Ch5 Answer Key
Ch5 Answer Key
Ch5 Answer Key
1.
A recent study reported that the prevalence of hyperlipidemia (defined as total cholesterol
over 200) is 30% in children 2-6 years of age. If 12 children are analyzed,
a. What is the probability that at least 3 are hyperlipidemic?
P(X > 3) = 1 P(X < 3) = 1 {P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2)}
12!
0.3 0 (1 0.3)120
P(X = 0) = 0!(12 0)!
0.0138
12!
0.31 (1 0.3)121
P(X = 1) = 1!(12 1)!
0.0712
12!
0.3 2 (1 0.3)122
2
!
(
12
2
)!
P(X = 2) =
0.1678
= 1- {0.0138 + 0.0712 + 0.1678) =1- 0.2528 = 0.7472.
b. What is the probability that 3 are hyperlipidemic?
12!
0.33 (1 0.3)123
P(X=3) = 3!(12 3)!
0.2397.
c. How many would be expected to meet the criteria for hyperlipidemia?
=np=12(0.3) = 3.6
2.
Both Parents
Hyperlipidemic
13
45
One Parent
Hyperlipidemic
34
42
Neither Parent
Hyperlipidemic
83
6
Total cholesterol in children aged 10-15 is assumed to follow a normal distribution with a
mean of 191 and a standard deviation of 22.4.
a. What proportion of children 10-15 years of age have total cholesterol between 180 and
190?
180 191
190 191
P(180 < X < 190) = P( 22.4 < Z < 22.4 ) = P(-0.49 < Z < -0.04)
= 0.4840 0.3121 = 0.1719.
b. What proportion of children 10-15 years of age would be classified as hyperlipidemic
(Assume that hyperlipidemia is defined as a total cholesterol level over 200)?
200 191
P(X > 200) = P(Z > 22.4 ) = P(Z > 0.40) = 1-0.6554 = 0.3446.
c. If a sample of 20 children are selected, what is the probability that the mean cholesterol
level in the sample will exceed 200?
200 191
P( X > 200) = P(Z > 22.4 / 20 ) = P(Z > 1.80) = 1-0.9641 = 0.0359.
4.
80
121
430
Among coffee drinkers, men drink a mean of 3.2 cups per day with a standard deviation of
0.8 cups. Assume the number of drinking per day follows a normal distribution.
a. What proportion drink 2 cups per day or more?
2 3 .2
P(X > 2) = P(Z > 0.8 ) = P(Z > -1.5) = 1-0.0668 = 0.9332.
b. What proportion drink no more than 4 cups per day?
4 3 .2
P(X < 4) = P(Z < 0.8 ) = P(Z < 1) = 0.8413.
c. If the top 5% of coffee drinkers are considered heavy coffee drinkers, what is the
minimum number of cups consumed by a heavy coffee drinker?
X = + Z = 3.2 + 1.645(0.8) = 4.5 drinks.
d. If a sample of 20 men is selected, what is the probability that the mean number of cups
per day is greater than 3?
3 3 .2
P( X > 3) = P(Z > 0.8 / 20 ) = P(Z > -1.12) = 1-0.1314 = 0.8686.
6.
As part of the study described in Problem 6, investigators wanted to assess the accuracy of
self-reported smoking status. Participants are asked whether they currently smoke or not. In
addition, laboratory tests are performed on hair samples to determine presence or absence of
nicotine. The laboratory assessment is considered the gold standard, or truth about nicotine. The
data are as follows:
Self-Reported Non-Smoker
Self-Reported Smoker
Nicotine Absent
82
12
Nicotine Present
14
52
A recent study of cardiovascular risk factors reported that 30% of adults meet criteria for
hypertension. If 15 adults are assessed, what is the probability that
a. Exactly 5 meet the criteria for hypertension?
15!
0.35 (1 0.3)155
P(X = 5) = 5!(15 5)!
0.2061.
b. None meet the criteria for hypertension
15!
0.30 (1 0.3)150
P(X = 0) = 0!(15 0)!
0.0047.
c. How many would you expect to meet the criteria for hypertension?
=np=15(0.3) = 4.5.
9.
Optimal
22
43
Normal
73
132
Hypertension
55
65
Total
150
240
65
205
120
390
10.
