First Principles of Finance
First Principles of Finance
First Principles of Finance
Section 1
m
525
75
450
125
325
Example 2:
Assuming the entitys debt is in the form of convertible unsecured bonds (cubs)
Assume that the entity used in Example 1 has in issue 750m cubs, convertible in 2008. The conversion
ratio is five shares per 100 of the bond. Undiluted EPS is 186p as shown above. If all the holders of the
bonds convert their holding into ordinary shares, this would mean an extra 375 million shares being
issued in 2008 (750m/100 x 5) to give total number of issued shares of 2125 million (175 million existing
shares plus 375 million new shares). The fully diluted EPS is now 325m/2125 million 153p.
The entity hopes, of course, that earnings will increase before conversion takes place; the fully diluted
calculation is done merely to show what would happen if earnings stood still.
An important point to remember is that EPS is a historic figure and can be manipulated by changes in
accounting policies, mergers or acquisitions and so on. It is future earnings that should concern
investors.
The price/earnings ratio
The price/earnings ratio expresses in a single figure the relationship between the market price of an
entitys shares and the earnings per share. It is calculated as:
Price per share Earnings per share
Using Example 1 above, and assuming that the entitys current share price is 2,250p, the P/E ratio would
be 2,250p 186p = 12.
The P/E ratio is often referred to as the market capitalisation rate. This simply means that the market
value of the entitys equity can be calculated by multiplying last years earnings per share by the P/E ratio
(to give the share price) then multiplying by the number of shares in issue.
The P/E is the reciprocal (in maths, a number or quantity divided into 1) of the earnings yield. Again using
Example 1 above, the gross earnings yield is 186p/2,250p x 100 = 83%. This is earnings as a
percentage of the current share price. The P/E is therefore the reciprocal of this: 1 0083 = 12.
Section 2
Perpetuities rarely exist in real life. They are useful, however, to simplify calculations, particularly in
examination conditions.
Example 4
Assume an entity is considering an investment that has the following forecast net after tax cash flows:
Year
US$000
0
250
1
35
2
48
3
56
4
68
5
72
After tax cash flows are expected to fall to US$6m in year 6 and for the purposes of evaluation the entity
assumes this annual net cash flow will maintain in perpetuity from year 6 onwards. The calculation of
NPV assuming a 20% discount rate is as follows:
Year
All figures in $m
Initial investment
Net operating cash flows
Terminal value (6m/02)
Discount factor (at 20%)
Discounted cash flows
Cumulative DCFs
35
48
56
68
0833
29
-221
0694
33
0188
0579
32
-155
0482
33
-122
72
3000
0402
149
2-7
(=NPV)
-250
1
-250
-250
The present value of the terminal value is calculated by dividing US$6m (the expected annual net cash
flow from year 6 onwards) by 020 (the discount rate). This gives US$30m, which is the value of a
perpetual income stream of US$6m per annum if the required rate of return is 20%. However, this is the
value of the cash flow stream beginning at the end of year 5. It must be discounted back to the present
using the five-year discount factor, which is 0402.
By convention cash flows, with the exception of the initial investment, are usually assumed to occur at
the end of the year for evaluation purposes. This is not realistic of course, and half-yearly discount tables
are sometimes used if cash flows are assumed to occur evenly throughout the year. However, simplifying
assumptions sometimes have to be made in real life as well as in examinations as the effort involved in
trying to estimate cash flows, say, monthly is usually not worth the relatively small increase in accuracy.
A final point on the calculation of present values concerns the use of real or nominal rates of interest
terms often confused by candidates. Real means in todays money, that is with no estimate for inflation.
Nominal means after adjusting for expected inflation that is the actual cash you expect to receive in
the future. It is important to remember that if cash flows have been adjusted for inflation (that is they are
nominal), the discount rate should also include an inflation component.
If cash flows have been adjusted for inflation (that is they are nominal), the discount rate should also
include an inflation component. If cash flows are real then the discount rate should not include any
inflation component. If real cash flows are discounted at a nominal rate, the value of the investment in
under-stated. Conversely, if nominal cash flows are discounted at a real rate, the value of an investment
will be over-stated. These statements assume, of course, that inflation is positive.
