Cement Industry Pitch Book GCC May09
Cement Industry Pitch Book GCC May09
Cement Industry Pitch Book GCC May09
M&A Ideas
Confidential
May 2009
This presentation is confidential and may not be reproduced (in whole or in part) nor summarised or distributed without the prior written permission
of ABC. The recipient(s) of this report agree(s) to keep its contents strictly confidential and undertake(s) not to disclose the information contained
herein to any person other than those of its/their employees who strictly need access to it for the purpose of the transaction. All copy rights and
trademarks belong to ABC and its affiliates 2009
Executive Summary
Global Scenario
Current economic slowdown is expected to result in decline in the growth of demand for cement in the near term;
however, emerging markets are expected to drive bulk of future growth
The potential of growth of emerging markets has led leading global cement players to expand their footprints in these
markets
GCC
Effect of global slowdown is expected to have limited effect on the GCC except for UAE. For UAE, construction sector
and related demand of cement is expected to decline significantly due to strained real estate and construction sector
Currently, the cement companies in the GCC regions are available at a very low valuations on both absolute as well as
relative basis
In the current market scenario companies can look for consolidating their position in the local market or expand and
increase their market share in other markets by considering M&A option
Why Now
Cement industry in the GCC region is highly fragmented with more than 70% of players having capacities less than 2
million tons per annum. M&A can provide economies of scale and increase their operational efficiency
Some of the GCC countries like Bahrain and Kuwait rely on imports of cement which is not sustainable. Proximity to raw
materials and consumer markets provides added cost advantage to bulky product like cement as compared to imported
cement
Year 2008 witnessed fall in the earnings of many cement companies. There are possibilities of highly leveraged
companies looking for an exit
Under current market situation, valuations of the companies are very low and they are available at very attractive prices
Long construction time for a cement factory, typically 24-30 months, acts as a barrier for companies to grow. Hence
looking for possible M&A provides added advantage
International players are moving to emerging markets like India/China for acquiring cement companies to tap the
growing cement demand from the emerging markets
Agenda
Global demand for cement is expected to decline for the next 1-2
years
Global Supply for the Cement
Millions of tons
Millions of tons
-0.7%
0%
4.9%
5.5%
2,870
2,870
2008
2010E*
2,608
2006
2,857
2,815
2008
2010E
2,568
2006
In the past, increased construction and infrastructure developments due to favorable economic
environment were the main growth drivers for cement
Healthy economic growth and ongoing industrialization efforts in most of the developing countries, is
expected to drive the construction expenditures in the coming 1-2 years
*On account of decline in global demand for cement in between 2008-2010, global cement supply is expected to remain stagnant
3
Source: Equity research report, i3c analysis
However, Asia and MENA account for 66% of the demand and is
expected to be least affected with the current slow down
Global Supply of Cement, 2008E*
Others
10%
MENA
7%
America
10%
10%
MENA
9%
58%
Asia
America
10%
57%
Asia
16%
14%
Europe
Europe
*2008 estimated regional distribution has been assumed to be similar as distribution for 2006
Source: Equity research reports, CemNet
2008 figures
China
Rest of the World
20%
13.0%
15%
1,279
9.0%
