Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits
Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits
Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits
Although
Grahams
writing
provided
invaluable
advice
on
how
to
mitigate
risk
and
find
hidden
value
on
corporate
balance
sheets,
other
great
thinkers
assisted
Buffetts
overall
approach.
Phil
Fisher
was
one
those
influencers.
His
book
really
provides
amazing
guidance
for
investors
to
assess
the
potential
value
of
successful
and
profitable
business.
He
teaches
the
reader
how
to
find
growth
opportunities
in
areas
that
many
overlook.
The
book
is
organized
in
a
fun
manner
and
its
fairly
straight
forward
for
anyone
with
a
good
grasp
of
financial
terminology.
This
isnt
one
of
my
personal
favorites,
but
its
a
good
book
and
well
worth
you
time
to
read.
In
this
regard,
however,
Fisher
advises
caution
by
the
bondholder.
If
the
economy
is
good,
the
outstanding
stock
would
outperform
bonds,
and
even
in
the
event
the
economy
goes
south,
this
could
still
work
in
the
favor
of
the
bondholder,
and
is
only
a
temporary
effect
in
any
case.
Adding
the
complex
decision
of
when
to
sell
bonds
and
the
concept
of
inflation,
the
long-term
solution
of
staying
with
stocks
prevails.
The
biggest
opportunities
for
reward
lie
with
finding
companies
that
are
performing
better
than
the
industry
in
terms
of
sales
and
profit.
Size
is
of
less
importance;
the
thing
to
look
for
is
growth
potential
and
the
ability
to
execute.
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Chapter
2:
What
Scuttlebutt
Can
Do
In
this
rather
short
chapter
(originally
only
three
pages),
Fisher
introduces
for
the
first
time
the
Scuttlebutt
Method.
This
method
follows
the
premise
that
the
way
to
gather
information
about
a
company
is
simply
to
speak
to
those
with
the
knowledge.
This
could
be
competitors,
vendors,
customers,
trade
organizations
and
even
former
employees.
Once
this
information
has
been
obtained,
the
truly
outstanding
companies
should
stand
out
clearly,
even
for
the
moderately
experienced
investor.
Chapter
3:
What
to
Buy
The
Fifteen
Points
to
Look
for
in
a
Common
Stock
In
this
chapter,
Fisher
provides
fifteen
points
that
he
encourages
the
investor
to
look
for
before
purchasing
stocks.
Although
the
investor
cant
always
expect
to
find
stocks
that
meet
all
fifteen
points,
and
many
stocks
will
still
prove
profitable
even
if
they
do
not
score
a
high
rating
for
some
of
the
points,
there
is
one
point
that
the
investor
should
always
ensure
is
fulfilled:
if
a
companys
management
does
not
demonstrate
unquestionable
integrity,
the
stock
investor
should
never
consider
buying
into
this
company.
Fisher
outlines
that
the
premise
of
this
book
is
not
to
establish
a
list
of
quantitative
criteria,
as
is
the
case
with
many
other
books
on
common
stock.
He
wants
to
avoid
this,
as
he
is
keen
to
ensure
that
the
decision
to
buy
a
specific
stock
is
not
based
predominantly
on
price,
but
rather
on
the
potential
gain
from
buying
and
holding
that
stock.
For
this
reason,
the
stock
investor
may
sometimes
lack
quantitative
criteria
to
measure
the
fifteen
points
against.
The
most
practical
approach
for
the
stock
investor
is
to
use
the
Scuttlebutt
Method,
simply
because
the
most
valuable
information
about
businesses
cant
always
be
quantified.
Actually,
in
many
situations,
the
stock
investor
will
need
to
find,
calculate
and
compare
the
key
ratios
that
his
research
has
indicated
are
most
relevant.
Some of the general guidelines contained in Fishers fifteen points include investing in companies in which:
If
the
investor
does
not
have
the
time,
inclination
or
skill
to
manage
his
own
investment
portfolio,
he
can
opt
to
enlist
the
services
of
an
investment
advisor
to
guide
him.
In
this
case,
the
investor
must
take
care
to
appoint
an
expert
with
a
proven
track
record
based
on
good
investment
picks,
and
not
an
expert
who
has
taken
higher
or
lower
risks
in
the
stock
market
and
has
simply
been
lucky
with
timing.
He
must
also
ensure
that
the
advisor
has
a
reputation
for
being
honest
and
truthful
at
all
times,
and
has
the
same
fundamental
approach
to
picking
stocks
as
himself.
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Executives).
Fisher
maintains
that
growth
stocks
can
vary
widely
in
size
and
that,
provided
they
are
selected
wisely,
larger
and
more
conservative
growth
stocks
result
in
temporary
losses
for
the
investor
but
will
reward
him
handsomely
over
time.
Typically,
these
companies
also
have
decent
dividend
yields.