Diastolic blood pressures are assumed to follow a normal distribution with a mean of 85 and
a standard deviation of 12.
a. What proportion of people have diastolic blood pressure less than 90?
90 85
P(X < 90) = P(Z < 12 ) = P(Z < 0.42) = 0.6628.
b. What proportion have diastolic blood pressures between 80 and 90?
80 85
90 85
P(80 < X < 90) = P( 12 < Z < 12 ) = P(-0.42 < Z < 0.42)
= 0.6628 0.3372 = 0.3256.
c. If someone has a diastolic blood pressure of 100, what percentile is he/she in?
100 85
12 ) = P(Z < 1.25) = 0.8944, 89.44th percentile.
P(X < 100) = P(Z <
11.
Consider the data described in Problem 10. If a sample of 15 participants are sampled, what
is the probability that their mean diastolic blood pressure exceeds 90?
90 85
P( X > 90) = P(Z > 12 / 15 ) = P(Z > 1.61) = 1-0.9463 = 0.0537.
12.
Data from a large national study reports that 10% of pregnant women deliver prematurely. A
local obstetrician is seeing 16 pregnant women in his next clinic session.
a. What is the probability that none will deliver prematurely?
16!
0.10 (1 0.1)160
0
!
(
16
0
)!
P(X = 0) =
0.1853.
b. What is the probability that fewer than 3 will deliver prematurely?
P(X < 3) = P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2)
0
)!
P(X = 0) =
0.1853
16!
0.11 (1 0.1)161
1
!
(
16
1
)!
P(X = 1) =
0.3294
16!
0.12 (1 0.1)162
2
!
(
16
2
)!
P(X = 2) =
0.2745
P(X < 3) = P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2) = 0.1853 + 0.3294 + 0.2745 = 0.7892.
c. What is the probability that none will deliver prematurely if in fact the true percentage
who deliver prematurely is 5.5%?
16!
0.055 0 (1 0.055)160
P(X = 0) = 0!(16 0)!
0.4045.
d. If the true percentage is 10% and this obstetrician has 146 pregnant women under his
care, how many would be expected to deliver prematurely?
=np=146(0.1) = 14.6
13.
The following table cross classifies women in the study by their body mass index (BMI) at
16 weeks gestation and whether they had preterm delivery.
Preterm
Full Term
BMI < 30
320
4700
BMI 30-34.9
80
480
BMI 35+
120
300
In the study described in Problem 13, suppose BMI at 16 weeks gestation has a mean 28.5
with a standard deviation of 3.6 and BMI is assumed to follow a normal distribution. Find the
following:
a.
b.
c.
The BMI that separates the top 10% from the rest.
X = + Z = 28.5 + 1.282(3.6) = 33.11.
15.
Suppose we want to estimate the mean BMI for women in pregnancy at 20 weeks gestation.
If we have a sample of 100 women and measure their BMI at 20 weeks gestation, what is the
probability that the sample mean is within 1 unit of the true BMI if the standard deviation in BMI
is taken to be 3.6?
( 1)
P (-1 < X < +1) = P( 3.6/ 100
( 1)
3.6/ 100 )
17. The following table displays the number of children in a local town classified as normal
weight, overweight and obese by year in school.
Elementary
Middle
Junior High
High School
Total
Normal Weight
50
30
50
30
160
Overweight
120
45
50
85
300
Obese
80
45
40
85
250
Total
250
120
140
200
710
10
b.
c.
20. The following table summarizes data collected in a study to evaluate a new screening test for
ovarian cancer. A total of 200 women were involved in the study 50 had ovarian cancer
and 150 did not. The results are tabulated below.
Screening Test
a.
Positive
Negative
Ovarian Cancer
28
22
50
b.
c.
What proportion of women who screen positive actually have ovarian cancer?
P(Ovarian Cancer | Test Positive) = 28/51 = 0.55.
21. An experimental drug has been shown to be 75% effective in eliminating symptoms of
allergies in animal studies. A small human study involving 6 participants is conducted. What
is the probability that the drug is effective on more than half of the participants?
2012 Jones & Bartlett Learning, LLC
11
5
)!
P(X = 5) =
(6)(0.2373)(0.25) = 0.3560.
6!
0.75 6 (1 0.75) 66
6
!
(
6
6
)!
P(X = 6) =
(1)(0.1780)(1) = 0.1780.
12