EUROPEAN ACADEMIC RESEARCH

Vol. IV, Issue 1/ April 2016

Impact Factor: 3.4546 (UIF)

ISSN 2286-4822 DRJI Value: 5.9 (B+)
www.euacademic.org

Assessment of Climate Change Impact and

Vulnerability to Climate Change among Livestock
holder in Chitwan District, Nepal

SURYA MANI DHUNGANA

Assistant Professor
Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Management
Faculty of Agriculture
Agriculture and Forestry University
Rampur, Chitwan

Abstract:
The research was done in order to assess vulnerability to
climate change for livestock raising households in Chitwan district of
Nepal. The six different villages namely, Gitanagar, Patihani,
Padampur, Megauli, Gunjanagar and Ayodhyapuri of Chitwan
district were purposively selected for the study. The 60 households from
each VDC and altogether 360 household were randomly selected. The
descriptive statistics as well as trend analysis was used to study the
different socio-demographic variables and climatic pattern. The
integrated vulnerability assessment approach was used to assess the
climate change vulnerability to the livestock holders in the study area.
Annual incremental the temperature and rainfall over the past 30
years were 0.0430C and 0.93 mm respectively. All of the respondents
perceived about the climate change to some extent. Self-experience was
sufficient (about 58 % of the respondent) to know about the climate
change. The various adaptation strategy adopted by the farmer were
livestock diversification livestock feed supplement, shifting to off
farming activities, changing herd composition , taking credit ,
maintaining and enhancing genetic breed , growing fodder and
storing of hay silage and improving pastures or grazing land. There
were various barriers to the adaptation strategy for the households.

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The major barriers were lack of information about the climate change
and appropriate tools and techniques for adaptation. The own farming
experience and knowledge was the major minimizing tools against the
adverse climate in the study area. The Principal Component Analysis
(PCA) was fitted in the integrated vulnerability approach to find out
the index that was 10.99 for the study area. This results shows that the
study area is less vulnerable to climate change as the adaptive capacity
is high.

Key words: Adaptation, Barriers to adaptation strategy, Livestock

holder, Principal Component Analysis and Vulnerability

1 INTRODUCTION

Nepal enjoys a wide variety of climate from the tropics to the

alpine regions due to its topographical variability The country
witnesses hot and rainy season from June to September; warm
and moist cold from October to January; and dry and hot from
February to May. (Mool, Bajrachaya and Joshi 2001).
Agriculture is the major occupation with more than 66% of
peoples involvement and contributing about 35 % of GDP
(MOAD 2012) and livestock raising is the most integral part of
earning livelihood and mixed farming system , these sectors are
heavily affected by climate change. The changing climate affect
the livestock in many ways like unavailability of pastures and
enough feed, prone to heat stress due to increasing
number of hot days, decreasing the availability of the water
and water resources and increasing number of vector borne
diseases. These all make the livestock-raising household
vulnerable to climate change. At the same time, livestock
production is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions.
Therefore, livestock keepers will have to mitigate emissions as
well as adapt to change. The adaptation and mitigation that are
necessary may require significant changes in production
technology and livestock production systems, which could affect

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productivity, incomes and livelihoods. Livestock production

