CF Industries Presentation May 2016
CF Industries Presentation May 2016
CF Industries Presentation May 2016
May 4, 2016
NYSE: CF
Note Regarding Non-GAAP Financial Measures
The company reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP).
Management believes that EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net earnings, and adjusted net earnings per share,
which are non-GAAP financial measures, provide additional meaningful information regarding the company's
performance and financial strength. Non-GAAP financial measures should be viewed in addition to, and not as an
alternative for, the company's reported results prepared in accordance with GAAP. In addition, because not all
companies use identical calculations, EBITDA included in this presentation may not be comparable to similarly titled
measures of other companies. Reconciliations of EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net earnings, and adjusted net
earnings per diluted share to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are provided on the tables accompanying
this presentation.
EBITDA is defined as net earnings attributable to common stockholders plus interest expense (income)-net, income
taxes, and depreciation and amortization. Other adjustments include the elimination of loan fee amortization that is
included in both interest and amortization, and the portion of depreciation that is included in noncontrolling interests.
The company has presented EBITDA because management uses the measure to track performance and believes that
it is frequently used by securities analysts, investors and other interested parties in the evaluation of companies in the
industry.
Adjusted EBITDA is defined as EBITDA adjusted with the selected items included in EBITDA as summarized in the
tables accompanying this presentation. The company has presented adjusted EBITDA because management uses
adjusted EBITDA as a supplemental financial measure in the comparison of year-over-year performance.
Adjusted net earnings is defined as net earnings attributable to common stockholders adjusted with the after-tax
impacts of the selected items included in net earnings as summarized in the tables accompanying this presentation.
The company has presented adjusted net earnings and adjusted net earnings per diluted share because management
uses these measures, and believes they are useful to investors, as supplemental financial measures in the comparison
of year-over-year performance.
2
Safe Harbor Statement
All statements in this communication by CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, the Company), other than those relating to historical
facts, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements can generally be identified by their use of terms such as anticipate, believe, could,
estimate, expect, intend, may, plan, predict or project and similar terms and phrases, including references to assumptions. Forward-looking
statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond the
Companys control, which could cause actual results to differ materially from such statements. These statements may include, but are not limited to,
statements about strategic plans and statements about future financial and operating results. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ
materially from those in the forward-looking statements include, among others, the volatility of natural gas prices in North America and Europe; the
cyclical nature of the Companys business and the agricultural sector; the global commodity nature of the Companys fertilizer products, the impact of
global supply and demand on the Companys selling prices, and the intense global competition from other fertilizer producers; conditions in the U.S. and
European agricultural industry; difficulties in securing the supply and delivery of raw materials, increases in their costs or delays or interruptions in their
delivery; reliance on third party providers of transportation services and equipment; the significant risks and hazards involved in producing and handling
the Companys products against which the Company may not be fully insured; risks associated with cyber security; weather conditions; the Companys
ability to complete its production capacity expansion projects on schedule as planned, on budget or at all; risks associated with expansions of the
Companys business, including unanticipated adverse consequences and the significant resources that could be required; potential liabilities and
expenditures related to environmental, health and safety laws and regulations and permitting requirements; future regulatory restrictions and
requirements related to greenhouse gas emissions; the seasonality of the fertilizer business; the impact of changing market conditions on the Companys
forward sales programs; risks involving derivatives and the effectiveness of the Companys risk measurement and hedging activities; the Companys
reliance on a limited number of key facilities; risks associated with the operation or management of the strategic venture with CHS Inc. (the CHS
Strategic Venture); risks and uncertainties relating to the market prices of the fertilizer products that are the subject of the supply agreement with CHS
Inc. over the life of the supply agreement and the risk that any challenges related to the CHS Strategic Venture will harm the Companys other business
relationships; risks associated with the Companys Point Lisas Nitrogen Limited joint venture; acts of terrorism and regulations to combat terrorism; risks
associated with international operations; losses on the Companys investments in securities; deterioration of global market and economic conditions; the
Companys ability to manage its indebtedness; and risks and uncertainties relating to the Companys proposed combination with certain businesses of
OCI N.V. More detailed information about factors that may affect the Companys performance and could cause actual results to differ materially from
those in any forward-looking statements may be found in CF Industries Holdings, Inc.s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including
CF Industries Holdings, Inc.s most recent annual report on Form 10-K, which is available in the Investor Relations section of the Companys web site.
Forward-looking statements are given only as of the date of this communication and the Company disclaims any obligation to update or revise the
forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.
3
First Quarter 2016 Highlights
4
Nitrogen Market Outlook
Overall outlook remains positive, however, new capacity coming on line later
this year is expected to keep nitrogen prices under pressure.
