Derivatives in Plain Words

THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG
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in accordance with the Books
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Derivatives in
Plain Words
by Frederic Lau, with a Preface by David Carse
OBI #
HONG KONG MONETARY AUTHORITY
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DERIVATIVES IN
Table of Contents
Page
Preface
Acknowledgements
VII
Chapter I
Risk and Return
Chapter 2
Some Fundamentals of Derivatives
Chapter 3
Pricing of a Forward Contract and the Yield Curve
12
Chapter 4
Forwards and Futures
19
Chapter 5
Swaps
24
Chapter 6
Different Types of Swaps
35
Chapter 7
Duration and Convexity
41
Chapter 8
Introduction of Options
48
Chapter 9
Delta and Volatility
54
Chapter 10
Trading Options is Trading Volatility
60
Chapter I I
The Gamma of an Option
66
Chapter 12
Mortgage-backed Securities
70
Chapter 13
Hedging with Derivatives
76
Chapter 14
Credit Derivatives
81
Chapter 15
Value at Risk
87
Chapter 16
Hang Seng Index and HIBOR Derivatives
98
Chapter 17
Managing Risks in Banks
103
Appendix
Guideline on Risk Management of Derivatives
110
and Other Traded Instruments
All opinions expressed m this book are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Hong Kong
Monetary Authority
Ever since derivatives took centre-stage in the world financial markets, they
have generated much publicity and controversy. On the one hand, critics
argue that derivatives have the potential to adversely affect banking stability.
They took some of the blame (undeservedly) for the downfall of Barings
and other notorious losses such as those suffered by the Daiwa Bank and
Orange County. On the other hand, they are applauded by those who see
derivatives as a hedging tool to reduce financial risks.
While the derivatives market in Hong Kong is not as large as that of New
York, London or Tokyo, it has grown substantially in the 1990s, Based on
the triennial survey organised by the Bank for International Settlements,
Hong Kong was the seventh largest derivatives trading centre in the world
in April 1995 with an average daily turnover of US$74 billion. The 1995
volume almost doubled that of 1992. There is an increasing trend for
financial institutions and investors in Hong Kong to use derivatives as a
hedging and yield enhancement vehicle. For example, the Exchange Fund
Ordinance gives the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) the authority
to use derivatives prudently to minimise risks when investing the funds of
the Exchange Fund.
Sound supervisory regime
The growth of the derivatives market has been a catalyst for major changes
in the way in which both banking and securities regulators approach their
task. From the supervisory point of view, financial institutions must have
adequate systems in place to ensure prudent risk management. They must
also have sufficient capital in place to support the risks. The market itself
also has an important role to play in reinforcing self-discipline, provided that
it is given sufficient information to do so. Like other regulators around the
world, the HKMA has been developing a supervisory approach to derivatives
based on these three pillars.
Preface
Risk management systems

Both banks and supervisors have always been concerned with the adequacy
of risk management systems.
However, this concern has become more
highly developed and explicit in recent years as a result of certain features

of derivatives. In particular, the capacity of derivatives to quickly change the
risk profile of a bank can make assessment of its financial condition at a
particular point in time less meaningful. This has led to greater emphasis
by supervisors on satisfying themselves that banks and other financial
institutions have adequate systems in place for measuring, managing and
controlling risk on an ongoing basis. The new approach, which is forward
looking, shifts the focus of attention more to processes rather than historical
financial performance.
The key elements of a sound risk management system have been spelt out
in the guidelines issued by the Basle Committee.
In particular, there is
emphasis on the role of the board of directors in setting the overall risk
appetite of the bank and approving policies and procedures designed to
ensure that the risk exposures incurred by the bank are consistent with that
appetite. Once risk management policies have been approved by the board,
it is the job of the management to implement these. One of the features
of modern risk management is the more scientific approach which is now
possible towards the quantification of risk. This is important because when
risk can be accurately measured, it becomes possible to take on risk in a
more informed and controlled manner In other words, banks should be in
a better position to control their own destiny rather than being at the
mercy of market forces which they do not fully understand.
This trend towards better quantification of risk is evident in the increasing
use of statistical models which attempt to measure the potential loss in a
portfolio associated with price movements of a given probability over a
specified time period. This approach has the advantage of incorporating not
only a measure of the sensitivity of the portfolio to shifts in prices, but also
an estimate of the likelihood of those shifts occurring. It also enables the
risks across different portfolios to be aggregated and reduced to a common
Preface
denominator, value at risk, which can be more intuitively understood by the

board and senior management. This approach has been developed in relation
to the measurement of market risk, but it also has application in measuring
credit risk across a portfolio.
The HKMA welcomes the use of value at risk and other statistical models.
However, there are important caveats.
First, it is possible for senior
management to be lulled into a false sense of security by such models.

While on the face of it the mathematics of the models may be quite
complex, they are in fact based on a set of simplifying assumptions, including
that changes in prices or rates are normally distributed and that positions
can be traded out within the assumed holding period.
It is important
therefore that models should not be seen as supplying the right answer
under all circumstances. If volatilities change dramatically and if market
liquidity dries up, the potential for loss may be greater than that predicted
by the model. This means that stress tests should also be used to calculate
the exposure under worst case market scenarios, which may not be probable
but which are certainly possible. This may then lead management to set
more conservative limits than the value at risk model would otherwise
imply. Thus, subjective judgement still matters.
The second point is that, as the Basle Committee has emphasised, the
qualitative controls surrounding how models are used are just as important
as the mathematics. In particular, as recent events have demonstrated, it is
vital that the data on prices and volatilities which are fed into models are
accurate and are regularly checked by an independent risk control unit. The
models themselves should be subject to regular independent review and
back-testing. This principle of checks and balances and segregation of duties
is absolutely vital for all aspects of a trading operation.
Supervisors need to have the capability to evaluate risk management systems
and the way in which models are used. In Hong Kong, we have set up a
Specialist Derivatives Team to help in formulating regulatory policies and practices,
conducting examinations of treasury operations and reviewing in-house models.
Preface
Sufficient capital to withstand losses

However, risk management is not the whole story. Even in well-run trading
operations it is possible that losses may occur as a result of unexpected
market movements and it is thus necessary to ensure that banks have
sufficient capital to be able to withstand such losses. The existing capital
adequacy framework in Hong Kong is based on the 1988 Basle Capital
Accord which almost exclusively deals with credit risk. In 1996, the Basle
Committee amended the Accord to take account of market risk. By the
end of 1997 we shall have changed our capital adequacy rules in Hong Kong
to take account of this.
It does not appear that the introduction of market risk will have a great
impact on the capital ratios of most local authorised institutions using the
"standardised approach" of the Basle Committee. Even so, in line with the
Basle recommendations, we propose to give institutions the opportunity to
economise still further on the use of capital by allowing those who are
qualified to do so the alternative of using their own internal statistical
models to calculate the capital requirement. This is in keeping with the
Basle Committee's objective of giving banks every opportunity to improve
their own internal risk management. However, as modelling is still not an
exact science, the Basle Committee has insisted that the value at risk
produced by a model should be multiplied by a factor of at least three in
order to arrive at the capital requirement.
Increased market transparency
The final leg of the supervisory approach is to try to improve the quality
of information about the derivatives activity being conducted in markets
around the world and by individual market participants.
First, supervisors are trying to improve their understanding of how derivatives
affect the overall risk profile and profitability of banks and securities firms.
The Basle Committee and the International Organisation of Securities
Commissions (IOSCO) have therefore jointly developed a framework for
Preface
the kind of information that supervisors should seek from their institutions.
The HKMA will take account of this framework in further developing the
reporting regime in Hong Kong.
Second, banks and securities companies are being encouraged to expand the
amount of public disclosure which they make about their overall involvement
in the derivatives market and trading, the impact of these activities on
profitability and their performance in managing the risks. If provided with
meaningful information, the market should be able to exert its own discipline
on institutions to manage their derivatives business in a prudent fashion. If
so, this should complement the efforts of the supervisors. In Hong Kong,
the information published by banks in their annual reports about their
involvement in derivatives and trading activities has increased greatly in
recent years. This policy of more transparency will continue.
Third, central banks are trying to obtain more statistics about activity in
global derivatives markets so that they can better monitor the macroeconomic
as well as the prudential aspects of this business. Hong Kong is participating
in this exercise.
About this book
As part of our efforts to raise the level of awareness of our staff on

derivatives and to keep abreast of market developments, Mr Frederic Lau,
the leader of the HKMA Derivatives Team started to write a series of
articles on the subject. Other past and present members of the Team,
Dr Chau Ka-lok, Dr Hui Cho-hoi, Mr Cedric Wong, Mr Henry Cheng and
Mr Adrian Pang, also contributed to the series. The articles, circulated
within the HKMA, were intended to augment the various seminars and
training programmes on derivatives organised in-house or by outside
organisations for banking supervisory staff.
We believe the series have grown to such a size that it is worth publishing
them in the form of a book to make them accessible to a larger audience.
Preface
There is no shortage of books on derivatives available in bookstores. This

book is not intended for traders or market professionals or academics who
wish to acquire advanced knowledge of derivatives. Rather, it is what its
title suggests a guide to derivatives in plain words intended for a wide
audience of non-experts. The book focuses on the underlying concepts of
derivatives, the nature and risks of different derivatives products and the
appropriate risk measurement and management techniques. Also covered
are new market developments such as credit derivatives.
I hope that this book will help to demystify derivatives and contribute to
the healthy growth of the market in Hong Kong.
David Carse
Deputy Chief Executive
Hong Kong Monetary Authority
Preface
This book is a team effort of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's (HKMA's)
Derivatives Team. Dr Chau Ka-iok not only wrote some part of the book
while he was with the HKMA, he also provided useful comments and
recommendations for other parts of the book. Dr Hui Cho-hoi provided
useful comments. Mr Cedric Wong drafted a portion of Chapter 3.
Mr Henry Cheng and Mr Adrian Pang wrote the last chapter and edited the
entire book.
In addition, Mr Donald McCormick of the Office of Thrift Supervision, US
Department of Treasury, reviewed the book and made his suggestions.
Acknowledgements
INVESTMENT RETURN AND ASSOCIATED RISK

"Risk, and risk alone, determines the degree to which returns will be above or
below average."
Burton G Malkiel '
As we all know, investment returns consist of dividend or interest income
plus change in principal or market price.
There are many ways to measure investment returns. The most common
ways are return on equity, return on assets, earnings per share, etc. But
there is one problem. All these return measurements do not tell you how
much risk is involved in the investment. For example, you invested in an oildrilling business, and the returns of your investment in the last five years
were -10 percent, 25 percent, 15 percent, -40 percent and 75 percent
respectively. The geometric mean or annual compound or time-weighted
rate of return of this investment is 6.32 percent2 What do you think about
this investment? And what kind of expected return should you have for this
type of investment? If there is a government bond yielding 6.32 percent for
the last five years, which investment would you rather have? it is clear that
in order for us to appropriately measure returns, we have to know the
associated risk.
What is risk? The American Heritage Dictionary defines risk asuthe possibility
of suffering harm or loss". In the financial field, most would consider that
risk is the chance that expected investment returns will not be materialised
and, in particular, that the investment will fall in price.
' The world renowned finance professor at Princeton University, and the author of "A Random Walk Down Wall Street".
The geometric mean or annual compound rate of return is: (0.9 x 1.25 x 1.15 x 0.6 x /J5Jm - / = 0.0632 or 6.32%.
Risk and Return
While most market participants define risk as the chance of loss, the academics
define financial risk as the variance or standard deviation of returns.
Harry Markowitz in 1952 provided a pioneering framework of modern
portfolio theory. It says that rational investors should conduct themselves
in a manner which reflects their inherent aversion to absorbing increased
risk without compensation by an adequate increase in expected return. In
other words, risk-averse investors would like to minimise risk while maximising
return. This means that for any given expected rate of return, rational
investors (risk-averse investors are rational investors) will prefer a portfolio
containing minimum expected deviation of returns around the mean. Thus
risk was defined by Markowitz as the uncertainty, or variability of returns,
measured by standard deviation of expected returns about the mean.
In the banking industry, sophisticated American and European banks have
been using "risk adjusted return on risk adjusted capital" (RARORAC) to
measure a bank's performance for a number of years. The RARORAC
concept applies a charge to all returns based on the amount of risk capital
which each activity utilises, so that business activities can easily be compared
against each other, as well as against internal target rates of return.
Management uses RARORAC to measure the performance of each line of
business, compare the profitability of different activities, and allocate human
and capital resources.
In the fund management industry, a commonly used performance measure
is the Sharpe Ratio, which is the ratio of extra return (investment return
minus the risk free rate) to standard deviation. The Sharpe Ratio is a
measure considering both return and risk. Nowadays, sophisticated financial
institutions often use the Sharpe Ratio to measure traders' performances.
MEASURING RISK
What is standard deviation? In brief, standard deviation measures variation
around an average. Say the average of 30 monthly rates of return is 15 percent,
and the standard deviation is 5 percent. Conceptually, the returns between 10
Risk and Return
percent (15 - 5) and 20 percent (15+5) fall within one standard deviation of
the average return. Similarly, the returns between 5 percent [15 - (2x5)] and
25 percent [IS+(2x5)] fall within two standard deviations of the average.
In a normally distributed sample, approximately 68 percent of the values are
within one standard deviation, approximately 95 percent of the values are
within two standard deviations, and 99.7 percent of the values are within
three standard deviations of the mean.
Based on what we just described, an investment whose returns are not
likely to deviate far from its average return or expected return is said to
carry little risk. An investment whose returns from year to year are quite
volatile (the oil-drilling business described earlier) is said to be a risky
investment.
From the eye-balling technique, we all see the annual returns
of the oil-drilling investment are volatile negative 40 percent for one year,
positive 75 percent for another. The standard deviation of the oil-drilling
investment is calculated as follows:
Year Return
%
1
2
3
4
-10
25
15
-40
75
Change in return A - Mean of change

(A)
(B)
+35
-10
-55
+ 115
Mean of change
= 21.25
13.75
-31.25
-76.25
93.75
B2
189.1
976.6
5,814.1
8,789.1
Sum of B2
= 15,768.9
Standard deviation = V15,768.9/4

= 62.8
The simple mean, or arithmetic mean, of returns in this case is 13%. Therefore,
returns between -49.8% and +75.8% fall within the range of one standard
deviation. (We discussed earlier that the annual compound rate of return
Risk and Return
of this investment is 6.32 percent which is different from the simple mean
of return here.) Obviously, the risk for this investment is tremendous.
There are other ways of measuring risk. Besides standard deviation, other
risk measurement concepts such as beta, and the latest risk measurement
concept, value at risk.
VALUE AT RISK
Value at risk is "the expected loss from an adverse market movement with
a specified probability over a period of time"3. A simple illustration may
make the picture a little clearer:
A bank has an open US$/DEM position of $1.0 million. The historical
data indicates that the one-day volatility during an adverse US$/DEM
exchange rate movement is 0.08 percent. The value at risk based on one
standard deviation, or I a, is:
$1.0 million x 0.08 percent = $800
The value at risk based on two standard deviations is:
$1.0 million x 2 x 0.08 percent = $1,600
The value at risk based on three standard deviations is:
$1.0 million x 3 x 0.08 percent = $2,400
Graphically, it is:
-$800
16%
One-tailed probability
-$1,600
2.3%
-$2,400
0.14%
Derivatives: Practices and Principles, by the Group of Thirty.
Risk and Return
This example can be interpreted as there is an approximately 16 percent

probability based on the past price movement experience that the bank may
lose $800 overnight (or there is an approximately 84 percent probability
that the loss will not be greater than $800), approximately 2.3 percent
probability the bank may lose $1,600, and approximately 0.14 percent
probability the bank may lose $2,400.
Management can use this information to measure, control and manage the
bank's open positions, design limits structure, and allocate capital. Regulators
can use this information to supervise and monitor the bank's trading activities.
From the above example, we know we need at least three things to measure
value at risk: (I) the notional amount of the underlying, (2) the number of
standard deviation required, i.e. the protection level, and (3) the volatility.
The notional amount is self-explanatory. The standard deviation is determined
by the person or persons who measure the value at risk. Market practitioners
often use two standard deviations when they measure value at risk. It means
that there is one in 40 chances that the event would occur Market
practitioners consider this acceptable. Regulators, on the other hand, are
more conservative. In the recent Basle market risk capital adequacy proposal,
a 99 percent confidence interval (approximately 2.33 standard deviations)
was proposed, and for our example above, the value at risk amount is
$ 1,864. That means banks may have to set aside more risk capital, $264 in
our example, than when using two standard deviations. The third element,
volatility is the market price fluctuation during a specific period of time.
Market participants usually use historical data of one day's price movement
to determine volatility. Some may use a longer holding period, two days or
one week instead of one day. The longer the holding period, usually the
higher the volatility. The Basle proposal requires a 10-day holding perioc
which again creates some debate in the industry. Basle's argument is thai
during an adverse market, the time needed to liquidate a position is longei
than normal However, market participants think that the 10-day holding
period is unrealistic. The Basle Committee also requires that historical dat;
should cover at least one year's data in order to be representative.
Risk and Return
Mathematically, the relation between a one-day value at risk and a 10-day

value at risk is the multiplication factor of square root of 10 (the so-called
square root of time rule). That means the value at risk in our example
based on a holding period of 10 days and 99 percent confidence level is
$ 1,864 x ^/TO or $5,894. The Basle Committee also imposes a multiplication
factor of at least three to the resultant value at risk to capture estimation
errors. This again is being seen as excessive by the banking industry. The
argument of the industry is that a combination of a 10-day holding period
and a multiplication factor of three is equivalent to a holding period of 90
days (3 x VTO = A/90) which is grossly excessive and unrealistic. The Basle
Committee thinks that the multiplication factor of three is a proper safety
net for the inaccuracy of the bank's value at risk model and other unforeseen
factors.
The concept of value at risk is relatively new. It is also much more meaningful
than notional amount, because it directly relates to the level of risk. A
simple example can illustrate this point. If someone tells you that he just
bought $50,000 of ABC Company's bond, all you know is that he has a
position of $50,000 and nothing about how much risk he is taking. But if
he also tells you that the usual daily price change of this bond is one
percent, you should realise that his daily price risk is $500.
Value at risk has a distinct advantage over notional amount, because notional
amount tells you nothing about the level of risk in which the bank is
statistically involved. Whilst it may be argued that the past cannot predict
the future, and implementing the value at risk concept is not an easy job,
value at risk is nevertheless an extremely powerful tool for decision-makers
in a bank as all the risk exposures can be summarised into one single
number.
Risk and Return
OF
In this chapter, we will discuss some of the common derivative products and
the fundamentals relating to these instruments.
OF DERIVATIVES
What is a derivative instrument?

A derivative instrument is a contract whose value depends on, or derives
from, the value of an underlying asset or index. For example, the value of
an option on IBM depends on the share price of IBM. If the share price of
IBM rises, the value of the call option of IBM also rises, although not in the
same proportion.
Derivatives include a wide variety of financial contracts, including: futures,
forwards, options, swaps, and various combinations and variations thereof, such
as caps, floors, collars, structured debt obligations, collateralised mortgage
obligations (CMO), pass through mortgage-backed securities (MBS), warrants, etc.
TYPES OF DERIVATIVES
Derivatives can be classified into two types: forwards and options.

Forward derivatives include mainly forwards, futures and swaps. The payoff
, .
. ,.^V^ r H<#
pattern ofr these instruments is linear and symmetric. It means that the
change in the value of the derivative is in the same direction and proportion
as the change in value of the underlying.
For example, counterparties A and B enter into an interest rate swap
contract in which A pays floating and receives fixed. If interest rates go up
by one percent, A will lose, say $10,000, and B will gain $10,000. If interest
rates go down by one percent, A will gain, say $10,000, and B will lose
$10,000. (For simplification of presentation, we assume a parallel shift of the

yield curve and no convexity.) The symmetric payoff pattern in this example
is apparent.
Option derivatives include options, caps, floors and all financial instruments
with embedded options such as warrants, callable bonds, MBS and CMO.
The payoff pattern of these instruments is non-linear and asymmetric. It
means that the change in value of the derivative is not in the same proportion
and may not be in the same direction as the change in value of the underlying.
For options transactions, an option buyer's risk exposure is known and
limited. This option buyer pays a premium for purchasing a call option. The
maximum amount he would lose is the premium he pays. The upside
potential for him is unlimited, because the price of the underlying could
theoretically go up by 10 times, 20 times or even 100 times. The option
writer's situation is just the opposite. He receives a premium for selling the
option. The maximum gain for him is the premium he receives. If the price
of the underlying soars, his loss could be tremendous. Therefore, an option
writer's risk exposure is unknown and unlimited.
In the above discussion, you can also see how leverage comes into play in
option transactions. The option buyer pays a relatively small premium to
participate in the market. On the one hand, he could lose all the premium
he pays. On the other hand, he could gain 10 or even 100 times of the
premium he pays if the market soars.
SOME HISTORY ABOUT DERIVATIVES
The history of derivatives goes back as far as the Middle Ages. In those days,
farmers and merchants used futures and forwards to hedge their risks.
For instance, a farmer harvested grain in July. But in April, he was uncertain
about what price of grain he would get in July. During the years of oversupply,
the farmer bore tremendous price risk as the price of grain would be lower
than he expected, and he might not recover the cost of production.
A grain merchant also bore tremendous price risk during the years of
scarcity when the price of grain was higher than expected. Therefore, it
made sense for the farmer and the merchant to get together in April to
agree upon a price in July for grain.
This was how the futures and
forwards market developed in grain hundreds of years ago; and then pork
bellies, cotton, coffee, petroleum, soya bean, sugar, currencies, interest rates
... and even garbage. The Chicago Board of Trade started trading three
kinds of garbage plastics, glasses and paper in October 1995.
PARTICIPANTS IN DERIVATIVES MARKETS

Three kinds of people participate in derivatives markets: the hedgers, the
speculators and the arbitrageurs.
Hedgers are risk-averse. Like the farmer and the merchant in the above
example, they want the future sales price of the merchandise to be known
in advance and the transaction be consummated at this known sales price.
In doing so, they may give up some upside potential. In the example, if the
price of grain rose substantially in July, the farmer would not benefit from
it because he had already sold the merchandise at a price determined in
April. Hedgers do not care much about the future potential. All they want
is to reduce their price risk. However, now that both the merchant and the
farmer had hedged their risks, this does not mean that they had nothing to
worry about. The farmer still worried that the price of grain in July would
fall drastically and the merchant would not fulfil his promise to buy the grain
at the agreed upon price. Or the merchant simply did not have the money
to pay for the grain in July. This is what we call credit risk. Hedgers can
hedge away their price risk, but they cannot eliminate credit risk.
Contrary to hedgers who want to avoid uncertainty in price movements,
speculators want to take advantage of price movements. For example, if a
speculator thinks that the stock market in Hong Kong will go up in the next
several months, he can buy a three-month Hang Seng Index (HS1) futures
contract at the current index level of 14,500.
If the stock market in
Hong Kong does go up and the HSI rises to 15,000, the speculator can sell
the three-month futures contract at 15,000 and take a 500 point profit. But
we know that the chance for the market to go up or down is 50/50 if the
market follows a random walk. In other words, the speculator has a 50
percent chance of losing and a 50 percent chance of winning. The speculator
may lose a substantial amount of money if his prediction of market does not
materialise.
The third kind of participants are arbitrageurs. Arbitrageurs look for
opportunities to lock in a riskless profit by simultaneously buying and selling
the same (or similar) financial product in different markets. The fundamental
behind arbitrage is that financial markets are not perfect. From time to
time, price differential of the same product between different markets in
different parts of the world at the same time does exist, especially
combining the currency element. For us, arbitrage strategy will not work,
because the transaction cost will probably wipe out the profit even if we
do find an arbitrage chance. Big investment houses incur very little transaction
cost. They are the major players in this market. But remember Barings, its
management put the company to the ground using a supposedly riskless
arbitrage strategy.
When bank regulators conduct examinations, it is sensible for them to find
out what the institution's strategic goal in derivatives business is. Is it a hedger,
speculator or arbitrageur? Regulators can also review the institution's revenue
report to identify the sources of treasury revenues. If 80 percent of an
institution's treasury revenues are from position-taking activity, examiners usually
would watch that institution's treasury operation a bit closer. The reason is
that position-takers in treasury instruments, both cash and derivatives, are
speculators. In other words, they are gamblers. As we have just discussed,
when you take an out-right position in any financial instrument, there is a
50 percent chance that the price of that instrument will go up and a 50
percent chance it will go down. As soon as you have taken an out-right
position, you have no control over what the price will be in the next minute.
Should we criticise banks for engaging in position-taking business?
Not
really. All businesses involve some degree of risk taking and speculation.
Banking business is no exception. But it all depends on how much a bank
speculates. Most banks conduct derivatives business because they have to
serve their clients who either take or hedge their business risks. They come
to banks for solution.
In the process of serving these clients,
it is
inevitable for banks to take some out-right positions. Also, banks' trading
activities can facilitate liquidity which would reduce transaction cost for all
market participants. In addition, banks take positions because they have to
get the "market feel" to better serve their clients. Moreover, from time to
time, banks have their own views on interest rate or exchange rate
movements. It is perfectly all right for them to take out-right positions in
those circumstances. When banks engage in position-taking activities, they
have to consider a number of things, such as the capital level of the
institution, business strategies, trading expertise, management's understanding
of the markets, systems and controls, back-office supports, etc.
3
OF A
THE
PRICING OF A FORWARD CONTRACT

We are now going to look at the spot and forward price relationship. There
are at least two ways to purchase an asset at a future date. One way is
to purchase the asset now and store it until the target future date. The
other way is to enter into a forward contract that calls for the purchase
of the asset on that target future date. In theory, these two methods should
lead to the same result If the results are different, someone (the arbitrageurs)
can make a risk-free profit by selling the asset in one market and buying in
another simultaneously. This arbitrage activity will continue until the spot
and forward prices go back to their respective theoretical levels.
For example, you plan to host a Christmas party one year from now for all
your colleagues and you need 100 turkeys. To have all the turkeys you need,
you can either:
STRATEGY A
Buy 100 turkeys and pay the market price of turkey (assuming it to be $100
each) in cash today for $10,000 and put them in the refrigerator and store
them for one year (assuming there is no storage cost).
STRATEGY B
Enter into a one-year forward contract today to buy 100 turkeys at a total price
of SF and invest some money to make the total principal and interest just
enough to pay for the forward contract one year from now. Now the question
is: how much should SF be in order to prevent any arbitrage activity?
' Port of this chapter was written by Mr Chau KO-/O/C and Mr Cedric Wong.
In Strategy A, you pay $10,000 to obtain SOO turkeys today. Your $10,000
are gone and you cannot use them again to do anything. But in Strategy
B, you do not pay the $ 10,000 for the turkeys today. You pay one year later.
All you have to do now is enter into a forward contract. So what are you
going to do with the $ 10,000? The most logical way is to invest them in
some risk-free assets, such as US Treasury Bills.
Assuming that the current risk-free rate of return is 5 percent, compounding
annually.
SF= $10,000 x (I + 5%)
= $10,500
And $10,500 is the forward price which is what you should pay for the 100
turkeys one year from today.
What happens if the forward price is now quoted at $1 1,000? An arbitrageur
can sell the forward contract to you at $11,000, borrow $10,000 from a
bank at a rate of 5 percent (assuming he can obtain this risk-free borrowing
rate), buy 100 turkeys and store them for one year (again assuming there
is no storage cost). After one year, the arbitrageur can make a risk-free
profit of $500 by repaying the bank $10,500, deliver 100 turkeys to you and
get your $ I 1,000. And if the arbitrageurs keep selling these one-year turkey
forwards, the forward price will eventually decline to say, $10,900.
At
$10,900, the arbitrageurs can still make a risk-free profit of $400 and they
will continue to sell these forward contracts. This process continues until
the forward price reaches its theoretical level of $10,500.
This is the simplest way to explain the price relationship between spot and
forward. Pricing forwards actually is more complicated because storage is
usually not free.
For arbitrageurs, risk-free borrowing rates are usually
unattainable.
COST OF CARRY
In the above example, it is shown that an "equilibrium" will be reached so

that the forward price of an asset can be determined. In that example, it
is assumed that no cost will be incurred for storing the turkeys for one year.
Now the question is: what should the three-month forward price be if it
costs $1.00 to store each turkey for one year?
We can use the strategy above and change the forward period from one
year to three months. We borrow $10,000 today from the bank at an
interest rate of 5% per annum to buy 100 turkeys.
For a three-month
period we have to pay 5/4 = 1.25% interest. Therefore we have to pay

