The Global Epidemic of Confusing

Hypotheses with Predictions

Fixing an International Problem

Paul Strode
Fairview High School
Boulder, Colorado

The Scientific Hypothesis

Survey:
Write the definition of a hypothesis in science.
A farmer observes that one edge of his onion
field produces taller plants and larger onions.
This same edge borders a prairie that the
farmer has been slowly restoring over the last
10 years. Every two years the farmer initiates a
controlled burn in the prairie to clear out
invasive species. Each year he burns the
prairie, it grows back greener than in the years
he doesn t burn it.
Write a hypothesis about this observation that
the farmer could test with an experiment:

Hypothesis vs. Prediction

We routinely use the term hypothesis when we mean
prediction. This unacceptable substitution dilutes the power of
the scientific method to the extent that invoking the scientific
method has become largely meaningless Guy McPherson,
American Biology Teacher, April 2001

Oxford English Dictionary:

Hypothesis - In the sciences, a provisional
supposition from which to draw conclusions
that shall be in accordance with known facts,
and which serves as a starting-point for
further investigation.
Prediction - The action of predicting future
events; an instance of this, a prophecy, a
forecast.

Hypothesis vs. Prediction

How textbooks define the hypothesis:
Wilbraham A.C. et al. (Pearson Prentice Hall 2008) Chemistry:
the Molecular Nature of Matter and Change
Hypothesis - A proposed explanation for an observation. (p.
22)
Serway and Faughn (Holt, Reinhalt, and Winston 2009)
Physics
A reasonable explanation for observations--one that can be
tested with additional experiments. (p. 8)
He hypothesized instead that all objects fall at the same rate
in the absence of air resistance. (p. 8)
Campbell and Reece (2008) Biology, 8th Ed.:
Hypothesis - A tentative answer to a well-framed question--an
explanation on trial. (p. 19)

Hypothesis vs. Prediction

Hypothesis in science:
A tentative, testable, and falsifiable explanation for an
observed phenomenon in nature.

Hypothesis vs. Prediction

How textbooks sometimes screw it up:
Padilla, M.J. (Pearson Education 2009) Earth Science
Hypothesis: A possible explanation for a set of observations or answer to a scientific
question. (p. 8)
Example: If I add salt to fresh water, then the water will freeze at a lower
temperature. (p. 788)
Miller, K. R., and J. Levine (Pearson Education 2009) Biology
Hypothesis: A scientific explanation for a set of observations that can be tested in
ways that support or reject it. (p. 7)
Lab Prompt: Form a hypothesis: given the objective of this lab and the materials you
have to work with, what kind of change, if any, do you expect to see in the pH of
the kimchi over the course of several weeks. (p. 266)
McGraw-Hill 2012 Middle School Science Textbook Program: iScience
Form a Hypothesis: Use your data to form a hypothesis relating the amount of light
to the rate of photosynthesis. State your hypotheses in this form: if . . . then . . .
because.

Using Hypotheses and Predictions in the Scientific

Process (from Campbell Biology 2008)
Example:
Observation: flashlight doesn t work.
1. Explanation (hypothesis): the batteries are dead.
2. Explanation (hypothesis): the bulb is burned out.
Prediction #1 (with methods): replacing the batteries will make the flashlight
work.
If the dead battery hypothesis is correct, and I replace the batteries with new
ones, then the flashlight should work.
Flashlight works! Test of hypothesis #1 supports/does not falsify the
hypothesis.
The above hypothesis is both testable and falsifiable.

Hypothesis testing is natural behavior

Playing with electricity (from Paul Strode

s childhood)

Problem (engineering): Battery operated car does not go

fast enough.
Engineering goal: Make car go faster.
Hypothesis: Electricity is more powerful than batteries.
Prediction (with methods): Powering car with electricity will
make it go faster.

If electricity is more powerful than batteries,

and I replace the batteries with electricity
from an outlet, then my car will go faster.