Economics support planted corn area forecast of ~92 million acres, with
possible upside given a positive spring planting outlook and favorable corn-to-
bean economics.
Chinese exports are expected to remain pressured by lower prices in 2016, with
estimates for a full-year rate of ~10 million tonnes, which compares to ~14
million tonnes in 2015.
5
Farm Economics Continue to
Favor Corn Plantings
U.S. Farmer Anticipated Returns U.S. Corn Fertilizer Cost as
Returns above
Percent of Revenue
variable costs
Revenue Percent of
(U.S. Dollar per Acre)
(U.S. Dollar per Acre) Farm Revenue
700 1,200 40%
Corn Corn-on-Corn Soybeans
Revenue Fertilizer Percent Ten-Year Average
600 35%
1,000 Ten-Year Average = 21%
30%
500
800
25%
400
600 20%
300
15%
400
200
10%
100 200
5%
0 0 0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016F
Source: USDA, Green Markets, CME, CF Industries Source: USDA, Green Markets, CF Industries
Calendar Year; As of April 20, 2016 Marketing Year of September 1 August 30
6
Capacity Expansion Update
Donaldsonville
UAN plant began production in early March 2016, producing approximately
95,000 tons through the end of the quarter
Ammonia plant is mechanically complete; pre-commissioning and commissioning
activities taking place
Port Neal
Ammonia and urea plants projected to be mechanically complete by the end of
the second quarter
7
Driving Increased Cash Flow
Capacity Per Share Upside from Potential Future
Buybacks
CF Industries Nitrogen Volumes and Shares Outstanding
Increased cash Shares
Outstanding
flow capacity as (in millions)
Production Capacity (nutrient tons in millions) 2.6 6.2 6.7 7.1 8.1(7)
(1) Excludes 34% of Canadian Fertilizers Limited (CFL) that was owned by Viterra. CFL operations were treated as a consolidated variable interest entity in CF Industries Holdings, Inc. financial statements.
(2) Acquisition of all outstanding interests in CFL that closed on April 30, 2013 and ammonia debottleneck projects that were completed from January 2011 through December 2013.
(3) Acquisition of remaining 50% interest in CF Fertilisers UK from Yara.
(4) Capacity expansion projects at Donaldsonville, LA and Port Neal, IA with anticipated completion of both projects by end of 2016.
(5) Assumes completion of the capacity expansion projects but gives no effect to potential share repurchases.
(6) As of March 31, 2016, the company had 233 million shares outstanding. On June 17, 2015, CF Industries common stock split 5-for-1. All share and per-share data have been adjusted to reflect the stock
split.
(7) Production capacity and nitrogen capacity per 1000 shares adjusted to account for the product tons dedicated to the CHS strategic venture.
8
International Energy Prices Have
Declined Since Mid-2014 Oil prices have declined significantly from around
$115/barrel (Brent Front Month) in June 2014 to a
International Energy Prices by Commodity(1) low near $28/barrel in January 2016, rebounding
20 to approximately $48/barrel recently
~$115/barrel Principal drivers:
18
Tapering of China demand, U.S. supply
~$48/barrel
16 growth (shale), removal of Iran economic
sanctions, and no OPEC supply curtailment
14
response
$ per MMBtu Equivalent
$4.18/MMBtu (NBP)
12 U.S. gas trading independently from oil
1 Year Changes in Price (TTM(1)):
10
Brent Crude: -27%
8 Henry Hub Natural Gas: -16%
6 NBP Natural Gas: -39%
Chinese Anthracite: -10%
4 $115/tonne (Anthracite)
European gas prices U.K. National Balancing
2 Point (NBP) now trading lower than Chinese
$2.18/MMBtu Anthracite MMBtu equivalent
0
Chinese coal prices (Anthracite):
No perceptible response to oil price
changes
Trading range flat around $4.60/MMBtu(2) or
U.S. Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
$115/metric tonne since the beginning of
Crude Oil (Brent Front Month)
2016
European Natural Gas (NBP)
Chinese Anthracite Coal (Mine Mouth Average)
Source: Bloomberg, SX Coal, CF (1) Energy prices updated and converted to USD rates as of 4/29/16
(2) Urea requires approximately 23 MMBtus of natural gas, or 30-35 MMBtus from anthracite coal per short ton
9
North American Production
Costs Remain Well Below Urea Floor
Price Range
The global nitrogen cost
curve reflects differences
in feedstock and logistics
costs
10
Year-Over-Year Change in the
Global Cost Curve
Impacts to costs include:
Depressed hydrocarbon
pricing
Lower contract gas
Historically-low freight
rates
Lower coal prices
Declines in a number of
global currencies
Production capacity of
approximately 1.3 million
tons/month have been added to
the global system since Q1
2015
11
North American Producers Remain
Highly Profitable Illustrative
Urea Price/Production Cost Marginal Ton
In U.S. Dollars Per Ton
Freight/
Loading
$0
North America- North America- Chinese Anthracite
Natural Gas @ Natural Gas @ Producer (High) Source: FERTECON, CRU, Integer, CF
$2.00 (1) $3.00 (2)
(1) North American natural gas cost assumed at an average price of $2.00 per MMBtu based on approximate spot pricing as of 4/19/16.