$ 10,000 x (I +0.0125)=$ 10,125 back to the bank. At the same time, we have
to pay the warehouse $100 x 1/4 = $25 for the storage cost That means
it would cost us $ 10,150 in total. In order to prevent arbitrage opportunities,
the forward price would come down until it converges to the price given
by this strategy, which is $10,150/100 = $101.50 per turkey.
If the forward price at two years is required, then the amount paid back
to the bank has to be calculated with compound interest, that is
$10,000 x (I+0.05)2 = $1 1,025. Adding a storage cost of $1 x 100 x 2 =
$200, the forward price is thus $(l 1,025+200)/100 = $1 12.25.
The above illustrates the relationship between the forward price and the
spot price (the price of the asset today), and it can be summarised in terms
of what is known as the cost of carry. This measures the storage costs plus
the interest that is paid to finance the asset less the income earned on the
asset. Storage costs may include transportation costs and other costs that
are incurred during the period (t).
Usually the storage costs and income
are expressed in terms of amount per asset (as in the definition of the risk
free interest rate r).
For a commodity with a storage cost u that is
measured as a percentage of the price, the cost of carry is r + u. For a

dividend paying stock, it is r - q where q is the dividend. The forward price
F is then related to the spot price S by
F = S(l + r + u - q?
THE YIELD CURVE

In the above sections, you have seen the pricing of simple forward contracts
relating to physical assets. The same principle can be applied to the pricing
of equity related forwards.
However, the pricing of interest rate and
foreign exchange related contracts is slightly more complicated. Before we

move on to interest rate related derivatives, it is important to understand
some basics about the markets. The most important concept is the yield
curve.
Many people working in investment banks are paid
"telephone-
number-like" salaries just for guessing and playing with the "shapes" of the
yield curves and putting in trades in order to benefit from the movements
of these curves, so you would appreciate the importance of this.
For a simple definition of a yield curve, though it is arguable, most people
would use one of the following:
it is a plot of I) yield of government
securities or 2) annual compounded interest rate (zero coupon yield, or the

yield of a zero coupon bond) against time.
For most currencies, you will
see interest rates for maturities of five years or more. An example is given
in the graph below.
An example yield curve

8.5% T
10
Time (years)
This graph is sometimes referred to as the "Term Structure of Interest Rates".
In many markets, zero coupon rates of less than one year in maturity are
quoted by different banks and brokers. However,
one.year
rates for longer than
maturity are not quoted. They are usually obtained from the
prices of other traded instruments, for example interest rate futures and
interest rate swap rates. From these prices, the equivalent zero coupon
bond yields of the different maturities are calculated. This process is known
as "stripping" the yield curve.
How could we know what the level of the rates should be in a few years
time? We need to have some reference interest rates to start with. In most
big countries, the government would issue some debt instruments to borrow
money from the public. These instruments have fixed coupons and have a
wide range of maturities. As expected, the US government is the biggest
issuer of debt instruments, and the Treasury bills and bonds have maturites
ranging from one week to thirty years. Other governments usually issue
instruments of shorter maturities. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority
(HKMA) has recently issued some bonds with maturity in ten years, which
give indication of the interest rates up to ten years. From these bond yields,
the market would establish the rates of the different traded instruments,
usually at a "spread" above the bond yields.
THEORIES OF TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES

Most of you would have come across time deposit accounts. The big banks
usually offer fixed term deposits from one week up to one year and offer
different interest rates for different fixed periods. After deregulation, these
interest rates are affected by the market rates, so this is very close to the
actual yield curve. (In reality, the deposit rates offered by banks are slightly
higher than the Hong Kong dollar yield curve. This reflects the credit risk
of the banks.)
It is common knowledge that in most circumstances the
longer the fixed period, the higher the interest rate. In fact, historically,
yield curves are mostly upward sloping, which means that long-term interest
rates are higher than short-term interest rates. People have been trying to
explain this phenomenon and come up with three popular theories:
Unbiased Expectations Theory
This theory proposes that the forward rate represents the average
opinion of the expected future spot rate (or short-term interest rate)
for the period in question. For example, if today's one-year interest
rate is 6% and it is expected that this one-year interest rate will rise to
8% in one year's time, then this situation would be reflected in today's
two-year rate. There should be no difference between a) we invest the
money for a fixed one-year period and re-invest this amount with interest
for another year; and b) invest the money for a fixed two-year period.
Given the interest rates above, the two-year rate today could be
calculated by:
(I + r) x (I + r) = (I + 0.06) x (I + 0.08)
which gives r = 6.995%. In other words, this theory suggests that, if
today's two-year rate is 6.995%, it implies that the marketplace (that
is, the general opinion of the investors) believes that the one-year rate
would rise to 8% in one year's time.
Market Segmentation Theory
Under the theory, different investors and borrowers are supposed to

be restricted by law, preference, or custom to certain maturities and
they do not switch maturities. There need be no relationship between
short-, medium-, and long-term interest rates. The short-term interest
rate is determined by supply and demand in the short-term bond
market, the medium-term interest rate is determined by supply and
demand in the medium-term bond market, and so on. However, this
theory is not as popular as the other two theories as it does not
directly explain why yield curves are upward sloping more often then
downward sloping.
Liquidity Preference Theory
In some ways this is the most appealing theory. It argues that forward
rates should always be higher than expected future short-term interest
rates. The basic assumption is that, as an investor, you would probably
like to put money in a short-term fixed period account (if the interest
rate offered is the same as that of a longer-term fixed account) because
it would not tie up the money for too long in case you need it.
Borrowers, on the other hand, usually prefer to borrow at fixed rates

for longer periods of time. For example, if the bank offers a relatively
low mortgage rate today, you would probably want to arrange a fixed
rate mortgage for say the next 10 years so that you would be certain
that you get a good offer for a long period of time. In the absence of
any incentive to do otherwise, this is how people would behave, i.e.
investors would deposit their money for short time periods, and
borrowers would choose to borrow for longer periods. Banks would
then find themselves financing substantial amounts of longer-term fixed
rate loans with short-term deposits. This would involve a high degree
of interest rate risk. In practice, in order to match depositors with
borrowers and avoid the risk, banks raise long-term interest rates relative
to expected future short-term interest rates. This reduces the demand
for long-term fixed rate borrowing and encourages investors to deposit
their money for long terms.
This theory leads to a situation that long rates are higher than the
expected future short-term rates. It is consistent with the empirical
result that yield curves tend to be upward sloping more often than they
are downward sloping.
These three theories or the combination thereof provide the fundamental
framework explaining the term structure of interest rates.
INTEREST RATE FUTURES AND FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS
In the last chapter we have looked at some theories about the yield curve.
In this chapter, we will look at some applications. The simplest kinds of
interest rate derivatives are futures and forward rate agreements (FRAs).
These two types of contracts are essentially identical; one major difference
is that a futures contract is an exchange-traded contract and has fixed terms
for the notional amount, length of contract, expiry date etc. whereas an FRA
is an over-the-counter (OTC) contract which is a binding agreement between
two parties.
Another difference is that, as with other exchange-traded
products, a minimum margin payment is required for the futures contract,

whereas the actual payment for the FRA would only be settled at the expiry
date. Other than these differences, the two types of instruments are priced
in the same way.
For instance, today is 24/1/97 and assume that we have the following term
structure of interest rate: 6-month rate of 5%, 9-month rate of 5.5%. What
is the 3-month forward rate in 6-months' time, using today's market rate?
-5.5%-
.5%
today
' This chapter was written by Mr Chau KO-/O/C
6 month
9 month
Again we use our method of having two strategies which should arrive at the
same result (i.e. a no-arbitrage method). If we assume the forward rate to
be r, starting with $1 today, at the end of 9 months we would either get
(I + 5.5% x 9/n) [A straightforward 9-month fixed rate deposit]
or
(I + 5 % x 6 / i 2 ) x ( l + r%x 3 /n)
[6-month fixed rate deposit, rollover for another 3 months]
giving r = 6.34%. This is the interest rate for the period between 24/7/97
and 24/10/97 as of today, and is equivalent to a quoted futures price of
(100 - 6.34) = 93.66.
If today's date becomes 24/4/97. At this day, the 3-month rate has become
6%, whereas the 6-month rate is 6.5%. The forward rate for the period
between 24/7/97 and 24/10/97 is then calculated by:
(I + 6.5% x 6/i2)
(I + r% x 3/l2) = -'
(I + 6% x 3/i2)
which gives r = 6.90% (or a futures price of 93.10).
What is the implication on the profit-and-loss of the trade? If this is marked
to market, it implies that there is a 56 basis point loss (93.66 - 93.10) if the
position in the futures contract is to be closed out immediately. If this is
a US dollar futures contract and the notional amount is US$ 1 ,000,000, the
loss converts to $1,000,000 x 0.0056 x 3 /i2= $1,400.
The above examples give an illustration of a method of calculating interest
rate forwards. Alternatively, we can express the calculation in a more general
way. Recalling the definition of the discounting factor (DF, the amount today
which represents a future value of $1 using today's interest rate), we see that
in the first example the discounting factors for 6-month and 9-month are
(!+5%x6/i2)
. ,
- = -- = 0.9756,
DF9-mth
= 0.9604
(l+5.5%x9/.2)
The equation to calculate the forward rate between 24/7/97 and 24/10/97 is then
(I + 5.5% x 9/i2)
In other words, if we have to calculate the forward rate between time a and
b (where a is before b and a, fa are expressed in years), the formula to use is
Real market situations are seldom as simple as that. The first complication
is when the discounting factor of more than one year is required, a
compounding formula has to be used instead of calculating it as a simple
interest. Other than that the same principle could be used and the above
general formula could still apply. Secondly, when marking-to-market, the
rates for the start and end dates are seldom given directly. In the above
example, we assume that 3-month periods are exactly 0.25 year. To be
more accurate, the time period should be calculated based on the day
convention of the market. If the day convention is actual/365, the time
period should be calculated by the difference in the number of days between
the start and the end divided by 365. Assume that today is 10/3/97 and the
forward rate between 24/7/97 and 24/10/97 is required. In the market, only
rates for I, 3, 6, 9, 12 months are quoted. To calculate the discounting
factors at 24/7/97 (which is 136 days from today) and 24/10/97 (which is
228 days from today), some kind of interpolation is required. Using the
figures in the above example (3-month rate is 6%, 6-month rate 6.5%), and
assuming the 9-month rate is 6.8%, we work out the 136-day rate (n) and
228-day rate (ri) using a simple linear interpolation,
n-6%
6.5% - 6%
^(24/7/97- 10/6/97)
n-6.5%
(10/9/97 - 10/6/97) ' 6.8% - 6.5%
_ (24/10/97- 10/9/97)
(10/12/97 - 10/9/97)
giving n=6.239%, n=6.645%. Different banks use different methods in

interpolating for the rates between fixed dates and the answer could be
slightly different (e.g. interpolate on the product of rate times maturity
instead of on the rate, or fitting a curve to all the fixed points on the curve).
There is no absolutely "correct" way to get to the right answer. Using these
rates, the forward rate for the period 24/7/97 to 24/10/97 can be calculated
as follows:
The discounting factors are:
DF/ =
(I + 6.239% x
= 0 9773, DF2 =
= 0.9601
/365)
(I + 6.645% x 228/36s)
I36
The forward rate is calculated using

L
(228365
DF2
which gives r = 7.1 I %.
MOVEMENTS OF THE YIELD CURVE

Before we move on to other types of derivatives, there is one final concept
to be introduced here. We often hear from the news that "central banks
are cutting the interest rates". Have you ever wondered what exactly this
means? It does not imply that the central bank has cut the interest rates
across all maturities by the same margin. If so, the curve would always move
in a parallel fashion. In reality only one reference rate (usually an overnight
rate) is changed. The effect on the rates with long maturities is usually
different from that of the short maturities. There are three important ways
that the yield curve can move:
1) Parallel shift - the whole curve moves up or down by the same margin.
2) Change of slope - the curve moves in opposite direction around a pivot
point. (The curve "steepens" or "flattens".)
3) Change of convexity - rates of different maturities move by different
magnitudes. (The curve "twists".)
(1)
(2)
Rate
(3)
Rate
Time
Rate
Time
Time
In the first part of this chapter, it is shown that the price of an interest rate
forward can be obtained using today's market data. That is what the rate
is expected to be given today's information.
However, for some more
complicated derivatives, we need to know what the yield curve would

possibly look like in the future. For example, we are asked to price an
option today of the 3-month forward given in the above example. In that
case, although we know that the expected forward rate given by today's
data is 6.34%, it is also very likely that the yield curve will move in the next
6 months. In order to price the option we need to know how this curve
will move. This is considerably more difficult than the pricing of derivatives
on other assets, because here we have to model the movement of the
whole curve, whereas for other asset classes only the spot variable (e.g. the
exchange rate or the stock price) needs to be modelled.
People have carried out research as to how these yield curves move over
time in practice. Empirical results using US data show that a combination
of parallel shift and change of slope can explain over 90% of the movements
of the curves. This is an important piece of information because by knowing
that two kinds of movements can account for most of the changes in the
yield curves, we can simplify the modelling process and approximate the
movements by summarising these using one or two "factors", which makes
the life of the "rocket scientist"2 much easier.
A nickname for those people who used to study Astrophysics and similar subjects and then apply this
knowledge to design exotic financial derivative products.
In this chapter, we will discuss what a swap is, its related concepts, and the
mechanism of interest rate swaps, cross currency swaps and other types of swaps.
WHAT is A SWAP?
When we talk about swaps, we usually talk about interest rate swaps and
cross currency swaps. These are so called generic or basic swaps.
In
general, a generic swap is a contract in which two parties agree to exchange

periodic payments within an agreed time period.
Other generic swaps
include contracts which involve exchanging baskets of securities or

commodities.
There are also non-generic swaps. They usually contain
variations of generic swaps and other derivative instruments.

WHY
FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS SWAP?
The concept of a swap is quite simple. It is no more complicated than

swapping things between two parties. If I have commodity A that I do not
need, you have commodity B that you do not need, and we both need the
other's commodity, the best solution is to exchange (swap) these two
commodities at a reasonable pre-determined price. Please see example below:
ABC Bank's asset/liability structure is liability sensitive (this is a bankers'
jargon which means that the liabilities are re-priced faster than the
assets) because the duration (it means the term-to-maturity here) of its
deposits is shorter than the duration of its loans. This creates a mismatch
between its assets and liabilities. In order to balance this mismatch, ABC
Bank can do two things: (I) extend its liability duration by offering only
longer-term deposits or shorten its asset duration by making only shorterterm loans or floating rate loans; and/or (2) utilise risk management tools
(derivatives) to modify its asset/liability structure.
Swaps
It is not practical to actually change a bank's asset or liability duration b>

intentionally lending short or borrowing long. This may prove to be more
costly. The practical way to extend its liability duration or shorten its
asset duration is to utilise risk management tools, such as swaps to
accomplish this task. We will discuss this arrangement in detail later.
XYZ Life Insurance Company's asset/liability structure is asset sensitive.
It collects insurance premiums from policy holders each month for many
years and pays them out when the policy expires (usually in tens of
years) or when the insured is dead. This also creates a mismatch between
assets and liabilities.
Its situation is just the opposite of ABC Bank.
Therefore, XYZ Life Insurance Company and ABC Bank can come to
an agreement to swap something in order to balance their asset/liability
structures.
THE HISTORY OF SWAPS

The idea of financial swap was created in the UK as a means of circumventing
foreign-exchange controls in the 1970s, which were intended to prevent an
outflow of British capital. At that time, the British Government imposed
taxes on foreign-exchange transactions involving the British pounds to make
outflow of capital more expensive in order to induce domestic investment.
During that period, companies frequently used back-to-back loans to avoid
such taxes. The mechanism of back-to-back loans is: they involved two
companies domiciled in two different countries. One company agreed to
borrow funds in its own country and then lend those borrowed funds to
the other company. The second company, in return, borrowed funds in its
own country and then lent them to the first company. By doing so, both
companies were able to access the foreign capital market without formal
exchanges of currencies and thus avoided paying any foreign exchange taxes
This simple arrangement later developed into more sophisticated cross
currency swaps and interest rate swaps with banks and investment houses
as middle men to bridge counterparties who needed these arrangements
(This may be a good example to prove to the free-market advocates, whc
Swaps
often complain that there is too much regulation, that regulation could
sometimes lead to the best for the market.) The first currency swap was
written in London in 1979 between the World Bank and IBM, and was put
together by Salomon Brothers. It allowed the World Bank to obtain Swiss
Francs and Deutschemarks to finance its operations in Switzerland and
West Germany without entering these two countries' capital markets directly.
COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE
Before we get into the mechanism of interest rate swaps, two more
concepts need to be established. Companies can exchange something of
which they have a comparative advantage over their counterparties. For
example, XYZ Insurance Company and ABC Bank both want to borrow
$100 million for five years. XYZ wants to borrow floating rate funds and
ABC wants to borrow fixed rate funds. XYZ can borrow fixed rate funds
at 6 percent and floating rate funds at LIBOR plus 0.5 percent in its own
country. ABC can borrow fixed rate funds at 7.5 percent and floating rate
funds at LIBOR plus 1.0 percent in its own country. XYZ has an absolute
advantage over ABC in both fixed and floating rate markets (probably because
XYZ is more credit-worthy and banks are prepared to lend to it at a lower
rate or because the markets are imperfect). But the important thing is:
ABC has a comparative advantage over XYZ in floating rate markets. This
is because the difference between the two fixed rates is 1.5 percent and the
difference between the two floating rates is 0.5 percent. In other words,
ABC pays 1.5 percent more than XYZ in fixed rate markets but only pays
0.5 percent more than XYZ in floating rate markets. When we say ABC has
a comparative advantage over XYZ in floating rate markets, it does not
mean that ABC pays less than XYZ in floating rate markets. What it means
is that ABC pays less more than XYZ in floating rate markets. On the other
hand, XYZ has a comparative advantage over ABC in fixed rate markets
because it pays more less than ABC in fixed rate markets. What makes a
swap work in this situation is that XYZ wants to borrow floating but it has
a comparative advantage over ABC in fixed rate markets; and ABC wants to
borrow fixed but it has a comparative advantage over XYZ in floating rate
markets.
Swaps
SWAP DEALERS
The second concept we need to understand is the concept of the middleman

- the swap dealer. In the real world, we do not call everybody in the
financial market telling them that we have a comparative advantage over
them and ask them to make a swap deal. Finding the right counterparties
is usually through swap dealers (or brokers). They make the finding of the
right counterparties a much easier job and substantially enhance the market
liquidity. These middlemen will charge market participants a fee - usually in
the form of bid/ask spread. This concept is also important because without
swap dealers, the swap market will not develop that fast.
INTEREST RATE SWAPS
Interest rate swaps involve a counterparty paying a floating rate based on

an agreed-upon index and the other counterparty paying a fixed rate for the
entire term of the contract. In the earlier example, ABC Bank and XYZ
Life Insurance Company could swap what they need and what they do not
need in order to achieve their asset/liability management goals. We would
ignore the transaction cost and the middleman and assume ABC and XYZ
negotiate this contract directly. XYZ agrees to pay ABC LIBOR flat and
ABC agrees to pay XYZ 6.0 percent fixed on $ 100 million for five years.
Does this swap benefit both parties? If yes, by how much?
All the relations of this transaction can be seen easily in the following
diagram:
6.0%
Outside lender
-<
1 XYZ I
LIBOR
> I ABC I
LIBOR+1.0%
> Outside lender
6.0%
From the above diagram, we can see that XYZ has three cash flows:
1. It pays 6.0 percent to its outside lender,
2. It pays LIBOR flat to ABC, and
3. It receives 6.0 percent from ABC.
Swaps
ABC also has three cash flows:

1. It pays LIBOR plus 1.0 percent to its outside lender,
2. It pays 6.0 percent fixed to XYZ, and
3. It receives LIBOR flat from XYZ.
For XYZ Life Insurance Company, its net funding cost in this transaction
is LIBOR flat, which is lower than LIBOR plus 0.5 percent at which it can
borrow in its own country. It also has achieved its objective by modifying
its asset/liability structure using derivatives. In this case, XYZ has shortened
its liability duration by entering the swap. Instead of paying 6.0 percent
fixed, XYZ now pays LIBOR flat.
For ABC Bank, its net funding cost in this transaction is 7.0 percent, which
is also lower than the rate of 7.5 percent at which it can borrow in its own
country. It also has achieved its objective by modifying its asset/liability
structure using derivatives. In this case, ABC has extended its liability
duration by entering the swap. Instead of paying LIBOR plus 1.0 percent,
ABC now pays 7.0 percent fixed for 5 years. (You may assume that ABC has
a $100 million fixed rate five year loan portfolio and a $100 million 7-day
deposit portfolio. By entering into this swap, its interest rate risk or asset/
liability maturity mismatch has largely reduced.)
Coincidental!^ both ABC and XYZ reduce their funding cost by 0.5 percent
CROSS CURRENCY SWAPS
The main difference between interest rate swaps and cross currency swaps
is that cross currency swaps usually involve exchange and re-exchange of
principals whereas interest rate swaps do not. A typical cross currency
swap has three sets of cash flows: the initial exchange of principals at the
beginning, the exchange of interest payments during the contract period,
and the re-exchange of principals at the end. The following diagrams illustrate
the three sets of cash flows of a cross currency swap:
Swaps
At inception
10 billion
Counterparty A
Counterparty B
US$100 million
On each settlement date

(including maturity)
Counterparty A
US$ (5) LIBOR
Counterparty B
At maturity
Counterparty A
of
10 billion
w
i ictf- 1 r\fN
Counterparty B
:ii:
There are also cross currency swaps which do not involve exchange of
principals.
VALUATION OF SWAPS
As an example, please consider an interest rate swap with the following
conditions:
the notional amount is US$100 million;
the term of the contract is five years;
ABC pays XYZ 6 percent fixed and receives 6-month LIBOR;
XYZ pays ABC 6-month LIBOR and receives 6 percent fixed; and
interest payments are settled semi-annually.
We can make the above example a bit closer to our traditional banking
business. If we assume exchange and re-exchange principals do exist (similar
to cross currency swaps), the above example is the same as the following:
ABC lends to XYZ US$100 million at 6-month LIBOR for five years; and
XYZ lends to ABC US$100 million at a fixed rate of 6 percent for five
years.
You can even consider that ABC has purchased a $100 million floating rate
bond from XYZ and sold to XYZ a $100 million fixed rate bond for the
same terms.
Swaps
Assuming that there is no transaction cost, at the inception of a swap transaction,

the market value of both sides of the transaction is zero. The reason is
obvious - in a liquid and generally efficient market, nobody can take advantage
of its counterparty or else the counterparty will transact the deal with someone
else. Swap pricing is the process of setting the fixed rate so that the present
value of cash flows of the swap is initially zero. Credit spread will then add
to one side of the swap to reflect the credit quality of the counterparty.
During the life of the swap, if the yield curve (in particular, this implied
forward rates) remains unchanged, the market values for both sides are
always zero. However, say, after one year, the current market fixed rate for
a new four year interest rate swap is 7 percent. The swap would have a
negative mark-to-market (M-T-M) value to XYZ and a positive M-T-M
value to ABC. This is because XYZ has a contract with ABC to receive fixed
rate of 6 percent and pay LIBOR for four more years while everyone else
in the market can enter into a swap contract to receive fixed rate at 7
percent and pay LIBOR for four years. But unless XYZ defaults, its contract
with ABC remains legally binding for four more years.
Using the present value cash flow concept, we can calculate the loss for XYZ:
8 $3,500,000
Z
t=l (1+0.035)'
8 $3,000,000
= $3,436,978
t=l (1+0.035)*
(There are 8 settlements remaining in the contract. $3,500,000 and

$3,000,000 are the semi-annual fixed interest payments at 7 percent and 6
percent respectively.)
If you have an HP I2C financial calculator, you can do the following to
calculate the M-T- M loss for XYZ in the above transaction:
$100 million
8
3
: FV
:N
:PMT
3.5
:i
PV
= -96,563,022
Loss = $100,000,000 - $96,563,022 = $3,436,978
Swaps
The loss for XYZ is the gain for ABC. You can easily see that ABC is at
a position just opposite to XYZ. It has the benefit of paying 6 percent fixed
for four more years while the market rate for a similar transaction is 7
percent.
In the above example, a simple approach is used to demonstrate the M-T-M
calculation.
Sophisticated market participants would create a new zero
coupon curve to discount the cash flows at each settlement point.

Nevertheless, the concept of present value cash flow is still the same.
CREDIT RISK OF SWAPS
The principles that govern the management of credit risk of swaps are the
same as other traditional banking business. Nevertheless, the measurement
of the exposure of a swap is more complicated.
The credit risk of a swap is the swap's current exposure, which is the
replacement cost or the current M-T-M value, if positive, plus its future
replacement cost. This is the so-called "current exposure method". The
current exposure method is not just an appropriate method for measuring
credit risk of swaps. It is recommended by the Basle Committee and the
G-30 for measuring credit risk of all derivatives.
The current exposure is straightforward. It is just the current M-T-M value
of a swap position if positive. If the M-T-M value is negative, the holder of
the position does not have current credit exposure. This is because credit
default occurs when a counterparty does not fulfill its financial obligation. It
will not default if it has a financial instrument with a positive market value.
Conservative market participants usually assign a zero value for an instrument
whose M-T-M value is negative unless there is a bilateral netting agreement.
The measurement of the future replacement cost or the "potential exposure"
of a swap or a derivative instrument is quite complicated. It usually needs
Swaps
simulation techniques and mathematical models to derive a meaningful

measurement result. The analysis generally involves modelling the volatility
of the underlying variables and the effect of movements of these variables
on the value of the derivatives.
For interest rate swaps, the variable is
interest rates.
Because it does not involve exchange and re-exchange of principals, the risk
profile of a typical interest rate swap is shown in the diagram1 below:
Risk
109876
5
4
Hump-back
Maximum Exposure
Time
(The scale on the left is the percentage of notional amount at risk.)