Smaller-growth
companies
can
be
even
more
profitable,
but
typically
also
represent
a
higher
risk
in
terms
of
potential
severe
losses.
These
companies
characteristically
reinvest
all
their
capital
into
the
business,
hence
paying
out
no
or
minimal
dividend
payments.
The
small
investor
is
faced
with
a
critical
choice
when
deciding
between
these
two
types
of
growth
stock.
Fisher
personally
prefers
companies
that
pay
little
or
no
dividend
dues,
as
opposed
to
the
higher
returns
somewhere
down
the
linebut
he
also
acknowledges
that
the
small
investor
may
have
a
need
for
current
dividend
income.
What
Fisher
suggests
instead
is
that
the
investor
should
look
for
outstanding
companies
with
temporary
problems.
A
common
example
would
be
a
plant
that
is
lagging
behind
schedule
rather
than
producing
at
full
capacity.
According
to
Fisher,
many
investors
fail
to
see
that
high
expenses
that
are
eating
away
at
profits
in
the
short
run
are
an
inevitable
occurrence,
even
for
outstanding
companies
producing
high-quality,
profitable
products.
Timing
the
purchase
so
that
you
buy
at
a
time
when
many
expenses
are
already
paid
for
and
the
company
is
just
about
to
start
growing
a
profit
has
proven
very
profitable
for
many
stock
investors.
Fisher
encourages
the
investor
to
investigate
thoroughly
to
ensure
that
the
problems
are
indeed
temporary,
however,
since
permanent
problems
will
not
reward
the
investor
in
the
stock
market.
Not
all
good
buying
opportunities
materialize
from
problems,
however.
Fisher
demonstrates
this
with
the
example
of
an
efficiency
upgrade
for
capital-intensive
industries
such
as
the
chemical
industry.
Since
the
majority
of
expenses
have
already
been
incurred,
upgrading
equipment
can
lead
to
a
dramatic
improvement
in
profitability.
Buying
stocks
in
these
companies
before
the
increased
profitability
is
reflected
in
the
financial
statements
is
another
opportunity
for
optimizing
the
timing.
Fisher
addresses
the
question
of
whether
the
stock
investor
should
pay
attention
to
the
overall
level
of
the
stock
market,
or
focus
solely
on
his
individual
stock
pick.
Unless
a
very
rare
event
such
as
the
Great
Depression
is
imminent,
he
should
focus
on
the
latter,
for
two
reasons:
First,
it
is
better
to
invest
based
on
your
knowledge
about
an
outstanding
company
than
a
guess
about
the
overall
stock
market
level;
and,
second,
because
even
in
the
event
of
a
severe
decline,
if
a
stock
pick
has
been
identified
wisely,
the
decline
in
that
stock
price
will
typically
be
less
severe.
Fisher
acknowledges
that
an
investor
might
be
vulnerable
to
the
overall
level
of
the
stock
market
if
he
chooses
to
invest
all
of
his
funds,
even
in
outstanding
companies.
This
is
especially
true
if
he
or
his
advisors
do
not
yet
have
a
proven
track
record
in
making
a
decent
return
in
the
stock
market.
Instead,
Fisher
recommends
exercising
caution
and
encourages
the
investor
to
establish
a
plan
under
which
funds
are
invested
gradually
over
a
period
of
several
years.
In
this
way,
the
investor
will
not
lose
everything
in
the
event
of
a
severe
decline
or
his
advisors
turning
out
to
be
less
than
capable.
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The
uncertainty
of
the
myriad
complex
factors
that
can
influence
the
overall
stock
price
level
prompts
Fisher
to
make
a
concluding
recommendation
about
when
to
buy
stock:
Base
your
investment
decision
on
solid
knowledge
about
the
individual
company.
Disregard
fears
and
hope
about
conjectures,
or
conclusions
based
on
assumptions.
The
second
reason
for
the
investor
to
sell
his
stock
is
if
that
particular
stock
no
longer
meets
the
investment
objectives
outlined
in
Chapters
Two
and
Three;
in
other
words,
your
stocks
are
no
longer
attractive.
There
are
many
reasons
this
could
occur,
but
often
it
is
either
because
the
management
starts
to
deteriorate,
or
simply
because
the
companys
future
prospects
are
no
longer
interesting.
The
third
reason
for
selling
is
if
the
investor
finds
a
better
investment.
Taking
into
consideration
how
difficult
it
is
to
find
truly
attractive
companies,
and
the
potential
capital
gains
tax,
the
investor
needs
to
be
very
certain
before
making
any
such
shift
in
his
portfolio.
Fisher
goes
on
to
say
that
he
frequently
hears
three
arguments
for
investors
selling
their
stocksall
of
which
he
addresses
and
rejects.
