1.

Demand projection
#01 #02 #03 #04 #05 #06
Zara 8,000.00 8,200.00 8,700.00 9,000.00 9,500.00 10,000.00
Pull&Bear 5,500.00 5,500.00 5,500.00 6,000.00 6,200.00 6,100.00
Massimo Dutti 1,250.00 1,300.00 1,300.00 1,300.00 1,380.00 2,000.00
Berskha 2,000.00 2,100.00 2,200.00 3,000.00 4,000.00 4,500.00
Stradivarius 1,250.00 1,250.00 1,250.00 2,700.00 3,000.00 3,200.00

2. Capacity Spain 10,500 / year

3. % production --> table 9.4
4. Labor wage rate --> table 9.3
5. Prob of increase, $ increase, tax change, logistic cost.

Wages Rate
% $ T $C Tax Rate LC
India 70% 1.00 0.50 5% 8.00
China 50% 1.10 0.60 4% 3.00
Tunisia 40% 1.80 1.00 10% 5.00
Morocco 40% 2.00 2.00 10% 6.00
Hungary 30% 3.50 2.50 8% 6.00
Portugal 30% 5.00 4.50 5% 7.00
Spain 50% 9.00 7.80 5% 5.00
USA 60% 15.00 11.00 9% 4.00
Italy 30% 18.00 14.00 12% 3.00

Question:

1. Projection of demand 2011-2015

2. What will you do? Outsource or not? Where?
 #07 #08 #09 #10
15,000.00 18,000.00 20,000.00 30,000.00
6,200.00 6,300.00 6,800.00 7,000.00
2,500.00 2,700.00 3,000.00 3,500.00
6,000.00 7,000.00 8,500.00 12,500.00
4,000.00 5,100.00 6,000.00 6,000.00
FORECASTED DEMAND PER COUNTRY (Detail forecast refer to next sheet from ForecastX in

1 2 3 4 5
Zara 8,000.00 8,200.00 8,700.00 9,000.00 9,500.00
Pull&Bear 5,500.00 5,500.00 5,500.00 6,000.00 6,200.00
Massimo Dutti 1,250.00 1,300.00 1,300.00 1,300.00 1,380.00
Berskha 2,000.00 2,100.00 2,200.00 3,000.00 4,000.00
Stradivarius 1,250.00 1,250.00 1,250.00 2,700.00 3,000.00
Total 18,000.00 18,350.00 18,950.00 22,000.00 24,080.00

Spain capacity 10,500.00 10,500.00 10,500.00 10,500.00 10,500.00

Excess capacity 7,500.00 7,850.00 8,450.00 11,500.00 13,580.00

Cost of Production - per unit

Production Cost-wages Taxes

LC
Country High Low High Low
India 2.49 0.99 0.12 0.05 8.00
China 2.75 1.05 0.11 0.04 3.00
Tunisia 4.56 1.76 0.46 0.18 5.00
Morocco 7.25 3.25 0.73 0.33 6.00
Hungary 11.10 5.1 0.89 0.41 6.00
Portugal 17.71 8.21 0.89 0.41 7.00
Spain 32.08 15.28 1.60 0.76 5.00
USA 49.09 23.09 4.42 2.08 4.00
Italy 61.41 29.41 7.37 3.53 3.00

Comparison of Each Country Labor Cost in Super Decision

India China Tunisia Morocco

10.142 4.976 8.168 11.335
India 10.142 1 0.49063301 0.80536383 1.11762966
China 4.976 0.20096463 1 1.6414791 2.27793408
Tunisia 8.168 0.0246039 0.60920666 1 1.38773262
Morocco 11.335 0.00217061 0.43899427 0.72059991 1
Hungary 13.452 0.00016136 0.36990782 0.60719596 0.84262563
Portugal 18.613 8.6692E-006 0.26734003 0.43883307 0.60898297
Spain 29.864 2.9029E-007 0.16662202 0.27350656 0.37955398
USA 46.1721 6.2871E-009 0.10777071 0.17690337 0.24549457
Italy 46.6912 1.3465E-010 0.10657254 0.1749366 0.24276523
sheet from ForecastX in the next sheet)

6 7 8 9 10 11
10,000.00 15,000.00 18,000.00 20,000.00 30,000.00 34,499.45
6,100.00 6,200.00 6,300.00 6,800.00 7,000.00 6,801.71
2,000.00 2,500.00 2,700.00 3,000.00 3,500.00 4,297.98
4,500.00 6,000.00 7,000.00 8,500.00 12,500.00 12,206.62
3,200.00 4,000.00 5,100.00 6,000.00 6,000.00 5,917.98
25,800.00 33,700.00 39,100.00 44,300.00 59,000.00 63,723.75

10,500.00 10,500.00 10,500.00 10,500.00 10,500.00 10,500.00

15,300.00 23,200.00 28,600.00 33,800.00 48,500.00 53,223.75

Production Cost-per unit

Total Cost
High Low
7.43 2.71 10.14
2.93 2.05 4.98
4.01 4.16 8.17
5.59 5.75 11.34
5.40 8.06 13.45
7.68 10.93 18.61
19.34 10.52 29.86
34.50 11.67 46.17
21.53 25.16 46.69

Hungary Portugal Spain USA Italy

13.452 18.613 29.864 46.1721 46.6912
1.32636561 1.8352396 2.94458687 4.5525636 4.6037468
2.70337621 3.74055466 6.00160772 9.278959 9.38327974
1.64691479 2.27877081 3.65621939 5.65280362 5.71635651
1.18676665 1.64208205 2.63467137 4.07340979 4.119206
1 1.38366042 2.22004163 3.4323595 3.47094856
0.72272068 1 1.60446999 2.48063719 2.5085263
0.450442 0.62325877 1 1.54607889 1.56346102
0.29134477 0.40312223 0.64679752 1 1.01124272
0.28810568 0.39864043 0.63960661 0.98888227 1
 12 13 14 15
37,285.91 39,474.18 38,449.80 52,367.72
7,006.65 7,331.50 7,190.67 7,303.60
4,379.54 4,216.84 5,512.78 6,025.84
14,046.54 16,911.26 16,703.41 18,408.91
8,712.90 8,880.25 8,306.51 7,994.93
71,431.54 76,814.03 76,163.17 92,101.00