systems are highly heterogeneous, however, and different
production systems have different capacities to adapt or to take
on board the policy and regulatory changes that may be
required in the future. In developed countries, livestock
systems are generally adaptable and resilient. In developing
countries, in contrast, households that are dependent on
livestock keeping maybe much more vulnerable to changes in
climate and climate variability, with the potential for increased
poverty and decreased food security. Mitigation is the human
intervention to reduce the sources or enhances the sinks of
greenhouse gases (IPCC 2007 b) and adaptation is adjustment
in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected
climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or
exploits beneficial opportunities. Various types of adaptation
can be distinguished, including anticipatory, autonomous and
planned adaptation (IPCC 2007c). Adaptation to climate
change has emerged as a challenge to achieving and sustaining
the development outcomes as mitigation is not taking place as
needed (Eriksen 2011). Successful adaptation reduces
vulnerability to an extent that depends greatly on adaptive
capacity the ability of an affected system, region, or community
to cope with the impacts and risks of climate change.
Enhancement of adaptive capacity can reduce vulnerability and
promote sustainable development across many dimensions
(IPCC 2003). For that, it is firstly essential to identify
vulnerable places, communities and magnitude and aspects
of livelihood vulnerability (Regmi and Adhikari 2008). Except
very few qualitative vulnerability assessments, integrated
vulnerability assessment has not been done yet in Nepal.
Indeed, livelihood vulnerability assessment in quantitative way
is very new approach in Nepal even for many organizations
working in this field (Lama and Bhupendra 2009). Least
developed and developing countries are more vulnerable to the
climate change induced impacts and they face the great

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difficulties due to the lack of proper adaptation efforts (Orindi

and Eriksen 2005) . This research primarily focuses on to study
an adaptation and mitigation strategy for livestock raising
household vulnerable to climate change.

2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGIES

The study was conducted in the central region of inner Terai of

Nepal. Chitwan district was purposively selected for the study.
The study focused on vulnerable climate change for raising
livestock and farming purpose in six different villages namely,
Gitanagar, Patihani, Padampur, Megauli, Gunjanagar and
Ayodhyapuri purposively.

Source: (CBS 2012)

Figure 1. Map of Nepal showing the study district

In each VDC, there were random selections of 60 household as a

sample of study. Thus altogether, samples were 360 household.
In this study both, the primary and secondary data were
collected and analyzed. Fieldwork was conducted mainly
through semi-structured interviews and pre-tested
questionnaires using the face to face interview. Information on
various aspects of climate change as perceived by the farmers
raising livestock were collected. Information regarding the farm
and household characteristics, their feelings and perceived
impacts as compared to the past, changes in farming practices
and new adaptation strategies were collected through face-to-

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face interview. The progressive farmers and local leader were

interviewed with the preparation of checklist and their
perceptions were collected. Information obtained from the
interview was crosschecked during the FGD. Additional
information on various community based adaptation strategies,
difference observed in the present and past regarding the
farming practices were collected through FGD. The major
variables included in interview schedule were farmers
perception and their adaption strategies for livestock
production. A comparative climatic pattern for last 30 years
period to the present was obtained from the metrological
station Rampur. The analysis was also done by making graph,
pie chart, counting frequency and many other methods.

Empirical models for calculating vulnerability of climate

change
The integrated assessment approach combined both
socioeconomic and biophysical approaches as this study is
exploratory, the selection of indicators or themes is based on
the analysis of responses from local society and previous
vulnerabilities, how and why they are vulnerable. Vulnerability
assessment of the people to the impacts of climate change will
be carried out by using Principal Component Analysis where:

Vulnerability = (adaptive capacity) - (sensitivity + exposure)

Which is, V= (wA1+wA2...wAn) (wS1+wS2...wSnwE2+wE2...wEn)

Where, V is vulnerability index, w is the weight for each variable,
A1-An the adaptive variables, S1-Sn sensitivity variables and
E1-En exposure variables.

Here, both exposure and sensitivity will take negative signs but
adaptive capacity takes positive sign.

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Indexing
The intensity of problems and reasons were identified by using
five point scaling technique comparing most important,
somewhat important, important, and less important and least
important using scores of 1.00, 0.80, 0.60, 0.40, and 0.20,
respectively. The formula given below was used to find the
index for intensity various problem/reasons.
Si fi
Iprob= N Where,

Iprob = Index value for intensity of problem Si = Scale value of ith intensi
fi = Frequency of ith response N = Total number of respondent

3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Description of the study area

Chitwan district is located at the central part of the country
with an area of 2238.39 square kilometer ranging from 144 to
1947 m AMSL (DADO 2013). Therefore, all types of climate are
prevalent in Chitwan. Annual rainfall was recorded 2666.3 mm;
maximum temperature of 42.5C and minimum 7C with 83 %
relative humidity (DADO 2013). The district consists of three
major topographic divisions; Mahabharata hills in the north,
Siwalik Hills in the south and in between lay the inner Terai
valley region. The livestock holding in Chitwan district is
hereunder.