Examples of How We Get it Wrong

Cold Hands and Loss of Fine Motor Skills
Observation: When our hands are cold, we lose our fine
motor skills.
Teacher: So breaking toothpicks requires fine motor skills,
doesn t it? Let s do an experiment with toothpicks where we
break them with our hands at two different temperatures and
see what happens.
Now everyone write a problem statement and hypothesis.

Examples of How We Get it Wrong

Typical Problem Statement:
What is the effect of temperature on how many toothpicks
I can break in one minute?
Example hypothesis :
I can break more toothpicks with my hand when it is warm
than I can when my hand is cold.
No. This is simply a prediction, not a hypothesis in the
scientific sense.
This phrasing shifts students mindsets away from
investigating cause and toward simply confirming an
observation.

Examples of How We Get it Wrong

Example hypothesis 2:
If I break toothpicks for one minute with my warm hand
and then with my cold hand, then I will break more
toothpicks with my hand when it is warm.
No. This is a method followed by a predictionthere is still
no apparent reason for doing this experiment. What
explanation is being tested?
This may be the most common wrong way
students and their teachers write
hypotheses.

Examples of How We Get it Wrong

Example hypothesis 3:
If I break toothpicks for one minute with my warm hand
and then for one minute with my hand after soaking it
in ice water for five minutes, then I will break more
toothpicks with my hand when it is warm BECAUSE
low temperatures suppress muscle contractions and
thus fine motor skills.
Almost. But this form puts the hypothesis being tested,
that cold suppresses muscle contractions, at the end of
the statement, in the conclusion, rather than in the
beginning where the hypothesis belongs. Also, the use
of the word because suggests truth and removes the
necessarily tentative nature of the hypothesis.

Examples of How We Get it Right!

Example hypothesis 4:
If low temperatures suppress muscle contractions and
thus fine motor skills, and I break toothpicks for one
minute with my warm hand and then for one minute
with my hand after soaking it in ice water for five
minutes, then I will break more toothpicks with my
hand when it is warm.
Yes. This begins with the hypothesis that low temperatures
suppress muscle contractions, and beginning with the
word if makes the hypothesis tentative. This form
also includes how this hypothesis will be tested, and
ends with a specific, measurable, predicted outcome of
the experiment.

Examples of How We Get it Right!

If low temperatures suppress muscle contractions and

thus fine motor skills, and I break toothpicks for one
minute with my warm hand and then for one minute
with my hand after soaking it in ice water for five
minutes, then I will break more toothpicks with my
hand when it is warm.

We call this the RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS

(If hypothesis, and method, then prediction)
- Young and Strode Why Evolution Works (and Creationism Fails), June 2009

Examples of How We Get it Right!

Example hypotheses :
If low temperatures suppress muscle contractions and thus
fine motor skills, and I break toothpicks for one minute
with my warm hand and then for one minute with my
hand after soaking it in ice water for five minutes, then I
will break significantly more toothpicks with my hand
when it is warm.
Results: In a class of 30 students, students break an average of 36
toothpicks with warm hands and 22 toothpicks with cold hands.
The data can be analyzed with a paired t-Test, or more simply with
95% confidence intervals, and always (5 years so far) show a
statistically significant difference between the means.

The Research Hypothesis Formula Has Been Around

for a Long Time
Silver salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) are born in the headwaters of Pacific
Northwest streams.
Young salmon grow and mature sexually in the Pacific Ocean.
By tagging young salmon, biologists discovered that mature salmon actually return
to reproduce in precisely the same headwaters where they were born some years
earlier.
This discovery raised a very interesting causal question: how do returning salmon
find their home stream?
By borrowing explanations from other animal taxa, A. D. Hasler (1960) generated
three hypotheses for salmon navigation: (1) salmon use sight; (2) salmon smell
chemicals specific to their home stream; and (3) salmon use the Earth s
magnetic field.

Hasler, Arthur D. 1960. Guideposts of Migrating Fishes. Science 132:785-792.

The Research Hypothesis Formula Has Been Around

for a Long Time

Lawson (2004) describes Hasler s hypothetico-deductive

reasoning:

Lawson, Antone E. 2004. The Nature And Development of Scientific Reasoning: a Synthetic
View. International Journal of Science and Mathematics Education 2:307338.