10,500.00 10,500.00 10,500.00 10,500.00

60,931.54 66,314.03 65,663.17 81,601.00

FORECASTED DEMAND PER COUNTRY (Detail forecast refer to next sheet from ForecastX in

1 2 3 4
Zara 8,000.00 8,200.00 8,700.00 9,000.00
Pull&Bear 5,500.00 5,500.00 5,500.00 6,000.00
Massimo Dutti 1,250.00 1,300.00 1,300.00 1,300.00
Berskha 2,000.00 2,100.00 2,200.00 3,000.00
Stradivarius 1,250.00 1,250.00 1,250.00 2,700.00
Total 18,000.00 18,350.00 18,950.00 22,000.00

Spain capacity 10,500.00 10,500.00 10,500.00 10,500.00

Excess capacity 7,500.00 7,850.00 8,450.00 11,500.00

Recommendation based on rating :

Super
Country Decision Percentage
Result
Tunisia 0.20381 20%
Portugal 0.18366 18%
Spain 0.18243 18%
Morocco 0.11412 11%
Italy 0.10114 10%
Hungary 0.06352 6%
China 0.0635 6%
India 0.05606 6%
USA 0.03176 3%

Scenario :

1. If ZARA fully utilize Spain's capacity first before assigning it to other country for outsourcing.

Super
Country Decision Percentage
Result
Tunisia 0.20381 25%
Portugal 0.18366 22%
Morocco 0.11412 14%
Italy 0.10114 12%
Hungary 0.06352 8%
China 0.0635 8%
India 0.05606 7%
USA 0.03176 4%
 1 2 3 4
Zara 8,000.00 8,200.00 8,700.00 9,000.00
Pull&Bear 5,500.00 5,500.00 5,500.00 6,000.00
Massimo Dutti 1,250.00 1,300.00 1,300.00 1,300.00
Berskha 2,000.00 2,100.00 2,200.00 3,000.00
Stradivarius 1,250.00 1,250.00 1,250.00 2,700.00
Total 18,000.00 18,350.00 18,950.00 22,000.00

Spain capacity 10,500.00 10,500.00 10,500.00 10,500.00

Excess capacity 7,500.00 7,850.00 8,450.00 11,500.00

Distribution of Production :
1 2 3 4
Tunisia 1,869.66 1,956.91 2,106.48 2,866.81
Portugal 1,684.81 1,763.43 1,898.22 2,583.38
Morocco 1,046.88 1,095.74 1,179.49 1,605.22
Italy 927.81 971.11 1,045.33 1,422.64
Hungary 582.70 609.90 656.51 893.48
China 582.52 609.70 656.30 893.20
India 514.27 538.27 579.41 788.54
USA 291.35 304.95 328.26 446.74

Cost :
1 2 3 4
Tunisia 15271.353646 15,984.02 17205.725107 23416.07559
Portugal 31359.365987 32,822.80 35331.552345 48084.36118
Morocco 11866.416943 12,420.18 13369.496422 18195.172646
Italy 43320.583877 45,342.21 48807.857834 66424.895277
Hungary 7838.5126656 8,204.31 8831.3909366 12019.052754
China 2898.6141859 3,033.88 3265.7719828 4444.5417518
India 5215.7049549 5,459.10 5876.3609159 7997.4142642
USA 13452.296709 14,080.07 15156.254292 20626.854953

Total production c 131,222.85 137,346.58 147,844.41 201,208.37

ext sheet from ForecastX in the next sheet)

5 6 7 8 9
9,500.00 10,000.00 15,000.00 18,000.00 20,000.00
6,200.00 6,100.00 6,200.00 6,300.00 6,800.00
1,380.00 2,000.00 2,500.00 2,700.00 3,000.00
4,000.00 4,500.00 6,000.00 7,000.00 8,500.00
3,000.00 3,200.00 4,000.00 5,100.00 6,000.00
24,080.00 25,800.00 33,700.00 39,100.00 44,300.00

10,500.00 10,500.00 10,500.00 10,500.00 10,500.00

13,580.00 15,300.00 23,200.00 28,600.00 33,800.00

country for outsourcing.

 5 6 7 8 9
9,500.00 10,000.00 15,000.00 18,000.00 20,000.00
6,200.00 6,100.00 6,200.00 6,300.00 6,800.00
1,380.00 2,000.00 2,500.00 2,700.00 3,000.00
4,000.00 4,500.00 6,000.00 7,000.00 8,500.00
3,000.00 3,200.00 4,000.00 5,100.00 6,000.00
24,080.00 25,800.00 33,700.00 39,100.00 44,300.00

10,500.00 10,500.00 10,500.00 10,500.00 10,500.00

13,580.00 15,300.00 23,200.00 28,600.00 33,800.00

5 6 7 8 9
3,385.32 3,814.10 5,783.47 7,129.62 8,425.92
3,050.63 3,437.01 5,211.68 6,424.74 7,592.88
1,895.56 2,135.64 3,238.36 3,992.11 4,717.95
1,679.96 1,892.73 2,870.03 3,538.05 4,181.33
1,055.08 1,188.71 1,802.49 2,222.04 2,626.05
1,054.75 1,188.34 1,801.93 2,221.34 2,625.22
931.17 1,049.11 1,590.80 1,961.07 2,317.63
527.54 594.36 901.25 1,111.02 1,313.02