Note that if an exam question gives a nominal discount rate, says that cash flows are real and gives an
inflation rate, the expectation is that candidates will inflate the real cash flows recognising the year on
year compounding effect and apply the nominal discount rate. However, candidates would gain some
credit if they used the real cash flows in the evaluation as long as they also adjusted the discount rate to a
real rate.
The yield to maturity (YTM)
When a bond or debenture or any fixed interest debt is issued, it carries a coupon rate. This is the
interest rate which is payable on the face, or nominal value of the debt. Unlike shares, which are rarely
issued at their nominal value, debt is frequently issued at par usually 100 payable for 100 nominal of
the bond. At the time of issue the interest rate will be fixed according to interest rates available in the
market at that time for bonds of similar maturity. The credit rating of the entity will also have an impact
on the rate of interest demanded by the market.
The yield to maturity (or redemption) is the effective yield on a redeemable security, taking into account
any gain or loss due to the fact that it was purchased at a price different from the redemption value.
Example 5
You are asked to put a price on a bond with a coupon rate of 8%. It will repay its face value of 100 at
the end of 15 years (t). Other similar bonds have a yield to maturity of 12% (r).
The price of the bond is:
8 x (annuity factor for t = 15, r = 12) + 100 x (discount factor for t = 15, r = 12)
= (8 x 6811) + (100 x 01827) = 7276
What we are doing here is adding the NPV of 15 years of interest payments to the present value of the
sum receivable on redemption.
The example can be turned round to calculate the YTM. If the price of the bond is known to be 7840,
what is the yield to redemption? This is basically an internal rate of return calculation and the answer is
approximately 11%.
A connected issue which is frequently misunderstood by candidates is the relationship of face, or
nominal, value to market value and coupon rate (on debt) to rate of return. The relationship of nominal
value to market value of shares is discussed later in this article. In this section debt, or bonds, are
discussed.
Example 6
An entity issues bonds at par (the face or nominal value) with a coupon rate of 12%. This means that for
every 100 of debt the buyer will receive 12 per annum in gross interest. Assume that interest is payable
annually (it is usually paid bi-annually but this would require more tricky calculations). Mr. A bought
1,000 of this debt on 1 January 2003. He will receive 120 in interest every year as long as he owns the
bond. This might be until it matures, if it is dated debt, or it might be when he sells it in the market. If the
opportunity cost to investors of bonds of similar risk and maturity is 12%, then the coupon rate and the
rate of return are the same.
However, assume that inflation increased at a much higher rate than expected by the market when the
bond was issued. In January 2007, the opportunity cost to investors of similar bonds has risen to 15%.
Mr. A continues to receive 120 on his 1,000 nominal value but no new buyer would pay 1,000 to get
a return of 12% they now want 15%. The price of the bond therefore falls to the level where the
return on the debt is 15%. This is 80 per 100 nominal of the bond.
Mr. B buys 1,000 nominal of the bond in January 2007. He will receive 120 per year in interest, just
like Mr. A, but as Mr. B will have paid only 800 for the 100 bond his return is 15% (120/800 x 100).
The coupon rate stays at 12%, the nominal value at 1,000 but the rate of return is 15% and the market
value 800.
Section 3
Nominal value
Many candidates in the Paper P9 examination appear not to understand the relationship between
nominal value and market value of shares. In fact, there is no express relationship, although a common
misunderstanding is that it is the price at which the shares were originally issued. This is not necessarily
the case.
Ordinary shares may be issued with a nominal value of say, 10p each. These shares will continue to be
referred to as 10p shares even though the price at which they are bought and sold on the stock market
may differ substantially from this.
Dividends are usually paid in pence per share and are not based on nominal values, as is usually the case
with fixed interest securities.
Book value
Book values apply to both assets and liabilities. The book value of an asset is the net result of the
accounting procedures and adjustments to which the balance has been subjected; for example
depreciation charges. However, it is not necessarily any guide to the true market value of the asset.