Brazil
10%
5%
5.3%
0%
China
India
1,443
1,390
1,467
1,059
Russia
-10.0%
-10%
-20%
1,200
1,320
1.0%
-5%
-15%
1,368
-15.0%
Japan
USA
2005
Region
China
Rest of World
Global
-25%
2006
2007
2008
Chinese consumption of cement had a growth of 9.5% between 2005-2008, which is more than
double than the growth experienced by the rest of the world (4.7%) in the same period
Globally fastest cement consumption growth was in Asia, especially in China and India, followed
by Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa
Source: Equity research report, International Cement Review
Millions of tons
205
Cement sales
Cement capacity
194
155
143
103
89
87
96
77
63
43
Buzzi Unicern
Italcementi
Cemex
Heidelberg
Cement
Holcim
Lafarge
32
Agenda
Millions of tons
Millions of tons
9.4%
2.3%
89.7
25.8%
10.6%
75.0
71.4
74.7
58.4
47.4
2006
2008E
2010E
2006
2008E
2010E
In light of large construction activities, GCC countries have undergone significant expansion/upgrades in the cement
production leading to excess supply over demand
In 2008, estimated cement production capacity is 85MTa and expected to grow to 112MTa by 2011
The surplus situation is only temporarily. This is likely to get balanced with the internal growth of housing, economic cities
and export to countries like Iran, and Iraq
*Demand figures for 2010 has been estimated keeping contribution by construction sector to real GDP same as for 2008,
supply figures has been estimated by comparing it with recent planned production capacity
Source: Equity research reports, i3c analysis
Bahrain
1.5%
Kuwait
Oman
2.7%
Qatar
Bahrain
2.1%
Qatar
Oman
Saudi
Arabia
6.0%
Kuwait
7.6%
4.9%
5.6%
Saudi
Arabia
6.6%
51.8%
53.3%
28.9%
UAE
29.0%
UAE
Despite global slowdown, GCC cement industry is expected to continue on the growth path
Saudi Arabia and Qatars real estate and construction projects have not been affected by global slowdown so far
and majority of the projects are on schedule
As per MEED, over US$2.2 trillion worth of active projects have been announced by GCC countries. This will drive
the demand and sales growth of cement companies in the GCC
As of May 2009, out of all the investment projects that are cancelled or on hold in GCC and worth ~US$ 0.46 trillion;
78% belongs to the UAE
Source: Equity research reports, i3c analysis
Millions
Oman Bahrain
(2.1%) (1.8%)
2.4%
39.2
41.2
40.1
42.1
Qatar
UAE
6.5%
8.3%
11.1%
70.3%
2007
2008
2009E
2010E
6.9%
1,076
983
856
804
Saudi
Arabia
Bahrain
Oman (1.9%)
4.9%
Qatar
9.5%
44.8%
Kuwait 14.7%
Saudi
Arabia
24.2%
2007
2008
2009E
2010E
UAE
10
Percentage
Percentage
GCC
6.9
5.6
Kuwait
2.5%
Saudi Arabia
2.5%
World
5.2
4.0
3.2
UAE
1.5
3.6%
4.8%
Oman
1.9
5.1%
Bahrain
2007
2008
2009E
-1.3
2010E
4.5
US$ (000)
4.3
150
93
100
3
2.1
55
1.8
1.3
46
50
27
1.2
19
19
Saudi
Arabia
Oman
29.4%
KG (000)
200
16.5%
Qatar
24.3%
19.6%
10.3%
1
0
UAE
Qatar
Bahrain
Kuwait
2006
2007
2008E
2009E
11
US$ billion
2.3%
38.9%
1,675.0
1,689.8
1,753.9
2008
2009E
2010E
14.7%
2006
16.8%
16.8%
2008
2010E
1,040.6
623.4
2006
2007
1.8
1.8
2008
2010E
1.6
3%
Power
3.3%
6%
7%
Oil and
Gas
15%
67%
Construction
2006
*Figures for 2010 has been estimated keeping contribution by construction sector to real GDP same as for 2008
Source: MEED, Equity research reports, IMF, i3c analysis
12
13
Agenda
14
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
-60%
S&P
DJIA
Nikkie 225
CAC 40 (FCHI)
FTSE 100
Tadawul
15
EV / Sales
2007
2008
1.4
1.7
2008
2007
2008
4.7
9.3
17.4
7.5
18.6
4.9
1.4
1.6
0.5
2.5
16.5
8.6
14.5
2.2
3.3
16.6
7.9
1.2
3.6
8.5
27.9
9.6
2.0
5.4
10.6
Asia (emerging)
7.5
Market to Book
18.9
GCC
9.7
9.6
PE Multiple
Qatar National
9.0
17.8
1.1
2007
18.2
17.6
1.6
Rak Cement
Source: Bloomberg
24.5
2.8
3.2
Yamamah Cement
4.6
3.1
Saudi Cement
Europe
7.5
16.0
6.5
GCC
Gulf Cement
17.6