5 6 7 8 9
27651.331001 31153.561437 47239.387277 58234.761902 68822.900429
56781.35868 63973.106614 97004.97212 119583.71563 141326.20938
21486.125611 24207.490563 36706.783077 45250.603276 53477.985689
78439.137206 88373.991108 134005.00612 165195.82652 195231.43134
14192.9336 15990.565838 24247.132512 29890.861631 35325.563746
5248.424086 5913.1729393 8966.3798818 11053.382096 13063.087931
9443.9031051 10640.038108 16133.913994 19889.221561 23505.443664
24357.62524 27442.685285 41612.437818 51298.091449 60625.017166

237,600.84 267,694.61 405,916.01 500,396.46 591,377.64

 10 11 12 13 14
30,000.00 34,499.45 37,285.91 39,474.18 38,449.80
7,000.00 6,801.71 7,006.65 7,331.50 7,190.67
3,500.00 4,297.98 4,379.54 4,216.84 5,512.78
12,500.00 12,206.62 14,046.54 16,911.26 16,703.41
6,000.00 5,917.98 8,712.90 8,880.25 8,306.51
59,000.00 63,723.75 71,431.54 76,814.03 76,163.17

10,500.00 ### 10,500.00 ### 10,500.00

48,500.00 53,223.75 60,931.54 66,314.03 65,663.17

 10 11 12 13 14
30,000.00 34,499.45 37,285.91 39,474.18 38,449.80
7,000.00 6,801.71 7,006.65 7,331.50 7,190.67
3,500.00 4,297.98 4,379.54 4,216.84 5,512.78
12,500.00 12,206.62 14,046.54 16,911.26 16,703.41
6,000.00 5,917.98 8,712.90 8,880.25 8,306.51
59,000.00 63,723.75 71,431.54 76,814.03 76,163.17

10,500.00 ### 10,500.00 ### 10,500.00

48,500.00 53,223.75 60,931.54 66,314.03 65,663.17

10 11 12 13 14
12,090.44 13,269.00 15,190.00 16,532.00 16,370.00
10,895.10 11,957.00 13,688.00 14,897.00 14,751.00
6,769.84 7,430.00 8,506.00 9,257.00 9,166.00
5,999.84 6,585.00 7,538.00 8,204.00 8,124.00
3,768.14 4,136.00 4,734.00 5,153.00 5,102.00
3,766.96 4,134.00 4,733.00 5,151.00 5,101.00
3,325.60 3,650.00 4,179.00 4,548.00 4,503.00
1,884.07 2,063.00 2,364.00 2,572.00 2,547.00

10 11 12 13 14
98754.753575 108381.192 124071.92 135033.376 133710.16
202790.56672 222,555.64 254,774.74 277,277.86 274,560.36
76736.162897 84,219.05 96,415.51 104,928.10 103,896.61
280139.77574 307,461.55 351,958.27 383,054.60 379,319.31
50689.048571 55,637.47 63,681.77 69,318.16 68,632.10
18744.371736 20,570.78 23,551.41 25,631.38 25,382.58
33728.225375 37,018.30 42,383.42 46,125.82 45,669.43
86991.518715 95,253.04 109,150.84 118,754.64 117,600.34

848,574.42 931,097.03 1,065,987.88 1,160,123.93 1,148,770.89

 15
52,367.72
7,303.60
6,025.84
18,408.91
7,994.93
92,101.00

10,500.00

81,601.00
 15
52,367.72
7,303.60
6,025.84
18,408.91
7,994.93
92,101.00

10,500.00

81,601.00

15
20,343.00
18,331.00
11,391.00
10,095.00
6,340.00
6,338.00
5,596.00
3,170.00

15
166161.624 0
341,194.90
129,116.99
471,347.66
85,285.68
31,537.89
56,754.63
146,365.56

1,427,764.93
 8000
9500 Date
8200
8700
9000
10000 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013 Forecast of 8000Fitted Values
8200 Error
8700
9440.0962723
9991.9211918
10517.811781 0
-440.09627229
-491.92119175
-517.81178079
15000
18000
20000
30000 2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019 24230.511653
34499.450621
37285.912277 15776.717671
18984.215644
23476.982382 -776.71767119
-984.21564401
24230.511653 -3476.9823819
5769.4883472
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025 39474.184748
38449.804769
52367.722171
54122.941158
55536.454377
52693.127037
2026
2027
2028 70136.558252
70996.273318
2029 71618.738845
66930.660561 8000
80000

70000

60000

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
-10000

8000 Forecast of 8000 Fitted Values Error

Forecast -- Decomposition Selected

Forecast % Change
Date Annual In Forecast
2018 34,499.45
2019 37,285.91 8.08%
2020 39,474.18 5.87%
2021 38,449.80 -2.60%
2022 52,367.72 36.20%
2023 54,122.94 3.35%
2024 55,536.45 2.61%
2025 52,693.13 -5.12%
2026 70,136.56 33.10%
2027 70,996.27 1.23%
2028 71,618.74 0.88%
2029 66,930.66 -6.55%
Avg 53,675.99 7.00%
Max 71,618.74 36.20%
Min 34,499.45 -6.55%

Summary Comments
The forecast has an average error of 6.95%
The data has a standard deviation of 7,342.85
The forecast exceeds the accuracy of a simple average by 88.95%
Audit Trail - Summary Analysis