Paper P9 is more likely to be concerned with the differences between book and market values of
shareholders equity a liability. In book-value terms this is the sum of the ordinary share capital shown in
the balance sheet plus the value of all shareholders reserves (share premium account, revaluation reserve,
retained earnings and so on.) This value may be quite different from the market value of equity. This is
mainly because (a) it reflects accounting procedures and adjustments and (b) it is a historic figure. Market
values reflect investors expectations about future earnings from the entitys assets.
Market value
This is the value of an asset based on the amount it is believed it would command if sold. Some assets,
such as securities, are traded regularly on an organised market and their value is relatively simple to
establish. The market value of, for example, specialised plant and machinery may, however, be more
difficult to establish.
The market value of shares in a public listed entity is simply the share price multiplied by the number of
shares in issue. The share price reflects investors expectations of future earnings; the book value reflects
the accounting value of past asset purchases and earnings.
An error sometimes made by candidates is to calculate the market value of equity by correctly multiplying
the share price by the number of shares in issue, then adding the accounting value of reserves. This is
mixing together two different things.
Section 4
Depreciation is the recognition in accounting of the diminution in the value of fixed assets, which occurs
as a result of time or use. The calculated amount of depreciation for a period of time is credited to the
asset account in the balance sheet, thus reducing its book value, and debited to the profit and loss
account, thus showing the cost of using the asset as a charge against revenue. There are many different
methods used for calculating depreciation, each based on a different concept.
The Paper P9 syllabus is not specifically concerned with the accounting treatment or methods of
depreciation. The key point to remember is that depreciation is not cash. If a question requires a
discounted cash flow calculation based on profit figures that include depreciation (or other non-cash
items) then these items have to be added back to profits or losses to arrive at operational cash flows.
However, tax depreciation allowances (called the tax shield in the USA and many text books) do have a
cash value. The important point is that tax depreciation allowances themselves are not cash, but they
affect the tax liability of an entity, which in turn affects tax payable or refundable. Tax depreciation
allowances do therefore have an effect on cash flow and their calculation needs to be understood.
Different tax depreciation allowance rates may apply to different types of asset and it is important to note
that the rate of book depreciation, which is determined by the entity, does not have to be the same as
the rate of the tax depreciation allowance, which is determined by a countrys tax authority.
The following simple example combines the above points.
Example 7
An entity is planning an investment that requires capital expenditure of 100m in machinery. This capital
cost will be written off against the profits from the investment in equal instalments over 4 years; the
investments expected life. The investment will attract tax depreciation allowances of 25% per annum on
a reducing balance basis. The entity pays tax at 20% per annum, payable in the year the liability arises. Its
cost of capital is 10% per annum.
The pre-tax profit forecast for the next 4 years, after deducting depreciation, is as follows:
Year
Pre-tax profits (m)
1
10
2
25
3
40
4
50
Calculate the NPV of the investment. Assume that, apart from depreciation, profit equals cash flow. All
figures (except the discount factor) are in m and rounded to the nearest whole number for convenience.
Step 1 calculate tax depreciation allowances
Tax relief at 20%
Investment
100
Year 1 allowance 25%
25
Written down value
75
Year 2 allowance 25%
19
Written down value
56
Year 3 allowance 25%
14
Written down value
42
Year 4 allowance 25%
11
Written down value
32
(and balancing allowance)
Total relief over the life of the asset
5
4
3
20
0
-100
-100
1
-100
1
35
7
-5
2
2
50
10
-4
6
3
65
13
-3
10
4
50
25
75
4
75
15
-8
7
35
-2
33
0909
30
50
-6
44
0826
36
65
-10
55
0751
41
75
-7
68
0683
46
Concluding comment:
This article is not intended to replace any of the study texts. Its purpose is to highlight some
basic concepts and procedures which many candidates fail to fully understand. If anything
discussed above is new to the reader, or poorly understood, they should study that particular
aspect in one of the recommended texts.
Readings
CIMA Study System 2006 Edition by John Ogilvie and Christine Parkinson
CIMA Official Terminology 2005 Edition
Both published by CIMA Publishing and Elsevier and available to buy via the CIMA website. Go to the
following link: www.cimapublishing.com