The
first
is
that
the
stock
market
is
soon
going
to
decline.
Just
as
it
is
difficult
to
time
your
purchase
based
solely
on
the
general
stock
level,
it
should
be
equally
as
hard,
and
therefore
invalid,
to
base
your
selling
decision
on
the
same
argument.
The
second
frequently
used
argument
is
that
the
single
stock
is
overvaluedtypically
based
on
a
higher
price
to
earnings.
Fisher
does
not
accept
this
argument,
stating
that
superior
businesses
should
be
valuated
at
a
higher
multiple
due
to
the
higher
expected
growth.
Rapid
growth
would
make
the
valuation
of
the
current
earnings
less
important.
Finally,
he
does
not
buy
into
the
argument
that
a
stock
should
be
sold
off
based
solely
on
a
huge
surge
in
price.
A
stock
should
be
based
on
its
current
value,
not
whether
or
not
the
current
pricing
is
much
higher
than
the
initial
investment.
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The
decision
about
dividends
is
further
complicated
by
the
investors
individual
circumstances.
He
might
have
a
personal
need
for
capital,
for
living
expenses,
or
for
additional
investment
in
other
assets.
Simply
based
on
optimizing
each
dollar
for
investment,
Fisher
emphasizes
that
it
is
not
an
easy
task
to
find
truly
outstanding
companies.
A
received
dividend
that
is
invested
in
companies
other
than
the
investors
chosen
outstanding
company
runs
the
risk
of
making
a
lower
returnand
if
the
investor
then
wished
to
reinvest
in
the
current
company,
he
would
have
less
funds
with
which
to
do
so,
since
he
will
have
been
taxed
when
he
initially
received
the
dividend.
Fisher
further
argues
that
the
investor
must
consider
the
regularity
and
dependability
of
dividends.
Well-run
companies
have
official
dividend
policies,
and
the
investor
must
scrutinize
those.
One
suggestion
is
to
look
at
the
payout
ratio
(a
measure
of
how
much
of
the
net
income
is
paid
out
in
dividends);
however,
this
would
leave
the
investor
vulnerable
to
fluctuations
in
the
companys
new
income.
Instead,
the
stock
investor
should
pay
attention
to
the
dividend
rate
(the
absolute
value
of
the
dividend).
He
should
prefer
a
steady
dividend
that
is
paid
out
regularly.
The
management
of
the
company
should
only
decrease
the
payment
in
the
case
of
a
crisis,
and
only
increase
the
rate
if
it
can
be
maintained
and
does
not
sacrifice
a
profitable
growth
option.
The
investor
should
also
not
disregard
a
stock
that
is
traded
over
the
counter.
This
means
that
if
he
finds
the
right
stock,
he
should
not
be
discouraged
by
the
fact
that
it
is
not
publicly
listed.
Finding
an
ethical
broker
will
ensure
both
the
desired
liquidity
and
the
marketability
of
the
unlisted
stock.
Another
dont
for
the
investor
is
to
purchase
stock
based
on
the
positive
tone
of
an
annual
report.
He
must
bear
in
mind
that
the
annual
report
is
geared
towards
creating
a
good
image
in
the
eyes
of
the
shareholder,
and
a
positive
tone
is
no
guarantee
that
the
management
is
competent
and
can
execute
an
ambitious
strategy.
One
mistake
is
so
commonly
made
by
investors
that
Fisher
draws
specific
attention
to
it.
He
gives
the
example
of
a
generic
outstanding
company
that
is
trading
at
a
high
price-to-earnings
ratiotypically
double
the
Dow
Jones
Average.
If
that
company
has
a
positive
outlook
for
the
futuresay
double
the
earnings
in
five
yearsmany
investors
then
make
the
mistake
of
looking
at
the
current
valuation
and
deeming
it
overvalued.
Common-stock
investors
should
acknowledge
that
an
outstanding
company
will
likely
be
valued
at
a
high
price-to-earnings
ratio
now
as
well
as
in
the
future.
The
final
dont
for
the
investor
is
that
he
should
not
quibble
about
quarters
or
eighths;
in
other
words,
when
he
finds
the
right
stock
pick
and
it
is
priced
reasonably,
he
should
go
ahead
and
buy
it
at
the
current
price,
and
not
wait
in
the
hope
that
the
stock
will
drop.
In
this
way,
the
investor
avoids
the
expensive
downside
in
the
event
that
the
stock
never
reaches
a
low
price
againwhich
is
likely
to
happen
for
truly
outstanding
companies.
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Chapter
9:
Five
More
Donts
for
Investors
In
this
chapter,
Fisher
outlines
yet
another
five
donts
for
the
common-stock
investor.
The
first
is
that
he
should
not
go
over
the
top
with
diversification.
Often,
the
stock
investor
buys
too
many
different
stocks
rather
than
too
few,
driven
by
the
fear
of
losing
his
principal.