Hypothesis and Prediction Confusion

Is it a National, Perhaps International Problem?

Independent Student Research Science Fair

Students initially explore topics of interest (often unsolved
issues in science).
Students then
develop research questions.
explore background information.
develop a hypothesis that uses the background
information as a guide.
Students then write research proposals, run and analyze
experiments, and report their results in the form of scientific
reports or at school, regional, and international science fairs.

The ISEF Hypothesis Study

The ISEF Study
Five years of data collection
at the International Science
and Engineering Fair
2006 (Indianapolis), 2008
(Atlanta), 2009 (Reno), 2010
(San Jose), and 2011 (LA)
A total of 1,129 student
projects randomly surveyed
over five years
Excluded any projects with
problem statements instead
of hypotheses (engineering,
math, computer science,
some physics)

The ISEF Hypothesis Study

The ISEF Study
Surveyed projects for presence or absence of what
students identified as hypothesis statements.
Assessed student understanding of the meaning of the
scientific hypothesis versus the meaning of a prediction.

The ISEF Hypothesis Study

The ISEF Hypothesis Study

The ISEF Hypothesis Study

Mean percent of projects (n = 5 years) with hypotheses written as

predictions and hypotheses written as explanations. Error bars are 95%
confidence intervals. Statistics are the results of a students t-Test.

Examples from Student Projects

1. How would YOU categorize each of these?
Prediction only -- Prediction (with methods) -- Hypothesis only -- Hypothesis
and Prediction -- Research Hypothesis (Hypothesis, Methods, Prediction)
2. Does the student understand the meaning of hypothesis, or confuse it with
prediction?

If a plant receives fertilizer, then they will grow to be bigger than a

plant that doesn t receive fertilizer.
The hypothesis of this study was that cattle presence would have
an adverse impact on the terrestrial salamander population.
It is hypothesized that in the early time intervals of data
collection, the cells fed with TGF Beta will at first be suppressed by
the hormone.

Examples from Student Projects

1. How would YOU categorize each of these?
Prediction only -- Prediction (with methods) -- Hypothesis only -- Hypothesis
and Prediction -- Research Hypothesis (Hypothesis, Methods, Prediction)
2. Does the student understand the meaning of hypothesis, or confuse it with
prediction?

Ground level ozone will be higher in areas of Fairfield, Iowa,

with more traffic.
Earthworm activity will alter the chemical trajectory of leaf litter
from background fungal dominated decay paths.
If pH is a factor in the decomposition of H2O2, then lowering
the pH will inhibit the rate.

Examples from Student Projects

1. How would YOU categorize each of these?
Prediction only -- Prediction (with methods) -- Hypothesis only -- Hypothesis
and Prediction -- Research Hypothesis (Hypothesis, Methods, Prediction)
2. Does the student understand the meaning of hypothesis, or confuse it with
prediction?

It is hypothesized that if the bridge s structural width is

changed from 40 mm to 30 mm to 20 mm, then the structural
efficiency will increase respectively.
Dye affects the efficiency of a solar cell by being able to
absorb more light into the solar cell as opposed to no dye. Thus,
the cell with no dye should not be able to conduct electricity.

Examples from Student Projects

1. How would YOU categorize each of these?
Prediction only -- Prediction (with methods) -- Hypothesis only -- Hypothesis
and Prediction -- Research Hypothesis (Hypothesis, Methods, Prediction)
2. Does the student understand the meaning of hypothesis, or confuse it with
prediction?

Because a prescribed burn is lower in intensity than a wildfire,

prescribed burns can significantly reduce mercury emissions
from a subsequent fire.
It is hypothesized that the structural and functional integrity of
the system as a whole is dependent on nerve activity.

Examples from Student Projects

1. How would YOU categorize each of these?
Prediction only -- Prediction (with methods) -- Hypothesis only -- Hypothesis
and Prediction -- Research Hypothesis (Hypothesis, Methods, Prediction)
2. Does the student understand the meaning of hypothesis, or confuse it with
prediction?