Table 1. Livestock holding Chitwan District 2012/2013

S.N. Types of livestock Number
1 Cattle 72970
2 Buffalo 113609
3 Goat 188101
4 Sheep 3374
5 Pig 9824
6 Poultry 5406020
Source: (DLSO 2013)

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Average livestock holding in the study area

The major livestock and birds reared in the study area were
cow, buffalo, poultry, sheep, goats and pig. To study the total
livestock holding by common unit, Livestock Unit (LSU) was
used converting all the livestock species in a single unit. The
aggregated LSU was calculated as explained by (Adhikari
2009). LSU = 1 (cattle) + 1.5 (buffalo) + 0.6 (pig) + 0.4
(goat/sheep) + 0.02 (poultry). Average livestock holding was
3.61 LSU with standard deviation of 1.41.

Trend of Climatological data in the study

The trend analysis showed an increase in the minimum,
average and maximum temperature significantly over 35 years
period with 0.077, 0.043, and 0.010 0C respectively (Figure 2).
According to (Baidhya, Regmi and Shrestha 2007), the national
average temperature increase in Nepal is 0.042 0C per year,
which is less than the average maximum temperature in the
study area. The detailed analysis (Practical Action 2009)
looking over a period of 30 years (1976-2005) reports that
maximum and mean temperatures are rising. This evidence is
sufficient to prove that the farmers perception of hotter
summer and less colder winter. The equation for temp was
hereunder

ymaxtemp= 0.0103x+ 10.252 (R2= 0.0319).1

yavegtemp= 0.0438x-63.043 ( R2= 0.5308)..2
ymintemp=0.0772x-136.34 ( R2= 0.5308)..3

Figure 2. Trend of temperature ( 0C) in Rampur Station (1980-2014)

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Trend of rainfall in Rampur Station

It was found that there is remarkable variation in the rainfall
pattern. The rainfall in 2007 was found to be highest with
228.55 mm and lowest in 1980 with 132.6 mm annually. The
annual rainfall decreased from mid-eighties to mid-nineties,
which then raise up to 2010 with yearly fluctuation and
ultimately dropped around the same level of rainfall of 1980s in
2012. These findings are in line with the farmers perception
about increase in drought and short and late monsoon these
days. Average annual rainfall is approximately 1800 mm (GON
2010); the trend line shows that the total rainfall increased
with 0.93mm per year in the Rampur station which is less than
the national annual rainfall 5.17 mm.
The estimated equation of rainfall for 30 year was
hereunder

Yrainfall=0.932x-1690 (R2= 0.098)..4

Figure 3. Trend of rainfall in (mm) in Rampur Station (1980-2014)

Farmers level of knowledge about climate change in the

study area
The study revealed that, all of the respondents obtained
information about climate change. It was found that about 18%
were more clearly known about climate change whereas
majority of people were least known (45.83%) about climate
change and about 36 % were clearly known about climate
change.

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Table 2. Level of knowledge about the climate change in the study

area
Level of knowledge Frequency
More clearly 66(18.33)
Clearly 129(35.83)
A little bit 165(45.84)
Figures in parenthesis indicate the percentage

Source of information about climate change in the study

area
It was revealed that the self experience (58.33%) was primary
source of information about climate change. The newspaper and
radio were equally used by population in the study area with
15.83% each. Television ,organization and neighbours or
colleagues were least used as source of information about 10%.