Audit Trail - Historical Versus Fitted Analysis

Series: 8000
Original Fitted Series Forecast Cumulative
Date Data Data Error % Change % Change Error
2009 8,200.00 8,200.00 0.00 0.00
2010 8,700.00 8,700.00 0.00 6.10% 6.10% 0.00
2011 9,000.00 9,440.10 -440.10 3.45% 8.51% -146.70
2012 9,500.00 9,991.92 -491.92 5.56% 5.85% -233.00
2013 10,000.00 10,517.81 -517.81 5.26% 5.26% -289.97
2014 15,000.00 15,776.72 -776.72 50.00% 50.00% -371.09
2015 18,000.00 18,984.22 -984.22 20.00% 20.33% -458.68
2016 20,000.00 23,476.98 -3,476.98 11.11% 23.67% -835.97
2017 30,000.00 24,230.51 5,769.49 50.00% 3.21% -102.03
Avg 14,266.67 14,368.70 -102.03 18.93% 15.36% -270.83
Max 30,000.00 24,230.51 5,769.49 50.00% 50.00% 0.00
Min 8,200.00 8,200.00 -3,476.98 3.45% 3.21% -835.97
StDev 7,342.85 6,441.71 2,438.20 19.87% 15.89% 263.89
Var 53,917,500.00 41,495,665.29 5,944,810.62 3.95% 2.52% 69,639.80
Median 10,000.00 10,517.81 -491.92 8.60% 7.30% -233.00

Audit Trail - Statistics

Accuracy Measures Value Forecast Statistics

AIC 168.88 Mean
BIC 169.28 Standard Deviation
Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) 6.95%
Sum Squared Error (SSE) 47,652,173.27
R-Square 88.95%
Adjusted R-Square 87.37%

Method Statistics Value

Method Selected Decomposition
Basic Method Double Exponential Smoothing-Holt
Alpha 0.55
Gamma 1.00
Decomposition Type Multiplicative

Components of Decomposition

Original Forecasted Centered CMA Seasonal Cycle

Date Data Data Moving Average Trend Indices Factors
2009 8,200.00 8,200.00 0.88
2010 8,700.00 8,700.00 1.09
2011 9,000.00 9,440.10 9,075.00 10,061.19 1.04 0.90
2012 9,500.00 9,991.92 10,087.50 9,177.70 0.99 1.10
2013 10,000.00 10,517.81 12,000.00 11,000.15 0.88 1.09
2014 15,000.00 15,776.72 14,437.50 13,873.71 1.09 1.04
2015 18,000.00 18,984.22 18,250.00 16,870.45 1.04 1.08
2016 20,000.00 23,476.98 21,984.37 0.99 1.08
2017 30,000.00 24,230.51 25,767.84 0.88 1.07
2018 34,499.45 29,551.31 1.09 1.07
2019 37,285.91 33,334.78 1.04 1.08
2020 39,474.18 37,118.25 0.99 1.07
2021 38,449.80 40,901.72 0.88 1.07
2022 52,367.72 44,685.19 1.09 1.07
2023 54,122.94 48,468.66 1.04 1.07
2024 55,536.45 52,252.13 0.99 1.07
2025 52,693.13 56,035.60 0.88 1.07
2026 70,136.56 59,819.07 1.09 1.07
2027 70,996.27 63,602.53 1.04 1.07
2028 71,618.74 67,386.00 0.99 1.07
2029 66,930.66 71,169.47 0.88 1.07

ForecastX Configuration Parameters

Item Value
Data Range Selected [Zara - Additional data.xlsx]Sheet2'!$B$2:$K$2
Time scale for data Annual
Periods to forecast 12
Seasonal Length
Replace Outliers Activated No
Replace Outliers Standard Deviations
Replace Outliers Forecasting Technique
Replace Missing Values No
Replace Missing Values (Lower Limit)
Replace Missing Values (Upper Limit)
Remove Leading Zeros Yes
Remove Trailing Zeros No
Use Holdback Evaluation Yes
Holdback Evaluation Period 4
Apply Tracking Signal No
Apply Tracking Signal (Under Forecast Percentage)
Apply Tracking Signal (Over Forecast Percentage)
Forecast Method Selected Decomposition

Report Details
Run Date: 2/18/2017 1:20 PM
Author: John Galt Development, Inc.
Note: ForecastX
2027 2028 2029
Cumulative
MAPE
0.00%
0.00%
0.54%
0.73%
0.79%
0.80%
0.80%
0.97%
1.10%
0.64%
1.10%
0.00%
0.39%
0.00%
0.79%

Value
14,266.67
7,342.85
5500
6000
6100 Date 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013 Forecast of 5500Fitted Values
5500 Error
5859.4077772
6095.600959 0
140.59222276
4.3990410394
6200
6300
6800
7000 2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019 6685.9618669
6801.7147573
7006.6451121 6195.5288435
6445.348555
6817.713177
6685.9618669 4.4711564662
-145.34855497
-17.713176973
314.03813314
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025 7331.5013177
7190.6653666
7303.5992522
7504.485941
7849.3422811
7690.8878635
2026
2027 7801.6801154
2029 8006.5680931
2028 8367.129046
8189.9748947 5500
9000

8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
-1000

5500 Forecast of 5500 Fitted Values Error

Forecast -- Decomposition Selected

Forecast % Change
Date Annual In Forecast
2018 6,801.71
2019 7,006.65 3.01%
2020 7,331.50 4.64%
2021 7,190.67 -1.92%
2022 7,303.60 1.57%
2023 7,504.49 2.75%
2024 7,849.34 4.60%
2025 7,690.89 -2.02%
2026 7,801.68 1.44%
2027 8,006.57 2.63%
2028 8,367.13 4.50%
2029 8,189.97 -2.12%
Avg 7,587.02 1.73%
Max 8,367.13 4.64%
Min 6,801.71 -2.12%

Summary Comments
The forecast has an average error of 1.07%
The data has a standard deviation of 504.42
The forecast exceeds the accuracy of a simple average by 93.13%
Audit Trail - Summary Analysis