7.6
5.5
Qatar National
Cement
Companies
11.5
0.7
4.5
Asia (emerging)
20.0
4.0
2.2
Gulf Cement
2008
5.5
10.8
Yamamah Cement
Europe
2007
9.8
Saudi Cement
Rak Cement
EV / EBIT
1.7
4.3
1.9
2.0
0.9
16
Emerging Markets
World
MENA
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
-4%
Source: IMF
Recovery
within an
year
Recovery
within three
years
Recovery
within an
year
Recovery
within an
year
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
-2%
1980
0%
Expected to
start recovery
within 2 years
17
Cement companies
1200
1000
USA
800
600
China
India
400
Qatar
UAE
200
Kuwait
0
-15%
Source: Bloomberg
-5%
5%
15%
25%
Oman
35%
Saudi Arabia
in GCC are
relatively of smaller
sizes as compared
to global players
and have one of
the highest
margins
Companies in
these countries are
good potential
targets by large
players in order to
increase their
footprints
45%
55%
Operating margins
18
The are four broad themes which can significantly add value to
acquirer and long term value creation for the shareholders
Entrance of
Multinational
Local
consolidation
Long term value
creation for the
shareholders
Operational
Efficiency
Expand into
new markets
19
350
300
250
200
Eastern province
Cement Co.
Arabian
Cement Co.
150
Companies like
Qatar National
Cement Co. and
Yanbu Cement Co.
are available are
very attractive
prices
100
50
0
Source: Bloomberg
20
Filtering criteria
Size of the company
Line of business
Ownership structure
Market presence
Companys stability
Recent developments
with the company
Basic financial
information
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
21
Agenda
22
Operational Metrics
2007
1,185,502
768,781
744,379
731,430
2,365,382
3,604,324
2008
1,122,933
665,833
630,161
610,885
2,841,394
3,589,125
2009(Q1)
258,670
142,135
133,304
125,987
2,705,456
3,371,037
Ownership structure
Key People
Chairman: HH Prince
Faysal Bin Mohammed Bin
Saud Al Kabir
Private
(9.7%)
Major
News
Major
news
2007
64.85%
69.68%
61.70%
24.57%
-
2008
-5.28%
59.29%
72.04%
54.40%
19.80%
48.83%
2009(Q1)
54.95%
68.96%
48.71%
18.28%
51.54%
Government
(12.1%)
23
2007
721,572
467,849
435,942
392,165
1,840,544
2,365,727
2008
917,259
389,701
332,543
321,477
2,235,662
3,647,325
2009(Q1)
203,855
115,314
103,378
103,780
2,210,707
3,601,149
Major News
Ownership structure
Key People
Chairman: Abdullah Mohammed
Al Issa
Private
(24.6%)
Operational Metrics
To have a competitive edge over its peers, ACC took growth initiatives
through local and regional expansion plans including a 2.5 mtpa plant
in Al-Qatarana, Jordon
ACC has focus on increasing the efficiency & controlling its costs. The
company has plans to use heavy fuel instead of crude oil in its sixth
production facility, to substantially reduce its costs.
ACC enjoys favorable positioning. The companys plants, located in
Rabigh are in close proximity to Jeddah, Mekkah & Al Madinah, which
are witnessing expansion across real estate, tourism & infrastructure
sectors.
Raw materials such as limestone deposits are located in close vicinity
which not only guarantees availability of raw material in plenty but also
mitigates risks associated with transportation costs.
2007
64.83%
60.41%
54.35%
15.33%
-
2008
27.12%
42.48%
36.25%
35.05%
47.39%
43.19%
2009(Q1)
56.57%
50.71%
50.91%
52.38%
63.62%
Public
(59%)
24
Operational Metrics
2007
923,948
635,147
599,575
541,419
2,113,695
2,495,831
2008
798,825
549,019
513,003
434,237
1,875,319
2,200,554
2009(Q1)
193,253
106,814
97,642
96,958
1,724,196
2,290,324
Major News
Major news
Since April 11, 2009 EPCC has suspended production on one of its lines
as inventory rises amid a ban on cement exports. The kingdoms export
ban drove net profit down 37.5% to 96.96 million SAR in the first quarter
of 2009, compared to the same quarter a year earlier.