Table 3. Source of information about the climate change in the study

area
Source of information Frequency
Self-experience 210(58.34)
Radio 57(15.83)
TV 21(5.83)
Newspaper 57(15.83)
Neighbors / colleagues 9(2.50)
Organization 6(1.67)
Figures in parenthesis indicate the percentage.

Perception about the change in various parameters

related to climate and the livestock management
The study revealed that the hot weather was mostly at serious
level (63.33%) in present but it was intermediate in the past
(54.17%). The hailstorm was found to be equally serious and
less serious by the households (32%) in present, and less serious
in the past by 33.33% of household. The extent of coldness in
winter was expressed as serious by 37.50% in the present days
but it was felt less serious by about 31% household in past. The
cloudy weather was persistent in past in comparison to present.
The drought of spell in present was found to be more

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pronounced than the past. The incidence of disease and pest in

the present was expressed as serious (54.17%) than in the past
that was less serious (53.33%). The incidence of parasite in the
livestock was less serious in the past (54.17%) as compared to
present which was found to be serious (43.33%). While talking
about the loss of forage and pasture land, the households
opined that the trend was serious (60.00%) in the present than
past which was intermediate (55.83%).

Table 4. Perception about the change in various parameters related

to climate and the livestock management
Change in Time Extreme High Intermediate Low None
parameter
Hailstorm Present 0(0.00) 84(23.33) 72(20.00) 120(33.34) 84(23.33)
Past 13(10.83) 114(31.67) 72(20.00) 114(31.67) 28(5.83)
Hot weather Present 66(18.33) 228(63.34) 63(17.50) 3(0.83) 0(0.00)
Past 15(4.16) 126(35.00) 195(54.17) 24(6.67) 0(0.00)
Extreme cold Present 36(10.00) 93(25.84) 90(25.00) 111(30.83) 30 (8.33)
Past 72(20.00) 135(37.50) 60(16.67) 93(25.83) 0(0.00)
Cloudy weather Present 6(1.67) 27(7.50) 138(38.33) 171(47.50) 18(5.00)
Past 135(37.50) 117(32.50) 72(20.00) 36(10.00) 0(0.00)
Drought spell Present 153(42.50) 156(43.33) 45(12.50) 6(1.67) 0(0.00)
Past 0(0.00) 6(1.67) 102(28.33) 204(56.67) 48(13.33)
Disease pest Present 99(27.50) 195(54.17) 57(15.83) 9(2.50) 0 (0.00)
incidence Past 6(1.67) 9(2.50) 111(30.83) 192(53.33) 42(11.67)
Parasite in livestock Present 120(33.33) 156(43.33) 84(23.34) 0 (0.00) 0 (0.00)
Past 0 (0.00) 3(0.83) 99 (27.50) 195(54.17) 63(17.50)
Grassland and Present 102(28.33) 216(60.00) 39 (10.84) 3(0.83) 0 (0.00)
forage loss Past 3 (0.83) 102(28.33) 201(55.84) 51(14.17) 3(0.83)
Figures in parenthesis indicate the percentage.

Sectors affected by climate change

The study revealed that the climate change had serious impact
in the various sectors. The majority of the affected sector was
crops, livestock and fish farming about 66% and 29%
respectively. According to respondent the fruits and vegetables
production was least affected by climate change (5%).

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Figure 4. Climate change severely affected sectors

Perception of respondent on change in livestock

performance

Infertility in livestock
The study related to infertility status was found to be higher in
all the livestock. More than 50% of the respondent expressed
that infertility problem is ever increasing. Less than a half of
the respondent expressed that they had not yet noticed the
infertility in the livestock but surprisingly, less than 10% of the
respondent said that infertility is decreased due to climate
change in cattle and goat.