The expected exposure is the mean of all possible probability-weighted
replacement costs. The maximum potential exposure is an estimate of the
"worst case" exposure at any point in time.
The so-called "hump-back" profile is due to two offsetting effects: diffusion
effect and amortisation effect The diffusion effect says that due to the
passage of time, there is an increase of probability that the value of the
underlying instrument will drift substantially away from its original value.
' This diagram is adapted from "Derivatives: Practices and Principles" by the Group of Thirty.
Swaps
The amortisation effect is the reduction in the number of settlements as time

elapses.
For an interest rate swap, its peak exposure for default is when sufficient
time has passed, the counterparty finds itself at an adverse position, and
there is sufficient time remaining for this adverse position to continue. This
usually happens at about the intermediate point during the life of a contract.
Because there is no final exchange of principals, the risk exposure drops
gradually to zero at maturity after it reaches the maximum.
For cross currency swaps, the risk profile is different because the re-exchange
of principals at the end increases the diffusion effect and reduces the
amortisation effect:
Maximum Exposure
Expected Exposure
Time
How do you aggregate the maximum exposure of these two swaps? It is

incorrect to simply add the two notional amounts together or add the two
maximum exposure amounts together and say that is the maximum exposure.
Why? It is easy to see it if you stagger the two above diagrams together.
The maximum exposure of the interest rate swap happens at about the
mid-point of the transaction while the maximum exposure of the currency
swap is still increasing. The maximum exposure for the currency swap is at
the end of the transaction. At that time, the exposure for the interest rate
swap has reduced to zero.
For a portfolio of two swaps, you can still
manage to aggregate the risk manually. If there is a portfolio of hundreds

or thousands of swaps,
it is necessary to use simulation technique to
aggregate counterparty credit risk.
Swaps
The calculation of credit risk process has not finished yet. So far, we have
only measured the potential current and future exposures if a counterparty
defaults. But what is the probability that this counterparty will default? The
probability of default is generally viewed to be a function of credit ratings
and of the maturity of the transaction. The lower the credit rating and the
longer the maturity, the higher the probability of default. The maturity
factor is straightforward and does not need any explanation. Credit analysis
for swaps, however, is more a qualitative analysis than quantitative analysis,
and is an art rather than a science. Again, it is no different from credit
analysis for regular loans or for any other banking products.
After a reasonable probability of default factor is derived, the simplest way
to estimate credit loss for a swap is to multiply the expected or maximum
exposure by the specified probability of default factor. Others use more
sophisticated simulation analyses.
Swaps
6
OF
In the previous chapter, we introduced two simple kinds of generic swaps:

interest rate and currency swaps. These are usually known as "plain vanilla"
deals because the structures of these swaps are simple and more or less similar,
except for the contract details. These constitute a large part of derivatives
trading. However, a swap in its most general form is a security that involves
the exchange of cash flows according to a formula that depends on the value
of one or more underlying variables. There is therefore no limit to the number
of different types of swaps that can be invented. In this chapter, we would give
you a taste of some "real life" swap structures which you may come across in
the future as these become more and more common.
SOME DIFFERENT KINDS OF INTEREST RATE SWAPS
In many occasions, an institution enters into a swap transaction with a bank

in order to hedge its interest rate exposures. A plain vanilla swap involves
the exchange between payments based on a floating rate and a fixed rate.
However, depending on the nature of the exposures, an institution may
enter into a basis swap with a bank, for which the payments are based on
two floating rate references. For example, bank A has a mortgage portfolio
which receives floating rate payments based on the prime rate, and the
portfolio is funded with 3-month deposits, the deposit rate being based on
HIBOR. Assume that bank A expects the spread between HIBOR and prime
will narrow quite substantially in the future (at present it is, say, 3,5%). In
order to lock in this margin, bank A may enter into a swap transaction with
bank B, for which
prime rate
HIBOR+3.2%
' This chapter was written by Mr Chau Ka-hk.
Different
Types of Swaps
The payments are exchanged every three months, for a term of 5 years. By
this deal, even if the spread between HIBOR and prime narrows in the
future, bank A is certain to gain 3.2% for each payment received provided
that no counterparty defaults.
Why should bank A only receive 3.2% instead of 3.5% on top of HIBOR for
each payment? In order to price any swap, the important principle is that
at the inception of the deal, it should be fair to both parties, otherwise no
one would enter into the contract with you. If the future spread between
prime and HIBOR is forecast to be reduced, then a fixed margin has to be
calculated today based on the present information so that the net present
values of all cash flows would be zero at inception.
Basis swaps could involve many different kinds of reference rates for the
floating payments, the commonly used references are 3-month LIBOR, 6month LIBOR, prime rate etc. Another special kind of swap which is worth
mentioning is the Constant Maturity Swap (CMS) or Constant Maturity
Treasury swap (CMT swap). These swaps, which are very common in the
US, typically use a swap rate or T-bill rate as one of the floating references
(for example, a swap which exchanges between 5-year swap rate and 6month LIBOR).
Pricing these swaps (i.e. to calculate the fixed margin
required) is difficult and advanced techniques are required.

In the cases mentioned above, the notional principal remains constant
throughout the life of the swap. However, sometimes the bank may want
to use a simple swap to hedge the exposure of a loan with an amortisation
schedule.
This leads to another important type of swaps known as
amortising swaps. The principal reduces according to a fixed schedule

decided at inception. An example of this is:
fixed @ 6%
6-month LIBOR
Payments are made every 6 months, for a total period of 4 years. The
reference principal amounts are:
Year I
$10 million
Year 3
$ 5 million
Year 2
$ 8 million
Year 4
$ 3 million
B3
The pricing of this swap (i.e. to calculate the required fixed rate using
today's market rates) is not difficult. Effectively this is equivalent to a series
of swaps added together. The first one is a 4-year swap with notional
principal of $10 million. The second one is a 3-year swap starting in one
year's time (i.e. a forward starting swap, another common variation of the
plain vanilla type), with a notional principal of $2 million in the opposite
direction. The third one is a 2-year swap starting in two years' time with
a notional principal of $3 million in the opposite direction. The last one is
a one-year swap starting in three years' time, with a notional principal of $2
million in the opposite direction.
A closely related type is the index amortising swap (IAS). Instead of
having a fixed amortising schedule as in the above example, the schedule
depends on an on-going reference rate (or index), and the manner in which
this rate changes in the course of time. For example, the schedule can be:
end of Year I
If 6-month LIBOR > 7%, principal is reduced by 10%
end of Year 2
If 6-month LIBOR > 7.5%, principal is reduced by 10%
end of Year 3
If 6-month LIBOR > 8%, principal is reduced by 20%
The principal amount at each payment date depends on how the 6-month
LIBOR has moved. Assume an initial principal of $10 million, the amount
at each payment date for the following two scenarios will be:
a) LIBOR at end of:
Year I: 6%, Year 2: 8%, Year 3: 8.5%.
Principal amount at:
Years I and 2: $10 million, Year 3: $9 million, Year 4: $7.2 million.
b) LIBOR at end of:
Year I: 7.5%, Year 2: 8%, Year 3: 7.5%.
Principal amount at:
Year I: $10 million, Year 2: $9 million, Years 3 and 4: $8.1 million.
Contrary to simple amortising swaps, the pricing of IAS is difficult because
a full model of the yield curve has to be used to forecast the behaviour of
the reference rate. When this type of swap was introduced in the late
eighties, huge margins were charged.
Subsequently the margins became
tighter as more and more people traded these instruments. However, some
people began to realise that the original pricing method was incorrect. Even
today we can see many banks use a wrong model in pricing these swaps.
Another variation of the swap family is the differential swap (also commonly
known as diff swap or quanto swap). This product was first developed in
the early nineties in order to suit the needs of customers who had strong
views on the spread between interest rates in different countries.
For example, the treasurer of company A, a US based company, gets today's
market data for US and Japan's yield curves. He thinks that due to the
strong growth in the US economy relative to Japan's, the US interest rates
are likely to rise faster than what the market suggests now, i.e. the spread
between US interest rates and Japan interest rates would widen even further
than today's prediction. A simple strategy is for company A to enter into
a cross currency swap with Bank B:
@ 6~mth LIBOR
US$ @ 6-rnth LIBOR
With the exchange of principals at the start and end dates, this constitutes
a typical cross currency swap (refer to Chapter 5). However, the problem
with this kind of swap is that the amount paid in Yen is subject to foreign
exchange risk.
It is quite likely that even if Japanese rates increase only
slightly, Yen could suddenly become much stronger, and the benefit from
the increase in US LIBOR would be offset by the appreciation of Yen which
makes the payments more valuable from a US company's point of view.
Ever so eager to capture new markets, the "rocket scientists" in investment
banks came up with an unnatural product. Instead of paying Japanese LIBOR
in Yen, both payments would be made in US dollars, i.e.
US$ @ 6-mth Japanese LIBOR + margin

"*
US$ @ 6-mth LIBOR
Since all the payments would now be made in US dollars,
company A
would not be exposed to foreign exchange risk anymore, and the product
fully captures its view. In a sense, the Japanese LIBOR only acts as a kind
of reference rate. Again, the difficulty for this kind of swap is to calculate
the fair value of the fixed margin at the inception of the swap. Fat margins
were charged by investment banks initially, with the margins coming down
gradually in recent years.
TAILOR-HADE STRUCTURES
So far we have only introduced swaps where coupons are exchanged based
on some reference rates. Features of the other big family of derivatives,
options, could be added to plain swaps to create some new type of products.
The simplest one is the option on a swap, or swaption. A typical deal is:
in one year's time, the buyer has the right to enter into a plain vanilla 3-year
swap, where he pays fixed at 6% and receives floating LIBOR every six
months. There is a very active over-the-counter (OTC) market in trading
these instruments, with different maturities of the option (one year in the
above example) and different maturities of the underlying swaps (3-year above).
As with other types of options, a premium has to be paid upfront to purchase
the right. This is different from typical swap structures for which no
counterparty has to pay any upfront fees because the deal should be fair to
both parties at inception.
Another common type of OTC swaps with option features is the extendible
and puttable swaps. These instruments allow one counterparty the right
to extend or cancel the swap at the end of a specified period. For example,
an extendible swap can be:
fixed @ 5.5%
*
6-mth LIBOR
in the first 2 years. After 2 years, company A has the right to extend the
swap for a further year. If it does not exercise the right, the swap terminates
at year 2.
B0|
Effectively this is just a 2-year swap plus a 2-year option on a I -year swap.
For this kind of deal, the premium is usually included in the fixed rate. In
the example above, the market 2-year swap rate is probably lower than
5.5% (say 5.2%). Company A pays 0.3% above the market rate for the four
payments in the first 2 years to compensate for the option premium.
Finally, a swap deal can have a high degree of leverage. Here we use an
example similar to the diff swap example above. Germany's and France's
interest rates are usually closely linked together, and the spread between
the rates are quite constant. However, if customer A thinks that the spread
would widen with France's rates higher than that of Germany's, a swap deal
which could capture this view is:
fixed @ 10%
(France 6-mth LIBOR - Germany 6-mth LIBOR) x 20
This is a highly leveraged deal because the payments are very sensitive to
even small movements in the two yield curves. For example, if at the first
settlement date, France LIBOR is 4% and Germany LIBOR is 3.5%, then
the payments are equal ((4 - 3.5) x 20 = 10%). However, if at the next
settlement date the LIBORs are 4.2% and 3.3% respectively, company A
would receive (4.2 - 3.3) x 20 = 18% while paying 10%, and a net 8% is
earned. For a big notional amount (say $20 million) this already represents
a profit of $0.8 million (for six months). However, one could as well lose
as much. You may think that these deals are just like gambling, but it is not
uncommon to find trades like these.
Armed with the different types of swaps and options features introduced
above, a bank can tailor-make almost anything according to the customers'
needs.
In many structured deals,
more than two counterparties are
involved, which means that two or more simultaneous swaps are entered.
Usually the more exotic the instrument becomes, the higher the risk it
bears. One of Proctor & Gamble's deals with Bankers Trust, which ended
up in a lawsuit, is of the highly leveraged kind. This probably gives the word
"derivatives" a bad name.
DURATION
What is duration? Duration is a measure of the average life of a security.
More specifically, it is the weighted average term-to-maturity of the security's
cash flows. Mathematically, it is:
_
ti x PVCFi + ti x PVCFi + ta x PVCF3 + .... + tn x PVCFt
Duration =
k x PVTCF
where
PVCFt = the present value of the cash flow in period t discounted at the yield-to-maturity
PVTCF = the total present value of the cash flow of the security determined by the
yield-to-maturity, or simply the price of the security
k
= number of payments per year
The following is an example of duration1:

Coupon rate
Term
Yield-to-maturity
Price
Period (t)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Total
Cash flow
$4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
104.0
= 8.00%
= 5 years (semi-annual interest payment)
= 8.00%
=100
PVCF
3.8462
3.6982
3.5560
3.4192
3.2877
3.1613
3.0397
2.9228
2.8103
70.2586
100.0000
t x PVCFt
3.8462
7.3964
10.6680
13.6769
16.4385
18.9675
21.2777
23.3821
25.293 1
702.5867
843.533 1
Macaulay's duration = 843.53317(2x100) = 4.2177

' This example is adapted from "Price Volatility Characteristics of fixed Income Securities" by Frank J Fabozzi, Mark
Pitts and Ravi Dottotreyo.
This measure of duration is referred to as Macaulay's duration, which is

named after Frederick Macaulay, who first computed it in 1 938 in his article,
"Some Theoretical Problems Suggested by the Movement of Interest Rates,
Bond Yields, and Stock in the US since 1856".
Duration is a single number that is measured in units of time, e.g. months
or years. For securities that make only one payment at maturity, such as
zero coupon bonds, duration equals term-to-maturity.
USE OF DURATION
Duration is a very useful measure. First, it converts a very complex cash

flow structure into a single number that represents the rate sensitivity of
the financial instrument. Second, it can be used in a formula to calculate
the change in the security's market value that occurs as a result of a change
in market rate. Third, it can also be used to measure the overall rate
sensitivity of a portfolio of instruments or the entire asset liability structure.
The relationship between Macaulay's duration and security price volatility is:
Percentage
_|
change in price = - x Macaulay's duration x yield change x 100 (I)
(I + yield/k)
For easy calculation, academics and market practitioners usually combine
the first two expressions on the right-hand side into one term and call it
"modified duration":
,.* , ,
.
Macaulay's duration
Modified duration = / .
(I + yield/k)
,x
(2)
v
'
The relationship can then be expressed as follows:

Percentage change in price = - modified duration x yield change x 100 (3)
To illustrate this relationship, consider a change in yield (change in market
rate) from 8.00 percent to 9.00 percent for the bond described earlier:
Modified duration = -~~~
4.0555
(4)
Change in price = -4.0555 x (+0.01) x 100 = -4.0555 percent
(5)
In other words, when the interest rate increases from 8.00 percent to 9.00
percent, the bond originally sold for 100,
is now priced at 95.9445, a
decrease of 4.0555 percent.

Equation (3) is quite accurate for small changes in yields,
but is only an
approximation for large changes in yields. This will be discussed later in this
chapter.
From the above example and the previous illustration, we can see how
duration applies to bond pricing analysis. (We constrain our discussion to
option-free securities.)
First, we see from the illustration that we have converted a 5-year bond
with 10 cash flows into a single number - a modified duration of 4.0555.
What does it mean? It means that if the interest rate increases by, say one
percent, the price of the security decreases by 4.0555 percent; or if the
interest rate decreases by one percent, the price of the security increases
by 4.0555 percent. Therefore, this modified duration of 4.0555 represents
the interest rate sensitivity of this 5-year bond.
Second, as we can see in equations (3) and (5), the percentage change in
bond price due to a change in interest rate can be easily calculated.
Third, by using the duration concept, we can perform some forms of asset/
liability management. We can match the durations between assets and
liabilities portfolios to create a "duration-matched portfolio". Or we can
construct an "immunised portfolio" that provides assured returns over a
target holding period.
In addition, because modified duration is the percentage change in the price
of a security given a change in yields, and a change in yields is a measure
of the change in the bond market, modified duration actually plays a similar
role of measuring market risk for bonds that beta plays for stocks.
Although the duration concept is simple and easy to apply in bond pricing
analysis, it also has its shortcomings. As we mentioned earlier, duration is

quite accurate in calculating changes in price for small changes in yields. For
large changes in yields, duration only provides an approximation, and we
have to rely on the concept of convexity for more accurate estimations.
CONVEXITY
The true relationship between a change in price and a change in interest
rate for option-free securities is not linear. The following graph demonstrates
this relationship:
Error not measured by duration
Price
Actual price
A'
Error not measured

by duration
B' Tangent line
representing duration
Yi
2 Y Y3
Yield
Y4
The actual price of the security is the curve AA', and the straight line BB'
which is tangent to the AA' curve represents the duration of the security.
Therefore, as the graph shows, the straight line approximation creates
errors that grow with the magnitude of the interest rate changes. For small
changes in yield, e.g. from Y to Ys or Ys, duration does a good job in
estimating the actual price. But for larger changes, e.g. from Y to Yi or Y,
duration becomes less accurate and the errors become larger. Convexity
is what we use to correct this problem.
Mathematically, modified duration is the first derivative of bond price while

convexity is the second derivative. Convexity measures the rate of change
of duration:
C
XJt
t[ X
(ll+ ' ) X PVCF' + t2 X (t2 + I ) X PVCF2 +.......+ tn X (tn + i ) X PVCFt
0nV6XI y
( I + yield/k)2 x (k2 x PVTCF)
* '
The convexity of the security in our previous illustration is 20.1886 (following

the calculation format illustrated on page 41.)
The price change that is due to the curvature is shown in the following
formula:
Percentage change in price due to convexity =
1/2 x convexity x (yield change)2 x 100
(7)
Now we can put things together. For a 100 basis point change in yield from
8.00 percent to 7.00 percent, the true theoretical price, taking into
consideration both duration and convexity, is:
Percentage change in price due to duration
= -4.0555 x (-0.01) x 100 = 4.0555%
Percentage change in price due to convexity
= 1/2 x 20.1886 x (-0.0 1) (-0.0 1) x 100

= 0.1009%
Total percentage change in price
= 4.0555% + 0.1009%
= 4.1564%
As you can see, when the interest rate decreases, the convexity actually
accelerates the price appreciation.
Further, the change in price due to
convexity is largely determined by the change in interest rate. If the yield

change is small, the square of yield change is negligible. If the yield change
is large, this term can be significant and thus affects the outcome of equation
(7).
Similarly, the true theoretical price change if the interest rate increases from
8.00 percent to 9.00 percent can be calculated as follows:
Percentage change in price due to duration
= -4.0555 x (+0.01) x 100

= -4.0555%
Percentage change in price due to convexity = l/2x20.I886x(+O.OI)(+O.OI)x 100

= 0.1009%
Total percentage change in price
= -4.0555% + 0.1009%
= -3.9546%
When rate increases, the convexity actually decelerates the price

depreciation. As shown on the graph on page 44, the tangent line lies
below the theoretical price line. This implies that duration always
underestimates the true security price.
All we are doing here is to figure out what the true theoretical prices are.
In reality, observed market prices may be different from the theoretical
prices because of bid-ask spread, demand and supply, market liquidity,
market sentiment, etc. Asset pricing is more an art than an exact science
and all mathematical models are just tools to facilitate the pricing analysis.
I had once tried to confirm the market value of a multi-billion dollar, illiquid
and below-investment-grade bond (or junk bond) portfolio in order to
determine the viability of the institution who held these bonds. A worldfamous junk bond consultant group was called in to do the evaluation. After
days of hard work, the consultants delivered their final analysis. The market
values of most of these bonds given by the consultants ranged between 55
and 85 percent of par. The consultants said that if everything (including the
economy, market sentiment of the company, market sentiment of junk
bonds, interest rates, management's ability, etc.) went well, the price could
be 85, and if everything did not go well, the price could be 55. In other
words, the user of the analysis had to make a lot of subjective assumptions
in order to come to a definitive conclusion.
t
Duration and convexity are very useful in bond pricing analysis. They are
also useful tools in trading and derivatives activities. Traders often use
something called price value basis point (PVBP) to measure the sensitivity
of risk of their positions. PVBP uses the duration concept to measure the
change in price of a security if rates move one basis point. This is a very
useful tool for traders to measure their position sensitivity. However, the
shortcoming of this measure (and all other duration measures) is that it
assumes a parallel shift of the yield curve which usually does not happen in
the real world. Therefore, PVBP is more useful for traders who trade shortterm instruments.
Dr Sam Srinivasulu of Michigan University has drawn an excellent analogy
regarding duration, convexity, delta and gamma.
He said, "duration (or
delta) is the speed, and convexity (or gamma) is the acceleration."
It is
amazing to see how those bright people connect science and finance together.
So we should not be surprised to see that more and more rocket scientists
are now invading our finance territories.
8
OF
Options are generally perceived by many of us as quite complicated and

difficult to understand. Justifiably so when we hear options traders talking
about delta, gamma, vega, and other Greeks. However, every complicated
thing is built on something simple and options are not different. Complex
options transactions are built on some simple forms of options. If you
understand the fundamentals, with a little extra effort, you will understand
many complex forms of options.
A SIMPLE FORM OF OPTION
For example, I want to buy a house. I go shopping around to look for my

dream home. Suppose I find one which satisfies all my requirements. However,
I consider the asking price of $10 million a little bit too high. But the seller
refuses to lower the price. What shall I do? I can do one of the following:
( 1 ) 1 can stop shopping around and settle for this house which I consider
a little bit over-priced. (2) I can continue to shop around until I find my
dream house which is properly priced. However, I have to consider the
possibility that I may never find another house which is better than this one.
And by the time 1 decide to come back to buy this house, it may not be
available or the price may be even higher. (3) I can ask the seller to grant
me an option that the seller will hold the property for me at the same
asking price for one month. (Although this practice is not popular in Hong
Kong, contracts of leasing with an option to buy are not uncommon in the
US.) I then can continue to shop around and hopefully find a better one
in a month's time. The seller says, "fine, but you have to pay me a fee for
my generosity for allowing you a month of time to commit yourself to
purchase the property" This is a simple form of call option. Whilst in this
example, a house is not a homogeneous product and I may not be able to
find an exact replacement, most financial products are homogeneous, liquid
and finding a replacement is not a problem.
SOME COHMON TERMS OF OPTIONS

Financial options such as stock options are quite similar to this simple form
of option. Here are some financial jargons of options:
A call option gives the option buyer the right but not the obligation to
buy a financial instrument or a commodity at a specific price on or
before a particular date in the future. This specific price is usually called
the exercise price or strike price.
A put option gives the option buyer the right but not the obligation to
sell a financial instrument or a commodity at a specific price on or
before a particular date in the future.
When you buy an option (or any financial instruments or commodities),
you are an option holder and you are said to have a long position of the
option.
The seller or the writer of an option is said to have a short position of
the option.
An American option allows the option holder to exercise the option on
or before the option expiration date.
A European option allows the option holder to exercise the option only
on the expiration date.
An at-the-money option is an option whose exercise price is the same
as the market price.
An in-the-money option is an option whose exercise price is lower than
the market price for call options and higher than the market price for
put options.
An out-of-the-money option is an option whose exercise price is higher
than the market price for call options and lower than the market price
for put options.
OPTION'S PAYOFF PATTERN
What about an option writer's right and obligation? An option writer is

obliged to sell (in the case of a call option) the financial instrument or the
commodity to the option holder at a specified price on or before a particular
date if the option holder chooses to exercise the option. In return, the option
writer receives a premium for selling the option. In the earlier example, the
seller grants me a right to purchase the property at $10 million within a
month in exchange for an option fee. If the property price raises to $ 1 1
million, he is still obliged to sell the property to me at $10 million. If the
property price drops to $9 million, I will not exercise my option right to
purchase the property at $10 million because I can buy it for $9 million (here
we assume that a house is a homogeneous product that I can easily find a
replacement). I will just simply let the option run out. The option writer will
simply pocket the option fee. From here we can see one thing: the option
writer's profit is fixed (the option fee he received) but his financial risk is
unlimited. (If the property value goes up to $15 million or $20 million, he
stirrRas to sell it to me at $10 million. Here we focus only on the option
contract.) This is what we call the asymmetric payoff pattern of options.
My financial situation as a call option holder is just the opposite of the
option writer. My total financial obligation is the amount of the option fee.
My upside potential can be unlimited if the real estate market skyrockets in
one month. If the market price of the subject house rises to $12 million,
I can still buy it at $10 million because I am holding a legitimate option
contract. My downside risk is limited - the option fee I have paid. But my
upside potential is unlimited. Therefore, the payoff pattern of an option
holder is also asymmetric,
OPTION'S PREMIUM
How much fee should I pay him? I do not want to pay him too much as
I understand that this is not a good faith deposit; it is an option fee and I
will not see this money again after I have paid him. The seller also wants
to be properly compensated because he bears a financial risk by granting me
this option.
BU
The option fee (also called option premium or value of the option) is
determined by the following factors:
1. The difference between the market price and the exercise price
If the option contract between me and the property seller allows me to
buy the property at several different sales prices, say, $ 10 million, $ 10.2
million, $10.4 million, etc., how much should the option premium be? It
is obvious that for call (put) options, the higher the sales price, the
lower (higher) the option fee I would want to pay. These different levels
of sales price in options are called exercise price or strike price. There
is one important concept which should be addressed here: intrinsic
value. For a stock call option, the intrinsic value equals the difference
between the market price and the strike price if the market price is
higher than the strike price; it is zero otherwise. For our real estate
example, if the real estate market goes up and the market price of my
dream house is now $10.8 million and I hold an option to purchase at
an exercise price of $10 million, the intrinsic value of the option is
$800,000. Using jargons, an option is more expensive when it is more
in-the-money.
2. The volatility of the price level
The premium is higher if the real estate prices in Hong Kong fluctuate
a lot. For example, if the rate of volatility of real estate price is 10
percent per month in Hong Kong based on some historical data, it is
probable (here we are talking about a 66 percent chance or one standard
deviation) that the price of my dream house may fluctuate anywhere
between $9 million and $1 I million. The option writer may suffer a $1
million financial loss if the price of the house does go up to $1 I million
in one month (here we focus only on the option contract). If the rate
of volatility of real estate price in Hong Kong is 30 percent per month,
it is probable that the price of my dream house may range from $7
million to $13 million. In this case, it is possible for him to lose $3
million instead of $1 million. Obviously, he will ask for a higher option
fee to compensate for the higher potential risk,
Volatility is the most important factor in option pricing.
Unlike other
factors, the actual volatility is not known (or cannot be observed) at the
time of the option transaction. In our real estate option example, the
10 percent or 30 percent volatility level is based on historical data. It
is not the actual volatility, because the actual volatility is not observable
at the time of the option transaction. In option language, vega is the
amount of change of an option price with one-percent change in the
volatility of the underlying.
3. The option time period
This is also obvious. The longer the option time period, the higher the
option premium (for both calls and puts). This is what we call time value
of an option. This factor is on the side of option writers. If all things remain
constant, the time value of the option decreases every day and eventually
decreases to zero at maturity. For at-the-money or out-of-the-money options,
because the intrinsic value is zero, the option becomes worthless at maturity.
For in-the-money options, because there is some intrinsic value left at
maturity, the option holders can still exercise the option to purchase the
underlying asset at a price better than the market price. Therefore, it is still
worth something. An option value changes due to changes in time to
expiration. This is called theta and is always referred to as time decay.
4. The level of interest rates
The higher the interest rate, the higher the call option premium. This is not
so obvious and an example is needed to illustrate this point. If I want to
buy a property or a financial asset and I am given the chance of delaying the
payment, I will, as I consider myself a rational investor, put the money in a
bank to earn some interest in this period. This will partially offset my
premium expense and I am willing to pay a higher premium. Therefore, for
call (put) options, the higher the interest rate the bank pays me on my
deposit, the higher (lower) the option premium I am willing to pay. Rho is
the amount of change in an option value due to changes in interest rates.
In pricing financial options, market participants usually use the real interest
rate or the risk-free interest rate.
Three of these four factors (actually there are five elements involved - the
difference between the market price and the exercise price includes two
elements) are known at the time of the option transaction: risk-free interest
rate, exercise price and the level of the asset price, and the option time
period. The volatility, however, has to be estimated, or based on some
historical data.
Market participants usually use implied volatility to price
options. (Implied volatility is the volatility level for the underlying that the
option price implies. It is a reverse process because the option price is
observable but the volatility is not.)
Assuming that the seller and I have
agreed on all of these five factors, the option premium can be calculated by
using an option formula, such as the Black-Scholes formula. This process is
just a matter of mathematics. We will introduce the Black-Scholes formula
in the next chapter.
The following table summarises the factors of option pricing we just discussed:
Premium of
Call
Put
Higher strike price
lower
higher
Higher volatility
higher
higher
Longer option time period
higher
higher
Higher risk-free interest rate
higher
lower
For stock options, there is one more factor which affects the value of an
option - dividend. Right after a company pays its stock dividend, its share
price usually drops by an amount reflecting the dividend paid adjusting for
the tax effect (stock price may go down somewhat less than the dividend
amount because of the tax effect). Therefore, dividends can be interpreted
as the reduction in share prices and thus reduce the value of calls and
increase the value of puts.
f
AND
Trading options becomes more popular these days. Options traders are
sometimes perceived to be some of the smartest traders in dealing rooms
because they always deal with some complex pricing models and talk in
Greek - at least some letters of Greek.
In this chapter, we will discuss two very important concepts about options
and the famous Black-Scholes formula, and hopefully uncover some of the
mystique about options.
THE
PAYOFF PATTERN OF OPTIONS
In the previous chapter, we discussed that options have an asymmetric

payoff pattern - the buyer of an option pays a premium to obtain the right
to purchase (for a call option) or sell (for a put option) an asset at a specific
price (the exercise or the strike price) within a specific time period. His
cost (the premium he has paid) is fixed; however, his potential benefit can
be unlimited. The seller of an option receives a premium to commit an
obligation to allow the buyer of the option to purchase or sell an asset at
a specific price within a specific time period. The following graphs illustrate
the payoff pattern of a call option at maturity:
Call Option
Writer
Profit
Profit
Payoff
As shown in the above graph, the down-side risk for writing options is
potentially unlimited. Because writing options is a high risk operation for
a bank, the management should stipulate in the policy document the option
trading strategies such as whether traders are allowed to write naked
options, i.e. writing options without holding the underlying asset, or whether
traders are required to hedge (fully or partially) the positions. If writing
options is allowed, how the management controls this risk should be clearly
written down in the policy statement.
THE DELTA OF AN OPTION
The payoff line of the above graph for the option buyer kinks at $100 and
then slopes upward. The slope of this line can be anywhere from zero to
one for call options (-1 to 0 for put options). How does the slope of the
payoff line relate to options trading? An important point to remember is:
a call option (at a specific strike price) with a slope of 0.5 means that when
the price of the underlying increases by $ I, the price of the option increases
by $0.5. The slope of the payoff line is also called the hedge ratio. Market
participants commonly call the hedge ratio the option's delta.
If the option writer does not want to take the potentially unlimited down-
side risk, he can fully hedge his positions.
For every at-the-money call
option written, he needs to purchase 0.5 share of the underlying stock if the
delta is 0.5. For example, you have written 10 at-the-money options, the
stock price is currently at $100 and the hedge ratio or the delta is 0.5. You
need 5 shares of stock to fully hedge the position. This is because if the
stock price increases by $1.00, the value of the 10 options increases by $0.5
x 10 options = $5.00. The value of the 5 shares of stock also increases by
$101 x 5 - $100 x 5 = $5.00.
What if the delta is 0.7?
If the delta increases from 0.5 to 0.7, you need 2 more shares of stock to
fully hedge your position. This is because if the stock price increases by
$1.00, the value of the 10 options increases by $0.7 x 10 options = $7.00.
You need to hold 7 shares of stock to offset the loss of $7.00 when the
option holder exercises the option ($101 x 7 - $ I O O x 7 = $7.00).
THE BLACK-SCHOLES FORMULA