If parthenolide is a substrate specific inhibitor in signal

transduction, and I examine the effects of parthenolide on the
secretion of 5-HT through two independent pathways using a
platelet-based model, then parthenolide should inhibit the
secretion of 5-HT only through the PKC pathway.

Examples from Student Projects

Research Hypothesis
If parthenolide is a substrate specific inhibitor in signal
transduction, and I examine the effects of parthenolide
on the secretion of 5-HT through two independent
pathways using a platelet-based model, then
parthenolide should inhibit the secretion of 5-HT only
through the PKC pathway.

Examples from Student Projects

Hypothesis
If parthenolide is a substrate specific inhibitor in signal
transduction, and I examine the effects of parthenolide
on the secretion of 5-HT through two independent
pathways using a platelet-based model, then
parthenolide should inhibit the secretion of 5-HT only
through the PKC pathway.

Examples from Student Projects

Methods
If parthenolide inhibits 5-HT secretion from dense
platelet granules through the inactivation of the PKC
pathway, and I examine the effects of parthenolide on
the secretion of 5-HT through two independent
pathways using a platelet-based model, then
parthenolide should inhibit the secretion of 5-HT only
through the PKC pathway.

Examples from Student Projects

Prediction
If parthenolide inhibits 5-HT secretion from dense
platelet granules through the inactivation of the PKC
pathway, and I examine the effects of parthenolide on
the secretion of 5-HT through two independent
pathways using a platelet-based model, then
parthenolide should inhibit the secretion of 5-HT only
through the PKC pathway.

Examples from Student Projects

Research Hypothesis
If parthenolide is a substrate specific inhibitor in signal
transduction, and I examine the effects of parthenolide
on the secretion of 5-HT through two independent
pathways using a platelet-based model, then
parthenolide should inhibit the secretion of 5-HT only
through the PKC pathway.

What is the source of this problem?

Misuse of the Term Hypothesis in Textbooks

Analyzed all 66 science

textbook used in Boulder
Valley School District
middle and high schools.
Books were grouped by
middle level (gray), high
school (pink), and college
(blue).
If at least one of the three
categories (hypothesis
definition, hypothesis
example, lab prompt for
students to write a
hypothesis) was or
prompted a prediction,
the book failed in its
teaching of correct
hypothesis writing.