Audit Trail - Historical Versus Fitted Analysis

Series: 5500
Original Fitted Series Forecast Cumulative
Date Data Data Error % Change % Change Error
2009 5,500.00 5,500.00 0.00 0.00
2010 5,500.00 5,500.00 0.00 0.00% 0.00% 0.00
2011 6,000.00 5,859.41 140.59 9.09% 6.53% 46.86
2012 6,200.00 6,195.53 4.47 3.33% 5.74% 36.27
2013 6,100.00 6,095.60 4.40 -1.61% -1.61% 29.89
2014 6,200.00 6,195.53 4.47 1.64% 1.64% 25.66
2015 6,300.00 6,445.35 -145.35 1.61% 4.03% 1.23
2016 6,800.00 6,817.71 -17.71 7.94% 5.78% -1.14
2017 7,000.00 6,685.96 314.04 2.94% -1.93% 33.88
Avg 6,177.78 6,143.90 33.88 3.12% 2.52% 19.18
Max 7,000.00 6,817.71 314.04 9.09% 6.53% 46.86
Min 5,500.00 5,500.00 -145.35 -1.61% -1.93% -1.14
StDev 504.42 468.58 127.26 3.69% 3.45% 19.05
Var 254,444.44 219,567.58 16,194.43 0.14% 0.12% 362.76
Median 6,200.00 6,195.53 4.40 2.29% 2.84% 25.66

Audit Trail - Statistics

Accuracy Measures Value Forecast Statistics

AIC 116.40 Mean
BIC 116.80 Standard Deviation
Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) 1.07% Variance
Sum Squared Error (SSE) 139,885.42
R-Square 93.13%
Adjusted R-Square 92.15%

Method Statistics Value

Method Selected Decomposition
Basic Method Double Exponential Smoothing-Holt
Alpha 0.22
Gamma 1.00
Decomposition Type Multiplicative

Components of Decomposition

Original Forecasted Centered CMA Seasonal Cycle

Date Data Data Moving Average Trend Indices Factors
2009 5,500.00 5,500.00 0.99
2010 5,500.00 5,500.00 0.99
2011 6,000.00 5,859.41 5,875.00 5,972.82 1.00 0.98
2012 6,200.00 6,195.53 6,037.50 5,949.09 1.03 1.01
2013 6,100.00 6,095.60 6,162.50 6,133.04 0.99 1.00
2014 6,200.00 6,195.53 6,275.00 6,265.19 0.99 1.00
2015 6,300.00 6,445.35 6,462.50 6,380.07 1.00 1.01
2016 6,800.00 6,817.71 6,587.57 1.03 1.01
2017 7,000.00 6,685.96 6,712.64 0.99 1.01
2018 6,801.71 6,837.71 0.99 1.01
2019 7,006.65 6,962.78 1.00 1.01
2020 7,331.50 7,087.85 1.03 1.01
2021 7,190.67 7,212.92 0.99 1.01
2022 7,303.60 7,337.99 0.99 1.01
2023 7,504.49 7,463.06 1.00 1.01
2024 7,849.34 7,588.13 1.03 1.01
2025 7,690.89 7,713.20 0.99 1.01
2026 7,801.68 7,838.27 0.99 1.01
2027 8,006.57 7,963.34 1.00 1.01
2028 8,367.13 8,088.41 1.03 1.01
2029 8,189.97 8,213.49 0.99 1.01

ForecastX Configuration Parameters

Item Value
Data Range Selected [Zara - Additional data.xlsx]Sheet2'!$B$3:$K$3
Time scale for data Annual
Periods to forecast 12
Seasonal Length
Replace Outliers Activated No
Replace Outliers Standard Deviations
Replace Outliers Forecasting Technique
Replace Missing Values No
Replace Missing Values (Lower Limit)
Replace Missing Values (Upper Limit)
Remove Leading Zeros Yes
Remove Trailing Zeros No
Use Holdback Evaluation No
Holdback Evaluation Period
Apply Tracking Signal No
Apply Tracking Signal (Under Forecast Percentage)
Apply Tracking Signal (Over Forecast Percentage)
Forecast Method Selected Decomposition

Report Details
Run Date: 2/18/2017 1:25 PM
Author: John Galt Development, Inc.
Note: ForecastX
2027 2028 2029
Cumulative
MAPE
0.00%
0.00%
0.26%
0.20%
0.16%
0.14%
0.17%
0.15%
0.19%
0.14%
0.26%
0.00%
0.09%
0.00%
0.16%

Value
6,177.78
504.42
254,444.44
Series1300
1 Date
1250
1380 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012 Forecast of SerieFitted Values
1250 Error
1300
1400.1808711
1400.0631793
1437.4476629 0
-100.18087107
-100.06317935
-57.447662938
2000
2500
2700
3000
3500 2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018 3826.2535892
4297.9801334 2083.2574825
2521.1310411
2723.0358462 -83.257482518
-21.131041104
2843.8857301 -23.035846155
3826.2535892 156.11426991
-326.25358915
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024 4379.5428135
4216.8358015
5512.7803243
6025.8411274
5982.2725279
5608.1807551
2025
2026
2027 7206.7279537
7749.0908516
2028 7576.5605948
2029 7005.9754005
8901.2056742 Series 1
10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

-2000

Series 1 Forecast of Series 1 Fitted Values Error

Forecast -- Decomposition Selected

Forecast % Change
Date Annual In Forecast
2018 4,297.98
2019 4,379.54 1.90%
2020 4,216.84 -3.72%
2021 5,512.78 30.73%
2022 6,025.84 9.31%
2023 5,982.27 -0.72%
2024 5,608.18 -6.25%
2025 7,206.73 28.50%
2026 7,749.09 7.53%
2027 7,576.56 -2.23%
2028 7,005.98 -7.53%
2029 8,901.21 27.05%
Avg 6,205.25 7.69%
Max 8,901.21 30.73%
Min 4,216.84 -7.53%

Summary Comments
The forecast has an average error of 4.00%
The data has a standard deviation of 843.38
The forecast exceeds the accuracy of a simple average by 97.47%
Audit Trail - Summary Analysis