Table 5. Perception about the livestock infertility by household in

study area.
Livestock Increased Decreased Dont Know
Buffalo 312(86.67) 0 (0.00) 48 (13.33)
Cattle 204 (56.67) 30 (8.33) 126(35.00)
Goat 192 (53.33) 12 (3.33) 159(44.17)
Figures in parenthesis indicate the percentage

Perception about production performance of livestock

From the study, the respondent perceived that production
performance sharply decreased in buffalo (80.00%) and cattle
(61.67%). However, many households were still unknown about
the impact of climate change in production performance. Only
few of the respondent said that the climate change increased
production performance in buffalo (6.67%) ,cattle (3.33%) , goat
(24.17%) and poultry (15.83%). More than 84% of the
households said that they were not known about climate change
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impact in the poultry production as only few households had

reared the poultry for the household and commercial purpose.

Table 6. Respondent Perception towards production performance of

different livestock
Livestock Increased Decreased Dont Know
Buffalo 6 (6.67) 288(80.00) 48 (13.33)
Cattle 36(3.33) 232(61.67) 126(35.00)
Goat 87(24.17) 114(31.66) 159(44.17)
Poultry 57(15.83) 0 (0.00) 303(84.17)
Figures in parenthesis indicate the percentage

Reasons for declining livestock performance

The primary cause leading to decline in the livestock
performance were heat stress (87.50%), fodder and grazing land
unavailability (94.17%), high disease prevalence (90.83%) and
decrease in labor force (66.67%) whereas lack of market
(36.67%) and water shortage (31.67%) were less responsible for
the decline.

Figure 5. Reasons for declining the livestock performance

Various adaptation strategy adopted by farmer in the

study area
The adaptation strategies were not adopted by the entire
household due to various reasons. It was found that 35% of
households had the barrier to adaptation whereas 65% of
households had followed various adaptation strategies.

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Adaptation strategies followed in the study area

The various adaptation strategies were adopted in the study
area. Livestock diversification (93.59%) was the most adopted
adaptation strategy among all the strategy. The livestock feed
supplement, changing herd composition, and taking credit was
adopted almost equally (about 59%). Shifting the livestock
farming to other off farm activities were adopted by almost half
of the adopters. About 43% of the households grew fodder and
stored the hay silage, improved pastures or grazing land and
maintained and enhanced genetic breed as adaptation
strategies. The various adaptation strategy followed are shown
in Table 8.

Table 7. Various adaptation strategies followed in the study area

(n=234)
Adaptation strategies Frequency
Livestock diversification 219(93.59)
Livestock feed supplement 174(74.36)
Shifting from livestock farming to off farming activities 144(61.54)
Changing herd composition 168(71.79)
Taking credit 180(76.92)
Maintaining and enhancing genetic breed 120(51.28)
Improving pastures or grazing land 126(53.85)
Growing fodder and storing of hay silage 132(56.41)
Figures in parenthesis indicate the percentage

Barriers to adaptation strategy

The households expressed that they had various barrier to
adaptation to climate change. Majority of respondent strongly
agreed that lack of information was one of the prime causes to
adapt against climate change. Poor access to water and
unwillingness (i.e. no barrier to adaptation) almost equally
were barrier to the adaptation. Lack of the credit and the
technology remained least barrier to cope against the adverse
climate change.

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Table 8. Various barriers against the adaptation strategy

Reasons Index Rank
Lack of information about climate change 0.69 I
Lack of knowledge concerning appropriate adaptation 0.59 II
Lack of credit or poverty 0.56 III
No barrier to adaptation 0.55 IV
Poor market and transport facility 0.53 V
Lack of technology 0.46 VI
No access to water 0.41 VII

Source of techniques to minimize the adverse impact of

climate change in the study area
The primary source of effect of the technique to minimize the
adverse effect of climate change were own knowledge and
farming experimenting for about 47% households. The other
sources of the techniques were from the other farmer and
neighbor (16.7%), media (15%), and training and education
(14.2%). The contribution from developmental organization and
agriculture and livestock service center in the adaptation to
adverse climate was least with 4.2, and 3.3 percent
respectively.