Level
Course
Title
Authors
Publisher Year
Place
Hypothesis Example
DefinitionHypothesis
Example Hypothesis
PredictionPrompt
Definition
Def H,from
P, oraEG
Example
Lab Exercise
H or
Prompt
P
H or P
Middle SchoolEarth Science
Earth Science
F eather, R. Jr.,
Glencoe/McGraw-Hill
and S. L. Snyder 1999 Columbus, Ohio
A prediction about
You might
a problem
hypothesize
State
that
a hypothesis
can
that
None
beatested
wall
about
built
(p.Pwhich
at
16).
theproperty
basePof you
the slope
think Pwill be
actmost
as a Fail
useful
barrierintoiden
th
Middle SchoolEarth Science
Earth Science
F eather, R. Jr.,
Glencoe/McGraw-Hill
S. L. Snyder, and2D.
008Zike
Columbus, Ohio
An educated You
guess
might
(p. 7).
hypothesize
State a hypothesis
that
None
brand
about
X will
EG
what
clean
would
dishes
happen
P betterifthan
thePmagma
any other
inside
brand
Fail
the(p.
magma
9).
Middle SchoolEarth Science
Earth Science
T odd, R. W. Holt, Rinehart, and Winston
2001 Austin, TexasSometimes called
The bones
an educated
come
Nonefrom
guess,
a brand
the
Nonehypothesis
new dinosaur
EGrepresents
(p. 14).Hthe scientist's
N best answer to the que
Middle SchoolEarth Science
Earth Science
Padilla, M. J. Pearson Education 2001 Upper SaddleARiver,
possible
Newexplanation
Jersey
If I add salt
forto
How
observations
water,
do you
then
think
None
that
theheating
relate
water to
will
Hwater
atake
scientific
will
longer
affect
P question
tohow
freeze
fast
(p.(p.
P 6).
it 758).
evaporates?
Fail Record yo
Middle SchoolEarth Science
Earth Science
Padilla, M. J. Pearson Education 2009 Upper SaddleARiver,
possible
Newexplanation
Jersey
If I add salt
forto
Which
a set
fresh
of
dowater,
observations
youMaking
think
thenwill
athe
forecast
orheat
water
answer
H upwill
of
faster--sand
to
what
freeze
a scientific
P willathappen
aorlower
question
water?
Pintemperature
the
Record
(p.
futurebased
8). your
Fail
(p.hypothes
788).
on pas
Middle SchoolEarth Science
Earth Science
T arbuck, E. J.,
Pearson
and F.Prentice
K. Lutgens
Hall2009 Boston, Massechusetts
A possible explanation
Hypothesizing:
(p. None
23).
Predict what
None
the effectHwill be on some
P
of Earth'sN systems if aFail
forest is cu
Middle SchoolLife Science Life Science Todd, R. W. Holt, Rinehart, and Winston
2001 Austin, TexasA possible explanation
The deformities
or answer
None
weretocaused
a question
A statement
by one
(p.or
12)
H
ofmore
cause
chemical
andHeffect
pollutants
that N
can
in the
be water
used to
(p.set
12).
up a t
Middle SchoolLife Science Life Science Padilla, M. J. Pearson Education 2009 Upper SaddleARiver,
possible
Newexplanation
Jersey
If I add salt
to to
a
Write
set
fresh
of
a hypothesis
water,
observations
A forecast
thenfor
the
or
an
of
answer
water
H
experiment
whatwill
will
to freeze
ahappen
scientific
you
P at
could
in
a the
lower
question
perform
future
Htemperature
(p.
to
based
answer
15). on
Fail
(p.
your
past
810).
ques
expe
Middle SchoolLife Science Life Science Padilla, M. J. Pearson Education 2001 Upper SaddleARiver,
possible
Newexplanation
Jersey
If fertilizeroris answer
None
added to
to the
a question
None
soil, then
(p.the
6)
H plant will grow
P
taller (p.N6).
Fail
Middle SchoolLife Science Life Science Daniel, L.
Glencoe/McGraw-Hill1999 Columbus, Ohio
A prediction that
The doctor
can be hypothesizes
tested
State a(p.
hypothesis
16).
that
Noneyou
about
have
Pwhat
strepa throat
bar graph
H (p. 15).
of the hand
P
spans ofFail
students in
Middle SchoolPhysical Science
Physical Science
Frank, D. V., Pearson
et al. Education 2009 Upper SaddleARiver,
possible
Newanswer
Jersey
Changing
to a the
scientific
Write
distance
a question
hypothesis
between
Making
or explanation
describing
an
a forecast
object
H and
how
for
of what
aathe
light
set
Hmass
will
of
source
observations
happen
of washers
changes
Pin theattached
(p.
the
futurebased
11).
size
Fail
of
to the
a on
pendu
obje
pas
Middle SchoolPhysical Science
CPO Science:Hsu,
Physical
T. C.,Science
etCPO
al. Science
2007 Nashua, NewAHampshire
possible explanation
Suppose heat
that
Inis
can
Investigations
really
be tested
a form
Noneby
of
Lab
energy.
comparison
Manual:
H Then
Write
with
it would
your
scientific
P hypothesis,
not have
evidence
Pany
stating
(p.
mass
31).
which
(p.Fail
31)
ramp will
Middle SchoolPhysical Science
Energy, Machines,
Toler, and
D. J.Motion
Carolina Biological Supply
2006 Burlington,
Company for
North
None
The Carolina
NationalNone
Science Resource
None Center,
None
The National
N Academies N
N
Middle SchoolPhysical Science
SEPUP IssuesNagle,
and Physical
B.
Lab-Aids,
Science:Inc.
Teacher's2007
Guide
Ronkonkoma,ANew
tentative
York theory
None used to
None
explain a set
None
of facts (p.
H TR-255) N
N
Middle SchoolPhysical Science
Physical Science
Todd, R. W. Holt, Rinehart, and Winston
2001 Austin, TexasA possible explanation
A propulsion
or an
system
Form
answer
a hypothesis
that
tomimics
Scientists
a question
about
the usually
way
(p.
which
H 14)
a penguin
state
factors
predictions
Pswims
(such will
as in
length
be
an
Hmore
"If
of efficient
string,
then"
Fail
mass,
format.
than etc.)
prop
Th
Middle SchoolPhysical Science
Physical Science