Ownership structure
Key People
Government
(30%)
Chairman: HH Prince
Turki Bin Mohammed Bin
Fahad Bin Abdulaziz Al
Saud
2007
68.74%
64.89%
58.60%
8.77%
147.52%
2008
-13.54%
68.73%
64.21%
54.36%
8.29%
119.82%
2009(Q1)
55.27%
50.53%
50.17%
7.85%
213.66%
25
Operational Metrics
No.
No. of
of Employees:
Employees: 1600
1600
Production
Production Capacity:
Capacity: 5.02
5.02 million
million tons
tons of
of cement
cement per
per year
year &
& 5.57
5.57
million
tons
of
clinker
per
year.
million tons of clinker per year.
2007
1,154,925
794,687
768,857
703,885
2,344,465
2,648,252
2008
1,297,901
893,912
863,844
791,070
2,359,628
2,7487,30
2009(Q1)
362,115
213,846
204,332
200,170
2,279,798
2,612,179
Major
News
Major
news
SPCC paid 2 Saudi Riyals a share dividend for the second half of
2008, starting from March 14.
In December, 2008 SPCC was fined $53000 by Saudi Arabias
Capital Market Authority for disclosing its first half & nine month
financial results to the media before submitting these results to the
CMA.
Ownership structure
Key People
Chairman: HH Prince Khaled Bin
Turki Al Turki
Government
(54%)
2007
68.81%
66.57%
60.95%
-
2008
12.38%
68.87%
66.56%
60.95%
-
2009(Q1)
59.05%
56.42%
55.28%
-
Public
(46%)
26
Operational Metrics
Major News
2007
1,361,950
857,511
793,360
686,397
2,738,582
3,860,734
2008
1,259,612
704,613
605,681
621,322
2,847,704
4,539,671
2009(Q1)
350,667
182,930
160,219
152,001
2,640,505
5,050,246
Ownership structure
Key People
Private
(8%)
2007
62.96%
58.25%
50.40%
25.36%
-
2008
-7.51%
55.94%
48.08%
49.33%
42.42%
134.72%
2009(Q1)
52.17%
45.69%
43.35%
60.40%
25.89%
Government
(13%)
27
Operational Metrics
2007
1,170,728
680,338
657,319
660,953
2,323,518
2,563,399
2008
1,093,514
584,977
560,854
559,736
2,356,055
2,599,812
2009(Q1)
277,402
159,884
154,226
151,783
2,085,637
2,310,351
Major News
In March,
March, 2009
2009 YCCs
YCCs shareholders
shareholders approved
approved a
a4
4 SAR
SAR a
a share
share
In
dividend
payout
for
2008.
dividend payout for 2008.
Ownership structure
YCC has one of the largest kiln in the world which uses the latest
technology in digital process control, efficient power & fuel consumption
and minimum use of man power in all stages of production
Company has plans to expand organically. Contract with Sinoma
International Engineering Co. to set up a new plant with a designed
capacity of 3 million tonnes entails the companys growth initiatives
Impetus on cost efficiency through the setting up of an electric power
station at a total cost of SAR 300 million to meet the power requirements
of the new expansion plan
YCC enjoys high demand levels to its presence in the western region of
Saudi Arabia including Jeddah, Mekkah and Al Madinah which are
witnessing expansion across real estate, tourism & infrastructure sectors.
Proximity to the Red Sea Coast, which has been identified by the
Supreme Council of Tourism to be developed as a tourist destination is
likely to append cement demand.
Easy access to raw materials such as limestone & gypsum, as these are
located in the close vicinity to YCCs plants. Additionally, reserve life of
these raw materials span over 50 years.