Here is the famous Black-Scholes formula.
For a European call option,
Co = So N(di) - Xe"rt N(di)
and
di = [ln(So/X) + (r> a2/2)T] / [aTI/2]

dz = di - aT I / 2
where
Co
= current option value
So
= current stock price
= strike price
= risk-free interest rate (continuous compounding)
= time to maturity of the option in years
o>
= standard deviation (or volatility)
In
= natural logarithm function
= 2.71828
N(d) = cumulative normal distribution function

It took Drs Black and Scholes, and Dr Merton many years to derive this
famous option-pricing formula in the early 70s. During the last some twenty
years, academics and practitioners put many variations, enhancements and
refinements to the basic Black-Scholes formula and the formula becomes
the necessary tool for options traders.
If we ignore the N(d) terms in the formula, we have Co = So - Xe"rt. We
know So is the current stock price and X is the strike price and the term
Xe"rt is just the present value of X with continuous compounding (the term
can be expressed as the present value of X if this makes you a little easier
to understand it). This simplified formula is more straightforward than the
original one. It says that the value of a call option is the current stock price
minus the present value of the strike price. Another way to understand this
is to recall the definition of intrinsic value of a call option which is the
difference between the market price and the exercise price if the market
price is higher than the strike price, or zero otherwise. Our simplified
Black-Scholes formula simply modifies the strike price to the present value
of the strike price by adding the elements of time and risk-free interest rate.
We can now put the N(d) terms back to the formula without changing the
value of it. This can be achieved only if the N(d) terms are both equal to
one. This makes sense if we interpret the term N(d) as the probability of
the option expiring in-the-money. If we are absolutely positive that the
option will expire in-the-money, the probability, or the term N(d) will be
equal to one. (Theoretically it can only be very close to one because of the
time value. As long as there is time left, anything can happen to security
prices. Therefore, technically, N(d) can never be 0 or I until the option
expires.) On the other hand, if there is absolutely no chance for the option
to be exercised, the N(d) terms will be equal to zero. In other words, the
N(d) term ranges from zero to one. This also makes statistical sense. If
you play around with the numbers, you will find that the values of N(d)
increase when the stock price increases. The full explanation of the N(d)
terms needs more advanced mathematics and statistics and is out of the
scope of this book.
With the following data, the at-the-money call option price can be calculatedStock price (non-dividend paying): $100
Time to maturity: 3 months
Risk-free interest rate for 3 months: 6 percent per annum
Volatility: 10 percent
N(d)
0.16
0.18
0.20
0.22
0.24
0.26
0.28
0.30
0.32
0.34
0.36
0.5636
0.5714
0.5793
0.5871
0.5948
0.6026
0.6103
0.6179
0.6255
0.6331
0.6406
6, /
EQj
di = [ln(IOO/IOO) + (0.06 + O.P/2) x 0.25] / (0.! x 0.25I/2)

= 0.3260 or 0.33; N(0.33) = 0.6293
di = 0.3260 - O.I x 0.25l/2
= 0.2760 or 0.28; N(0.28) = 0.6103
Co = 100 x 0.6293 - (100 x e-06x025) x 0.6103
= 62.93 - 60.12 = $2.81
If the volatility is 15 percent instead of 10 percent, with other factors
unchanged, the value of the option will be higher at $3.96.
The Black-Scholes formula is not perfect. It makes some assumptions. For
example, it assumes that the underlying stock does not pay dividends. And
it values American options not so accurately because of the early exercise
cause. However, it is considered an easy-to-get approximation of the price
of an option.
Applying the Black-Scholes formula is much easier than understanding the
concepts behind it From the above equations, we can first solve for di and
d2, and then Co. All you have to do is to plug all the necessary numbers
into the equations. With the technology nowadays, you can get the option
value in a second using the Black-Scholes formula.
For data inputs, we can obtain the stock price, strike price, risk-free interest
rate, and time to maturity of the option very easily. But how do we get
the standard deviation of a stock?
IMPLIED VOLATILITY
The standard deviation (or the volatility) of a stock cannot be readily observed
like the other inputs. Market practitioners usually use the historical data,
scenario analysis or prices of other options to measure a stock's standard
deviation. Because there is no uniform way to derive a stock's volatility, the
true price of the option and the option price calculated using the BlackScholes formula can be different.
In practice, traders usually ask what the right volatility is in order for the
option price to be consistent with the Black-Scholes formula. This is the
so-called implied volatility. It looks like a chicken-and-egg problem. But this
is what market practitioners are practising. Options traders usually judge
whether the actual volatility exceeds the implied volatility. If he thinks that
the actual volatility exceeds the implied volatility, he will buy options. This
is because the higher the actual volatility, the higher the option value.
10
is
In the previous chapter, we discussed the concept of delta and implied
volatility. We also introduced the Black-Scholes formula. In this chapter, we
will use these concepts to explain two other option trading issues - (I)
delta hedging and (2) trading options being equivalent to trading volatility.
We will continue to discuss why we said in our last chapter that the policy
of the institution should stipulate the option trading strategy and establish
option trading limits.
People usually have a wrong conception of what the real meaning of options
trading is. Simply buying an option and looking for the increase of the
option price or selling an option for premium income is not really trading
options. Some people buy call (put) options when they are bullish (bearish)
on the stock; or sell options (both call or put) when they think the price
of the stock will not reach the level of the strike price so that they can
pocket the premium. All of these are strategies of people using options as
a tool to participate Jnjh^tockjriarket. The benefit of these strategies is
the leverage - instead of investing the full amount to purchase the underlying
stock, They can invest a fraction of it and still get the similar result.
Nevertheless, the risk of using such strategies is also higher than that of
trading the underlying stock.
Professional options traders consider these investment actions merely trading
the underlying security and do not call them options trading. Tradfnjg options
is trading v^ktility. We have touched the volatility issue in the last chapter.
A simple diagram can reinforce our understanding of option volatility.
Stock A
100
50
Stock B
150
80
100
120
The above graphs illustrate the volatility profile of Stocks A and B. (For
simplicity reason, we assume a normal distribution for stock prices here
rather than a more realistic lognormal distribution). Which option has a
higher value? The answer is Stock A. This is because it has higher uncertainty
or volatility.
During a specific period of time, say one year, the price of
Stock A has more potential to reach $150, as compared to Stock B which

has a limited potential to reach $150, based on historical data. Holding an
option is different from holding a stock, because there is no down-side risk.
Therefore,
the option (either call or put) of stock A is worth more.
Volatility measures one standard deviation of the stock price distribution

within a specific time period. A 20 percent volatility means that the security
price will (about 68% probability) be traded plus/minus 20 percent of the
current price within one year. In other words, Stock A has a volatility of
50 percent and Stock B has a volatility of 20 percent. (This is explained in
a simplified manner. In order to calculate the future price distribution, we
have to know the expected return of the stock. In reality, stock prices are
not normally distributed.)
HOW
CAN AN OPTION TRADER MAKE MONEY BY TRADING VOLATILITY?
A professional option trader buys (or writes) an option contract when he

thinks that the implied volatility will increase (decrease) before the option
expires. He is said to hold a long (short, if he writes) position on the
volatility of the option. This is analogous to an equity trader who buys a
stock when he thinks that the stock is under-priced and the price of the
stock will go up in the near future. But before an option trader can make
money in option trading, there is one condition - he has to maintain a fully
hedged or delta neutral position. If he does not keep a fully hedged position,
he is trading the underlying, at least some part of it.
Assume that an option trader sells 100 one-year at-the-money put options
of Stock A and does not want to take any risk of the underlying. He can
fully hedge his position under the following scenarios:
(1) The option writer can immediately buy an option contract with exactly
the same terms of the option contract he just sold. He can still make
money by earning a spread. For example, he sells the option contract
to the option buyer for a 5,50 percent premium and buys back a mirror
contract for 5 percent. He will earn the 0.5 percent spread.
Or he can do one of the followings:
(2) If he knows for sure in one year the price of Stock A will be higher than
the strike price of $100, he will do nothing, because he knows that the
option holder will not exercise the option.
(3) If he knows for sure in one year the price of Stock A will be lower than
the strike price of $100, the option holder will exercise his right to sell
100 shares of Stock A to him at $100.
In order to fully hedge his
position, the option writer will sell 100 shares of Stock A at $100 now
to fully hedge this position.
Since at this moment he has no way to know what the price of Stock A will
be in one year, he has to use a little mathematics to determine how much
he should hedge. For at-the-money options (assuming that the stock has
zero growth rate for simplicity reason), there is a 50 percent chance that
the stock price will be lower than the strike price. Therefore, he fully
hedges his position by selling 50 shares of Stock A. Or we can say that there
is a 50 percent probability that the option writer will have to buy 100 shares
of the underlying stock at $100 if the option holder exercises his option.
Therefore, the option writer has to sell 50 shares of the stock in order
to be fully hedged.
From the last chapter, you know that the 50 percent or 0.5 is the option's
delta. We also know that delta is the hedge ratio. In order to fully hedge
an at-the-money calj^put) option written, an option writer needs to purchase
(s^ll) a certain number of shares as determined by delta multiplied by the
number of shares under the contract.
But what if the price of Stock A drops to $90, or increases to $110?

When the stock price of A drops from $100 to $90, the put option is inthe-money and the probability of the option being exercised is higher than
50 percent. Assume that the delta is now 0.7. The option writer has to
hedge 70 percent of his position by selling 70 shares of Stock A. Since he
has already sold 50, he has to sell 20 more.
90 100
When the stock price of A increases from $ 100 to $ 110, the put option is
out-of-the-money and the probability of the option being exercised is less than
50 percent, say at 30 percent, or the delta is now 0.3. At this time, the option
writer has to buy back 20 shares of Stock A in order to remain delta neutral.
(He should sell 30 shares but he has already sold 50.)
100 110
If the stock price of A continues to increase to $120, and assuming that the
delta is now 0.15, the option writer should buy back 15 more shares in order
to remain delta neutral. This is the so-called delta-neutral hedge.
100 110 120
Since stock price does not usually jump from $100 to $110, how often should
the option writer hedge his position?
Should he hedge every time when delta
changes?
In theory, if the option writer remains perfectly hedged at all times and the
actual option volatility is the same as implied volatility, the aggregate hedging
cost equals approximately the amount of the option premium of the mirror
option (here we refer to the option premium in the professional market),
assuming there is no transaction cost. This leaves the option writer with
a 0.5 percent profit for this transaction in our example. He will surely ask
himself, "why do I have to go through all the troubles to hedge? I'd better
just buy a mirror option and earn the 0.5 percent spread."
The key for
this strategy to make more money depends on the option trader's professional
judgement on the volatility. If the volatility indeed decreases from 50 percent
to 20 percent after six months as the option trader expected, he can buy
a mirror option with a premium lower than that he has collected. (Here we
focus only on the volatility factor for easy explanation. In reality, the option
trader has to consider other factors, such as the change of the intrinsic
value of the option, etc.)
Now he has accomplished all the things he is
supposed to do: (I) he remains delta neutral at all times (or at least most
of the time) during this period; (2) he has squared off his option positions;
and (3) he has made a profit - the difference between the amount of
premium he collects and that he pays, plus the 0.5 percent spread.
Besides that, option traders are normally given a certain degree of freedom
for not maintaining a perfectly hedged position. Every time an option trader
decides not to have a perfectly hedged position, he is running an open
position. Management usually controls option traders' freedom by imposing
option trading limits, such as delta and gamma limits. They are usually
expressed in dollar amount. An option trader can make his professional
judgements by holding long or short positions, or by over-hedging or underhedging the positions he holds, as long as he acts within his limits.
How much freedom an option trader should be given is a management
decision. It is determined by a lot of things, such as the institution's risk
tolerance level, market outlook, product nature and characteristics, trader's
expertise and past performance, existing trading systems, projected revenue,
risk management and internal control systems, etc.
The basic mechanism of trading options has been discussed above. It is
obvious that for prudent risk control, management should stipulate the
options trading strategies and establish options trading limits. In the policy
statement, management should clearly answer the following questions: what
are the purposes of trading options? Is it mainly a customer-driven business
or mainly a proprietary trading business? What is the planned revenue
allocation between customer business and proprietary trading business?
Should traders be allowed to buy options simply to participate in the stock
market?
How much freedom should traders have when using the delta-
neutral strategy? What are the delta limits? What are the gross position
limits for both the options and the underlying assets? All these should be
documented in the institution's options trading policy and limits structure.
Without them, it is very questionable how management can adequately
manage, control and monitor the institution's options trading activities.
11
OF AN
In the previous two chapters, we discussed option's delta and volatility

(vega) and their application in options trading. In this chapter, we will talk
about another feature of option - gamma, also a Greek alphabet.
The gamma of a portfolio of options on an underlying asset is the rate of
change of the portfolio's delta with respect to the price of the underlying asset
In other words, gamma is the second derivative with respect to the underlying.
Option
Price
X.
X
Price of the
underlying
Y Yi
Y2
For a small change in the underlying, say from Y to Yi, the option price
changes from X to Xi. In this case, delta does a relatively good job because
the curvature of OO' is small in this price range. However, for a larger
change in the underlying, the curvature of the OO' line becomes larger.
Using delta alone will create a hedging error as the graph indicates. The
magnitude of the error depends on the curvature of OO'. Gamma measures
this curvature. If gamma is large in absolute terms (more curvature), delta

is highly sensitive to the price change of the underlying.
The relation of delta and gamma is similar to that of duration and convexity.
If you go back to Chapter 7, you will find that the above graph and the
graph in that chapter illustrate the same point: the curvature of the actual
price line makes duration and delta an inaccurate measurement tool, and
convexity and gamma can correct this inaccuracy.
In Chapter 9, we say that a call option with a delta of 0.5 means that when
the price of the underlying increases by $l,the price of the option increases
by approximately $0.5. Now, adding the gamma element into the picture, if
the price of the underlying increases by $1, the price of the option with a
delta of 0.5 and a gamma of 0.1 will increase by approximately $0.6 instead
of $0.5.
Option traders usually express gamma in the change of delta per one point
change in the underlying. Also, traders express a delta of LOO as 100 deltas
and a change of 0.1 delta a change of 10 deltas. For example, if a trader holds
10 option contracts with a delta of 0.1, he is said to be holding a position of
100 deltas.
You will quickly realise how important gamma is to a trader's hedge position.
A trader has to increase his hedges in order to stay within his trading limit,
if he has a position with a delta of 0.45 and a gamma of 0.45. Assume he
has 10 such contracts and a risk limit equivalent to the amount of 500
deltas, he may appear within his risk limit (450 deltas) if considering only
the delta.
However, he is in a danger zone of exceeding his limit if the
market moves. If the underlying moves by one point, he will exceed his risk
limit by 400 deltas because he will have a 900 delta position (10 contracts
x (45 + 45) = 900). Thus, it is very important to set a gamma limit
The profile of gamma changes against the underlying depend very much on
the time remaining until expiration of the option. This means that when an
at-the-money option approaches its expiration closer and closer, its gamma
becomes bigger and bigger for every unit change of the underlying.
An article written by John Braddock and Benjamin Krause has an excellent
description about the relation between gamma and the option's remaining
time to expiration:
Suppose there is a basketball game. Team A and Team B are of equal
strength. At the time when the game starts, the score is 0 and 0 and
both team's chance of winning the game is 50 percent. This is analogous
to purchasing an at-the-money call option with a delta of 0.5.
During the game, there are times when Team A is in front by a few
points and it has a higher probability of winning the game. This is
equivalent to the price of the underlying stock goes up and so does the
delta of the call option.
How much should the delta go up? This is the same question as the one
we will ask regarding how big a chance it is for Team A to win the game
at this time when it is leading by a few points.
It all depends on how much time remains in the game if both teams are
still of (approximately) equal strength. If Team A is leading by 3 points
at half-time, its winning chance is surely higher than 50 percent, but
probably not by much, say, 55 percent. However, if Team A is leading by
3 points with only 30 seconds left in the game, its chance of winning is
probably very high, say, 95 percent. Although the margin of the lead for
Team A is the same, the chance of winning is different.
It is the same for options. Assume that for an at-the-money option with
three months to the expiration date, the delta is 0.5 and the gamma is 0.02.
After one day, the price of the underlying changes by one point. At this
time, the delta may change from 0.50 to 0.52 - a relatively small change
because there is plenty of time for the price of the underlying to go either
way. However, if the time is now one day before the expiration date, and
the price of the underlying changes from at-the-money to one point in-themoney, the delta of the option may change from 0.50 to 0.95 because it
surely looks good for the option to be in-the-money before it expires.
Gamma estimates the rate of change.
For options which are far in-the-money (or far out-of-the-money), gamma
probably does not matter much because the delta is already close to I (or
close to zero for far out-of-the-money options). Just like a basketball game,
if one team is leading by 30 points at the half, its chance of winning is very
high. Whether it gains a couple of points or loses a couple of points in the
second half shall not affect the result very much.
12
Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are securities backed by mortgages. MBS

can be privately issued or issued by quasi-government agencies. The most
liquid and active MBS market is in the US, where there are over US$1.2
trillion worth of MBS outstanding (in 1992), and over US$300 billion of new
MBS and mortgage loan pools issued each year.
MORTGAGE PASS-THROUGH SECURITIES

The traditional MBS are "mortgage pass-through" securities in which the
lender bank pools mortgage loans with similar characteristics together,
collects principal and interest payments every month, and passes through
the principal and interest payments less the servicing and other fees to
investors. Investors receive pro rata shares of the resultant cash flows.
Suppose an investor buys a pass-through MBS at par, backed by a pool of
mortgage loans all with 10 percent interest rate fixed for 30 years. (30-year
fixed rate mortgages are very common in the US.) Assume that interest
rates drop by two percent after the purchase. A common misconception is
that the market value of the MBS would go up just like other bonds. This
is not the case for MBS. When rates drop, borrowers tend to refinance
their mortgages. Instead of paying 10 percent mortgages fixed for 30 years,
they can now refinance their loans at 8 percent. This is pretty bad for the
MBS investor. Instead of seeing his investment goes up in value because of
the rate drop, he gets his investment paid off at par. In addition, he has to
reinvest his money at lower rates now. This is the "prepayment risk" of MBS.
On the other hand, if interest rates go up from 10 percent to 12 percent,
borrowers would not rush to refinance their mortgages because they can
enjoy paying lower rates (10 percent versus the market rate of 12 percent)
for the remaining life of their mortgages. The investor, who was expecting to
get some of his money back (the regular amortisations, and normal prepayments
based on an assumed prepayment speed) to invest at a higher rate, is not
getting back as much as he expected. And the original investment horizon
becomes longer now. This is the "extension risk" of MBS.
PREPAYMENT CHARACTERISTICS OF
The most important characteristic of MBS is prepayment. Prepayment is
when borrowers prepay their mortgages before the maturity date. Although
interest rate is the most important factor that influences prepayment pattern,
prepayment always exists no matter how interest rates and other economic
factors change. People tend to prepay their mortgages for various reasons:
moving up to a bigger and better house, or relocating to a different location,
etc. In California, statistics show that people tend to move every 5 to 7
years. For the whole nation, the average life is 7 years for 15-year mortgage
loans and 12 years for 30-year loans. Therefore, when an investor invests
in a 10 percent coupon MBS backed by a pool of 30-year loans, his investment
horizon is not 30 years but more or less 12 years under a normal situation.
The prepayment characteristic is so important that when a collateral mortgage
obligation (CMO), a more complex form of MBS, is priced, the average life
and the yield of the bond are quoted based on an assumed prepayment
speed. There are two common methods for measuring prepayment speed:
Conditional Prepayment Rate (CPR) method and Public Securities Association
(PSA) method. CPR represents the annualised percentage of the outstanding
balance that is prepaid during the period. For example, 6 percent CPR
means that 6 percent of the outstanding balance, net of scheduled
amortisations, will be prepaid each year. PSA, on the other hand, assumes
that unseasoned loans tend to be prepaid at slower rates. The base PSA
(100 percent PSA) assumes that prepayments rise linearly from 0.2 percent
CPR to 6 percent CPR over 30 months from the origination of the mortgage,
and then remain constant at 6 percent CPR. A ISO PSA means that
prepayment speed will rise to 9 percent (1.50 x 6 percent) over 30 months
and then remain at 9 percent.
NEGATIVE CONVEXITY
For MBS, there is something called negative convexity.
In short, it says that
when rates continue to drop, the value of the security decreases rather than
increases.
For most non-callable securities, such as treasury bonds, the price-to-yield
curve is convex with respect to the X axis (the following price-to-yield
graphs are adapted from "The Evolution of Mortgage-backed Securities" by
Jess Lederman):
Price
Non-Callable Bond
Yield
This means that as the yield decreases (moving from right to left in the
above graph), price increases at a faster and faster rate, and as the yield
increases, price decreases at a slower and slower rate. The price-yield curve
is different for MBS. For MBS, there are two components. The first
component is just like other non-callable bonds. The second component is
actually an option transaction - the issuer of the security writes a prepayment
option to the loan borrowers, and passes through the premium to the
investor. This is one of the reasons that pass-through MBS are usually priced
at more than 100 basis points over treasuries. During the life of the mortgage,
a borrower can put the mortgage back to the lender at an advantageous
situation to him, such as when the market mortgage rates are two percent
lower than his existing mortgage rate.
Price
Non-Callable Bond
Prepayment option (opposite effect to MBS holders)

Yield
When the market mortgage rates are higher than the existing mortgage
rates in the loan pool, the value of the borrower's prepayment option is
not worth much (the right-hand side of the graph). Borrowers are unlikely
to refinance their mortgages (or to exercise their options and put the
mortgages back to the lender). But if rates (and hence the yield) continue
to drop (moving from right to left in the above graph), the prepayment
option is changing from out-of-the-money to in-the-money. This is because
when the market mortgage rates are lower than the mortgage rates in the
loan pool (by approximately 2 percent depending on the cost of refinance),
there is an advantage for the borrowers to refinance their mortgages. The
value of the prepayment option increases. The value of the MBS is the
combination of these two values - the long position (positive value) of the
non-callable bond minus the short position (negative value) of the prepayment
option. Therefore, it is difficult to predict the cash flows of a simple passthrough MBS.
Price
Non-Callable Bond
MBS
Prepayment option (opposite effect to MBS holders)