Padilla, M. J. Prentice-Hall, Inc. 2001 Upper SaddleARiver,
possible
Newexplanation
Jersey
The distance
for Write
observations
between
a hypothesis
an You
object
thatmight
relate
describing
andmake
ato
Hlight
aahow
scientific
prediction
source
the Hmass
affects
question
about
of the
the
the
(p.size
P
bob
outcome.
6). of
willthe
affect
object's
Perhaps
Fail
the speed
shado
you w
Middle SchoolPhysical Science
Physical Science
McLaughlin, C.
Glencoe/McGraw-Hill
W., and M. Thompson
1999 Columbus, Ohio
A testable prediction
The farther
(p. something
16).
Hypothesize
falls,
what
None
thewill
greater
happen
P thetospeed
the pendulum's
itH attains (p.
motion
P16). and finalFail
height if its
High School Advanced
Biology
Biology: Concepts
Campbell,
and Connections
N.,Peason
et al. Benjamin Cummings
2009 San Francisco,
A proposed
California explanation
The batteries
for
None
in
a set
the of
flashlight
observations
Noneare dead
(p.H(p.
9). 10).
H
N
High School Advanced
Physics
Physics
Cutnell, J. D.,John
and Wiley
K. W. and
Johnson
Sons,
2009
Inc.Hoboken, New
None
Jersey
None
None
None
N
N
N
High School Advanced
Physics
Physics
Giancoli, D. C.
Pearson Education 2009 Upper SaddleNone
River, New Jersey
None
None
None
N
N
N
High School Astronomy Astronomy Today
Chaisson, E. Pearson
and S. McMillan
Addison-Wesley
2008 San Francisco,
One
California
possible Earth,
explanation
the cause
of
None
the
ofobserved
the shadow,
None
factsmust
(p. H
8).
be round (p. H7).
N
High School Astronomy Explorations:Arny,
An Introduction
T. T., and
McGraw-Hill
S.
to E.
Astronomy
Schneider 2008 New York, New
An York
idea aboutThe
some
Earth
property
is spherical
Noneof the(p.
Universe
None
40)
(p. 12).
H
H
N
High School Biology
Biology: Cycles
Parke,
of Life
H. M. AGS
and P.
Publishing
Enderle
2006 Circle Pines, Minnesota
An educated None
guess (p. 19).
Write a hypothesis
None and procedure
EG
describing
N
how you
N can determine the effe
High School Biology
Biology: Cycles
DeSalle,
of LifeR. and
Holt,
M. Rinehart,
R. Heithaus
and Winston
2008 Austin, TexasA possible explanation
The geesethat
were
Form
can
being
abe
testable
tested
killed
None
by
hypothesis
bypredators
observation
H that
(p. or
10).
explains
experimentation
H how a protein
N
(p. 10).
mixture might be affe
High School Biology
Biology: Exploring
Campbell,
Life N.,Peason
et al. Education 2004 Upper SaddleARiver,
suggested
New Jersey
The
answer
batteries
to a None
well-defined
in the flashlight
None
question--an
are deadHexplanation
(p. 31).
H
on trial (p. 31).
N
High School Biology
Modern Biology
Postlethwait,Holt,
J. H.,Rinehart,
and J. L.and
Hopson
Winston
2009 Austin, TexasA proposed explanation
Owls hunt by
for
None
keen
the way
vision
a particular
in
A statement
the darkaspect
(p.
H
that
14).
of
forecasts
the natural
H what
world
would
functions
N happen (p.
in a13).
test situatio
High School Biology
Biology
Miller, K. R., and
Peason
J. Levine
Education 2010 Upper SaddleARiver,
scientific
New explanation
Jersey
Marsh grassfor
growth
Form
a set
a of
is
hypothesis:
limited
observations
Noneby given
available
that
H
thecan
nitrogen
objective
be tested
(p.
Hof6).
this
in ways
lab and
Pthatthe
support
materials
Fail
or reject
you have
it (
High School Chemistry
Chemistry: Matter
Buthelezi,
and Change
T.,Glencoe/McGraw-Hill
et al.
2008 Columbus, Ohio
A testable explanation
The calculations
forWrite
what
they
ahas
hypothesis
made
been
None
led
observed
them
that uses
to
H
(p.
hypothesize
what
13). youP know
that chlorine
about Preaction
produced
rates
by
Failthis
to explain
intera
High School Chemistry
Chemistry
Wilbraham, A.Pearson
C., et al.
Prentice Hall2008 Upper SaddleARiver,
proposed
New explanation
Jersey
The batteries
for
None
are
an observation
dead (p.None
22).
(p. 22). H
H
N
High School Chemistry
Chemistry
Bell, J., et al.W. H. Freeman and Company
2005 New York, New
None
York
None
None
None
N
N
N
High School Environmental
Environment:
Science
Withgott,
The Science
J., Peason
and
Behind
S. Brennan
Benjamin
the Stories
Cummings
2008 San Francisco,
A statement
California Agricultural
that attempts
fertilizer
to explain
running
aSpecific
phenomenon
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2004 Circle Pines, Minnesota
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2009 Columbus, Ohio
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Essentials of Cutnell,
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K. W. and
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The Physics of
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Biology: The Starr,
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2009
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2008 San Francisco,
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of Physics
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John Wiley and Sons,
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2008 New York, New
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M. W.
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2004 San Francisco,
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N
relationship