Figure 6. Source of techniques to minimize the adverse impact of

climate change in the study area

Assessment of the climate change vulnerability in the

study area
The vulnerability was calculated using the integrated
vulnerability assessment approach. The Principal Component

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Analysis (PCA) calculated using SPSS showed that ten

components with Eigen Value 1 or greater accounted the 66.75
percent of the total variance. The first component had the Eigen
Value of 2.83 with variance of 11.82 percent followed by second
component with Eigen Value 2.15 and total variances of 8.97
percent. Similarly, other components are shown in the table 9.
The vulnerability index of the study area was found to
be 10.99, which implies that the study area was less vulnerable.
The similar result was found in the tropical region of Nepal
with vulnerability index of 8.1. The tropical region are found to
be less vulnerable to climate change as the households have
high literacy rate, more income source and earning and hi tech
technology and proper access to infrastructure. The populations
in the tropical area have better employment and earning off
farm income. This expansion of the economic undertakings and
access to the infrastructure technology make the households
less dependent in the livestock that is more sensitive to climate
change. The least occurrence of the drought and floods and no
presence of the landslides lead to less vulnerability. The
provisions of the more adaptive factors are responsible for
reduction of vulnerability (Dhakal, et al. 2013).

Table 9. Principal component score of the variable used for the

vulnerability
Indicators Types of
Score
variables
Social background of the household 0.49 Adaptive capacity
Family type 0.62 Adaptive capacity
Education status of household 0.77 Adaptive capacity
Primary (major) occupation 0.67 Adaptive capacity
Total cultivated land 0.65 Adaptive capacity
Land ownership 0.64 Adaptive capacity
Radio 0.62 Adaptive capacity
Television 0.66 Adaptive capacity
Bus truck vehicle 0.66 Adaptive capacity
Toilet 0.80 Adaptive capacity
LPG stoves 0.65 Adaptive capacity
Monthly expenditure 0.47 Adaptive capacity
Source and technique minimize climate change effect 0.67 Adaptive capacity
Member organization 0.79 Adaptive capacity

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Indicators Types of
Score
variables
Training on agriculture and livestock management 0.78 Adaptive capacity
Access to subsidy 0.59 Adaptive capacity
LSU 0.71 Adaptive capacity
Years of schooling 0.85 Adaptive capacity
Types of household 0.71 Adaptive capacity
Information source about climate change 0.70 Adaptive capacity
Barrier to adaptation 0.61 Sensitivity
Flood 0.56 Exposure
Temperature 0.66 Sensitivity
Rainfall 0.68 Sensitivity
Vulnerability index 10.99

CONCLUSION

Based upon the study about vulnerability to the climate change

for the livestock raising households, the following conclusions
were made. Most of the households perceived the change in
climate at present in terms of change in rainfall pattern,
duration, and change in summer and winter temperature in
terms of hotness and coldness. The performance of the livestock
decreased due to climate change promoting the heat stress,
high incidence of the disease and the pest, loss of biodiversity
and the pastureland, infertility, etc. The various adaptation
strategy were adopted against the adverse climate change like
farm diversification, shifting to the off farm activities,
maintaining the improved genetic breed, improving the feed
quality and institutional management and training. There were
various barriers for the adoption adaptation strategy like lack
of information and the appropriate technology, training, the
poverty, transport and market facility and water shortage. The
various variables like asset possessions, income and saving,
training, schooling, and social background were principal
component of the adaptive capacity while the extreme variables
were barrier to adaptation, flood, and rainfall and temperature
pattern.

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ACKNOWLEDGMENT

The research was supported by Directorate of Research and

Extension, Agriculture and Forestry University
(www.afu.edu.np), Rampur, Chitwan, Nepal. I am deeply
indebted to the households in my study area, who are too
numerous to mention individually, but without whose
cooperation this study would not have been possible. Errors, if
any, are entirely my own.

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