2007
58.11%
56.14%
56.46%
0.80%
622.71
2008
-6.60%
53.50%
51.29%
51.19%
0.58%
770.30
2009(Q1)
57.64%
55.60%
54.72%
0.54%
2201
Key People
Chairman: HH Sheikh
Mishaal Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud
Private
(29%)
Public
(49%)
Government
(22%)
28
Operational Metrics
2007
334,974
83,144
7,1603
54,935
723,364
775,379
2008
425,959
110,936
99,009
80,040
803,030
903,919
2009(Q1)
Ownership structure
Key People
Chairman: Dr
Abdulrahman Sultan Al Sharhan
Year
Revenue Growth (YoY)
Gross Profit Margin
EBITDA Margin
Net Profit Margin
Debt/Equity
Interest Coverage Ratio
2007
24.82%
21.38%
16.40%
143.46%
2008
27.16%
26.04%
23.24%
18.79%
3.31%
512.94%
2009(Q1)
Public
(55%)
29
2007
822,765
283,084
274,516
413,823
1,721,142
2,013,445
2008
1,078,140
386,208
373,602
2,119
1,564,062
1,810,626
2009(Q1)
213,829
67,638
64,728
-11,736
1,552,326
1,747,929
Major News
Major news
Ownership structure
Key People
Private
(10%)
Government
(12%)
Operational Metrics
Besides covering the UAE market, GCEM sells its products to more
than 11 countries
Plant is located at Saqr Port, very close to the Gulf, facilitating the
exports to Oman, Qatar, Iran, Saudi, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Iraq
Plants proximity to the raw material source - limestone quarry ensures a steady supply of raw material and reduces costs
Installation of the unique pneumatic loading system for direct loading
and unloading of cement from ships facilitates direct importing and
exporting
The companys plant is based on multi-fuel system (heavy fuel oil, coal
or gas), thereby utilizing the resources efficiently
2007
34.41%
33.65%
50.30%
10.19%
26.79%
2008
31.04%
35.82%
34.65%
.20%
7.99%
36.78%
2009(Q1)
31.63%
30.27%
-5.49%
7.25%
34.08%
General Manager:
Ahmad Abdullah Al Amash
Public
(78%)
30
Operational Metrics
2007
82,432
28,429
25,794
54,803
302,711
365,125
2008
86,399
22,827
20,210
4,312
133,339
239,384
2009(Q1)
In Nov, 2008 KCC started expansion of its cement plant in Shuaiba for
addition of a 5,500 t/d production line to the existing cement plant to be
completed by August 2010
In Jan, 2009 the company signed a deal worth US$53.5 million with
Pakistan based Descon Engineering to expand cement production facility
in Kuwait
Ownership structure
Private
(29%)
Major
News
Major
news
2007
34.49%
31.29%
66.48%
17.16%
3.94%
2008
4.81%
26.42%
23.39%
4.99%
72.86%
5.25%
2009(Q1)
Key People
Public
(43%)
Government
(28%)
31
Located in Umm Bab, Qatar National Cement Co. (QNCC), the first
cement manufacturer in Qatar, was established in 1965 as a public
shareholding company.
The company enjoyed a monopoly status in the country for over 40
years, until Gulf Cement (now Gulf Holding Co.) entered the market in
March 2006.
Its key offerings comprise ordinary portland cement, sulphate-resistant
cement, washed sand, hydrated lime, and calcined lime.
Operational Metrics
2007
1,105,493
371,590
339,221
355,160
1,642,083
2,115,993
2008
1,412,993
287,019
247,167
413,645
1,642,527
2,853,137
2009(Q1)
447,427
86,109
72,876
136,503
1,572,468
2,926,938
Major
News
Major
news
In 2008, QNCC has completed many of its expansion projects
Construction of 4th cement mill with a capacity of 5,500 tons per day
Construction of 2nd sand washing plant with a daily capacity of 20,000
tons
Cement sales exceeded its actual production in 2008, indicating import
of cement to meet growing local demand
Ownership structure
2007
33.61%
30.69%
32.13%
21.29%
10.20%
2008
27.82%
20.31%
17.49%
29.27%
53.23%
10.32%
2009(Q1)
19.25%
16.29%
30.51%
32.96%
56.91s%
Private
(1%)
Key People
Government
(43%)
Public
(56%)
General Manager:
Mohammed Ali Al Sulaiti
32