changes

Triggers: Recent, short-term changes or technologies

Triggers are the more immediate

change. Savvy and switched-on

changes that drive the emergence of

business professionals constantly

a consumer trend. These can include

ask Whats changing?, looking for

specific technologies, political events,

shifts that make it possible to service

economic shocks, environmental

consumers basic needs and wants in

incidents, and more. For example,

novel, exciting better ways.

developments in visual search

To analyze change, think Shifts and

Triggers:
Shifts are the long-term, macro
changes that are playing out across
years or even decades, that while not
consumer trends themselves, will
shape both the direction and flavor of
a specific trend. For a good summary

technologies are driving the POINTKNOW-BUY trend.

Look at the data behind the trend. Rapid
growth or sudden shifts, even if the
absolute numbers might be small, are
worth attention. Think sales volumes,
consumer behaviors or attitudes, social
media chatter, etc.

of the macro shifts currently shaping

TIP: Strategic frameworks can be

the world, see Euromonitors 10

useful tools to analyze external change.

Global Macro Trends for the Next

Check out the PESTLE model (Political,

Five Years (such as urban transition,

Economic, Social, Technological, Legal

ageing world and climate challenge).

and Environmental) and its various

adaptations.

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CONSUMER TREND CANVAS

PRETAIL example

Drivers of Change
Why is this trend emerging now? Whats changing?

Shifts
The flattening of the global marketplace, falling barriers for entrepreneurs and the
booming maker culture, all fuel the number and variety of startups and innovators
serving every consumer need.
Experienced consumers are increasingly bored with the abundance of bland, massproduced products and brands.

Triggers
Platforms such as Kickstarter enable direct producer-consumer relationships.
Increased use of transparent and real identities online (on social networks) reduces
the perceived risk of pre-ordering products via a sense of public accountability.

Data Points
Number of crowdfunding platforms grew from 100 in 2007 to 452 in 2012
(Massolution/The Economist, May 2012).
In 2012 donations & reward-based crowdfunding grew 85% to USD 1.4 billion
(Massolution, April 2013).
Kickstarter reported growth rates of 238% in USD pledged, and 134% in the number
of people pledging money in 2012.
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CONSUMER TREND CANVAS

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UNDERSTAND

Emerging Consumer Expectations

What new consumer needs, wants and expectations are created by the changes
identified above? Where and how does this trend satisfy them?

Emerging Consumer
Expectations

New consumer trends emerge when basic

Ask yourself, what do the consumers embracing

human needs bump up against external change

the brands, products and services that exemplify

to create (or unlock) new needs, wants and

this trend now want and even expect*?

desires. When identifying these newly emerging

above? Where and how does this trend satisfy them?

needs, wants and desires, look for expectation

gaps between what consumers want, and what
they currently have.
For example, the epic social shift away from
strict formality has led to people embracing
more human and irreverent brands such as
Zappos, Ben & Jerrys and a whole host of

Write down answers, using these prompts (and

others you can think of) to start your sentences:
The ability to / Improved access to
/ Freedom to / Freedom from / The
experience of / A service that / A more
affordable / A better quality / A more
enjoyable / A more social

others. Disillusionment with the big, bad and dirty

corporate world continues to stoke consumer

* Pay careful attention to other industries.

enthusiasm for transparent, honest CLEAN

Consumers dont think in industry silos. Once a

SLATE BRANDS (from Toms to Tesla).

level of quality or service has been established

Another example: in the music industry, digital

in one industry, consumers wont care about

technologies triggered consumers to expect

infinite choice and instant access to music, on
their terms. The ACCESSHIP trend exemplified
by services such as Spotify was a natural
response.

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CONSUMER TREND CANVAS

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why its different in your industry. Rather, theyll

enthusiastically rush to whoever gets it right first
(whether thats your competitor, or a new startup).

Emerging Consumer Expectations

PRETAIL example

What new consumer needs, wants and expectations are created by the changes
identified above? Where and how does this trend satisfy them?

Thanks to the abundance of choice in the consumer arena,

its now expected that that there will be a (brilliant) product
or service out there that caters to every niche or taste, no
matter how individual or bizarre.
Consumers relish the chance to be involved with products
they care passionately about, and crowdfunding platforms
where they can offer feedback and potentially shape the
final product satisfy this desire better than simply buying
traditional products.

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CONSUMER TREND CANVAS

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UNDERSTAND

Inspiration
How are other businesses applying this trend?

Inspiration
How are other businesses applying this trend ?

Regular readers will know that we

So try this: look at existing business

always turn to real-world examples

innovations, understand* them, then

to illustrate trends. Why? Because

adapt them to your business. To gain

actually seeing what other businesses,

as wide a perspective as possible, look

entrepreneurs, non-profits, governments

specifically at other industries, other

even, are already doing with the trend is

regions or cultures, or other types of

a great way to better understand it (and

business (e.g. corporate versus start-

gain inspiration ;).

ups).

Indeed, very few innovations are totally

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CONSUMER TREND CANVAS

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new. Most (successful) innovation

* Understand from the point of view of

comes from combining seemingly

those people living this trend, which of

unrelated elements, or taking something

course may not necessarily align with

and deploying it in a new context.

your own personal likes and aspirations.