Audit Trail - Historical Versus Fitted Analysis

Series: Series 1
Original Fitted Series Forecast Cumulative
Date Data Data Error % Change % Change Error
2008 1,250.00 1,250.00 0.00 0.00
2009 1,300.00 1,300.00 0.00 4.00% 4.00% 0.00
2010 1,300.00 1,400.18 -100.18 0.00% 7.71% -33.39
2011 1,300.00 1,400.06 -100.06 0.00% -0.01% -50.06
2012 1,380.00 1,437.45 -57.45 6.15% 2.67% -51.54
2013 2,000.00 2,083.26 -83.26 44.93% 44.93% -56.82
2014 2,500.00 2,521.13 -21.13 25.00% 21.02% -51.73
2015 2,700.00 2,723.04 -23.04 8.00% 8.01% -48.14
2016 3,000.00 2,843.89 156.11 11.11% 4.44% -25.44
2017 3,500.00 3,826.25 -326.25 16.67% 34.54% -55.53
Avg 2,023.00 2,078.53 -55.53 12.87% 14.14% -37.27
Max 3,500.00 3,826.25 156.11 44.93% 44.93% 0.00
Min 1,250.00 1,250.00 -326.25 0.00% -0.01% -56.82
StDev 843.38 874.05 120.76 14.45% 15.89% 21.97
Var 711,290.00 763,960.58 14,582.25 2.09% 2.52% 482.55
Median 1,690.00 1,760.35 -40.24 8.00% 7.71% -49.10

Audit Trail - Statistics

Accuracy Measures Value Forecast Statistics

AIC 129.31 Mean
BIC 129.92 Standard Deviation
Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) 4.00%
Sum Squared Error (SSE) 162,071.13
R-Square 97.47%
Adjusted R-Square 97.15%

Method Statistics Value

Method Selected Decomposition
Basic Method Double Exponential Smoothing-Holt
Alpha 1.00
Gamma 0.61
Decomposition Type Multiplicative

Components of Decomposition

Original Forecasted Centered CMA Seasonal Cycle

Date Data Data Moving Average Trend Indices Factors
2008 1,250.00 1,250.00 0.87
2009 1,300.00 1,300.00 1.06
2010 1,300.00 1,400.18 1,303.75 1,407.50 1.07 0.93
2011 1,300.00 1,400.06 1,407.50 1,303.75 0.99 1.08
2012 1,380.00 1,437.45 1,645.00 1,511.25 0.87 1.09
2013 2,000.00 2,083.26 1,970.00 1,882.50 1.06 1.05
2014 2,500.00 2,521.13 2,347.50 2,295.00 1.07 1.02
2015 2,700.00 2,723.04 2,737.50 2,725.00 0.99 1.00
2016 3,000.00 2,843.89 3,127.50 0.87 1.04
2017 3,500.00 3,826.25 3,517.50 1.06 1.03
2018 4,297.98 3,907.50 1.07 1.02
2019 4,379.54 4,297.50 0.99 1.02
2020 4,216.84 4,687.50 0.87 1.03
2021 5,512.78 5,077.50 1.06 1.03
2022 6,025.84 5,467.50 1.07 1.03
2023 5,982.27 5,857.50 0.99 1.03
2024 5,608.18 6,247.50 0.87 1.03
2025 7,206.73 6,637.50 1.06 1.03
2026 7,749.09 7,027.50 1.07 1.03
2027 7,576.56 7,417.50 0.99 1.03
2028 7,005.98 7,807.50 0.87 1.03
2029 8,901.21 8,197.50 1.06 1.03

ForecastX Configuration Parameters

Item Value
Data Range Selected [Zara - Additional data.xlsx]Data'!$B$4:$K$4
Time scale for data Annual
Periods to forecast 12
Seasonal Length
Replace Outliers Activated No
Replace Outliers Standard Deviations
Replace Outliers Forecasting Technique
Replace Missing Values No
Replace Missing Values (Lower Limit)
Replace Missing Values (Upper Limit)
Remove Leading Zeros Yes
Remove Trailing Zeros No
Use Holdback Evaluation No
Holdback Evaluation Period
Apply Tracking Signal No
Apply Tracking Signal (Under Forecast Percentage)
Apply Tracking Signal (Over Forecast Percentage)
Forecast Method Selected Decomposition

Report Details
Run Date: 2/18/2017 1:31 PM
Author: John Galt Development, Inc.
Note: ForecastX
2027 2028 2029
Cumulative
MAPE
0.00%
0.00%
0.86%
1.12%
1.07%
1.00%
0.88%
0.78%
0.76%
0.78%
0.72%
1.12%
0.00%
0.40%
0.00%
0.82%

Value
2,023.00
843.38
Series2200
1 Date
2000
2100
3000
4000 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012 Forecast of SerieFitted Values
2000 Error
2100
2509.0468772
3091.3928808
4179.9115008 0
-309.04687716
-91.392880766
-179.91150075
4500
6000
7000
8500
12500 2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018 10621.861537
12206.620134 4702.4004383
5785.4236245
7419.3429138 -202.40043835
214.57637547
10236.658186 -419.34291384
10621.861537 -1736.6581862
1878.1384632
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024 14046.539721
16911.256086
16703.411638
18408.90562
20273.296653
23648.521553
2025
2026
2027 22796.674024
24567.912371
2028 26507.072031
2029 30406.026343
28885.528977 Series 1
35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
-5000

Series 1 Forecast of Series 1 Fitted Values Error

Forecast -- Decomposition Selected

Forecast % Change
Date Annual In Forecast
2018 12,206.62
2019 14,046.54 15.07%
2020 16,911.26 20.39%
2021 16,703.41 -1.23%
2022 18,408.91 10.21%
2023 20,273.30 10.13%
2024 23,648.52 16.65%
2025 22,796.67 -3.60%
2026 24,567.91 7.77%
2027 26,507.07 7.89%
2028 30,406.03 14.71%
2029 28,885.53 -5.00%
Avg 21,280.15 8.45%
Max 30,406.03 20.39%
Min 12,206.62 -5.00%