Yield
MULTI-CLASS
In 1983, Freddie Mac introduced multi-class collateralised mortgage
obligations (CMO). A CMO usually has several classes (or tranches). It
divides mortgages into a series of sequentially paying bonds with several
different maturities. For instance, a $100 million CMO can be divided into
many classes, four as in this example:
Principal
Expected Average Life
Class A
$30 million
2 years
Class B
$40 million
5 years
Class C
$25 million
7 years
Class D
$5 million
20 years
Class
(residual class)
Class A is entitled to the first 30 percent of the principal repayment of the

collateral. It means that the first $30 million principal repayment (including the
scheduled amortisations and all prepayments) received on the pool will go to
Class A investors. All other classes will receive interest only. After Class A
is paid off, Class B starts to receive the principal repayment, and so on.
Class A has most of the prepayment risk and not much extension risk. On
the other hand, Classes C and D have most of the extension risk but not
much prepayment risk This helps to solve, to a great extent, the unpredictable
cash flow problem of pass-through MBS. Investors can target certain specific
maturities. This inevitably broadens the investor base. Additionally, unlike
single-class MBS which are priced at a spread of, say 125 basis points over
10-year treasury, multi-class MBS can be priced at different treasury maturities.
These two factors indeed tighten MBS to treasury spreads.
The above example is just the simplest form of multi-class MBS. Others are
quite complex and innovative. Some of the recent developments in MBS
become more mathematical and probably steer the products out of the
normal financial path. For example, for a multi-class MBS with total tranches
of 250, it is impossible to analyse the cash flows of these tranches using
fundamental financial principles. Everything was done mathematically. There
are also the "kitchen-sink securities". They are those latest tranches of MBS
where even the issuer cannot figure out their cash flow patterns because
there are too many uncertainties. They are grouped together and sold at
a deep discount to speculative investors. The value of these securities is
everybody's guess. With no surprise, most of the "kitchen-sink securities"
investors lost big in 1994 when interest rates were rising.
13
What is a hedge? According to the Webster's Dictionary, a hedge is (I) a

fence or boundary formed by a dense row of shrubs or low trees; or (2)
a means of protection or defence as against financial loss.
Hedging can
reduce risk, but it seldom eliminates risk except that the hedging instrument
is exactly the same as the instrument being hedged. Perfect hedges are rare,
as a trader put it, they can only be found in Japanese gardens.
For example, a financial institution has just made a 5-year $50 million loan
to one of its best borrowers. The interest rate on the loan is fixed at 7.0
percent. The Chief Executive is quite concerned about the interest rate risk
of this transaction. He did not want to make this deal because of the
interest rate risk. But he was afraid that he might lose this customer. He
asked the Treasurer to fully hedge the interest rate risk. The Treasurer in
turn gave the assignment to a financial analyst.
There are many ways to hedge this transaction, the young financial analyst
thinks. The simplest way is to enter into a 5-year interest rate swap
exchanging the fixed rate payments of the loan to floating rate.
After
examining the market swap rates, he finds that there is one problem: based
on the current implied forward curve, the bank will pay the counterparty
6.0 percent for five years and receive floating payments based on a 3-month
LIBOR rate adjusted quarterly. The current 3-month LIBOR rate is 5.0
percent. What this means is that at least for the first three months, the
bank will have a negative net interest income on the swap - paying 6.0
percent and receiving 5.0 percent.
He knows that the bank is under
tremendous pressure to improve its earning growth. A negative net interest

income on this swap certainly will not help.
The alternative is to buy an Interest rate cap. But the premium for a longterm cap is very expensive. In addition, 5-year caps are not that liquid.
Another alternative, which the financial analyst thinks is the best, is to enter
into a pay-floating-receive-fixed swap. We call this a reverse swap, because it
reverses a regular pay-fixed-receive-floating swap that is normally used for the
purpose of reducing interest rate risk. In this case, the bank will enter into
a swap to pay floating rates, currently at 5.0 percent adjusted quarterly based
on 3-month LIBOR rates, and receive a fixed rate of 6.0 percent. The beauty
of this transaction is that the bank will have a positive net interest income at
least for the first three months. As long as 3-month LIBOR rates do not go
up by more than one percent, which he does not think it will, the positive net
interest income will last for the duration of the transaction. Even if 3-rnonth
LIBOR rates rise higher than 6.0 percent, the bank has already put some
money in the pocket during the early part of the transaction, and hopefully it
will be enough to cover the future shortfall. So he checks the counterparty's
credit rating and enters into a $50 million reverse swap.
The young financial analyst reports the transaction to the Treasurer. The
Treasurer happens to be very busy at that moment because the Dollar has just
hit a 6-month high against the Yen, and the institution happens to have a large
open position in US dollar. He does not have time to review the details of
this swap transaction. On the other hand, it is a simple transaction. So he
asks the financial analyst to inform the accounting department of the entire
transaction and he himself reports to the Chief Executive that the entire loan
exposure is hedged and everything is all right. Both are happy because the
institution has just earned a handsome profit in the currency market, and the
interest rate risk on the $50 million loan has been fully hedged.
The above example is a real case with a slight modification. It happened at
a large problem bank in California several years ago. The bank put a $300
million pay-floating-receive-fixed swap on its book. At that time the yield
curve was upward sloping, and this swap would increase the institution's
interest rate exposure if interest rates rise. The bank's policy allowed
management to enter into swap and other derivative transactions only for
the purposes of hedging or reducing the bank's interest rate exposure. Just
like other messy transactions, there were no documented analysis and record
on this swap transaction. Management admitted that it was a mistake, and
told the examiners that the analyst was no longer working for the bank and
nobody knew the reasoning behind that transaction.
What happened to this transaction was amazing. In the early 90's, the US
short-term interest rates continued to drop. This reverse swap actually
made a lot of money for the bank.
So the young analyst won his bet. But the question is - was it a hedge? The
answer is no. This was a bet on interest rates. Management probably knew
and endorsed the transaction, but was afraid that the regulators might
criticise the institution of betting on interest rates. Therefore, no documented
analysis was retained. This happened quite often during the banking crisis
in the US several years ago because of the federal deposit insurance system
- if the bet was right, the institution would be saved and management would
be rewarded handsomely; if the bet was wrong, the government would
have to pay for the damages.
Hedging is a complicated issue. To hedge a position can reduce risk, but it
also implies foregoing of business opportunity and potential profit. For
example, a back-to-back transaction can reduce your price risk to a minimum
level. However, it also means that the institution will not be able to enjoy
any gain. (Even a back-to-back transaction cannot eliminate risk entirely
because it introduces additional credit risk and liquidity risk.)
How much risk a bank is willing to take depends on the institution's capital
level, business strategy, expertise, sophistication of systems, etc. In our
example, if the institution leaves this $50 million loan totally unhedged,
there may not be too much problem if the institution has a strong capital
position which can tolerate this kind of risk, provided that proper analysis
has been performed and documented.
In reviewing a hedge transaction, examiners usually look at the entire process,

the oversight by management, the analysis and the documentation. To hedge
or not to hedge is a management decision.
It should be part of the
institution's entire asset/liability management process. It should be properly

analysed and documented. In addition, the analysis should be reviewed and
approved by management, and even by the board if the transaction is
considered significant to the institution.
The current rules governing the accounting treatment for derivatives are
quite weak. They do not adequately cover some of the most basic types
of derivative products. Accounting for end-user hedging activities is the
most problematic derivatives accounting issue. Accounting rules for these
activities are incomplete and could easily be mis-applied. This situation
exists in Hong Kong, the US and the UK.
Traditional accounting standards only cover certain derivatives instruments.
For example, in the US, SFAS 52 covers foreign currency transactions, and
SFAS 80 covers futures contracts. These accounting standards may not cover
other derivatives transactions such as swaps, options, structured notes.
The traditional practice in hedge accounting is to treat a transaction as a
hedge if it meets the following general criteria:
1. The item to be hedged exposed the enterprise to price for interest
rate) risk. In our example, there definitely is an interest rate risk. If
interest rates rise, the institution will suffer a loss on this loan.
Therefore, this criterion is met. To fulfil this requirement, certain
analytical work must be performed and documented by management.
2. The item being hedged and the hedging instrument are specifically
identified by management and the relationship between them is
designated as hedge. This criterion is also met in our example.
Again, proper documentation is required.
3. The hedging instrument is expected to reduce such exposure
effectively and continue to do so throughout the life of the
transaction.
For this criterion to be met, at the inception of the
hedge and throughout the hedge period, high correlation of changes

in (a) the market value of the hedging instrument and (b) the fair value
of, or interest income or expense associated with, the hedged item
shall be probable so that the result of the hedging instrument will
substantially offset the effects of price and interest rate changes on the
exposed item. However, the accounting standard falls short of saying
what "high correlation" is. The "hedge" in our example does not meet
this criterion because when interest rates rise, the values of both the
hedging instrument and the instrument being hedged decrease.
For a transaction qualified as a hedge, the recognition of a change in the
hedging instrument's market value is not required until the reporting period
in
which the change in market value of the hedged item is ultimately
recognised. This accounting treatment allows the delay of recognition of

profits and losses for instruments designated as hedge, and opens the door
for abuses by companies which want to hide their derivatives losses. Because
the traditional accounting standards are incomplete, it is difficult to police
abuses. On the other hand, it is not that difficult to find some correlation
between two items in a multi-billion dollar assets and liabilities portfolios
and call them a hedge, even though the so called "hedge" may not make any
sense to the institution's existing asset/liability structure.
Several international accounting bodies, including the Hong Kong Society of
Accountants, are currently addressing this issue. Until the new standards
become effective, policing accounting abuses in derivatives transactions
remains a difficult job.
14
One of the most popular topics in the derivatives and risk management circle
these days is credit derivatives. This latest financial innovation may have
tremendous impact on how banks and financial institutions operate in the future.
The most important characteristic of derivatives is its ability of "bundling"
or "unbundling" risk and return. For example, buying an index futures
contract means participating in the ups or downs of all the underlying
stocks in the index. On the other hand, a pool of mortgage loans can be
"unbundled" into several different tranches of mortgage-backed securities
or collateral mortgage obligations (CMO) and sold to different types of
investors who have different risk and return requirements. Credit derivatives
are under the concept of "unbundling".
The return on any financial instrument depends on the risk level of the
financial instrument. Many financial instruments have more than one type
of risk. For example, a corporate bond has its credit, interest rate and
liquidity risk components, and may even have additional tax and legal risk
components. An investor may find that a particular corporate bond is
suitable for his risk/return requirement except for the credit risk. In the
past, he might just forget about buying that bond because there was no way
for him to get rid of the credit risk component of this investment. With
credit derivatives,
he can now buy this bond and "unbundle" away the
specific credit risk of the subject company.

There are three common forms of credit derivatives, namely, credit default
swap, credit linked note and total return swap.
Credit Derivatives
CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP

The simplest form of credit derivatives is credit default swap (or default
option) in which Bank A (the protection seeker) pays a fee (usually in basis
points) to Bank B (the protection provider) to protect the financial loss
arising from the default or other credit event of the Company X bond (the
reference asset). Bank B is usually a much stronger company than Company
X, otherwise it makes no sense for Bank A to seek protection from Bank B.
Bank A
(Protection Seeker)
Company X
Bond
Fee in bps per quarter
Bank B
Notional of the contract less (Protection Provider)
recovery value of Company X
bond if credit event occurs/
zero if no credit event
Under the terms of the contract, if a defined credit event or default occurs
during the term of the contract, Bank B will pay Bank A the notional of the
contract less any recovery value of the reference asset (usually 90 days after
the defined event).
This arrangement is like an insurance policy, a guarantee or a letter of
credit
But the key point is that the credit risk of this bond has been
"unbundled" away from the bond. For example, under the credit default
option contract, Bank A pays Bank B 12 basis points on a $10 million
notional per quarter for five years.
If a credit event occurs during the
period, and the market price of the reference asset is 75 three months
after the event, Bank A will get $2.5 million (the face value of $10 million
minus the recovery value of $7.5 million) from Bank B.
CREDIT LINKED NOTE

Bank A can also sell something called "credit linked note" to protect the
loss arising from the default or credit event of the Company X bond. In
the arrangement of a credit linked note, Bank A issues a note linked to the
subject bond (the reference asset), and the note pays a specified fixed or
Credit Derivatives
floating interest rate just like other notes. Bank B buys the note at par. If
no default or defined credit event occurs during the term of the note, the
note will mature at par. However, if a defined credit event occurs, the note
will be redeemed for the recovery value of the reference asset (usually 90
days after the credit event). For example, Bank B purchased a $10 million
credit linked note from Bank A and Company X's credit rating declined from
BBB to BB during the term of the note and this rating decline is defined as
a credit event. The subject bond's market value is 65 three months after
the rating decline. The note will be redeemed for the recovery value of
$6.5 million. Therefore, Bank A's gain of $3.5 million from the credit linked
note transaction will offset the loss of $3.5 million due to its holding of a
$10 million Company X bond.
Principal of note
Bank A
(Protection Seeker)
i
Company X
Bond
Interest on note
Bank B
(Protection
Provider)
Recovery value if credit event
occurs / principal at maturity
if no credit event
TOTAL RETURN SWAP

In a total return swap arrangement, Bank A (the protection seeker) agrees
to pay Bank B (the protection provider) all contractual payments plus any
appreciation in market value of the subject bond (the total return on the
reference asset), and Bank B agrees to pay Bank A LIBOR plus specified
basis points, say z bps, as well as any depreciation in market value of the
reference asset during the term of the swap.
Total return on
Company X bond
(all contractual payment
+ appreciation)
Bank A
(Protection Seeker)
Company X
Bond
Credit Derivatives
LIBOR + z bps + depreciation
Bank B
(Protection Provider)
APPLICATION OF CREDIT DERIVATIVES

You may ask why Bank A wants to enter into these credit derivatives
arrangements such as total return swap. It can simply invest in the interbank market or other markets to obtain the same return of LIBOR plus z
basis points which Bank B would pay.
This analysis may be correct from a pure yield or return point of view But
banks have other things to consider. Bank A is concerned that Company X's
credit standing may deteriorate in the long run, but it still wants to keep a
good relationship with Company X. Therefore, it continues to supply Company
X's financing needs. Credit derivatives allow Bank A to continue to have a
good relationship with Company X without taking on the credit risk it does
not want to take. (Bank A does not have to tell Company X that it has
purchased a credit default option or sold a credit linked note relating to
Company X.)
Another common application of credit derivatives is to reduce credit
concentration on certain counterparties. For example, Bank A may want
to reduce its exposure to Company X for certain loans or lines of credit
which have already been on BankA's book by entering into a credit derivative
contract with a third party
One important characteristic of credit derivatives is that Bank A, the
protection seeker in the above examples, does not necessarily have to hold
the bond of Company X (the reference asset) in order for it to participate
in these arrangements. In fact, Bank A does not even have to have any
relationship with Company X. Bank A simply speculates that an adverse
credit event will occur to Company X and trades credit derivatives using
the bond of Company X as a reference asset. Credit derivatives represent
a new class of investment for professional investors.
REGULATORY IMPLICATION
Regulators need to ensure that banks have proper risk management tools
which include expertise, systems and controls in place for their credit
Credit Derivatives
derivatives operations. Similar to other financial derivatives, banks need to

manage related market risk, credit risk, liquidity risk, operational risk, legal
risk and regulatory risk of credit derivatives.
On the other hand, credit derivatives bring up a new topic for regulators
relating to the capital adequacy requirement regime. For credit default swaps,
the protection seeker to a large extent reduces the original credit exposure.
However, in the process, it acquires a new counterparty risk - the credit
risk of the protection provider. How this improved credit exposure situation
should be treated in terms of capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is a sensitive issue
for regulators. For credit linked notes and total return swaps, banks get rid
of some of the original credit risk but also acquire new price risk and
counterparty risk. These are also CAR-related issues regulators have to deal
with.
POTENTIAL IMPACT OF CREDIT DERIVATIVES TO THE BANKING INDUSTRY

To banks, credit derivatives are not just another financial innovation. They
may alter the traditional way banks and financial institutions conduct their
banking businesses. As we all know, at least two thirds (some even say 90
percent) of risks in banking activities relate to credit, and credit risk is
extremely difficult to quantify and manage. Credit derivatives provide bankers
with a genuine tool to deal with credit issues. For example, a bank can
reduce its property exposure using credit derivatives if management thinks
that the property exposure of the bank is too high.
Credit derivatives are in a way like mortgage banking business in the US
where mortgage originators package pools of mortgage loans, unbundle them
into pieces, and sell them to different types of investors in the secondary
market. Mortgage originators collect the origination fees, keep the servicing
right of these loans and earn a servicing spread. Similarly, credit derivatives
unbundle the credit risk from a financial instrument. They give banks more
options to diversify their portfolios, alter their asset/liability management
strategies, maneuver their regulatory capital structures, etc. The mortgage
banking business was an innovation in the 80s and later became an industry
Credit Derivatives
KSm
in the US. Equally innovative, credit derivatives are poised for further growth
Several years down the road, it will not be surprising to see a bank selling
some or even most of its credit exposures in its asset portfolio and managing
mainly the price risk component of these assets. It probably makes sense
for some banks to adopt this strategy because it is easier to manage price
risk than credit risk. Although this strategy reduces the yield of these assets,
it can increase the volume of lending activities to compensate for the yield
reduction. This is because this strategy may free up some of the bank's
regulatory capital relating to credit risk.
Credit Derivatives
15
AT
In the very first chapter of this book, we touched on the concept of value at
risk.
Several years ago, the concept of value at risk was still relatively new. Since
then, it has gained a lot of publicity on both the market and the regulatory
fronts.
From the participants' point of view, value at risk is an extremely useful tool
for measuring market risk. It summarises the market risk exposure of all
financial instruments in a bank's trading portfolio into a single number.
Nowadays, if a dealer bank is not using value at risk or other similar
methodologies to measure market risk for its trading activities, it will be
perceived to be lagging behind the best practice standard.
The regulators also consider value at risk a useful tool in measuring market
risk. The Basle Committee has issued an amendment to the 1988 Capital
Accord to incorporate market risk in which value at risk is an acceptable
and preferred method for determining the required capital level for a bank's
trading risk.
In the first chapter, we defined value at risk as "the expected loss from an
adverse market movement with a specified probability over a period of
time". We also made a simple illustration to demonstrate the concept of
value at risk. Although the concept of value at risk is quite simple and easy
to understand, the implementation of value at risk is not an easy job. In this
chapter, we will introduce some of the most commonly used value at risk
approaches and discuss the advantages and shortcomings of using value at
risk.
Value at Risk
THE VARIANCE-COVARIANCE METHOD
The trading portfolio of a bank usually includes more than one product and
currency. It is therefore important to address the correlation factor. A
commonly used method is the variance-covariance method.
Under the variance-covariance method, we need to collect the historical
volatility data plus one more the correlation between each pair of assets.
Assume that we have a two-asset portfolio this time, and some of the
information about these two assets are as follows:
Asset A
Asset B
Current market price per unit
$50
$100
Number of units held
100
100
Total market value
$5,000
$ 10,000
Historical volatility
1.0% (one day)
2.0% (one day)
Assume that we are calculating the market risk capital charge for these two
assets using Basle Committee's Quantitative criteria 99% confidence level
(or 2.33 standard deviations for one day) and a 10-day holding period.
Value at risk of A = $5,000 x 2.33 x 1.0% x VlO = $368.41
Value at risk of B = $10,000 x 2.33 x 2.0% x Vm = $1,473.62
The number 2.33 is the number of standard deviation which corresponds
with 99% confidence level. The number VTo is the multiplication factor of
the required holding period which is 10 days in this case. If the holding
period is one year, the multiplication factor is square root of 252 because
there are 252 trading days in one year.
The next step is to consider the correlation between these two assets.
Again, we need to collect and analyse the historical correlation between
each parr of assets. In order to make this analysis meaningful, we need a
lot of observations - at least one year's data as required by the Basle
Committee. And we need to use the familiar correlation formula:
Value at Risk
Risk A H. B = V RA2 + Rs2 + 2CRARB

where RA and RB are the value at risk of A and B respectively, and C is the
correlation between A and B
All correlation numbers lie between -I and I. Within this range, there are
three critical correlation numbers: I, 0 and -I. If the prices of these two
assets always move perfectly together, the correlation is I. We can simply
add the two value at risk numbers together and derive the portfolio value
at risk which is 1,842.03.
If the correlation is 0 between these two assets, which means that these two
assets are completely independent of each other, the portfolio value at risk is:
V36874I 2 + l,473.622 + 0 = 1,518.97

If the correlation is -1, which means that they offset each other, the portfolio
value at risk is:
V 368.412 + l,473.622 + 2 x (-1) x 368.41 x 1,473.62 = 1,105.21
Or you can simply subtract $368.41 from $1,473.62.
As we can see, the concept of the variance-covariance method is quite simple.
But again, the implementation is quite complicated. We need to measure each
asset's volatility and the correlations between each pair of assets based on
historical data. For a two-asset portfolio, it is not very difficult. But for a
portfolio which has thousands of positions, this is a big job.
The above example is a simple form of variance-covariance method. Each
bank would have its own version in applying this method. A commonly used
variance-covariance method in the market usually involves several steps:
I. Unbundle different types of risk from each asset or position based on
market factors. For example, a foreign bond would be separated into
two cash-flow components - principal and interest payment; and each
of these two components will be further unbundled by different market
factors such as interest rate and exchange rate factors. Therefore, each
Value at Risk
"cell" would have a cash flow exposed to only one type of market factor.
2. Group the cells with the same (or similar) characteristics together.
3. Calculate the value at risk for each cell group. Some make an assumption
that the distribution is normal.
4. Calculate the portfolio value at risk using the variance-covariance matrix.
THE HISTORICAL SIMULATION METHOD
The historical simulation method is based on the assumption that history

will repeat itself.
Assume that we have a portfolio of two assets and their current market values
are $70 and $30 respectively. Next, we need to "re-value" these assets and
come up with some "alternative values" based on their historical price
movements. Assume further that we need 100 sets of these alternative values
(some people call them observation points) to make the result meaningful.
We observe the market prices of these two assets for the past 100 trading
days. Based on these observation points, we can establish a list of alternative
values, denoted as Vn and Wn, as follows:
Observed market
Observed portfolio
A in observed market Alternative value
values Vn and W%
value Pn,
value APn = Pn - Pn-i,
where n = 0,...f 1 00
where n = 0,..,., 100
where n = 0,...., 100
Vo = $70,Wo = $30
Po = $IOO
Vi = $68,W. = $22
P. = $90
APi = -$10
$90
V2 = $70,W2 = $25
Pi = $95
AP2 = +$5
$105
V3 = $73,W3 = $27
P3=$IOO
APs = +$5
$105
V4 = $7I,W4 = $30
P4 = $ I O I
AP4 = +$l
$101
etc.
etc.
etc.
etc.
V99 = $68,W99 = $25
P99 = $93
APioo = +$4
$104
Vioo = $67,Wioo = $30 Pioo = $97
AV=Po + AP
Value at Risk
Assume that the portfolio's average rate of return and standard deviation
are 0% and 5% respectively, and the 100 alternative values are distributed
normally as follows:
100
The distribution indicates that a lot of the alternative values (approximately

68 percent of them) fall in the range between 95 and 105. If we expand
the range a little wider, say between 90 and 110, there are approximately
95 percent of the alternative prices falling in this range. If we expand this
range wider again between 85 and 115, it covers almost all the alternative
prices, 99.7 percent of them.
For value at risk, we are only concerned with the adverse price movement,
or the "bad" side of the price range. Therefore,
in our example and
assuming normal distribution, the one-day one-standard deviation value at

risk is $5, one-day two-standard deviation value at risk is $10, and one-day
three-standard deviation value at risk is $15. These one-tailed probability
numbers correspond to 84%,
97.7% and 99.86% confidence levels
respectively.
With the historical simulation approach, the assumption of normal distribution
can in fact be relaxed. The 100 sets of daily change in the portfolio value,
APn, can be ranked from the day with the worst performance to the day
with the best performance.
Value at Risk
Daily profit and loss ranked in ascending order:

Rank
Performance 415
-$13 412 -$9.5
49 -$8.8
96
+$/
97
98
99
100
+$9 +$9.3 +$ij +$14
A line can then be drawn at the 95th percentile to find the value at risk with
95% confidence level, one tailed. In our example, it would be the fifth worst
performance or -$9.
Another advantage of using historical simulation is that since all data is
already available, there is no need to care about correlation as they are
already embedded in the historical data.
The concept of this method is easy to understand but its implementation
is not so easy.
In order to make the calculation meaningful, we need a significant number
of observation points or historical data. The Basle Committee requires a
minimum data of one year for the market risk capital charge calculation.
Sophisticated market participants usually use longer period (three to five
years) of historical data. Therefore, the system capacity is also an issue.
THE MONTE CARLO METHOD
In forecasting the future, there are two distinct approaches. Models that
assume a fixed relationship between the inputs and that the inputs lead to
an unambiguous result are called deterministic.
Models that depend on
random or uncertain inputs which provide a distribution of probable results

are called stochastic. This may sound a bit abstract. Mark Kritzman gave
an excellent example to explain the difference between deterministic process
and stochastic process: ua model that predicts an eclipse, for example, is
deterministic, because it relies on known fixed laws governing the motions
of the earth, the moon and the sun. You are unlikely to hear an astronomer
say that there is a 30% chance of an eclipse next Wednesday. A model that
predicts tomorrow's weather, however, is stochastic, because many uncertain
Value at Risk
elements influence the weather."1 The observatory is sometimes blamed for

telling people that there is only a slight chance of rain but it turns out
pouring right at lunch time. The observatory may not have done a poor job.
The reason is that the uncertain elements, which the observatory cannot
forecast, dominate the result of the forecast in this case.
MONTE CARLO SIMULATION INVOLVES A STOCHASTIC PROCESS

The concept of Monte Carlo method is quite simple. For value at risk in
a Monte Carlo simulation, the researcher needs to obtain a series of values
from changes in market factors. These values of changes in market factors
are then added to the current market value, and thus a series of alternative
values are derived just like the historical simulation method. However, the
main difference between these two methods lies in the way of obtaining the
series of changes in the market factors.
Unlike the historical simulation method, the Monte Carlo simulation method
does not rely on past price movements in forecasting future prices. The
stochastic process says that the forecast of future prices should be expressed
in terms of probability distribution and unaffected by the price one week
ago or one month ago. In other words, a company's share price of $241
a week ago has no more meaning than the fact that its price a week ago
was $241.
Although we say that the Monte Carlo process does not rely on past price
experience to predict the future, it does require the researcher to define
certain parameters based on past experience,
such as volatility and
correlations between market factors.