Middle School Textbooks:

13 of 17 (76%) Failed

High School Textbooks:

6 of 35 (17%) Failed

College Textbooks:

1 of 14 (7%) Failed

How big is this problem?

Use and Misuse of the Term Hypothesis in Scientific Papers

How big is this problem?

Use and Misuse of the Term Hypothesis in Scientific Papers

Hypothesis

Prediction

How big is this problem?

Use and Misuse of the Term Hypothesis in Scientific Papers

How big is this problem?

Use and Misuse of the Term Hypothesis in Scientific Papers

If testosterone organizes human aggressive behavior, and we

examine the relationship between 2D:4D and scores on the
four subscales of the aggression questionnaire, then digit ratio
will correlate with the most sexually dimorphic forms of trait
aggression.

How big is this problem?

Use and Misuse of the Term Hypothesis in Scientific Papers

How big is this problem?

Use and Misuse of the Term Hypothesis in Scientific Papers

Practicing Hypothesis Writing

If we could only get our students to write good research questions

1. Are brightly colored leaves in the fall a warning to potential

herbivores?
2. Are brightly colored leaves in the fall evidence of
sunscreen against damaging radiation?
3. Why do some bird species arrive at their breeding grounds
at the same time every spring, regardless of spring
conditions?
4. Does temperature affect the rate of cellular respiration?
(think of yeast)
5. Can plasmids transform phenotype in E. coli?

Take Home Messages

1. As science teachers, we are in the business of teaching

the process of science, which begins with correct
hypothesis writing and testing.
2. Hypothesis writing can be challenging, but is an essential
tool for keeping students (and scientists!) focused on
exactly what they are doing and why they are doing it.
3. Misuse of hypothesis is a problem throughout the
profession.
4. Help students start their scientific thinking with good
research questions.

Acknowledgments:
Haydee Ayi-Bonte
Kristin Donley
Helen Petach
Boulder Valley School District
Paul K. Strode
paul.strode@bvsd.org
http://www.fairviewhs.org/staff/paul-strode