(2) Assumes a market gas price of $3.00 per MMBtu based on annual averages of NYMEX future contracts between 2016 and 2019, as of 4/19/16.
(3) Cash margin per ton used to illustrate differential between production costs and certain price levels. Does not reflect fixed costs/non-cash operating expenses associated with
production economics, EBITDA, and profitability.
12
13
Financial Highlights
In millions, except percentages, per MMBtu and EPS 2016 Q1 2015 Q1
14
Non-GAAP: Reconciliation of Net Earnings to
EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA
Three months ended March 31,
2016 2015
(in millions)
Net earnings attributable to common stockholders $ 26 $ 231
(1) EBITDA is defined as net earnings attributable to common stockholders plus interest expense (income)-net, income taxes, and depreciation and amortization. Other adjustments include the
elimination of loan fee amortization that is included in both interest and amortization, and the portion of depreciation that is included in non-controlling interests. Adjusted EBITDA is defined as
EBITDA adjusted with the selected items included in EBITDA.
(2) Transaction costs relate to various consulting and legal services associated with executing the strategic agreements pertaining to our proposed combination with certain businesses of OCI and
our strategic venture with CHS.
(3) Loss (gain) on foreign currency transactions primarily relates to foreign currency denominated intercompany debt that has not been permanently invested.
15
Non-GAAP: Reconciliation of Net Earnings
and Net Earnings Per Diluted Share to
Adjusted Net Earnings and Adjusted Net
Earnings Per Diluted Share Three months ended March 31,
2016 2015
After-tax EPS After-tax EPS
amounts Impact amounts Impact
Net earnings / net earnings per diluted share attributable to common stockholders $ 26 $0.11 $ 231 $0.96
Adjusted net earnings / adjusted net earnings per diluted share (4) $ 95 $0.40 $ 220 $0.91
(1) For the three months ended March 31, 2016 and 2015, unrealized mark-to-market loss (gain) on natural gas derivatives is presented net of tax of $8 million and $(10) million, respectively; expansion
project expenses are presented net of tax of $6 million and $3 million, respectively; and (gain) loss on foreign currency derivatives is presented net of tax of $(1) million and $9 million, respectively. For
each of these tax effects, the rate used for the three months ended March 31, 2016 and 2015 was 37.2% and 37.0%, respectively, which represented the company's blended deferred tax rates for
each respective period.
(2) Transaction costs have no tax effect because these items are not tax deductible.
(3) Loss (gain) on foreign currency transactions is presented net of tax of $11 million and $(7) million for the three months ended March 31, 2016 and 2015, respectively. The tax effect is calculated at the
blended deferred tax rate of primarily 25.0% and 37.0% for the three months ended March 31, 2016 and 2015, respectively.
(4) Adjusted net earnings is defined as net earnings attributable to common stockholders adjusted with the after-tax impacts of the selected items included in net earnings.
16
Donaldsonville Expansion
Site Overview
Urea Warehouse
90K Tons
UAN Ammonia
Urea Barge
Dock Tank 3,640 TPD
50K Tons Ammonia
Tank
30K Tons
Urea UAN
3,850 TPD 5,050 TPD
17
Donaldsonville Expansion
Operating Urea Plant
Urea Melt
Granulation Area
Urea Granulation Urea Melt
Urea Melt
UreaUrea Granulation
Granulation Urea Melt
Urea Melt
Urea Granulation
18
Donaldsonville Expansion
Fully operational Nitric Acid/UAN and Offsites
UAN
Nitric Acid
UAN
Nitric Cooling
Acid Tower Cooling Tower
CO2
UAN
Compressor Nitric Acid Cooling Tower
CO2CO2
Compressor
Compressor Package
CO2 Boiler Package
Compressor Package Boiler
Boiler Package Boiler
CO2 Compression
19
Donaldsonville Expansion
Ammonia Plant
UAN
Nitric Acid
Cooling Tower
CO2
UAN
Compressor Nitric Acid Cooling Tower
CO2
Compressor
CO2 Package
Compressor Package Boiler
Boiler Package Boiler
CO2 Compression
20
Port Neal Expansion
Ammonia Plant
21
Port Neal Expansion
Urea Plant- Granulation
22
Port Neal Expansion
Urea Warehouse Interior
23