The Monte Carlo method requires the researcher to derive a value or
values through the use of a sequence of random paths which are selected
from each of the market factors' normal distribution. The condition of normal
distribution means that the width of the distribution is based on variance
' Mark Kr/tzman, "About Monte Carlo Simulation", Financial Analysts Journal, November/December / 993.
Value at Risk
of the market factor. Through this method, the simulation can be done
many times and the results of each of the simulation processes are unrelated
to each other. That is, they follow the independence condition.
The theoretical foundation for stochastic process is that if "we sum or
average a group of independent random variables, which themselves are not
normally distributed, the sum or average will be normally distributed if the
group is sufficiently large."2
In layman's term, a researcher simulates many times through a random
process to obtain a series of values from changes in market factors in a
stochastic process. Although we use the term random, the process actually
goes through certain precise mathematical processes.
To simplify our
discussion, we could think that the researcher simulates the behaviour of

the current market price through a random process. In this random process,
the current market price goes through many random paths independent of
each other under certain defined parameters. By the end, the researcher
obtains a distribution of values.
How many times a researcher should repeat the simulation process or how
many paths he should use depends on how accurate he wants the outcome
to be and how powerful his computer is. Researchers usually use at least
one thousand paths in a Monte Carlo simulation process.
But this is just the value at risk of one instrument in the portfolio. If there
are 10,000 instruments in the portfolio, the researcher has to repeat the
above process 10,000 times. If 1,000 paths are being used for each instrument,
the researcher has to run the simulation 10,000,000 times. Therefore, running
a Monte Carlo simulation for value at risk purpose is quite time-consuming
and is seldom run on a full portfolio basis. It is usually run on option related
instruments and on a less frequent basis for management information purpose.
Mark Kritzman, "About Monte Carlo Simulation", Financial Analysts Journal, November/December / 993.
Value at Risk
ABOUT VALUE AT
The financial world is moving towards a direction of increasingly relying on

quantitative methodology to manage risk. The value at risk method is based on
sound mathematical foundation. Its result can be explained by statistical theories
and is more accurate than other traditional risk measurement methodologies.
The most significant benefit of using value at risk to measure a portfolio's
risk exposure is that all the exposures in the portfolio can be summarised
into one single meaningful number and this number is tied directly to the
P/L Value at risk expresses the risk exposure of a portfolio in terms of how
frequent a specific level of potential loss will be exceeded. Management
only needs to review the bank's daily value at risk number to understand
the risk exposure of the portfolio.
Nevertheless, there are some shortcomings in the various approaches of
the implementation of value at risk. Here are some of them:
1. The variance-covariance models assume portfolio values are normally
distributed, but usually they are not. Therefore, using standard deviation
to measure potential loss would likely provide an inaccurate result.
2. The variance-covariance method usually applies the delta-gamma method
to calculate the value at risk for portfolios which contain options. Delta
is a linear measurement and is good only for a small change in the price
of the underlying (or market factors). For large changes, delta is not
accurate. Ironically, measuring large changes is what value at risk attempts
to do. Even with enhanced models which incorporate gamma, "since the
change in slope or curvature of the option value curve is not constant for
different prices of the underlying, the risk measure including gamma will
again provide an inaccurate measure of market risk for larger changes in
the price of the underlying"3 Therefore, if a portfolio has a lot of options,
it is more suitable to use Monte Carlo method.
Charles Smithson, "Va/ue-at-r/s/c" Risk, February 1996.
Value at Risk
3. Most value at risk models use historical correlations to measure portfolio

value at risk and assume that historical correlations are stable. However,
historical correlations are not stable among market factors and financial
instruments, especially during stress periods.
4. All value at risk models require a very large data base. To handle the
calculation, there will be a great demand on the computer system capability,
especially for Monte Carlo models. Updating data also requires human
resources.
5. The use of different data could also generate different value at risk
results. For example, Bank A uses one year of historical data and Bank
B uses five years of historical data. Even if they try to measure the same
portfolio, the results will be different
6. Most value at risk models use a one-day holding period to measure the
amount of value at risk because market participants expect that financial
markets are liquid enough to enable positions to be closed out in one
day. This is acceptable in normal situations. But in abnormal situations,
a holding period of one day may be too optimistic. In other words, many
value at risk models may understate the amount of value at risk. The
Basle Committee requires a holding period of 10 days for the purpose
of calculating market risk capital. The most convenient way for banks to
comply with the Basle requirement is to apply the rule of square root
of time - the resultant amount of value at risk times the square root of
10 or 3.1623. But this also has a problem because it implies that during
this 10-day holding period, the bank will do nothing to manage this
portfolio of positions. In addition, multiplying the square root of time
may be acceptable for linear products but it will provide a distorted
result for non-linear products such as options.
7. Both the historical simulation method and variance-covariance method
rely heavily on historical data to forecast future prices. As we all know,
the past cannot predict the future, especially under a stress situation.
Value at Risk
Any risk measurement methodology is just a tool for management to better

measure, understand, control and manage risk exposures. It depends on how
management intelligently interprets the results and puts them in proper use.
Some market participants even warn that if value at risk is not used with
proper stress testing, it will certainly give management a false picture about the
institution's true risk exposure because the value at risk method is more
suitable for measuring risk exposure in normal circumstances. Also, every risk
measurement methodology has its advantages and disadvantages and value at
risk is no exception. Therefore, value at risk should be used with other
traditional risk measurement methodologies to provide management with a
complete set of tools for measuring risk.
Value at Risk
16
AND
In Chapter 5, we talked about swaps, particularly interest rate swaps, and

their use in managing financial institutions' asset/liability structures and interest
rate risk. In this chapter, we will discuss some simple hedging strategies
using Hang Seng Index Futures and Options, and HIBOR Futures.
Assume that you are a millionaire and invest heavily in the Hong Kong stock
market. You have a well-diversified portfolio (that is, your portfolio has at
least 20 stocks and these stocks represent all major market sectors in Hong
Kong) of $10 million. Now you are skeptical about the current price level
and think that there will be a market correction in the near future. You can
sell all your stocks and subsequently buy them back when the correction
is over. But there is a practical issue the cost of selling and buying the
stocks, even though you pay much less commissions than most of the
others because you trade shares in thousands each time. In addition, to
unload a huge amount of stocks in a short period of time is also practically
difficult. The alternative is to use the Hang Seng Index Futures and Options.
THE HANG SENG INDEX (HSI)
The Hang Seng Index consists of 33 blue-chip stocks. It has four sub-indices
Finance, Utilities, Properties, and Commerce & Industry. The index was
first published in 1969 (the base date). The index and sub-indices are
calculated using the weighted market capitalisation method:
Current Total Market Value of Constituent Stocks
Total Market Value of Constituent Stocks at Base Date
This is similar to how the consumer price index (CPI) is calculated. But there
is one important characteristic of this index. Because the index is based on a
weighted average of market value, and market value is determined by the price
of the stock multiplied by the number of shares outstanding, the impact on the
index of a price change in any given stock will depend on the size of that
company's market capitalisation. Share companies with higher market capitalisation
have greater impact on the index than those with lower market capitalisation.
FUTURES
Buying or selling HSI Futures contracts allows you to participate in the

overall price movement of the Hong Kong stock market, or more specifically,
the 33 stocks in the index.
The value of each HSI Futures contract is calculated by the level of the
index times $50.
In other words, each index point is worth $50. For
example, if the current level of the futures index is at 10,000, then the
contract value is $500,000.
The HSI Futures are traded in the Futures Exchange of Hong Kong for
future delivery, and are settled in cash for the difference of the contracted
index value and the spot index value. Delivery months are the spot (current)
month,
the next calendar month,
and the next two calendar quarter
months. Margin deposits are required for all participants (both buyers and
sellers).
HANG SENG INDEX OPTIONS

The HSI Options are European options. Please see an example below:
You want to buy an HSI put option which expires in June and has a strike
price (or exercise price) of 10,000 index points. If the market declines
to 9,000 on the expiry day, you can exercise your option (you will pay
a small fee for that) or settle the difference in cash between the strike
price and the official settlement price (which is the average of the
quotations of the HSI taken at five-minute intervals during the expiry day
and is very close to the HSI), provided that the strike price (which is
10,000) is higher than the current market level (or the official settlement
price) of 9,000. For this transaction, your profit for one contract is $50
x 1,000 points or $50,000 minus the premium you paid. It makes no
sense for you to exercise if the strike price is lower than the official
settlement price because your position is out-of-the-money.
In the earlier example, how are you going to hedge your stock portfolio
if you think that the market will decline substantially in the near future?
There are two different strategies: (I) sell HSI futures, and (2) buy HSI put
options and assume that the market declines by 10 percent from the 10,000
point level to the 9,000 point level and there is no transaction cost:
Strateg I:
You sell 20 HSI futures contracts of June delivery with total contract value
of $10.0 million.
$50 per index point x 10,000 points x 20 contracts = $10.0 million
If the market declines to the 9,000 point level, you can buy back 20
contracts of June delivery at 9,000 to close out the original position, and
gain $1.0 million.
$50 per index point x 20 contracts x (10,000-9,000) = $1.0 million
At the 9,000 index level, your stock portfolio is worth only $9.0 million.
With the $1.0 million gain, your total investment value remains at $10.0
million. (You have to pay a small amount of margin deposit. However, you
will get it back when you close out the account.)
Strategy 2:
Buy 20 June put option contracts at a strike price of 10,000 HSI points (an
at-the-money option because at the time you buy these contracts, the
market is at 10,000). Assume that the premium is 300 points.
If the market declines by 10 percent to the 9,000 point level, the value of
your stock portfolio declines to $9.0 million. However, the put option
contracts you bought bring you a profit of $700,000.
$50 per point x 20 contracts x (10,000 - 9,000) - $50 x 20 x 300 premium points
= $700,000.
As shown above,
because of the option premium,
you only partially
recover (or hedge) the loss by using options. That is why you often hear
from financial treasurers that using options to hedge is very expensive. The
main advantage of using options in this situation is allowing you to benefit
from the upside potential.
If your expectation is wrong and the index
surges, you will gain from your stocks while your loss is the option fee of
$300,000 you have paid.
HiBOR FUTURES
Banks and corporate treasurers may face another challenge managing the
company's interest rate risk. We have talked about using interest rate swaps
to alter a company's asset/liability structure and manage its interest rate risk.
Another commonly used method to hedge against interest rate risk is the
use of futures. In Hong Kong, the 3-month Hong Kong Interbank Offered
Rate (HIBOR) Futures introduced by the Hong Kong Futures Exchange in
1990 provide banks, corporate treasurers and investors with an important
vehicle for hedging and speculating on interest rates.
All futures exchanges operate by providing a standardised contract basis for
trading commodities and financial instruments for future delivery on margin
deposits. The HIBOR Futures are no exception. The contract size is
HK$I.O million with future delivery in the months of March, June, September,
December for up to two years. Each basis point (the tick size) is worth $25,
and the contracts are settled in cash. The exchange delivery settlement
price (EDSP) is used to determine the settlement price. The EDSP is
derived from quotations for 3-month interbank offered rates randomly
selected from 12 participating banks. The highest and the lowest two are
discarded and the remaining eight averaged to an arithmetic mean.
HIBOR Futures are quoted at 100 minus the implied futures rate.
For
example, assuming that the HIBOR rates are at 6.0 percent (the spot rate)
and the June 3-month futures rate is at 6.25 percent (recall the pricing
relation between spot and futures rates), the June 3-month HIBOR Futures
price should be quoted at 93.75 (100 - 6.25).
Assume that you are a corporate treasurer and plan to borrow $100.0
million in June for three months, and you think that the rates will move up
in the near future, increasing your borrowing cost. You can hedge this
potential interest rate risk exposure using HIBOR futures:
You sell 100 HIBOR Futures at the current price of 93.75.
If your prediction is right and 3-month HIBOR moves up to 7.25 percent
in June and the EDSP for the June contract is 92.75 (100 - 7.25), you
can close out your short sale position by buying 100 futures contracts
at 92.75 and have a gain of $250,000: (93.75 - 92.75) x 100 (basis points)
x $25 per basis point x 100 contracts = $250,000.
This gain of $250,000 will be offset by the increase in borrowing cost of
one percent for three months.
Although HIBOR Futures can be used as a hedging vehicle, they are trading
very inactively. Similar to HSI Futures, HIBOR Futures participants are
required to put up margins both initial margin and maintenance margin.
Margin requirements for HIBOR participants are usually minimal and are
returned on the close-out.
In addition to HSI Futures, HSI Options and HIBOR Futures, there are also
warrants, single stock options and futures traded in Hong Kong. However,
they are more company specific and are less useful for hedging a portfolio.
17
IN
in the previous chapters, we have talked about the nature and applications
of financial derivatives. It should now be clear to everyone that derivative
instruments are not associated with new risks. In this chapter, we will
discuss how risks should be managed in banks.
HOW
DERIVATIVES
CAN HELP IN MANAGING RISK
Derivatives actually help transform the risk nature from one to another. Going
back to the Hang Seng Index (HSI) example in Chapter 16, the initial exposure
is the stock portfolio you own. The choice of whether to use HSI Futures or
HSI options depends on which risk profile you prefer. The former eliminates
most of your risk as well as the upside potential while the more expensive
option gives you both the downside protection and the upside potential.
Seeing the positive side of the coin, we should not forget the negative side
as illustrated by the case of the $50 million loan hedge cited in Chapter 13.
Indeed, improper use of derivatives may accentuate the interest rate risk or
foreign exchange risk exposures of banks. Though undeservingly so, the
word "derivatives" often appears in headlines associated with mismanagement
and financial loss. Therefore, financial institutions are taking a closer look
at the possible impact of reputation risk.
REGULATORS' VIEWPOINT ON RISK MANAGEMENT

What is the role of the regulatory bodies? Our stance is to ensure that
banks understand the underlying nature of derivatives and use them
appropriately. The banking industry, just like every other businesses, inevitably
' This chapter was written by Mr Henry Cheng and Mr Adrian Pang.
needs to take the necessary business risk. What is important to a bank is

its ability to manage the risk and to measure risk and profit properly.
Derivative in itself is only a tool either to manage risk or enhance earnings.
Similar to home appliances, there should not be any problem to keep the
fridge and washer at home so long as the former is used to keep the food
and the latter is used to wash the clothes and not vice versa. Even for
simple tools like these, you are advised to test the machines, check the
voltage settings, fill out the warranty certificates, read the user manuals and
ask your children not to play with them improperly.
What the regulators would do is to understand how banks in Hong Kong
are using derivatives to manage their risks and to ensure that they are using
the tools properly. In order for us to achieve the goal, the HKMA issued
the guideline 12.2 in 1996 to all authorised institutions in Hong Kong,
which is reprinted in the Appendix of this book. This guideline serves to
establish a risk management framework. The framework helps set a minimum
standard we would like to stress the words "minimum standard" for
us to evaluate the adequacy and quality of the risk management system in
place. The document addresses four main areas.
First and foremost, the Board of Directors and senior management must
fully understand the nature and risks involved in the institution's activities.
It is their duty to establish risk management framework to identify, measure,
control and report such risks.
The next focus would be to look into the actual market risk and credit risk
management system in place. To evaluate the quality in these two areas, the
level of risk, complexity and volume of derivative activities would always be
taken into account. By this, it means that the risk management system of
a bank which is an active dealer in derivatives should be much more
sophisticated than what one would expect from a bank which only uses
derivatives for the purpose of asset/liability management.
Operational risk management is another area of concern - a vital area in

fact
In the past, cases of colossal financial loss were reported, and the
media liked to attribute these losses to the trading of derivatives. In substance,

the true villain in many of the cases was inadequate internal controls, lack
of segregation of duties, improper procedures, human error, system failure
or fraud.
THE
IMPORTANCE OF SENIOR MANAGEMENT'S INVOLVEMENT
Whilst the management of market risk, credit risk and operational risk have
been widely discussed in the industry, we would discuss more about senior
management oversight in the following section.
Earnings, earnings per share to be more exact, is very important to a bank.
Thus, it is not surprising that when senior management receive the
management reports, the first thing, if not the only thing, they look at are
the profit and loss figures.
However, there are at least two more basic issues which the senior executives
should pay attention to. Is the profit generated from activities which
they and the shareholders approve? Is the profit a real and normal one?
These two seemingly easy questions are, in reality, great challenges to the
senior executives - especially when it comes to derivative activities.
The first rule to successful risk management is for the Board of Directors
and senior management to realise that it is their duty to fully understand the
nature and risks involved in the institution's activities, and to establish a risk
management framework to identify, measure, control and report such risks.
In the previous chapters, we have only talked about market risk and credit
risk. However,
real life is much more complicated and management need
to oversee other types of risk which are difficult to quantify. Examples are
regulatory risk, legal risk, liquidity risk, reputation risk and operational risk.
The establishment of a set of comprehensively written policies and procedures
is always the starting point for high quality senior management oversight. In
(Eft!
brief, the policies and procedures should lay out the scope of business
activities, the organisation structure showing clear reporting line, authority
and responsibility for each business activity indicating the segregation of
duties, the framework of risk management system demonstrating the risk
identification process, risk measurement methodology and the risk reporting
mechanism.
Our experience is that most banks have some kind of policies and procedures,
but many of them are either too brief or not updated. For some banks,
their policies and procedures have remained unchanged for years even
though the banks may have gone through several organisational changes.
And in some cases, the policy is so brief that the operational staff do not
have a clear idea about how the policy should be properly implemented.
Policies and procedures are like the rules of the volleyball game. Everyone
involved in the game, including the referees, should know all but "not some"
of the rules.
Therefore, policies and procedures should be written as
clearly as possible and all the staff involved should be asked to read and
understand the rules.
However,
unlike volleyball game, the game of
derivatives changes rapidly and it is important to constantly review the rules

to make sure that they are still applicable.
The next issue is the establishment of a risk management system.This is not
the duty of the risk manager but the senior management. The Board of
Directors and senior management are the ones responsible for allocating
the resources. If the senior management decide to engage in derivative
activities, they should first think about the resources needed to establish a
good risk management system. These are the necessary steps for conducting
derivatives business, similar to renting an office and furniture, hiring a branch
manager and operating staff before opening a branch. What we wish to
point out here is resource commitment. We have seen some banks which
hurried into the derivatives market, yet the senior management were reluctant
to set up the necessary infrastructure, like the installation of appropriate
risk management system and the recruiting of experienced back office and
middle office staff.
j|j||3
Another point to ponder on is the effectiveness of the risk management

system. A good risk management system should accurately identify, measure
and report all the risks involved. The system should also be able to give
early warning signals. This issue is a rather technical one and may have to
be designed differently for different products. In most cases, stress testing
and scenario analysis have to be conducted in addition to a carefully set risk
limit structure. Questions like "what is the impact on my profit and loss
account and cash flows if the stock market crashes like the one in 1987?"
and "what will happen to my profit and loss account and cash flows if the
liquidity of the swap market suddenly dries up?" should always come to the
minds of the senior management.
Some market participants argue that it is almost impossible to design a
perfect early warning system. In response to such argument, Dominic
Casserley wrote in his book - Facing Up to the Risks, "no one warning
system works for all risks, but those without any warning system will be the
last in a market to spot trouble before it arrives, and may go on investing
after it is clearly time to stop."
Internal audit is another area we often emphasised, the importance of which
arises from the need to assess the soundness and adequacy of the risk
management system. For more sophisticated market participants, the pricing
and revaluation models should also be independently validated. Internal
audit should also test the compliance with the authorised institution's policies
and procedures.
Audit is one of the effective warning systems which the senior management
should really listen to. However, sometimes the senior management simply
assume everything would be followed up and rectified - until maybe a year
later when they read the next audit report and see the same findings under
the section "follow up of last audit findings".
Finally, we would like to discuss the new products approval policy. This is
an area to which senior management probably have not paid enough attention.
The derivatives industry can be compared to any other industry, the

manufacturing of cars for instance. A manufacturer who has been making
sedans wants to go into the market of sports cars. What does he need to
think about? The answer would be a long list - to conduct market analysis,
install new production line (or modify the existing one), source new
components, plan for the production volume and inventory level and formulate
the pricing strategies.
Business planning in the derivatives market is no different. If a bank used
to trade in the G-7 foreign exchange market and the treasurer suggests that
the bank should go for the trading of Asian currencies, what do the senior
management need to think about? The list should be as long as that of the
car manufacturer. What are the risks associated with trading Asian currencies
- market risk, credit risk or liquidity risk? What is the incremental risk to
our existing activities? Do we need to have different operational procedures?
Shall we improve the limit structure and reporting system to address, say,
the liquidity risk? What are the regulatory, legal and tax implications? Do
we have the expertise in the Asian markets?
Without a comprehensive policy on new products approval, a bank may
start trading in the Asian currencies without careful planning, because "the
nature is similar to the G-7 currencies" according to some bankers. However,
the consequences may be quite different.
CONCLUDING REHARKS
To conclude, we have seen in this book a variety of derivative products and
their uses. This book is not for market experts and there are many complex
derivative products that we have not covered. However, we hope you have
grasped the concepts of basic building blocks such as options, futures and
forwards. Once you have a good understanding of the fundamentals, it is not
very difficult to analyse more complex products.
Derivatives are not monsters. They are just tools to transfer risks from one
format to another. In fact, they can be very useful tools for asset/liability
management in banks if properly used. However, entering into derivative

transactions without understanding their natures could be fatal. Therefore,
bankers and treasurers need to understand the inherent risks of the product,
establish trading limits and review the risk exposures regularly. The Appendix
includes the minimum requirements that the HKMA expects banks to have
when conducting derivatives business.
After reading this book, we hope you will have a better understanding of
derivatives and risk management. As the derivatives market is evolving
rapidly and new products are developed from time to time, continuing
reading about the subject is essential to keep abreast of the market
developments.
ON
OF
AND
INTRODUCTION
1. The Monetary Authority (MA) issued in December 1994 a guideline on
"Risk Management of Financial Derivative Activities" to set out the basic
principles of a prudent system to control the risks in derivatives activities.
These include:
a) appropriate oversight by the board of directors and senior
management;
b) adequate risk management process that integrates prudent risk limits,
sound measurement procedures and information systems, continuous
risk monitoring and frequent management reporting; and
c) comprehensive internal controls and audit procedures.
2. This Guideline supplements the December 1994 Guideline by providing
additional guidance relating to specific aspects of the risk management
process. It has taken account of observations from, and weaknesses
identified in, the surveys and treasury visits conducted by the MA since
December 1994; the findings of the review of internal control systems
in respect of trading activities carried out by authorized institutions in
March 1995 in response to the MA's request following the collapse of
Barings; the recommendations of the Group of Thirty and the lessons
learned from the cases of Barings and Daiwa Bank having regard in
particular to the official reports on the Barings collapse issued in the UK
and Singapore. While this Guideline is relevant to the trading of financial
instruments in general, it concentrates particularly on the trading of
derivatives. This reflects the rapid growth in these instruments, the
Guideline on Risk Management of Derivatives and Other Traded Instruments
opportunities for increased leverage which they offer and the complexity
of some derivatives products which may complicate the task of risk
management. The present guideline should be read in conjunction with
the December 1994 Guideline.
3.
It should be emphasized right at the outset that the problems of Barings and
Daiwa Bank arose to a large extent from a failure of basic internal controls,
such as lack of segregation of duties. The valuation and measurement
challenges posed by complex derivatives products should not distract
institutions from the need to ensure that the basic controls are in place.
4. This Guideline applies to all authorized institutions and to the subsidiaries

of all locally incorporated authorized institutions which engage in trading
activities. Trading in this context includes market-making, position-taking,
arbitrage and trading on behalf of customers. Broadly speaking, institutions
which trade in derivatives can be classified into two main categories:
dealers and end-users. Dealers market derivatives products to customers
and usually also trade for their own account. This group can be further
subdivided into dealers who provide quotes to other market professionals
(as well as to customers) and other dealers who provide quotes only
to customers or are less active. End-users trade only for their own
account.They are divided into active position-takers who trade frequently
for their own account and take large positions, and limited end-users who
are characterised by smaller portfolios, less complex products, and lower
transaction volume. The actual risk management processes that should
be put in place should be commensurate with the nature, size and
complexity of individual institutions' trading activities. An institution
which is an active dealer or position-taker will require a more elaborate
system of risk management. The MA will, during the course of its
supervision of institutions' derivatives activities, classify institutions into
the categories mentioned above (i.e. active dealers, dealers, active positiontakers and limited end-users) and will communicate this classification to
the institutions concerned. It will assess the adequacy of institutions'
risk management systems against this classification.
MANAGEMENT AND CORPORATE
5. As the Barings case illustrated, the overall quality of risk management

within an authorized institution cannot be divorced from the overall
quality of its board and senior management, organizational structure and
culture. It is particularly vital with potentially complex products such as
derivatives that the board and senior management should understand the
nature of the business which they are supposed to be controlling. This
includes an understanding of the nature of the relationship between risk
and reward, in particular an appreciation that it is inherently implausible
that an apparently low risk business can generate high rewards. As in the
case of Barings, unusually high reported profitability may be a sign that
excessive risks are being taken (or that there may be false accounting).
6. The board and senior management also need to demonstrate through
their actions and behaviour that they have a strong commitment to an
effective control environment throughout the organization. This will be
shown in part by the risk management policies which they approve (see
paragraphs 12 to 15 below). However, it is important to ensure that
these policies do not simply exist on paper, but are also applied in
practice.
This will depend on such factors as the managerial and
operational resources which are actually devoted to risk management

within the institution, the support and back-up which are given to internal
audit and to the risk control unit (if it exists) and the action which is
taken to deal with breaches of policies, procedures and limits. These are
areas which are subject to examination by the MA.
7. The board and senior management should avoid giving conflicting signals
to employees by appearing to advocate prudent risk management while
at the same time awarding large bonuses which are directly linked to
short-term trading performance. This may encourage excessive risktaking and at worse, deliberate falsification of positions and concealment
of losses. In general, steady earnings from low risk positions are of
higher quality than volatile earnings from high risk positions and should
be awarded accordingly. Where bonuses are paid, management should
consider how the possible adverse effects can be minimized,
e.g. by
relating bonuses to longer-term trading performance or risk adjusted

performance, or by paying the bonuses over a period of time.
8. It is also the duty of the board and senior management to ensure that
the organization of the institution is conducive to managing risk. It is
necessary to ensure that clear lines of responsibility and accountability
are established for all business activities, including those which are
conducted in separate subsidiaries.
9. A number of banks have adopted a system of "matrix management"
whereby their various business operations around the world report to
product managers or function managers who have responsibility for
products or particular business activities on a global or regional basis.
This is combined with reporting to local country managers who should
have an overview of the business as a whole within their particular
geographical areas. Such a system was operated by Barings.
10. The matrix system can be helpful in ensuring that the risks arising in the
same product around the world are aggregated and centrally managed,
thus making it easier to apply common standards and to manage the
risks. However, if applied inappropriately, it can suffer from two main
flaws, both of which were evident in the case of Barings:
a) it can result in confused reporting lines and blurred responsibilities
where the local operation is reporting to a number of different
product managers. This may lead to lack of responsibility and control
at the senior management level for the operation in question; and
b) the local country manager may be either unwilling or unable (e.g.
because of lack of a clear mandate) to exercise supervision over the
business activities conducted within his jurisdiction.
11. Experience has shown that it is difficult to control a trading operation from
a distance. The central risk control function at the head office should
ensure that there is sufficient awareness of the risks and the size of exposure
of the trading activities conducted in overseas operations.The local country
manager also needs to have sufficient understanding of the business in his
territory and the formal authority to ensure that proper standards of
control are applied (including segregation of duties between the front and
back offices). This is also necessary so that he can communicate effectively
with the local regulators. In the case of Hong Kong, the chief executive of
the local branch of a foreign bank is fully accountable to the MA for the
conduct of all the business conducted by the branch in Hong Kong, even
if he is not functionally responsible for certain parts of the business.
BOARD AND SENIOR HANAGEMENT OVERSIGHT

12. Consistent with its general responsibility for corporate governance, the
board should approve written policies which define the overall framework
within which derivatives activities should be conducted and the risks
controlled. The MA's observations over the last year are that a
comprehensive set of such policies have been lacking in some institutions.
This should be rectified if it has not already been done.
13. The policy framework for derivatives approved by the board may be
general in nature (with the detail to be filled in by senior management).
But the framework should, among other things:
a) establish the institution's overall appetite for taking risk and ensure
that it is consistent with its strategic objectives, capital strength and
management capability. (Appetite for risk can be expressed in terms
of the amount of earnings or capital which the institution is prepared
to put at risk, and the degree of fluctuation in earnings, e.g. from
position-taking, which it is willing to accept);
b) towards this end, define the approved derivatives products and the
authorized derivatives activities, e.g. market-making,
position-taking,
arbitrage, hedging. (The nature of such exposure should be carefully

defined to ensure, for example, that activities described as arbitrage
do not in practice involve the taking of outright positions);
c) detail requirements for the evaluation and approval of new products

or activities. (This requires the board to approve the definition of
what is meant by a "new" product, e.g. a change in the underlying
instrument and hence in the risk, or a change in the capacity in
which the institution trades the product, e.g. as dealer or end-user);
d) provide for sufficient staff resources and other resources to enable
the approved derivatives activities to be conducted in a prudent
manner;
e) ensure appropriate structure and staffing for the key risk control
functions, including internal audit;
f)
establish management responsibilities;
g) identify the various types of risk faced by the institution and establish
a clear and comprehensive set of limits to control these;
h) establish risk measurement methodologies which are consistent with
the nature and scale of the derivatives activities;
i)
require stress testing of positions; and
j)
detail the type and frequency of reports which are to be made to

the board (or committees of the board).
14. The type of reports to be received by the board should include those
which indicate the levels of risk being undertaken by the institution, the
degree of compliance with policies, procedures and limits, and the financial
performance of the various derivatives and trading activities.
Internal
and external audit reports should be reviewed by a board level Audit