PRETAIL example

Inspiration
How are other businesses applying this trend?

Look at the diversity of crowdfunding platforms. While

Kickstarter is the largest and most well-established, there
are plenty of other sites that co-exist. Check out Razoo (for
non-profits), AppStori (apps), Gambitious (video games),
Lucky Ant (hyper-local physical businesses) and more!

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CONSUMER TREND CANVAS

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2. apply
The right hand side of the
CONSUMER TREND CANVAS
is all about identifying what
opportunities this trend can
present for your business.

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CONSUMER TREND CANVAS

Innovation Potential

Who

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apply

Innovation Potential
How and where could you apply this trend to your business?

Weve long said that when thinking about

So, consumer trends can trigger both BIG

a consumer trend, it helps to consider how

and small innovations.

and where it could impact your business

using these four areas:
Vision

If youre the CEO, youre probably more

interested in whether the consumer trend
youre analyzing is going to lead to deep,

How will the deeper shifts underlying this

brand-shattering (or -building!) disruption.

trend shape your companys long-term

If youre a brand manager, youll be

vision?

thinking more about how to use the trend

Business Model
Can you apply this trend to launch a
whole new business venture or brand?
Product / Service / Experience

to inform and improve your marketing

campaigns.
Not all trends will apply equally to all
businesses or regions.

What new products and services could

How and where you apply the trend

you create in light of this trend? How will

will depend on your business. A luxury

you adapt your current products and

brand may actively choose to ignore

services?

the DEALER-CHIC trend. In Asia, where

Campaign
How can you incorporate this trend into
your campaigns, and show consumers

admitting error means a loss of face, the

FLAWSOME trend is less relevant. For
now.

you speak their language, that you get it.

TIP: List 20 assumptions about your brand/ current business model/ product range & service design/
marketing. Then imagine how this trend might overturn them. What do you uncover?

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CONSUMER TREND CANVAS

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PRETAIL example

Innovation Potential
How and where could you apply this trend to your business?

Vision

Product / Service / Experience

How will participating in the

Could you crowdfund your next new

production process change & shape

consumer expectations?
Business Model
Could you de-risk your new product
pipeline by pre-selling new products

and give successful projects shelf

space?

valuable feedback?

Could you invite consumers

Why not take a leaf from

crowdfunding platforms and offer
exclusive perks for those who pay
more?

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trend and partner with a PRETAILER

Campaign

platform of your own?

CONSUMER TREND CANVAS

Retail brands, why not embrace this

to build excitement and gain

Could your brand launch a PRETAIL

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product(s)?

to crowdfund products? For

successfully funded projects,
campaigns could promote how
much money a product raised via
crowdfunding.

apply

Who
Which (new) customer groups could you apply this trend to? What would you have to change?

Say trends and many people instantly

to make this trend relevant for other

think of demographics. And of course,

(new) demographics is a great way to

consumers that share certain traits

come up with new innovations.

(whether in age, income, lifestyle, tribe,

location etc.) will often have similar
tastes and preferences.

CONSUMER TREND CANVAS

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the margins and at what extreme users

are currently doing. New consumer

But when it comes to applying

behaviors usually start with certain

consumer trends, try thinking beyond

(niche) segments, before evolving

those who are currently living the

and spreading throughout the mass

trend. Indeed, thinking about what

market.

changes you would have to make,

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Need further inspiration? Then look to

Who

PRETAIL example

Which (new) customer groups could you apply this trend to? What
would you have to change?

PRETAIL is currently the preserve of younger, more

educated, wealthier, more male consumers (i.e. typical online
early adopters). What changes could you make to broaden
this demographic? An insurance policy that might convince
older consumers to purchase items? A site that curated
more female-orientated products?
What about targeting a specific (new) niche? For example:
when will we see the first luxury PRETAIL platform?
Homeware? Food?

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CONSUMER TREND CANVAS

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GET GOING!
Yes, the CONSUMER TREND CANVAS is a tool that will help you understand and make the most of
a consumer trend youre interested in exploring further, but in reality, its just that: a tool.
In order to make the most of it, you need to actually do something with it. Start now. Download a
printable blank canvas, grab a trend, and start filling it in. Or even better, schedule a session with
your team or a client and see what you come up with.
One final tip: have some fun. Trend watching is about coming up with (and launching) exciting new
products and services for your customers, nothing more and nothing less.
No matter where in the world you are currently reading this, the number of opportunities out there
right now is truly staggering. Around the globe, billions of consumers - from the experienced,
demanding (and yes sometimes jaded), to the new, expectant and aspirational - crave brands,
products and services that make life more exciting, cheaper, more efficient, more sustainable, richer
and simply better than it currently is.
Will it be you that delivers, or someone else?
Our next free Trend Briefing will hit your inbox on 29 October 2013, so make sure youre subscribed.
Want to go all out on applying trends? Then check out ourpaid services: either our onlinePremium
Service(which comes with a full Apply Toolkit), or our in-personAPPLY Workshops. Your
customers will thank you ;)
For now, good luck on applying those trends!

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CONSUMER TREND CANVAS

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