Summary Comments
The forecast has an average error of 7.11%
The data has a standard deviation of 3,394.05
The forecast exceeds the accuracy of a simple average by 93.30%
Audit Trail - Summary Analysis

Audit Trail - Historical Versus Fitted Analysis

Series: Series 1
Original Fitted Series Forecast Cumulative
Date Data Data Error % Change % Change Error
2008 2,000.00 2,000.00 0.00 0.00
2009 2,100.00 2,100.00 0.00 5.00% 5.00% 0.00
2010 2,200.00 2,509.05 -309.05 4.76% 19.48% -103.02
2011 3,000.00 3,091.39 -91.39 36.36% 23.21% -100.11
2012 4,000.00 4,179.91 -179.91 33.33% 35.21% -116.07
2013 4,500.00 4,702.40 -202.40 12.50% 12.50% -130.46
2014 6,000.00 5,785.42 214.58 33.33% 23.03% -81.17
2015 7,000.00 7,419.34 -419.34 16.67% 28.24% -123.44
2016 8,500.00 10,236.66 -1,736.66 21.43% 37.97% -302.69
2017 12,500.00 10,621.86 1,878.14 47.06% 3.76% -84.60
Avg 5,180.00 5,264.60 -84.60 23.38% 20.93% -104.16
Max 12,500.00 10,621.86 1,878.14 47.06% 37.97% 0.00
Min 2,000.00 2,000.00 -1,736.66 4.76% 3.76% -302.69
StDev 3,394.05 3,211.38 873.75 14.91% 12.14% 83.83
Var 11,519,555.56 10,312,957.12 763,432.88 2.22% 1.47% 7,027.25
Median 4,250.00 4,441.16 -135.65 21.43% 23.03% -101.56

Audit Trail - Statistics

Accuracy Measures Value Forecast Statistics

AIC 166.88 Mean
BIC 167.49 Standard Deviation
Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) 7.11% Variance
Sum Squared Error (SSE) 6,942,473.96
R-Square 93.30%
Adjusted R-Square 92.47%

Method Statistics Value

Method Selected Decomposition
Basic Method Double Exponential Smoothing-Holt
Alpha 0.83
Gamma 1.00
Decomposition Type Multiplicative

Components of Decomposition

Original Forecasted Centered CMA Seasonal Cycle

Date Data Data Moving Average Trend Indices Factors
2008 2,000.00 2,000.00 1.07
2009 2,100.00 2,100.00 0.96
2010 2,200.00 2,509.05 2,575.00 2,995.08 0.97 0.86
2011 3,000.00 3,091.39 3,125.00 2,914.38 0.99 1.07
2012 4,000.00 4,179.91 3,900.00 3,444.21 1.07 1.13
2013 4,500.00 4,702.40 4,875.00 4,482.72 0.96 1.09
2014 6,000.00 5,785.42 5,937.50 5,759.81 0.97 1.03
2015 7,000.00 7,419.34 7,500.00 7,010.12 0.99 1.07
2016 8,500.00 10,236.66 8,842.48 1.07 1.08
2017 12,500.00 10,621.86 10,319.34 0.96 1.07
2018 12,206.62 11,796.20 0.97 1.06
2019 14,046.54 13,273.07 0.99 1.07
2020 16,911.26 14,749.93 1.07 1.07
2021 16,703.41 16,226.79 0.96 1.07
2022 18,408.91 17,703.65 0.97 1.07
2023 20,273.30 19,180.51 0.99 1.07
2024 23,648.52 20,657.38 1.07 1.07
2025 22,796.67 22,134.24 0.96 1.07
2026 24,567.91 23,611.10 0.97 1.07
2027 26,507.07 25,087.96 0.99 1.07
2028 30,406.03 26,564.82 1.07 1.07
2029 28,885.53 28,041.69 0.96 1.07

ForecastX Configuration Parameters

Item Value
Data Range Selected [Zara - Additional data.xlsx]Data'!$B$5:$K$5
Time scale for data Annual
Periods to forecast 12
Seasonal Length
Replace Outliers Activated No
Replace Outliers Standard Deviations
Replace Outliers Forecasting Technique
Replace Missing Values No
Replace Missing Values (Lower Limit)
Replace Missing Values (Upper Limit)
Remove Leading Zeros Yes
Remove Trailing Zeros No
Use Holdback Evaluation No
Holdback Evaluation Period
Apply Tracking Signal No
Apply Tracking Signal (Under Forecast Percentage)
Apply Tracking Signal (Over Forecast Percentage)
Forecast Method Selected Decomposition

Report Details
Run Date: 2/18/2017 1:33 PM
Author: John Galt Development, Inc.
Note: ForecastX
2027 2028 2029
Cumulative
MAPE
0.00%
0.00%
1.56%
1.36%
1.27%
1.18%
1.09%
1.04%
1.18%
1.21%
0.99%
1.56%
0.00%
0.54%
0.00%
1.18%

Value
5,180.00
3,394.05
11,519,555.56
Series1250
1 Date
2700
3000 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012 Forecast of SerieFitted Values
1250 Error
1546.1823866
2620.9563248
3098.5126156 0
-296.18238657
79.043675191
-98.512615632
3200
4000
5100
6000 2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018 6015.9257271
5917.9820432 3305.0801233
3546.1930504
5627.5574495 -105.08012334
453.80694957
6274.2033066 -527.55744945
6015.9257271 -274.20330657
-15.925727065
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024 8712.8953745
8880.2475467
8306.5078961
7994.9270851
11523.522422
11507.543031
2025
2026
2027 10604.919081
10067.294604
2028 14325.687458
2029 14141.97727
12904.013339 Series 1
16000