What
typically
happens
when
you,
as
a
stock
investor,
put
your
eggs
in
too
many
baskets
is
that
you
end
up
investing
in
companies
you
have
very
little
knowledge
about.
This
is
even
more
dangerous
than
inadequate
diversification,
and
is
bad
for
your
return.
Fisher
provides
general
guidelines
for
diversification,
which
basically
state
that
the
bigger
and
more
stable
the
company,
the
less
stocks
you
need
to
hold
in
order
to
be
diversified.
As
an
investor,
you
should
not
be
afraid
to
buy
on
a
war
scare.
In
these
situations,
the
stock
price
declines
and
inflation
increases.
Both
are
good
arguments
to
buy
stocks.
Another
important
thing
to
avoid,
as
an
investor,
is
focusing
on
financial
information
that
is
irrelevant.
The
two
most
typical
examples
are
looking
at
the
stock
prices
and
earnings
per
share
for
stocks
for
the
previous
years,
and
assuming
that
a
similar
development
will
occur.
As
an
investor,
you
are
buying
the
future
cash
flow
of
the
business,
not
the
past,
so
this
type
of
financial
information
should
only
be
seen
as
a
guide,
and
should
never
be
a
deciding
factor
when
considering
a
stock
purchase.
It
would
be
more
useful,
for
example,
to
evaluate
data
on
the
sensitivity
of
cyclicality
for
the
stock.
Remember,
too,
to
consider
time
as
well
as
price
when
buying
a
true
growth
stock.
A
typical
example
arises
when
a
true
outstanding
company
with
reliable
growth
projections
is
located,
but
is
trading
at
a
higher
price
than
the
current
value.
Most
investors
would
hope
for
the
stock
to
increase
in
value,
but
Fisher
suggests
also
considering
whether
the
stock
would
ever
trade
as
low
as
hoped.
It
can
be
better
to
consider
the
timing
of
when
to
buy
the
stock,
as
the
majority
of
the
gain
from
the
stock
is
made
by
holding
it
when
growth
occurs.
Finally,
Fisher
advises
the
investor
not
to
follow
the
crowd
when
it
comes
to
determining
the
value
of
the
stock
market.
This
is
a
very
important
but
also
hard
concept
to
quantify,
since
it
is
a
completely
psychological
and
natural
human
behavior.
Sometimes
the
financial
community
decides
to
take
an
overly
positive
or
negative
view
of
a
particular
stock,
even
though
no
facts
have
changed.
Looking
back
in
history,
these
cycles
occur
for
the
general
stock
market,
separate
industries,
as
well
as
individual
stocks.
The
challenge
for
the
investor
is
to
distinguish
between
the
current
fundamental
trends
that
will
persist
because
something
vital
is
changing,
and
the
fads
of
the
moment.
The
skill
required
in
order
to
make
this
distinction
is
not
easily
acquired.
The
first
of
two
steps
he
practices
is
to
sort
out
the
immensely
high
number
of
potential
companies
to
invest
in
by
speaking
to
competent
investors
with
a
proven
track
record.
The
advantage
of
doing
this
is
that,
through
their
daily
work,
these
experts
already
have
a
valid
opinion
on
the
fifteen
points
that
need
to
be
met
before
purchasing
the
stock.
In
these
discussions,
Fisher
likes
to
investigate
whether
the
company
is
already
in
or
is
steered
in
the
direction
of
unusually
high
sales,
and
whether
the
market
the
company
is
operating
in
is
hard
to
enter
for
competitors.
Discussions
like
these
can
take
a
few
hours.
Click
here
to
be
a
member
of
our
exclusive
mailing
list
(We
send
free
bi-monthly
book
summaries
for
Executives).
The
second
step
comes
into
play
once
a
company
has
been
found
is
a
potentially
interesting
investment
opportunity.
The
investor
should
look
into
the
financial
statements
himself,
in
particular
breaking
down
and
analyzing
the
sales
in
the
income
statements,
and
the
debt
in
the
balance
sheet.
Next,
the
Scuttlebutt
Method
should
be
applied,
and
as
many
people
connected
to
the
company
as
possible
should
be
contacted.
This
provides
another
great
insight
regarding
the
fulfillment
of
the
fifteen
points.
Only
once
at
least
50%
of
the
desired
data
is
collected
should
the
final
stepcontacting
the
management
and
visiting
the
companybe
carried
out.
Finally,
Fisher
concludes
that
the
investor
should
not
see
the
extensive
research
as
an
unreasonable
amount
of
work
and
effort.
He
asks,
In
which
other
line
of
work
could
you
put
up
$10,000
one
year,
and
10
years
later
grow
your
assets
to
$40,000,
to
$150,000
without
any
extra
work?
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