Committee and significant issues of concern should be drawn to the
attention of the board. More detailed information should be supplied
to senior management, including that which splits risk exposure, positions
and profitability by regions, business units and products and which analyses
exposure to the various market variables (interest rates, exchange rates
etc.).
15. Branches of foreign banks which trade in derivatives in Hong Kong

should operate within policies and procedures which are approved by
head office and which are consistent with those approved by the board
for the bank as a whole. Regular reports on risk exposure, positions
and profitability should be submitted to head office.
THE IDENTIFICATION OF
16. Institutions should identify the various types of risk to which they are
exposed in their derivatives activities. As set out in the December 1994
Guideline, the main types of risk are:
credit risk
market risk
liquidity risk
operational risk
legal risk
Definitions of these are set out in Annex A.
17. Operational risk, involving the risk of loss from inadequate systems of
control, was a key feature of the Barings and Daiwa Bank cases. The
Daiwa Bank case also demonstrated how an initial loss arising from
failure of controls can be compounded by regulatory r/sk, i.e. the risk of
loss arising from failure to comply with regulatory or legal requirements,
and reputation risk, i.e. the risk of loss arising from adverse public opinion
and damage to reputation. In this context, institution should promptly
inform the MA of any fraud or trading malpractices by staff, particularly
those which could result in financial or reputational loss by the institution
concerned.
Reputation risk and appraisal of counterparties
18. The complexity of some derivatives products and the amount of leverage
involved (which increases the potential for loss as well as profit) may
expose authorized institutions to an additional element of reputation
risk if counterparties who have lost money on derivatives contracts

complain publicly that they were misled about the risks or take legal
action. The authorized institution may also be exposed to credit risk if
the counterparty fails to meet his financial obligations under the contract.
This risk can arise in respect of both corporate and personal customers
(particularly in the private banking area). The MA has come across a
number of the latter cases in 1995.
19. For the institution's own protection, the board should approve clear
written policies to address the issues of selection and appraisal of
counterparties, risk disclosure and handling of disputes and complaints.
Such policies and procedures were lacking in a number of authorized
institutions whose controls were reviewed in 1995. The objective of
such policies and procedures is prudential in nature : to protect an
authorized institution against the credit, reputation and litigation risks that
may arise from a counterparty's inadequate understanding of the nature
and risks of the derivatives transaction.
Such counterparties may not
fully understand their obligations under the derivatives contracts and

therefore may be unable to anticipate and plan for the risks these obligations
entail. This gives rise to a higher than normal risk of default and a
greater potential for litigation and damage to the authorized institution's
reputation. As in the case of an ordinary credit facility, the MA expects
that, as part of its credit analysis, an authorized institution will :
a) analyze the expected impact of the proposed derivatives transaction
on the counterparty;
b) identify whether the proposed transaction is consistent with the
counterparty's policies and procedures with respect to derivatives
transactions, as they are known to the institution; and
c) ensure that the terms of the contract are clear and assess whether
the counterparty is capable of understanding the terms of the contract
and of fulfilling its obligations under the contract.
20. Where the institution considers that a proposed derivatives transaction

is inappropriate for a counterparty, it should inform the counterparty of
its opinion. If the counterparty nonetheless wishes to proceed, the
institution should document its analysis and its discussions with the
counterparty in its files to lessen the chances of litigation in case the
transaction proves unprofitable to the counterparty. If the institution
considers that the counterparty may be financially incapable of meeting
its obligations, or that undue reputation risk may arise from adverse
publicity if the counterparty loses money, the institution should consider
very carefully whether it should enter into the transaction at all.
Institutions should exercise extra care in respect of complicated
derivatives transactions in view of the additional credit, reputation and
litigation risks to which they may give rise.
21. It is important that the institution understands clearly the nature of its
relationship with the counterparty and the obligations which may flow
from that The issue of whether the transaction is an appropriate one
for the counterparty to undertake does not generally arise in respect
of transactions where the institution acts on the instructions of the
client in the capacity of broker or agent. For transactions which the
institution entered into on a principal-to-principal basis, it is recognized
that the transaction is essentially on an arm's length basis and that
counterparties are ultimately responsible for the transactions they choose
to make. However, as noted in paragraph 19 above, the MA considers
that internal policies and procedures are still required to guard against
the credit risk that may arise from the counterparty's inadequate
understanding of the nature and risks of the transaction and to protect
the institution against complaints or litigation on the ground of
misrepresentation in respect of any information which it chooses to
provide to the counterparty. For transactions where an institution has
agreed to assume the role of an advisor, the institution needs to be
aware that it owes the client a duty to tender its advice fully, accurately
and properly.
22. Authorized institutions should also be aware that the degree of complexity
of the transaction and the level of sophistication of the counterparty are
factors which a court may take into account in considering whether the
institution has in practice assumed an advisory role in relation to the
counterparty (even if no explicit agreement to that effect has been
entered into). A wider duty of care may be allowed by the courts in
a- case involving a highly sophisticated transaction and a relatively
unsophisticated counterparty. In those circumstances, there is a possibility
that the courts may be more likely to accept evidence that an authorized
institution had assumed a responsibility to advise the counterparty on
issues such as risk and suitability. It is also noted that where an institution
provides information to enable its counterparties to understand the
nature and risks of a transaction, it should:
a) ensure that the information is accurate;
b) ensure that information in any economic forecast is reasonable, based
on proper research and reasonable grounds; and
c) present the downside and upside of the proposal in a fair and
balanced fashion.
23. To guard against the possibility of misunderstandings, particularly with
private banking customers, all significant communications between the
institution and its customers should be in writing or recorded in meeting
notes. Where it is necessary for an account manager to speak to the
customer by telephone, such conversations should be tape-recorded.
24. Institutions should establish internal procedures for handling customer
disputes and complaints. They should be investigated thoroughly and
handled fairly and promptly. Senior management and the Compliance
Department/Officer should be informed of all customer disputes and
complaints at a regular interval. Cases which are considered material,
e.g. the amount involved is very substantial, should be reported to the
board and the MA.
RISK MEASUREMENT
25. Having identified the various types of risk, the authorized institution
should as far as possible attempt to measure and aggregate them across
all the various trading and non-trading activities in which it is engaged.
26. The risk of loss can be most directly quantified in relation to market risk
and credit risk (though other risks may have an equally or even greater
adverse impact on earnings or capital if not properly controlled). These
two types of risks are clearly related since the extent to which a derivatives
contract is "in the money" as a result of market price movements will
determine the degree of credit risk. This illustrates the need for an
integrated approach to the risk management of derivatives. The methods
used to measure market and credit risk should be related to:
a) the nature, scale and complexity of the derivatives operation;
b) the capability of the data collection systems; and
c) the ability of management to understand the nature, limitations and
meaning of the results produced by the measurement system.
27. The MA has observed that the risk measurement methodologies of a
number of authorized institutions are relatively simple and unsophisticated
despite the fact that they are quite active market participants. In particular,
the use of notional contract amounts to measure the size of market or
credit risk (and to set limits) is insufficient in itself and should be
confined to limited end-users (and even then only on a temporary basis
until a more sophisticated risk measurement system has been devised).
It should be noted however that although more sophisticated
methodologies measure risk more accurately, they also introduce added
assumption and model risk. In particular, the assumption in uvalue-atrisk" models (see below) that changes in market risk factors (such as
interest rates) are normally distributed, may not hold good in practice.
Mark-to-market
28. The measurement process starts with marking to market of positions.
This is necessary to establish the current value of positions and to
record profits and losses in the bank's books. It is essential that the
revaluation process is carried out by an independent risk control unit
or by back office staff which are independent of the risk-takers in the
front office, and that the pricing factors used for revaluation are obtained
from a source which is independent of the front office or are
independently verified. A number of authorized institutions have not
adopted this practice. (Ideally, the methodologies and assumptions used
by the front and back offices for valuing positions should be consistent,
but if not there should be a means of reconciling differences.) For active
dealers and active position-takers, positions should be marked to market
on a daily basis. Where appropriate, intra-day or real-time valuation
should be used for options and complex derivatives portfolios (this may
be performed by dealing room staff provided that the end-of-day positions
are subject to independent revaluations).
29. To ensure that trading portfolios are not overvalued, active dealers and
active position-takers should value their trading portfolios based on
mid-market prices less specific adjustments for expected future costs
such as close-out costs and funding costs. Limited end-users may use
bid and offer prices, applying bid price for long positions and offer price
for short positions.
Measuring market risk
30. The risk measurement system should attempt to assess the probability
of future loss in derivative positions. In order to achieve this objective,
the system should attempt to estimate:
a) the sensitivity of the instruments in the portfolio to changes in the
market factors which affect their value (e.g. interest rates, exchange
rates, equity prices, commodity prices and volatilities); and
b) the tendency of the relevant market factors to change based on past

volatilities and correlations.
3 I. The common methodologies used by authorized institutions in Hong
Kong to measure market risk include notional amounts, month-million,
duration and price value basis point. These methods generally fail fully
to satisfy both the criteria specified in the previous paragraph. The
approach which is best suited for this purpose is "value at risk" which
is recommended by both the Group of Thirty and the Basle Committee.
The value-at-risk approach measures the expected loss in a position or
portfolio that is associated with a given probability and a specified time
horizon. The above methodologies are summarized in Annex B.
32. Active dealers and active position-takers in derivatives are recommended
to adopt the value-at-risk approach, although it is recognized that it will
take time to install the necessary systems. Institutions which trade
derivatives in a different capacity (particularly limited end-users) may use
less sophisticated methodologies but should adopt correspondingly more
conservative trading strategies and limits.
33. Statistical models used to calculate value at risk may use a variety of
different approaches (e.g. variance/covariance, historical simulation, Monte
Carlo simulation). The choice is a matter for the institution concerned,
but where models are to be used for measuring capital adequacy for
supervisory purposes, the Basle Committee has specified that common
minimum standards should be adopted (including a 99% one-tailed
confidence interval and a minimum holding period of 10 days). The
Basle standards are summarized in the attached Annex C.
34. The MA will have regard to these standards in evaluating the value-atrisk models used by authorized institutions in Hong Kong for managing
their trading risk. It is recognized that models used for this purpose
may incorporate assumptions which are different from those
recommended by the Basle Committee. In particular, it is common to
use a holding period of only one day for the measurement of potential
changes in position values. This assumption will however only hold good
for liquid instruments in normal market conditions. For instruments or
markets where there is significant concern about liquidity risk, a longer
holding period should be used (e.g. 10 days) or more conservative limits
should be adopted.
35. The assumptions and variables used in the risk management method
should be fully documented and reviewed regularly by the senior
management, the independent risk management unit (if it exists) and
internal audit.
Stress tests
36. Regardless of the measurement system and assumptions used to calculate
risk on a day-to-day basis, institutions should conduct regular stress
tests to evaluate the exposure under worst-case market scenarios (i.e.
those which are possible but not probable). Stress tests need to cover
a range of factors that could generate extraordinary losses in trading
portfolios or make the control of risk in these portfolios very difficult.
Stress scenarios may take account of such factors as the largest historical
losses actually suffered by the institution and evaluation of the current
portfolio on the basis of extreme assumptions about movements in
interest rates or other market factors or in market liquidity. The results
of the stress testing should be reviewed regularly by senior management
and should be reflected in the policies and limits which are approved by
the board of directors and senior management.
37. All institutions which are active in derivatives in Hong Kong are
recommended to conduct regular stress testing of their portfolios. This
should be carried out both by local risk managers and on a consolidated
basis by the head office risk control function. A significant number of
institutions have not previously done so.
38. The measurement of the market risk in options involves special

considerations because of their non-linear price characteristics. This
means that the price of an option does not necessarily move in a
proportionate relationship with that of the underlying instrument,
principally because of gamma and volatility risk. (A description of these
risks and the other risks in options is given in Annex D.) Measurement
of risk exposure of an options portfolio may therefore require the use
of simulation techniques to calculate, for example, changes in the value
of the options portfolio for various combinations of changes in the
prices of the underlying instruments and changes in volatility. The risk
exposure would be calculated from that combination of price and volatility
change that produced the largest loss in the portfolio. Other more
elaborate simulation techniques may be used. In general, given the
additional complexity of risk measurement and management of options,
the MA would expect active trading in options to be confined to the
more sophisticated authorized institutions.
Measuring credit risk
39. The credit risks of derivatives products have two components: presettlement risk and settlement risk. They should be monitored and
managed separately. A number of authorized institutions have not done
this in respect of settlement risk.
40. Pre-settlement risk is the risk of loss due to a counterparty defaulting
on a contract during the life of a transaction. It varies throughout the
life of the contract and the extent of loss will only be known at the time
of default. To measure pre-settlement risk, authorized institutions should
not rely solely on the notional amounts of derivatives contracts which
provide only an indication of the volume of business outstanding and
bear little relation to the underlying risk of the exposure. That risk is
conditional on the counterparty defaulting and the contract having positive
mark-to-market value to the institution at the time of default. However,
even contracts which presently have a zero or negative mark-to-market

value to the institution (and where there is thus no current loss exposure)
have potential credit risk because the value of the contract can become
positive at any time prior to maturity as a result of market movements.
41. All authorized institutions are encouraged to calculate pre-settlement
risk by summing the current exposure of a contract (i.e. the mark-tomarket value, if positive) and an estimate of the potential change in value
over the remaining life of the contract (the "add-on"). Where legally
enforceable netting agreements are in place, the current exposure for a
given counterparty may be calculated by netting contracts with that
counterparty which have negative mark-to-market value against those
which have positive value. The Guideline on Amendment to the 1988
Capital Accord for Bilateral Netting issued by the MA in February 1995
sets out the conditions under which the MA will be prepared to recognize
netting arrangements for capital adequacy purposes.
42. Active dealers and active position-takers may use their own simulation
techniques to measure potential future exposure, or else may use the
add-ons specified by the Basle Committee for capital adequacy purposes.
A less sophisticated approach is to measure the total pre-settlement
risk by multiplying the notional amount of the contract by percentage
factors which depend on the numbers of years of the contract (the
"original exposure" method). This method is not recommended for
authorized institutions.
43. Settlement risk arises where securities or cash are exchanged and can
amount to the full value of the amounts exchanged. In general, the timeframe for this risk is quite short and arises only where there is no
delivery against payment.
LIMITS
44. A comprehensive set of limits should be put in place to control the
market, credit and liquidity risk of the institution in derivatives and other
traded instruments. These should be integrated as far as possible with
the overall institution-wide limits for these risks.
For example, the
credit exposure for a particular counterparty arising from derivatives

should be aggregated with all other credit exposures for that counterparty
and compared with the credit limit for that counterparty. As noted
earlier, the aggregate limits for the amount of risk to be incurred by the
institution in its derivatives activity and the broad structure of the limits
should be approved by the board. The aggregate limits can then be
allocated and sub-allocated by management. The system of limits should
include procedures for the reporting and approval of exceptions to
limits. It is essential that limits should be rigorously enforced and that
significant and persistent breaches of limits should be reported to senior
management and fully investigated.
Market risk limits
45. Market risk limits should be established at different levels of the institution,
i.e. the institution as a whole, the various risk-taking units, trading desk
heads and individual traders. It may also be appropriate to supplement
these with limits for particular products.
In determining how market
risk limits are established and allocated, management should take into
account factors such as the following:
a) past performance of the trading unit;
b) experience and expertise of the traders;
c) level of sophistication of the pricing, valuation and measurement
systems;
d) the quality of internal controls;
e) the projected level of trading activity having regard to the liquidity
of particular products and markets; and
f)
the ability of the operations systems to settle the resultant trades.
46. Some commonly used market risk limits are : notional or volume limits,
stop loss limits, gap or maturity limits, options limits and value-at-risk
limits. These are described in Annex D. The selection of limits should
have regard to the nature, size and complexity of the derivatives operation
and to the type of risk measurement system. In general, the overall
amount of market risk being run by the institution is best controlled by
value-at risk limits. These provide senior management with an easily
understood way of monitoring and controlling the amount of capital and
earnings which the institution is putting at risk through its trading activities.
The limits actually used to control risk on a day-to-day basis in the
dealing room or at individual trading desks may be expressed in terms
other than value at risk, but should provide reasonable assurance that
the overall value-at-risk limits set for the institution will not be exceeded.
Regular calculation of the value at risk in the trading portfolio should
therefore be conducted to ensure that this is indeed the case.
47. It should be emphasized that no means of expressing limits can give
absolute assurance that greater than expected losses will not occur.
Even the value-at-risk approach, while recommended for active dealers
and active position-takers, has its own limitations in providing protection
against unpredictable events. Limits set by the institution on this basis
should therefore cater for such events, taking into account the results
of the stress tests run by the institution (see above). Other types of
limits are less sophisticated than value at risk and are generally not
sufficient in isolation (unless only a limited and conservative trading
strategy is being pursued), but they may be useful for certain purposes
and when used in conjunction with other measures.
48. Stop loss limits may be useful for triggering specific management action (e.g.
to close out the position) when a certain level of unrealized losses are
reached. They do not however control the potential size of loss which is
inherent in the position or portfolio (i.e. the value at risk) and which may
be greater than the stop loss limit. They will thus not necessarily prevent
losses if the position cannot be exited (e.g. because of market {(liquidity).
Consideration must be given to the period of time over which the unrealised
loss is to be controlled: too long a period (e.g. a year) may allow large
unrealized losses to build up before management action is triggered. Limits
for shorter periods may be advisable (e.g. on a monthly basis).
49. Limits based on the notional amount or volume of derivatives contracts
do not provide a reasonable proxy for market (or credit) risk and thus
should not generally be acceptable on a stand-alone basis. (A number
of authorized institutions have been relying solely on notional limits.)
Volume limits can however have some use in controlling operational risk
(i.e. as regards the processing and settling of trades) and also liquidity
and concentration risk. Such a risk might arise for example, as it did in
the case of Barings, from having a substantial part of the open interest
in exchange-traded derivatives (particularly in less liquid contracts.) The
Barings case also illustrates that for activities such as arbitrage, it is
necessary to set limits on the gross as well as the net positions in order
to control over-trading and limit the amount of funding which is required
for margin payments. (A number of authorized institutions have not
been monitoring the growth of gross positions.)
50. It may be appropriate to set limits on particular products or maturities
(as well as on portfolios) in order to reduce market and liquidity risk
which would arise from concentrations in these. (Some institutions
have not been doing this.) Similarly, options risk can be controlled by
concentration limits based on strike price and expiration date. This
reduces the potential impact on earnings and cash flow of a large amount
of options being exercised at the same time.
Credit limits
51. Institutions should establish both pre-settlement credit limits and
settlement credit limits (not all have been doing this). The former
should be based on the credit-worthiness of the counterparty in much
the same way as for traditional credit lines. The size of the limits should
take into account the sophistication of the risk measurement system: if
SMI
notional amounts are used (which is not recommended), the limits should
be correspondingly more conservative.
52. It is important that authorized institutions should establish separate limits
for settlement risk. The amount of exposure due to settlement risk
often exceeds the credit exposure arising from pre-settlement risk because
settlement of derivatives transactions may involve the exchange of the
total value of the instrument or principal cash flow. Settlement limits
should have regard to the efficiency and reliability of the relevant settlement
systems, the period for which the exposure will be outstanding, the
credit quality of the counterparty and the institution's own capital adequacy.
Liquidity limits
53. The cash flow/funding liquidity risk in derivatives can be dealt with by
incorporating derivatives into the institution's overall liquidity policy and,
in particular, by including derivatives within the structure of the maturity
mismatch limits. A particular issue is the extent to which institutions
take account of the right which may have been granted to counterparties
to terminate a derivatives contract under certain specified circumstances,
thus triggering an unexpected need for funds. (The results of the MA's
survey conducted in early 1995 suggested that a significant proportion
of institutions do not take account of such early termination clauses in
planning their liquidity needs.)
54. As the Barings' case demonstrates, it is also necessary for institutions to
take into account the funding requirements which may arise because of
the need to make margin payments in respect of exchange-traded
derivatives.The institution should have the ability to distinguish between
margin calls which are being made on behalf of clients (and monitor the
resultant credit risk on the clients) and those which arise from proprietary
trades. Where the institution is called upon to provide significant funding
in respect of derivatives activities undertaken in a subsidiary, the institution
should carefully monitor the amount involved against limits for that
subsidiary and investigate rapid growth in the subsidiary's funding needs.
55. As noted earlier, the market or product liquidity risk that arises from the
possibility that the institution will not be able to exit derivatives positions
at a reasonable cost, can be mitigated by setting limits on concentrations
in particular markets, exchanges, products and maturities.
INDEPENDENT
CONTROL
56. There should be a means within each authorized institution of

independently monitoring and controlling the various risks in derivatives
(and other trading activities). The precise way in which the risk control
function is organized in each institution will vary depending on the nature,
size and complexity of its derivatives operation. Different types of risks
may be monitored and controlled by different departments and units.
For example, the credit risk in derivatives may be subject to the oversight
of that department of the institution which monitors its credit risk as a
whole.
As noted earlier, however, the inter-relationship between the
different types of risks needs to be taken into account. (An Asset and
Liability Committee of the board may be a suitable forum for doing this.)
57. Institutions which are active dealers or active position-takers in derivatives
should maintain a separate unit which is responsible for monitoring and
controlling the market risk in derivatives. This should report directly to the
board (or Asset and Liability Committee) or to senior management who
are not directly responsible for trading activities. Such management should
have the authority to enforce both reductions of positions taken by individual
traders and in the bank's overall risk exposure. Where the size of the
institution or its involvement in derivatives activities does not justify a
separate unit dedicated to derivative activities, the function may be carried
out by support personnel in the back office (or in a "middle office")
provided that such personnel have the necessary independence, expertise,
resources and support from senior management to do the job effectively.
58. Whatever form the risk control function takes, it is essential that it is
distanced from the control and influence of the trading function. In
particular, it is unacceptable for risk control functions of the type described
Qy]
in paragraphs 59 and 60 to be carried out by dealing room staff (the MA

has come across a number of cases where this has been the practice).
59. The minimum risk control functions which should be performed include
the following:
a) the monitoring of market risk exposures against limits and the
reporting of exceptions to management outside the trading area;
b) the marking-to-market of risk exposures and the performance of
reconciliation of positions and profit/loss between the front and
back offices;
c) the preparation of management reports, including daily profit/loss
results and gross and net positions; and
d) the monitoring of credit exposures to individual counterparties against
limits and the reporting of exceptions to management outside the
trading area (as noted earlier this function may be performed by the
credit department).
60. For institutions which are active traders in derivatives, and in particular
those which wish to satisfy the Basle Committee's criteria for the use
of internal models to measure the capital requirements for market risk,
the risk control function should also be actively involved in the design,
implementation and ongoing assessment of the institution's risk
management system, and particularly its internal model. This will typically
be done at head office level (perhaps with the assistance of local risk
managers) and will include the following:
a) the development of risk management policies (including policies to
ensure system security) and limits for approval by the board and
senior management;
b) the design and testing of stress scenarios;
c) the regular back-testing of the measure of market risk (e.g. that
generated by the internal value-at-risk model) against actual daily
changes in portfolio value;

d) the review and approval of pricing and valuation models used by the
front and back offices, and the development of reconciliation
procedures if different systems are used; and
e) the generation of reports for the board and senior management
covering such aspects as trends in aggregate risk exposure, the
adequacy of and compliance with policies and risk limits and risk/
return information.
61. The risk management system and the effectiveness and independence of
the risk control unit should themselves be subject to regular review by
internal audit.
OPERATIONAL CONTROLS
62. Operational risk arises as a result of inadequate internal controls, human
error or management failure. This is a particular risk in derivatives
activities because of the complexity and rapidly evolving nature of some
of the products. The nature of the controls in place to manage operational
risk must be commensurate with the scale and complexity of the
derivatives activity being undertaken. As noted earlier, volume limits
may be used to ensure that the number of transactions being undertaken
does not outstrip the capacity of the support systems to handle them.
Segregation of duties
63. Segregation of duties is necessary to prevent unauthorized and fraudulent
practices. This has a number of detailed aspects but the fundamental
principle is that there should be clear separation, both functionally and
physically, between the front office which is responsible for the conduct
of trading operations and the back office which is responsible for
processing the resultant trades. Institutions must avoid a situation where
the back office becomes subordinate to the traders as was the case with
Barings. This gave rise to the situation where the head trader of the
Singapore futures operation was able both to initiate trades and to

control the way in which they were recorded and settled.
64. The MA has come across a number of cases in authorized institutions
where segregation of duties is incomplete. For example:
a) the mark-to-market process is performed by the front office instead
of the back office (or separate risk control unit);
b) the data used for marking to market are not obtained from sources
independent of the front office or are not independently verified;
c) reconciliation of the back office position reports to the front office
records are not reviewed by personnel independent of the front
office operations;
d) incoming confirmations of deals are received in the first instance by
dealers instead of the back office;
e) dealing reports and profit/loss reports are either prepared by dealers
or routed via dealers to senior management;
f)
limit monitoring is not carried out by personnel who are independent

of the dealing room; and
g) there is a lack of physical separation of the front and back offices.