14000

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
-2000

Series 1 Forecast of Series 1 Fitted Values Error

Forecast -- Decomposition Selected

Forecast % Change
Date Annual In Forecast
2018 5,917.98
2019 8,712.90 47.23%
2020 8,880.25 1.92%
2021 8,306.51 -6.46%
2022 7,994.93 -3.75%
2023 11,523.52 44.14%
2024 11,507.54 -0.14%
2025 10,604.92 -7.84%
2026 10,067.29 -5.07%
2027 14,325.69 42.30%
2028 14,141.98 -1.28%
2029 12,904.01 -8.75%
Avg 10,407.29 9.30%
Max 14,325.69 47.23%
Min 5,917.98 -8.75%

Summary Comments
The forecast has an average error of 5.97%
The data has a standard deviation of 1,865.51
The forecast exceeds the accuracy of a simple average by 97.85%
Audit Trail - Summary Analysis

Audit Trail - Historical Versus Fitted Analysis

Series: Series 1
Original Fitted Series Forecast Cumulative
Date Data Data Error % Change % Change Error
2008 1,250.00 1,250.00 0.00 0.00
2009 1,250.00 1,250.00 0.00 0.00% 0.00% 0.00
2010 1,250.00 1,546.18 -296.18 0.00% 23.69% -98.73
2011 2,700.00 2,620.96 79.04 116.00% 69.51% -54.28
2012 3,000.00 3,098.51 -98.51 11.11% 18.22% -63.13
2013 3,200.00 3,305.08 -105.08 6.67% 6.67% -70.12
2014 4,000.00 3,546.19 453.81 25.00% 7.30% 4.73
2015 5,100.00 5,627.56 -527.56 27.50% 58.69% -61.81
2016 6,000.00 6,274.20 -274.20 17.65% 11.49% -85.41
2017 6,000.00 6,015.93 -15.93 0.00% -4.12% -78.46
Avg 3,375.00 3,453.46 -78.46 22.66% 21.27% -50.72
Max 6,000.00 6,274.20 453.81 116.00% 69.51% 4.73
Min 1,250.00 1,250.00 -527.56 0.00% -4.12% -98.73
StDev 1,865.51 1,927.79 260.95 36.56% 25.85% 38.24
Var 3,480,138.89 3,716,374.33 68,095.08 13.37% 6.68% 1,462.55
Median 3,100.00 3,201.80 -57.22 11.11% 11.49% -62.47

Audit Trail - Statistics

Accuracy Measures Value Forecast Statistics

AIC 143.57 Mean
BIC 144.17 Standard Deviation
Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) 5.97% Variance
Sum Squared Error (SSE) 674,417.17
R-Square 97.85%
Adjusted R-Square 97.58%

Method Statistics Value

Method Selected Decomposition
Basic Method Double Exponential Smoothing-Holt
Alpha 0.25
Gamma 1.00
Decomposition Type Multiplicative

Components of Decomposition

Original Forecasted Centered CMA Seasonal Cycle

Date Data Data Moving Average Trend Indices Factors
2008 1,250.00 1,250.00 1.08
2009 1,250.00 1,250.00 0.94
2010 1,250.00 1,546.18 1,831.25 2,284.12 0.84 0.80
2011 2,700.00 2,620.96 2,293.75 2,166.20 1.14 1.06
2012 3,000.00 3,098.51 2,881.25 2,661.91 1.08 1.08
2013 3,200.00 3,305.08 3,525.00 3,306.52 0.94 1.07
2014 4,000.00 3,546.19 4,200.00 4,007.16 0.84 1.05
2015 5,100.00 5,627.56 4,925.00 4,732.37 1.14 1.04
2016 6,000.00 6,274.20 5,507.53 1.08 1.06
2017 6,000.00 6,015.93 6,090.06 0.94 1.05
2018 5,917.98 6,672.59 0.84 1.05
2019 8,712.90 7,255.12 1.14 1.05
2020 8,880.25 7,837.65 1.08 1.05
2021 8,306.51 8,420.18 0.94 1.05
2022 7,994.93 9,002.71 0.84 1.05
2023 11,523.52 9,585.24 1.14 1.05
2024 11,507.54 10,167.77 1.08 1.05
2025 10,604.92 10,750.30 0.94 1.05
2026 10,067.29 11,332.83 0.84 1.05
2027 14,325.69 11,915.36 1.14 1.05
2028 14,141.98 12,497.89 1.08 1.05
2029 12,904.01 13,080.42 0.94 1.05

ForecastX Configuration Parameters

Item Value
Data Range Selected [Zara - Additional data.xlsx]Data'!$B$6:$K$6
Time scale for data Annual
Periods to forecast 12
Seasonal Length
Replace Outliers Activated No
Replace Outliers Standard Deviations
Replace Outliers Forecasting Technique
Replace Missing Values No
Replace Missing Values (Lower Limit)
Replace Missing Values (Upper Limit)
Remove Leading Zeros Yes
Remove Trailing Zeros No
Use Holdback Evaluation No
Holdback Evaluation Period
Apply Tracking Signal No
Apply Tracking Signal (Under Forecast Percentage)
Apply Tracking Signal (Over Forecast Percentage)
Forecast Method Selected Decomposition

Report Details
Run Date: 2/18/2017 1:35 PM
Author: John Galt Development, Inc.
Note: ForecastX
2027 2028 2029
Cumulative
MAPE
0.00%
0.00%
2.63%
2.16%
1.86%
1.64%
1.64%
1.59%
1.47%
1.33%
1.43%
2.63%
0.00%
0.84%
0.01%
1.61%

Value
3,375.00
1,865.51
3,480,138.89