65. The MA considers that such practices are unacceptable and has requested
the institutions concerned to take remedial measures. In some cases,
it has been argued that the deficiencies are not high risk because of the
existence of compensating human and other controls and because of
conservative trading strategies. While this may be true under normal
circumstances, the lack of proper systems controls does create loopholes
which can be exploited by unscrupulous individuals. The Barings and
Daiwa Bank cases show that trust placed in key individuals may be
abused and that it is dangerous to assume that a fundamental weakness
in controls can be mitigated by other, more superficial, checks and balances.
Shortages of physical space or skilled personnel should not be used as
an excuse to override normal control considerations.
66. A basic and essential safeguard against abuse of trust by an individual is

to insist that all staff should take a minimum period of annual leave (say
2 weeks) each year. This makes it more difficult to conceal frauds in the
absence of the individual concerned. All institutions are recommended
to follow this practice.
Policies and procedures
67. Policies and procedures should be established and documented to cover
the internal controls which apply at various stages in the work flow of
processing and monitoring trades. Apart from segregation of duties,
these include:
* trade entry and transaction documentation
* confirmation of trades
* settlement and disbursement
* reconciliations
* revaluation
* exception reports
* accounting treatment.
68. A checklist of some of the key controls under these headings is given
in Annex E. One important aspect of reconciliations as revealed by the
Barings case is that major unreconciled differences (e.g. between margin
payments paid to a futures exchange by the institution on behalf of
clients and payments received from clients, or between the institution's
balances/positions as recorded in its own accounts and in those of the
exchange) should be fully and promptly investigated.
69. Some of the deficiencies identified by the post-Barings review of institutions'
internal controls by auditors and the MA's treasury visits include:
a) lack of formally documented procedures that cover all aspects of
internal controls for both the front office and back office;
b) no tape recording of telephone calls made by the dealers;
c) dealing slips were not pre-numbered or time stamped, and there

was no record of the nature of each trade to provide an audit trail;
d) no formal lists of authorized counterparties (and limits for such
counterparties) and brokers; and
e) reconciliation of daily positions to nostro bank statements was not
documented.
Contingency plan
70. Plans should be in place to provide contingency systems and operations
support in the case of a natural disaster or systems failure. These
should include emergency back-up for dealing functions as well as critical
support functions. Contingency plans should be reviewed and tested on
a regular basis.
71. Internal audit is an important part of the internal control process. Among
the tasks of the internal audit function should be:
a) to review the adequacy and effectiveness of the overall risk
management system, including compliance with policies, procedures
and limits;
b) to review the adequacy and test the effectiveness of the various
operational controls (including segregation of duties) and staff's
compliance with the established policies and procedures; and
c) to investigate unusual occurrences such as significant breaches of limits,
unauthorized trades and unreconciled valuation or accounting differences.
72. The greater the size, complexity and geographical coverage of the
derivatives business, the greater the need for experienced internal auditors
with strong technical abilities and expertise. The MA considers that
some internal audit functions of authorized institutions have not possessed
these qualities in relation to derivatives.
73. It is essential that the internal audit function should have the necessary
status within the organization for its recommendations to carry weight.
The head of internal audit should if necessary have direct access to the
board, audit committee and the chief executive. Line management must
not be able to water down the findings of internal audit reviews.
74. In preparing internal audit reports, major control weaknesses should be
highlighted and a management action plan to remedy the weaknesses
should be agreed with a timetable. As the Barings case illustrates, it is
essential that major weaknesses are remedied quickly (the dangers posed
by the lack of segregation of duties in Singapore had been identified in
an internal audit review carried out in mid-1994, but the situation had
not been rectified by the time of the collapse). While implementation
is the responsibility of management, internal audit should conduct followup visits within a short space of time in the case of significant weaknesses.
Failure of management to implement recommendations within an agreed
timeframe should be reported to the Audit Committee.
Hong Kong Monetary Authority

March 1996
Annex A
OF
1. CREDIT
Credit risk is the risk of loss due to a counterparty's failure to perform on
an obligation to the institution. Credit risk in derivative products comes in
two forms :
Pre-settlement risk is the risk of loss due to a counterparty defaulting
on a contract during the life of a transaction. The level of exposure
varies throughout the life of the contract and the extent of losses will
only be known at the time of default.
Settlement risk is the risk of loss due to the counterparty's failure to
perform on its obligation after an institution has performed on its obligation
under a contract on the settlement date. Settlement risk frequently arises
in international transactions because of time zone differences. This risk is
only present in transactions that do not involve delivery versus payment
and generally exists for a very short time (less than 24 hours).
2. MARKET RISK
Market risk is the risk of loss due to adverse changes in the market value
(the price) of an instrument or portfolio of instruments. Such exposure
occurs with respect to derivative instruments when changes occur in market
factors such as underlying interest rates, exchange rates, equity prices, and
commodity prices or in the volatility of these factors.
3. LIQUIDITY RISK
Liquidity risk is the risk of loss due to failure of an institution to meet its
funding requirements or to execute a transaction at a reasonable price.
Institutions involved in derivatives activity face two types of liquidity risk :
market liquidity risk and funding liquidity risk.
Market liquidity risk is the risk that an institution may not be able to
exit or offset positions quickly, and in sufficient quantities, at a reasonable
price. This inability may be due to inadequate market depth in certain
products (e.g. exotic derivatives, long-dated options), market disruption,
or inability of the bank to access the market (e.g. credit down-grading
of the institution or of a major counterparty).
Funding liquidity risk is the potential inability of the institution to
meet funding requirements, because of cash flow mismatches, at a
reasonable cost. Such funding requirements may arise from cash flow
mismatches in swap books, exercise of options, and the implementation
of dynamic hedging strategies.
4.
Operational risk is the risk of loss occurring as a result of inadequate
systems and control, deficiencies in information systems, human error, or
management failure. Derivatives activities can pose challenging operational
risk issues because of the complexity of certain products and their continual
evolution.
5. LEGAL
Legal risk is the risk of loss arising from contracts which are not legally
enforceable (e.g. the counterparty does not have the power or authority to
enter into a particular type of derivatives transaction) or documented
correctly.
6.
Regulatory risk is the risk of loss arising from failure to comply with regulatory
or legal requirements.
7. REPUTATION RISK
Reputation risk is the risk of loss arising from adverse public opinion and
damage to reputation.
Annex B
I.
OR
OF
This simply refers to the notional amount of the contract and is the most
basic form of risk measurement. The main advantage of this measure is its
simplicity which allows net and gross positions to be computed easily and
quickly. It is useful as one of the means for limiting business volume, and
liquidity and settlement risks.
However, the notional amount only provides an indication of the volume of
business outstanding and bear little relation to the underlying risks of the
exposure as it does not take account of cash flows, price sensitivity or price
volatility. Also, for sophisticated institutions, the nominal measurement method
does not allow an accurate aggregation of risks across all instruments.This
method should not be used on a stand-alone basis.
2.
This is the product of the notional amount of the contract expressed in
millions and the remaining term of the contract expressed in number of months.
For example, the month-million of an interest rate contract with an amount of
$60 million and a remaining term of three months is calculated as follows:
3 months x $60 million = $180 month-million.
This method is commonly used by market participants for measuring exposure
in interest rate products. It is simple in nature and is better than the
notional amount as it also takes account of the remaining maturity of the
contract which is a relevant factor in assessing the market risk of interest
rate products. However, similar to the nominal measurement method, it
does not take account of the underlying instrument's cash flow, price sensitivity
or price volatility.
Furthermore, contracts with the same month-million may have significantly

different risk exposures. For example, an interest rate contract with an
amount of $60 million and a remaining term of three months (3 months x
$60 million = $180 month-million) has the same month-million of another
interest rate instrument with an amount of $3 million and a remaining term
of five years (60 months x $3 million = $180 month-million). Although
these two instruments have the same month-million, their risk profiles (shortterm vs long term) are quite different and should be managed differently.
This method should not therefore be used on a stand-alone basis by active
derivatives participants.
3. DURATION
Duration is a measure of the sensitivity of the present value or price of a
financial instrument to a change in interest rates. Conceptually, duration is
the average time to the receipt of cash flows weighted by the present value
of each of the cash flows in the series. This measurement technique calculates
price sensitivities across different instruments and converts them to a
common denominator. Duration analysis can estimate the impact of interest
rate changes on the present value of the cash flows generated by a financial
institution's portfolio. For example, if the modified duration (duration divided
by I + yield) of a security is 5, the price of the security will decrease by
5 percent approximately, if the related yield increases by one percent.
The Price Value Basis Point (PVBP) measurement is a common application
of the duration concept. This methodology assesses the change in present
value of a financial instrument or a portfolio of instruments due to a one
basis point change in interest rates. PVBP is calculated by multiplying the
price of the instrument by its modified duration and then by a factor of
0.0001. For example, a one basis point increase in yield would decrease the
price of a bond with a modified duration of 5 from 100 to 99.95. PVBP is
a useful tool for sensitivity analysis of a position or a portfolio. It also
provides a quick tool for traders to evaluate their profit and loss due to a
basis point movement in interest rates.
However, the duration method also has certain limitations. Duration methods
focus on sensitivity analysis but not probability analysis. They do not tell
how the value of a security or a portfolio of securities would be likely to
change based on past experience. Also, for large rate movements (by more
than one percent), duration tends to provide inaccurate results as the true
relationship between a change in price and a change in interest rate is not
linear.This can be remedied to some extent by combining duration measures
with convexity measures (measuring the rate of change of duration as yield
changes).
4. VALUE AT
This is a sophisticated method increasingly used by major market participants
to assess the risk of their whole trading book. The "value at risk" (VAR)
approach uses probability analysis based on historical price movements of
the relevant financial instruments and an appropriate confidence interval to
assess the likely loss that the institution may experience given a specified
holding period. It combines both probability analysis and sensitivity analysis.
The following is a simplified illustration of the concept:
A bank has an open USD/DEM position of $ I million.The historical data indicates
that the one-day volatility during an adverse USD/DEM exchange rate movement
is 0.08 percent. The value at risk based on one standard deviation is:
$1 million x 1(0.08 percent) = $800
The value at risk based on three standard deviations is:
$1 million x 3(0.08 percent) = $2,400
This example can be interpreted that there is an approximately 16 percent
probability (one standard deviation) based on the past price movement
experience that the bank may lose $800 or more overnight, and approximately
0.14 percent probability (three standard deviation) the bank may lose $2,400
or more. Additionally, the longer the holding period that is used, for example,
five or ten days instead of overnight, the larger the value at risk.
There are three main VAR approaches: variance/covariance, historical

simulation and Monte Carlo simulation. Under the variance/covariance
approach, an institution uses summary statistics on the magnitude of past
price movements in the relevant market factors (interest rates, exchange
rates, etc.), the estimated sensitivity of the positions/portfolio to movement
in market factors, and correlations between price movements to estimate
likely potential losses in its portfolio of trading book positions. Under the
historical simulation approach, an institution bases its expectation of potential
future losses on calculations of the losses that would have been sustained
on that book in the past using data on past price movements. Under the
Monte Carlo simulation approach, an institution uses models to generate
many scenarios randomly in order to obtain the distribution of portfolio
values to estimate the potential future losses.
To derive the value at risk, the institution needs to determine the confidence
interval, minimum holding period and minimum sample period for calculating
volatilities and correlations. The Basle Committee has specified the standards
that should be adopted by banks which use internal models for calculating
the capital requirements under its market risk regime. These are set out
in Annex C.
Annex C
BY
THE
RISK
FOR
TO
I. QUANTITATIVE STANDARDS
Value at risk (VAR) should be computed daily.
A 99% one-tailed confidence interval should be used.

Minimum holding period (or liquidation period) would be ten trading
days. However, banks may use the VAR numbers calculated according to
shorter holding periods scaled up to ten days. In the case of options
positions or positions that display option-like characteristics, the scaleup approach is allowed as an interim measure only. Banks with such
positions are expected to ultimately move towards the application of
the minimum holding period often trading days. In allowing banks to use
the scale-up approach for options positions, supervisory authorities may
require these banks to adjust their capital measure for options risk
through other methods, e.g. periodic simulations or stress testing.
The minimum sample period for calculating volatilities and correlations

is one year. For banks that use a weighting scheme or other methods
for the historical observation period, the "effective" observation period
must be at least one year (i.e. the weighted average time lag of the
individual observations cannot be less than six months).
Volatilities and correlations data should be updated at least quarterly

and whenever market prices are subject to material changes.
Correlation may be used to offset VAR both within and across broad
risk categories (e.g. interest rates, exchange rates, equity prices and
commodity prices).
Options risk should be captured; risk associated with volatilities of the

rates and prices (vega risk) should be accounted for. For complex
option portfolios, term structures of volatilities should be used as the
risk factors.
*
Each bank must meet, on a daily basis, a capital requirement as the

higher of (i) its previous day's VAR number and (ii) an average of the
daily VAR of the preceding sixty business day multiplied by a multiplication
factor (of at least 3) set by its supervisor.
Separate capital charge to cover specific risk of traded debt and equity
securities, to the extent that this risk is not incorporated into the models,
is required.
2. SPECIFICATION OF MARKET RISK FACTORS

An important part of a bank's internal market measurement system is the
specification of an appropriate set of market risk factors, i.e. the market
rates and prices that affect the value of the bank's trading positions. The
risk factors used in the internal risk management model should be sufficient
to capture the risks inherent in an institution's portfolio of on- and offbalance sheet trading positions. In specifying the risk factors, institutions
should take into account the following:
Interest rate based Instruments
*
The yield curve should be divided into various maturity segments to

capture the variation in the volatility of interest rates along the curve.
There will typically be one risk factor per segment. For exposures to
interest rate movements in the major currencies and markets, a minimum
of six risk factors (i.e. six maturity segments) is recommended. However,
the number of risk factors should ultimately be driven by the nature of
the institution's trading strategies.
The system must incorporate separate risk factors to capture spread

risk e.g. difference between bonds and swaps, at various points along the
yield curve.
Exchange rate based Instruments
There should be one risk factor (i.e. the foreign exchange rate against
the domestic currency) for each currency in which the bank has a
significant exposure.
Equity based instruments
There should be a risk factor corresponding to each equity market in

which the bank holds significant positions.
The minimum standard is to have one broad-based equity index as a risk
factor in a market, and use "beta-equivalents" to relate it to individual
stocks. However, more than one index could be used (for example
sector indices) in a single market.
The level of sophistication of the modelling technique should correspond

to the bank's exposure to the overall market as well as its concentration
in individual equity issues in that market.
Commodity based instruments
For limited positions in commodity-based instruments, it might be

acceptable to use a single risk factor for a relatively broad class of
commodities (e.g. a single risk factor for all class of oils).
For more active trading, the model must account for the variation in the
"convenience yield" (i.e. the benefits from direct ownership of the physical
commodity e.g. the ability to profit from temporary market shortages)
between derivatives positions such as forwards and swaps and cash
positions in the commodity.
Annex D
1. NOTIONAL OR VOLUME LIMITS

Limits based on the notional amount of derivatives contracts are the most
basic and simplest form of limits for controlling the risks of derivatives
transactions. They are useful in limiting transaction volume, and liquidity and
settlement risks. However, these limits cannot take account of price sensitivity
and volatility and say nothing about the actual level of risk (in capital or
earnings terms) faced by the institution. Derivatives participants should not
therefore use these limits as a stand-alone tool to control market risk.
2. STOP LOSS LIMITS

These limits are established to avoid unrealized loss in a position from
exceeding a specified level. When these limits are reached, the position will
either be liquidated or hedged. Typical stop loss limits include those relating
to accumulated unrealized losses for a day, a week or a month.
Some institutions also establish management action trigger (MAT) limits in
addition to stop loss limits. These are for early warning purposes. For
example, management may establish a MAT limit at 75 percent of the stop
loss limit. When the unrealized loss reaches 75 percent of the stop loss
limit, management will be alerted of the position and may trigger certain
management actions, such as close monitoring of the position, reducing or
early closing out the position before it reaches the stop loss limits.
The above loss triggers complement other limits, but they are generally not
sufficient by themselves. They are not anticipatory; they are based on
unrealized losses to date and do not measure the potential earnings at risk
based on market characteristics. They will not prevent losses larger than
the stop loss limits if ft becomes impossible to close out positions, e.g.
because of market illiquidity.
yyg
3.
GAP OR MATURITY BAND LIMITS
These limits are designed to control loss exposure by controlling the volume
or amount of the derivatives that mature or are repriced in a given time
period. For example, management can establish gap limits for each maturity
band of 3 months, 6 months, 9 months, one year, etc. to avoid maturities
concentrating in certain maturity bands. Such limits can be used to reduce
the volatility of derivatives revenue by staggering the maturity and/or repricing
and thereby smoothing the effect of changes in market factors affecting
price. Maturity limits can also be useful for liquidity risk control and the
repricing limits can be used for interest rate management.
Similar to notional and stop loss limits, gap limits can be useful to supplement
other limits, but are not sufficient to be used in isolation as they do not
provide a reasonable proxy for the market risk exposure which a particular
derivatives position may present to the institution.
4. VALUE AT RISK LIMITS

These limits are designed to restrict the amount of potential loss from
certain types of derivatives products or the whole trading book to levels
(or percentages of capital or earnings) approved by the board and senior
management. To monitor compliance with the limits, management calculates
the current market value of positions and then uses statistical modelling
techniques to assess the probable loss (within a certain level of confidence)
given historical changes in market factors (details are set out in Annex B).
The advantage of value at risk (VAR) limits is that they are related directly
to the amount of capital or earnings which are at risk Among other things,
they are therefore more readily understood by the board and senior
management. The level ofVAR limits should reflect the maximum exposures
authorized by the board and senior management, the quality and sophistication
of the risk measurement systems and the performance of the models used
in assessing potential loss by comparing projected and actual results. One
drawback in the use of such models is that they are only as good as the
assumptions on which they are based (and the quality of the data which has
been used to calculate the various volatilities, correlations and sensitivities).
5. OPTIONS LIMITS
These are specifically designed to control the risks of options. Options
limits should include Delta, Gamma, Vega, Theta and Rho limits.
Delta is a measure of the amount an option's price would be expected to
change for a unit change in the price of the underlying instrument.
Gamma is a measure of the amount delta would be expected to change in
response to a unit change in the price of the underlying instrument.
Vega is a measure of the amount an option's price would be expected to
change in response to a unit change in the price volatility of the underlying
instrument.
Theta is a measure of the amount an option's price would be expected to
change in response to changes in the option's time to expiration.
Rho is a measure of the amount an option's price would be expected to
change in response to changes in interest rates.
Annex E
ON
This Annex sets out recommended best practices in the following major
areas of operational controls:
A. Segregation of duties
B. Trade entry and transaction documentation
C. Confirmation procedures
D. Settlement and disbursement procedures
E. Reconciliation procedures
F. Revaluation procedures
G. Exceptions reports
H. Accounting procedures
A. SEGREGATION OF DUTIES
There should be clear segregation, functionally and physically, between
the front office and back office.
Job descriptions and reporting lines of all front office and back office
personnel should support the principle of segregation of duties outlined
in the institution's policies.
The process of executing trades should be separated from that of
confirming, reconciling, revaluing, or settling these transactions or
controlling the disbursement of funds, securities or other payments,
such as margins, commissions, fees, etc.
Individuals initiating transactions should not confirm trades, revalue
positions for profit and loss calculation, approve or make general
ledger entries, or resolve disputed trades.
Access to deal recording, trade processing and general ledger systems
should be restricted by using physical access controls e.g. user ID and
password codes and terminal access controls.
* There should be a unit independent of the trading room responsible

for reviewing daily reports to detect excesses in approved trading and
credit limits.
B. TRADE ENTRY AND TRANSACTION DOCUMENTATION

* Management should ensure that procedures are in place to provide a
clear and fully documented audit trail of derivatives transactions. These
procedures should be adequate to inform management of trading
activities and to facilitate detection of non-compliance with policies
and procedures. The information on derivatives transactions should
be in a format that can be readily reviewed by the institution's
management as well as by internal and external auditors.
* There should be sufficient accounting and other records that capture
and record on a timely basis and in an orderly fashion every transaction
which the institution enters into to explain:
-
its nature and purpose (e.g. trading or hedging);

any asset and/or liability, actual and contingent, which respectively
arises or may arise from it; and
- any income and/or expenditure, current and/or deferred, which
arises from it.
* All derivatives transactions should be sequentially controlled (e.g. the
use of prenumbered dealing slips), timed and tracked by tape recording
of dealers1 telephones to ensure that all deals are accounted for and
to provide an audit trail for deals effected. Sequence of the
prenumbered forms should be reviewed and accounted for periodically.
Tape recording equipment should not be accessible by the dealers and
should remain under the control of management.
* To establish valid contracts, records of original entries should capture
sufficient details, including:
IBS
Time and date of execution.

Name of dealer executing transactions.
Name of staff entering transaction data (if different from dealer).
Name of counterparty.
Type of instrument, price, and amount.

Settlement or effective date.
Payment or settlement instructions.
Brokers1 fees or commissions and other expenses.
Dealers should maintain a position sheet for each product traded and
continuous position reports in the dealing room. Dealers' position
reports should be submitted to management for review at the end of
each trading day.
Daily position report should be prepared from the institution's
processing system/general ledger by back office personnel. The reports
should include all transactions and be reconciled daily to the dealer's
position reports.
Every transaction should be updated (i.e. mark to market) in the
calculation of market and credit risk limits.
There should be sufficient transaction documentation to support limit
reporting and a proper audit trail. A unit independent of the front
office should be responsible for reviewing daily reports to detect
excesses of approved trading limits.
There should be an approved list of brokers, counterparties and explicit
policies and procedures for dispute resolution.
Dealers should adhere to stated limits. If limit excesses arise,
management approval should be obtained and documented prior to
execution of the transaction. There should be adequate records of
limit excesses.
Deals should be transacted at market rates. The use of off-market
rates as a base for the renewal of maturing derivatives contracts
should be on an exception basis and subject to the following conditions:
-
it is permitted in accordance with stated policies and procedures

of the institution and the justification and approval of such
transactions are documented;
the customer had specifically requested it;

it was known to the institution that the customer did so with full
internal authority, being aware of the possibility that a loss could
be concealed thereby; and
the relevant contracts will be marked to market so that the
discounted value of the contract and the loss arising from using the
off-market rate can be shown in the institution's accounts and its
returns to the MA.
C. CONFIRMATION PROCEDURES
* The method of confirmation used should provide a documentation
trail that supports the institution's position in the event of disputes.
* Outgoing confirmations should be initiated no later than one business
day after the transaction date. Any use of same-day telephone
confirmations should be taped-recorded and followed with written
confirmations. Oral confirmation will be accepted only if the lines are
taped and agreed with counterparty in advance.
* Outgoing confirmations should contain all relevant contract details
and be delivered to a department independent of the trading unit of
the counterparty. Follow-up confirmations should be sent if no
corresponding, incoming confirmation is received within a limited
number of days after the contract is effected. The accounting/filing
system should be able to identify booked contracts for which no
incoming confirmations have been received. Records of outstanding
unconfirmed transactions should be kept and reviewed by management
on a regular basis.
* Incoming confirmations should be delivered to the designated personnel
who are responsible for reconciling confirmations with trading records
and not to trading personnel.
* All incoming confirmations should be verified with file copies of contracts/
dealing slips and-for authenticity. All discrepancies should be promptly
identified and investigated by an officer independent of the trading
function for resolution. They should also be tracked, aged, and reported
to management. Trends by type should be identified and addressed.
D. SETTLEMENT AND DISBURSEMENT PROCEDURES

Specific procedures should be established for the initiation of, and
authority for, fund transfer.
No one person in a fund transfer operation (e.g. SWIFT) should be
responsible for the processing, verifying and approving of a request.
Only authorised persons with appropriate segregation of duties should
have access to fund transmission systems, cash books, account
information, and terminal facilities.
Reasons underlying requests for funds should be analysed and
documented.
Settlement staff should be alert to any unusual
transactions and immediately report them to management. They should

distinguish between payments made on behalf of the institution and
those on behalf of clients.
* Institutions must determine the authenticity of fund transfer requests
before payments are released. This may include direct telephone
confirmation with the counterparty in addition to the verification of
test keys.
* In case test keys are used to verify the authenticity of requests for
transfer of funds, such test keys should be separated into two parts
(fixed and variable) and reset with the counterparty on at least a
yearly basis. Each part should be kept by a different staff. No test key
holders should be allowed to access the telex room.
* Payments should be properly authorised prior to disbursement of funds.
Dual approvals should be required for large payments to help ensure
validity and correctness, whether released manually or via SWIFT, tested
telex or similar transmission systems. Access to the transmission system
should be properly approved and granted on a need-to-perform basis
and periodically reviewed by line management. In addition, adequate
procedures should be established to control password maintenance,
Mm
addition and deletion of operators, and other system changes.

Institutions should retain logs recording transfer request information,
assign sequential numbers to incoming and outgoing messages, and
copies of all messages received on fund transmission systems. At the
end of each business day, request forms should be compared to the
actual transfer to ensure that all transfers are properly authorised and
carried out.
There should be clear policy on the appropriateness of accepting
requests for "third-party payment", i.e. payment instructions to the
account of an individual, institution or corporation other than that of
the counterparty to the transaction. To ensure the accuracy and
authenticity of all payment instructions for payments to and from
counterparties, in particular those involving third party names,
management may adopt various measures including:
-
Requiring an authenticated confirmation of the payment instruction

on the transaction date;
Requiring the counterparty to submit a list of individuals authorised

to transact business and to confirm deals;
Confirming by telephone all deals on the settlement date directly

with the counterparty; and
Rejecting payment instructions to account numbers without

corresponding names.
Daily independent reconciliation of transferred funds with nostro

accounts and general ledger is an essential control for detection of
errors or misapplications of funds.
E. RECONCILIATION PROCEDURES
All pertinent data, reports, and systems should be reconciled on a timely
basis to ensure that the institution's official books agree with dealers'
records. At the minimum, the following reports should be reconciled:
-
Dealer's positions to operational database.
Operational database to general ledger (including suspense accounts).
Dealer's profit and loss statement to profit and loss account.
General ledger to regulatory reports.
For exchange traded products, brokers* statements (or the

exchange's statements) to general ledger and the income statement.
The reconciliation of front office positions should be performed by an

individual independent of dealing function. Internal auditors should be
responsible for ensuring that reconciliation procedures are properly
performed.
The frequency of the reconciliations should be commensurate with
the scale, significance and complexity of the trading operation. Active
dealers should reconcile dealer's positions and profit and loss statements
to the operational database and general ledger on a daily basis.
Unusual items and any items outstanding for an inordinately long
period of time should be investigated.
There should be adequate audit trail to ensure that balances and
accounts have been properly reconciled. Reconciliation records and
documentation should be maintained and independently reviewed. Such
record should be kept for an appropriate period of time prior to their
destruction.
F. REVALUATION PROCEDURES
The revaluation procedures should cover the full range of derivatives
instruments included in the institution's trading portfolio.
Revaluation rates should be obtained from or verified by a source (or
different sources in the case of OTC derivatives) independent of the
dealers, representative of the market levels and properly approved.
Revaluation calculations should be independently checked.
Revaluation of accounts should be performed at least monthly. For
active market participants, revaluations should be performed on a daily
basis.
Profits and losses resulting from revaluation should be posted to the

general ledger at least once a month and positions should be markedto-market regularly for risk control and MIS purposes.
If models are used to derive or interpolate specific market factors,
assumptions and methodologies
used should be consistent and
reasonable, and should be reviewed periodically by the independent

risk control unit. Any changes of the assumptions and methodologies
should be justified and approved by management.
Revaluation rates and calculations should be fully documented.
G. EXCEPTIONS REPORTS
To track errors, frauds and losses, the back office should generate
management reports that reflect current status and trends for the
following items:
-
Outstanding general ledger reconciling items.
Failed trades.
Off-market trades.
After-hours and off-premises trading.
~ Aging of unconfirmed trades.

- Suspense items payable/receivable.
-
Brokerage payments.
- Miscellaneous losses.
The management information system/reporting system of the institution
should enable the detection of unusual patterns of activity (i.e. increase
in volume, new trading counterparties, etc.) for review by management.
H. ACCOUNTING PRINCIPLES
Institutions should have written accounting policies relating to trading
and hedging with derivatives instruments, which are in conformity
with generally accepted accounting principles and approved by senior
management.
Transactions should be categorised according to whether they were

entered into for trading purposes or whether they were entered into
to hedge existing assets, liabilities, other off-balance sheet positions or
future cash flow. Adequate evidence of intention to hedge should be
established at the outset of the hedging transaction and there should
be clearly defined procedures in place for identifying such transactions.
Trading transactions should be marked to market. Hedging transactions
should be valued on the same basis as the related assets, liabilities,
positions or future cash flows.
The setting up and use of suspense accounts should be properly
controlled.
Institutions should report derivatives transactions in regulatory reports
and annual accounts in conforming with their established accounting
policies.
For financial instruments which are netted for financial reporting and
regulatory reporting, institutions should ensure that the relevant netting
agreements conform with the criteria issued by the MA or other
relevant authorities permitting such setoff.
**>f4
This book is due for return or renewal on the date

shown unless previously recalled. Fines may be
incurred for late return,
DATE DUE
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THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG

This book was received

HONG KONG MONETARY AUTHORITY

Risk and Return

Some Fundamentals of Derivatives

Pricing of a Forward Contract and the Yield Curve

Forwards and Futures

Different Types of Swaps

Duration and Convexity

Delta and Volatility

Trading Options is Trading Volatility

The Gamma of an Option

Hedging with Derivatives

Hang Seng Index and HIBOR Derivatives

Managing Risks in Banks

Guideline on Risk Management of Derivatives

and Other Traded Instruments

Risk management systems

However, this concern has become more

highly developed and explicit in recent years as a result of certain features

denominator, value at risk, which can be more intuitively understood by the

First, it is possible for senior

management to be lulled into a false sense of security by such models.

Sufficient capital to withstand losses

As part of our efforts to raise the level of awareness of our staff on

There is no shortage of books on derivatives available in bookstores. This

INVESTMENT RETURN AND ASSOCIATED RISK

Risk and Return

Risk and Return

From the eye-balling technique, we all see the annual returns

Change in return A - Mean of change

Standard deviation = V15,768.9/4

Risk and Return

Derivatives: Practices and Principles, by the Group of Thirty.

Risk and Return

This example can be interpreted as there is an approximately 16 percent

Risk and Return

Mathematically, the relation between a one-day value at risk and a 10-day

Risk and Return

What is a derivative instrument?

Derivatives can be classified into two types: forwards and options.

Some Fundamentals of Derivatives

$10,000. (For simplification of presentation, we assume a parallel shift of the

Some Fundamentals of Derivatives

This was how the futures and

PARTICIPANTS IN DERIVATIVES MARKETS

Some Fundamentals of Derivatives

If the stock market in

Some Fundamentals of Derivatives

Should we criticise banks for engaging in position-taking business?

In the process of serving these clients,

Some Fundamentals of Derivatives

PRICING OF A FORWARD CONTRACT

Pricing of a Forward Contract and the Yield Curve

For arbitrageurs, risk-free borrowing rates are usually

Pricing of a Forward Contract and the Yield Curve

In the above example, it is shown that an "equilibrium" will be reached so

period we have to pay 5/4 = 1.25% interest. Therefore we have to pay

Usually the storage costs and income